777fan
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LA Times: US-AA Merger Announcement In Jan?

Sat Dec 15, 2012 1:18 pm

Nothing terribly new here, although I personally have two questions: assuming this becomes a reality, what will happen with the US fortress at PHX given the new carrier's megahub at LAX, and how would a 70-30 split affect the Boeing-Airbus fleet dynamic in the future? Discuss...

http://www.chicagotribune.com/busine...ys-merger-20121215,0,7243592.story

777fan
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usairways85
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RE: LA Times: US-AA Merger Announcement In Jan?

Sat Dec 15, 2012 2:26 pm

Quoting 777fan (Thread starter):
assuming this becomes a reality, what will happen with the US fortress at PHX given the new carrier's megahub at LAX,

Does US really have a fortress in PHX with WN there as well? And I wouldn't exactly call AA's current LAX presence as a megahub.

As for what happens, no one really knows, but there are a number of threads with many speculations.
 
midway7
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RE: LA Times: US-AA Merger Announcement In Jan?

Sat Dec 15, 2012 2:34 pm

I've not been following the AA bankruptcy very closely. Has AA made any decision on the ORD leases yet? I've always felt that ORD is the odd man out with respect to AA hubs.

How would a US-AA merger affect the ORD hub?

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RE: LA Times: US-AA Merger Announcement In Jan?

Sat Dec 15, 2012 3:03 pm

IF AA & US merge, I'd expect JFK to remain as active as possible with International destinations and the premium trans-cons with the new 321's when they come on line. PHL will be more effective at routing connections through to Europe from the NE, Midwest and West Coast. CLT will keep some connections and direct flights to good traffic markets. MIA will be the gateway for S. America and the Caribbean. DFW will be HQ, ORD will become redundant and reduce capacity, PHX will surely die as fast as BNA and RDU did, when AA gave up there. LAX will be the new carriers Pacific gateway, but I doubt you will see AA compete flying the west coast, QQ and OC are testament to the lack of commitment to the west coast on both carriers part, it's much easier to have AS do that for them. I think this is another forced merger that will make some very happy, and others who get screwed, very unhappy, of course.
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RE: LA Times: US-AA Merger Announcement In Jan?

Sat Dec 15, 2012 3:14 pm

There does seem to be an air of inevitability about it.

Despite what Horton et al say about it, one would think it'd be best to know the merger was going to happen now and use BK to structure the AA side of the airline accordingly. As much power as AA execs think they have to shape events, they really serve at the whim of the debtor's committee.

Winners: US management, AA rank and file
Losers: AA management, US rank and file (IMHO)

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 3):
PHX will surely die as fast as BNA and RDU did, when AA gave up there. LAX will be the new carriers Pacific gateway, but I doubt you will see AA compete flying the west coast, QQ and OC are testament to the lack of commitment to the west coast on both carriers part, it's much easier to have AS do that for them. I think this is another forced merger that will make some very happy, and others who get screwed, very unhappy, of course.

Sad/ironic that the US-West side will probably be big losers in all of this.
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RE: LA Times: US-AA Merger Announcement In Jan?

Sat Dec 15, 2012 3:18 pm

Quoting 777fan (Thread starter):
LA Times: US-AA Merger Announcement In Jan?
Quoting 777fan (Thread starter):
http://www.chicagotribune.com/busine...ys-merger-20121215,0,7243592.story

Which paper is it now?  


I am personally more worried that US will might leave oneworld, although that is not confirmed. Will it be one airline, one brand, or a merger like BA-Iberia and AF-KLM ? Keeping both brands.
 
dank
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RE: LA Times: US-AA Merger Announcement In Jan?

Sat Dec 15, 2012 4:21 pm

Quoting KL911 (Reply 5):
Which paper is it now?

Tribune company owns both. The byline is actually the LA Times.
 
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RE: LA Times: US-AA Merger Announcement In Jan?

Sat Dec 15, 2012 4:37 pm

Quoting KL911 (Reply 5):
I am personally more worried that US will might leave oneworld, although that is not confirmed.

Doug Parker said a while back that should a merger occur, US would leave Star Alliance and join OneWorld. I've said all along that I won't start taking this AA/US merger business seriously until US leaves *A for OW. To me, the fact that US hasn't done so yet shows a lack of commitment on their part.
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ldvaviation
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RE: LA Times: US-AA Merger Announcement In Jan?

Sat Dec 15, 2012 4:40 pm

Quoting dank (Reply 6):
Tribune company owns both. The byline is actually the LA Times.

For that reason, I would not put much faith in this story.

The LA times has become a very sad paper, a shell of its former self. This story is the perfect example. It is pure speculation based on what the headlines are. There is no credible, inside source in the story for the January date.
 
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RE: LA Times: US-AA Merger Announcement In Jan?

