bthebest
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QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Wed Nov 14, 2012 3:29 pm

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...ps-a350-800-for-larger-900-378997/

After the Afriqiyah Airways order/switch a couple of days ago there is a serious possibility the A350-800 could be heading the same way as the 787-3.

US and Aeroflot now hold the largest orders with 18 a piece.
 
sweair
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Wed Nov 14, 2012 3:37 pm

Its hard to see the use of the A358 over the A359.
 
scouseflyer
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Wed Nov 14, 2012 3:42 pm

I think that it's likely to end up like the A388F which never officially cancelled just "delayed indefinitely" but this will simplify the build process for A now as the A358 will gradually fade and more resources can go on the A359.

I'd imagine that the possibility of some sort of A330neo might be stronger eventually though as without the A358 there's a big gap between the A321 and A359
 
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PM
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Wed Nov 14, 2012 3:45 pm

Fascinating. The exit of the -800 seems only a matter of time. No problem. The -900 is a winner and I'm among those who believe that the -1000 is gaining traction.
 
sweair
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Wed Nov 14, 2012 3:47 pm

Quoting scouseflyer (Reply 2):

I'd imagine that the possibility of some sort of A330neo might be stronger eventually though as without the A358 there's a big gap between the A321 and A359

Exactly my thinking too, a A330neo gets more realistic with any defection from the 800 backlog. The A358 is the least optimized model of that family, this is the downside of trying to cover your competitors 2 families with one family.
 
qf002
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Wed Nov 14, 2012 3:48 pm

Not a surprise.

I'd put money on Airbus canning the A358. It's happened before in this size bracket with the 777-100, and A330-100.

[Edited 2012-11-14 07:48:54]
 
airbazar
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Wed Nov 14, 2012 3:53 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 4):
Exactly my thinking too, a A330neo gets more realistic with any defection from the 800 backlog.

I was going to agree with this but I often forget that NEO stands for "New Engine Option".
As has been mentioned before, I don't see any engine manufacturer signing up for this project.
What I do see is Airbus embarking on a improvement project for the A330 that does not require a new engine.
 
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817Dreamliiner
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Wed Nov 14, 2012 3:54 pm

Quoting qf002 (Reply 5):
I'd put money on Airbus canning the A358.

Well I wouldnt say so yet, they still have a good amount on the books, 92 as stated by the FG article. If we see more conversions to the -900/-1000 then I guess it will be considered dead then...
Please let me know... If you know this is the end of the world, Let me know... If you know the truth...
 
sweair
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Wed Nov 14, 2012 3:57 pm

Quoting airbazar (Reply 6):

They could always go for the GEnx if it could be uprated in thrust. That is an engine in service and has quite good SFC compared to the current A330 engine. A 748 sort of update of the A330? Could be doable if the A358 gets cut
 
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BoeingVista
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Wed Nov 14, 2012 4:05 pm

Quoting scouseflyer (Reply 2):
I'd imagine that the possibility of some sort of A330neo might be stronger eventually though as without the A358 there's a big gap between the A321 and A359

Yup, A330NEO and throw a A350-1100 into the mix when Boeing decide to launch the 777-9.
BV
 
sweair
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Wed Nov 14, 2012 4:17 pm

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 9):

Yeah I wonder if its better to grow the A350 upwards than it was to shrink it, probably better to do a 777-9X sized frame while they are at it. The engines could be of the same thrust class that the 777-X has on its list.

The A330neo could cover the lower market. GEnx2b engines should be about 13% more efficient than the CF6.
 
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Stitch
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Wed Nov 14, 2012 4:17 pm

There is not going to be an A330neo.

Airbus will follow Boeing's game plan with the 767 and sell it mostly as a freighter and military tanker/transport with top-up passenger frame orders to existing customers or to new customers who can't wait for or afford a 787-8.

The saving grace for the A350-800 is that all Airbus needs to do is tweak the vertical stabilizer to account for the smaller moment arm of the shortened fuselage. So Airbus effectively has all the engineering work done already and therefore they do not need to cancel it or defer it for resources to commit to the A350-1000.

