UA735WL
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UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Mon Dec 31, 2012 5:11 am

Searching through United.com recently, I've noticed that in January the 319 and 738 are showing as equipment on some of UA's flights SFO/LAX-AUS-SFO/LAX (in addition to several other preexisting CR7 freqencies). What could be the reason behind this? Could it be an attempt to scare B6 off the route? Or possibly a pre-emptive attack on any attempt by VX? In any case, it seems that these markets are already saturated....any thoughts?


Regards,

PCJ
"One test is worth a thousand expert opinions" -Tex Johnston
 
MesaFlyGuy
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Mon Dec 31, 2012 5:15 am

Possibly in response to B6 adding a second daily AUS-LGB?
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ordbosewr
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Mon Dec 31, 2012 8:35 pm

I believe this is a function of the merger. There are many former CO ff in AUS.
I know many people in AUS and some of which are former AA fliers who have switched to UA after the merger.

The ability for these folks to fly non-stop to these other cities then connect rather than the connection to IAH that most did. I mean AUS to IAH is like hourly and all 737's. The ability to flow some of those connections to other hubs is better for the new UA.
 
n782nc
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Mon Dec 31, 2012 11:57 pm

Out of curiosity, what days did you plug in? I just did a quick search on random dates throughout the month and found nothing but CR7s.
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UA735WL
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Tue Jan 01, 2013 3:10 am

Quoting N782NC (Reply 3):

Try the first week of January. The 3rd definitely has 738s to SFO and LAX (Maybe they sold out. ) Also, this looks like it could be a permanant upgauge, as mainline types are also showing as late as July. (Haven't checked any later than that.)
"One test is worth a thousand expert opinions" -Tex Johnston
 
as739x
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Tue Jan 01, 2013 3:42 am

Quoting UA735WL (Reply 4):

Not in our system for SFO (4 CR7). But LAX is showing on the Jan 3rd a 738 and CR7

These route both started with mainline and then went to UAX. It wouldn't surprise me in the least that mainline come back on a regular basis.
"Some pilots avoid storm cells and some play connect the dots!"
 
aaexecplat
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Tue Jan 01, 2013 7:30 am

As a former CO Plat and current UA Plat located in AUS, let me tell you that much of the capacity has gone to RJ since the merger. CO used to fly frequently between AUS and IAH on all mainline equipment. Since the merger, many daily frequencies have gone to RJ. SFO and LAX have also been mostly RJ. My response has been to fly less on UA. Switching planes in IAH from Terminal B to Terminal E or C is the pits and I refuse to do it.
 
Super80DFW
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Tue Jan 01, 2013 4:36 pm

Quoting UA735WL (Thread starter):
Quoting mesaflyguy (Reply 1):
Possibly in response to B6 adding a second daily AUS-LGB?
Quoting ORDBOSEWR (Reply 2):

Or perhaps the market just demands the additional capacity??! For some reason, everyone these days seems to think an up-gauge in equipment has to be a result of something or in retaliation to a competitor! Why not just let the market dictate what capacity is needed??
"Things change, friends leave, life doesn't stop for anybody." -- EAT'EM UP EAT'EM UP KSU!!
 
UA735WL
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Tue Jan 01, 2013 8:52 pm

Quoting Super80DFW (Reply 7):

You are absolutely correct-market does determine aircraft type. However, I think that in this particular instance, it IS a move against potential competiton- in this case VX or B6. IMO, UA thinks that there is enough demand to fill another mainline aircraft to SFO and LAX. Their solution to this is simply to immediately upgauge one of their flights and capture the yields for themselves rather than wait for B6 or VX to swoop in and steal a potential oppertunity for profit. Sad, really.....I would love to see VX here in AUS.
"One test is worth a thousand expert opinions" -Tex Johnston
 
Longhornmaniac
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Tue Jan 01, 2013 11:15 pm

Quoting ORDBOSEWR (Reply 2):
I know many people in AUS and some of which are former AA fliers who have switched to UA after the merger.

Really? I know a lot that did exactly the opposite. The new UA has absolutely decimated the mainline offering in Austin, much to the dismay of the FF elites.

