masseybrown
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What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Thu Jan 24, 2013 2:51 pm

So there's kinda ... sorta good news from UA - not that it's worth a press release or anything..

In the last couple of weeks UA has reloaded essentially all of last year's flights and frequencies for the 2013 summer schedule. This is a huge improvement over the current post-holiday schedule which reduced some spoke routes to two dailies. By summer most spokes will be back up to four dailies minimum, just a few with little O&D at two or three.

Better yet, perhaps, the Cal pilot bid package just put out keeps CLE above 200 737 CA/FO slots. It is reduced by about 10 slots from the previous bid but remains at a healthy level.

It would be nice to see some growth this summer, but, with the 787 giving the schedulers fits, I guess CLE should be happy with what we see so far.
 
masseybrown
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Thu Jan 24, 2013 7:42 pm

An interesting comment from today's earnings webcast, a comment I'm not sure management really wanted to make: the real reason for the extra-large schedule reduction post-Christmas and the very gradual add-backs was to improve performance reliability. They cut the system sked back to what they thought they could actually manage efficiently.
 
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Thu Jan 24, 2013 8:15 pm

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 1):
An interesting comment from today's earnings webcast, a comment I'm not sure management really wanted to make: the real reason for the extra-large schedule reduction post-Christmas and the very gradual add-backs was to improve performance reliability. They cut the system sked back to what they thought they could actually manage efficiently.

This past summer was way too much too soon. I think the workgroups are still exhausted from this recent "summer from hell".
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cle757
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Thu Jan 24, 2013 9:25 pm

They have been sending alot of CLE rampers to EWR lately for widebody training, not that this means anything but it's a good sign.
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masseybrown
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Fri Jan 25, 2013 5:00 pm

Quoting MasseyBrown (Thread starter):
Better yet, perhaps, the Cal pilot bid package just put out keeps CLE above 200 737 CA/FO slots. It is reduced by about 10 slots from the previous bid but remains at a healthy level.

Correction: no reduction in lines.
 
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mbm3
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Fri Jan 25, 2013 5:25 pm

Quoting cle757 (Reply 3):
They have been sending alot of CLE rampers to EWR lately for widebody training, not that this means anything but it's a good sign.

That is a good sign. Granted, it could be preparedness for diversions but perhaps 767 service to FRA is not as far away as we might think. Perhaps SFO - CLE - FRA? Though right now I would certainly love to see a seasonal HNL - CLE - FRA!!!
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masseybrown
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Fri Jan 25, 2013 6:37 pm

Quoting mbm3 (Reply 5):
That is a good sign. Granted, it could be preparedness for diversions but perhaps 767 service to FRA is not as far away as we might think.

Fingers crossed, but I'd bet the 787 grounding has the company holding any spare capacity in reserve for now. I bet they're looking for ways to hang onto the 762's that were slated to be retired. Maybe next year.
 
N766UA
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Fri Jan 25, 2013 9:09 pm

Quoting mbm3 (Reply 5):
Granted, it could be preparedness for diversions

That's absolutely what it is. CLE won't get widebodies, and it's simple to see why. When the hub was handling thousands of pax more a day in 2000/2001, it didn't get widebodies. When the hub had service to LHR and CDG, it didn't get widebodies. Why now, when it's at its smallest, when the economy is at its worst, would it get widebodies?
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mbm3
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Fri Jan 25, 2013 11:02 pm

Quoting N766UA (Reply 7):
That's absolutely what it is. CLE won't get widebodies, and it's simple to see why. When the hub was handling thousands of pax more a day in 2000/2001, it didn't get widebodies. When the hub had service to LHR and CDG, it didn't get widebodies. Why now, when it's at its smallest, when the economy is at its worst, would it get widebodies?

Because back in 2001 there were not any wide bodies available for CLE, CLE today still has good volume of business passenger and cargo traffic to Europe and the CLE station has one of the cheapest operating costs in the system.
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swacle
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Sat Jan 26, 2013 1:06 am

Quoting N766UA (Reply 7):
That's absolutely what it is. CLE won't get widebodies, and it's simple to see why. When the hub was handling thousands of pax more a day in 2000/2001, it didn't get widebodies. When the hub had service to LHR and CDG, it didn't get widebodies. Why now, when it's at its smallest, when the economy is at its worst, would it get widebodies?

