prizeframe
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Sun Nov 18, 2012 4:37 pm

Hey!

Researching the pilot job market right now as a student.
Do you think/know if the pilot job market is going to boom? For what types of pilots?
I saw two articles stating just that and I'd like to learn more about the subject - if it's true or not.
If there's anything that points to the opposite, and sources on that would be great.

Is Boeings predictions valid?

Is there any number or estimation on if it there's a lot of unemployed pilots? If not, you think it's a big number or just a small amount?

I value your views and would be awesome to get more educated about this.

http://www.airforcetimes.com/news/20...mercial-pilot-market-boom-072211w/

and

http://travel.usatoday.com/flights/s...line-pilots-set-to-soar/48661596/1

and

http://www.planetalkinglive.com/2012...and-airline-pilot-technician-jobs/
 
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Acey559
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Sun Nov 18, 2012 4:48 pm

The consensus among many is that with the upcoming flight time requirements, new duty rigs and large numbers of retirements, it will create the need for pilots. The major airlines though will not have a shortage however, because of the number of qualified applicants from the regional and (to a lesser extent) corporate ranks. The regional airlines will feel the strain from this, and some already have. My airline is desperately trying to hire and can't find more than a handful, and it will only get worse as time goes on. Once the major airlines begin to hire in earnest, it will get interesting. Hopefully this will cause pay and work rules to improve in order to attract new applicants, though I'm not holding my breath for that.
 
tdscanuck
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Sun Nov 18, 2012 4:56 pm

Quoting prizeframe (Thread starter):
Do you think/know if the pilot job market is going to boom? For what types of pilots?

The demand is going to boom for ATP's. That may nor may not turn into improved wages and conditions for ATPs...piloting is one of those industries that, I believe, will always suffer from huge over-supply.

Quoting prizeframe (Thread starter):
Is there any number or estimation on if it there's a lot of unemployed pilots? If not, you think it's a big number or just a small amount?

There are tons of people who are pilots who aren't employed as pilots; they're not unemployed though, they just have non-pilot jobs.

Tom.
 
prizeframe
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Sun Nov 18, 2012 5:01 pm

Thanks for the quick and insightful response Withheld!

Could you tell me what airline you're working for?
How does the hiring process work today, how do they find pilots? Why is it hard?
 
N766UA
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Sun Nov 18, 2012 5:02 pm

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 2):
piloting is one of those industries that, I believe, will always suffer from huge over-supply.

I think that will get less and less true as time goes on. With the new airline hiring requirements (1500 hrs, ATP), many, many pilots are deciding that the road is just not one worth traveling. I mean, really, you spend tens of thousands to get through your commercial, a few thousand more on a CFI, you spend however many months CFIing until you can get picked up flying boxes in the back of a Piper for no money, you do that for 1,000 more hours, then you finally get hired at an airline and the big payoff is…. 22,000k/year? Garbage work rules? Commuting? Crash pads? Labor disputes?

Pilots have never been pilots for the pay, the industry has always sucked, but there's just absolutely no incentive anymore.
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BMI727
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Sun Nov 18, 2012 9:58 pm

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 2):
The demand is going to boom for ATP's. That may nor may not turn into improved wages and conditions for ATPs...piloting is one of those industries that, I believe, will always suffer from huge over-supply.

I would tend to agree. No matter where the requirements go or what the pay is like, shiny jet syndrome will ensure a steady stream of pilots for those who need them. If the government requires more hours, guys will do it because they like to fly. Plus the carrot of the relatively few well paying jobs at the top of major airlines, which most pilots will never approach.
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AirRyan
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Sun Nov 18, 2012 10:27 pm

Here are some of the questions that you will have to ask yourself. Are doing it because you love to fly, or is it just another way of making a living? Are you willing to go to where the work is? Could be overseas (ex. Emirates or Cathay Pacific,) or the opposite end of the country. Are you willing to fly cargo with an even more so unorthodox schedule? Can you live on peanuts until you get the right gig? (Could be 10-15 years+) Can you get into military fixed wing flight training? Army WO flight training is great but there are just not a whole lot of professional helicopter jobs out there, and they are even more so unconventional and the pay is on average, meager.

Personally, I think the 1,500 hour rule will be changed before it becomes implemented because it was more so pushed by bureaucrats who don't know jack about the industry than it was the actual FAA. However, given the current level of unbelievable incompetence in D.C. right now, I wouldn't count on it. Half the current pilots in the US are over 50 so it's only logical that there will be a lot of vacancies in the next 15 years.