AA provides, by far, the most number of F seats out of Austin, and the most mainline aircraft. I just looked at UA's schedule for next Monday (a heavy business travel day), and they only have 3(!) mainline departures out of Austin. Three. Two 737s to IAH, and 1 A319 to DEN.

Absolutely embarrassing.

Cheers,
Cameron
Cheers,
Cameron
 
aaexecplat
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Tue Jan 01, 2013 11:28 pm

Quoting Longhornmaniac (Reply 9):

Cameron has it exactly right. Many former CO elites have switched to flying AA. And those of us who primarily already flew AA have also reduced our flying on UA. The volume difference in the Admital's Club vs the UC or the old Pres Club is very telling...

Only question to Cameron...did you account for the EWR flights?
 
MesaFlyGuy
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Tue Jan 01, 2013 11:37 pm

Quoting Longhornmaniac (Reply 9):
they only have 3(!) mainline departures out of Austin. Three. Two 737s to IAH, and 1 A319 to DEN

What do they have on the EWR route? I see two daily 737s (one 737 and one 738) on EWR-AUS, and depending on the day, some Airbus metal on the route.
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aaexecplat
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Wed Jan 02, 2013 12:11 am

Quoting mesaflyguy (Reply 11):

That's what I think...he must have missed them. Bu even if you add those in, it's nothing like AA's mainline schedule...
 
tommy767
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Wed Jan 02, 2013 1:08 am

Newark to austin is usually 737 or 320, dulles gets rjs & 320s, and houston gets all different kinds even 757.

Ill diss the New united when they deserve it but they have a very nice presence in austin though.
"KEEP CLIMBING" -- DELTA
 
Longhornmaniac
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Wed Jan 02, 2013 1:23 am

Quoting aaexecplat (Reply 12):
he must have missed them

   Indeed I did. So many hubs I can't keep them all straight!   So yes, add on 2 to 3 daily 737s to EWR, and we have a total of 5-6. AA has more than that before 7:30 AM.

Keep in mind the combined CO and UA (pre-merger) used to run (give or take):

15x IAH (at one point, it was all mainline)
5x DEN (mix of mainline and RJs)
3x EWR (of course, all mainline)
3x SFO (1x mainline)
2x IAD (1x mainline)

In addition to the RJs from ORD. LAX is a relatively recent addition (last 3-5 years or so, as I recall), and has been all RJ, as well.

So not only have we seen a considerable reduction in F seats, but a considerable reduction in seats period.

IAH has been drawn down by over 50%, EWR by a third, and SFO has been reduced, despite increasing the frequency.

I have to wonder what UA's strategy is in Austin now. Of course, they have the numbers available to them and we don't, but I am very surprised to see UA appearing to concede Austin to the likes of AA and WN. They've always been the third carrier in Austin (even combined), but there doesn't appear to be any effort to be a dominant player. Of course, Austin is probably one of the few non-hub cities in their system that has service to all of their domestic hubs, but the size and frequency has dropped off considerably.

Cheers,
Cameron
Cheers,
Cameron
 
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drerx7
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Wed Jan 02, 2013 2:04 am

Quoting Longhornmaniac (Reply 14):
IAH has been drawn down by over 50%, EWR by a third, and SFO has been reduced, despite increasing the frequency.

Something I could see - because prior to the UA/CO link up a good number of those CO pax transferred at IAH heading west. Now they can fly direct to the west coast.
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aaexecplat
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Wed Jan 02, 2013 2:22 am

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 13):

Do you live in AUS? For the largest airline in the world, UA has a ridiculously small presence in AUS, one of the fastest growing metro areas in the country (70k new households per year). Not to mention that Austin is a high yielding market with tons of business and political consulting/lobbying travelers. Take a look at average airfares in AUS....and the mysterious 757 you speak of only happens during ACL, SXSW or Formula 1....

Quoting Longhornmaniac (Reply 14):

Boggles my mind that UA has effectively given up on Austin with a tint presence and tons of RJ flying...

Quoting drerx7 (Reply 15):

But they aren't....many of us preferred transiting in IAH over flying RJ...so many have gone to AA where we transit in DFW...I don't have the numbers, but if I were a betting man, I would guess that yields in AUS have been falling in AUS while AA and Southwest yields have been rising since last year.
 