So I expect Airbus to continue to offer it, even if all the current customers convert orders to the A350-900.
 
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frigatebird
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Wed Nov 14, 2012 4:47 pm

With QR dropping the A358, it wouldn't surprise me to see a 787-9 order, they still have 30 options and even appear to be interested in the 787-10X.

Quoting Bthebest (Thread starter):
US and Aeroflot now hold the largest orders with 18 a piece.

I really wonder why SU still hangs on to the A358. They also have 789s on order, the A359 seems far more logical for SU than the -800.

US and HA probably don't want to switch to the -900, it's too big. If Airbus cancels the A358 I expect US and HA to be very tempted to switch to 787s.

Quoting PM (Reply 3):
The -900 is a winner and I'm among those who believe that the -1000 is gaining traction.

  
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NYC777
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Wed Nov 14, 2012 4:53 pm

These guys at Strategic Aero have been predicting the demise of the A350-800. Looks like they're closer to being right.

http://www.strategicaeroresearch.com/2012/06/05/airbusa350xwb/
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
airbazar
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Wed Nov 14, 2012 5:25 pm

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 12):
US and HA probably don't want to switch to the -900, it's too big. If Airbus cancels the A358 I expect US and HA to be very tempted to switch to 787s.

Aren't both US and HA's orders being financed by Airbus? I'd say that if Airbus wants to can the A358 their orders are as good as gone.
 
WarpSpeed
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Wed Nov 14, 2012 6:45 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 11):
they do not need to cancel it or defer it for resources to commit to the A350-1000.

However, might Airbus defer the -800 so they can bring forward the EIS of the A350-1000?
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KarelXWB
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Wed Nov 14, 2012 6:46 pm

I agree with Stitch.

There are still about 90 orders left for the -800. Looking at the small amount of work Airbus has to accomplish to certificate the -800, I don't see it getting canceled.

And there are more rumours:

Quote:
Source tells me Qatar Airways is intending to take more #Airbus A350-1000s as well as -900s, as part of -800 order conversion.
http://twitter.com/FlightDKM/status/268785502805692417
Close, but no cigar http://vine.co/v/OjqeYWWpVWK
 
sweair
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Wed Nov 14, 2012 7:56 pm

I think there is more value in growing that frame than shrinking it, it is too big to be a good A332 replacement. 900/1000 and a 1100 model would sell better IMO. Do a 748ish neo of the A330 on the lower end.
 
hmelawyer
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Wed Nov 14, 2012 8:47 pm

I don't see the A330NEO being competitive enough to warrant the investment. With the more modest improvements upcoming, I agree with earlier posters that the 330 should still be able to get some occasional orders like the 767 has and it should be allowed to gracefully wind down. If the 350-800 goes away, which I am starting to think as a possibility has inched across the 50% likelihood line, Airbus should really start thinking about launching an A360 (mid-size, mid-range frame) program in the middle of this decade for approx. EIS 2022. This would eliminate the current gap in the product line, and if done correctly not be a direct compete against the 787. The frame should be optimized around 5000 nm, 190-240 passengers, with an ER version to later follow that could stretch out to 7000 nm.

This would primarily go after the replacement market for 762, 763, 332, and even longer 757 routes. While those markets appear to be pinched based on recent ordering (and retirement) patterns favoring the larger 333 and 787 frames, that is in large part due to the fact that the larger frames can now give relatively equivalent trip costs with more revenue capacity. However, applying new technologies without the constraints of allowing for long range operations (as the 787 and 350 provide) the new A360 frame should be able to lower trip costs and, therefore, CASM, to a point where if the route does not support the need for larger capacity the better financial option is to go with the smaller/more optimized frame. The new plane is likely to meet the needs of any customers that would still be on the order books for a 358 and a delay of a couple of years may not hurt Airbus that much because customers may not have any other options (assuming by that point 787 backlog will have reached a point of being roughly similar to 360 EIS)

By mid-late decade Airbus should have plenty of resources to launch a new program. The 350 and 320 NEO will be in or moving to production status, narrowbody replacement has been pushed out, and all other parts of the product catalog will be fully competitive and not needing anymore attention than regular updates. Boeing will have its plate full with 777X to respond to 350, and finishing up 737MAX, so probably could not immediately respond (not to mention the fact that given the size of the 787, Boeing will probably have to respond to this segment from below with the 737 replacement which is pushed due to the MAX).

