mitris
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Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 12:13 am

Sorry if this has been discussed before, but why Boeing is not designing an additional larger version of the B747-8i to compete with the A380?
 
yendig
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 12:24 am

AFAIK Boeing saw only limited future orders from the VLA category so, rather than designing a new 'superjumbo' to match the A380, updated their older 747 design & built the new 787 instead. As a business, they figured the 787 would offer them a better Return On Investment.
 
G500
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 12:44 am

Quoting mitris (Thread starter):
Sorry if this has been discussed before, but why Boeing is not designing an additional larger version of the B747-8i to compete with the A380?

Why in the world would Boeing desing a "larger version of the 747-800 to compete with the A380"?? they're trying to sell aircraft not figure out who can build the largest airplane.

Boeing has been bashing Airbus because "the A380 is just too large for many markets" and now they're going to build something as big? not happening

[Edited 2012-11-20 17:00:54]
 
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ADent
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 12:50 am

Because they won't make money.

The 747-8i was a relatively low investment option - and yet not a big success.

They have in the past offered bigger versions and yet no orders - see 747-600X and 747-700X.

To take sales from the competitor, you want to be 15% cheaper. The A380 is not super efficient, but the A380-900 NEO would be the target that Boeing would need to beat. That means an all new plane. All new programs have not been great for Boeing - 787 is a train wreck, 777 cost more than planned.

Apparently Boeing doesn't think the money to invest in a A380-900 NEO killer would pay back in a timely matter. Not big enough market or not enough margin, or just too much risk.
 
mitris
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 12:54 am

That makes sense, yendig. However, I believe Airbus has proven Boeing to be wrong with firm orders of the A380 to be reaching 262 as of today (according to Wikipedia).

On the other hand, Boeing has received 844 orders for the B787. Thus, this aircraft is indeed profitable. But Airbus designed the A350 as a competitor.

So, how come Boeing is not creating a stretched version of the B747-8i in the near future, so it can compete with the A380, and receive more orders?
 
mitris
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 1:00 am

Quoting ADent (Reply 3):

Apparently Boeing doesn't think the money to invest in a A380-900 NEO killer would pay back in a timely matter. Not big enough market or not enough margin, or just too much risk.

Gotcya
 
art
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 1:03 am

The 748-i has a capacity niche below A380. Why stretch it so that it has to compete more directly with A380 (and possibly fail to win any orders)?
 
mitris
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 1:07 am

Quoting art (Reply 6):

The 748-i has a capacity niche below A380. Why stretch it so that it has to compete more directly with A380 (and possibly fail to win any orders)?

Well, they are not doing well with their B747-8i orders. That's why I was suggesting to have two versions of the B747-8. I guess time will tell if the B747-8I will be successful.
 
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 1:13 am

Quoting mitris (Reply 4):
That makes sense, yendig. However, I believe Airbus has proven Boeing to be wrong with firm orders of the A380 to be reaching 262 as of today (according to Wikipedia).

On the other hand, Boeing has received 844 orders for the B787. Thus, this aircraft is indeed profitable. But Airbus designed the A350 as a competitor.

They may have 262 orders but last I heard they are still a good ways away from being profitable on the program. They invested a ton in the airplane. Same with the 787. Another article stated they may have to pump out 1000 before they start getting good returns. Which at the number they are currently at, may be very achievable. Just like load factors a full order book doesn't always equate to a profitable program.

There just isn't a huge market for aircraft as big as the A380. Maybe someday there will be a large demand, but as of now not really. The 747-8 seems to be hurt by the 777. It is an aircraft with great range and capacity and when compared the -8 provides similar things. Nothing really stands out about the 747. I personally think the 777 is worse for the 747 than the A380 program.
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brilondon
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 1:21 am

I don't think that Boeing wants to compete for the 262 frames. Not a whole lot of demand for such a large aircraft so why would Boeing want to build such an aircraft?
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Ruscoe
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 1:22 am

I would like to see how a smaller 748-SP, same size as 744, but 748 MTOW, would go. Would be a limited market I realise.
I wonder what the range of such an aircraft would be?

ruscoe
 
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 1:24 am

Quoting art (Reply 6):
The 748-i has a capacity niche below A380. Why stretch it so that it has to compete more directly with A380 (and possibly fail to win any orders)?

