Dash9
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Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Wed Dec 19, 2012 9:11 pm

Hello. An unidentified client has ordered 12+18 CS100.

Press released: http://www.bombardier.com/en/corpora...ses/details?docID=0901260d8027f220

This is good news for the program a few weeks after admitting to a delay of first flight.

So lets the speculation begin. Who is it?

On a side note, why are there so many CS clients that wish to remain unidentified? Scope clause negotiation?


-Dash9
 
FDH
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Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Wed Dec 19, 2012 9:26 pm

Also, it is worth mentioning here that the carrier is based in the Americas (as specified in the news release). Also, it is a Letter of Intent at this point.

FDH
 
Dash9
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Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Wed Dec 19, 2012 9:41 pm

Quoting FDH (Reply 1):
carrier is based in the Americas

True. If it would be north America I think they would have mentioned it. My feeling is its for a central/south American carrier.


Since its a LOI that is not binding, would it be possible for a manufacturer to 'forge' fake LOI to gain momentum on a program? Since there is no financial commitment they don't have to disclose it for stock market regulators. I'm not implying its the case, just asking i it would be possible. Again, I'm surprised by the number of undisclosed customers...


-Dash9
 
iFlyLOTs
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Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Wed Dec 19, 2012 9:47 pm

Quoting Dash9 (Reply 2):
True. If it would be north America I think they would have mentioned it. My feeling is its for a central/south American carrier.

That's my feeling too. So who in Central/South America could use a plane like this? AV? LAN? Those would be my guess if they were going to use it as an A318 replacement. But other than that I have no idea who it could be.
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JoeCanuck
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Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Wed Dec 19, 2012 10:12 pm

I'm guessing a S.American airline...one that can really use the high/hot/short field capabilities of the aircraft.

Quoting Dash9 (Reply 2):

Since its a LOI that is not binding, would it be possible for a manufacturer to 'forge' fake LOI to gain momentum on a program?

Too easy to have that exposed...which would create all sorts of nasty securities issues. Besides, the CSeries is doing well enough that they don't need an artificial boost, especially this close to first flight.

[Edited 2012-12-19 14:29:38]
What the...?
 
YVRLTN
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RE: Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Thu Dec 20, 2012 2:11 am

LATAM or AV/TA is my guess - former F100 operators.
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totesen
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RE: Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Thu Dec 20, 2012 3:49 am

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 5):
LATAM or AV/TA is my guess - former F100 operators.

But also TA is currently a Embraer 190 Operator, i really doupt they will change that. Specially if they are merging both companies.
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ytz
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RE: Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Thu Dec 20, 2012 3:49 am

Fake customer? I doubt it. But I'm curious who ask these mystery customers are. And I can't believe that other airlines and OEMs don't know who they are. They all have teams of business intelligence analysts who would be figuring it out.
 
Jean Leloup
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RE: Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Thu Dec 20, 2012 3:50 am

All of these little, unidentified orders... probably good for the program in the long run if they all pan out, but not great at getting the media and public imagination excited.

First flight, whenever it is, can't come soon enough. The consensus seems to be that a successful flight test program, and movement toward production, is what will really determine sales in the medium term. Until then there is just a lot of speculation, and a little frustration/impatience on the part of a.netters, myself included!

JL
Next flight.... who knows.
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Thu Dec 20, 2012 4:31 am

Congrats to Bombardier and the C-series. This is good news. If confirmed, it brings the order book to 150!   

I wish it was a firm order, otherwise 2012 will exit with a mere 5 orders. Cest la vie. At least Bombardier has avoided a year with zero sales.   

Quoting Dash9 (Reply 2):
would it be possible for a manufacturer to

Why when they were exposed, and they would be, it would have consequences far worse than any potential benefit.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 4):
Besides, the CSeries is doing well enough that they don't need an artificial boost, especially this close to first flight.

   It is encouraging to receive a LOI during what is normally a 'dead time' for orders!