To add to the above post, from what I understand UA trucks loads of cargo to other hubs to get it out. Without international flights, the return of domestic widebodys from United to ORD and/or EWR would kill two birds with one stone: supply a premium product for business travelers and allow a lot of that freight currently trucked to be loaded on flights.
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masseybrown
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Sat Jan 26, 2013 4:50 pm

Quoting N766UA (Reply 7):
Why now, when it's at its smallest, when the economy is at its worst, would it get widebodies?

I don't know about widebodies - their use domestically is becoming rarer and rarer; but 13 RJs plus a couple mainliners a day on CLE-ORD has to be inefficient. I could see more mainline to the biggest traffic points.
 
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Sat Jan 26, 2013 7:44 pm

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 10):
I don't know about widebodies - their use domestically is becoming rarer and rarer; but 13 RJs plus a couple mainliners a day on CLE-ORD has to be inefficient. I could see more mainline to the biggest traffic points.

CO will only add 16 CR7 size RJ's in 2013 (mostly in Q2) so there may be some change at least from the ERJ. Of course, some new 739ERs also. Hope some of those make it to that market...specifically took the 738 flight on TH for that reason.

I did see some E170's on IAH>CLE in July for the first time ever. I don't view that as a positive, still same # of flights (6).
 
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Sun Jan 27, 2013 2:32 pm

Quoting swacle (Reply 9):
To add to the above post, from what I understand UA trucks loads of cargo to other hubs to get it out.

And without customer demand, UA (and freight forwarders) will continue to do so. There has to be a need for more direct service. Some major shipper has to step up and say "I can no longer tolerate multiple transfer points." That shipper would have to be big enough to threaten to charter regular dedicated aircraft. So far, that hasn't happened and I don't know how likely it would be.

One shipper (mostly inbound) that is growing like a giant radioactive mushroom is Cleveland Heart Labs. Their operation is mostly domestic so far, but it has the potential to make a difference.
 
N766UA
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Sun Jan 27, 2013 4:02 pm

Quoting mbm3 (Reply 8):
Because back in 2001 there were not any wide bodies available for CLE, CLE today still has good volume of business passenger and cargo traffic to Europe and the CLE station has one of the cheapest operating costs in the system.

I see UA adding EXPRESS aircraft to hub routes that were previously 100% mainline, including EWR. How does anyone figure that when an airline is reducing capacity they would consider widebodies? I mean, seriously, we're taking a route that used to have 757's on it and doing it with Embraers now. How anyone could read that as "we're gunna get widebodies!" is beyond me.
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greenair727
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Sun Jan 27, 2013 5:01 pm

Quote:
Better yet, perhaps, the Cal pilot bid package just put out keeps CLE above 200 737 CA/FO slots. It is reduced by about 10 slots from the previous bid but remains at a healthy level.

Massey (or others)--what does "CA/FO" slots mean?

Any update on the new FIS? Could that be a partial consideration point in LH's or UA's plans?
 
masseybrown
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Sun Jan 27, 2013 7:38 pm

Quoting greenair727 (Reply 14):
Massey (or others)--what does "CA/FO" slots mean?

In old fashioned terms: pilot and co-pilot,
 
fun2fly
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Sun Jan 27, 2013 8:31 pm

Anyone have any ideas on the # of pax UA will put throught CLE vs. 2012 w/this schedule? It is good to see the same # of flights for CLE despite challenging economic conditions + UA decreasing domestic capacity in 2013. Looks like a survival year w/o a lot of changes overall.

Others seem to be on the upswing in Northeast Ohio DL is upgauging (ATL) and adding routes (LGA), additional capacity on CAK>ATL, and will more than likely upgauge CLE>MSP when the 717's or CR9's come along. US has upgauged CLE>CLT to mostly 737/ER9.

It will be interesting to see if CLE airport system can manage a few upgrades in 2013. 30% of the long term parking lot is blocked off w/barrels so that needs to be addressed. I'd imagine if there were ever going to be a big splash (FIS or TATL service or ??) they'd coordinate that w/the Medical Mart/Convention Center launch in October. The Center should push some positive traffic to CLE in 2014.
 
cle757
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Sun Jan 27, 2013 8:32 pm

Quoting N766UA (Reply 13):
I see UA adding EXPRESS aircraft to hub routes that were previously 100% mainline, including EWR. How does anyone figure that when an airline is reducing capacity they would consider widebodies? I mean, seriously, we're taking a route that used to have 757's on it and doing it with Embraers now. How anyone could read that as "we're gunna get widebodies!" is beyond me.