There are many planes today capable of 7000 miles carrying 300 passengers. The 748's best competition is the 777-300ER, offering an A380 size plane is a lemon. Offering 77W and 787-9 creates two winning programs. The "iconic" 747 is a great plane for its past, its future is as a niche machine.
 
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 1:49 am

Quoting mitris (Reply 4):
I believe Airbus has proven Boeing to be wrong with firm orders of the A380 to be reaching 262 as of today (according to Wikipedia).

Yes, but didn't Boeing forecast a VLA market for only about 400 planes? I think Airbus' forecast three times that many planes. Perhaps the market will take off, but right now, it doesn't seem that demand can support two VLA programs. VLAs are also frightfully expensive and I know we've discussed on A.net a few airlines struggling to fit the A380 into their schedules due to its capacity. (I think this has been less a problem for the 748 because so few have ordered it!) If the airline can't fill the seats, it's got an expensive problem on its hands. I think it's just one reason - of many I'm sure - that makes an airline think long and hard before buying a VLA.
 
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 1:55 am

Quoting mitris (Thread starter):

Sorry if this has been discussed before, but why Boeing is not designing an additional larger version of the B747-8i to compete with the A380?

Because they'd lose money (or more money than the current 747-8i, take your pick).

Quoting mitris (Reply 4):
However, I believe Airbus has proven Boeing to be wrong with firm orders of the A380 to be reaching 262 as of today (according to Wikipedia).

262 isn't even enough to pay for the A380. If you split that market between the A380 and the 747-8i all you do is guarantee that *both* aircraft will never make money.

Quoting mitris (Reply 4):
So, how come Boeing is not creating a stretched version of the B747-8i in the near future, so it can compete with the A380, and receive more orders?

Because that's mutual suicide. If they keep the airplanes sufficiently different in size there's some hope that there's enough demand for A380-sized aircraft to keep the A380 profitable and enough demand for 747-8i-sized aircraft to keep the 747-8i profitable. If they go head-to-head, they're both guaranteed to lose.

Tom.
 
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 1:55 am

Quoting art (Reply 6):
The 748-i has a capacity niche below A380. Why stretch it so that it has to compete more directly with A380 (and possibly fail to win any orders)?

Well, that is of course one way to look at it??... The reality is that Airbus shot for the Niche ABOVE the 747. I don't know how that will work out? But, please keep things in perspective.  
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Stitch
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 3:09 am

Quoting mitris (Thread starter):
Sorry if this has been discussed before, but why Boeing is not designing an additional larger version of the B747-8i to compete with the A380?

Realistically, Boeing could stretch the 747-8 another 3m (to 79.5m). Using Boeing's OEM seating configuration, this would increase capacity from 467 to 492.

In LH's configuration, assuming they gave it all to Economy Class, that would raise capacity from 362 to 392. That is still 75% of the capacity of the A380-800 and 128 less Economy seats.
 
thegeek
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 3:37 am

I never understood why the 748i was ever built. Boeing spent years/decades shopping around further derivatives of the 747 and a number of studies and found there wasn't enough market for them. Why didn't they continue to back their own judgement and leave the market for the A380?
 
cosmofly
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 3:42 am

Boeing can already make the 747-8i "bigger" without stretching it. Clever use of the crown space from door 3 to 5 can do magic. Currently the space is already used by 5 747-8i VIPs.

http://www.greenpnt.com/wp-content/u...ivers-First-BBJ-747-8-Aeroloft.pdf

Easiest way to add seats is to move some galley and toilet up to that space to free up more main cabin area.

More adventurous design is to put more seats up in that space.