Choose wisely.
 
HAL
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Sun Nov 18, 2012 11:00 pm

What I've seen from flight schools across the US is that there simply aren't enough new students coming up through the pipeline to satisfy the demand in the years to come.

Sure, the majors will be the last to get hurt since they are the far end of that pipeline, but the shortage is real, and it's going to hurt the bottom end first. In my 30+ years of hanging around airports (as well as working in the industry) I've never seen it so dead at both the local/regional flight schools, as well as the 'big' pilot factories & colleges.

Getting through the process of becoming a pilot takes years, so a shortage of new-starts that began before the 2008 recession would hardly be noticed right now. But as the economy picks up and pilots begin to retire in larger numbers again, the pressure will grow rapidly on regionals, cargo operators, air taxis, night freight airlines, and everyone else that depends on a steady supply of newly-minted pilots to sit in their cockpits. This is an industry that has a very long-leadtime for the production of highly skilled workers (pilots). That supply has been cut off for so long though, that the effects are finally being felt, as Acey559 said in reply #1

Ask any flight school anywhere, and you'll see that times are tough (if you're a flight school). If you are an aspiring pilot, the market couldn't be better.

Quoting N766UA (Reply 4):
I think that will get less and less true as time goes on. With the new airline hiring requirements (1500 hrs, ATP), many, many pilots are deciding that the road is just not one worth traveling. I mean, really, you spend tens of thousands to get through your commercial, a few thousand more on a CFI, you spend however many months CFIing until you can get picked up flying boxes in the back of a Piper for no money, you do that for 1,000 more hours, then you finally get hired at an airline and the big payoff is…. 22,000k/year? Garbage work rules? Commuting? Crash pads? Labor disputes?



This has been true in the industry essentially forever. It's not a new phenomenon. Have patience, and you will be rewarded. If you're looking for a quick payday, forget it.

HAL
One smooth landing is skill. Two in a row is luck. Three in a row and someone is lying.
 
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Acey559
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Sun Nov 18, 2012 11:25 pm

Quoting prizeframe (Reply 3):

My pleasure. I work for American Eagle. We went through a big hiring boom last year, which was stymied by bankruptcy. We stopped hiring and furloughed 50 pilots. Shortly after, they were recalled and it was announced that we'd begin hiring again. The company knew they had to furlough in order to scare us into a new contract, but also knew that we had to retain as many as possible because finding new applicants would be difficult in the face of losing a large chunk to attrition. We officially recalled and out of 70, about 12 came back. We're now hiring but with the nee minimums (1500 hours, etc) we've only been able to find about 10 people since we started about a month ago, and it's expected to get more difficult. The company is now floating a $5,000 signing bonus on addition to higher first year pay (which is against out contract, but that's a different story). The company is desperate for people and they're just not out there, at least people who want to work here. If you have any other question, feel free to email/message me.
 
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TWA772LR
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Mon Nov 19, 2012 2:42 am

Word on the street is there is supposed to be a big shortage coming up, at least in the US, of commercial (I think) pilots. And with this new 1500 rule, the shortage may last quite a while, and may even get bigger.
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Mir
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Mon Nov 19, 2012 3:29 am

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 5):
No matter where the requirements go or what the pay is like, shiny jet syndrome will ensure a steady stream of pilots for those who need them. If the government requires more hours, guys will do it because they like to fly.

There will always be those people, but I doubt there will be enough of them to fill all the spots that are going to be vacant. The regionals are probably going to get hit hard in a year or two, and it will be very interesting to see how things shake out.

-Mir
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trent772
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Mon Nov 19, 2012 4:06 am

If airlines get so shorthanded that the situation turns difficult for operators to find qualified pilots in the US, do you think the Government will ever open its doors to foreign pilots?

A little too much wishful thinking on my part?
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ual777
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Mon Nov 19, 2012 4:12 am

Wishful thinking. Its going to get bad, but it won't be THAT bad.
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as739x
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Mon Nov 19, 2012 7:20 am

Quoting trent772 (Reply 11):
If airlines get so shorthanded that the situation turns difficult for operators to find qualified pilots in the US, do you think the Government will ever open its doors to foreign pilots?



