Gonzalo
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Is The SSJ Sentenced To Fail In Western Countries?

Thu Nov 29, 2012 11:04 am

I'm not talking about the quality or safety of the aircraft itself, but about the real fact that there are so few orders, from so few operators from Western countries, that it looks like there is no real future, long term, for this model except maybe in Russia and its allies. If we took out the orders from Russian operators, or from operators of countries under the Russian influence, the orders are almost non existent. And the the SSJ must compete with the E-Jets, COMAC, C-Series, and even the An-148 in Russia too.

In addition, the financial shape of Sukhoi Civil Aircraft is not precisely good, with net losses of U$D 100M in the first half of 2012...


http://atwonline.com/airline-finance...ports-1h-net-loss-100-million-1128

Seems like there is no chance for the SSJ out or Russia ?

Rgds.
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XT6Wagon
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RE: Is The SSJ Sentenced To Fail In Western Countries?

Thu Nov 29, 2012 11:13 am

maybe you should give a plane more than a few months after one enters into service to judge how its doing in the market. Aircraft are NOT cheap plastic toys you can puke out by the thousands in a day.
 
PanHAM
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RE: Is The SSJ Sentenced To Fail In Western Countries?

Thu Nov 29, 2012 11:24 am

The cost pof the aircraft itself is really not so important, more important are the costs of operation. That inclues freliability of the aircraft itself, the spares service, maintenance and whatever else it takes.

Russian built aircraft have so far no proven track record that could encourage any western operators to buy.
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Gonzalo
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RE: Is The SSJ Sentenced To Fail In Western Countries?

Thu Nov 29, 2012 11:25 am

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 1):
maybe you should give a plane more than a few months after one enters into service to judge how its doing in the market. Aircraft are NOT cheap plastic toys you can puke out by the thousands in a day.

Ok, point taken.... but there are cases, several cases, of planes being sold like chocolate muffins even long time *before* EIS....

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Aquila3
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RE: Is The SSJ Sentenced To Fail In Western Countries?

Thu Nov 29, 2012 11:29 am

I would not mind the "westerns" . It certainly not where the growth is. And possibly not the realistic target of the SSJ.
Hoping the best for this project.
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DrColenzo
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RE: Is The SSJ Sentenced To Fail In Western Countries?

Thu Nov 29, 2012 11:46 am

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 2):

The cost pof the aircraft itself is really not so important, more important are the costs of operation. That inclues freliability of the aircraft itself, the spares service, maintenance and whatever else it takes.

Russian built aircraft have so far no proven track record that could encourage any western operators to buy.

Exactly, this is exactly how the market will be established for aircraft such as the SSJ and other similar projects from Russia and China.

If you want to see a case study of a similar situation, look at the Embraer ERJ family - it was a radical departure from the previous products the company produced and was released at a time when Embraer had narrowly avoided bankruptcy and was privatised by the Brazilian government. However, the ERJ gained from the reliable reputation of the EMB 120, used the technology developed for the stillborn Embraer/FMA CBA 123 Vector and used already proven US and European engines and avionics. As a result, the success of the E-Jet family was built on this reputation for reliability and east of use and Embraer can now think about offering a wider produce base in the future.

Russian or Chinese civilian aircraft can only succeed by following a similar path to build a reputation for cost effective and reliable operation. I think the Chinese are doing this well by sourcing engines and avionics from overseas and because their designs are 'clean-sheet' without a past, they will not suffer from the previous reputation that Russian products have.

However, I have to admit to be unsure about the western prospects of the SSJ, AN-148/158 or Irkut MS-21 - partially based upon the entry into service problems of the first two examples but also because the MS-21 won't be an entirely clear sheet design and will owe a partial debt to a project to evolve the Yak-42 into the 242 with two underwing PS-90 engines. That said, the Comac ARJ-21 is a rehashed DC-9/MD-80 with new engines, avionics and wings, the 717 followed a smilar concept smilar and works well despite low sales and so maybe the MS-21 will work out in the end?

My personal view is the SSJ will do fine but that it will only represent a stepping stone to better Russian model in the future.
 
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Aquila3
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RE: Is The SSJ Sentenced To Fail In Western Countries?