These are just my musings, but would love to hear viewpoints if I am not seeing this clearly. Better for Airbus to steal a whole market segment than trying to force a frame that nearly no one seems to want.
 
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Stitch
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Wed Nov 14, 2012 9:02 pm

Quoting Hmelawyer (Reply 18):
These are just my musings, but would love to hear viewpoints if I am not seeing this clearly.

Airlines have clearly decided that they're willing to accept more capability than they need if the trade-offs are acceptable.

Boeing launched the 7E7 sized around the 767 and A330 because they didn't want to impact the 777. In negotiations with airlines, they wanted larger planes with greater ranges because doing so didn't significantly increase trip costs while decreasing CASM.

We've also seen Airbus push the performance of the A330 family to keep it competitive with the greater performance of the 787 and Airbus has also had to improve the A350-1000's performance to close the gap to the 777-300ER even though the A350 offers much better operating economics.

So I just don't see much of a market for a widebody twin sized around the A300-600 / 767-300ER. The 787 and A350 will offer more capacity and capability and even if their trip costs are lower, so will the CASM and I believe that too few airlines could take advantage of it to make it worth the effort.
 
hmelawyer
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Wed Nov 14, 2012 9:11 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 19):
Airlines have clearly decided that they're willing to accept more capability than they need if the trade-offs are acceptable.

Boeing launched the 7E7 sized around the 767 and A330 because they didn't want to impact the 777. In negotiations with airlines, they wanted larger planes with greater ranges because doing so didn't significantly increase trip costs while decreasing CASM.

I totally agree. However, my thought is that technological changes between the launch of 7E7 and when the new frame would launch (approx. 15 years) have made it such that a properly optimized plane could significantly reduce the trip costs such that the 787 would have a higher CASM than the new plane, to an extent that the trade-offs were so acceptable. Is the issue that the technology isn't there for that to happen? I totally understand why your point has been correct in recent times, but its seems that there should be a shift at some point that allows airlines to right size again at a financial advantage.
 
sweair
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Wed Nov 14, 2012 9:26 pm

If no A358 is sold the gap between A321 and A359 is huge! Certainly there is room for an optimized frame in that space, if not Airbus would give up a lot of market for Boeing to grab.
 
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Stitch
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Wed Nov 14, 2012 9:39 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 21):
If no A358 is sold the gap between A321 and A359 is huge! Certainly there is room for an optimized frame in that space, if not Airbus would give up a lot of market for Boeing to grab.

Boeing's doing just fine with a large gap between the 737-900ER and 787-8 while producing a dozen to a score of 767's a year.

Airbus have done very well with the A330-200 over the life of the program and freighter and military sales will support a production rate of a couple a month for some time, I imagine. So they should do fine, as well.

[Edited 2012-11-14 13:42:19]
 
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EPA001
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:41 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 3):
Fascinating. The exit of the -800 seems only a matter of time. No problem. The -900 is a winner and I'm among those who believe that the -1000 is gaining traction.

Regarding the -1000 I am in that "camp" too!  . I am not sure they will cancel the -800. Especially in the light of what Stitch is saying:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 11):
The saving grace for the A350-800 is that all Airbus needs to do is tweak the vertical stabilizer to account for the smaller moment arm of the shortened fuselage. So Airbus effectively has all the engineering work done already and therefore they do not need to cancel it or defer it for resources to commit to the A350-1000.

This puts the -800 development in another daylight. So it seems the -800 is hardly a big development and could be easily derived from the -900 version.  .