Quoting Jean Leloup (Reply 8):
All of these little, unidentified orders... probably good for the program in the long run if they all pan out

Even better when one of those little orders becomes a big one. It all depends on if the plane meets promise or not. If so... sales will build. I fully expect sales to build.

Quoting Jean Leloup (Reply 8):
The consensus seems to be that a successful flight test program, and movement toward production, is what will really determine sales in the medium term.

At this point, any wise airline would wait to see the inflight and possibly in service performance. It is simply a tough time to sell any non-derivative aircraft.

Lightsaber
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ytz
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RE: Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Thu Dec 20, 2012 4:46 am

@lightsaber

Surprised we haven't seen more LOIs. Airlines could get these for cheap (maybe even free). They get to reserve a spot. Not commit capital. And back out if BBD can't deliver. So why not more LOIs?
 
mingocr83
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RE: Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Thu Dec 20, 2012 7:23 am

Well, AV just announced a order for 15 ATR's. They will replace older ATR42's in Central America, and some will go to AV in different routes.

BUT

TA/LR is not happy with the Embraers because of underbelly constraints with cargo. There are 12 on the fleet as we speak. Could be a possibility though for AV to get this planes...AV has 14 Fokkers... as well 10 F50s and 4 F100s....those 15 planes seems like a match...
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r2rho
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RE: Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Thu Dec 20, 2012 9:59 am

Quoting Dash9 (Thread starter):
why are there so many CS clients that wish to remain unidentified? Scope clause negotiation?

Strange indeed. I count 5 unidentified customers, of which 3 are even firm orders from back in 2011, and 2 are LOI's from 2012. A total of 40 "unidentified" aircraft (+options) if all are firmed up. All these mystery customers have only ordered the CS100, not the CS300. So your theory of scope clause negotiations being behind sounds plausible...   

Quoting Jean Leloup (Reply 8):
First flight, whenever it is, can't come soon enough. The consensus seems to be that a successful flight test program, and movement toward production, is what will really determine sales in the medium term. Until then there is just a lot of speculation, and a little frustration/impatience

Definitely. Now is a very bad time for orders, with first flight so near and early delivery slots easily available. Why should an airline commit now to an unproven aircraft, when it can wait another 6months or so to see it fly, take their decision based on flight test feedback rather than performance promises, and still get decent delivery slots?

That makes this potentially large LOI order encouraging, as there is no immediate need for an airline to commit to the aircraft at this time. The sooner first flight happens, the sooner we will hear from still hesitating customers.
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Thu Dec 20, 2012 2:34 pm

Quoting ytz (Reply 10):
Surprised we haven't seen more LOIs.

I'm not, its the wrong time in the development cycle to see. The 717 had years of zero orders due to the risk.

Quoting ytz (Reply 10):
Airlines could get these for cheap (maybe even free). They get to reserve a spot. Not commit capital. And back out if BBD can't deliver. So why not more LOIs?

LOIs might not require a big deposit, but what the airlines care about is delivery slots and those are not assigned until cash is transferred. But it costs to negotiate (very well paid people are doing quite a bit of travel).

Quoting r2rho (Reply 12):
The sooner first flight happens, the sooner we will hear from still hesitating customers.

Agreed. There is a risk to the C-series and as that risk is reduced, orders will flow in.

Quoting r2rho (Reply 12):
Quoting Dash9 (Thread starter):
why are there so many CS clients that wish to remain unidentified? Scope clause negotiation?

Strange indeed. I count 5 unidentified customers,

I speculate it is because these customers do not want Boeing and Airbus to know until they are certain the C-series delivers. There was speculation about Bombardier going after small customers when the program was launched. These customers are exactly the type that need the CS100 but also would not want to cross the big suppliers.

