wnflyguy
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WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Sun Jan 13, 2013 2:15 pm

Well it's almost time for WN/FL to release the next schedule extensions.
Will they convert more cites over to WN?
Will FL get new international flying feeding the new WN code share network?
Predictions?
My predictions or what I would like to see are:
DCA flights being reshuffled with MKE and ATL seeing service scaled back making use of slots for MDW flts.
RIC,PNS,GRR,DAY now with a code share in place seeing a reshuffling of FL flying to connect these cites with WN hubs like MDW,DEN,STL and HOU.
New WN ATL market like ATL-ISP,ATL-MHT,ATL-SNA(one can dream).
New weekend only non stop flying to SJU flying to feed holiday ship passengers.
FINALLY A CODE SHARE               
wnfg 
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
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jfklganyc
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Sun Jan 13, 2013 2:26 pm

Quoting wnflyguy (Thread starter):
FINALLY A CODE SHARE

That is really all that matters at this point. Everything else is just icing on the cake
 
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chrisnh
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Sun Jan 13, 2013 2:26 pm

Of course there's a whole list of routes that WN should fly, but you touched on one of them: MHT-ATL. DL has this to themselves, and they do nothing with it. A single ill-timed RJ for a 952-mile run right now. Sure, one or 2 MD-88s in peak season, but business travelers don't even HAVE a 'peak season.'

So, I would love to see WN go 2x daily MHT-ATL...even if they sacrificed one or two existing BWI runs to do it.
 
Bobloblaw
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Sun Jan 13, 2013 3:16 pm

Quoting wnflyguy (Thread starter):

An awful lot there. I doubt we ever see ATL-MHT. PNS-HOU is a no brainer at some point.
 
MesaFlyGuy
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Sun Jan 13, 2013 3:26 pm

Quoting wnflyguy (Thread starter):

We can dream about WN ATL-ISP, but I doubt it. Maybe further down the line though.
The views I express are my own and do not reflect the views and opinions of my company.
 
wnflyguy
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Sun Jan 13, 2013 4:50 pm

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 1):

Agreed!!
When it comes to this merger It's made me scratch my head so much it hurts.
When you look at the history of WN growth or use the Morris Air merger as example how they would handle this merger.
It almost seems like they took the OLD play book and threw it out the door.
Which may have been a good plan or may not have been a good plan only time will tell.
I hope for the future of every WN employee 2013-2014 brings out a lot of new ROIC finally with this merger.
I still think buying FL was 110% better than F9 would have ever been.
I understand and get the long term goals of shipping off the 717. But being a kid from LGB and of both parents that made the MD95. I was really hoping She would wear WN paint.
sorry for the side track back to predictions..
I hope this next schedule update comes with a Code share and brings things together finally.
This schedule should see something like 3 or 6 FL717 lines be replaced with WN metal.
I'm thinking most of the first Lines will be BWI, MKE and MCO related.
But if the code share plays out then anything is possible.
wnfg 
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
Flytravel
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Sun Jan 13, 2013 4:52 pm

So WN will at some point launch GRR-DEN, prompting F9 to pull out of the route. F9 might as well end service the day WN starts it, rather than the compete for a short while, similar to CAK and DAY from DEN. F9 would just plan a new TTN route.

I could see WN having GRR-BWI, MCO, DEN, HOU and TPA (seasonal).

[Edited 2013-01-13 09:10:54]
 
usflyguy
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Sun Jan 13, 2013 4:54 pm

ATL-SAN
HOU-SJU
MSY-CUN
MSY-MBJ
OAK-SJD
My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
 
jporterfi
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Sun Jan 13, 2013 8:07 pm

Quoting wnflyguy (Thread starter):
New WN ATL market like ATL-ISP,ATL-MHT,ATL-SNA(one can dream).

I doubt that ATL-SNA will be started. WN already offers single-plane service routed ATL-PHX-SNA, and I question if they have enough demand to fill a daily n/s on the route. That last point is also valid for ATL-ISP and ATL-MHT, though I know nothing about demand on those routes, so I'd be happy for someone to correct me.

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 7):
ATL-SAN

FL used to fly this route several years ago. With the codeshare coming online, I think there is a decent chance that WN will bring this back (using its own metal) because the ATL "focus city" provides plenty of connecting traffic.

Also, how likely is it that STL will be converted to WN-only service? I know that STL is a major operation for WN, and with only 2 destinations served by FL from it, I would think it would be a good candidate for conversion in the near future.
 
Bobloblaw
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Sun Jan 13, 2013 8:12 pm

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 6):
I could see WN having GRR-BWI, MCO, DEN, HOU and TPA (seasonal).