This is happening at all the hubs now, not just CLE!
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highflier92660
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Sun Jan 27, 2013 8:40 pm

There seems to be a a segment of Cleveland air travelers who have come to believe the lack of widebody service to CLE is a deliberate airline conspiracy, hence a broadside to their civic ego. Certainly if more seats and ASMs were to enter the CLE to west coast markets, it would benefit passengers by helping drive down airfares. Unfortunately, United is as sophisticated as the rest in downsizing equipment on any given route to maximize yields (and maximize passenger discomfort.) Today sitting in a 767-300 coach class seat doing .80 Mach isn't apprecialbly different than sitting in a 737-800 coach class seat doing .78 Mach.
 
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Mon Jan 28, 2013 12:58 am

I gotta be honest, sometimes I wonder if CLE citizens would be better off without a hub. The fares are ridiculously outrageous here, I'm tired of driving to CAK or PIT to pay what I would consider to be a reasonable fare. Flying to Florida is downright ridiculous compared to PIT, $200 per person more expensive.

Having a United hub is like a hidden tax. Before the merger, it wasn't this bad. I'm sure UA knows what they're doing on pricing, so what if it went away. . . .
 
N766UA
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Mon Jan 28, 2013 1:15 am

Quoting ncflyer (Reply 19):
I gotta be honest, sometimes I wonder if CLE citizens would be better off without a hub. The fares are ridiculously outrageous here

I agree. Airfares to a lot of places (BOS, NYC, DC, etc) are regularly almost double what they were only a couple of years ago, and often times more than that. I'm all for the airline making money, but 900$ to LaGuardia?!

I wouldn't miss UA much. Their service is sub-par anymore, and I'm on an RJ most of the time anyway. I'm not paying 900$ to fly a freakin' RJ, so I wind up connecting or driving elsewhere. If UA going away meant more SWA, more mainline, and perhaps a JetBlue entrance, I'm down.
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greenair727
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Mon Jan 28, 2013 11:31 am

ncflyer and N766UA - GROWTH brings competition, competition brings lower prices. The road for growth in the city of cleveland is through a strong hub that will attract new businesses. After which passenger demand will be high enough for new carriers to compete on strong routes. Think long term. A short term gain to save a few pennies may end up costing you a lot more when you're back to one carrier on the route and the demand is lower, giving you not only higher prices but fewer frequencies as well. CLE would NOT be better off without the UA hub.
 
masseybrown
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Mon Jan 28, 2013 2:47 pm

If pricey tickets are on your money, you shop around. If it's on the client's money (the client you are billing $400 or more an hour), your client will pay the CLE premium and come out ahead. CLE being a big legal and financial/accounting city, their are lots of people billing clients for their services. The airlines know this and prices accordingly. Other corp. travelers get negotiated rates. The little guy gets taken to the cleaners, but doesn't he always?

If you really want a bargain and can plan ahead, you can get a decent fare out of CLE. Otherwise, the new oligopoly we call the airline industry is NOT going to give their product away the way they used to a few years ago.
 
LoneStarMike
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Mon Jan 28, 2013 4:10 pm

Quoting greenair727 (Reply 21):
ncflyer and N766UA - GROWTH brings competition, competition brings lower prices. The road for growth in the city of cleveland is through a strong hub that will attract new businesses.

Wasn't CLE still a pretty strong hub back in the mid to late 1990's? The passenger totals for CLE only go back to 1999, but in that year the passenger total was 13,020,285 compared to just over 9.2 million last year.

But if you look at the Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH MSA, it has been slowly shrinking for the past 15 years. The last year that Cleveland's metro population showed an increase from the previous year was 1996.

source

If a strong hub that attracts new businesses is the key to growth for the Cleveland metro area, why wasn't it growing during the last half of the 1990's when CLE was a stronger hub?

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diesel33
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Mon Jan 28, 2013 4:26 pm

Quoting N766UA (Reply 13):
I see UA adding EXPRESS aircraft to hub routes that were previously 100% mainline, including EWR.

I thought all routes between (S-CO) hubs had to be all mainline? Is this changing with the new pilot contract?
 
jetmatt777
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Mon Jan 28, 2013 5:42 pm

Quoting Diesel33 (Reply 24):
I thought all routes between (S-CO) hubs had to be all mainline? Is this changing with the new pilot contract?