No . the Government will stick it's foot in it's mouth realizing it made a huge mistake in raising min's to 1500. It was a reactionary move, mainly after the Colgan crash, to please the public. What the public forgets is that flying is safer than it's ever been. Also, the public outcry will now cause higher airfares in the future as pilots demand more money for their services.
"Some pilots avoid storm cells and some play connect the dots!"
 
silentbob
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Mon Nov 19, 2012 7:35 am

I don't know if reducing the 1500 to 500 would even be enough to fill the needs at the regional level in the next 3-5 years. I would not be surprised to see someone petition for single pilot operations at the regional level.
 
xjramper
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Mon Nov 19, 2012 7:56 am

Quoting silentbob (Reply 14):
I don't know if reducing the 1500 to 500 would even be enough to fill the needs at the regional level in the next 3-5 years. I would not be surprised to see someone petition for single pilot operations at the regional level.

I would be shocked if anyone wants to petition single pilot operations, ever, at least for 50+ seat aircraft.

A lot of people forget that prior to the government intervening, the hour requirements were mainly set by airline (or corporate or cargo) insurance mins. required. Perfect example of the government screwing something up yet again.

As I have feared, unless something is done with this new government reg, the aviation landscape will change like crazy, and more for the worst.
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pecevanne
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Mon Nov 19, 2012 8:19 am

Ask me, Mexican, training pilots in Baharain
 
silentbob
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Mon Nov 19, 2012 11:17 pm

Quoting xjramper (Reply 15):
I would be shocked if anyone wants to petition single pilot operations, ever, at least for 50+ seat aircraft.

Someone will, I have no doubts. The only question is "who will it be?"
 
bostonmike
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Tue Nov 20, 2012 2:15 pm

Quoting silentbob (Reply 14):
I don't know if reducing the 1500 to 500 would even be enough to fill the needs at the regional level in the next 3-5 years. I would not be surprised to see someone petition for single pilot operations at the regional level.

I had the dubious distinction of learning flight procedures in a Link Trainer eons ago. My retirement flight was in command of a 777. Needless to say the level of automation developed dramatically during that period. The sophistication of drone reconnaissance and attack aircraft is increasing exponentially. Military drones now have the capability to self-determine targeting possibilities. Could there be a petition to drop the third pilot on some international flights? Yes. How long will it be until someone feels comfortable petitioning for a single pilot/robotic-assist designation?

Aviation like medicine and law are changing dramatically. Whether the cost of flight training today can be offset by a rewarding career over the next thirty years is a question best left to others.
 
Mir
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Tue Nov 20, 2012 2:25 pm

Quoting trent772 (Reply 11):
If airlines get so shorthanded that the situation turns difficult for operators to find qualified pilots in the US, do you think the Government will ever open its doors to foreign pilots?

A little too much wishful thinking on my part?

I believe that will be one of the options that they will look at. But here's something to keep in mind: the whole reason that would be considered is because the regionals (who would be the ones hit) don't want to pay more money to attract applicants. If that's the case, why would experienced foreign pilots with ATP qualifications want to come over to the US to work for peanuts when they could find better paying jobs elsewhere in the world.

That said, I do agree with as739x that you will probably see a reduction in the legal minimums before you see a program to expedite getting visas for foreign pilots (you can work as a pilot right now in the US if you can get a visa, but that can of course be a difficult process).

Quoting BostonMike (Reply 18):
Could there be a petition to drop the third pilot on some international flights? Yes. How long will it be until someone feels comfortable petitioning for a single pilot/robotic-assist designation?

I could see reduced crewing on long-haul flights relatively soon, but I think it will be decades before we ever see single-pilot airliners. Not saying it won't happen, because it eventually will, but it'll be a while.

-Mir
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jonnyclark
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Tue Nov 20, 2012 6:30 pm

As this is currently very Americo-centric, thought I would balance the worldwide view. I have just finished my training in Europe, and now just starting my type rating for a very large LCC in Europe. I've been VERY lucky to actually get a job. Most people coming out of the aviation schools right now in the UK at least, are really struggling to find a job. As they will continue to do so for a while. There just isn't enough jobs out there for the cadets who are finishing. There are literally hundreds of employable cadets who just can't find a job. Out of my course, only 2 out of 17 cadets have managed to secure a job 6 months after completion. That's self funded, and to our American cousins, at a cost of roughly $140-150,000. You can just imagine what that means.

Most European carriers have actually slowed down their airplane deliveries by the looks of things, and other airlines crumbling, the market is starting to stagnate. In Europe, I would wait to start training until at least either of the two major low cost carriers make another plane order.
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76er
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Tue Nov 20, 2012 7:34 pm

Quoting prizeframe (Thread starter):
Is there any number or estimation on if it there's a lot of unemployed pilots?