GRR is tough because it is so close to MDW and WN has shown that they dont want to fly markets with lots of thru or connect traffic, (Ie they dropped IND from MDW) there has to be a local market. That said, without STL or MDW, there is no way to get GRR pax around the midwest or midsouth ( I suppose you could go GRR-BWI-BNA/MSY/BHM etc).

GRR-BWI/MCO are obvious. DEN is likely, but not 100%. I think HOU is too thin (UA flies only one RJ to IAH). STL? If there is local traffic, Id say possibly.

Does WN want to be able to offer their entire network to pax when they open a new market? There are few markets where the answer to that is No, for instance DSM (can be done but circuitous) ditto FNT. I dont know WN's strategy WRT cities like DSM and GRR and FNT.
 
sdoyon
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Sun Jan 13, 2013 8:24 pm

I'd love to see DCA fully converted, but that's probably not going to happen. Also, sad to say, I highly doubt 4x MKE-DCA is going to be sticking around for much longer--is this now a WN monopoly route?

MHT-ATL would have been good on FL, but I fear that it'll never happen on WN. Why connect in ATL when BWI is closer and has (or probably would have) far more daily options?

I'm excited to see more SJU. I have a feeling WN, NK, and B6 are definitely going to pick up where AA has cut.
 
point2point
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Sun Jan 13, 2013 9:22 pm

Just gotta throw my    in here, eh?

I would think that converting the stations that have the least amount of current FL flights might make the most sense to convert in this next announcement. From info that I have (and it could be a bit dated, and I certainly don't claim this as exactly accurate at present, but still will get my idea across...) is that there are a number of stations with only routes to ATL on FL, and that these could get priority in this transition. So from my knowledge these stations include LAX, PHX, ICT, MCI, STL, MSY, PNS, JAX, MEM and RDU. These are stations that could simply change their FL metal to WM metal and be done in this transition to all WN flights. A few more stations have FL flights to both ATL and MCO, such as BUF, DTW, and RIC. They could go next.

MCO is a station that seems to be getting not so much attention here as ATL is. I do believe that they were the second largest station for FL...... and yet ATL is grabbing almost all of the spotlight. There's about 20 or so destination from there that will need attending to as well.......

Since I always like DEN expansion, there is a void here to the upper New York State area here. BUF and ALB could probably support enough O&D traffic year round to support nonstop flights here year around. ROC is strong here in the summer months. So will WN get a jump here on UA and F9?

Again, as always...... just my   ......

 
 
SANFan
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Sun Jan 13, 2013 10:51 pm

Quoting wnflyguy (Thread starter):
Well it's almost time for WN/FL to release the next schedule extensions.

Can you please include the effective dates for this next extension? It's this fall, I think...

bb
 
INFINITI329
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Sun Jan 13, 2013 11:18 pm

Quoting wnflyguy (Thread starter):
ATL-ISP

That definitely will not happen before LGA-ATL on WN metal....
 
Flytravel
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Mon Jan 14, 2013 12:01 am

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 9):
GRR is tough because it is so close to MDW and WN has shown that they dont want to fly markets with lots of thru or connect traffic, (Ie they dropped IND from MDW) there has to be a local market. That said, without STL or MDW, there is no way to get GRR pax around the midwest or midsouth ( I suppose you could go GRR-BWI-BNA/MSY/BHM etc).

GRR-BWI/MCO are obvious. DEN is likely, but not 100%. I think HOU is too thin (UA flies only one RJ to IAH). STL? If there is local traffic, Id say possibly.

When it dropped IND-MDW, gone was IND-MDW-MSP. Instead it offers IND-DEN-MSP which is awkward (974 miles, and then 679 miles) when a connection stop at MDW is 161 and 349 miles, and a natural nonstop is 502 miles. So if awkward is fine for a couple of routes from IND, it'd be done for smaller stations like GRR.

WN decided it wasn't worthwhile to have optimal connections to everywhere, but focus on specific routes and accessibility. As for GRR, HOU would help for midsouth coverage a bit, but it might be thin, but a 1x daily could be tested, maybe once WN can sell international flights from HOU. Along with it being a major market, HOU will be a gateway for that vacation stuff WN wants to sell.

Quoting jporterfi (Reply 8):
FL used to fly this route several years ago. With the codeshare coming online, I think there is a decent chance that WN will bring this back (using its own metal) because the ATL "focus city" provides plenty of connecting traffic.