I think they are saying those are sUA flights, to get around the contract. Just like the 700's in IAH...those are "sUA" flights, so as to not infringe on the sCO scope....
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masseybrown
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Mon Jan 28, 2013 6:07 pm

Quoting LoneStarMike (Reply 23):
If a strong hub that attracts new businesses is the key to growth for the Cleveland metro area, why wasn't it growing during the last half of the 1990's when CLE was a stronger hub?

CLE was still a heavy basic industry manufacturing economy then. It has taken 40+ years to transition away from that. The big closures were in the 70's, 80's and 90's and it's taken that long for people to quit whining and start believing the old economy won't ever come back. Meanwhile the new economy (high-value-added manufacturing, biotech, medicine, insurance, IT, etc.) has only lately attained the "critical mass" to become self-propelling. In the 90's and early 00's, O&D was shrinking, undermining the hub.

Lately ('08-'12), the CLE economy has performed above the national average and most recently the area has begun seeing sustained growth in employment numbers as well as growing year-over-year O&D air traffic. Personally, I believe the area population has bottomed out and will soon begin growing modestly (if it hasn't already).

I sense that UA has the hub on a tight leash, ready to kill it if it falters or keep it so long as it's relatively profitable. I'm not sure what it would take to expand it at the moment.

It's also my theory that CLE diverts more traffic from DL in DTW than it does from UA in ORD, so there's another reason for UA to keep it: to annoy the folks in Atlanta.
 
ncflyer
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Tue Jan 29, 2013 1:06 am

Quoting greenair727 (Reply 21):

ncflyer and N766UA - GROWTH brings competition, competition brings lower prices. The road for growth in the city of cleveland is through a strong hub that will attract new businesses. After which passenger demand will be high enough for new carriers to compete on strong routes. Think long term. A short term gain to save a few pennies may end up costing you a lot more when you're back to one carrier on the route and the demand is lower, giving you not only higher prices but fewer frequencies as well. CLE would NOT be better off without the UA hub.

Greenair, how's that working out for RDU, AUS---- cities that are growing like absolute weeds without a hub, and that have plenty of airline competition, rather than fortresses. Or Detroit, a city that is shrinking like mad but with a fantastic hub. Hub has nothing to do with it, except to folks in the convention and visitor bureaus-- kind of like sports stadiums or overbuilt convention centers. By the way, a 25-40% fare differential, which is not uncommon between CLE and PIT no matter how far ahead one is planning, is not a few pennies to small business people. But hey United has some smart people, I guess they've figured it out if the hub is still plodding along. Hubs discourage competition no matter how big they are, they don't invite it.
 
N766UA
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Tue Jan 29, 2013 1:24 am

Quoting greenair727 (Reply 21):
GROWTH brings competition, competition brings lower prices.

No it doesn't. Look at PIT and CVG when they were fortresses. They had zero competition and some of the highest fares in the country. Now both are attracting gobs of low-fare carriers, SWA, Frontier, JetBlue, AirTran… that's where competition comes from! This idea that a huge hub begets competition is ridiculous!

United has shown zero commitment to CLE beyond the bare-bones minimum, and on top of that they're pulling down the worst on-time numbers of any major, they're shipping all their customer service overseas, and they're doing absolutely nothing to compensate for it. I don't want to see the hub go away, but I'm definitely more open minded lately. CO was a great airline for CLE, but UA ain't CO.
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LoneStarMike
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Tue Jan 29, 2013 3:38 am

Well, adding to the discussion here's a couple of ancient (by internet standards) articles that kind of back up the points that ncflyer and N766UA are trying to make.

Nashville Airport not mourning loss of hub
By BUSH BERNARD
The Tennessean
August 20, 2001


The gist of the above article was that Nashville's economy improved after AA closed their hub there in the mid 1990's

And then there's this article:

How a city can win by losing its airport hub status
BY MELANIE TROTTMAN
The Wall Street Journal
April 28, 2004


Quote:
Maybe losing an airport hub isn't so bad after all. Compare Nashville
and Cincinnati.

The average one-way domestic fare to fly out of Nashville International
Airport was $138, or about 16 cents per mile, in the second quarter of
last year, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation.

From Cincinnati, the average one-way fare was 71 percent higher at $236,
or 30 cents per mile.

The difference? Cincinnati is a hub, Nashville isn't.

(Keep in mind that second article was written nearly nine years ago, so the fare information has changed, but the points the article makes are still valid IMHO.

