mffoda
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Airbus 2012 O&D Speculation?

Thu Jan 03, 2013 7:56 pm

I want to keep this thread separate from the combined A&B O&D one, as we won't know the real numbers till the 17th.

Anyway, I just saw this on the web: "Airbus seen posting 900 orders, 580 deliveries for 2012"

And I started to wonder who the orders might be from?

http://news.yahoo.com/airbus-seen-po...eries-2012-175829044--finance.html

Some of the article below....

Quoting:

"But industry sources have said Airbus internally mounted a concerted effort to keep a market share of 40 percent, considered the lowest sustainable share in a duopoly such as the one it enjoys with Boeing, and is confident of reaching this.
Airbus declined to comment ahead of an annual presentation in Toulouse on January 17.

Boeing earlier reported 1,339 plane orders in 2012, its best result since 2007.

Airbus would need to have sold around 900 aircraft in 2012 to reach its market share goal, suggesting as yet unreported orders for some 180 aircraft.

The figure tallies with market indications of brisk activity in December, though this was not enough to close the gap between Airbus and its U.S. rival for the year as a whole.

Airbus had sold 646 planes by the end of November and reported a further 75 during December, though the rest of that month's tally has not yet been published."



We know Airbus recorded AirAsia(100), Pegasus(75) and Gilf Air(10) in the 646 + 75 numbers above. Its the 180 additional aircraft that are a bit of a mystery... Any thoughts?

I also saw this regarding the AA order...

"Airbus sweetens airplane deal with American Airlines (but we’re not sure how much)"

http://aviationblog.dallasnews.com/2...s-but-were-not-sure-how-much.html/

So I wonder if AA might be taking additional aircraft?  

[Edited 2013-01-03 12:25:20]
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AirlineCritic
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RE: Airbus 2012 O&D Speculation?

Thu Jan 03, 2013 8:32 pm

40% may be the right number, but I doubt Airbus is just looking at 2012. It was a special year, right after a very good previous year for Airbus.
 
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scbriml
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RE: Airbus 2012 O&D Speculation?

Thu Jan 03, 2013 8:34 pm

Well, it will be pretty amazing if they do manage to book 900 gross orders after last year's order-fest.

It is possible that AA has firmed their neo order, which would account for a significant proportion of the 180 "missing orders".
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KarelXWB
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RE: Airbus 2012 O&D Speculation?

Thu Jan 03, 2013 8:38 pm

Perhaps SQ firmed their 20x A350 and 5x A380 order.
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chiad
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RE: Airbus 2012 O&D Speculation?

Thu Jan 03, 2013 9:30 pm

 
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KarelXWB
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RE: Airbus 2012 O&D Speculation?

Thu Jan 03, 2013 9:36 pm

Quoting Chiad (Reply 4):
CIT has at least ordered 10 A350-900s.

But that looks like a 2013 order.
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EPA001
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RE: Airbus 2012 O&D Speculation?

Thu Jan 03, 2013 9:52 pm

Quoting Chiad (Reply 4):

CIT has at least ordered 10 A350-900s.

That by itself is very good news.

I guess the official press release about the numbers of 2012 will tell us all how good 2012 actually has been for Airbus.  
 
chiad
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RE: Airbus 2012 O&D Speculation?

Thu Jan 03, 2013 9:58 pm

Quoting mffoda (Thread starter):
Boeing earlier reported 1,339 plane orders in 2012, its best result since 2007.

Net orders are 1203.

Quoting AirlineCritic (Reply 1):
40% may be the right number, but I doubt Airbus is just looking at 2012. It was a special year, right after a very good previous year for Airbus.

I totally agree.
In 2011 we Airbus had net sales of 1419 vs Boeing's 805 (63.8%)
And for a 10 years period (2002 - 2011) the score is remarkable close: Airbus 7181 vs Boeing's 6360 (53%).

On the delivery side the race is even more close.
Airbus 4218 vs Boeing 3871 (52%).

The thing IMHO that separates these two manufactures the most is Airbus steady climb in output vs Boeing's rather erratic up and downs.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...boeing_deliverycomparison_2011.png
 
mffoda
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RE: Airbus 2012 O&D Speculation?

Thu Jan 03, 2013 10:34 pm

Quoting Chiad (Reply 7):
Quoting mffoda (Thread starter):
Boeing earlier reported 1,339 plane orders in 2012, its best result since 2007.

Net orders are 1203.

