iowaman
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New Frontier #40

Tue Jan 01, 2013 6:08 pm

As the last discussion was getting quite lengthy for some of our members on slow connections, please continue it here.

Previous thread:
New Frontier #39 (by mariner Oct 12 2012 in Civil Aviation)
 
GentFromAlaska
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RE: New Frontier #40

Wed Jan 02, 2013 3:56 pm

I suppose I'll break the thread #40 ice. For the non-email subscribers F9 is offering a decent fare sale from 59 destinations. Three of eighteen cities with exceptional fares stood out from BNA. I'm sure there are others.

BNA to SAN for $69 (the ocean)
BNA to PHX for $70 (the desert)
BNA to DEN for $78 (the snow)

Something for everybody I suppose. I didn't check; I suppose travel is valid in either direction
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enilria
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RE: New Frontier #40

Wed Jan 02, 2013 4:54 pm

Quoting GentfromAlaska
Quoting enilria (Reply 246):
into treating DEN as a destination for small-town America flown 3 times per week. Two Chicagos and Seattles are pretty much what they offer now

Are you forgetting the four daily DEN-DCA?.


I think you are forgetting that F9 has never offered more than three daily DEN-DCA flights and cannot operate any more than three since they do not have operational authority for a 4th beyond perimeter slot pair.

Additionally, if they ever surrendered one of the DEN-DCA slots, a route that is artificially limited by regulations to allow F9 to have 75% of the service, I'd assume F9 was on the verge of shutdown. Any route where F9 is legally handed a 75% capacity share should be a no-brainer gold mine. I have no reason to think that DCA isn't. There is no other market where that is the case, however. It is the only market F9 flies from DEN where other carriers cannot enter and exit the market freely (FL/WN have entered Mexico routes without problem; slots can be acquired at LGA and we have seen WN add the market using acquired slots). BTW, F9 reduced from 4 to 2 DEN-LGA RTs almost exactly when WN entered the LGA market with 2 rts.

[Edited 2013-01-02 09:00:33]

[Edited 2013-01-02 09:01:44]
 
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mariner
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RE: New Frontier #40

Wed Jan 02, 2013 6:31 pm

Given that "something" is likely to happen with separation later this year, I've been thinking of buying a few (more) RJET shares, just a small, fun amount.

I should have done so. RJET is presently up between16% and 18% today (and has been higher) on huge volume, easily establishing a new 52 week high at about $6.70.

The only "news" I can find is a note from Dahlman Rose reiterating its position, which gives some interesting numbers:

http://www.jagsreport.com/2013/01/re...g-reaffirmed-by-dahlman-rose-rjet/

"Republic Airways Holdings Stock Rating Reaffirmed by Dahlman Rose (RJET)

“Total unit revenue growth at Republic’s Frontier subsidiary is expected to increase by 5% y/y, up from prior guidance of up 4% y/y. Frontier non-fuel costs are expected to be down by 8%, compared to prior guidance of down 5%. As a result of higher revenues and lower costs, Frontier generated a profit margin of 2% to 3% in the quarter. The Republic Airways subsidiary is expected to report a pretax profit of $20 MM to $25MM, up from prior 4Q12 guidance of $15 MM to $20MM."


The share price is a bit too rich for me at the moment, even at a fun buy, but I imagine there'll be a bit of a pull back in the next couple of days - fingers crossed for it, anyway.

mariner

[Edited 2013-01-02 10:34:14]
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enilria
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RE: New Frontier #40

Wed Jan 02, 2013 6:40 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 3):
I should have done so. RJET is presently up between16% and 18% today (and has been higher) on huge volume, easily establishing a new 52 week high at about $6.70.

A lot of stocks are popping on no news today. Fiscal Cliff driven says the analysts. Companies with a lot of risk are the ones that benefit the most perhaps...
 
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RE: New Frontier #40

Wed Jan 02, 2013 6:42 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 4):
A lot of stocks are popping on no news today. Fiscal Cliff driven says the analysts. Companies with a lot of risk are the ones that benefit the most perhaps...

No other airline has double digit percentage gains. Allegiant, scarcely a "high risk" company, is highest at 3.2% as I write this.

What is more interesting - to me - are the numbers that Dahlman Rose gives.

mariner

[Edited 2013-01-02 10:54:54]
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kingcavalier
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RE: New Frontier #40

Wed Jan 02, 2013 7:30 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 4):
A lot of stocks are popping on no news today. Fiscal Cliff driven says the analysts. Companies with a lot of risk are the ones that benefit the most perhaps...


RJET is far from high risk. However, it could be argued that RJET would currently not be profitable without F9. I personally believe Bedford doesn't want to get rid of F9, but he is forced to create some blue skies between RJET and F9 because of pilot contract integration issues. The only news that came out today, and what probably triggered the stock buy today, is the news from the analyst that Mariner quoted - “Total unit revenue growth at Republic’s Frontier subsidiary is expected to increase by 5% y/y, up from prior guidance of up 4% y/y. Frontier non-fuel costs are expected to be down by 8%, compared to prior guidance of down 5%. As a result of higher revenues and lower costs, Frontier generated a profit margin of 2% to 3% in the quarter. The Republic Airways subsidiary is expected to report a pretax profit of $20 MM to $25MM, up from prior 4Q12 guidance of $15 MM to $20MM."

