|Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 33):|
That is important, one of the big issues with the Q400 is that its fuel consumption is too close to a jet.
Actually, the Q fuel consumption isn't that far from the ATR at 300kts...and at those speeds, it's not even close to what a jet burns. The high speed cruise of the Q-400 is 340kts but almost nobody flies those speeds regularly unless they want to maximize the number of flights in a day. Most airlines use the speed margin to make up lost time to remain on schedule.
OPEC, which will have control over a very significant portion of the global oil supply for decades to come, has stated in the recent past that they want to keep oil close to the 90 dollar per barrel mark as a basement. The US supply is growing but with the global demand at around 90 million bbl/day, the margin of overproduction by non OPEC countries will only be about a percentage point or two for the foreseeable future...a margin small enough to disappear if OPEC cuts production to maintain prices or a single supplier has production issues.
NYMEX forecast average is for oil to remain at about $100/bbl through 2014...with no significant downward pressure on price forecast after that.
As we have seen in the past, oil price forecasting is more voodoo than science and it takes very little to change the parameters, especially with the global demand withing a percentage or two of supply...and no signs of that changing.
That is why NEO's and MAX's are selling like hotcakes. There would be virtually no need for them, (or their higher price tags), if airlines thought oil would get below $50/bbl over the next decade...and airlines are very aware of oil prices and futures.
More efficient t-props have a very good chance of taking over the sub 100 seat arena in the next few years. The GTF
may have record bypass and efficiencies for a jet but it can never have the bypass ratio of a turboprop.