Gonzalo
Topic Author
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Who Will Take Over T4 In MAD After IB Shrinks?

Mon Dec 03, 2012 11:39 am

With the announcement of IB of the big reduction in the fleet and workers, the new T4 of MAD could face a big reduction in its activity. But an investment of more than 5 Billion of Euros should be useful for someone.... Who can get the space in T4 after IB reduce its presence there ?? Could a foreign carrier ( LA, AF, LH ) take an advantage from this ?

Just asking...

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PDPsol
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RE: Who Will Take Over T4 In MAD After IB Shrinks?

Mon Dec 03, 2012 1:59 pm

IB and its IAG and oneworld partners, one would imagine:

Vueling... once IAG completes its tender offer for VY's publicly-held shares

BA... greater integration via LHR

AA... taking over North Atlantic flights IB is winding down

LA... taking over South Atlantic flights IB is winding down
 
SCL767
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RE: Who Will Take Over T4 In MAD After IB Shrinks?

Mon Dec 03, 2012 9:50 pm

Quoting PDPsol (Reply 1):
LA... taking over South Atlantic flights IB is winding down

Also, TAM will eventually switch over to T4 at Barajas.
 
r2rho
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RE: Who Will Take Over T4 In MAD After IB Shrinks?

Tue Dec 04, 2012 9:31 am

Quoting PDPsol (Reply 1):
Vueling... once IAG completes its tender offer for VY's publicly-held shares

BA... greater integration via LHR

AA... taking over North Atlantic flights IB is winding down

LA... taking over South Atlantic flights IB is winding down

Exactly. Particularly LAN-TAM will be more than happy to take over the LatAm routes that IB gives up. VY... depends on what happens with IB Express. The initial plan was to have VY at BCN and I2 at MAD, but depending on how IB ends up VY may take over all short-haul too. Not sure about BA - they will want to route everything possible via LHR first before adding anything in MAD. AA OTOH could be more interested.

Quoting Gonzalo (Thread starter):
AF, LH ) take an advantage from this ?

Highly unlikely. AF-KL have a growing and successful LatAm operation through their hubs, they will not cannibalize it. LH... would depend on whether they buy TP or not. But right now they are concentrating on getting all their acquired subsidiaries in order first, I don't see them taking on any more expansion in the short term.
 
jfk777
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RE: Who Will Take Over T4 In MAD After IB Shrinks?

Tue Dec 04, 2012 7:45 pm

Synergy buys TAP and creates a huge Portugal based Iberian Peninsula airline group to go along with Avianca/ TACA with the main hub in Lisbon based around TAP. The Spanish based cousin starts flying to the Spanish Latin Americas from MAD, kind of like Iberia but with 787's. TAP Spain becomes like Virgin Atlantic in MAD. The 787 also start flying to JFK, MIA, Tokyo, Singapore and Peking.
 
PDPsol
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RE: Who Will Take Over T4 In MAD After IB Shrinks?

Tue Dec 04, 2012 8:04 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 4):
Synergy buys TAP and creates a huge Portugal based Iberian Peninsula airline group to go along with Avianca/ TACA with the main hub in Lisbon based around TAP. The Spanish based cousin starts flying to the Spanish Latin Americas from MAD, kind of like Iberia but with 787's. TAP Spain becomes like Virgin Atlantic in MAD. The 787 also start flying to JFK, MIA, Tokyo, Singapore and Peking.

This is quite a grandiose plan, we shall see...

Perhaps the first thing Synergy need to do is further develop its presence in and from the most important commercial aviation market in Latin America, Brasil. Avianca Brasil is owned directly by Synergy, which is the majority shareholder in AV. TP gives Synergy Europe-Brasil and one would imagine they would need a lot of work to do integrating all these carriers, before they can create the "Virgin Atlantic of Barajas" to challenge IB.

AV still needs to fully integrate i) all the TA carriers, LR, T0, etc.; ii) AeroGal, 2K; iii) potentially acquire Sky in Chile, H2; iv) AV Brasil, O6, with Star Alliance; etc., plus acquire and integrate TP. They have their work cut out for them, indeed.
 
C010T3
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RE: Who Will Take Over T4 In MAD After IB Shrinks?

Tue Dec 04, 2012 9:08 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 4):
Synergy buys TAP and creates a huge Portugal based Iberian Peninsula airline group to go along with Avianca/ TACA with the main hub in Lisbon based around TAP. The Spanish based cousin starts flying to the Spanish Latin Americas from MAD, kind of like Iberia but with 787's. TAP Spain becomes like Virgin Atlantic in MAD. The 787 also start flying to JFK, MIA, Tokyo, Singapore and Peking.

That's not really realistic. If Synergy succeeds in acquiring TAP, the only logical step is to strengthen LIS. Flights to all AviancaTaca's hubs should be launched and from LIS TAP would increase the Iberian footprint. AviancaTaca could even grow at MAD, but solely on the account of O&D traffic. Connections would all be funnelled through LIS.
 
jfk777
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RE: Who Will Take Over T4 In MAD After IB Shrinks?

Tue Dec 04, 2012 9:48 pm

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 6):
That's not really realistic. If Synergy succeeds in acquiring TAP, the only logical step is to strengthen LIS. Flights to all AviancaTaca's hubs should be launched and from LIS TAP would increase the Iberian footprint. AviancaTaca could even grow at MAD, but solely on the account of O&D traffic. Connections would all be funnelled through LIS.

Lisbon is a great hub from Brazil but how is it going to play in Mexico, Santo Domingo, Panama, Bogota, Lima, Santiago, and EZE ? All those cities having flights to Madrid and CDG, really don't need another hub for connecting traffic.
 
C010T3
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RE: Who Will Take Over T4 In MAD After IB Shrinks?

Tue Dec 04, 2012 10:32 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 7):
Lisbon is a great hub from Brazil but how is it going to play in Mexico, Santo Domingo, Panama, Bogota, Lima, Santiago, and EZE ? All those cities having flights to Madrid and CDG, really don't need another hub for connecting traffic.

GIG and GRU do not need LIS and, last time I checked both of these cities are better or as well as connected to Europe than/as any other LatAm city. I don't see how LIS is worse than MAD as connecting point to any origin in Latin America. The only downside at LIS is the infrastructure of the terminal.
Passengers that choose AviancaTaca as their airline will use LIS as their gateway to Europe when their destination is not reachable nonstop. If a passenger would like to fly BOG-VLC, BOG-LIS-VLC will be the a good alternative.
 
jfk777
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RE: Who Will Take Over T4 In MAD After IB Shrinks?

Tue Dec 04, 2012 11:39 pm

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 8):
GIG and GRU do not need LIS and, last time I checked both of these cities are better or as well as connected to Europe than/as any other LatAm city

thankyou my point exactly, most Latin cities don't need LIS.

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 8):
I don't see how LIS is worse than MAD as connecting point to any origin in Latin America. The only downside at LIS is the infrastructure of the terminal

Its not that Lisbon is "worse" but since most Latin cities already have connections over MAD they do not need LIS.
 
C010T3
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RE: Who Will Take Over T4 In MAD After IB Shrinks?

Tue Dec 04, 2012 11:49 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 9):
thankyou my point exactly, most Latin cities don't need LIS.

Don't twist what I'm saying. GIG and GRU don't need MAD as well. Is it of your opinion that there should be no IB flights from those destinations?
GIG and GRU don't need LIS, but have service to it and those flights are quite successful because of TAP's onward connections at LIS.