It also helps that WN is the leading carrier at SAN, and San Diego is a destinational place, thus the ability to stimulate traffic. I think it's actually one of the lower hanging fruits and surprised WN didn't launch it, but instead went for ATL-ORF.
 
wnflyguy
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Mon Jan 14, 2013 12:42 am

Quoting SANFan (Reply 12):

With the 717 lines being replaced 3 at a time.
I think from here until 2015 you will see a lot of little schedule releases with 1 or 3 month extensions.
I could have this wrong but I think this is a extinction for SEP only.
This time around there really is no Rumor mill from inside WN.
I'm for once impressed no one's talking about anything when it comes to new flying.
Example AirTran MDW service to Punta Cana and Montego Bay never got leaked.
Which is rare for WN BUT good it keeps everything a surprise.
With Sept being a slow season I could see WN reshuffle some flying to ADD MEM,PNS,RIC and GRR into the WN network.
My predictions going off what they did with the size of the other FL conversions last round are.
MEM 2 HOU,2 MDW,1 BWI, 1 MCO.
PNS 2 HOU,2 STL ,1 BWI.
RIC 2 MDW,1 HOU,1 TPA,1 MCO.
GRR 2 BWI,2 STL,1 DEN.
wnfg


           
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
INFINITI329
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Mon Jan 14, 2013 1:04 am

Code-share is coming final kinks are being worked out
 
airliner371
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Mon Jan 14, 2013 1:23 am

The SWA schedule extension is through Sept 27 on Feb 4.

----

If testing went as planned in December (IDK) then this is the code share schedule:

soft rollout, January,
Phase 1 more full rollout in February,
Full rollout in March.

Quoting wnflyguy (Reply 15):
I think from here until 2015 you will see a lot of little schedule releases with 1 or 3 month extensions.

I agree, more extensions but with less length to them would make sense with 3 717s leaving each month.

Quoting wnflyguy (Reply 15):
My predictions going off what they did with the size of the other FL conversions last round are.

I think those are solid guesses, I have a feeling that RIC-ATL will be kept though, whether its at WN or FL is to be seen.

Quoting sdoyon (Reply 10):
I'd love to see DCA fully converted

For DCA, when all is said and done, I could see
5 ATL (FL)
5 MDW (WN)
1 MKE (WN or FL)
1 RSW, PBI or FLL depending on which they want to operate with that slot (FL)
2 STL (WN)
1 AUS (WN)
and 1 HOU if they get it (WN)

Quoting wnflyguy (Thread starter):
ATL-ISP,ATL-MHT,ATL-SNA

I think these are fair additions, I don't think we will see them all in one addition though. I do also expect to see SAN at some point.
 
nomorerjs
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Mon Jan 14, 2013 1:36 am

MEM: BWI, HOU, MDW
RIC: HOU, MDW
PNS: BWI, HOU, MDW
Wild card: GEG or BOI to MDW (why not?)
 
USAirALB
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Mon Jan 14, 2013 2:24 am

Quoting point2point (Reply 11):
Since I always like DEN expansion, there is a void here to the upper New York State area here. BUF and ALB could probably support enough O&D traffic year round to support nonstop flights here year around

I would love to see DEN-BUF/ALB, although I doubt it, especially in the case of ALB. However, BUF already has PHX and LAS service, and I believe they are the only medium sized city in the Northeast still with PHX service, as WN dropped MHT-PHX and PVD-PHX.

MHT has both DEN and LAS service, as does BDL. ALB only has LAS, and PVD only has DEN. I'm worried that if WN were to launch ALB-DEN, we might see LAS get cut back.

BUF-DEN has about 118 PDEW, while ALB-DEN has around 81 PDEW. ROC-DEN has 69 PDEW.
E135/E140/E145/E70/E75/E90/CR2/CR7/CR9/717/732/733/734/735/73G/738/739/752/753/762/772/77W/319/320/321/333/343
 
Flytravel
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Mon Jan 14, 2013 2:33 am

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 17):
For DCA, when all is said and done, I could see
5 ATL (FL)
5 MDW (WN)
1 MKE (WN or FL)
DCA will be interesting to watch. It might not want to cut MKE too much, as it's an exclusive route and necessary for preserving it's position at MKE. And adding DCA-MDW at 5x will make IAD-MDW have to shrink drastically. Maybe something like 5 ATL, 3 MDW, 3 MKE from DCA, and the other routes, and 3 MDW, 2 BNA, 2 DEN from IAD.

[Edited 2013-01-13 18:34:08]
 
Cubsrule
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Mon Jan 14, 2013 2:42 am

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 20):
Maybe something like 5 ATL, 3 MDW, 3 MKE from DCA, and the other routes, and 3 MDW, 2 BNA, 2 DEN from IAD.

IAD is a niche station. Why does it need BNA service?
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
Flytravel
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Mon Jan 14, 2013 3:03 am

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 21):
IAD is a niche station. Why does it need BNA service?

I don't think it's niche. Why does it need DEN?
 
airliner371
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Mon Jan 14, 2013 3:09 am

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 22):
I don't think it's niche. Why does it need DEN?