After the 2013 pips, may be Boeing can try to find some launch customers for such upgrade.
 
mitris
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 3:57 am

Quoting cosmofly (Reply 17):

Boeing can already make the 747-8i "bigger" without stretching it. Clever use of the crown space from door 3 to 5 can do magic. Currently the space is already used by 5 747-8i VIPs.

http://www.greenpnt.com/wp-content/u...ivers-First-BBJ-747-8-Aeroloft.pdf

Easiest way to add seats is to move some galley and toilet up to that space to free up more main cabin area.

More adventurous design is to put more seats up in that space.

After the 2013 pips, may be Boeing can try to find some launch customers for such upgrade.

I LOVE your statement, cosmofly! I hope something like that happens. The B747 is such a beautiful aircraft. It's sad to see it disappearing. But yes, I know... Not so profitable these days.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 4:36 am

Quoting thegeek (Reply 16):
I never understood why the 748i was ever built.

They wanted to counter the A380-800F and they greatly overestimated the market for the passenger model.
 
Ruscoe
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 4:40 am

At a certain price the 748 will be more attractive than the 380.

It's doubtful Boeing would ever go that low, but it does keep a lid on the amount Airbus can charge, and that may be seen as beeficial to Boeing.

Ruscoe
 
thegeek
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 4:40 am

On the former point it can even be called a success. Perhaps a Pyrrhic victory though.
 
Mcoov
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 5:04 am

Let's face it. With the 77W and the 787 and A350 (soon to be) around, nobody wants a 4-holer for the kinds of loads a 747 used to do, and nobody needs a massive 350+ capacity airplane for the ranges the 747 used to do. Exceptions exist, such as on US --> Europe routes, Australia --> North America routes, and the Kangaroo route, but considering what the 747's role used to be, this really does limit the need for such a large airplane. The same could be said for the A380: that its role is really limited to these kinds of routes. Anything else can be handled by a 77W.
 
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 5:07 am

I love the B747, she is the Queen of the skies and always will be.


Having said that, the 748 will be the end of the line.


I'm not a great fan of the A380, that's partly my bias against Airbus and partly it's frumpy looks but I think it has a bright future.


As the sole real new generation VLA I can see an increasing demand for it, especially higher performing and stretched versions which will really be game changers.
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travelhound
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 5:19 am

You would think if Boeing were to spend more money on the 747 they would be better off improving the existing 748i than going for another derivative.
 
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CARST
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 8:19 am

Quoting Max Q (Reply 23):
I'm not a great fan of the A380, that's partly my bias against Airbus and partly it's frumpy looks but I think it has a bright future.


As the sole real new generation VLA I can see an increasing demand for it, especially higher performing and stretched versions which will really be game changers.

I don't see the future of the A380 that positive. If we think about the average production time of an airplane program, most aircraft are obsolete after 20 years, with a newer, better airplane emerging 10-15 years afterwards from another (or sometimes even the same) manufacturer.

A380 EIS was in 2007, as there perhaps won't be such a large VLA for the next 30 years, that is an advantage for Airbus. But the technology of the A380 still gets older year by year. To be on a level playing field with new generation aircraft, Airbus would need a engine upgrade and a modified wing in the 2022-2027 time-span. Perhaps a little bit later. Do we really expect that to happen? The VLA market would really need to gain speed to spend to much money on another VLA. And if that happens, Boeing would come up with their own VLA design, because airlines would be asking them for an A380NEO competitor.

Instead, I expect the era of the 4-engined aircraft is going to end, the 747-8i will be out of production by then already, perhaps the 747-8F lives on for some more decades as THE freighter on bulk freight market, the A380 won't see a NEO version and might secure some orders from existing customers, but will be phased out after 20 years of flying, too, just to be replaced by smaller, more efficient aircraft. Two 781LRs or A359X will be flying around the same number of pax and will be more efficient and bump up frequency, too.


I could be totally wrong, the A389 is launched in 2 years, airports get so congested that frequency is reduced and smaller planes get replaced by VLAs, the A380NEO if offered in 10 years and Boeing announces to replace the 777-9 and the 747-8i with a new VLA, too. Who knows? To many variables. But I think my former look into the future is the more realistic one, not for us aviation enthusiasts, but economical...
 