Lightsaber
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BlueSky1976
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RE: Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Thu Dec 20, 2012 3:09 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 13):
I speculate it is because these customers do not want Boeing and Airbus to know until they are certain the C-series delivers. There was speculation about Bombardier going after small customers when the program was launched. These customers are exactly the type that need the CS100 but also would not want to cross the big suppliers.

I expect 2014 to be a big year for CSeries. That's when the plane will start flying in revenue service and the real operational numbers will hit the air.

There will be one facepalm after another in both Chicago and Toulouse.
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lostsound
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RE: Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Thu Dec 20, 2012 3:49 pm

If the C-Series flying prototype makes it off the ground and to air shows next year, I suspect the order book will grow fairly quickly at those visits.

[Edited 2012-12-20 07:50:16]
 
davs5032
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RE: Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Thu Dec 20, 2012 5:17 pm

Now would be a great time for our "BBD insider" to share with us some more pictures/details if he's got them   ...don't remember his username, but IIRC he carries a Spanish flag. Last update he gave us was a couple of weeks ago, when the wings' arrival was anticipated. I'm curious to see how the plane is progressing.

Quoting lostsound (Reply 15):
If the C-Series flying prototype makes it off the ground and to air shows next year, I suspect the order book will grow fairly quickly at those visits.

Having a CS100 and an A359 both present & competing for air show attention would be incredible!
 
sebring
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RE: Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Thu Dec 20, 2012 6:31 pm

Another order, this one firm, for 10 CSeries aircraft

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe...r-10-c-series-jets/article6595902/

[Edited 2012-12-20 10:31:58]
 
Btblue
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RE: Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Thu Dec 20, 2012 6:39 pm

Could it be possible we will see a flurry of orders given the unavailability of the NEO and MAX as orders have built up with A and B? The next best thing being the CSeries?
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bonusonus
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RE: Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Thu Dec 20, 2012 6:42 pm

Quoting r2rho (Reply 12):
Strange indeed. I count 5 unidentified customers, of which 3 are even firm orders from back in 2011

Including the launch customer. Bombardier and its suppliers should be well into designing for this configuration (and I'm assuming they are), yet still no disclosure. When do you think we will see it? Paris?
 
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seabosdca
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RE: Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Thu Dec 20, 2012 6:43 pm

Quoting btblue (Reply 18):
Could it be possible we will see a flurry of orders given the unavailability of the NEO and MAX as orders have built up with A and B? The next best thing being the CSeries?

The order book strongly implies that the CSeries is already beating the neo and MAX where they compete. The 737 MAX 7 has zero orders and the A319neo has relatively few.
 
ytz
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RE: Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Thu Dec 20, 2012 7:03 pm

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 20):
The order book strongly implies that the CSeries is already beating the neo and MAX where they compete. The 737 MAX 7 has zero orders and the A319neo has relatively few.

CS500 will really put a dent into the MAX and NEO programs. I fully expect EZY to go all in, if (or rather when) BBD launches the CS500.

Till the CS500, I expect orders will be a steady drip rather than a torrent.
 
Btblue
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RE: Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Thu Dec 20, 2012 8:27 pm

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 20):
The order book strongly implies that the CSeries is already beating the neo and MAX where they compete. The 737 MAX 7 has zero orders and the A319neo has relatively few.

Thanks for clarifying that. Didn't know so have discovered something new.  
146/2/3 737/2/3/4/5/7/8/9 A320 1/2/18/19/21 DC9/40/50 DC10/30 A300/6 A330/2/3 A340/3/6 A380 757/2/3 747/4 767/3/4 787 77
 
flood
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RE: Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Thu Dec 20, 2012 9:27 pm

 
bonusonus
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RE: Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Thu Dec 20, 2012 9:40 pm

Actual press release here. Unless ATW has a source that we don't know about, they are simply misreading the press release. http://www.bombardier.com/en/corpora...ses/details?docID=0901260d8027f220
 
BD500
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RE: Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Thu Dec 20, 2012 10:34 pm

Quoting davs5032 (Reply 16):

Now would be a great time for our "BBD insider" to share with us some more pictures/details if he's got them   ...don't remember his username, but IIRC he carries a Spanish flag. Last update he gave us was a couple of weeks ago, when the wings' arrival was anticipated. I'm curious to see how the plane is progressing.

