nomorerjs
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787 For ORD-KIX/NGO/others?

Thu Dec 27, 2012 1:30 am

Will the 787 make ORD-KIX/NGO/other high Y / lower F/J routes work?
 
Cubsrule
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RE: 787 For ORD-KIX/NGO/others?

Thu Dec 27, 2012 3:19 am

DTW-NGO works because there is a fairly large - but very automotive-focused - local market. Why would ORD-NGO work on any aircraft?
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LAXdude1023
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RE: 787 For ORD-KIX/NGO/others?

Thu Dec 27, 2012 3:40 am

ORD-KIX could come back with a 787. Good sized local market, the 777 was just too much plane.

ORD-NGO wont come back. ORD-NGO would live and die by auto contracts and thats all in Detroit. With DL flying DTW-NGO, there isnt much need for ORD-NGO.
It is what it is...
 
thekennady
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RE: 787 For ORD-KIX/NGO/others?

Thu Dec 27, 2012 11:38 am

Rumor/word was that NH applied to add a second daily NRT flight from ORD this summer. Maybe they can pick up the KIX market instead with a 787. Would be the perfect plane for it. With ORD Europe being mostly covered, i believe Asia could be the main target market for new routes with the 787 out of ORD. Any other potential ORD 787 routes come to mind? Could some some south america routes work such as EZE? this time with the right plane?
 
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STT757
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RE: 787 For ORD-KIX/NGO/others?

Thu Dec 27, 2012 11:41 am

I can see UA re-launching SFO-NGO and possibly LAX-KIX with the 787.
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thekennady
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RE: 787 For ORD-KIX/NGO/others?

Thu Dec 27, 2012 12:20 pm

TLV, TPE, CAI may also be able to support a 787 flight to ORD
 
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IrishAyes
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RE: 787 For ORD-KIX/NGO/others?

Fri Dec 28, 2012 8:30 pm

This is a tough question. On one hand, I constantly hear how demand from the US to Japan is trending downward, yet NH just announced a second daily ORDNRT flight, (although obviously that will cater to more than just US-Japan demand). However, I'd argue that an ORD-KIX/NGO flight is probably more "at risk" from any shifting demand trends just by the nature of how connections and business ties play into the game.

If I were to say go vs. no-go, I'd say no-go. On the Japan side, NH and JL are obviously utilizing their 787s to open up new "thin" routes to US markets such as SEA, BOS, SAN and SJC. On the American side, the approach is similar, but China seems to be the larger focus right now.

Who knows.

Quoting thekennady (Reply 5):

TLV, TPE, CAI may also be able to support a 787 flight to ORD

Hmm.. CAI is constantly in political flux. Also, not many business ties to Chicago. Don't see it coming.

TLV also has political constraints (Cat II, etc). that don't seem to have this one largely on the radar for now.

TPE is more likely, especially with BR joining Star. I would personally be thrilled to see a nonstop ORD-TPE flight.
confidence is silent. insecurities are loud.
 
thekennady
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RE: 787 For ORD-KIX/NGO/others?

Sat Dec 29, 2012 3:42 am

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 6):
TLV also has political constraints (Cat II, etc). that don't seem to have this one largely on the radar for now.


TLV is back to CAT 1, LY is not getting 787s for few years, UA is already on EWR-TLV so yes its more than likely not high on the list for anyone to start ORD-TLV. Would be nice though.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 6):
Hmm.. CAI is constantly in political flux. Also, not many business ties to Chicago. Don't see it coming.



MS reannounced CAI-YYZ for S13. Wish it was ORD. Another Star to Star route could expand the market for a niche carrier like MS.
 
UA787DEN
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RE: 787 For ORD-KIX/NGO/others?

Sat Dec 29, 2012 4:58 am

CAI isn't the big name 787 destination most US people want. Political mess. Asia is where most will go. Longer flights let them enjoy the benifits of 787 economics more, and the market is growing fast. KIX will probably return to LAX or ORD. Not NGO. TPE could work. China-LAX/SFO/ORD and EWR/IAH-Middle east might happen.
 
AADC10
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RE: 787 For ORD-KIX/NGO/others?

Sat Dec 29, 2012 10:42 am

Quoting STT757 (Reply 4):
I can see UA re-launching SFO-NGO and possibly LAX-KIX with the 787.

I doubt both of them. SFO-NGO was launched in part because of the Toyota/GM NUMMI plant in Fremont but the plant closed in 2010. Executive and cargo traffic have declined on the route as a result. LAX-KIX seems unlikely since UA had to reduce LAX-NRT to a 787. If LAX-NRT can only support a 787 then how is KIX going to do it? The existing SFO-KIX might go to a 787 at least seasonally.

Going back to the original topic, there is little O&D demand for KIX or NGO out of ORD. SFO can effectively collect demand for KIX from the entire UA network, while ORD leaves out the west coast, where a large portion of the demand for KIX originates. If SFO-NGO can't make it, ORD-NGO has no chance.

I do not think that the 787 will add routes to marginal destinations or open new destinations in the short term. I think it and the converted ghetto birds will mostly fill some hub to existing major destination routes such as the announced DEN-NRT on the 787 and SFO-CDG on the reconfigured 2-class 763. SEA-NRT might be in range of some 767 configurations although cargo considerations may keep it a 772 or downgauge to a 787 when available. Also, part of the announced plan is to seasonally alternate 772s with 787s and 767s between destinations in the northern and southern hemispheres.
 
UA787DEN
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RE: 787 For ORD-KIX/NGO/others?

Sat Dec 29, 2012 5:57 pm

True...maybe one or the other.
 
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LAXintl
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RE: 787 For ORD-KIX/NGO/others?

Sat Dec 29, 2012 10:03 pm

For fun some daily O&D demands to KIX and NGO from around the US.

Osaka
ATL - 14
BOS - 27
DFW - 7
DTW - 9
IAD - 25
IAH - 8
LAX - 178
NYC - 149
ORD - 39
SEA - 101
SFO - 185

Nagoya
ATL - 6
BOS - 10
DFW - 3
DTW - 64
IAD - 10
IAH - 6
LAX - 158
NYC - 51
ORD - 14
SEA - 54
SFO - 131


As can be seen the local market demand from Chicago to either one of these markets is rather tiny.

Really only potential point to point markets for Osaka is to the West Coast or NYC, while Nagoya only shot is really to either LA or SF.
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