DEN and MDW offer connections. They do not want to serve IAD large so they offer 2 cities with many connections.
 
Cubsrule
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Mon Jan 14, 2013 3:19 am

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 22):
I don't think it's niche. Why does it need DEN?

How is it anything but niche? Is there any other station like it?
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
Flytravel
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Mon Jan 14, 2013 3:30 am

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 24):
How is it anything but niche? Is there any other station like it?

It's not niche like a leisure destination or some remote market. Small doesn't mean niche. WN at CLE is small too, and it has BNA service of all things.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 23):
DEN and MDW offer connections. They do not want to serve IAD large so they offer 2 cities with many connections.
BNA offers connections to all the other major east coast airports WN services except DCA, so IAD would be the closest alternative.

[Edited 2013-01-13 19:33:28]
 
Cubsrule
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Mon Jan 14, 2013 3:39 am

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 25):
It's not niche like a leisure destination or some remote market.

It's very much a "remote market" in the WN world because of its proximity to BWI. Thus, it supports only very limited service.

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 25):
WN at CLE is small too, and it has BNA service of all things.

CLE has more than twice as many flights as IAD.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
airliner371
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Mon Jan 14, 2013 3:42 am

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 25):
WN at CLE is small too, and it has BNA service of all things.

Well its not nearly as small and they have a different purpose in the WN network.

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 25):
BNA offers connections to all the other major east coast airports WN services except DCA, so IAD would be the closest alternative.

Why serve BNA when most if not all of those cities can be served from MDW. They don't want a big presence at IAD.
 
point2point
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Mon Jan 14, 2013 3:55 am

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 19):
BUF-DEN has about 118 PDEW, while ALB-DEN has around 81 PDEW. ROC-DEN has 69 PDEW.

I think that maybe these are slow season numbers..... and those numbers do just about double in the summer months...... which at that point is enough to fill the F9 planes......

 
 
QANTAS747-438
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Mon Jan 14, 2013 4:03 am

I will estimate that WN will announce new Caribbean routes on WN metal. Now that they're certified to fly to places like SJU, I can see them trying to do BWI-SJU or other Class II routes which will eventually lead to ETOPS flying.

Also, maybe WN schedules to MEM and PNS.
My posts/replies are strictly my opinion and not that of any company, organization, or Southwest Airlines.
 
Flytravel
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Mon Jan 14, 2013 4:30 am

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 27):
Why serve BNA when most if not all of those cities can be served from MDW.
WN is strong at BNA and has been linking BNA to most major business markets, including service to both NY airports (LGA and EWR) from BNA. This is why I mentioned it possible. Connections you brought up, but it'd have connections via BNA, better to Texas and south than MDW.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 27):
They don't want a big presence at IAD.

Yup, and I didn't indicate anything like a big presence at IAD. No thanks for making it seem like I was discussing that.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 26):
It's very much a "remote market" in the WN world because of its proximity to BWI. Thus, it supports only very limited service.
DCA has closer proximity to BWI but DCA is niche because of slot dependency. Yes, IAD supports limited service currently but it's ancillary to DCA more than BWI now with WN/FL in DCA. IAD and DCA are closer together in Washington MSA than BWI (in Baltimore-Towson MSA) to any of the two.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 26):
CLE has more than twice as many flights as IAD.

This Tuesday, CLE has 6x MDW, 3x BWI and 3x BNA. IAD has 5x MDW and 2x DEN. I count 12 departures vs. 7 departures. Am I missing some besides some seasonal flying that isn't available now? It still seems in the small category.

[Edited 2013-01-13 20:44:55]
 
airliner371
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Mon Jan 14, 2013 4:43 am

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 30):
better to Texas and south than MDW.

If the were to add a city south from IAD it would most likely be HOU anyway.

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 30):
It still seems in the small category.

They are in different categories.

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 30):
Yup, and I didn't indicate anything like a big presence at IAD.

They have had 7 flights for sometime now, there is no indication of that changing, they want BWI and DCA with IAD just there to support the Washington area passengers.

[Edited 2013-01-13 20:43:37]
 
Flytravel
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Mon Jan 14, 2013 5:02 am

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 31):
If the were to add a city south from IAD it would most likely be HOU anyway.

Maybe. But, United would still command a premium with the business pax flying into DCA. WN dropped HOU-PHL not BNA-PHL, but there were 3 carriers on HOU-PHL. It didn't launch BOS-HOU but it launched BOS-BNA. BNA is shorter distance than HOU from the east coast. DC is closer to HOU than BOS or PHL so it's maybe and WN could strengthen it's #2 place to the United dominance between DC and Houston.