That is from the article and how they explained the 40% ratio. btw, the 900 number for Airbus they are using is also Gross orders. We will have to wait for the real numbers a bit longer...
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scbriml
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RE: Airbus 2012 O&D Speculation?

Thu Jan 03, 2013 10:52 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 5):
But that looks like a 2013 order.

While the press release is dated 2013, I'd be willing to bet that deal was finalised in 2012.
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mffoda
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RE: Airbus 2012 O&D Speculation?

Thu Jan 03, 2013 11:37 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 9):
While the press release is dated 2013, I'd be willing to bet that deal was finalised in 2012.

I agree, 2012 order...

I think the A380 order we keep hearing about will also show up in 2012.

Quoting Chiad (Reply 7):
The thing IMHO that separates these two manufactures the most is Airbus steady climb in output vs Boeing's rather erratic up and downs.

While you look at that as a net positive, others have argued that it has cost Airbus in the form of lower profit margins and lower lease values for their products. The old European jobs program vs. the cruel U.S. corporate profit mongers... But that is for another thread.

[Edited 2013-01-03 15:44:18]

[Edited 2013-01-03 15:45:17]
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prebennorholm
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RE: Airbus 2012 O&D Speculation?

Fri Jan 04, 2013 4:16 am

Quoting Chiad (Reply 7):
The thing IMHO that separates these two manufactures the most is Airbus steady climb in output vs Boeing's rather erratic up and downs.

Looking at Boeing's ups and downs during the last decade they are explained by two facts:

1. the almost two months long strike in September/October 2008.

2. the delivery in 2012 of the bulk of 787s produced in 2008 though 2011, and stored for rework.

The latter boosted deliveries in 2012 to record high 601 planes. Which may be exceeded this year, but that will be due to substantial production revamp.

Without those two bumps also Boeing would have had a rather steady climb, slightly trailing Airbus in numbers, but likely ahead of Airbus in revenue due to a higher share of wide body planes.

If we look at actual production numbers, then we have B with 601 and A with 580 (+/-) deliveries. That has to be compensated for the decreased number of stored 787s needing rework over the year 2012. That will make number of planes out of the factory door almost equal, maybe with a dozen planes in the lead to A.

If things go as planned, then increased 787 production is likely to take B in the lead in 2013. Also because the A380 wing issue means that 2013 A380 output is planned to decrease slightly. And the A32x and A330 lines are running at full steam with no substantial capacity increase planned for this year.

But who knows? A major strike at either A or B may turn everything upside down.
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f4f3a
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RE: Airbus 2012 O&D Speculation?

Fri Jan 04, 2013 6:11 pm

Big easyjet order to be announced soon. Could tie in with 2012 results on 17 jan . Maybe even some a321?
 
racercoup
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RE: Airbus 2012 O&D Speculation?

Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:11 am

Quoting Chiad (Reply 7):
I totally agree.
In 2011 we Airbus had net sales of 1419 vs Boeing's 805 (63.8%)
And for a 10 years period (2002 - 2011) the score is remarkable close: Airbus 7181 vs Boeing's 6360 (53%).

Using information available from both manufacturers sites I come up with an even closer score. Boeing 6,284 (47.8%), Airbus 6,847 (52.2). If you use the 10 year span of 2003 - 2012, it becomes even closer with a possible swing to Boeing.
 
chiad
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RE: Airbus 2012 O&D Speculation?

Sat Jan 05, 2013 8:19 am

Quoting racercoup (Reply 13):
Boeing 6,284 (47.8%), Airbus 6,847 (52.2)

Ai ... those numbers were indeed different.
Where did you find Airbus' numbers?
 
racercoup
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RE: Airbus 2012 O&D Speculation?

Sat Jan 05, 2013 3:58 pm

Quoting Chiad (Reply 14):
Ai ... those numbers were indeed different.
Where did you find Airbus' numbers?

There is a spreadsheet available on the Airbus web site titled " Summary Results 1989 - 2012", use the cumulative net orders row and do the math.
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: Airbus 2012 O&D Speculation?

Sat Jan 05, 2013 4:30 pm

Quoting Chiad (Reply 7):
The thing IMHO that separates these two manufactures the most is Airbus steady climb in output vs Boeing's rather erratic up and downs.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...1.png

Boeing was also effected more by the downturn after the 9/11 terrorist attacks than Airbus was, because they had more orders than Airbus in the 1998-2001 time frame.