Freshside3
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Wed Jan 02, 2013 3:08 am

Alaska has the only AUS nonstop from SEA, which is full all the time. The market can certainly support a second one, and UA would be a perfect fit.
 
FlyDeltaJets
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Wed Jan 02, 2013 3:24 am

Quoting UA735WL (Reply 8):
You are absolutely correct-market does determine aircraft type.

The 737 doing AUS-LAX is overbooked. Im sure it was an upgage for the holiday, nothing more to look into it than that.
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UA735WL
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Wed Jan 02, 2013 3:54 am

Quoting as739x (Reply 5):
Not in our system for SFO (4 CR7).

Searched some random dates and United.com is showing UA891 (319) and UA1087 (739ER) operating AUS-SFO on 3/9/13 and 3/6/13 respectively. I'm not sure how to check the schedual for the entire year, but from what I've been finding, it exists. (Correct me if I'm mistaken)

Quoting FlyDeltaJets (Reply 18):
The 737 doing AUS-LAX is overbooked. Im sure it was an upgage for the holiday, nothing more to look into it than that.

Probably right. I have not found another mainline AUS-LAX. That doesn't mean it isn't there, though....

[Edited 2013-01-01 20:02:42]

[Edited 2013-01-01 20:16:16]
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Longhornmaniac
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Wed Jan 02, 2013 4:20 am

Quoting FreshSide3 (Reply 17):

AUS-SEA is a fascinating market. On paper, there should be more than enough traffic between two of the leading high-tech areas in the country.

AA was the first carrier to enter the market with a single daily nonstop in 2007. The route didn't last much more than a year, if that. I'm positive this was influenced by both the global financial crisis/ensuing recession, as well as AA's internal financial problems/Cornerstone Strategy.

AS benefits from being able to feed their flight with all of their other Pacific Northwest destinations, but they are in a pretty unique position to do that.

UA would have some limited feed from their trans-Pacific route(s?) if timed correctly, but even still the route would be primarily driven by P2P traffic.

AA was in a similar position when it tried the route (sans the onward Asia connections), and clearly didn't have as much success as they would've liked. How much that failure was a result of AA's internal issues/geopolitics, and how much of it was the route being unable to sustain the necessary margins to continue the route.

According to DOT data, there are approximately 250 PDEW between AUS-SEA (as of Q2 2012). AS is capturing approximately 46% of that, which equates to about 115 passengers.

Based on some very rough math I did with October 2012 data, AS had 5152 seats for sale each way (according to Flightaware, 12x 738 and 19x 739 for the month of October), and enplaned 9360, which equates to 4680 each way, for a load factor of 90.8%.

Using DOT's Q2 numbers, that would seem to indicate that about 76% of AS' traffic is P2P (115/151 [which is derived from 90.8% LF * 166 average seats per day]), which would mean about 24% (or 36 passengers) is connecting.

I'm going to keep going, but if I'm making incorrect assumptions or missing something, please correct me.

As it stands, there are only about another 125 people being carried on this route among all of the other carriers. WN (which is the only other carrier I can easily find market share info on), gobbles up another 32 PDEW.

While a nonstop could certainly take some of the traffic from other airlines, even if you were to split all the remaining passengers evenly between AA, DL, US, UA, and B6 (all of which provide easy, logical connections to SEA), you're still only looking at ~20 PDEW for each carrier. UA would have to either create a lot of demand based on having the nonstop and successfully poach most of the remaining traffic (unlikely), or generate a lot of connecting opportunities, which they simply don't have. The AUS-Asia market can't number more than ~20 PDEW. Even if they were to capture ALL of that (which they obviously wouldn't come anywhere close), you're still looking at a deficiency of almost a third to fill up a CR7, or 3/4 to fill up a 737/A320. I have a very hard time believing a 2/3 full CR7 on a 1,770 mile stage length could be profitable, and I'm equally skeptical a 1/3 full A319 wouldn't (even with cargo revenue, which I'm sure could be sizable on this route) would be.