MCO service restored is also a maybe, as one Florida flight, with connections to places like Key West and other limited destinations.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 31):
They have had 7 flights for sometime now, there is no indication of that changing,

My original post didn't indicate increase of service but possible re-allocating of service at IAD if DCA changes with MDW service.

[Edited 2013-01-13 21:04:57]
 
SANFan
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Mon Jan 14, 2013 5:16 am

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 17):
The SWA schedule extension is through Sept 27 on Feb 4.

Thank you for what I think is an important piece of information to the topic being discussed here.

bb
 
USAirALB
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Mon Jan 14, 2013 5:20 am

Quoting point2point (Reply 28):
I think that maybe these are slow season numbers..... and those numbers do just about double in the summer months...... which at that point is enough to fill the F9 planes......

Maybe, but F9 serves neither ALB or BUF.
E135/E140/E145/E70/E75/E90/CR2/CR7/CR9/717/732/733/734/735/73G/738/739/752/753/762/772/77W/319/320/321/333/343
 
point2point
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Mon Jan 14, 2013 6:25 am

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 34):
Maybe, but F9 serves neither ALB or BUF.

Oooops.... meant to write WN there since this is the subject of the thread..... but at any rate, having no service currently at any airport doesn't stop F9 from entering......eh?

 
 
dolphinflyer
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Mon Jan 14, 2013 2:19 pm

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 19):
I'm worried that if WN were to launch ALB-DEN, we might see LAS get cut back.

While I agree that (for ALB's sake) I'd hate to see ALB-LAS n/s service go away, I would argue that ALB-DEN would offer more bang for the buck, i.e. higher yields, more connections to destinations throughout the west, more of a business rather than leisure market, etc. Having said that, I hope that WN adds ALB-DEN rather than replacing ALB-LAS with ALB-DEN.

Also important to note that the O&D for DEN-PVD and DEN-MHT was lower than either DEN-BUF or DEN-ALB, but in those cases, WN essentially replaced nonstop service to PHX with DEN, i.e. gone were PVD-PHX and MHT-PHX in favor of PVD-DEN and MHT-DEN.

ALB-DEN and BUF-DEN on WN are definitely warranted.

[Edited 2013-01-14 06:21:02]
 
Mexicana757
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Mon Jan 14, 2013 6:03 pm

Well here are my predictions for MDW only.  

MDW-DCA 3X or 4x daily to complement the IAD services. Only UA and AA fly between DCA and Chicago.
MDW-SJU
MDW-MEM 2X
 
usflyguy
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Mon Jan 14, 2013 6:59 pm

Quoting Mexicana757 (Reply 37):
Only UA and AA fly between DCA and Chicago

Aren't they both hourly or pretty close to hourly?
My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
 
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ERJ170
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Mon Jan 14, 2013 7:16 pm

Here is my prediction for RDU...

??????

I honestly have no earthly clue.. would love some MSY and MCI but Lawd knows I don't know what is being thought.. if it is even being thought about.
Aiming High and going far..
 
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enilria
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Mon Jan 14, 2013 7:41 pm

Quoting wnflyguy (Thread starter):
Will they convert more cites over to WN?

YES. I think you will see more stations like PNS lose ATL service.

Quoting wnflyguy (Thread starter):
FINALLY A CODE SHARE
Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 1):
That is really all that matters at this point. Everything else is just icing on the cake

I can say with fair certainty that scheduling still does not trust the code share timing, so I would not expect to see any ATL routes cut from FL to WN. That coupled with my prior comment means more shrinking in ATL.

Quoting wnflyguy (Thread starter):
Will FL get new international flying feeding the new WN code share network?

Probably, but I think we have seen that they really don't announce those in the schedule roll out partially because of the time to ask for govt approval.

Quoting wnflyguy (Thread starter):
DCA flights being reshuffled with MKE and ATL seeing service scaled back making use of slots for MDW flts.

I think that is inevitable. It is possible they have not done it because they want to cry to somebody about how they can't fly to MDW and hope to get slots for free.

Quoting wnflyguy (Thread starter):
New WN ATL market like ATL-ISP,ATL-MHT,ATL-SNA(one can dream).

Not going to happen. I doubt you'll see any new ATL. I think you will see FL continue to be weened down to ATL and a growing number of point to point Florida routes. This is also the Fall schedule change so you are going to see a lot of seasonal pull-downs. I bet there will be a ton of them.

Quoting wnflyguy (Reply 5):
I still think buying FL was 110% better than F9 would have ever been.

I disagree in most respects.
1) FINANCIAL: I think eliminating F9 would have greatly benefited the profitability of WN because a competitor would be eliminated in a very overcapacity market. One can argue that the merger with FL has reduced WN profitability.
2) SYSTEMS (code share): F9 is on Sabre. Should have been easier, but not E-Z.
3) LABOR: I think that while F9 would have taken a good number of F9 employees, it would not be merger of equals (almost) like the FL deal so my guess is that would make it easier as F9 unions would have very little to bargain with.
4) FLEET: About the same. Airbus parked. 717s parked. F9's fleet was much smaller, so easier.