LoneStarMike
 
greenair727
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Tue Jan 29, 2013 6:09 am

Quoting LoneStarMike:
But if you look at the Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH MSA, it has been slowly shrinking for the past 15 years. The last year that Cleveland's metro population showed an increase from the previous year was 1996.

Metro CLE has been stable, not shrinking. The US Commerce Dept definition of Cleveland should not be used as it excludes key counties that surround Cleveland. For example, thousands of people have moved 5-10 miles south out of Cuyahoga county (Cleveland) across a county line into Medina and Summit Counties and likewise east into Geauga County. These people still work in Downtown CLE or in the metro region. The population of metro cleveland has been stable at around 3 million over the past few decades. It has lost its spot as one of the top 15 metro areas in the US, as other places grew or grew faster while CLE remained fairly constant.

Quoting ncflyer:
Greenair, how's that working out for RDU, AUS---- cities that are growing like absolute weeds without a hub, and that have plenty of airline competition, rather than fortresses. Or Detroit, a city that is shrinking like mad but with a fantastic hub. Hub has nothing to do with it, except to folks in the convention and visitor bureaus-- kind of like sports stadiums or overbuilt convention centers. By the way, a 25-40% fare differential, which is not uncommon between CLE and PIT no matter how far ahead one is planning, is not a few pennies to small business people. But hey United has some smart people, I guess they've figured it out if the hub is still plodding along. Hubs discourage competition no matter how big they are, they don't invite it.

ncflyer--all apples are fruits. but not all fruits are apples. A hub can bring growth. But you not all growth happens because of a hub. hundreds of places in the world are growing that aren't hubs. RDU and AUS are two of them. Factors other than whether or not a city is an airline hub are important for growth. a hub is one factor, but not a mandatory one. But a hub can help a city market itself and is a factor in business locations -- a hub will have better air service than a non-hub---both in terms of destinations offered and frequency of service to each destination. thus, more business, more air travel, more demand, and a second or 3rd carrier enters a route.

Quoting N776A:
No it doesn't. Look at PIT and CVG when they were fortresses. They had zero competition and some of the highest fares in the country. Now both are attracting gobs of low-fare carriers, SWA, Frontier, JetBlue, AirTran%u2026 that's where competition comes from! This idea that a huge hub begets competition is ridiculous!

I don't know much about PIT, but for CVG, I believe it was very heavily connecting traffic compared to O&D. CLE is a much bigger city in terms of O&D, and as such already has a bunch of other carriers there, carrying around 30% of the traffic. Take BOS for example. If there was a lot of CLE-BOS traffic, surely B6 or someone would step in to compete on the route. CLE-BOS will grow, but will take time. Look at CLE-CHI or CLE-NYC---there's plenty of competition on these routes.

LoneStarMike--regarding the articles posted--yes, once a formidable hub carrier leaves other carriers may step in, but if they're the sole carrier on the route, they could charge whatever they wanted, even if they are officially an LCC. I've priced LCC's around the country and they oftentimes not cheaper than majors when they are the sole carrier. In CLE, I have never found Southwest to be a better deal than CO.

Ultimately, the hub is critical for CLE's growth---after growth you'll see other airlines wanting a piece of the market, and the competition will be there, and prices will come down. At this time, though, CLE must continue to build on the momentum underway, as cited by MasseyBrown: "Lately ('08-'12), the CLE economy has performed above the national average and most recently the area has begun seeing sustained growth in employment numbers as well as growing year-over-year O&D air traffic."
 
LoneStarMike
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Tue Jan 29, 2013 10:03 am

Quoting greenair727 (Reply 30):
Metro CLE has been stable, not shrinking. The US Commerce Dept definition of Cleveland should not be used as it excludes key counties that surround Cleveland. For example, thousands of people have moved 5-10 miles south out of Cuyahoga county (Cleveland) across a county line into Medina and Summit Counties and likewise east into Geauga County. These people still work in Downtown CLE or in the metro region. The population of metro cleveland has been stable at around 3 million over the past few decades. It has lost its spot as one of the top 15 metro areas in the US, as other places grew or grew faster while CLE remained fairly constant.

OK, thank you greenair727. Basically, instead of looking at Cleveland's MSA population, I should have been looking at Cleveland's Combined Statistical Area (CSA) population.

Every major city has a Metropolitan Statistical Area population. For some cities (like Phoenix or San Antonio, that's the "official" population for their metro area. Other cities (like Cleveland) are also part of a larger Combined Statistical Area.