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ALK 43.95 +0.86 (2.00%)
DAL 12.27 +0.40 (3.33%)
GLUX 2.00 +0.00 (0.00%)
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JBLU 5.91 +0.19 (3.32%)
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SKYW 12.72 +0.26 (2.09%)

I am concerned as we enter what is Frontier's historically weakest quarter, but I am happy to see the E190s leaving Frontier and moving to Caesars Entertainment. The E190 reliability has been horrible lately, so I am pleased to see that issue removed. E190 maintenance and crew issues have hurt Frontier's brand image the last few weeks. We've still got E190s scheduled to fly for F9 until September, but hopefully, those aircraft find a home sooner rather than later. Now, F9 needs to procure some A320s to grow a little or at least stop retrenching due to aircraft availability.
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RE: New Frontier #40

Wed Jan 02, 2013 7:50 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 5):
Quoting enilria (Reply 4):A lot of stocks are popping on no news today. Fiscal Cliff driven says the analysts. Companies with a lot of risk are the ones that benefit the most perhaps...
No other airline has double digit percentage gains. Allegiant, scarcely a "high risk" company, is highest at 3.2% as I write this.

What is more interesting - to me - are the numbers that Dahlman Rose gives.

mariner

The stock is responding to an 8-K with company earnings guidance for Q4 2012 and full year 2013 released by RJET at 5pm on Dec 31 which can be accessed in the SEC section here:

http://www.republicairways.com/investorrelations.html

Hightlights:
Q4 2012 earning expected $0.30-$0.36 up from previous guidance of $0.18-$0.24
Unrestricted cash at YE 2012 up to $235mm from previous guidance of $210mm
Frontier Q4 operation margin 2%-3% up from previous guidance of 0%-2%

2013 consolidated EPS expected to be $1.35 to $1.90/share
$60mm unrestricted cash generated in 2013
Estimate include the fact that the Q400 contract will still be ramping up in 2013.

Republic's AMR contract extended by 18 months and repriced to current aircraft ownership economics.
Several RFP for contract flying are in the market which could cause earnings to increase.
Doesn't include potential one-time cost of signing a new labor agreement with Republic pilots.

As a shareholder, this is great news and confirms the ecomonics of the two brilliant restructurings. The reason for the +20% move in shares today is a combination of this good news and the panic buying of those holding 3.8 million shares currently held short. The shorts were no doubt encouraged by misplaced bankruptcy fears and Frontier-failure "convential wisdom" frequently posted on sites such as airliners.net. To those who promoted such dire predictions, I thank you for giving me and others the opportunity to buy at bargin prices! Happy New Year!!

[Edited 2013-01-02 11:52:16]

[Edited 2013-01-02 11:54:17]
 
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RE: New Frontier #40

Wed Jan 02, 2013 9:51 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 2):
F9 has never offered more than three daily DEN-DCA flights

Fair enough someone mentioned F9 offered four daily DEN-DCA flights a few threads back. I accepted the statement as being factual. They may have been counting the DEN-MSN MSN-DCA as the fourth.
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RE: New Frontier #40

Thu Jan 03, 2013 1:55 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 3):
I should have done so. RJET is presently up between16% and 18% today (and has been higher) on huge volume, easily establishing a new 52 week high at about $6.70.
Quoting mariner (Reply 5):
No other airline has double digit percentage gains.
Quoting enilria (Reply 4):
A lot of stocks are popping on no news today. Fiscal Cliff driven says the analysts.

There was some news Monday Dec 31 reported by the U.S. television biz media that AS and F9 are # 1 and 2 in a personal preference airline safety poll as being the two safest airlines operating in the U.S. I'm trying to find the article. I believe F9 still aligns under RJET which would explain the stock uptick.
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FutureFO
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RE: New Frontier #40

Thu Jan 03, 2013 2:59 am

F9 and RAH report as 2 different entities. If you look at the quarterly releases for financials.
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RE: New Frontier #40

Thu Jan 03, 2013 3:35 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 3):
I've been thinking of buying a few (more) RJET shares, just a small, fun amount.

The street must like something. RJET was up is up another 0.18 cents in mid morning trading Thursday..
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RE: New Frontier #40

Thu Jan 03, 2013 3:47 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 5):
No other airline has double digit percentage gains. Allegiant, scarcely a "high risk" company, is highest at 3.2% as I write this.

Allegiant does gain disproportionately from an increase in disposable income among the middle class...as a leisure carrier.

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 8):
Fair enough someone mentioned F9 offered four daily DEN-DCA flights a few threads back.

Yes, they were probably counting an inside perimeter slot. I'm not even sure that stuff still exists, but DEN is 3.
 
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RE: New Frontier #40

Thu Jan 03, 2013 5:16 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 12):
Allegiant does gain disproportionately from an increase in disposable income among the middle class...as a leisure carrier.

That isn't working for it - Allegiant - today.

mariner

[Edited 2013-01-03 09:19:04]
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RE: New Frontier #40

Fri Jan 04, 2013 12:00 pm

Quoting kingcavalier (Reply 6):
The E190 reliability has been horrible lately, so I am pleased to see that issue removed. E190 maintenance and crew issues have hurt Frontier's brand image the last few weeks. We've still got E190s scheduled to fly for F9 until September, but hopefully, those aircraft find a home sooner rather than later. Now, F9 needs to procure some A320s to grow a little or at least stop retrenching due to aircraft availability.