TL;DR: I don't think the AUS-SEA market could support a second daily nonstop, much less a second carrier, on the route.

Cheers,
Cameron
Cheers,
Cameron
 
huxrules
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Wed Jan 02, 2013 4:56 am

I now fly DL out of AUS because of weather problems between AUS and IAH. If there is bad weather in AUS you will be delayed- then the weather moves to houston and you get delays at IAH. I missed two flights (and spent hours in the airport) because of this. Since you have to connect somewhere I just go through Atlanta.
 
Longhornmaniac
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Wed Jan 02, 2013 5:30 am

Quoting huxrules (Reply 21):

Wait, wait...wait. You fly through ATL to avoid delays?!  

Cheers,
Cameron
Cheers,
Cameron
 
aaexecplat
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Wed Jan 02, 2013 8:39 am

Quoting UA735WL (Reply 19):
Searched some random dates and United.com is showing UA891 (319) and UA1087 (739ER) operating AUS-SFO on 3/9/13 and 3/6/13 respectively. I'm not sure how to check the schedual for the entire year, but from what I've been finding, it exists. (Correct me if I'm mistaken)

Those are short term capacity increases because of SXSW and spring break...AISD gets out on 3/8/13 and is back on 3/19/13. SXSW is being held from 3/7/13 through 3/17/13.

Outside of these special circumstances, UA flies all RJ to SFO and LAX...
 
FlyDeltaJets
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Wed Jan 02, 2013 10:02 am

Quoting aaexecplat (Reply 23):
Those are short term capacity increases because of SXSW and spring break...AISD gets out on 3/8/13 and is back on 3/19/13. SXSW is being held from 3/7/13 through 3/17/13.

I was just about to post that because those mainline have already sold enough seats to overbook an RJ.
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usdcaguy
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Wed Jan 02, 2013 11:14 am

Quoting Longhornmaniac (Reply 22):
Wait, wait...wait. You fly through ATL to avoid delays?!  

In all seriousness...it looks like ATL is getting its delays down and making it more attractive to connect there!

http://www.wsbtv.com/news/news/local...ts-record-low-flight-delays/nTbkQ/
 
tommy767
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Wed Jan 02, 2013 5:35 pm

Quoting aaexecplat (Reply 16):
Do you live in AUS? For the largest airline in the world, UA has a ridiculously small presence in AUS, one of the fastest growing metro areas in the country

What do you expect exactly? DL is an extemely large airline as well and they don't dominate AUS either.

I don't live in AUS but I do know that UA remains competitive at Bergstrom whereas AA has indefinitely shrunk over the last 5 years. Remember when AA flew mainline on AUS-SNA/SEA/SJC/RDU?? That wasn't exactly a long time ago..

To look at the bigger picture, it should be noted that UA has a strong spoke at AUS (and likewise SAT) but aside their mega hub down in IAH, their second biggest city in TX is DFW with over 40 daily flights -- which happens to be one of the largest spokes in the UA system.
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coairman
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Wed Jan 02, 2013 5:39 pm

As mentioned above, United like other airlines upgadge aircraft and add routes for the holiday season only. One example is CLE-SAN that only appears for the holiday season every year. It's the only time you will see this route.
The views I express are of my own, and not the company I work for.
 
gigneil
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Thu Jan 03, 2013 3:25 am

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 26):
To look at the bigger picture, it should be noted that UA has a strong spoke at AUS

Define a strong spoke. They've drawn their presence down by over half.

NS
 
FlyingSicilian
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Thu Jan 03, 2013 5:42 am

Does United (formerly CO)still have a club in AUS? It is not showing up on their webpage anymore under US clubs.
“Without seeing Sicily it is impossible to understand Italy.Sicily is the key of everything.”-Goethe "Journey to Italy"
 
LoneStarMike
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Thu Jan 03, 2013 6:12 am

Quoting FlyingSicilian (Reply 29):
Does United (formerly CO)still have a club in AUS? It is not showing up on their webpage anymore under US clubs.

It must be a mistake on their website. While it doesn't show up on the link for US Clubs, it does appear if you click on the link to show all clubs.

