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enilria
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OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Sun Jan 27, 2013 4:30 pm

INSTRUCTIONS

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares what is for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 ; means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. No other months were changed. I only list one direction, although it is possible the listed change is only one way. It is too difficult to average the two directions. I assume the change is roundtrip and that is most often the case.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Non-daily operations create fractional weekly service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. If a flight operated 5 days out of 7, it would show 0.8 flights.

WHY ARE THERE WEIRD FREQUENCIES IN FAR AWAY MONTHS FOR LCCs?
Most airlines publish schedules 11 months in advance. This report covers the next 9 months. That avoids seeing schedules as they are loaded. Several LCCs load their schedules less than 9 months into the future. Their schedules may also end mid-month. If B6 loads their schedule until Jan15, all flights in Janaury will show half frequency because of the way the report is created.

WHY IS A WHOLE AIRLINE'S SCHEDULE SHOWN AS CHANGING FOR A FUTURE MONTH?
Similarly to the previous question, some airlines load their schedule from nothing inside the 9 month window of this report. When their schedule is extended it will show as new service because there was no previous schedule to compare to. In some instances I will show a more valid comparison against another period.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE PINNACLE
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THE FREQUENCY DOESN'T SHOW A CHANGE, E.G. 4>4
This happens as a result of rounding. There is a change in service that is large enough to be listed, but through rounding it does not appear.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

SORRY for the delay I mentioned last week. I have to do some work on the database periodically.

*AA SJU-CCS FEB 1.0>0 MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0

AC FLL-YUL MAR 5>4
AC MCO-YYZ MAR 6>5
*AC PVD-YYZ MAR 1.5>0 APR 1.6>0
*AC SAN-YVR MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0

AM JFK-MEX MAR 5>4
AM LAS-MEX MAR 3>1.8
AM LAX-BJX FEB 0>0.4
AM LAX-GDL MAR 1.0>1.3
AM ORD-GDL MAR 0.6>0.4
AM ORD-MEX MAR 1.7>2.0
AM SAT-MTY MAR 0.9>1.0
AM SMF-GDL MAR 0.5>0.7

Finally too much Hawaii capacity? Where did all the planes move to?
AS KOA-OAK MAY 1.0>0.6 JUN 1.0>0.6 JUL 1.0>0.6 AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6
AS KOA-SJC MAY 1.0>0.4 JUN 1.0>0.4 JUL 1.0>0.4 AUG 1.0>0.4 SEP 1.0>0.4
AS LAX-YVR JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
AS LIH-OAK MAY 1.0>0.4 JUN 1.0>0.4 JUL 1.0>0.4 AUG 1.0>0.4 SEP 1.0>0.4
AS LIH-SJC MAY 1.0>0.6 JUN 1.0>0.6 JUL 1.0>0.6 AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6
AS OAK-KOA MAY 1.0>0.6 JUN 1.0>0.6 JUL 1.0>0.6 AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6
AS OAK-LIH MAY 1.0>0.5 JUN 1.0>0.4 JUL 1.0>0.4 AUG 1.0>0.4 SEP 1.0>0.4
*AS PDX-BLI JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>0.8
AS SEA-PHX JUL 6>5 AUG 6>5 SEP 6>5
AS SEA-SFO JUN 7>8 JUL 7>8 AUG 7>8 SEP 7>8
AS SEA-SJC JUN 6>7 JUL 6>7 AUG 6>7 SEP 5>6
AS SJC-KOA MAY 1.0>0.4 JUN 1.0>0.4 JUL 1.0>0.4 AUG 1.0>0.4 SEP 1.0>0.4
AS SJC-LIH MAY 1.0>0.5 JUN 1.0>0.6 JUL 1.0>0.6 AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6

BB SJU-STT FEB 0.9>1.8 MAR 2>3
BB STT-EIS FEB 0.9>0 MAR 0.9>0
BB STT-SJU FEB 1.0>1.9 MAR 2>3

BR SFO-TPE SEP 1.6>1.7

CM MIA-PTY MAR 5>6

DL ATL-AGS MAY 9>10
Intereting. I wonder if they think they can push WN out.
*DL ATL-CAK MAY 4>5 JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5 SEP 4>5
DL ATL-CHA MAR 10>9 MAY 10>9
DL ATL-DEN MAY 8>7
DL ATL-HSV MAR 9>8
DL ATL-LAS MAY 8>7
DL ATL-LIT MAY 6>7
DL ATL-MEX JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5
DL ATL-MGM MAR 9>8 MAY 9>8
DL ATL-MYR MAY 6>7
DL ATL-PUJ APR 2>1.8 MAY 2>1.7
DL ATL-TLH MAR 9>8 MAY 9>10
DL ATL-TYS MAR 11>10
DL DTW-GRB MAR 6>5
DL DTW-GRR MAR 9>8
DL DTW-MKE SEP 6>7
DL DTW-ROA MAR 2.0>1.5
DL DTW-YYZ MAR 8>7
DL HNL-KIX SEP 1.8>1.0
DL JFK-BWI MAY 4>3
DL JFK-CLT MAY 2>1.0
DL JFK-CPH JUN 1.0>0.8
DL JFK-MVY MAY 0.4>0.3
DL JFK-YYZ MAR 1.9>2 MAY 3>1.8
DL LGA-IAD MAY 4>3 JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3 SEP 4>3
DL MSP-YVR JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3