The 190 reliability issue has got notghing to do with the airplane itself. Let me leave it at that. This, of course, is my opinion and my own observation only.
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RE: New Frontier #40

Fri Jan 04, 2013 4:53 pm

Quoting bahadir (Reply 14):
The 190 reliability issue has got notghing to do with the airplane itself. Let me leave it at that. This, of course, is my opinion and my own observation only.

I'd guess there is a wind-down of the parts inventory going on.

BTW, anybody else heard rumors that RJET will takeover Pinnacle from Delta shortly after they exit? It was just announced that Delta will own Pinnacle post-Ch11 because of their DIP financing, but DL has made it clear in the past they do not wish to own regionals any more. That seems to be at the root of the rumor. I guess TransStates could also "buy" them, but I think Skywest has too many eggs in the Delta basket already to be involved leaving only really RJET who always wants more Delta business and maybe TransStates.
 
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RE: New Frontier #40

Fri Jan 04, 2013 5:32 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 15):
BTW, anybody else heard rumors that RJET will takeover Pinnacle from Delta shortly after they exit?

Somehow the regionals have to find a way to be more in control of their own destinies. The legacies have merged their way into controlling certain hubs and restricting growth. But they still need to feed those hubs from smaller airport catchment areas. So maybe more mergers in the regional ranks will give them more power at the table. Hard to see how Delta would benefit from this other than not owning another regional.

The RAH pilots' contract was amenable in 2007 and they have been in and out of negotiations ever since. Right now RJET and its pilots (not Frontier) are meeting with a senior mediator from the NMB. The pilots have previously asked to be released but the previous mediator decided it wasn't time, yet.

It's all a guessing game to me.
RJET's stock has certainly had a bump in the last couple of days, but that may simply be the result of a positive earnings restatement for the fourth quarter of 2012.
 
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RE: New Frontier #40

Fri Jan 04, 2013 5:54 pm

Quoting BostonMike (Reply 16):
Somehow the regionals have to find a way to be more in control of their own destinies.

I think what the legacies have done with buying and spinning off regionals is nearly fraud. Spinning off a company completely dependent upon you for revenue and then choking them to death a few years later after you count your IPO/sale cash seems illegal, but I guess you could just say investors are stupid.

I think where I'd start is that the legacy should always on the plane. It's just crazy to buy a 20 year airplane for a 5 year contract.

Quoting BostonMike (Reply 16):
Hard to see how Delta would benefit from this other than not owning another regional.

That's the reason. Delta doesn't want to own a regional. There are also labor implications. Delta's own union issues are eased by making these regionals completely separate.
 
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mariner
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RE: New Frontier #40

Fri Jan 04, 2013 6:37 pm

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 9):
There was some news Monday Dec 31 reported by the U.S. television biz media that AS and F9 are # 1 and 2 in a personal preference airline safety poll as being the two safest airlines operating in the U.S. I'm trying to find the article.

Here you go, here's one of the articles about it:

http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/news/2013/01/02/rudest-airlines.html

"Rudest airlines? United's naughty, Frontier's nice

Two of Denver International Airport%u2019s biggest carriers rank at the opposite ends of a new survey on rude airline employees by Airfarewatchdog.com."


It's fun, but not a lot more than that. "Likeability" doesn't seem to affect how some airlines do - viz Ryanair.

Quoting kingcavalier (Reply 6):
I am concerned as we enter what is Frontier's historically weakest quarter, but I am happy to see the E190s leaving Frontier and moving to Caesars Entertainment.

  

I suppose the departure of the E190's will be the most visible sign of separation yet, at least to a.net, and Q1 2013, this quarter, was always going to be the most interesting quarter in this complex - and extraordinary - restructure.

I'm not expecting a profit in this quarter. The airline is still carrying un-separated baggage and fuel is up again, but break-even or a modest loss would be, in itself, an achievement.

And while I agree about more A320's, I'd rather see profit before growth.

Meanwhile the RJET stock price is still at the races, presently at a two year high.

mariner

[Edited 2013-01-04 11:00:40]
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EricR
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RE: New Frontier #40

Fri Jan 04, 2013 7:13 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 17):
I think what the legacies have done with buying and spinning off regionals is nearly fraud. Spinning off a company completely dependent upon you for revenue and then choking them to death a few years later after you count your IPO/sale cash seems illegal, but I guess you could just say investors are stupid.

The answer is that investors are naive (or stupid), but I would not call it anything close to fraud by the legacies. These spinoffs are in full disclosure. Only foolish investors would be willing to invest money in a company (in this case regional carriers) that receives 100% of their total revenue from 1 or 2 customers (in this case legacy carriers).
 
FRNT787
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RE: New Frontier #40

Fri Jan 04, 2013 7:44 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 15):
BTW, anybody else heard rumors that RJET will takeover Pinnacle from Delta shortly after they exit? It was just announced that Delta will own Pinnacle post-Ch11 because of their DIP financing, but DL has made it clear in the past they do not wish to own regionals any more.

Other than from you, I have not heard it anywhere. That said, it is quite possible.