Thu Nov 29, 2012 12:09 pm

BTW I am flying quite a lot recently from VIE to the ex-URSS. Most of the times you get a cramped Fokker or an old 737 Classic in codeshare. A SSJ would be really welcome there. What plans AUA have for replacing its aging Fokker fleet (assuming AUA will survive at all) ?
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flyingturtle
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RE: Is The SSJ Sentenced To Fail In Western Countries?

Thu Nov 29, 2012 12:15 pm

Just to ask... when will the Indonesian accident investigation board publish its results?


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rfields5421
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RE: Is The SSJ Sentenced To Fail In Western Countries?

Thu Nov 29, 2012 12:24 pm

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 7):
when will the Indonesian accident investigation board publish its results?

Someone in that region will have to answer that question - but there was recently a thread on this forum announcing that the SSJ had passed certification tests in Indonesia and was now legal to carry paying passengers in that country.

To me that hints the SSJ accident report is going to come down to pilot error in flying too low in a high terrain area.
 
PanHAM
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RE: Is The SSJ Sentenced To Fail In Western Countries?

Thu Nov 29, 2012 1:06 pm

Quoting Aquila3 (Reply 6):
What plans AUA have for replacing its aging Fokker fleet (assuming AUA will survive at all) ?

Niki/Air Berlin have some E190s for sale  

Seriously, whatever mama tells them, most likely something build in Montreal.
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lightsaber
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RE: Is The SSJ Sentenced To Fail In Western Countries?

Thu Nov 29, 2012 2:25 pm

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 2):
Russian built aircraft have so far no proven track record that could encourage any western operators to buy.

   The SSJ must prove dispatch reliability, turn time, fuel burn, and maintenance economics.

Quoting Gonzalo (Reply 3):
but there are cases, several cases, of planes being sold like chocolate muffins even long time *before* EIS....

Only from vendors with a proven track record. The SSJ lacks that proven track record. It is is a reliable and economic aircraft, it will sell.

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lollomz
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RE: Is The SSJ Sentenced To Fail In Western Countries?

Thu Nov 29, 2012 3:23 pm

In my opinion SSJ will have more public when Interjet will start operations with it. Tha first plane will be delivered in Mexico in March 2013. Time will tell about the western market.

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TC957
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RE: Is The SSJ Sentenced To Fail In Western Countries?

Thu Nov 29, 2012 4:28 pm

I'm surprised the Iranian Airlines haven't ordered lots of them. Or are there too many American bits and pieces on a SSJ ?
 
srbmod
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RE: Is The SSJ Sentenced To Fail In Western Countries?

Thu Nov 29, 2012 9:25 pm

While the bulk of the orders have been from Russian and Asian carriers, there has been orders from Western carriers (Interjet and Blue Panorama) as well as Western a/c leasing firms (Willis Finance and Pearl Aircraft Corporation). One problem for Sukhoi is that they're trying to enter a crowded market and Western carriers have for the most part opted for the E-Jets and the CRJ-700/900/1000 for the market segment the Superjet fits into. They might see some additional orders from Western carriers, but unless they can get an order from a top tier Western airline, they will struggle to gain customers in the West.

Quoting TC957 (Reply 12):
I'm surprised the Iranian Airlines haven't ordered lots of them. Or are there too many American bits and pieces on a SSJ ?

There's quite a few US companies with involvement with the Superjet:

Boeing (Consultant)
B/E Aerospace (Interior)
Curtis-Wright (Fire protection system)
Honeywell (APU)
Parker Hannifin (Hydraulic system)
Hamilton Sundstrand (Electrical system)
Goodrich Corporation

The Powerjet SaM146 engine is based off the CFM56 developed jointly by GE Aviation and Snecma via their CFM International joint venture, so it may have enough US tech in it to fail under this as well.
 
r2rho
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RE: Is The SSJ Sentenced To Fail In Western Countries?

Fri Nov 30, 2012 11:04 am

Western Countries... so what?   The growth is elsewhere. The days when it was mandatory to sell in the West to be successful are over, an aircraft program can do perfectly fine selling in Asia, LatAm and Middle East only, without having a single a/c in the US or EU.