Dutch pilot union VNV-Dalpa just did some research on the jobless rate and found about 1000 recent graduates unemployed without any prospect of finding a job. That's in the Netherlands alone.

I'm kinda confused about where you're from. Your profile says Nice, but your name suggests otherwise. The job markets east and west of the pond are quite different, to put it mildly. Having worked on both sides, I should know.
 
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lightsaber
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Tue Nov 20, 2012 7:48 pm

Quoting jonnyclark (Reply 20):
Out of my course, only 2 out of 17 cadets have managed to secure a job 6 months after completion. That's self funded, and to our American cousins, at a cost of roughly $140-150,000. You can just imagine what that means.

Ouch. I feel for your compatriots. That surplus pool is why I wonder how much of these articles are the schools trying to drum up interest.

Quoting 76er (Reply 21):
Dutch pilot union VNV-Dalpa just did some research on the jobless rate and found about 1000 recent graduates unemployed without any prospect of finding a job. That's in the Netherlands alone.

  



Quoting BostonMike (Reply 18):
Whether the cost of flight training today can be offset by a rewarding career over the next thirty years is a question best left to others.

And it won't be measured purely in dollars.

Lightsaber
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aviateur
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Thu Nov 22, 2012 6:44 pm

There is a glut of pilots, just as there always has been, and this glut will continue.

One exception MIGHT BE a drying up of the applicant pool at the regional level. For good reasons (low pay, hostile work environments, very little attrition and hiring at the majors, etc.). Thus this whole "pilot shortage" discussion needs to be re-phrased:

There will be no pilot shortage, per se. What there might be, however, is a shortage of pilots willing to work for very low wages, in poor work environments.

PS
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planemaker
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Thu Nov 22, 2012 7:09 pm

Quoting Mir (Reply 19):
I think it will be decades before we ever see single-pilot airliners.

Not decades... we'll start to see SP's within 15 years. The next generation of RJ's will be SP's and A & B's next all-new NB's will also be SP's.
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XFSUgimpLB41X
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Thu Nov 22, 2012 8:46 pm

Lots of know it alls with the single pilot thing... Even heavy trains aren't single manned and they just go forward and backward.
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EA CO AS
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Thu Nov 22, 2012 9:12 pm

Quoting planemaker (Reply 24):
Quoting Mir (Reply 19):I think it will be decades before we ever see single-pilot airliners.
Not decades... we'll start to see SP's within 15 years.

Negative; it will be decades, if ever. Besides, any carrier flying with only one pilot will suddenly find themselves having a huge marketing disadvantage as competitors tout the fact that, unlike a single-pilot flight deck carrier, "We take your safety seriously."

Sorry, I just don't see single-pilot flight decks at the majors. Ever.
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planemaker
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Thu Nov 22, 2012 10:22 pm

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 26):
Sorry, I just don't see single-pilot flight decks at the majors. Ever.


Less than 4 years ago most people discussing this area on A.net also said that we would not EVER see a car that could drive in traffic autonomously... and Google has now been doing this for a couple of years all over California on - freeways and in cities. Most people think in a linear scale whereas information technology advances exponentially.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
xjramper
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Thu Nov 22, 2012 11:14 pm

Quoting planemaker (Reply 27):
Less than 4 years ago most people discussing this area on A.net also said that we would not EVER see a car that could drive in traffic autonomously... and Google has now been doing this for a couple of years all over California on - freeways and in cities. Most people think in a linear scale whereas information technology advances exponentially.

You all are confusing the difference between the technology being there vs public perception.

Just because the technology and capability exists, doesn't mean the public will embrace the concept of an aircraft being piloted by a single pilot no matter how safe you can present it. I can see it now, government law requires the airlines to show if the aircraft will have one or two pilots.
Look ma' no hands!
 
tdscanuck
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Thu Nov 22, 2012 11:22 pm

Quoting XFSUgimpLB41X (Reply 25):
Lots of know it alls with the single pilot thing... Even heavy trains aren't single manned and they just go forward and backward

1) We've had single pilot ops for decades. Whether it makes it into Part 121 service is a different question, but pretending we don't know how do single pilot ops is just ignoring reality.
2) Heavy trains run long missions...your average subway train carries way more people than any airliner and has only one "pilot".