Concerns:
Bombardier fleet
Staff issues
Financing
Future contracts

IMO, the Bombardier fleet is not a concern. Pinnacle's plan is to exit bankruptcy with 81 CRJ900s. This is a sufficiently large fleet, and in Republic's case, joins a fleet of 32 Q400s (whatever that would be worth). Additionally, the engines on the CRJ900s should be similar enough to those on the E-Jets. (they both use CF34s if I recall) The fleet plan at Pinnacle fits in line with that of Republic as well. Pinnacle will, untimatey, not add unprofitable 50 seat flying. Such a deal would further Republic's position in providing 70+ seat lift.

Financing the deal could be a sticking point. If DL works a deal with RAH similar to that of what they worked with Trans States with the Compass deal. A lot will depend on the price of Pinnacle exiting Chapter 11.

The biggest concern could be staff issues at RAH. They have been working for some time to work out a contract with their pilots. This needs to happen, and even more so if Pinnacle is added to the mix. If Pinnacle is added prior to RJET having a pilot contract, then more integration issues could arise.

One concern for me is if such a deal were to occur, it could tie RAH up to the point where they could be limited in their ability to compete with the other regionals for new contracts at United and American. Those have potentially huge contracts coming likely this year. RAH needs to make sure they are in a position to make a play for those deals.
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RE: New Frontier #40

Fri Jan 04, 2013 9:08 pm

TTN Trivia Department:

In September (before Frontier) it was announced that The Runway Restaurant at Trenton Airport had fallen on evil financial times, it couldn't pay the rent, and its lease was in jeopardy:

http://www.nj.com/mercer/index.ssf/2...renton-mercer_airports_runway.html

"Trenton-Mercer Airport's Runway restaurant could lose its lease"

The axe has fallen and the restaurant has closed:

http://www.nj.com/mercer/index.ssf/2...nton-mercer_airports_runway_1.html

"Trenton-Mercer Airport's Runway restaurant closes up shop"

Given how much the restaurant owed, it is completely unsurprising. More than that, it was a full-service, up-market menu, almost fine dining, when I guess it needed burgers. Originally, there was some suggestion that the airport would look for a new tenant, but that doesn't appear to have happened (yet?) and I guess the space could be used for other things.

However, tucked away is the following:

"Frontier Airlines began flying out of the Ewing airport in November, offering cheap flights to Orlando, Fla. The Denver company has already announced it will expand service to Tampa, Fort Lauderdale and Fort Myers, Fla. and to New Orleans. The company said yesterday it will make another announcement on expanded service on Monday but did not provide further details"

That last sentence is the intriguing one - although, as always, I'll believe it when and if it happens.

mariner

[Edited 2013-01-04 13:13:02]
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GentFromAlaska
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RE: New Frontier #40

Fri Jan 04, 2013 9:12 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 18):
Here you go, here's one of the articles about it:

Thank you Mariner; that may or may not be it. It was reported on Fox Business News. I only caught bits and pieces of the story and remember it having to do with safety with F9 and AS. But maybe not!

http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/news/2013/01/02/rudest-airlines.html This appears to be DEN-centric and although F9 AS are mentioned UA was not in the story I was thinking about. Keep up the good work F9 and from my own backyard AS.
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CarsAir04
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RE: New Frontier #40

Sat Jan 05, 2013 1:55 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 21):
Given how much the restaurant owed, it is completely unsurprising. More than that, it was a full-service, up-market menu, almost fine dining, when I guess it needed burgers. Originally, there was some suggestion that the airport would look for a new tenant, but that doesn't appear to have happened (yet?) and I guess the space could be used for other things.

I didn't read the article so forgive me if it mentions that the restaurant had been closed since the Hurricane also, as the roof was heavily damaged. I wonder if the combination of having to rebuild, past due rent etc forced the closure.
 
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RE: New Frontier #40

Sat Jan 05, 2013 2:09 am

Quoting CarsAir04 (Reply 23):
I didn't read the article so forgive me if it mentions that the restaurant had been closed since the Hurricane also, as the roof was heavily damaged. I wonder if the combination of having to rebuild, past due rent etc forced the closure.

The hurricane maybe didn't help, but as noted, the Freeholders were voting to cancel the lease as long ago as September 27 - before the hurricane and before Frontier started service at TTN.

More recently (December 13), the Freeholders voted for emergency funds to facilitate the roof repairs.

http://www.nj.com/mercer/index.ssf/2...roof_repair_at_trenton-mercer.html

"The freeholder board approved the additional $45,000 and the estimated $1 million bill that was presented to them at a meeting earlier this week with no opposition.

mariner
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smoot4208
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RE: New Frontier #40

Sat Jan 05, 2013 7:17 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 21):
The company said yesterday it will make another announcement on expanded service on Monday but did not provide further details"

Could see DEN-TTN being announced as seasonal service starting in May. Also wouldn't be surprised if that replaced either RSW or MSY once the peak seasons for those two markets ends.
 
BA0197
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RE: New Frontier #40

Sat Jan 05, 2013 9:03 pm

For God's sake can F9 add a few flights from IAH. I work at gates 29 and 27 and they leave from gate 30 at IAH terminal A. Ever since they came back I cannot remember a SINGLE occasion where the gate agent has not said her usually announcement of "This will be a completely full flight and overhead bin space will be limited. If you would like to tag your bag to its final destination see me at the podium."

They could easily have 4 flights a day by the sound of it.
 
GentFromAlaska
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RE: New Frontier #40

Sun Jan 06, 2013 3:01 am

Quoting smoot4208 (Reply 25):
Could see DEN-TTN being announced as seasonal service

That would make the most sense.

