art
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Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

2000-2010 Rich In New Designs. Any New 2010-2020?

Wed Dec 12, 2012 10:26 am

The first decade of this century saw a wave of new design programs: Airbus A380, Boeing 787, Airbus A350, AVIC ARJ21 (if that qualifies as a new design), COMAC C919, Sukhoi Superjet, Irkut MS21, Bombardier C Series, Mitsubishi RJ.

Apart from a new design from Embraer will the 2010-2020 period be remembered as a decade devoid of new designs? (If the 777X is launched, would that qualify as a new design? I don't count re-engining an existing frame a la A320NEO or 787 MAX as a new design.)

It would be interesting if someone designed a direct B757 replacement. Or an A300/A310 replacement. But I don't see that happening.

Anyone see a fresh design this decade from anyone except Embraer? If so, what and from where and from whom?
 
na
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Joined: Sun Dec 12, 1999 3:52 am

RE: 2000-2010 Rich In New Designs. Any New 2010-2020?

Wed Dec 12, 2012 10:45 am

Some of the new designs you quote for the 2000-2010 period are not even flying nor where there any parts built in the first decade so they should be counted for the second decade, like the A350 or C-series.

As for the 777X, if it ever flies is still uncertain and it´ll be the same tube so not really a new design, and if so, it´ll fly 2020 the earliest, plus recent experiences make it likely even if they aim at 2020 it´ll be 2021/22 in reality. There is a chance that the 777 will be axed in the 2020s and Boeing might find it wiser to build a totally new plane which would also replacing the 748I. I expect Airbus to launch the A380-900, though that isnt a new plane either.

What could happen is that there will be something from China, maybe a smaller widebody of A330/787 size. But such plane wont fly before 2020, perhaps even 2025.

It´ll be interesting to see how the 737max with their ancient relation will do against the A320neo. If one proves inferior to the other and today´s roughly 50/50 sales share significantly shifts to one side I could see the loser launching a completely new product around the end of the decade. I hope that happens so the boring A320/737 duopoly finally ends in the 2020s.

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