Tom.
 
tdscanuck
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Fri Nov 23, 2012 2:11 am

Quoting xjramper (Reply 28):
Just because the technology and capability exists, doesn't mean the public will embrace the concept of an aircraft being piloted by a single pilot no matter how safe you can present it.

The public already knowingly flies on single pilot aircraft in scheduled commercial service. The only thing we're quibbling about here is scale.

Tom.
 
XFSUgimpLB41X
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Fri Nov 23, 2012 2:19 am

121 airliners are a totally different ballgame than a citation or a premier. Sorry.

There are no single pilot 121 airliners even on the drawing board or proposed... so for the discussion of the impending pilot shortage, your point has no relevance. On top of that, the systems and operational complexity of a large airliner is on a completely different scale than the current certified single pilot light jets out there today.

It will be decades at the very least for what you propose to possibly become reality...
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BMI727
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Fri Nov 23, 2012 2:46 am

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 30):
The only thing we're quibbling about here is scale.

The biggest hurdles for single pilot operations on airliners will not be technological. Getting passengers, regulators, and pilot groups on board will be far more challenging than building an airliner that can effectively operated by one pilot.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
xjramper
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Fri Nov 23, 2012 2:50 am

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 30):
The public already knowingly flies on single pilot aircraft in scheduled commercial service. The only thing we're quibbling about here is scale.

Tom.

Where? Every single 50+ seater is driven by two pilots in commercial service. I will give you Cair. But that's a less than 9 pax aircraft.
Look ma' no hands!
 
Mir
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Fri Nov 23, 2012 3:06 am

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 29):
1) We've had single pilot ops for decades. Whether it makes it into Part 121 service is a different question, but pretending we don't know how do single pilot ops is just ignoring reality.

Accident statistics say that SP ops are more dangerous, though.

-Mir
7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
 
tdscanuck
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Fri Nov 23, 2012 3:33 am

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 32):
The biggest hurdles for single pilot operations on airliners will not be technological. Getting passengers, regulators, and pilot groups on board will be far more challenging than building an airliner that can effectively operated by one pilot.

Exactly. I'm fully onboard with the idea that it will never fly (pun only partly intended) due to lack of market acceptance. But that's a completely different issue than the spurious idea that it's a technology problem.

Quoting xjramper (Reply 33):
Where? Every single 50+ seater is driven by two pilots in commercial service. I will give you Cair. But that's a less than 9 pax aircraft.

All those DHC Beavers, Otters, and Twin Otters running around in the world are certified for single pilot ops.

Quoting Mir (Reply 34):
Accident statistics say that SP ops are more dangerous, though.

True. I would suggest that's largely because most SP ops today are done by pilots with less training than ATPs flying aircraft that are much less stringently certified than Part 21.

Tom.
 
ATCtower
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Fri Nov 23, 2012 3:54 am

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 35):
All those DHC Beavers, Otters, and Twin Otters running around in the world are certified for single pilot ops.
Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 30):
The public already knowingly flies on single pilot aircraft in scheduled commercial service. The only thing we're quibbling about here is scale.

If I may offer another prospective from an enroute air traffic controller, while the flying public may generally be ok with single pilot operations, I AM NOT! We cant avoid a number of civilian flights going with an incapacitated pilot and inexperienced right seater, and that is something we need to deal with and get over, but to do this in commercial service? HELL NO! It is not providing a service to a paying passenger to put them in that situation. I know there are some smaller planes where this happens (even in commercial service) and it is wrong. I for one am vehemently opposed to single pilot operations.

As for the OP topic, I normally would not have thought so given the huge boom then incredible bust 10 years ago. I know there are hundreds of airline jet pilots still on furlough waiting for their spot to come back. Having talked to a few pilots from AWE on a recent FAM, I have also learned they have alienated a VAST majority of these and they are no longer willing to come back. With the relatively senior pilots for AWE, I can see this opening a big number of pilot slots, and other airlines could be the same, I am just unfamiliar with their situations.

The industry is going to be in a constant need for pilots and that will certainly help the situation, along with a good number retiring, but asking if there is going to be a huge 'boom' of pilot hiring, I just cant fathom a situation where it would occur.

My $.02
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XFSUgimpLB41X
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Fri Nov 23, 2012 3:58 am

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 35):
All those DHC Beavers, Otters, and Twin Otters running around in the world are certified for single pilot ops.

Those are very very small operations with very small airplanes with a very small amount of passengers into very small areas of the world with very high accident rates.