Before we get some information from an "insider" Bombardier released a video about the Air Baltic order and we can see in the background the A/C as well as the wing being installed

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNh-L8ZKAEM
 
BlueSky1976
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RE: Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Fri Dec 21, 2012 3:51 am

Quoting btblue (Reply 18):
Could it be possible we will see a flurry of orders given the unavailability of the NEO and MAX as orders have built up with A and B? The next best thing being the CSeries?
Quoting seabosdca (Reply 20):
The order book strongly implies that the CSeries is already beating the neo and MAX where they compete. The 737 MAX 7 has zero orders and the A319neo has relatively few.

Both 737-700 and A319 became slowest selling variant of their families for some time now. I think at this point, there is only one firm order for A319neo and zero for 737-7. I expect both of these models to share the fate of A318: relatively successfull business jet, poor seller as a passenger aircraft.

This is why I think both types will eventually be replaced by two families (130 - 150 seater on the lower end and 180 - 230seater at the top).

And yes, I think BBD may go for CS500, but not until the next decade. The current CS100 and CS300 need to prove themselves first in service.
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spiritair97
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RE: Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Fri Dec 21, 2012 4:13 am

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 26):

I really doubt that the a319 and 737-700 will share the fate of the a318.

Firstly, the 737-700 is a very popular aircraft. WN has 383, with 189 on order and 92 more options, making your statement that there are no outstanding orders for them incorrect. In fact, the -700 is the second most popular aircraft in the 737NG family. Overall, the 737-700 has had 1,084 delivered, with 297 still on order.

The a319, also being the second most popular in the family (behind the a320), has had 1,351 frames delivered, with 167 on order. US Airways alone has in the mid-90's, with more on order. EasyJet also haA 141 in their fleet. The a319's winning quality for many airlines is it's short runway performance over the rest of the family.

Overall, I don't mean to bash your comment, but it was MOSTLY incorrect. Yes, the a319 and 737-700 have not sold very quickly LATELY, but there is no way you can say they were poor-sellers as passenger aircraft.
 
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czbbflier
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RE: Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Fri Dec 21, 2012 4:26 am

Quoting Dash9 (Thread starter):
On a side note, why are there so many CS clients that wish to remain unidentified?

It's a ploy. It's called WORLD DOMINATION BY STEALTH. Watch out A and B. The Canadians are coming!

Moua ha ha ha!
 
danimarroquin
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RE: Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Fri Dec 21, 2012 4:34 am

I really smell like this is gonna be AV to replace the ex mexicana A319 and A318 , that where leased only for 5 years !
 
Jean Leloup
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RE: Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Fri Dec 21, 2012 4:39 am

Quoting spiritair97 (Reply 27):

Nope, it is you who are not only mostly, but completely wrong. Either you have not fully read the comment you are criticizing, or you are completely unaware of both the NEO and MAX programs. Time to take the plank out of your own eye before you start lecturing others - which I note you've been doing more of ever since you changed your age range from 13-15 to 36-45 a few months ago.

JL
Next flight.... who knows.
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Fri Dec 21, 2012 5:00 am

Exciting!

Quoting sebring (Reply 17):
Another order, this one firm, for 10 CSeries aircraft

Latvian, so not a 'customer in the Americas.' Well done Bombardier!

I'm amused Wikipedia was already updated.   

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 20):
The order book strongly implies that the CSeries is already beating the neo and MAX where they compete. The 737 MAX 7 has zero orders and the A319neo has relatively few.

I've posted in other threads how re-engining aircraft increases the optimal length (gauge). This was true with the DC-8, 777, 737-300, 737-800(NG), 747, and probably quite a few aircraft I've forgotten about.   