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 16):
And there are more rumours:

Quote:
Source tells me Qatar Airways is intending to take more #Airbus A350-1000s as well as -900s, as part of -800 order conversion.
http://twitter.com/FlightDKM/status/...92417

More and more airlines are starting to show their interest in the-1000 version of the A350-XWB. As predicted, now the market becomes more clear, and the delivery time starts to become overseeable, it is gaining more and more traction from blue chip airlines. And just recently here on A-net many were still calling the plane a dog. Things can change over time.........  
 
CM
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Thu Nov 15, 2012 12:29 am

In one sense, pressure on the A350-800 is reduced when people like Al Bakar vacate their interest in the model. I am sure Airbus feels the order struggles of the A358 keenly, but I actually see this a positive for the A350 program and future of the A350-800. Here's why:

Airbus' original plan was to introduce the three models (A359, A358, and A351) in rapid succession, each about 1 year after the preceding model. This aggressive scheduling meant there was not time in the development plan to let the A358 design loads benefit from flight loads survey on the A359, as A358 parts would be fully sized and possibly even entering production before Airbus would have A359 flight loads survey data available. Airbus acknowledged the A358 would be developed as a "simple shrink" of the A359, and has been beat up pretty soundly for that original program strategy.

Since the original plan was laid out in 2007, a few important things have happened to the A350 program:

1. The A351 and A358 have swapped order.
2. The schedule for successor models to the A359 has been made less aggressive
3. The majority of the A358 order book has evaporated

I am convinced the A358 will be built, but I expect to see it completely redefined first. I believe Airbus will revise the program schedule one more time in order to permit the A358 to be developed as a fully optimized minor model of the A350 family.

The alternatives to this (as has been noted in posts above) is to compete in the market space between the A321 and the A359 with...

1. An incrementally improved A330 (will slowly become like the 767 has been versus the A330 over the next 6-7 years)
2. A non-optimized A358 (already tried and not successful to-date)
3. A re-engined A330neo (the finished product would still fall short of the 787 and likely more costly than optimizing the A358)

Since Airbus really needs to look at how they will compete in this space for the next 30 years, alternatives to a fully optimized A358 all seem like poor choices to me. I expect to eventually see a refined A358 offered with an EIS in the 2019 timeframe.
 
ferpe
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Thu Nov 15, 2012 5:28 am

Quoting CM (Reply 24):
I expect to eventually see a refined A358 offered with an EIS in the 2019 timeframe.

Didider Evrard has in the last month said Airbus would like the -1000 and -800 to swap order. Now what technique can Airbus use to keep those happy who have early -800 slots, those Airlines have already suffered about 2 years delay to their plans and would suffer another 2-3 years, that is a lot and they can claim substantial compensation money. Of course they would get very attractive -900 offers but what other tricks are there in Lehays sleeves?
Non French in France
 
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lightsaber
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Thu Nov 15, 2012 5:40 am

First: I'm a HUGE fan of the A359 and A350-1000, so read my comments below understanding that.

Quoting Bthebest (Thread starter):
After the Afriqiyah Airways order/switch a couple of days ago there is a serious possibility the A350-800 could be heading the same way as the 787-3.

Agreed. There will be little to know resale value of the A358. It will be the 762ER... Nice idea, but may I have a 763ER please.

Quoting sweair (Reply 1):
Its hard to see the use of the A358 over the A359.

I haven't really found a niche a higher MTOW A359 wouldn't fill. There isn't a real cost per flight advantage for the A358.

Quoting scouseflyer (Reply 2):
I think that it's likely to end up like the A388F which never officially cancelled just "delayed indefinitely" but this will simplify the build process for A now as the A358 will gradually fade and more resources can go on the A359.

I think it will be outright cancelled.

Quoting scouseflyer (Reply 2):
I'd imagine that the possibility of some sort of A330neo might be stronger eventually though as without the A358 there's a big gap between the A321 and A359

Or Airbus lives with the gap. I simply see no business case for an airline to buy the A358 after the first A359 MTOW improvement. Why does't Airbus fun that enhancement instead?