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 6):
So WN will at some point launch GRR-DEN, prompting F9 to pull out of the route.

UA just went back to 2x. You can pick any route and say "I can imagine F9 pulling that route".

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 9):
GRR is tough because it is so close to MDW and WN has shown that they dont want to fly markets

Same with FNT essentially. I get the feeling that for political reasons they couldn't close some of these clearly borderline stations like DSM, GRR, FNT, etc.

Quoting sdoyon (Reply 10):
I'd love to see DCA fully converted, but that's probably not going to happen.

Nope. DCA-ATL surely continues and they won't convert it until the code share is fully working.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 17):
The SWA schedule extension is through Sept 27 on Feb 4.

Yes, lots of hacking the Florida schedule.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 17):
soft rollout, January,

Really soft. It's the 14th and not a peep. My guess is this thing continues to go the way it has been going. Delays and disasters.

Quoting nomorerjs (Reply 18):

MEM: BWI, HOU, MDW
RIC: HOU, MDW
PNS: BWI, HOU, MDW
Wild card: GEG or BOI to MDW (why not?)

MEM would seem to make sense, BUT I get the impression that WN is playing really nice with DL right now. Might be 717 related. Not sure. I think MEM is going to be put off.

Quoting QANTAS747-438 (Reply 29):
I will estimate that WN will announce new Caribbean routes on WN metal.

Not on WN metal. I don't think the WN systems can handle that. Gonna be a while.
 
Bobloblaw
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Mon Jan 14, 2013 7:50 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 40):
YES. I think you will see more stations like PNS lose ATL service.

Unfortunately yes. Clark Howard who was so excited about WN, will end up disappointed in what WN does to ATL in the end.
 
ouboy79
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Mon Jan 14, 2013 8:23 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 40):
YES. I think you will see more stations like PNS lose ATL service.

Any market that doesn't have substantial high yield O&D will get cut. That is a no brainer.

Quoting enilria (Reply 40):
I disagree in most respects.
1) FINANCIAL: I think eliminating F9 would have greatly benefited the profitability of WN because a competitor would be eliminated in a very overcapacity market. One can argue that the merger with FL has reduced WN profitability.

You could argue the same with F9 pulling profitability down. In fact you could interchange FL and F9 for your entire argument. FL was holding down the eastern US pretty well, only one direction to grow. West.

Quoting enilria (Reply 40):
2) SYSTEMS (code share): F9 is on Sabre. Should have been easier, but not E-Z.

Why? The existing WN res system has been altered significantly since the TZ code-share (who was on Sabre). Regardless its done and this will be a non-issue soon.

Quoting enilria (Reply 40):
3) LABOR: I think that while F9 would have taken a good number of F9 employees, it would not be merger of equals (almost) like the FL deal so my guess is that would make it easier as F9 unions would have very little to bargain with.

Eh, except for a few issues here and there, there haven't been anywhere near the bumps like UA/CO or US/HP.

Quoting enilria (Reply 40):
4) FLEET: About the same. Airbus parked. 717s parked. F9's fleet was much smaller, so easier.

Non-issue now since the 717 fleet has a home and WN is looking at a revenue neutral solution.

Quoting enilria (Reply 40):
Really soft. It's the 14th and not a peep. My guess is this thing continues to go the way it has been going. Delays and disasters.

I would think common sense would take over here. Once they get the changes made they obviously need to train everyone on how to handle it. It takes time. Kelly stated it would be Q1 2013 for the roll out. I'm not really seeing all these disasters you keep spouting. Perhaps it would be best if you stick to filling the galleys and making food and leave the airline operations part to those that actually know what they are doing.
 
Mexicana757
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Mon Jan 14, 2013 8:47 pm

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 38):
Aren't they both hourly or pretty close to hourly?