I got curious and started searching for any type of flyer polls which may have been conducted by TTN to gauge where Trenton wants to fly to. It is my understanding most airports keep this types of data.

According to the RITA data as of September 2012 ACY, (Atlantic City) BED (Bedford MA) and HPN are the three most popular destination airports from TTN TTN&Airport_Name=Trenton,%20NJ:%20Trenton%20Mercer&carrier=FACTS" target="_blank">http://www.transtats.bts.gov/airport...:%20Trenton%20Mercer&carrier=FACTS Of course that will change as the F9 stats start flowing in. This is why I mentioned a potential partnership with 9K out of TTN if it is doable.

I noticed there is/was quite a bit of military heritage around Trenton including a bombing squadron from yesteryear. Citing the TTN-BED stat above BED if memory serves me is or is near Hanscom AFB Mass.

Additionally the more than 400% uptick in flights at TTN year over year from 2011 to 2012 caught my eye also. That is significant for a general aviation airport.
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Jerseyguy
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RE: New Frontier #40

Sun Jan 06, 2013 1:25 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 21):
Given how much the restaurant owed, it is completely unsurprising. More than that, it was a full-service, up-market menu, almost fine dining, when I guess it needed burgers

Their lunch menu was pretty good in that regard, with Burgers, Sandwiches and Pasta for reasonable prices. They could have just added a few dinner items and it would have worked fine. Though prior to Frontiers entrance they didn't have much in the way of commerical passengers just the private jet types with like 2 flights from Streamline a day.

http://therunwayonline.com/lunch_menu.html

Quoting smoot4208 (Reply 25):

Could see DEN-TTN being announced as seasonal service starting in May. Also wouldn't be surprised if that replaced either RSW or MSY once the peak seasons for those two markets ends.

That could work possibly especially with their discontination of the DEN-PHL route, some of their PHL travelers who live in Philly's Northern Suburbs and parts of Jersey could help. My hope is that they would do 4x-5x/weekly in the summer (when supposedly they were doing very well on the DEN-PHL route) and then maybe 2x-3x in the winter.

I have a SLC trip coming up in August, I would definately consider doing TTN-DEN-SLC. Plus we'll see how I like using TTN later this month when I do TTN-MCO.
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mariner
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RE: New Frontier #40

Sun Jan 06, 2013 8:12 pm

Quoting smoot4208 (Reply 25):
Could see DEN-TTN being announced as seasonal service starting in May. Also wouldn't be surprised if that replaced either RSW or MSY once the peak seasons for those two markets ends.

I guess DEN is the obvious one, but, as I said, I'm not technical. Because of the runway, I don't know if it is possible or what the payload hit might be - or even if there would be a payload hit.

And I don't know about RSW/MSY. Two of the pillars of the restructure are lower frequency and seasonality, and I'm not sure why anyone would go to RSW or MSY in July/August.

Or Florida generally. I remember being in a very expensive restaurant in New York in August and someone talked about going to Miami the next week. The reply was a shocked "at this time of year?"

But people do go, so I don't know. Equally, I don't know if the benefits of nursing those routes through the summer heat (if they need it) would outweigh the benefits of dropping them for a few weeks.

It's what intrigues me about TTN. Frontier has cleared the first hurdle - will folk use it at all? And, based on present bookings, seems to have cleared the second hurdle - will they use it to anywhere other than MCO?

The next hurdle, I guess, is how much will TTN folk use it, how often and to where. There is very little precedent for what may happen at TTN.

mariner
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RE: New Frontier #40

Sun Jan 06, 2013 8:15 pm

Quoting jerseyguy (Reply 28):
Their lunch menu was pretty good in that regard, with Burgers, Sandwiches and Pasta for reasonable prices.

Juneau (JNU) Alaska has a like restaurant in their airport which is probably the size of TTN which catered to fliers. They brought in a new sheriff who started marketing it to the locals with free validated parking.

As stated Hurricane Sandy was probably the final straw for TTN. You would think TTN would have done the same with its free parking. Patronage in JNU was said to have doubled. It was amazing how many people started using it with just the free parking perk and how many didn't know the restaurant existed. Having the freshest salmon and halibut also helped.
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RE: New Frontier #40

Mon Jan 07, 2013 1:41 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 29):
Or Florida generally. I remember being in a very expensive restaurant in New York in August and someone talked about going to Miami the next week. The reply was a shocked "at this time of year?"

Florida in the summer is popular with families because the kids have an extended period of time off and Disney is down there. Most places have pools and theres always the beach if the kids need to cool off. Plus better deals then lets say Christmas because there is more than just a 1-2 week window to travel. Would I go to FL in summer no but I get the whole year to choose when to take time off, families do not.
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enilria
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RE: New Frontier #40

Mon Jan 07, 2013 2:58 am

Quoting EricR (Reply 19):
The answer is that investors are naive (or stupid), but I would not call it anything close to fraud by the legacies. These spinoffs are in full disclosure.

The service contract between the carriers is never fully disclosed, so I think that is where the potential illegality is located.

Quoting FRNT787 (Reply 20):
Financing the deal could be a sticking point.

I think PBCL will be basically free. DL owns the planes. No other real assets.