Quoting Stitch (Reply 11):
The saving grace for the A350-800 is that all Airbus needs to do is tweak the vertical stabilizer to account for the smaller moment arm of the shortened fuselage.

I agree the engineering is simple. The flight testing will cost a bit, but that isn't the issue. The issue is an airframe with poor residual value and the burned leasing companies. I believe the A358 will be canned to keep Airbus from having another plane with a poor aftermarket a la the A345/A346 and A318. Its not the engineering, but the confidence of the financing community that Airbus needs to be concerned about.

Lightsaber
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ferpe
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Thu Nov 15, 2012 6:05 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 26):
I believe the A358 will be canned to keep Airbus from having another plane with a poor aftermarket a la the A345/A346 and A318. Its not the engineering, but the confidence of the financing community that Airbus needs to be concerned about.

I think CMs reasoning is very interesting, if you can gain the benefit of coming after both the -900 (flight loads) and the -1000 (engine improvements) you can probably lower the OEW to be just a tad heavier then the 789 instead of being around the 40 pax larger 7810 and you would gain another 3% in TSFC. If I put this in my model the -800 would be a long and thin route replacement for the 777-200LR with a fuel burn per seat and nm of the 789. On a trip equal in length to the 789 it would burn 5% less fuel per seat.

In fairness I should put the T1000-TEN on the 789 which would lower the 358 advantage to some 3% and the 789 has more cargo space. But the -800 would be competitive on cost on 789 routes with that 1200nm extra range as an upside and it's unique feature to claim it's space in the market. One can argue there is no market for these 18 hour frames, well the 358 would burn a whopping 40% less fuel per seat and nm then the 777-200LR so I think that would make some new ULH routes feasible.

[Edited 2012-11-14 23:08:07]
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BoeingVista
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Thu Nov 15, 2012 7:31 am

Quoting CM (Reply 24):
3. A re-engined A330neo (the finished product would still fall short of the 787 and likely more costly than optimizing the A358)

I do not really agree with either of these points, when you factor in purchase cost the A330neo will be using an engine 8 years younger that the 787 it may be quite competitive with the 787 series. Killing the A358 and selling slots off as A359, A3510 will make Airbus far more than it costs to develop a A330neo, if the engine weight remains constant there really isn't really that much to do structurally.
BV
 
ferpe
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Thu Nov 15, 2012 7:39 am

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 28):
if the engine weight remains constant there really isn't really that much to do structurally.

This is your problem, you can't have an engine weight like a Trent 700 (4800kg) and a TSFC like a T1000-TEN (-10%) for nothing. The latter weighs some 1t+ more without the larger nacelle, further you would need to find place for a fan/nacelle which has some 15 inch larger diameter. You would easily look at 3-4t more OEW just for the engine swap.
Non French in France
 
RickNRoll
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Thu Nov 15, 2012 7:58 am

The A330 wing has been built to be strong enough to carry four engines.
 
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BoeingVista
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Thu Nov 15, 2012 8:27 am

Quoting ferpe (Reply 29):
This is your problem, you can't have an engine weight like a Trent 700 (4800kg) and a TSFC like a T1000-TEN (-10%) for nothing. The latter weighs some 1t+ more without the larger nacelle, further you would need to find place for a fan/nacelle which has some 15 inch larger diameter. You would easily look at 3-4t more OEW just for the engine swap.

Yet again I don't agree. Modern materials are lighter and if RR moved from a titanium fan to a composite fan they would save about 500kg per engine/nacelle.

Also doesn't the T1000 have a whole bunch of electrics hung onto it that a bleed engine doesn't need?
BV
 
RubberJungle
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Thu Nov 15, 2012 8:49 am

More on the conversion and the possibility of -1000s:

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...pped-to-include-more-1000s-379015/
 
JerseyFlyer
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Thu Nov 15, 2012 9:23 am

As QR were to take the first A358 deliveries, there is likely to be a deferral of EIS, even if only by default.