Quoting danimarroquin (Reply 29):

I really smell like this is gonna be AV to replace the ex mexicana A319 and A318 , that where leased only for 5 years !

That seems plausible. Thank you for the 'heads up.'

Lightsaber
"They did not know it was impossible, so they did it!" - Mark Twain
 
lostsound
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RE: Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Fri Dec 21, 2012 5:01 am

Air Canada recently said they were looking at CSeries. I highly doubt they've decided this quickly however.
 
BlueSky1976
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RE: Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Fri Dec 21, 2012 5:15 am

Quoting spiritair97 (Reply 27):
Yes, the a319 and 737-700 have not sold very quickly LATELY, but there is no way you can say they were poor-sellers as passenger aircraft.

Well, if you like to be so picky, please read my comment again as you have clearly misunderstood it. I bolded the key phrases for your convenience:

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 26):
Both 737-700 and A319 became slowest selling variant of their families for some time now. I think at this point, there is only one firm order for A319neo and zero for 737-7. I expect both of these models to share the fate of A318: relatively successfull business jet, poor seller as a passenger aircraft.

Reading with understanding is a very valuable skill, my friend.
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shaq
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RE: Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Fri Dec 21, 2012 5:55 am

Quoting ytz (Reply 21):

I don't know why you are saying that the 737-7 have no orders, if there are airlines that haven't decided which model they want. ( GOL)
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Faro
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RE: Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Fri Dec 21, 2012 10:09 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 9):
Even better when one of those little orders becomes a big one. It all depends on if the plane meets promise or not. If so... sales will build. I fully expect sales to build.
Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 14):
I expect 2014 to be a big year for CSeries. That's when the plane will start flying in revenue service and the real operational numbers will hit the air.

There will be one facepalm after another in both Chicago and Toulouse.
Quoting seabosdca (Reply 20):
The order book strongly implies that the CSeries is already beating the neo and MAX where they compete. The 737 MAX 7 has zero orders and the A319neo has relatively few.

  

The CS series is really 'The Next Big Thing' in short haul. Once flight testing is complete and in-service reliability is chalked up, we should expect wave upon wave of CS orders. Well done Bombardier/PW!!


Faro
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r2rho
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RE: Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Fri Dec 21, 2012 10:44 am

Quoting bonusonus (Reply 19):
5 unidentified customers, of which 3 are even firm orders from back in 2011

Including the launch customer.

It only adds to the mystery that the launch customer for the CS100 is not known yet...    BBD will not have yet started building that frame, but the cabin design for it should be finished by now.

Quoting bonusonus (Reply 19):
When do you think we will see it? Paris?

Le Bourget would be a great setting to reveal the launch customer. In any case the show will definitely be interesting to watch from a CSeries perspective. By then, if all goes well, first flight will have happened (probably just weeks or days earlier), and we might see some hesitant customers sign up...

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 26):

Both 737-700 and A319 became slowest selling variant of their families for some time now. I think at this point, there is only one firm order for A319neo and zero for 737-7. I expect both of these models to share the fate of A318: relatively successfull business jet, poor seller as a passenger aircraft.

I believe a lot of NEO/MAX orders are placed as generic "A320/737 family" orders which will later be detailed into 319/320/321/-7/-8/-9. Within that split, the A321/737-9 will surely gain more than the A319/737-7, which now become the "poor" members of the family as optimum a/c size shifts to the right. But they will not be as unsuccesful as A318/736, they will still have a place in the market, albeit much smaller than today.
 
BlueSky1976
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RE: Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Fri Dec 21, 2012 3:52 pm

Quoting r2rho (Reply 36):
I believe a lot of NEO/MAX orders are placed as generic "A320/737 family" orders which will later be detailed into 319/320/321/-7/-8/-9. Within that split, the A321/737-9 will surely gain more than the A319/737-7, which now become the "poor" members of the family as optimum a/c size shifts to the right. But they will not be as unsuccesful as A318/736, they will still have a place in the market, albeit much smaller than today

I am not so sure.