UA has hourly service, AA has about 8x daily between DCA-ORD.
 
iowaman
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Mon Jan 14, 2013 8:59 pm

Here's a master list for reference I have kept up in previous schedule releases. Everything in the route list has been announced. Please let me know if this needs any corrections:

FL only cities:

Domestic:
MEM
GRR
PNS
RIC

International:
AUA
BDA
NAS
CUN
MEX
SJD
MBJ
PUJ

New upcoming routes (WN operated unless noted):

MCI-MSP (starts February 14)
EYW-MSY (March 4)
EWR-AUS (March 9)
EWR-MSY (March 9)
EWR-BNA (March 9)
BKG-MDW (starts March 9, FL ends March 8)
BKG-DAL (starts March 9)
BKG-HOU (starts March 9, FL ends March 8)
BKG-MCO (Saturday only, starts March 9, FL ends March 8)
LGA-MKE (transferring from FL in March)
CMH-TPA (transferring from FL in March)
DEN-SJD (FL, March 10)
CLT-BWI, MDW, HOU, MCO (starts April 14, all FL routes from CLT end April 13)
ROC-BWI, MDW, MCO, TPA (starts April 14, all FL routes from ROC end April 13)
FNT-BWI, MCO, TPA (starts April 14, all FL routes from FNT end April 13)
TPA-SJU (starts April 14)
MCO-SJU (starts April 14)
PWM-BWI (starts April 14, FL ends April 13)
BOS-MCI (starts April 14)
HOU-PIT (starts April 14)
BWI-PUJ ( starts April 14 on FL equipment, pending government approval)
MDW-MBJ (starts April 14 on FL equipment, pending government approval)
MDW-PUJ (starts May 19 on FL equipment, pending government approval)
BWI-SJU (starts June 2, FL ends June 1)
LGA-HOU (starts June 2)
MDW-TUL (starts June 2)
ICT-DAL (starts June 2)
ICT-MDW (starts June 2)
ICT-LAS (starts June 2)

Additional frequencies to note effective June 2:

SNA-SJD (FL going from 1x daily to 2x daily)
BWI-BDA (FL going from 4x weekly in May to daily in June)
MCO-SJU (WN going from 3x to 4x daily)

Seasonal returns announced for Spring/Summer (all WN equipment):

Spring:
SEA-BWI
CLE-LAS
MCI-OAK
SAN-STL
STL-ECP
OKC-MCO (runs daily for about two months)

June starts:
SEA-ATL
SEA-BNA
SEA-HOU
SEA-MCI
AUS-PDX
LAS-MHT

Seasonal cuts announced for next Spring/Summer:

Spring:
RSW-BNA
RSW-BOS
RSW-ISP
MCO-DAY
MCO-IND
PBI-PIT
PBI-PVD
TPA-GRR (FL)
RSW-DTW (FL)
RSW-FNT (FL)
RSW-GRR (FL)
RSW-CAK (FL)

Summer:
RSW-BDL (June 2)
TPA-ORF (June 2)
RSW-PVD (June 2)

Routes to be cut permanently:

EWR-BWI (ends March 8)
BKG-ATL (FL ends March 8)
BKG-BWI (FL ends March 8)
BOI-PDX (ends April 13)
BUR-DEN (ends April 13)
HOU-PHL (ends April 13)
ATL-FNT (FL ends April 13)
ATL-CLT (FL ends April 13)
ATL-ROC (FL ends April 13)

June 2 cuts:
ABQ-TUS
OAK-RNO
LIT-STL
BHM-JAX
BHM-MSY
ATL-ICT (FL ends June 1)

New FL flights to supplement WN flights:

Spring:
MCO-STL
MCO-MCI
BUF-TPA
MDW-FLL
MCO-MSY (March 4)

FL only routes that will again fly in the Spring:
BUF-FLL
MCO-MSP (transitioned to WN on Nov. 4 then goes back to FL)
PHL-PBI
PHL-RSW


Shifting from WN to FL seasonally (June 2):
FLL-RDU
FLL-MKE

Seasonal FL supplements to WN flights:

Spring:
BOS-MKE
TPA-MDW
TPA-CMH
RDU-MCO (not sure if this is permanent)
RDU-TPA (not sure if this is permanent)
RDU-FLL (not sure if this is permanent)

Summer (June 2):
TPA-HOU
TPA-RDU

Shortest currently flown WN routes in miles:

AUS-HOU 148
BWI-ORF 159
DAL-OKC 181
CRP-HOU 187
AUS-DAL 189
HOU-SAT 192
FLL-TPA 197
Quoting wnflyguy (Reply 15):
My predictions going off what they did with the size of the other FL conversions last round are.
MEM 2 HOU,2 MDW,1 BWI, 1 MCO.
PNS 2 HOU,2 STL ,1 BWI.
RIC 2 MDW,1 HOU,1 TPA,1 MCO.
GRR 2 BWI,2 STL,1 DEN.
wnfg
Quoting infiniti329 (Reply 16):
Code-share is coming final kinks are being worked out

That would be huge.

Quoting nomorerjs (Reply 18):
MEM: BWI, HOU, MDW
RIC: HOU, MDW
PNS: BWI, HOU, MDW
Wild card: GEG or BOI to MDW (why not?)

I'm guessing MEM and RIC may get an MCO and or TPA but who knows. I like your idea of GEG and BOI-MDW but unfortunately neither one has been getting any WN "luv" lately.