Not helping your point.  

[Edited 2012-11-22 20:01:34]
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tdscanuck
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Fri Nov 23, 2012 4:40 am

Quoting XFSUgimpLB41X (Reply 37):
Not helping your point.

I think you missed what my point is. I was responding to this:

Quoting xjramper (Reply 28):
Just because the technology and capability exists, doesn't mean the public will embrace the concept of an aircraft being piloted by a single pilot no matter how safe you can present it.

I didn't say it was safer, I didn't even say it was as safe (the record speaks for itself). My point was that the public (and the regulators) have *already* embraced the concept an aircraft being piloted by a single crew and carrying revenue passengers.

All the pressures that drove us to that state on small aircraft continue to exist and will only get worse as the industry keeps getting squeezed on revenue, personnel cost, and now potentially a shortage of skilled pilots. It will, as usual, take the OEM's about a decade to catch up and another decade for the regulators to really get their hands around it, but it's coming.

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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Fri Nov 23, 2012 4:56 am

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 38):
All the pressures that drove us to that state on small aircraft continue to exist and will only get worse as the industry keeps getting squeezed on revenue, personnel cost, and now potentially a shortage of skilled pilots. It will, as usual, take the OEM's about a decade to catch up and another decade for the regulators to really get their hands around it, but it's coming.

The "shortage" is primarily within the next 10-15 years. The technology will not be there at the airlines to do anything remotely as to what you assert in that time frame. Airlines are very slow to adapt new technology due to the tremendous cost of acquisition.

Small corporate operations can, though.
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Fri Nov 23, 2012 5:00 am

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 35):
All those DHC Beavers, Otters, and Twin Otters running around in the world are certified for single pilot ops.

Over 400,000 miles flown in the last two and a half years as a commercial passenger, never once have I stepped aboard any of those aircraft, nor have I stepped on an aircraft that didn't have at least 2 pilots.

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 38):
I didn't say it was safer, I didn't even say it was as safe (the record speaks for itself). My point was that the public (and the regulators) have *already* embraced the concept an aircraft being piloted by a single crew and carrying revenue passengers.

The traveling public has a mindset that will just not allow for *major* carrier operations to be conducted with just one pilot.

Didn't say you said it was safer, it's just the mentality of the general public. The US just passed a law, which is the premise of the OP, stating that from mid-next year, a candidate for a RJ company will now have to wait until they have surpassed 1500 hours. Do you really think most people are going to allow for a SP operation? The aircraft you described above are designed for SP operation. Any jets make that list that fly commercially?
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Fri Nov 23, 2012 6:59 am

Quoting xjramper (Reply 40):
The traveling public has a mindset that will just not allow for *major* carrier operations to be conducted with just one pilot.

There may be a large % now but in ~15 years with an all-new RJ's design and ~25 years for all-new NB's the majority "mindset" will shift to accepting because robotics and automation will pervade daily lives.
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Fri Nov 23, 2012 11:12 am

Quoting silentbob (Reply 14):
I don't know if reducing the 1500 to 500 would even be enough to fill the needs at the regional level in the next 3-5 years. I would not be surprised to see someone petition for single pilot operations at the regional level.

Maybe one day, but not anytime soon. The airplanes on the market right now must be flown by two pilots. I have heard that Embraer was doing research in the single-pilot field but it will take a massive shift in logistics to make it happen. No time soon. Airplanes would need enormous amounts of redundancy and automation which does not currently exist. Additionally, a monitoring ground 'pilot' would likely be required and currently there is nothing like it in the airline industry.

Finally, you make the premise that 'regional' flying is easier, thus requiring just one pilot. Nothing could be further from the truth. Short hops have much higher work loads than long-haul flying and pilots frequently do up to 6 or more legs per day.

Single pilot ops makes much more sense on medium length flights with lower work loads.

We won't be seeing single-pilot operations in 'real' airline flying anytime soon. I would say we're at least a decade away from it, if it ever happens.
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Fri Nov 23, 2012 11:57 am

There is no shortage of pilots. There are two things that need to happen :
- There is no company providing flight training financing right now. (ATP Inc. does because they made a deal with Sallie Mae. This company got rid of the flight training financing except for ATP Inc. people only) . Like many things in life, they got too big and they are killing all the good flight schools in the market.