LoneStarMike
 
FlyingSicilian
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Thu Jan 03, 2013 6:29 am

Quoting LoneStarMike (Reply 30):
It must be a mistake on their website. While it doesn't show up on the link for US Clubs, it does appear if you click on the link to show all clubs.

LoneStarMike

So it does. You are right it seems to be a glitch. I still can't get it to show up when I click US only, and it isn't on the drop down menu but magically appears when clicking all. Thanks for catching that!

I'd presume AUS still has enough of a UA FF base to make it worth having the club there (ditto SAT).
“Without seeing Sicily it is impossible to understand Italy.Sicily is the key of everything.”-Goethe "Journey to Italy"
 
aaexecplat
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Thu Jan 03, 2013 8:12 am

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 26):
What do you expect exactly? DL is an extemely large airline as well and they don't dominate AUS either.

I don't live in AUS but I do know that UA remains competitive at Bergstrom whereas AA has indefinitely shrunk over the last 5 years. Remember when AA flew mainline on AUS-SNA/SEA/SJC/RDU?? That wasn't exactly a long time ago..

To look at the bigger picture, it should be noted that UA has a strong spoke at AUS (and likewise SAT) but aside their mega hub down in IAH, their second biggest city in TX is DFW with over 40 daily flights -- which happens to be one of the largest spokes in the UA system.

You are in dreamland and you lack some knowledge around what's going on around AUS. AA has shrunk but it is still much bigger than UA, and UA flying almost all RJ now except to EWR does make them fa less competitive. But keep on believin'.

Quoting FlyingSicilian (Reply 29):
Does United (formerly CO)still have a club in AUS? It is not showing up on their webpage anymore under US clubs.

Yes. The United Club (formerly President's Club) is on the Mezzanine level across from gate 13. I visit it every Tuesday morning.
 
seahawks7757
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Thu Jan 03, 2013 9:04 am

Wow fail on my part, curious if I was the only one to read this as UA adding Mainline Capacity to AUS(Standing for Australia)-SFO/LAX and was going to ask what else would they send to Australia? Surely the CRJ200 doesn't have the legs to do it.
 
hmelawyer
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Thu Jan 03, 2013 3:29 pm

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 26):
What do you expect exactly? DL is an extemely large airline as well and they don't dominate AUS either.

I don't live in AUS but I do know that UA remains competitive at Bergstrom whereas AA has indefinitely shrunk over the last 5 years. Remember when AA flew mainline on AUS-SNA/SEA/SJC/RDU?? That wasn't exactly a long time ago..

You are correct that Delta does not dominate, but they have grown traffic about 10% in each of the past couple of years and have moved from a very minor player to almost on parity with the combined Continental/United. As recently as two years ago the Continental operation alone was bigger than Delta.

I was a Platinum Elite on Continental for years and they were all mainline between IAH and AUS about 9-10 times a day. In fact that 9:00 p.m. flight from IAH to AUS consistently was scheduled with a 757-300 and was often full. Following Smisek's taking the reins flights began to seeing continual downgauges despite good LF. They have just been abandoning the market to AA and WN. I refuse to fly AA for many reasons not germane to this post, so for me the UA drawdown has been quite disappointing.
 
AusTexFlyer
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Thu Jan 03, 2013 5:30 pm

Quoting aaexecplat (Reply 6):
As a former CO Plat and current UA Plat located in AUS, let me tell you that much of the capacity has gone to RJ since the merger. CO used to fly frequently between AUS and IAH on all mainline equipment. Since the merger, many daily frequencies have gone to RJ. SFO and LAX have also been mostly RJ. My response has been to fly less on UA. Switching planes in IAH from Terminal B to Terminal E or C is the pits and I refuse to do it.

Yep. I'm currently UA gold, and fluctuate between gold/plat. I don't mind changing at Term C or E in IAH, but B to C or E is terrible. I'm still flying UA because I'd personally rather go through B at IAH then have to deal with DFW, but I understand what you're saying.

I miss those 753/762 morning flights to IAH. A lot.

Quoting aaexecplat (Reply 32):
Yes. The United Club (formerly President's Club) is on the Mezzanine level across from gate 13. I visit it every Tuesday morning.