I am sure Airbus would prefer to devote all spare resources to getting A3510 EIS as early as possible, and Leahy hinted recently that it might be brought forward.

This will create some space to re-think / optimise / decide formally to cancel the 358,
 
sweair
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Thu Nov 15, 2012 9:31 am

What is wrong with the 748 engine, it is a bleed version of the GEnx? 13% more efficient than the CF6 it replaced? Too heavy? This engine will get a PIP maybe a thrust boost and could be further enhanced. There is no Trent1000 bleed engine in the market, it would have a much longer way to market.

Give GE a call for the 2B model and say they need 72K thrust, that would add some booster stages like the 1B got.
 
ferpe
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Thu Nov 15, 2012 9:34 am

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 31):
Also doesn't the T1000 have a whole bunch of electrics hung onto it that a bleed engine doesn't need?

Nope, and the T1000 is designed with the Ti fan, this is something you don't change easily. CFRP is already available in the 70klbf segment with the GEnx but it still weighs 1t more then the T700 (the most popular 333 engine). So CFRP is there and you are still 1t up per engine less nacelle, pylon and wing reinforcements. Even though the 330 wing share structure with the 340 it did not hang a 5.8t engine on those positions, it was 4.8 or less. You would need to increase the torsional stiffness of the wing to cope, it increases the stress with 20%.
Non French in France
 
ferpe
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Thu Nov 15, 2012 9:41 am

Quoting sweair (Reply 34):
Give GE a call for the 2B model and say they need 72K thrust, that would add some booster stages like the 1B got.

The GEnx-2B is the most suitable replacement for the T700/CF6-80E but it is still some 7 to 12 inches larger then these engines and 0.8t heavier, so not big gain on your reinforcements. You also need to bump the power some 5klbf.
Non French in France
 
StickShaker
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Thu Nov 15, 2012 9:42 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 11):
The saving grace for the A350-800 is that all Airbus needs to do is tweak the vertical stabilizer to account for the smaller moment arm of the shortened fuselage. So Airbus effectively has all the engineering work done already and therefore they do not need to cancel it or defer it for resources to commit to the A350-1000.
Quoting CM (Reply 24):
I am convinced the A358 will be built, but I expect to see it completely redefined first. I believe Airbus will revise the program schedule one more time in order to permit the A358 to be developed as a fully optimized minor model of the A350 family.
Quoting CM (Reply 24):
Since Airbus really needs to look at how they will compete in this space for the next 30 years, alternatives to a fully optimized A358 all seem like poor choices to me.

Can someone enlighten us as to how much more complex the engineering challenges would be to fully optimise the A358 as opposed to just modifying the vertical stabiliser for a staight shrink.

In terms of where Airbus sink their R&D dollars I suspect they will also be thinking ahead as to how to counter the 787-10.


Regards,
StickShaker
 
bthebest
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Thu Nov 15, 2012 9:43 am

On a slight tangent - what's the ICAO designator for the A350-1000 going to be? A35X? A351?
 
sweair
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Thu Nov 15, 2012 9:50 am

Quoting ferpe (Reply 36):
You also need to bump the power some 5klbf.

There was an article about the 748 linked the other day and it said the 748 is getting more thrust for hot and high performance, so that engine has some margin in thrust. The somewhat larger 1B model is aiming for 76-78K thrust for the 7810 model.
 
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BoeingVista
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Thu Nov 15, 2012 10:15 am

Quoting ferpe (Reply 35):
Nope, and the T1000 is designed with the Ti fan, this is something you don't change easily. CFRP is already available in the 70klbf segment with the GEnx but it still weighs 1t more then the T700 (the most popular 333 engine). So CFRP is there and you are still 1t up per engine less nacelle, pylon and wing reinforcements. Even though the 330 wing share structure with the 340 it did not hang a 5.8t engine on those positions, it was 4.8 or less. You would need to increase the torsional stiffness of the wing to cope, it increases the stress with 20%.

