Lots of stuff happening on this route at the moment. It looks like QF
will be out of international 767s by the end of March, making for pretty coincidental timing overall, especially with JQ
also commencing nonstop MEL
in a couple of weeks.
It's hard to know what to expect. For all that I think the route must have some financial value to QF
given they've kept it while cutting so many others, they don't seem to be very well placed to compete. They either have to go up to an A332 with lots more J capacity, up to an A333 with lots more Y capacity or down to a domestic 767 with a product that is beaten by the 25% of JQ
's fleet with the new seats/AVOD.
It should also be pointed out that QF
/JQ go 14 weekly to HNL
through April (11 from SYD
, 3 from MEL
) so will still have more flights and capacity overall.
1. The market prices the services, not QF
. While the product isn't particularly good by QF
standards, it's still the best in this market and will still attract the high end Australian based traffic which is headed to any one of the numerous extremely high end resorts/hotels that Hawaii boasts.
Obviously the pricing isn't an issue though, because the route must be financially positive otherwise it would have been passed over to JQ
years ago. If the plane is full of passengers paying these very high fares then it'll be very profitable, if it's full of passengers burning points then it must be an efficient way for QF
to reduce points liabilities. QF
has literally no other reason to keep this route if it's not making money for them in some way (unlike JFK
perhaps, which could be seen as part of a competitive strategy for retaining corporate contracts that also spend elsewhere in the network).
's crews on SYD
are Australian based, so are covered by Australian contracts and labour laws. I imagine that it's actually HA
who pays their crews the least on this route.
hasn't driven anyone out of the market, and certainly won't any time soon. QF
/JQ have actually grown a little over the past 2 years, and will add about 20% to their capacity in a couple of weeks with MEL
has expanded on the back of a strong AUD which has thrown this market wide open -- if our dollar halved in value tomorrow, so too would their services. QF
/JQ will be far better protected financially than HA
if/when the AUD drops again, and won't be anywhere near as hardly hit.