Funny. I'm sure I've seen you there.
 
tommy767
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Thu Jan 03, 2013 5:57 pm

Quoting Hmelawyer (Reply 34):
Following Smisek's taking the reins flights began to seeing continual downgauges despite good LF.

Sounds like the typical CO way to me -- packed RJ's, right size everything.
"KEEP CLIMBING" -- DELTA
 
SurfandSnow
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Fri Jan 04, 2013 5:37 am

It's been interesting to see this AUS operation evolve over the years. Prior to 9/11, PMUA had an all-mainline station with service to ORD, DEN, SFO, and IAD. The shock of 9/11 saw the temporary loss of nonstops to SFO and IAD, which would later resume with the help of RJ equipment. The airline then farmed out virtually everything to its RJ partners - IIRC a few years ago the station was mainline by virtue of a single daily mainline service oscillating between SFO, DEN, and IAD. We saw LAX-AUS commence with what else, the CR7, only to get cut amidst the onset of the Great Recession. This would later resume in the first round of expansion after the merger, as PMCO's FFer base in AUS finally made the link to PMUA's relatively small LAX hub viable. PMCO was more consistent at AUS, with lots of mainline services to its IAH and EWR hubs along with several fruitless attempts of nonstop CLE-AUS thrown in for good measure. So, post-merger, AUS has enjoyed nonstop service to all seven major [domestic mainland] hubs, and the airline even added a seasonal AUS-CUN nonstop that is now operating in its second season! It seems that mainline is making a comeback on the longer routes from AUS, while the short hop between IAH and AUS (with virtually no O&D) has been primarily reduced to RJ service. This move makes sense, as mainline will allow UA to be much more competitive against all-mainline AA, WN, and B6 services to Greater Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area, while also deterring VX from adding SFO/LAX-AUS anytime soon. I think in the future, as UA follows the DL strategy of drastically reducing 50 seat RJ ops in favor of 70 seaters, meaning that many existing 70 seater routes gain (in most cases, regain) mainline service, we will see AUS with strong mainline links to LAX, SFO, DEN, ORD, EWR, and IAD, with a few mainline hops to IAH for major connecting banks (i.e. Latin America, transatlantic, transpacific) with RJs the rest of the time. Maybe we can see CLE-AUS make a comeback, should UA elect to keep the CLE hub - it appears they will - and even AUS-CUN appears to be holding its own, in spite of the WN-driven FL service that is much more frequent.
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Freshside3
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Fri Jan 04, 2013 7:59 am

Quoting Longhornmaniac (Reply 20):
AUS-SEA is a fascinating market. On paper, there should be more than enough traffic between two of the leading high-tech areas in the country.

There are a lot of stats that get lost in the cracks, here. Not only do you have the tech businesses, but you also have the music industry.....yes, NYC/LAX/BNA are the major players, but SEA/AUS are the secondary music capitals of the USA. You have music manufacturers, such as Tacoma Guitars and Mackie(who makes mixing boards and PA systems).

Keep in mind that you also have Tokyo(on BOTH UA/NH).........which is useful for the tech business people that go to Asia. Much better connection than what you would get out of SFO/LAX/etc. Also much easier connection for those going to Alaska or Canada, too(AS/UA/AC).......

In the other direction, SEA-AUS could be a useful connection when the SEA to other hubs are sold out. AUS has IAH/ORD/EWR/IAD flights.

Quoting austexflyer (Reply 35):

Yep. I'm currently UA gold, and fluctuate between gold/plat. I don't mind changing at Term C or E in IAH, but B to C or E is terrible. I'm still flying UA because I'd personally rather go through B at IAH then have to deal with DFW, but I understand what you're saying.

That happened to me the last couple of times I went via IAH to AUS.

Quoting aaexecplat (Reply 23):
Those are short term capacity increases because of SXSW and spring break...AISD gets out on 3/8/13 and is back on 3/19/13. SXSW is being held from 3/7/13 through 3/17/13.

There is also the ACL(Austin City Limits) music festival, too. Not as big as SXSW, but still a few more people than normal. I forget when this is going to be happening, though.
 