Only some of these flights showed up because of the minimum frequency cutoff
F9 MDW-TTN MAY 0>0.9 JUN 0>0.8
F9 RDU-TTN MAY 0>0.9 JUN 0>0.8

G4 EUG-PSP FEB 0.3>0.1
G4 OAK-PSP FEB 0.3>0.0

IB BOS-MAD APR 1.0>0.7 MAY 1.0>0.7 JUL 1.1>1.0 AUG 1.2>0.8 SEP 1.4>0.7

K5 IPL-SAN MAR 0>5 APR 0>5 MAY 0>5 JUN 0>4 JUL 0>5 AUG 0>5 SEP 0>5

KX IAD-GCM MAY 0.1>0 JUN 0.2>0 JUL 0.1>0 AUG 0.2>0

LA JFK-LIM APR 1.4>2 MAY 1.5>2 JUN 1.4>2 JUL 1.4>2 AUG 1.5>2 SEP 1.0>2
LA MIA-LIM APR 0.4>0.2 MAY 0.5>0.2 JUN 0.4>0.1 JUL 0.5>0.1 AUG 0.4>0.2 SEP 0.5>0.1
LA MIA-SCL APR 2>1.7 MAY 2>1.5 JUN 2>1.6 JUL 2>1.5 AUG 2>1.6 SEP 2>1.6

LW IAD-LNS FEB 5>6 MAR 5>6 APR 5>6 MAY 5>6 JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6 SEP 5>6

NK BWI-MYR MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0
NK FLL-KIN APR 0.1>0 MAY 0.5>0.4
NK MYR-PHL MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0

PD MYR-YTZ SEP 0>0.2

SY MSP-ANC SEP 0.1>0.2

TA JFK-SAP JUL 0.3>0.5 AUG 0.3>0.6
TA LAX-SAL JUL 1.6>2 AUG 1.6>2
TA MIA-MGA JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2
TA SFO-SAL JUL 1.4>1.8 AUG 1.5>1.9

*TS FLL-YUL MAY 0>0.1 JUN 0>0.2 JUL 0>0.1 AUG 0>0.1 SEP 0>0.2
*TS FLL-YYZ MAY 0>0.1 JUN 0>0.2 JUL 0>0.1 AUG 0>0.2 SEP 0>0.1
*TS MCO-YUL MAY 0.1>0.3 JUN 0>0.3 JUL 0>0.3 AUG 0>0.3 SEP 0>0.3
*TS MCO-YYZ MAY 0>0.3 JUN 0>0.3 JUL 0>0.3 AUG 0>0.3 SEP 0>0.2

UA DEN-PHX JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5
UA DEN-RAP JUN 6>7 JUL 6>7 AUG 6>7
UA DEN-RNO JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3
UA DEN-SMF JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5
UA DEN-TUL JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5
UA DEN-YQR JUN 2>1.2 JUL 2>1.0 AUG 2>1.2
UA EWR-LAS JUL 7>6
UA EWR-MIA JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4
UA EWR-PDX JUN 1.0>1.8 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>1.8
UA EWR-SNA JUN 2.0>3 JUL 1.9>3 AUG 1.8>3
UA EWR-YYZ MAY 10>9 JUN 10>9 JUL 10>9 AUG 10>9 SEP 10>9
*UA GUM-KIJ APR 0.3>0.1 MAY 0.3>0 JUN 0.3>0
UA IAH-AEX JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3
UA IAH-ATL JUN 8>9 JUL 7>9 AUG 7>8
UA IAH-CLL JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3
UA IAH-COS JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
UA IAH-CRP AUG 9>8
UA IAH-ELP JUN 6>7 JUL 6>7 AUG 6>7
UA IAH-GRK JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3
UA IAH-HSV JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
UA IAH-JAX JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3
UA IAH-PDX JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
UA IAH-PHL JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4
UA IAH-PNS JUL 6>5 AUG 6>5
UA IAH-RIC JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3
UA IAH-SAN JUN 6>7 JUL 6>7 AUG 6>7
UA IAH-SAV JUN 2>1.2
UA IAH-YYZ JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3
UA LAX-BWI JUN 1.0>1.8 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>1.8
*UA LAX-IPL MAR 2>0 APR 2>0 MAY 2>0 JUN 2>0 JUL 2>0 AUG 2>0 SEP 2>0
UA LAX-LAS JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5
UA LAX-OKC JUN 1.0>1.8 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>1.8
UA LAX-PHX JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3
UA LAX-SAN JUN 13>14 JUL 13>14 AUG 13>14
UA LAX-SLC JUL 3>2
UA ORD-ANC JUN 1.0>1.8 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 0.8>1.7
UA ORD-ANC JUN 1.0>1.8 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 0.8>1.7
UA ORD-DEN JUN 9>10 JUL 9>10
UA ORD-EWR JUL 15>16 AUG 14>15
UA ORD-IAH JUN 13>14 JUL 13>14
UA SFO-ABQ JUN 1.1>2.0 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>1.8
UA SFO-ACV JUN 8>7 JUL 8>7 AUG 8>7
UA SFO-BWI JUN 1.0>1.8 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>1.8
UA SFO-DEN JUN 9>11 JUL 9>11 AUG 9>11
UA SFO-MCI JUN 3>2 JUL 3>2
UA SFO-MFR JUN 7>6 JUL 7>5 AUG 7>6
UA SFO-OGG MAY 2>3
UA SFO-ORD JUN 15>14 JUL 16>14 AUG 16>14
UA SFO-PSP JUN 3>1.7 JUL 3>1.0 AUG 3>1.6
UA SFO-RDD JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
UA SFO-RNO JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6
UA SFO-SEA JUN 9>8 JUL 9>8 AUG 9>8
UA SFO-SNA JUN 7>8 JUL 7>8
VX and then UA
*UA SFO-YYZ APR 0.9>0.0 MAY 0.9>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 0.9>0