- The wages have to come up. I love it that regionals are still asking for concessions and some of them are in contract negotiations for 6 years (that means no raise close to 10 year period) .. Out of 30 people in my initial hire class , there are only 7-8 of them left in my company. Most of these people are out of airline flying, if not aviation because noone wants to endure 20,000 / year level wages being away from home this long.

It's pathetic that people are getting paid at the level lower than McD's manager when you can do the job without the initial investment of $100K...

To the original poster; get into aviation only because you want to; not because there might be a high demand for it (there isn't)..
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Fri Nov 23, 2012 1:38 pm

Quoting planemaker (Reply 41):
There may be a large % now but in ~15 years with an all-new RJ's design and ~25 years for all-new NB's the majority "mindset" will shift to accepting because robotics and automation will pervade daily lives.

   And the military is paying a fortune for UAV's in commercial airspace. That is the enabling technology. IMHO, as small cities are cut off in the current upgauging, there will be enough noise to allow single cockpits, but for smaller planes (50 seats or less).

Automation is becoming standard. I've automated away two of my prior jobs and I see how to automate away 2/3rds of my current position. It will happen.

Quoting saab2000 (Reply 42):
Additionally, a monitoring ground 'pilot' would likely be required and currently there is nothing like it in the airline industry.

I suspect once the advantage of a zero G, zero airspeed backup pilot is recognized, there will be a push to make all aircraft have their backup ground based. I went through flight test and the value of a well trained ground crew is immense. The technology is there, it just must get into the civilian sector.

Quoting saab2000 (Reply 42):
I have heard that Embraer was doing research in the single-pilot field but it will take a massive shift in logistics to make it happen.

The shift in operational procedure will happen cutesy of the US military and other UAV research. We won't have UAV passenger aircraft (that would be two big of a shift). But going from two to one isn't much of an issue. But it will take decades to happen.

Quoting bahadir (Reply 43):
It's pathetic that people are getting paid at the level lower than McD's manager when you can do the job without the initial investment of $100K...

   But that means supply and demand must come into balance and that is not the case.

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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Fri Nov 23, 2012 2:44 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 44):
But that means supply and demand must come into balance and that is not the case.

Several things are in flux now. The regional airline model is rapidly changing. In bankruptcy proceedings, Pinnacle is demanding their pilots accept a wage/benefit level below anyone else in the industry. You can bet Delta's heavy hand is behind this ensuring their ability to negotiate lower CPAs with other regionals. So there is a race to the bottom for pilot compensation and benefits. Meanwhile the cost of training remains high. The major airlines are embracing a scope provision to dramatically increase regional partner flying up to 76 seats.

Republic pilots have had an amenable contract since 2007. Presently, their first officers are capped at around $34,000 a year no matter how many years they have been employed or what type of equipment they operate. Based on the Pinnacle progress, why would Republic be in any hurry to negotiate.

One of the manning solutions which comes up from time to time is the use of a Multi-Licensed Pilot (MLP) to staff airlines. Boy or girl wonder can operate the aircraft while in flight, but makes no take offs or landings and is qualified to "cruise" on all the aircraft in the fleet.

I think the use of the term, Single Pilot, is somewhat archaic. We are not talking about single-piloted corporate jets or Cape Air type flying. We are talking about robotic assisted flying. Sounds more like a very advanced autopilot to me. Robotic Laparoscopic Surgery is becoming routine and even sought out.

As far as public perception goes, well, good marketing can do amazing things.

I remember the royal battle over placing the DC-9 into service with only two pilots. "Unsafe", "suicidal" were the calls from the pilot groups. "We need those extra eyes in the cockpit". United even had a Guy in Back (GIB) on the 737s. His only job was to fill out the time sheet for the other two pilots and do the walkarounds.

Moore's Law is still around. Just check out the computing power of the new smart phones. "I'm Siri and I can handle all of your flying needs".
 
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Fri Nov 23, 2012 9:40 pm

Quoting BostonMike (Reply 45):
So there is a race to the bottom for pilot compensation and benefits.

Which will be balanced by supply and demand. Not many pilots are going through training as the pay is poor. If pay improves, which it should be able to with 76+ seaters, I would expect more to enter the industry. In particular after the majors *finally* start having their retirements in number. But it will take the hope of more pay to fix that part of the system.

Note: I'm not talking about dramatic increases in pay, but enough to attract new entrants.

Quoting BostonMike (Reply 45):
The major airlines are embracing a scope provision to dramatically increase regional partner flying up to 76 seats.