Aither
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 9:54 am

The VLAs are largely targeting the big cities of Asia. Just look at where the A380 is used.
Most commentators here are from America or Europe. The speed of the shift of the global economy to the east is far superior to what every expert was expecting. Now China and other countries in the region are developing fast a big middle class to be less dependent of exports. And these people they all want to visit only a few destinations in the world (Rome, London...). They also, like us, prefer night flight. On top of that high fuel price is pushing airlines toward concentration. etc.

Maybe the A380 came too soon, but its market keeps better and fast.

[Edited 2012-11-21 01:59:22]
Never trust the obvious
 
dennys
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 12:20 pm

Well i doubt about the A380-900 to BE built . And 4 holers are out of fashion on our days ....
 
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par13del
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 12:30 pm

Quoting thegeek (Reply 16):
I never understood why the 748i was ever built. Boeing spent years/decades shopping around further derivatives of the 747 and a number of studies and found there wasn't enough market for them. Why didn't they continue to back their own judgement and leave the market for the A380?

The impetus for the 748i was the 748F, the pax version is an off shoot of the freighter model and Boeings views of the cargo market demands / desires.
Airbus A380 is the reverse, the pax version is based on their views of the pax market and its demands, the freighter version is an off shot of the pax model.
 
2175301
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 12:54 pm

Quoting mitris (Reply 4):
That makes sense, yendig. However, I believe Airbus has proven Boeing to be wrong with firm orders of the A380 to be reaching 262 as of today (according to Wikipedia).

I believe if Airbus had it all over to do again - they never would have built the A380 at all. It has proven to be a massive financial disaster - and Airbus could have better invested the money elsewhere.

Airbus does not talk about the A380 financials (and stopped doing so several years ago); but, at this point Airbus has not yet figured out how to even build one for the same amount of money they have sold them for - and are loosing money on every A380 they deliver. (the time from start of assembly to final delivery is atrocious - with many thousands of extra manhours they did not plan on) This is in addition to the many $billions they spent developing the plane in the first place.

While it is not uncommon for the initial production of aircraft to exceed their selling price - that usually reverses itself after a couple of years as the production lines come up to speed and develop a rhythm. Then, the remaining production produces a net profit per plane that usually pays off the development cost. That has not yet happened for the A380. As such their are currently no known public projections of the A380 program every being profitable.

I note that due to poor market for the 748 that Boeing has stated that with current orders that the 748 program also in a current loss position (development cost + production cost > expected profit from existing sales); However, Boeing has also said that with additional orders that the 748 program could be profitable; and Boeing has specifically turned down orders for the 748 that would not produce a net profit for the production of the plane.

Their just isn't much of a market for very large aircraft. Certainly not worth spending more $Billions developing another variant.

Have a great day,
 
BlueSky1976
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 12:56 pm

Larger 747-8i to compete with A380? Lemme guess....

No way.

I'd rather have two 777-9Xs instead.
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dennys
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 1:15 pm

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 10):

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Ruscoe From Australia, joined Aug 1999, 1385 posts, RR: 2
Reply 10, posted Wed Nov 21 2012 02:22:09 your local time (11 hours 43 minutes 57 secs ago) and read 4953 times:

I would like to see how a smaller 748-SP, same size as 744, but 748 MTOW, would go. Would be a limited market I realise.
I wonder what the range of such an aircraft would be?

ruscoe

well only if a Carrier should ask Boeing make such an aircraft ( i e QF ) i bet Boeing shall built it .
 
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EPA001
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 1:18 pm

Quoting CARST (Reply 25):
A380 EIS was in 2007, as there perhaps won't be such a large VLA for the next 30 years, that is an advantage for Airbus. But the technology of the A380 still gets older year by year. To be on a level playing field with new generation aircraft, Airbus would need a engine upgrade and a modified wing in the 2022-2027 time-span. Perhaps a little bit later. Do we really expect that to happen?

Like you said there are many variables which will determine in what direction future developments will take the airliners which we know of today. I am pretty optimistic about the A380 further developments. Much newer engine technology, aerodynamic upgrades, further weight reduction developments, and a simple stretch can keep the A380 very attractive for decades to come. Especially if more and more airports become slot-restricted.