Quoting enilria (Reply 40):

Quoting wnflyguy (Thread starter):New WN ATL market like ATL-ISP,ATL-MHT,ATL-SNA(one can dream).
Not going to happen. I doubt you'll see any new ATL.
ISP can't even maintain MDW service to I doubt we will ever see ATL-ISP either. ATL-MHT probably isn't worth bothering with. ATL-SNA I doubt as well.

Quoting dolphinflyer (Reply 36):
ALB-DEN and BUF-DEN on WN are definitely warranted.

Seems reasonable - and as you said LAS/PHX may be cut from ALB/BUF if DEN was added.

[Edited 2013-01-14 17:05:33]


[Edited 2013-01-15 10:47:54]
 
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enilria
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Mon Jan 14, 2013 9:19 pm

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 41):
Unfortunately yes. Clark Howard who was so excited about WN, will end up disappointed in what WN does to ATL in the end.

That freight train is already gaining a lot of speed.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 42):
Any market that doesn't have substantial high yield O&D will get cut. That is a no brainer.

So, pretty much everything is getting cut? Few have enough local O&D for 12 DL flights plus WN.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 42):
You could argue the same with F9 pulling profitability down. In fact you could interchange FL and F9 for your entire argument. FL was holding down the eastern US pretty well, only one direction to grow. West.

That makes no sense. FL and WN had hardly any head to head overlap. WN overlapped nearly every F9 route at that point. I'm surprised you don't know the networks better than that.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 42):
Quoting enilria (Reply 40):
2) SYSTEMS (code share): F9 is on Sabre. Should have been easier, but not E-Z.

Why? The existing WN res system has been altered significantly since the TZ code-share (who was on Sabre). Regardless its done and this will be a non-issue soon.

It's not only about the WN system. The reason they are going toward Amadeus is because neither system is very good with code share. JetBlue left Open Skies/New Skies because of the code share issues, remember?

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 42):
Kelly stated it would be Q1 2013 for the roll out.

And we are 14 days in and there is not an official date even set for it.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 42):
I'm not really seeing all these disasters you keep spouting.

Have you seen the loads on ORF-ATL or SDF-ATL or all the other routes that expected code share. Go look and do this 
Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 42):
Perhaps it would be best if you stick to filling the galleys and making food

It's interesting that you assume everyone who works in the airline catering industry makes the food. If you work for an airline I guess I'd assume you drain excess grease from the baggage tug exhaust systems.
 
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ERJ170
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Mon Jan 14, 2013 9:20 pm

You forgot seasonal 2nd AND CURRENT: Denver - International (DEN / KDEN), USA - Colorado">DEN-RDU AND A 2nd permanent RSU-STL... And FL is doing RDU-MCO/FLL/TPA replacing 2/1/1 respectively...
Aiming High and going far..
 
airliner371
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Mon Jan 14, 2013 9:25 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 45):
not an official date even set for it.

And you know this how.... I can promise you there is a set date and we just don't know it.

Quoting enilria (Reply 45):
Have you seen the loads on ORF-ATL or SDF-ATL or all the other routes that expected code share. Go look

And those are with a very limited presence in ATL.

Quoting enilria (Reply 45):

I'm not even gonna get into the rest, the WN world is ending in your mind and it will turn out just like it did on 12/21/12.
 
Mexicana757
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Mon Jan 14, 2013 9:43 pm

Quoting iowaman (Reply 44):
MDW-PUJ (starts April 14 on FL equipment, pending government approval)

The MDW-PUJ start date is May 19.  
 
ouboy79
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RE: WN/FL February 4, 2013 Schedule Update Predictions

Mon Jan 14, 2013 10:42 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 45):
That makes no sense. FL and WN had hardly any head to head overlap. WN overlapped nearly every F9 route at that point. I'm surprised you don't know the networks better than that.

Yeah I guess the build up of operations at BWI, MKE, and MDW really meant nothing. How foolish of me. I should have known that FL would have stopped expanding those focus operations to keep from stepping on WN's toes.

Quoting enilria (Reply 45):
And we are 14 days in and there is not an official date even set for it.

Really? Interesting.

Quoting enilria (Reply 45):
It's interesting that you assume everyone who works in the airline catering industry makes the food. If you work for an airline I guess I'd assume you drain excess grease from the baggage tug exhaust systems.

LOL. That's cute.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 47):
And you know this how.... I can promise you there is a set date and we just don't know it.

Everything is in motion already to get it kicked off, we just don't know the release date - publicly - yet.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 47):
I'm not even gonna get into the rest, the WN world is ending in your mind and it will turn out just like it did on 12/21/12.

Indeed. Another WN thread, same responses to be expected. Ahh well, what can you do but just laugh at them.