I guess for this thread (and others) where we try to quote population totals for a particular region, we should probably be using this list: Primary Statistical Areas It ranks all the major cities in order by using either their MSA population or their larger CSA population (if they're part of a larger Combined Statistical Area.)

And before I get yelled at   yes - I know it's a Wikipedia entry, but it's source is the U.S. Census Bureau and the ranking & population for Cleveland (19th largest and just under 2.9 million) pretty much matches what you have said, so I'm assuming the list is accurate.

Quoting greenair727 (Reply 30):
Factors other than whether or not a city is an airline hub are important for growth. a hub is one factor, but not a mandatory one.

I agree with you on this point. I can't speak for Cleveland or Raleigh, but here in Austin, I think most of the new business that we're attracting from other states come here not so much because of our cost of airfares or level of air service, but because Texas is considered a business-friendly state due to lower taxes. Other factors include median average home prices and cost of living.

LoneStarMike
 
N766UA
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Tue Jan 29, 2013 12:27 pm

Quoting greenair727 (Reply 30):
If there was a lot of CLE-BOS traffic, surely B6 or someone would step in to compete on the route.

There is a lot of CLE-BOS traffic, including MHT and PVD. The problem I see is that B6 comes in, UA price matches them or ups the number of flights, and B6 suffers. It's not worth their risk, in other words. Without a hub, B6 could absolutely make a killing on that route.

Quoting greenair727 (Reply 30):
Ultimately, the hub is critical for CLE's growth---after growth you'll see other airlines wanting a piece of the market, and the competition will be there, and prices will come down

Sorry, but that makes absolutely zero sense to me. A bigger hub means a bigger stranglehold on the market and higher fares, not other airlines clamoring to "get a piece of the action." Keep in mind that the majority of growth CLE will do as a hub will be due to connecting traffic, and connecting pax in that case only benefit the hub airline. An increase in hub size will do nothing to the local O&D market, and that's the market other airlines serve, that and the "UA can't get me there from here" market, which obviously goes away the more flights UA offers.
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greenair727
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Tue Jan 29, 2013 12:55 pm

Quoting N766UA:
There is a lot of CLE-BOS traffic, including MHT and PVD. The problem I see is that B6 comes in, UA price matches them or ups the number of flights, and B6 suffers. It's not worth their risk, in other words. Without a hub, B6 could absolutely make a killing on that route.

This doesn't really make sense. It means that if UA de-hubbed CLE, but still served CLE-BOS, B6 could be very profitable on the route, even though UA is present with the same number of seats/frequencies before B6 entry. It suggests UA would NOT try to lower their fare or increase flights to chase them out of the market. I think what you're saying is that airlines must be wary of incumbents on a given route. That makes sense. But incumbent carriers need not necessarily be the hub carrier at a given airport.

Quoting N766UA:
...A bigger hub means a bigger stranglehold on the market and higher fares, not other airlines clamoring to "get a piece of the action."

How do explain B6, WN, Frontier and others entering markets already served by hubs carriers at their hubs?

Quoting N766UA:
An increase in hub size will do nothing to the local O&D market...

I disagree. If there were suddenly new UA flights to FRA and HNL, there would be new O&D pax. These would be new trips, not ones that would have otherwise connected somewhere, thus the O&D market would be larger. Also, businesses looking to expand within the US or to open a US office may well set up shop where there is good service with a single airline with whom they could negotiate good corporate rates. The growth or entry of these businesses will increase O&D--both by business travel and personal travel of the employees and their families (that would otherwise be O&D in a different city).
 
masseybrown
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Tue Jan 29, 2013 5:28 pm

Quoting LoneStarMike (Reply 31):
Basically, instead of looking at Cleveland's MSA population, I should have been looking at Cleveland's Combined Statistical Area (CSA) population.

The CSA numbers used to describe almost perfectly the CLE traffic cachment. Since CAK has emerged as a significant player, it no longer does - at least not as perfectly. DOT now treats Cleveland as a two-airport point in many statistical compilations.

CLE's cachment has grown somewhat to the west with the decline of TOL service, since some eastern portions of Toledo's marketing area are closer to CLE than DTW. I don't believe, however, that the western growth balances out what CAK can now claim as its own turf.
 
michman
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Tue Jan 29, 2013 6:42 pm

Quoting ncflyer (Reply 27):
Or Detroit, a city that is shrinking like mad but with a fantastic hub.

If DTW just served the City of Detroit, the NW/DL hub would have closed long ago. It's about catchment area, not just the city the airport happens to be named after.
 