I feel that you are missing the point... GE won't gain from a carbon fan as they already have it but the T700 can. GE have used the weight somewhere else whereas RR has had to make weight savings because it still has a Ti fan so it would gain.

RR could increase the size of the fan convert it to carbon fibre and still be ahead on weight.
BV
 
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Thu Nov 15, 2012 10:30 am

Quoting WarpSpeed (Reply 15):
However, might Airbus defer the -800 so they can bring forward the EIS of the A350-1000?

From a purely sales point of view, it would make sense to swap EIS of both models. But there is (very) high engineering risk in doing that, because the A358 is a copy-paste straight shrink whereas the A351 is getting a lot of specific features. I don't think Airbus can realistically EIS the A351 any earlier.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 11):
The saving grace for the A350-800 is that all Airbus needs to do is tweak the vertical stabilizer to account for the smaller moment arm of the shortened fuselage. So Airbus effectively has all the engineering work done already and therefore they do not need to cancel it or defer it for resources to commit to the A350-1000.

This is the indeed the main factor working in favor of the A358, Airbus can always offer it for a very low incremental cost. But that is also the main factor hurting its sales, as being a non-optimized frame it will remain a niche model - it could be a good ULH plane, probably get some VIP sales too, but no more.

In any case, the current status quo is not acceptable IMO, Airbus has to truly adress the huge gap between the A321 and the A359 with an optimized model - be it an optimized A358 or an A330NEO, which I still don't rule out. Otherwise that market will belong exclusively to the 788, as the pax A330 will eventually enter a 767-like production rate and the A358 would be a niche product.
 
sweair
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Thu Nov 15, 2012 10:42 am

Quoting r2rho (Reply 41):
Airbus has to truly adress the huge gap between the A321 and the A359 with an optimized model - be it an optimized A358 or an A330NEO, which I still don't rule out. Otherwise that market will belong exclusively to the 788, as the pax A330 will eventually enter a 767-like production rate and the A358 would be a niche product.

My old A322 idea seems the obvious answer here, invest some in the A321 frame, do a real 757 replacement frame of the A321. New wings, engines and UC. A middle size NB 50% of the OEW of the 788 and up to 240 seats. Could beat the snot out of any WB on the lower end of these routes. And Stitch would have to eat humble pie  
 
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Thu Nov 15, 2012 10:44 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 11):
The saving grace for the A350-800 is that all Airbus needs to do is tweak the vertical stabilizer to account for the smaller moment arm of the shortened fuselage.

Then complete a 6 month test campaign write up the certification documentation... Not small jobs
BV
 
parapente
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Thu Nov 15, 2012 11:44 am

Reply 2.
there's a big gap between the A321 and A359

Yes and much bigger than the gap between the 739MAX and the 788. And that is the critical difference.

It may well be worth Airbus dusting off the A322 work for yesteryear and applying it to the NEO.It won't bridge the bap completely but it will help.

Re the 332/3 As people have stated Airbus is not going to re engine they have said so. But they may (as they have said) tweek the wing. They have knowledge from their AWAITOR programme.They have also stated that their knowledge from the new blended sharklets could be applied to the 330 wing, I would imagine that they would do this plus look for one final set of improvements to the existing engines.

Further down the line they will need to consider this whole market area. Either with a re winged 350 (a la 310 programme) or a completely new aircraft.
 
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Thu Nov 15, 2012 1:46 pm

Quoting StickShaker (Reply 37):
Quoting CM (Reply 24):
Since Airbus really needs to look at how they will compete in this space for the next 30 years, alternatives to a fully optimized A358 all seem like poor choices to me.

Can someone enlighten us as to how much more complex the engineering challenges would be to fully optimise the A358 as opposed to just modifying the vertical stabiliser for a staight shrink.

IMO CM is right and StickShaker asked the right question.

I would not be suprised, if Airbus one day, less than 10 years ahead, would launch a A350 version that would be optimized on the size and range of roughly the today A330. Sort of the inverse, that they did to create the A330 from the A300.