Of course, it would still be a big credibility boost for the program to land a customer there, and should be attempted. But with patience. Before any Western customer considers it, it needs to be operational in larger numbers with more customers, proving reliability, economics, etc.

The SSJ is the Russian industry's first serious post-Soviet attempt at an all-new a/c program and should be seen in the larger picture too - it is serving to consolidate and modernize the Russian industry as well as a stepping stone towards the MS-21, it is more than just about selling aircraft, although I'm confident it will at least break even.

Quoting lollomz (Reply 11):
In my opinion SSJ will have more public when Interjet will start operations with it. Tha first plane will be delivered in Mexico in March 2013. Time will tell about the western market.

Probably some routes will be operated into the US, giving the a/c some very valuable exposure there too.

Quoting srbmod (Reply 13):
I'm surprised the Iranian Airlines haven't ordered lots of them. Or are there too many American bits and pieces on a SSJ ?

There's quite a few US companies with involvement with the Superjet:

Correct, and that makes the SSJ a no-go for them, why is why they are getting An-148's/158's IIRC.
 
anrec80
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RE: Is The SSJ Sentenced To Fail In Western Countries?

Mon Dec 03, 2012 6:21 am

In fact there was an Italian customer, but they were gone because of delays. SSJ has been designed to receive EASA and FAA certification as a type, but that's not yet there. Once the certificates are obtained, I do see negotiations with Western airlines - there is no reason for that not to happen.

They will also look at reliability and performance. SU gets their 10 original planes replaced with newer built frames, since many improvements were necessary to bring the type to the promised specs. And Sukhoi is willing to do it. Nice - its like changing a car after a year of use or so.
 
ghost77
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RE: Is The SSJ Sentenced To Fail In Western Countries?

Mon Dec 03, 2012 8:07 am

Interjet is risking big but might at the end, gain big.

Compared to Embraer, the SSJ100 will be cheaper to buy/lease vs de E190.

Interjet just added recently 10 more options, that makes 30 SSJ in total.

Interjet will have around 10 SSJ100 by end of 2013.

Keep an eye on Interjet and it's operation. Interjet will open the market in the US as for sure few or new routes will be done with this jet.

g77
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Gipsy
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RE: Is The SSJ Sentenced To Fail In Western Countries?

Mon Dec 03, 2012 8:25 am

Besides the economy of the aircraft the support is a vital interest of operators. I only know that support for military aircraft built in Russia is a nightmare. Takes forever and costs a fortune. Even with Alenia being a partner I suspect that many fear being left alone with AOGs. If the economies are on track and the trust in the support chain can be established it will take up momentum. Otherwise not. And I think airlines now how to figure that out, even if just a few operators use this type.
 
r2rho
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RE: Is The SSJ Sentenced To Fail In Western Countries?

Mon Dec 03, 2012 12:59 pm

Quoting anrec80 (Reply 15):
In fact there was an Italian customer, but they were gone because of delays.

My understanding is that the survival of Blue Panorama is at stake, havinf filed for bankrupcty after a failed AZ acquisition deal, and that is the reason why these orders are "on hold" pending what will happen to the airline.

Quoting anrec80 (Reply 15):
SSJ has been designed to receive EASA and FAA certification as a type, but that's not yet there.

EASA certification was granted in february this year. No need for FAA certification as there are no US customers, but after having EASA it wouldn't be a huge deal, if a US customer shows interest they will surely do it.

Quoting anrec80 (Reply 15):
SU gets their 10 original planes replaced with newer built frames, since many improvements were necessary to bring the type to the promised specs.

source?
 
art
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RE: Is The SSJ Sentenced To Fail In Western Countries?

Mon Dec 03, 2012 2:21 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 10):
It is is a reliable and economic aircraft, it will sell.

Did you mean to write "If it is a reliable and economic aircraft, it will sell." ?

Quoting ghost77 (Reply 16):
Interjet will have around 10 SSJ100 by end of 2013.

So the production rate is rising? Has it been low because Sukhoi were modifying the design or for some other reason(s)?
 
SavannahMark
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RE: Is The SSJ Sentenced To Fail In Western Countries?