N766UA
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Tue Jan 29, 2013 8:09 pm

Quoting greenair727 (Reply 33):
How do explain B6, WN, Frontier and others entering markets already served by hubs carriers at their hubs?

Nobody's saying airlines don't start new flights at hubs, but that has no bearing on the discussion. The issue we're debating is whether or not a hub makes it more likely for a new carrier to enter a market, and while a hub does not preclude new airlines, it does discourage them. Look at any airport that's been de-hubbed and note the proliferation of new carriers!

Quoting greenair727 (Reply 33):
These would be new trips, not ones that would have otherwise connected somewhere, thus the O&D market would be larger.

Such routes would obviously bring new O&D for those routes, considering you can't have pax on a flight that doesn't exist, but not more generally. In other words, CLE-FRA would bring new pax who are heading to Germany, but CLE-FRA would not bring new pax who are heading to Seattle, pax that Alaska, for example, could then take advantage of.

It's just unrelated. Either the market's there or it isn't, a hub has little positive to do with anyone's traffic besides the hub carrier's. Obviously if UA adds flights, UA will add pax, but we're talking about competition here.
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fun2fly
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Wed Jan 30, 2013 8:47 pm

What is the construction in the offices behind the stores on Concourse B all about?
 
ncflyer
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Thu Jan 31, 2013 1:05 am

Does anyone know, why does UA fly so many small jets from ORD to CLE, rather than fewer large ones? Love the hourly service, but it just seems like an expensive way to go, especially for $200 r/t fares.
 
cle757
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Thu Jan 31, 2013 1:09 am

Quoting ncflyer (Reply 38):
Does anyone know, why does UA fly so many small jets from ORD to CLE, rather than fewer large ones? Love the hourly service, but it just seems like an expensive way to go, especially for $200 r/t fares.

And they are all full, alot have been upgraded to the CR7 but still more could be 737/A320s.
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fun2fly
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Thu Jan 31, 2013 6:32 pm

Quoting cle757 (Reply 39):
And they are all full, alot have been upgraded to the CR7 but still more could be 737/A320s.
Quoting ncflyer (Reply 38):
Does anyone know, why does UA fly so many small jets from ORD to CLE, rather than fewer large ones? Love the hourly service, but it just seems like an expensive way to go, especially for $200 r/t fares.


It's weird...w/1200 pax per day...either have10x A319/73G or 15x mix of a/c. I'd bet everyone would vote 10x A319/73G. Must not have the plane or it must be more expensive.

With more CR7's coming along, I would not expect a change!
 
greenair727
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Fri Feb 01, 2013 8:56 am

Quoting N776UA:
It's just unrelated. Either the market's there or it isn't, a hub has little positive to do with anyone's traffic besides the hub carrier's. Obviously if UA adds flights, UA will add pax, but we're talking about competition here.

My point was that the presence of the hub will help grow the local economy which in turn will grow demand. Of course, growing demand will benefit the hub carrier, but it will also would attract new entrants to serve new or currently UA-only routes. The thing we don't want to promote--which is how this discussion began--is something along the lines of that the city would be better off without the hub (which it clearly wouldn't be).
 
masseybrown
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Fri Feb 01, 2013 1:42 pm

Quoting greenair727 (Reply 41):
My point was that the presence of the hub will help grow the local economy which in turn will grow demand.

I think there is something to this point of view. ATL and CLT were hubs long before their supporting cities' economies were significant. You could probably add DEN to this list.
 
N766UA
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Fri Feb 01, 2013 8:06 pm

Quoting greenair727 (Reply 41):
My point was that the presence of the hub will help grow the local economy which in turn will grow demand

Ah I see, yeah, that would definitely be true.
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masseybrown
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Thu Feb 07, 2013 3:40 pm

There's interesting data in a Brookings study (cited by Pitrules in the current PIT thread) that applies to CLE.

http://www.brookings.edu/research/interactives/aviation

In 2011 CLE had 572,837 international passenger arrivals and departures, which broke down to 154,666 to Europe, 90.588 to Asia, and 30,933 to the Middle East and North Africa. By rule of thumb, these numbers would grow by about 20% if stimulated by non-stop service. The reason for this is 1) actual CLE O&D numbers are lost to connecting hubs by coding of the data and 2) the convenience of non-stop service will add new travelers.