Back in the day, when Boeing was launching 737NG family, a large chunk of the orders went for the -700 model. Similarly, for A319, despite being launched as the late model in the family.

Today, we have a situation where everyone is going for the 150+ seat variants: even Southwest, the mother of 737NG, passed on 737-7 and went straight for -8. Going over the other guy, A319neo has so far one firm order from Frontier and MoU from American Airlines. Given that AA is buying only 11 A319s, and Boeing so far has not seen a single order for 737-7, I have to respectfully disagree with you.

The CS-300 is lurking in the dark for now... It is the black horse in the race for the best 130 seater. And it will win it.
POLAND IS UNDER DICTATORSHIP. PLEASE SUPPORT COMMITTEE FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACY, K.O.D.
 
ytz
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RE: Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Fri Dec 21, 2012 7:46 pm

Quoting czbbflier (Reply 28):
It's a ploy. It's called WORLD DOMINATION BY STEALTH. Watch out A and B. The Canadians are coming!

Moua ha ha ha!

Only if our Maple Syrup reserve doesn't get attacked!

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/20/bu...ft-from-quebec-warehouse.html?_r=0

Quoting SHAQ (Reply 34):
I don't know why you are saying that the 737-7 have no orders, if there are airlines that haven't decided which model they want. ( GOL)

Please see my comment. I never made that statement.

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 37):

The CS-300 is lurking in the dark for now... It is the black horse in the race for the best 130 seater. And it will win it.

I think it's more the eventual CS500. The problem with the others...the A319 and 73G are too small and the A320 and B738 are too big. You need an aircraft that's exactly at 150 seats in one class. There's only one airplane that will deliver that going forward. It's the CS500. That's why I keep beating the drum for it.

Look at Easyjet. A319 at 156 seats is too small. A320 at 180 seats is too big. The A319 has just enough seats to for the need for the 4th crewmember. The A320 has so many extra seats to fill and will incur higher landing fees, cost more to operate, etc. But what if you could get an airframe with 170 seats (at 29" pitch) that's cheaper to operate than their current A319s? Now, toss in the fact that this aircraft will be faster to turn around, have more luggage room per passenger, wider seats, larger windows and 80% of seats as aisle or window and you have a really solid candidate.
 
MesaFlyGuy
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RE: Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Fri Dec 21, 2012 9:52 pm

Quoting spiritair97 (Reply 27):

Based on what you wrote, it seems like you simply missed that they were talking of the a319neo and 737-7max. They have been slow sellers, and might just end up how BlueSky1976 said they would.

Out of curiosity....what is the difference between the 319 and the 319neo as well as the 737-700 and the 737-7max? If they are not that different, that might explain why the newer verions aren't selling as quickly, as it may not make as big a difference.

[Edited 2012-12-21 13:57:46]
The views I express are my own and do not reflect the views and opinions of my company.
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100

Fri Dec 21, 2012 11:32 pm

Quoting MesaFlyGuy (Reply 39):

Orders for the 737-700 and 319 have been slowing for some time, in relation to their larger brethren. As the price of fuel rises, the seat/mile economics of the larger models make more sense...much more plane for not so much more expense. That's why 73G operators like Southwest and Westjet, for example started converting some -700 orders to -800's.

Both smaller models are a shrink and as a result heavier than a plane dedicated for that mission, for example the CS300. New engines will make the legacy aircraft more efficient than the older models but will still be less efficient, (and probably more expensive to buy), than the CSeries.

It could also be that the 100-150 seat arena is dying as a market but I suspect the relatively slow sales of the CSeries has more to do with the short time before first flight than the size of the aircraft.

After the 787 fiasco, airlines are rightly gun shy about buying before seeing real production/performance information. If BBD misses their performance targets or has more delays to introduction, it could spell real trouble for the aircraft.
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