Mon Dec 03, 2012 4:35 pm

Not sure if this link has been posted before during conversations about the Sukhoi Superjet but it still appears to be as applicable as ever:

http://www.flightglobal.com/features...hoi-superjet/selling-the-superjet/
 
strfyr51
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RE: Is The SSJ Sentenced To Fail In Western Countries?

Mon Dec 03, 2012 4:48 pm

If the SSJ comes in and is reliable and at a GOOD price?? The airplane will sell. BUT! Because the prime contractors have only a limited western exposure? The Price had BETTER be good, and I mean REAL GOOD !! they'd better Not be counting on much more than Razor Thin Profits for a LONG time or they won't be selling anything in the west since they have no real track record in the commercial jet market.
 
ghost77
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RE: Is The SSJ Sentenced To Fail In Western Countries?

Thu Dec 06, 2012 6:54 am

Quoting art (Reply 19):
So the production rate is rising? Has it been low because Sukhoi were modifying the design or for some other reason(s)?

Sukhoi has commited to delivery 1 frame every month from March.

Interjet due to crew trainning has ordered to received the first one in March. First SSJ100 was due for January.

Seems things are getting faster day by day.

g77
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SKAirbus
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RE: Is The SSJ Sentenced To Fail In Western Countries?

Thu Dec 06, 2012 9:29 am

Russian airliners are catching up with their western counterparts but in terms of innovation, they have very little to offer when you compare with the likes of Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Embraer etc. At the moment Sukhoi cannot compete with the level of investment in the aforementioned companies and although a lot of western assistance has been sought building the SSJ, it lacks something.

I also can't see how the SSJ fits into the Aeroflot fleet other than the Russian government pressuring the airline to purchase it.

Then again, I wouldn't write it off just yet.
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RE: Is The SSJ Sentenced To Fail In Western Countries?

Thu Dec 06, 2012 1:03 pm

By the end of the year Sky Aviation Indonesia will receive the first aircraft; at the moment there is a pre-delivery ispection in Ulianovsk: http://www.superjetinternational.com...ts-first-sukhoi-superjet-100/2012/
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connies4ever
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RE: Is The SSJ Sentenced To Fail In Western Countries?

Thu Dec 06, 2012 1:21 pm

Quoting r2rho (Reply 18):
Quoting anrec80 (Reply 15):
SU gets their 10 original planes replaced with newer built frames, since many improvements were necessary to bring the type to the promised specs.

source?

Can't remember the issue, but 8-9 months ago "AIR International" had a feature on the SSJ that seemed to indicate engine sfc was about 3% over target, and weight was around 1000 kg over spec. For a small aircraft, that is big.

Sukhoi seem to be focussing their attention on a SSJ-NG. If so, likely indicates even they think the current model is a bit of a dud.

Then there is the issue of product support, for which the Soviet/Russian industry has been seen to be lagging. Mind you, that allegation has been aimed at BBD as well.
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art
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RE: Is The SSJ Sentenced To Fail In Western Countries?

Thu Dec 06, 2012 2:33 pm

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 25):
Can't remember the issue, but 8-9 months ago "AIR International" had a feature on the SSJ that seemed to indicate engine sfc was about 3% over target, and weight was around 1000 kg over spec. For a small aircraft, that is big.

Sukhoi seem to be focussing their attention on a SSJ-NG. If so, likely indicates even they think the current model is a bit of a dud.

Are you saying that (a) performance falls short of what is guaranteed or (b) Sukhoi think they need to make significant improvements to the SSJ for it to sell successfully against the competition?
 
connies4ever
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RE: Is The SSJ Sentenced To Fail In Western Countries?

Thu Dec 06, 2012 2:43 pm

Quoting art (Reply 26):
Are you saying that (a) performance falls short of what is guaranteed or (b) Sukhoi think they need to make significant improvements to the SSJ for it to sell successfully against the competition?

Both. Existing SSJ can't meet guarantees, if you believe AIR International (and I tend to). And Sukhoi by focussing more on an NG version tells me that they're NOT going to focus on getting the existing product to meet the original guarantees. The fact that the
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