doulasc
Topic Author
Posts: 731
Joined: Sat Dec 17, 2011 5:12 pm

If National Was Bought By Texas Air And Not Pan Am

Tue Nov 27, 2012 3:10 pm

I know this subject has been brought up before,Here is my opinion. National Airlines name would have survived wth
home office to stay in Miami and a increase in the IAH Hub. It would have been what Continental has been over the
decades. Possible new paint scheme to replace the sun king. In the end it would be rebrand as United like what happened
with Continental.
Continental would have gone belly up or merge with someone else in the 1980s.
I think the reason the Pan Am merger did not work out was a combination of things.Deregulation making
it difficult for Pan Am to compete on their domestic routes,escalating fuel prices,going into a recession in the
early 1980s.Timing was not good for the merger. No matter what I think Pan Am would have still have shut down
when it did.
 
hiflyer
Posts: 1270
Joined: Wed Nov 24, 2004 1:38 am

RE: If National Was Bought By Texas Air And Not Pan Am

Tue Nov 27, 2012 8:43 pm

If, as you propose, the offices would have moved to IAH (as CO was in LAX and moved to IAH suddenly)....the home of Texas Air (re Lorenzo). PanAm...without overpaying for NA as they did, in the bid war , would have looked to other partners from a better position of strength... I doubt the Pacific would have sold in the 80's. I agree there would have been a merger for PanAm to gain an established domestic feed but probably something more balanced than southern tier oriented NA. Perhaps a UA/PA back in the mid to late 80's or perhaps a DL/PA....do not think EA would be in that mix...but AA could also have been a player as unions matched up between AA and PA which was considered important during that time. Lorenzo would still have unions (and both NA and NW were known then as Cobra Air as you never knew when they would strike.) However NA would have given Lorenzo the entier IAH airport with NA already building a hub there....as well as Europe from both JFK and MIA. The Frontier/Peoples/NYAir might have happend but the new NA might have been the ticket for PanAM in the late 80s as a partner....giving Lorenzo the entire world in about a 10 year span.
 
northstardc4m
Posts: 2724
Joined: Fri Apr 28, 2000 11:23 am

RE: If National Was Bought By Texas Air And Not Pan Am

Tue Nov 27, 2012 8:44 pm

If Lorenzo had gotten National and merged it with TIA, it changes many things:
1) Continental up in the air... and this has sub effects: People Express? New York Air? would they have been created?
2) Pan Am still looking for domestic feed
3) Eastern not ground into the dirt
4) Air Florida got a large part of it's base from Pan Am dropping National's routes ex-Florida, so it would of been badly affected...

Once you start pulling on those threads it changes the whole 80s and 90s for the airline industry as far as who lives, who gets merged into who, who goes bankrupt...

I can see:

National/TIA itself would of been something of a player... I can see it merging with someone else, Republic maybe?

Pan Am probably would of bought up smaller airlines, maybe USAir, Air Florida and/or Air Cal... and would of been able to build it's own hubs when the A320s came along, instead of trying to blend National's routes into a domestic feed which didn't work well.

Eastern is a big question mark in all this. Without Lorenzo, the mid 80s change drastically for EA, and without the PEX/NYA competition in the BOS-NY-WAS corridor and into Florida, Eastern's fortunes look very different. I can see them buying PSA and maybe Muse Air in the late 80s and maybe merging eventually with TWA (TWA+Ichan probably wouldn't of happened either...) producing a strong international airline.

United probably would be a much different airline today, and might of been the suitor for Continental but DEN would of been a big issue against that, and probably a limited trans-atlantic operation if any.

Delta... would they of still gotten Western?

American would be a different airline for sure, though maybe a healthier one... Piedmont possible merger?

America West, Southwest, Midway, Braniff, USAir, Piedmont, Northwest (Orient)... ?
Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.
 
Viscount724
Posts: 18846
Joined: Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:32 pm

RE: If National Was Bought By Texas Air And Not Pan Am

Wed Nov 28, 2012 12:58 am

It's also interesting to speculate how things would have developed if the Northwest-National merger agreed in 1971 hadn't been called off by National in 1972, before the CAB had announced their final position on the deal, although they had initially recommended that it be disapproved.
 
NorthstarBoy
Posts: 1416
Joined: Tue Jun 07, 2005 12:53 pm

RE: If National Was Bought By Texas Air And Not Pan Am

Wed Nov 28, 2012 12:20 pm

Considering that the feds (I assume) wouldn't allow the merger of CO and EA as they were both owned by Texas Air but continued to operate as separate brands until Eastern's demise, would they have even allowed CO and NA to merge? or would we have seen a combination of EA/NA instead with the National name surviving but perhaps with Eastern branding.

I do wonder sometimes, if NA had survived, what kind of fleet modernization program they'd have undertaken. MD-80s to replace the 727s and 767-300s to replace the DC-10s?
Yes, I'd like to see airbus go under so Boeing can have their customers!