sweair
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The Future NB Market

Thu Dec 27, 2012 5:07 pm

It looks like the NEO and MAX families are almost leaving the A319 and MAX7 behind for the future? Is this only because of new entrants into the 100-140 seat market? Or did the sweet spot go higher last 10 years?

Will the duopoly settle with just 2 models? Comac, Bombardier and Irkut are aiming for some of the duopoly market or all of it.

How will A+B handle this? They can hardly beat the new competition going smaller, will they go larger to win new market or would that eat into their WB markets?

How long will they dominate the 150-200 seat market?
 
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Stitch
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RE: The Future NB Market

Thu Dec 27, 2012 5:13 pm

Quoting sweair (Thread starter):
It looks like the NEO and MAX families are almost leaving the A319 and MAX7 behind for the future? Is this only because of new entrants into the 100-140 seat market? Or did the sweet spot go higher last 10 years?

Trip costs between the smaller and larger frames are so close for many operators that by operating the larger model, they can generate additional revenue per flight if traffic warrants it, but effectively don't lose money if the seats are not sold.
 
UA787DEN
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RE: The Future NB Market

Thu Dec 27, 2012 5:23 pm

A and B intentionally are sizing these new aircraft for the larger market. Boeing didn't even go for a MAX6. The MAX7 isn't doing well because Airlines simply aren't ordering them. They are either buying A and B planes for short haul with larger capacity, or going for the more economic planes sized for those markets. A and B planes have gotten bigger. RJs are bigger. The original 737s sat what, 90 people? The airlines make more revenue on a 150 seater with a slightly lower load factor.

Quoting sweair (Thread starter):
How long will they dominate the 150-200 seat market?


But because of the family style aircraft, Boeing could produce only MAX9s for years, then make a MAX7. So they will always dominate the 150-200 seat market. The NEO and MAX have over 2000 orders. The Y1 will cover it, and probably in 3 models: 150, 185, and 220 seats. A true 757 replacement. At some point, Airbus will do the same. Also, no US airline will order the Comac or Irkut in the foreseeable future. So it will be A, B, and B.

[Edited 2012-12-27 09:24:26]
 
xjramper
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RE: The Future NB Market

Thu Dec 27, 2012 5:27 pm

I'm not sure what you are trying to say/question, but Airbus and Boeing have their niche markets and so does Mitsubishi, Comac, Irkut, and Bombardier.

The problem with Comac and Irkut argument is that they will be geographic dependent. There are a lot of states that do not do business with China or Russia, thus will rely on Bombardier, Embraer, Airbus and Boeing to produce and deliver products. You have other airlines, at least parent companies, who rely solely on either A or B to produce and deliver their products.

With airlines trying to reduce flying and cut flying costs, especially fuel, they won't be looking for necessarily a smaller jet, but something that is fuel efficient, has long range capabilities, and medium sized seating capacity. Boeing has cut their 757 line, with the 739 as a close replacement (and the A321 as the substitute for the 739).
Look ma' no hands!
 
sweair
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RE: The Future NB Market

Thu Dec 27, 2012 6:41 pm

The CS100 and 300 will enter the territory where 737-700 and A319 ruled. And the market seems like they have voted already counting orders for these models.

Many say the CS500 (150 seats) is just a question when it will be launched. The Irkut MS-21 is sort of spot on the 737-800/737-900 size and capacity. There is no info on the Comac C919. Also the Irkut will be very modern with western avionics and engines.

I was just thinking 10 years from now, the NEO and MAX will be in service and probably all 3 new NB frames as well. How will this change the NB market? A+B have given up on the smallest NBs and now seem to lose the next smallest NBs.

The bread and butter will be the A320/738/A321/739. That is however just 2 models, will this be enough to stay ahead or above? Will Boeing do the NSA before Airbus goes for the A3XX?
 
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Stitch
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RE: The Future NB Market

Thu Dec 27, 2012 8:57 pm

The main advantages of the A319-100neo and 737-7 are for long, thin routes (as they have the legs) or for field performance (same thrust as the A320-200neo / 737-8 with lower TOW).

However, the greater fuel efficiency of the LEAP-X and GTF allow the A320neo and 737-8 to fly farther than the A319 and 737-700 could, so the extra range the A319neo and 737-7 may be superfluous.
 
Burkhard
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RE: The Future NB Market

Thu Dec 27, 2012 9:10 pm

The sweet spot went from DC9-10 over B732 and B733 to B738 now and will reach the 739/A321 size end of this decade. 150 seaters will sell as good in 2020 as 100 seater do today.
 
planemaker
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RE: The Future NB Market

Fri Dec 28, 2012 4:03 am

Quoting sweair (Thread starter):

Most of the large NEO and MAX orders are not model specific or can be altered at a later date.

There are already enough 73G and A319s in service (with a few hundred still on order) that there is no current need to specify replacements.

Consolidation, retirements, growth, etc, etc, (and the other reason others have posted) have resulted in NB aircraft up-gauging.

A and B will dominate the NB market for the foreseeable future... the others are market pinpricks.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
sweair
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RE: The Future NB Market

Fri Dec 28, 2012 8:14 am

I think the NEO and MAX models below 150 seats will have a hard time to compete with the CS100/300 and that shows in the order backlog.
I wonder how a CS500(150 seats) will do against a 150 seat A320, on shorter routes it should beat it?
 
planemaker
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RE: The Future NB Market

Fri Dec 28, 2012 9:37 am

Quoting sweair (Reply 8):
I think the NEO and MAX models below 150 seats will have a hard time to compete with the CS100/300 and that shows in the order backlog.

NEO and MAX (or even OEO & NG) do not compete with the CS100. So, strip away the CS100 backlog and the CS300 order backlog doesn't show that the NEO and MAX will have a hard time to compete.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
AirbusA6
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RE: The Future NB Market

Fri Dec 28, 2012 2:12 pm

Quoting xjramper (Reply 3):
The problem with Comac and Irkut argument is that they will be geographic dependent. There are a lot of states that do not do business with China or Russia, thus will rely on Bombardier, Embraer, Airbus and Boeing to produce and deliver products. You have other airlines, at least parent companies, who rely solely on either A or B to produce and deliver their products.

I doubt China or Russia will be after US sales anyway. The US and Western Europe aren't the only markets for planes,
Airbus and Boeing will notice the competition when their lucrative sales to China, Russia and other countries in the region start to dry up over time. It won't be tomorrow, but in 20 years time China could have built up a major competitor to the West, especially if A and B sit on their laurels.
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planemaker
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RE: The Future NB Market

Fri Dec 28, 2012 6:36 pm

Quoting AirbusA6 (Reply 10):
It won't be tomorrow, but in 20 years time China could have built up a major competitor to the West, especially if A and B sit on their laurels.

Eventually China will be a competitor but not a "major competitor". Other than price (and pressure), there is no compelling reason for even Chinese carriers to purchase the C919 vs NEO or MAX family. It will take a least until after the next all-new NB design for China to be in a position to start to garner some significant domestic NB market share.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
sweair
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RE: The Future NB Market

Sat Dec 29, 2012 10:14 am

I think it is wise to be reactive to this new environment. Boeing was not very concerned when Airbus started, look where they are now..
 
planemaker
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RE: The Future NB Market

Sat Dec 29, 2012 7:02 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 12):
I think it is wise to be reactive to this new environment. Boeing was not very concerned when Airbus started, look where they are now..

There is only a very superficial parallel. The dynamics are entirely different.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein

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