Quoting mariner (Reply 21):
The company said yesterday it will make another announcement on expanded service on Monday but did not provide further details"

That last sentence is the intriguing one - although, as always, I'll believe it when and if it happens.
Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 27):
Quoting smoot4208 (Reply 25):
Could see DEN-TTN being announced as seasonal service

That would make the most sense.

I think they will announce that they will double their operations there. How long it survives is the question mark. I hope for the best, but the track record worries me a lot. The geography of TTN is very interesting, but it's hard to communicate that in markets that aren't Trenton outbound like Florida. I think they have expended their leisure options with the current network, so this next round is going to be more VFR/business markets along the lines of a COS-LAX. Those will be harder. We'll see...
 
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RE: New Frontier #40

Mon Jan 07, 2013 3:50 am

Quoting jerseyguy (Reply 31):
Would I go to FL in summer no but I get the whole year to choose when to take time off, families do not.

I would probably avoid it, although I admit I did go to Miami once in July, for a few days, on my way to Puerto Rico. It was hot and oppressive, but not more than I've experienced in other places. I haven't experienced August in Florida.

Assuming there is growth at TTN - and it isn't a given - I assume Frontier will maintain this leisure focus. I wonder if TTN-PBI will ever appear on the route map, and I assume that even DEN - if it can happen - would be (mostly) leisure, and some of that on the way to LAS, etc.

There's also the question of BOS - a couple of airlines have tried to make that work from TTN, and I guess it could - for leisure, seasonal, Summer/Fall. BUF or IAG? That assumes Niagara is still good for summer, but it's a long time since I've been there.

The runway length may affect anything much further south than Florida. I guess SJU or STT or PUJ would be out (but if DEN why not?) but MYR and NAS are easily possible. I wonder - I don't know - if Apple has any interest, they do quite a lot of business in Nassau and Princeton might be pleased, given its at least conceptual links.  

The big problem is that at some point, I guess the Nimbys will start to make their voices heard, so I am not expecting TTN to become anything too big.

But, like so much of what is happening such as the rigid discipline with the fleet, TTN is already what I have long hoped Frontier would be. It's the question that has dogged Frontier since I first became aware of the airline - the "other hub" - and the answer may be that there isn't one, there isn't another DEN, just several smaller opportunities.

So I'm hoping Frontier doesn't throw too much at TTN too soon. In my world, less can often be very much more.

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RE: New Frontier #40

Mon Jan 07, 2013 5:47 am

This is wierd, if the paper is correct and there is a TTN expansion why is F9 offering 3X miles on TTN routes

TTN-FLL,TTN-RSW,TTN-MCO: TTN-TPA,TTN-MSY

http://www.flyfrontier.com/frequent-.../member-offers/

Rules for FLL (others are the same)
This promotion is open to all EarlyReturns members who register for the promotion prior to qualifying flight activity. Members must register online at FlyFrontier.com/memberoffers, using promo code TPFLL. Bonus mileage offer is valid for all qualifying Frontier Airlines flights between Princeton/Trenton, NJ, and Ft. Lauderdale, FL, January 31, 2013, through February 28, 2013. Members must fly on published fare tickets and request to earn EarlyReturns miles to qualify for the triple miles. Classic or Classic Plus fares will also earn triple miles on the base flight miles flown. Bonus miles do not count toward elite status. This promotion may not be combined with any other mileage promotion and is offered in conjunction with all program rules and procedures. Additional restrictions may apply. Frontier Airlines is the final authority on the interpretation of these rules.

BTW: I missed out on half the miles as I leave on January 28th and return on February 3rd.

[Edited 2013-01-06 21:54:21]

[Edited 2013-01-06 21:55:05]
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mariner
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RE: New Frontier #40

Mon Jan 07, 2013 6:09 am

Quoting jerseyguy (Reply 34):

This is wierd, if the paper is correct and there is a TTN expansion why is F9 offering 3X miles on TTN routes

To encourage Trenton folk to join Early Returns. The more members they have, the more likely those members are to fly Frontier - perhaps on other routes.

They are certainly trying to make a splash there. They're doing a number of things to endear themselves to Trenton and make themselves known - advertising even, which is unusual for Frontier.

They have, it seems, learned from past mistakes.

mariner

[Edited 2013-01-06 22:33:11]
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RE: New Frontier #40

Mon Jan 07, 2013 6:39 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 33):
TTN is already what I have long hoped Frontier would be. It's the question that has dogged Frontier since I first became aware of the airline - the "other hub" - and the answer may be that there isn't one, there isn't another DEN, just several smaller opportunities.

IMO, It still remains to be seen whether TTN is actually profitable. I do think DEN-TTN could work (although I think DEN-ABE would've garnered worked better). I do believe they are doing the right thing by advertising and actually making themselves known, but let's not forget, they expanded COS (after they announced PDX/SEA) to MCO & SAN, and now all all four are gone come March. So just because they are expanding TTN, doesn't mean we should all believe its not in the red as of now.

While you believe otherwise, I think all the eggs in one basket seems to be their best bet. DEN is what works for them. They've invested several aircraft into COS/MCO/TTN. At the end of the day, what would've made more money for them? DEN + 2 small hubs or just a stronger DEN. That's the question that no one on here can actually answer.
 
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RE: New Frontier #40

Mon Jan 07, 2013 7:00 am

Quoting smoot4208 (Reply 36):
IMO, It still remains to be seen whether TTN is actually profitable.

Surely, that's true.