And aging technology can be circumvented. We see this on the B748 and on the proposed B77X-programs. Both airliners have a baseline technology which is way older then that of the A380, so that is not really a problem. That being said the B748 does not have the same development potential that the A380 has. An even longer B748 would not be able to compete with the A380, and especially further developments on the A380 (maybe the A380-900 + NEO) would be totally out of reach for any B748 development.
 
Daysleeper
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 1:20 pm

Quoting mitris (Reply 4):
On the other hand, Boeing has received 844 orders for the B787. Thus, this aircraft is indeed profitable

No it’s not – Far from it in fact. As has been discussed in many threads already the 787 is going to need upwards of 1600 orders to come anywhere close to being profitable, and 1600 is actually a very conservative estimate – Some commentators estimate the figure to be higher still.

Quoting yendig (Reply 1):
AFAIK Boeing saw only limited future orders from the VLA category so, rather than designing a new 'superjumbo' to match the A380, updated their older 747 design & built the new 787 instead.

If Boeing saw no future in a VLA then why did they build the 748 in the first place?

Quoting ADent (Reply 3):
The A380 is not super efficient, but the A380-900 NEO would be the target that Boeing would need to beat.

The A380 is the most efficient passenger transport available right now…

Quoting jetblueguy22 (Reply 8):
Another article stated they may have to pump out 1000 before they start getting good returns.

Nope – See above.
 
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hOMSaR
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 1:21 pm

All the arguments against Boeing designing a larger 747 are valid. Another one, not yet mentioned, is that Boeing is currently working on finishing up a larger 787 (the -9), possibly another stretch of that (the -10), plus three new 737 models (MAX -7, 8, and 9), plus they're starting work on a revised 777. All that takes not only money, but engineering resources that are stretched thin.

Even if there was a slim chance that a stretched 747 could be profitable, Boeing has too much on their plate to go after that market and risk diverting essential resources from these other projects.
The plural of Airbus is Airbuses. Airbii is not a word, and doesn't even make sense.
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airfrnt
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 1:40 pm

Quoting mitris (Thread starter):

Sorry if this has been discussed before, but why Boeing is not designing an additional larger version of the B747-8i to compete with the A380?

Given the lack of real commercial success shown by the A380, to say nothing of the 747-8i, why on earth would anyone get into this space?

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 33):
No it’s not – Far from it in fact. As has been discussed in many threads already the 787 is going to need upwards of 1600 orders to come anywhere close to being profitable, and 1600 is actually a very conservative estimate – Some commentators estimate the figure to be higher still.

For the A380, factory break-even (where they are making more money selling a A380 then the cost of building it) is 2015. Operational break-even (where the program has made more money then it spent) is around 420 units (again, per Airbus). Suffice it to say that the program does not have enough order to make it to either of those benchmarks right now.


While Boeing has not provided a factory break-even point, the operational break-even is going to be at 1100 units,The number above just wishful thinking.

Hereis a great article on it:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/5920...oeing-vs-airbus-orders-and-profits

 
astuteman
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 2:00 pm

Quoting CARST (Reply 25):
Airbus would need a engine upgrade and a modified wing in the 2022-2027 time-span. Perhaps a little bit later. Do we really expect that to happen?

Yep. By 2025-2027 I expect the A380 to have both upgraded engines (Trent XWB or GTF's) and some form of wingtip treatment (not a new wing, but something similar to the wingtip improvements the A320NEO and 737MAX are receiving, both many decades after their entry into service)
There's got to be upwards of 10% reduction in fuel burn from those 2 combined.
Which would make a stretch VERY interesting

Quoting dennys (Reply 27):
And 4 holers are out of fashion on our days ....

Twins got bigger is what happened.
I don't see the largest size of aircraft that is feasible getting smaller. I think the reverse is the case.
Does that mean twins will become a bigger percentage of the total? Yes, I'd say.
But there will be a new-build quad for a long time

Quoting par13del (Reply 28):
The impetus for the 748i was the 748F, the pax version is an off shoot of the freighter model and Boeings views of the cargo market demands / desires

That is categorically incorrect, is repeated ad-nauseam on here, and corrected ad-nauseam.
At launch, boeing projected 2/3 of 748 sales to be intercontinentals.