Yes. To be expected. The MRJ900 is being engineered to cost about the same as a CRJ200 per flight. Even if the MRJ misses the target by a little, it is a much better economic situation. The 50 seat RJs just burn too much fuel per passenger. This will mean a few cities are either dropped or returned to turboprop duty, but so what?

Quoting BostonMike (Reply 45):
I think the use of the term, Single Pilot, is somewhat archaic.

Agreed. I'm not sure 'robotic assisted' flying is the right term as there would be a ground pilot to assist in case of the worst. While the electronics could fly and land the aircraft (takeoff is trivial), customers will initially want a human always in the loop.

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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Fri Nov 23, 2012 10:23 pm

Quoting saab2000 (Reply 42):
Finally, you make the premise that 'regional' flying is easier, thus requiring just one pilot. Nothing could be further from the truth. Short hops have much higher work loads than long-haul flying and pilots frequently do up to 6 or more legs per day.

   The regionals are the LAST places that should see single-pilot ops.

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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Fri Nov 23, 2012 10:30 pm

Quoting saab2000 (Reply 42):
I have heard that Embraer was doing research in the single-pilot field

Yes, a couple of years back Embraer was looking at the possibility of SP ops by as early as 2020 and was planning to provide SP capability in the 2020-25 timeframe. Others that publicly have acknowledged work on SP ops are GE Aviation (with the FAA) that are working on a possible "reduced-crew options" for cargo airlines by 2020. And Thales presented their SP ops flight deck at the last Paris Airshow.

Quoting saab2000 (Reply 42):
Airplanes would need enormous amounts of redundancy and automation which does not currently exist.

No "enormous amounts" required... and the automation already exists.

Quoting saab2000 (Reply 42):
Additionally, a monitoring ground 'pilot' would likely be required and currently there is nothing like it in the airline industry.

Nothing like it? What do you call the +1,300 people that work on the 27th floor of the Willis Tower that manage UA's 5,600 daily flights? And every major has one.

Quoting saab2000 (Reply 42):
Short hops have much higher work loads than long-haul flying and pilots frequently do up to 6 or more legs per day.

I fully agree. I have posted before that pilot pay should take into account legs flown. It is perverse that the most experienced pilots get the easiest routes and are paid (typically) the most... the opposite of just about every other endeavor where the best takes on the most challenging and thus earns top dollar.

Quoting saab2000 (Reply 42):
Single pilot ops makes much more sense on medium length flights with lower work loads.

Work load will be significantly less with next gen of RJ/NB's and ATC.

Quoting saab2000 (Reply 42):
I would say we're at least a decade away from it, if it ever happens.

Perhaps less than a decade on cargo flights. Can't understand why you would even entertain that it might not even happen given how much automation is already on the drawing boards and the exponential growth in computing power going forward?

Quoting bahadir (Reply 43):
It's pathetic that people are getting paid at the level lower than McD's manager when you can do the job without the initial investment of $100K...

Supply and demand.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 44):
And the military is paying a fortune for UAV's in commercial airspace. That is the enabling technology.

Yes, the military is funding the lion share of not just UAV's but all autonomous systems which leverage off each other. As well, the commercial side is growing robustly and are applying significant pressure on politicians to allow commercial UAV ops.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 44):
Automation is becoming standard. I've automated away two of my prior jobs and I see how to automate away 2/3rds of my current position. It will happen.

Several articles in the press echo your point!

Quoting BostonMike (Reply 45):
As far as public perception goes, well, good marketing can do amazing things.

Including lower fares.   Just look at how much people belly ache about FR... to the point of making it the largest short haul carrier in Europe with the highest market cap!  
Quoting BostonMike (Reply 45):
Moore's Law is still around. Just check out the computing power of the new smart phones. "I'm Siri and I can handle all of your flying needs".

It seems that most people don't know about Moore's Law... or the fact that even now just about every pax has a back-up PFD!  
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 46):
Yes. To be expected. The MRJ900 is being engineered to cost about the same as a CRJ200 per flight. Even if the MRJ misses the target by a little, it is a much better economic situation. The 50 seat RJs just burn too much fuel per passenger. This will mean a few cities are either dropped or returned to turboprop duty, but so what?

And the MRJ isn't really an optimized platform.
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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1

Fri Nov 23, 2012 10:39 pm

Quoting planemaker (Reply 48):
Work load will be significantly less with next gen of RJ/NB's and ATC.

Shorter flights will still have higher workloads then longer flights. That's not going to change.

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