Even if every flight out of TTN proves to be profitable (which is unlikely), I doubt that TTN itself will be for some time, because of the amount of money they're spending on it, which has to be recouped.

Quoting smoot4208 (Reply 36):
So just because they are expanding TTN, doesn't mean we should all believe its not in the red as of now.

I don't who's claiming that it is profitable - see above.

And I don't know that they will be expanding TTN - it's just one sentence in a local paper. As I said, I'll believe it if it happens. Until then, it is just speculation.

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RE: New Frontier #40

Mon Jan 07, 2013 7:13 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 37):
I don't know who's claiming that it is profitable - see above.

I should correct myself. No one is claiming that as of now. I guess I'm just no where near as excited to see the recent expansion there as others seem. Considering F9 is losing airplanes, I'm just not sure that reducing DEN flying to subsidize the TTN/MCO flying is the right path to take.
 
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RE: New Frontier #40

Mon Jan 07, 2013 7:30 am

Quoting smoot4208 (Reply 38):
Considering F9 is losing airplanes, I'm just not sure that reducing DEN flying to subsidize the TTN/MCO flying is the right path to take.

That's not a debate for me - there are too many polarized opinions. Many a.netters believe that Frontier cannot possibly survive at DEN, that DEN can't support three hubbing airlines.

I don't agree with that. I believe Frontier can survive at DEN (and appears to be doing so) but not if it just flies the same routes as everyone else.

Certainly, Jeff Potter thought that DEN was the answer, which is why his attempts to break out were so misjudged and half-hearted.

Sean Menke believed that there had to be more to Frontier than DEN - but DEN had to be profitable first. Silent Siegel has mostly been silent on it but what he has said - and with which I entirely agree - is that Frontier doesn't do enough (winter) north/south flying, which is partly why it has always done so poorly in the winter.

And since north/south options are more limited from DEN, it has to be somewhere else. Hopefully, TTN, a unique and special case, but, looking ahead, there may be one or two others.

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RE: New Frontier #40

Mon Jan 07, 2013 8:09 am

I know that this is in no way scientific (far from it actually) but I used seat maps for all of the TTN-MCO flights in January and February (only in that direction because the one direction was time consuming enough) and figured out an rough approximation of the loads.

TTN-MCO January is approximately an average of 73% sold
TTN-MCO February is approximately an average of 57% sold (keeping in mind they have more time to sell the flights then January)

Some flights of note were 2/5/13 with only 38% of seats filled and 2/15/13 with a huge 87% of seats filled (not surprising with it being Presidents day weekend). Now I realize that 3rd party reservations such as those booked with Travelocity and Expedia are assigned at check-in but I think a bulk of these tickets are purchased thru flyfrontier.com because of the advertising. All this being said, they seemed to be offering alot of lower fares perhaps in a attempt to have more people try TTN, altough there are some days that are expensive. Bottom line is we don't know, hopefully we will get offical load numbers in the next few months to see how they ended up and of course we will have to see what the announcement will be later this morning (if the TofT is accurate)
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RE: New Frontier #40

Mon Jan 07, 2013 2:03 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 37):
Quoting smoot4208 (Reply 36):
IMO, It still remains to be seen whether TTN is actually profitable.

Surely, that's true.

It just started. They wouldn't really know until they have seen all the seasons. Even if Winter is decent, that doesn't mean it's a profitable market. Plus, Winter Florida routes have little bearing on what they are adding. They are jumping into the unknown. They did the same thing in COS and LAX and LAX and MEM and... Hope it works better.

Expect DL to add TTN-ATL.
 
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RE: New Frontier #40

Mon Jan 07, 2013 4:33 pm

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RE: New Frontier #40

Mon Jan 07, 2013 5:08 pm

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 42):
Here is the new TTN service announcement http://media.flyfrontier.com/article...1290&

I guess they didn't take my advice - LOL.

I like MDW very much. And maybe DTW. I'm okay about ATL but I hoped they talked to Delta. RDU/CMH - I guess they know something I don't.

Quoting jerseyguy (Reply 40):
I know that this is in no way scientific (far from it actually) but I used seat maps for all of the TTN-MCO flights in January and February (only in that direction because the one direction was time consuming enough) and figured out an rough approximation of the loads.

Just as a heads up, the seat maps are completely unreliable. Frontier fudges them deliberately, especially at TTN, to prevent people from doing exactly what you just tried to do.  

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RE: New Frontier #40

Tue Jan 08, 2013 1:04 am

Well I guess we know where the MCO flying is going. MCO-MKE/MSN/ABE/SHD/OMA(all but once a week) ends on 07Apr13. he extra airplane from that will start the new TTN routes on 08Apr13.

TTN-CMH is very surprising to me. Best of luck to them on these new routes. Might just be a glitch as of now, but one can't connect in MDW to get to DEN even though it's the same airplane. (I'm assuming TTN-DEN would've taken too much of a payload hit or they would've announced that.) Also, if they're going to try and build up TTN, then I'd like to at least see them add BOS. It would help RDU/MSY/Florida markets with some flow traffic.
 
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RE: New Frontier #40

Tue Jan 08, 2013 2:04 am

I called that on TTN-MDW and was dissed for it...so be it
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RE: New Frontier #40

Tue Jan 08, 2013 3:02 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 43):
I like MDW very much. And maybe DTW. I'm okay about ATL

Outside of TTN being a P2P focus city I wonder what if anything connects the new cities to TTN I thought Chi-town was a given when I posted my where does TTN want to fly post a couple of nights ago. How could Chi-town not be in the grander scheme of things. F9 has obviously found a under served niche between PHL and NYC.