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Fri Jan 04, 2013 10:47 am

Quoting austexflyer (Reply 35):

I am sure we have seen each other. I am always in white dress shirt, grey suit, and with a black Timbuk2 bag. Every Tuesday from 6a-6:30a....

Quoting FreshSide3 (Reply 38):

ACL is in October these days, and Formula 1 in November. Both events also cause short term capacity increases.
 
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yellowtail
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Fri Jan 04, 2013 1:58 pm

At little of topic....but AUS would be a nice little place for B6 to set up a small hub and then grow it.
They could start by offering AUS-SEA/LGB/JFK/BOS/FLL/IAD/ORD/SFO/DEN
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Longhornmaniac
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Fri Jan 04, 2013 2:09 pm

Quoting austexflyer (Reply 35):
deal with DFW

How does one have to "deal" with DFW? It's by far the best mega-hub in the country, and one of the best in the world for the amount of connecting traffic it has.

Quoting surfandsnow (Reply 37):
mainline is making a comeback on the longer routes

Not sure how you've come to this conclusion? About the only route this is even remotely true is IAD, which continues to see a mix of mainline and RJs, as it has for quite some time. EWR has been cut by a third, and SFO seems to have lost mainline, at least for the time being (it does appear it comes back in March, though).

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 40):

You do know B6 serves LGB, JFK, BOS, FLL, and SFO from AUS, right?

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FlyingSicilian
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Fri Jan 04, 2013 3:33 pm

Quoting Longhornmaniac (Reply 41):
How does one have to "deal" with DFW? It's by far the best mega-hub in the country, and one of the best in the world for the amount of connecting traffic it has.

Not to digress but I disagree completely. I find it horrid for connecting, but the few times I've been O/D there it was fine.

back in the Mueller days I knew plenty of people that O/D'd   from AUS to HOU and WN took all that traffic. Not so sure about the numbers now since ABIA opened.
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Fri Jan 04, 2013 4:04 pm

Quoting aaexecplat (Reply 39):
ACL is in October these days, and Formula 1 in November. Both events also cause short term capacity increases.

In addition to those two events (and SXSW already mentioned) there are some other high-profile races being held this year.

March 1-2 - GRAND-AM Road Racing series
April 19-21 - MotoGP™ - Motorcycle Racing World Championship
May 17-19 - Australian V8 Supercars
September 21 - American Le Mans series - Super Endurance Weekend
September 22 - FIA World Endurance Championship: 6 Hours of Austin - Super Endurance Weekend

Looking to the future in 2-3 more yeas, Austin will be able to start competing for bigger conventions. We've got plenty of convention center space, but currently we have only 1 convention center hotel and it's only 800 rooms. (All the rest of the hotels are around 200-300 rooms and really big conventions have to deal with way too many hotels to be able to house all their attendees.) There's a 1000-room JW Marriott under construction on Congress Avenue now - expected to be completed in 2015, and a 1000-room Fairmont Hotel is expected to break ground this year - also with a completion date sometime in 2015. The thinking is that having a couple more large hotels will make it easier for convention planners to house all their attendees in fewer properties.

There are at least 4 high-rise apartment towers under construction downtown right now, ranging from 16 to 36 stories, and outside the downtown area, some of the major arterial roads are seeing 4 and 5 story rental units with ground floor retail springing up. Just on the 4-mile stretch of road I live on, there's something like 1,700 rental units with ground floor retail under construction right now. It seems everybody and their dog wants to move to Austin.

I've lived here for 30 years and I can't remember seeing so much stuff under construction.

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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Fri Jan 04, 2013 4:29 pm

Quoting surfandsnow (Reply 37):
I think in the future, as UA follows the DL strategy of drastically reducing 50 seat RJ ops in favor of 70 seaters, meaning that many existing 70 seater routes gain (in most cases, regain) mainline service, we will see AUS with strong mainline links to LAX, SFO, DEN, ORD, EWR, and IAD, with a few mainline hops to IAH for major connecting banks

The missing piece in your concept of UA following DL's strategy, however, would be the actual mainline aircraft to operate the routes which you claim would gain/regain mainline service. DL is taking 88 717's at DL mainline from WN/FL which will help to replace the seats eliminated by phasing out the CRJ-200's. UA's order for 737-900ER's generally replaces older sUA 757's.