Sat Dec 15, 2012 4:53 pm

Quoting 777fan (Thread starter):
given the new carrier's megahub at LAX,

US would add three gates at the WN terminal, and a hangar that can't hold an A320 without the tail sticking out. Where is this mega-hub to come from? We really don't have extra gate space lying around here.

Quoting TSS (Reply 7):
To me, the fact that US hasn't done so yet shows a lack of commitment on their part.

Parker's negotiated openly with all of AA's unions, said he'd change his company's name, move HQ about 1000mi and made proposals to the UCC. How much more committed can he be? Left up to US, this merger is absolutely going to happen, post haste.

I do agree that they should have left *A though. They never really benefited much there.
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RE: LA Times: US-AA Merger Announcement In Jan?

Sat Dec 15, 2012 4:58 pm

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 9):
US would add three gates at the WN terminal, and a hangar that can't hold an A320 without the tail sticking out. Where is this mega-hub to come from? We really don't have extra gate space lying around here.

If the merger happens, it would mostly likely mean that Southwest gets all of T1 to itself and that AA hastens the move of its International ops to the new TBIT to accommodate the US flights at T4.
 
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RE: LA Times: US-AA Merger Announcement In Jan?

Sat Dec 15, 2012 5:01 pm

Quoting LDVAviation (Reply 10):

I'm sure. I'm just saying that US adds almost nothing to AA's overall mass at LAX. It'll take a damned sight more than a merger for AA to ever call LAX a mega-hub. Focus city is generous at this point...
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RE: LA Times: US-AA Merger Announcement In Jan?

Sat Dec 15, 2012 5:14 pm

Quoting TSS (Reply 7):
I've said all along that I won't start taking this AA/US merger business seriously until US leaves *A for OW. To me, the fact that US hasn't done so yet shows a lack of commitment on their part.

Of course they wouldn't announce it until they announced the merger. You announce things like this all at once.

Quoting 777fan (Thread starter):
what will happen with the US fortress at PHX given the new carrier's megahub at LAX

The new carrier would have a big focus city at LAX, not a "megahub."

PHX is in trouble whether or not US and AA merge. Yields just aren't there, and it will shrink.

Quoting 777fan (Thread starter):
and how would a 70-30 split affect the Boeing-Airbus fleet dynamic in the future?

For the narrowbodies, it's obvious: they'll operate both 737s and A32S for a long time to come, and new orders will be from whomever gives them the best deal.

The interesting question is what happens with the widebodies. The US A350 order and the AA 789 order don't make a lot of sense together. What would seem to me to make the most sense would be to upsize the A350 variants ordered and defer the order for awhile, allowing it to replace some AA 772s and US 333s, while taking 789s as soon as possible to replace US's 762s and AA's oldest 763s.

[Edited 2012-12-15 09:17:25]
 
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RE: LA Times: US-AA Merger Announcement In Jan?

Sat Dec 15, 2012 5:25 pm

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 12):
The new carrier would have a big focus city at LAX, not a "megahub."

PHX is in trouble whether or not US and AA merge. Yields just aren't there, and it will shrink.

PHX is going to give some, as will ORD. To what extent I don't know, but the resources can be redeployed into solidfying their positions at places like LAX. With DL growing in SEA, and UA at SFO I think AA should put their resources into LAX. Try to develop a Pacific network based from LAX.
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RE: LA Times: US-AA Merger Announcement In Jan?

Sat Dec 15, 2012 5:26 pm

Quoting TSS (Reply 7):
Doug Parker said a while back that should a merger occur, US would leave Star Alliance and join OneWorld. I've said all along that I won't start taking this AA/US merger business seriously until US leaves *A for OW. To me, the fact that US hasn't done so yet shows a lack of commitment on their part.

After the merger is announced, no doubt there will be a time table set up for US entrance into OW from *A. Until then, US benefits and is happy as a *A member. No need to leave the alliance if a merger hasnt been finalized.
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RE: LA Times: US-AA Merger Announcement In Jan?

Sat Dec 15, 2012 5:39 pm

I am one of the AA purist who hopes this merger never happens. US does nothing for AA, and Doug Parker has no clue how to run a premium global airline. He ran America West and has still yet to successfully merege the two airlines. I hope that somehow he get a big payoff to walk away. Doug Parker...Keep your hAAnds of my AA!
 
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RE: LA Times: US-AA Merger Announcement In Jan?

Sat Dec 15, 2012 5:48 pm

Quoting JoePatroni707 (Reply 15):

Blah , blah , blah , blah .. Do you have anything substantial to add to this thread instead of the same old nonsense people keep saying about US ?
 
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RE: LA Times: US-AA Merger Announcement In Jan?

Sat Dec 15, 2012 6:09 pm

Quoting JoePatroni707 (Reply 15):
US does nothing for AA

In this case, since US would be the acquiring airline, it's not a matter of what US does for AA but rather what AA does for US and of course, that's plenty.