Quoting 2175301 (Reply 29):
I believe if Airbus had it all over to do again - they never would have built the A380 at all

They would. They'd just execute it properly.
Much as Boeing would with the 787, at a guess  
Quoting 2175301 (Reply 29):
at this point Airbus has not yet figured out how to even build one for the same amount of money they have sold them for - and are loosing money on every A380 they deliver

I suspect they have.
But it will take until 2015 for frames to
a) be flowing freely through the system without re-work or delay, and
b) for deliveries not to have incurred delay penalties. The sales price itself hasn't been the sole issue. It has also been what has been left of that after penalties have been incurred.

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 33):
If Boeing saw no future in a VLA then why did they build the 748 in the first place?

Good question

Quoting airfrnt (Reply 35):
factory break-even (where they are making more money selling a A380 then the cost of building it) is 2015.

Correct.
Bear in mind though that pre-2015 frames selling price has been hit by penalties, just as the cost has been hit by the protracted duration in build as rework has been executed.

Quoting airfrnt (Reply 35):
Operational break-even (where the program has made more money then it spent) is around 420 units (again, per Airbus).

For what its worth I reckon the real number is between 500 and 600.

Quoting airfrnt (Reply 35):
Hereis a great article on it:

It's actually a crap article, riddled with inaccuracies and omitting vital contextualisation witohut which the numbers are meaningless.
It was debated ad-nauseam on an earlier thread

rgds
 
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Faro
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 2:08 pm

The A380 has more than enough work competing with itself; no need -or space- for another competitor.


Faro
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Stitch
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 2:14 pm

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 20):
At a certain price the 748 will be more attractive than the 380.

It's doubtful Boeing would ever go that low, but it does keep a lid on the amount Airbus can charge, and that may be seen as beeficial to Boeing.

Boeing has already stated they have refused a number of 747-8 sales because the price offered by the customer was too low.

Quite simply, Boeing cannot deeply discount the 747-8 without impacting the Average Sales Price of the 777-300ER.
 
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AirlineCritic
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 2:41 pm

In general, the two manufacturers do not attempt to make their products compete head-on. They rather place their products in slightly different categories. Then you see marketing arguing that a particular aircraft size is better than some other aircraft size. But you'll also see different airlines pick the size that fits them best, leaving both manufacturers a core set of customers. The head-on competition runs perhaps a biggerrisk of one of the competitors being left out.

I think this is the case with the 748 and 380 as well. 748... the more moderate size option, for markets not reaching the highest size. 380... the big size option, with a goal to get a very low CASM.
 
airbazar
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 2:43 pm

Quoting CARST (Reply 25):
I don't see the future of the A380 that positive. If we think about the average production time of an airplane program, most aircraft are obsolete after 20 years, with a newer, better airplane emerging 10-15 years afterwards from another (or sometimes even the same) manufacturer.

In order for it to be obsolete, there has to be something to replace it with. There's no way that we'll have another VLA airplane in 20 years. The long term business case for VLA aircraft is still very much valid. With worldwide double digit growth in passenger travel it's difficult to not imagine a scenario where A380's will be flying medium-haul and even short haul routes 20 years from now. It's all in the math. The technology itself will improve just like it did for the 737->737MAX, the A300->A330, A320->A320NEO, 747->748i, etc, but the A380 will be around for a very long time just like the 747 has been around for a very long time.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 2:53 pm

Many customers purchased the 747-400 not for it's capacity, but for it's range. Once smaller planes with similar range became available, customers started booking away from the 747-400 in favor of those smaller planes.

While the A380-800 has incredible range, customers are purchasing it primarily for it's capacity. Therefore, even though smaller planes with equal or better range (747-400ER | 777-200LR | A340-500)) are available, customers are not considering them.