It is certainly possible that UA could order an aircraft like the C-Series to fill the same role as the 717 at DL, but it appears that UA management is uninterested in having 100-seat aircraft operated by mainline crews.

Quoting FreshSide3 (Reply 38):
In the other direction, SEA-AUS could be a useful connection when the SEA to other hubs are sold out. AUS has IAH/ORD/EWR/IAD flights.

UA has almost zero interest in carrying that sort of traffic if it means operating a point-to-point route. If the non-stops to the hubs from SEA are sold out, then they aren't doing their revenue management correctly.

Quoting Longhornmaniac (Reply 41):
How does one have to "deal" with DFW? It's by far the best mega-hub in the country, and one of the best in the world for the amount of connecting traffic it has.

The new train does help quite a bit, but the semicircular terminals with gates on only one side still mean some long walks. I don't find DFW to be any better than ATL for connections.

Quoting FlyingSicilian (Reply 42):
back in the Mueller days I knew plenty of people that O/D'd from AUS to HOU and WN took all that traffic. Not so sure about the numbers now since ABIA opened.

AUS-HOU/IAH traffic is way, way down since the Mueller days what with 70 MPH speed limits, improvements to SH 71/U.S. 290, the TSA, and Austin-Bergstrom being further from downtown than Mueller was.
 
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Fri Jan 04, 2013 4:47 pm

Quoting ScottB (Reply 44):
AUS-HOU/IAH traffic is way, way down since the Mueller days what with 70 MPH speed limits, improvements to SH 71/U.S. 290, the TSA, and Austin-Bergstrom being further from downtown than Mueller was.

I've heard it is 75mph now!

Did they get a bypass around Bastrop? IH-10 to 71 was a better route for me than 290 normally. fewer stops but it depended on what side of town you were on and going to in each city.

It figures the O/D is way down. Mueller was so close. Thanks for the info.
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yellowtail
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Fri Jan 04, 2013 4:55 pm

Quoting Longhornmaniac (Reply 41):
You do know B6 serves LGB, JFK, BOS, FLL, and SFO from AUS, right?

Yes, I was using the list as the ideal makeup of a small hub for B6
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tommy767
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Fri Jan 04, 2013 5:02 pm

Quoting ScottB (Reply 44):
UA's order for 737-900ER's generally replaces older sUA 757's.

739s are not 1:1 replacement for 757. They will also be used to replace the 735 and ERJ

Quoting Hmelawyer (Reply 34):
As recently as two years ago the Continental operation alone was bigger than Delta.

See I'm perplexed that this is the atmosphere this thread has taken. You do realize that CO served only TWO destinations from AUS: Houston and Newark. With merger you have added LAX, SFO, DEN, IAD, and ORD. That is 5 extra hub destinations that the former CO couldn't take you to non-stop. Not to mention that AUS-IAH was essentially a shuttle/high frequency type route for CO and still is for United..

And as far as CO flying to AUS on only large A/C that's some BS. We all know that AUS saw the ERJ as well. At least now you have RJ's with F class availability.
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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Fri Jan 04, 2013 5:06 pm

Quoting FlyingSicilian (Reply 45):
Did they get a bypass around Bastrop?

Sadly, no. But they've made it a freeway almost all the way to the river crossing east of town. It is 75 east of that light, and save for one town transit that drops to 35(!), it's a pretty easy drive.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 44):
some long walks

I disagree. At most, you have to walk 6 gates to get to a Skylink escalator. 50% of the gates on one of the concourses at ATL require a walk of 6 gates or more. The moving walkways help some, but it's still more walking for more people.

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RE: UA Adding Mainline Capacity To AUS-SFO/LAX?

Fri Jan 04, 2013 5:09 pm

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 47):
And as far as CO flying to AUS on only large A/C that's some BS. We all know that AUS saw the ERJ as well. At least now you have RJ's with F class availability.

That's what I'm thinking - while I guess more mainline would be nice, I don't really begrudge them 2-class/E+ RJ service given that the alternative would the PMCO ERJs (or maybe a Q400 if you were lucky) on anything not mainline.