Quoting JoePatroni707 (Reply 15):
Doug Parker has no clue how to run a premium global airline. He ran America West and has still yet to successfully merege the two airlines.

Funny that. Measured by system traffic US is the 10th largest airline in the world and flies to 4 continents, the Carribbean, and Central America. US is making money and are at or near the top of the heap when it comes to operational performance. I would say that even though certain aspects of their merger are not complete (non customer facing) that by and large the merger has been successful hence their great profits of late.

Quoting JoePatroni707 (Reply 15):
Doug Parker...Keep your hAAnds of my AA

Doug Parker (a Crandall protege) is just what AA needs. All of AA's unions agree and so do I. He will make the new AA a great worldwide competitor for many years to come.

[Edited 2012-12-15 10:14:06]
 
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RE: LA Times: US-AA Merger Announcement In Jan?

Sat Dec 15, 2012 6:42 pm

Quoting 777fan (Thread starter):
Nothing terribly new here, although I personally have two questions: assuming this becomes a reality, what will happen with the US fortress at PHX given the new carrier's megahub at LAX, and how would a 70-30 split affect the Boeing-Airbus fleet dynamic in the future? Discuss...

http://www.chicagotribune.com/busine...ys-merger-20121215,0,7243592.story

Why do you title the thread "LA Times:" then you link the Chicago tribune? Which one is it? Either way I think this merger happens.

Quoting JoePatroni707 (Reply 15):
Doug Parker has no clue how to run a premium global airline. He ran America West and has still yet to successfully merege the two airlines. I hope that somehow he get a big payoff to walk away. Doug Parker...Keep your hAAnds of my AA!

It doesn't appear that not having all the unions get together really matters. Parker has found a way to make profits and that's all the shareholders really care about.


WW
 
ldvaviation
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RE: LA Times: US-AA Merger Announcement In Jan?

Sat Dec 15, 2012 7:23 pm

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 11):
I'm sure. I'm just saying that US adds almost nothing to AA's overall mass at LAX. It'll take a damned sight more than a merger for AA to ever call LAX a mega-hub. Focus city is generous at this point...

Not completely sure about this... AA gets a lot of feed from its one world partners at LAX, hence the rationale for the T4/TBIT connector. In that way, LAX functions like a hub for AA

With the merger, AA would be able to add PHL and CLT to its trans-con roster. Whether it would keep as many of the current frequencies as US, that I don't know.

As to the PHX stuff from LAX, that's the "almost nothing."
 
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RE: LA Times: US-AA Merger Announcement In Jan?

Sat Dec 15, 2012 7:25 pm

Please continue the discussion the existing thread:

US Airways Makes Formal Merger Offer For AA (by 777law Dec 7 2012 in Civil Aviation)
 
777fan
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RE: LA Times: US-AA Merger Announcement In Jan?

Sat Dec 15, 2012 7:34 pm

Quoting KL911 (Reply 5):
Which paper is it now?
Quoting wwtraveler99 (Reply 18):
Why do you title the thread "LA Times:" then you link the Chicago tribune? Which one is it? Either way I think this merger happens.
Quoting dank (Reply 6):

Tribune company owns both. The byline is actually the LA Times.

As 'dank' pointed out, the article was written and originally published by the LA Times (hence the LA angle to the content), but was concurrently run by the Chicago Tribune which owns both rags. I accessed the article through the Tribune's website.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 1):
Does US really have a fortress in PHX with WN there as well? And I wouldn't exactly call AA's current LAX presence as a megahub.
Quoting seabosdca (Reply 12):
The new carrier would have a big focus city at LAX, not a "megahub."

Do tell: what is the measurement for a "megahub," and "fortress," or a "big focus city?" They're all subjective to an extent and honestly, would it really matter if I call it a "super-duper-mega-giganto-fortress-focus-castle-headquarter-hub?"

Back to the OP, I also believe this is a matter of time and would expect US to hold onto its *A membership until everything is signed, sealed and delivered, at which point they'll obviously head to OW. Dumping part of PHX for LAX is a no-brainer, as many have pointed out. Likewise, the new carrier would have a huge NYC presence with US' LGA presence and AA's JFK hub. That said, what would become of PHL? The market's big enough for a substantial amount of O&D, but would it stand to lose some international operations to JFK?

Quoting STT757 (Reply 13):
PHX is going to give some, as will ORD.

AA has been "adjusting" its ORD operations for a few years now and US offers only a token number of dailies to its hubs. No doubt they'd merge what they have with virtually no overlap; I'm not sure they'd really have to give anything up. On that note, I wonder who'd take over the US gates in terminal 2? I'm guessing both DL or either UA or AC would like to add some space...

777fan
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