Such an A350 could get somewhat smaller wings, restructured gears, new engines, but keep the fuselage cross section and the tail. This obviously would require much effort (but still less than e.g. for the 77X just to get a feeling about the dimensions), but matching whatever the 787 offers seems like a compelling business case to me.

Such an A350-downgrade would require Boeing's attention about the same as a comparable 787-upgrade (to match 77W) would require Airbus' attention...

A A330NEO would play into Boeings hands about the same as the 77X would play into Airbus' hands...
 
airbazar
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Thu Nov 15, 2012 2:09 pm

Quoting rheinwaldner (Reply 45):
Such an A350 could get somewhat smaller wings, restructured gears, new engines, but keep the fuselage cross section and the tail.

So, an A350 LITE? Where have I heard that name before? 
I'm not disagreeing though.
 
mffoda
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Thu Nov 15, 2012 2:27 pm

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 43):
Quoting Stitch (Reply 11):
The saving grace for the A350-800 is that all Airbus needs to do is tweak the vertical stabilizer to account for the smaller moment arm of the shortened fuselage.

Then complete a 6 month test campaign write up the certification documentation... Not small jobs

That additional time frame and certification documentation would pail in comparison to doing a A330 neo.

Airbus is already on record as saying that doing a A330 neo would be far more complex then the A320 neo.

To my knowledge there have been no requests to the engine manufacturers for a suitable replacement engine? So you are looking at 6-8 year development cycle? (the LEAP program was started in 2008 for example.) With a EIS of 2019/20 the A330 neo makes little sense to me.

As sweair suggested above, A modified GEnx-2B would likely be the only real choice if one needed the engine in 3-4 years (a guess?). You seem keen on this engine being form RR?? Maybe our engine guy's can provide more info, but it looks like alot more work to convert a T-1000 then the GEnx-2B?

I just don't see a A330 neo on way...
harder than woodpecker lips...
 
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Thu Nov 15, 2012 3:10 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 4):
a A330neo gets more realistic with any defection from the 800 backlog. The A358 is the least optimized model of that family, this is the downside of trying to cover your competitors 2 families with one family.

Airbus tried to avoid a head on contest with either 787 or 777, didn't they? They pitched their design between the 2 different aircraft.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 6):
What I do see is Airbus embarking on a improvement project for the A330 that does not require a new engine.

PIP's to bring the A330 within a few percent of A330NEO suffice to keep orders coming in (commonality advantages, competivity over short ranges, relatively quick delivery).

Quoting Hmelawyer (Reply 18):
I don't see the A330NEO being competitive enough to warrant the investment. With the more modest improvements upcoming, I agree with earlier posters that the 330 should still be able to get some occasional orders like the 767 has and it should be allowed to gracefully wind down.

With development costs long amorticised, Airbus can offer A330 where its price/performance/availabilty make it attractive enough to keep a customer in the Airbus camp.
 
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RE: QR Switch A350 Order To -900, -800 To Be Dropped?

Thu Nov 15, 2012 3:23 pm

Quoting mffoda (Reply 47):
As sweair suggested above, A modified GEnx-2B would likely be the only real choice if one needed the engine in 3-4 years (a guess?). You seem keen on this engine being form RR?? Maybe our engine guy's can provide more info, but it looks like alot more work to convert a T-1000 then the GEnx-2B?

I think that the weight problem could be more easily solved with an engine from RR, and solving the weight issue solves a lot of wing strengthening issues. The problem for RR as you imply is that their 'next gen' medium fan the T1000 is bleedless so not really suitable for an A330neo application where as the -2B could be but the extra weight causes issues. I don't think that the development cycle for a standard turbofan engine would be as long as for the GTF but no, there is no suitable engine for the A330neo as we stand today.

A simple re-fanning of the T700 and increasing bypass ratio would give you a fair few percent gain but I'm sure that Lightsaber will say that you would have to rebuild the whole thing if you refan it.
BV