As such, I am in agreement with airbazar (and other a.net members who have expressed a similar opinion) that the A380-800 will effectively not become obsolete.
 
tdscanuck
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 3:14 pm

Quoting thegeek (Reply 16):

I never understood why the 748i was ever built.

There is some demand in that space and the 747-400 was too old and inefficient.

Quoting CARST (Reply 25):
If we think about the average production time of an airplane program, most aircraft are obsolete after 20 years

The *vast* majority of aircraft in production today come from programs more than 20 years old. Individual aircraft are obsolete after 20 years; successful programs tend to last much longer.

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 33):
Quoting yendig (Reply 1):
AFAIK Boeing saw only limited future orders from the VLA category so, rather than designing a new 'superjumbo' to match the A380, updated their older 747 design & built the new 787 instead.

If Boeing saw no future in a VLA then why did they build the 748 in the first place?

yendig didn't say Boeing saw no future in a VLA. yendig said they saw *limited* future orders. Which, as the market is showing, seemed to be pretty accurate. Boeing didn't see enough future to pay for *two* new types, certainly.

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 33):
Quoting ADent (Reply 3):
The A380 is not super efficient, but the A380-900 NEO would be the target that Boeing would need to beat.

The A380 is the most efficient passenger transport available right now…

If you fill it. Efficiency is only profitable if you can load up the airplane. That's not to say the A380 can't be economically competitive (it certainly can be) but it's a mistake to think that efficiency wins the day. Profit wins the day.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 36):
Quoting par13del (Reply 28):
The impetus for the 748i was the 748F, the pax version is an off shoot of the freighter model and Boeings views of the cargo market demands / desires

That is categorically incorrect, is repeated ad-nauseam on here, and corrected ad-nauseam.
At launch, boeing projected 2/3 of 748 sales to be intercontinentals.

There's a difference between the impetus for the program and the expected sales. If Boeing had done the 747-8 program primarily for the -8i, they would have built and tested the -8i first. The fact that they didn't tells you which order the demand and development progressed. Very similar pattern to the original 747, actually...the impetus then was the passenger version but they expected the vast majority of sales to be freighters.

Tom.
 
Daysleeper
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 3:48 pm

Quoting airfrnt (Reply 35):
While Boeing has not provided a factory break-even point, the operational break-even is going to be at 1100 units,The number above just wishful thinking.

Hereis a great article on it:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/5920...oeing-vs-airbus-orders-and-profits

Unless I’m missing it I can’t find anywhere in that article which states the 787 will break even at 1100 frames, there are some comments which make that claim – but they provide no figures or method as to how they have reached that figure.

I’m going to avoid going into detail and dragging this thread off topic as there are already many threads discussing this.
 
StickShaker
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 4:00 pm

Quoting travelhound (Reply 24):
You would think if Boeing were to spend more money on the 747 they would be better off improving the existing 748i than going for another derivative.

There will be no more money spent on any 747 derivative - its a large black hole.


Regards,
StickShaker
 
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 4:10 pm

Quoting airbazar (Reply 40):
There's no way that we'll have another VLA airplane in 20 years. The long term business case for VLA aircraft is still very much valid.

For the past 15 years, Boeing has believed that the VLA market is not strong enough to justify a new model like the A380 or a major investment like the 747-500X/600X. The 747-8 is a fairly conservative program compared to Boeing's previous 747 stretch studies, although I'm sure it ended up costing a lot more than they anticipated given the 2-year delay and engineering challenges. So far, with less than 300 orders for passenger VLAs over the 12 years that the A380 has been on offer, Boeing's VLA market outlook has been more accurate than Airbus'.

However, if the VLA niche does start to grow rapidly, there is no reason why Boeing (or someone else) could not enter the market with a clean-sheet airplane. The 747-8I appears to be a lost cause already and will be clobbered by the 777-9X on one end and the A380 on the other. The -8F will probably soldier on as a low-volume program similar to the 767, but the market seems to have spoken and the 747 is no longer a major player.