Yesteryear TTN area use to have a significant footprint in textile industry. As far as DTW the car manufacturing is making a slow comeback. Much of that moved south. The only two things I can think of which tie Princeton and the greater RDU area is they are significant college towns. Like you CMH and TTN stump me. A stretch might be a tie in with energy (coal) and or possibly steel. They obviously know something about ATL we don't with six day a week service.

Also of notable mention http://njtoday.net/2012/08/31/senato...ng-to-improve-new-jersey-airports/ 18.6 Million dollars earmarked for 5 NJ airports with 13 Million going to TTN. You almost have to think TTN is being groomed to become the fifth greater NYC airport behind JFK, LGA, EWR, ISP.
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RE: New Frontier #40

Tue Jan 08, 2013 3:17 am

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 46):
Also of notable mention http://njtoday.net/2012/08/31/senato...ng-to-improve-new-jersey-airports/ 18.6 Million dollars earmarked for 5 NJ airports with 13 Million going to TTN. You almost have to think TTN is being groomed to become the fifth greater NYC airport behind JFK, LGA, EWR, ISP.

Sorry, Gent, no. Or - not in the immediate future, anyway.

While there have been plans to expand (or rebuild) the terminal. the airport gives a public commitment that they aren't planning to lengthen the runway:

http://nj.gov/counties/mercer/departments/airport/faqs.html

"Is the airport expanding?

No. TTN is proposing to replace our functionally obsolete two gate terminal with a new, modern two gate facility.

We will not be lengthening any runways. We are improving the airport, not expanding it.


The $13 million was a safety feature - an EMAS system at the end of the runway:

http://nj.gov/counties/mercer/news/releases/approved/120927.html

"Mercer County Executive Brian M. Hughes today announced the completion of the installation of Engineered Material Arresting System (EMAS) beds at the ends of Runway 16-34 at Trenton-Mercer Airport. The installation was made possible with a $13.4 million grant from the Federal Aviation Administration, and a $353,000 grant from the New Jersey Department of Transportation.

The beds are made of lightweight, crushable concrete blocks constructed at the ends of the runways that are designed to entrap an aircraft that has overrun the runway with little or no damage to the aircraft, and most importantly, no major injuries to passengers, crew, or bystanders."


I suspect that if all goes well with Frontier - and if the Nimbys don't kick up too much of a stink - they might lengthen the runway by 300 or 400 feet (or the length of the EMAS) as another "safety feature."

But thaty could be wishful thinking on my part.

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GentFromAlaska
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RE: New Frontier #40

Tue Jan 08, 2013 4:27 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 47):
We are improving the airport, not expanding it.

I think the above was more my thought process. I read about TTN 13 Million EMAS (safety zone extension) upgrade but also tied in that any residual funding would be earmarked toward terminal improvements; but maybe not.

JNU received a federal earmark for a EMAS upgrade mid 20XX decade which the FAA estimated would cost 14 million. When all was said and done I want to say it came in at 10 million and that was working through a tide-lands water fowl sanctuary/area. There was some extra fluff which to my understanding was reprogrammed to go toward airport improvements.
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RE: New Frontier #40

Tue Jan 08, 2013 5:58 am

I posted this in the other thread, but I should probably post it here. To give it some background, Robert Ashcorft is the Senior VP Finance at frontier. The other one - the one who wrote the piece about TTN - is Anthony Tangorra, more about him after the link.

It's a view of TTN, written when Frontier has just started service, a sort of "Why TTN?":

http://www.theairlinezone.com/2012/11/trenton-airport/

"“There are a handful of commercially certified airports that are not currently served around the United States that the major airlines have overlooked or avoided for various reasons. In some cases, these airports have large populations that would be willing to use them if there was adequate commercial service. Serving the populations around some of these airport opportunities should not necessarily be defined as serving-the-under-served; but as better-serving-the-inconvenienced. These inconvenienced population centers have adequate service within a +/- 60 minute driving distance, but would prefer a closer-in option for air travel if the service was offered."

It ends with:

"Frontier has not yet announced service sufficient to meet the three criteria described in the preceding paragraph, but the company has hinted in their press conferences that they may be on the way to doing so. If they do, then we should expect this to be a win-win for Frontier, the people surrounding TTN, and also a win perhaps for other markets like TTN that may see similar service after this experiment proves successful.”

Anthony Tangorrra is peripherally involved in airlines, or rather, airports. He has a company called Airspace Lounge, which opened at BWI a couple of years ago:

http://articles.baltimoresun.com/201...408_1_concourse-lounge-concept-bwi

"Promising to redefine the airport experience for the flying public, Airspace Lounge is opening its doors in May at Baltimore-Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport.

Located at BWI's Concourse D, Airspace Lounge will provide customers a place to relax and work near their gate. For a day pass starting at $17.50 and topping out at $40 — the price rises as the lounge fills up — the facility will offer passengers with tickets on any airline the opportunity to enjoy a comfortable facility with complimentary food, coffee, soft drinks, wireless Internet, computers and access to a cash bar.


I've no idea how well it's doing and I don't expect such a lounge at TTN. I very much doubt there is enough traffic.

mariner
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