So let's say, conservatively, a single CLE-Europe flight might boost the 154,666 by 10% counting only stimulation to the single point served and onward connections to 170,132 or 233 each way each day. A flight to a major European hub might therefore expect to draw half this number plus 20 (of forty) additional pax, a major piece of the MidEast/NoAfr traffic which is mostly Israel and Arab destinations, all well served from Europe. So the CLE market for a nonstop flight is 250 pax, more or less.

LHR would be the best destination, since demand for that city is higher than for CDG or FRA and LHR offers the largest number of connections minimizing backhaul. With a potential load of 250, an airline offering CLE-LHR might expect to draw half or, ignoring seasonality, 125 pax per flight. The numbers to other hubs might be lower (although CO got better loads to CDG than to LHR during the one year they tried it).

So with CLE numbers alone, 125 would produce an average year-round LF of:

AA182 pax 757 to LHR: 68.7%
AA 225 pax 767 to LHR: 55.5%
DL 174 pax 757 to CDG: 71.8%
DL 208 pax 767 to CDG: 60.1%
UA 214 pax 767 to FRA: 58.4%

These LF would probably be +20% in the summer and -20% in the winter. These loads do not count possible feed in CLE from other 'deprived' cities. Obviously, UA could most easily draw feed.

So it seems to me using Brookings data that some airline or other might be able to cobble together a profitable CLE TATL flight even if it was only seasonal.
 
fun2fly
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Thu Feb 07, 2013 4:17 pm

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 44):
So with CLE numbers alone, 125 would produce an average year-round LF of:

AA182 pax 757 to LHR: 68.7%
AA 225 pax 767 to LHR: 55.5%
DL 174 pax 757 to CDG: 71.8%
DL 208 pax 767 to CDG: 60.1%
UA 214 pax 767 to FRA: 58.4%

Good study Massey...you'd have to think that it is perhaps a bit better than even you state if CO put 2x 757's on the routing with 350 daily seats.

So, in UA's case, you could add 15-25 connecting pax per day (not sure what the old LHR service had), you could increase the # to 140-150 per day boosting load factors to a very good # on a 757 and enough for a 7x summer and 5x winter 767.

Once the economy comes back onlline, I'd have to say the only thing in the way is really the FIS piece and some city leadership to get it setup. Not sure if the latter is going to happen.
 
masseybrown
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Thu Feb 07, 2013 8:33 pm

What bothers me is Brookings CLE traffic numbers are higher than the numbers provided by another usually very reliable a.net poster in an earlier thread. I'd like to check with him on where he got his data, but I can't find the message using "search".

Does anybody happen to recall who that poster is?
 
masseybrown
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Thu Feb 07, 2013 9:08 pm

Quoting fun2fly (Reply 45):
Good study Massey...you'd have to think that it is perhaps a bit better than even you state if CO put 2x 757's on the routing with 350 daily seats.

Undoubtedly CO used heaps of connecting traffic. I'm trying to present hard data and very conservative estimates of market stimulation to demonstrate that CLE can make a good case for TATL service on its own in today's economy without any need for feed.

I'd say I can come close, but what airline needs to take the risk? AA might be the hungriest, but a US merger will kill any possible interest for years. DL wants bribes, and CLE is traditionally unwilling to pay. And UA feels they own the market already without providing any service. It does seem an impossible dream at the moment.
 
N766UA
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Thu Feb 07, 2013 11:36 pm

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 44):
So the CLE market for a nonstop flight is 250 pax, more or less.



How can one possibly talk about numbers like this knowing that the service once existed and was cancelled? It's a bit like Drudge Report giving Romney huge percentages of the vote despite his having lost already...
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joeman
Posts: 661
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 2

Fri Feb 08, 2013 12:40 am

Quoting N766UA (Reply 48):
How can one possibly talk about numbers like this knowing that the service once existed and was cancelled?

Because:

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 47):
UA feels they own the market already without providing any service.

and we don't want to dilute the level of flight options going thru our preferred hubs and the connecting passengers that sustain those flight, including those from CLE.

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 44):
CO got better loads to CDG than to LHR during the one year they tried it

Didn't realize this, the official CO reason for dropping the service was a combo of alliance change and economy tanking, not to mention dramatic flight and destination cuts at CLE the same year that may have provided some limited connecting feed. So after 9 years of service, CLE-LGW was changed to CLE-LHR the following year and then dropped. The CO reason for dropping was the inability to land a decent LHR time slot, you know, the same year they found a decent time slot to increase EWR-LHR.

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