On the other hand, the A380's Achilles' heel is that the airframe is fairly heavy for what it does, and while this can be addressed at the margin by weight reduction and stretches, it will be increasingly vulnerable to a CFRP competitor as time goes on. There is some debate today about how much weight a CFRP fuselage saves versus advanced aluminum alloys, but in another 10 years, I'd be shocked if CFRP is not the decisive winner - there's just much more scope for progress, and if no-autoclave curing is perfected, the cost will fall dramatically. Both manufacturers have stated that CFRP benefits increase disproportionately with aircraft size, so while it may not make sense for the A320NSR and 737RS, it should be a slam dunk at the top of the market.

Financially speaking, it's virtually impossible to argue that the A380 has been anything but a disaster for Airbus. They probably have only half the orders they need to reach breakeven, as the last figures we heard were in the 400s and that was many years ago, and mere breakeven is not exactly what one hopes to achieve on such a high-risk program. Meanwhile, the production ramp continues to be below projections and the wing issues are adding hundreds of millions of euros to program cost. Further, unless the A380 gets some significant orders soon, higher rate production may reduce unit costs but will run though the backlog awfully quickly. Unlike the equally catastrophic 787, which potentially can recover its overruns on volume, it's hard to see a surge in A380 orders that doesn't also attract competition from Airbus' rivals.

-B2707SST
Keynes is dead and we are living in his long run.
 
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readytotaxi
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 4:14 pm

A380 or B747 shape or size is not key for an airline in the future, but the development of engine technology is.
When you can build an engine that returns twice the power at half the burn rate you will control the sky.

Oh, and if it could run on salt water, yes please. 
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Bobloblaw
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 4:15 pm

Quoting mitris (Thread starter):
Sorry if this has been discussed before, but why Boeing is not designing an additional larger version of the B747-8i to compete with the A380?

There is barely a market for the A380 much less two of them. It would end up like the L1011 v DC10 debacle, which neither won.
 
rcair1
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 4:17 pm

Quoting CARST (Reply 25):
And if that happens, Boeing would come up with their own VLA design, because airlines would be asking them for an A380NEO competitor.

To date - Boeing's estimates for VLA market appear more realistic that Airbus's. I'm not seeing anything that will change that. I know there are lots of people who believe that we will be 'forced' to go to a travel model where you must travel in a few big buses with limited destinations rather than the model of more efficient smaller buses serving with flexibility. I would disagree with that based on the history of technology and advancement. Technology has continually moved to a world were people have more flexibility and freedom to act. The fact that I'm sitting here at my breakfast bar in my home in the mountains having this conversation with the world is an example.
I'm not going to pretend to understand how this will happen, but it is what I believe.

There will be a market for VLA - but it will be limited and focused on those routes where it is natural for people to travel that way.

Quoting 2175301 (Reply 29):
Their just isn't much of a market for very large aircraft. Certainly not worth spending more $Billions developing another variant

   By the time there is - something will have come along to change it.

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 33):
If Boeing saw no future in a VLA then why did they build the 748 in the first place?

It was relative cheap and easy - and they thought they needed something else than 'just' the 787. Companies do not progress by sitting around. Now - will it be financially successful. I think so - but based on the F model, not the i.

Quoting Daysleeper (Reply 33):
The A380 is the most efficient passenger transport available right now…

Only if configured correctly, carrying the right load on the right route. That, BTW, can be said for virtually any aircraft.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 40):
In order for it to be obsolete, there has to be something to replace it with.

Or the demand needs to be removed (which I guess is the same thing - but with a different bent). The "something" may not be an airplane. It may be a new energy source that makes small, frequent, flights more efficient. It could be a mass transmitter (hah!).
rcair1
 
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RE: Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?

Wed Nov 21, 2012 4:53 pm

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 48):
I know there are lots of people who believe that we will be 'forced' to go to a travel model where you must travel in a few big buses with limited destinations rather than the model of more efficient smaller buses serving with flexibility. I would disagree with that based on the history of technology and advancement. Technology has continually moved to a world were people have more flexibility and freedom to act.

The dynamics are different when soon there will be 6 times more people flying long haul than 10 years ago. Not all the Chinese will have the freedom to have a swimming pool in their garden even if they can.
Never trust the obvious

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