*US DCA-YHZ JUN 0>0.2 JUL 0>0.1 AUG 0>0.2

US PHL-ATH SEP 0.9>0.7

VR BOS-RAI APR 0.5>0.3 MAY 0.4>0.3 JUN 0.4>0.3 SEP 0.4>0.3

I thought they already flew this
*VX LAS-LAX APR 0>0.7 MAY 0>3 JUN 0>3 JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3 SEP 0>4

YV HNL-KOA FEB 6>5
YV HNL-LIH FEB 6>5
YV KOA-HNL FEB 6>5
YV LIH-HNL FEB 6>5
 
MaverickM11
Posts: 15217
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 1:59 pm

RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Sun Jan 27, 2013 4:37 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):

*AA SJU-CCS FEB 1.0>0 MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0

Wow. I'm honestly surprised this one went. Maybe the last Venezuelan withdrew the last dollar from their ATM account outside of Venezuela.
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
User avatar
RWA380
Posts: 4441
Joined: Fri Feb 18, 2005 10:51 am

RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Sun Jan 27, 2013 4:48 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*AA SJU-CCS FEB 1.0>0 MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0
Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 1):

Wow. I'm honestly surprised this one went. Maybe the last Venezuelan withdrew the last dollar from their ATM account outside of Venezuela.

Ditto, I think many thought this one was going to remain. Can AA move the authority to MIA or DFW? I wouldn't think so. Does AA just give up at CCS?
Next Flights: PDX-HNL-OGG-LIH-PDX On AS, WP & HA
 
point2point
Posts: 2080
Joined: Fri Mar 19, 2010 10:54 pm

RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Sun Jan 27, 2013 4:52 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
K5 IPL-SAN MAR 0>5 APR 0>5 MAY 0>5 JUN 0>4 JUL 0>5 AUG 0>5 SEP 0>5
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*UA LAX-IPL MAR 2>0 APR 2>0 MAY 2>0 JUN 2>0 JUL 2>0 AUG 2>0 SEP 2>0

Does SAN either have more O&D here, or better connects (ha) that UA pulled out and now K5 is using SAN as the only air destination to/from IPL? I would think that K5 would want to stay with LAX if UA didn't want this route.


 
 
MaverickM11
Posts: 15217
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 1:59 pm

RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Sun Jan 27, 2013 4:53 pm

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 2):
Can AA move the authority to MIA or DFW? I wouldn't think so. Does AA just give up at CCS?

Regardless of what they can "legally" do, Venezuela is unlikely to allow/sign off on it any time soon.
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
kcrwflyer
Posts: 2529
Joined: Tue May 18, 2004 11:57 am

RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Sun Jan 27, 2013 4:58 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Intereting. I wonder if they think they can push WN out.
*DL ATL-CAK MAY 4>5 JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5 SEP 4>5

Do you think they'll have to push WN out of that route? I think that'll sort itself out.

It's going from 2 D95 1M88 and 1 CR9 to 3CR9 1D95 and 1M88.
 
miaami
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RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Sun Jan 27, 2013 5:05 pm

*AA SJU-CCS FEB 1.0>0 MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0

I think that might be an error. The flight is staffed for next month and still in sabre thru summer.
 
yellowtail
Posts: 3708
Joined: Fri Jun 17, 2005 3:46 am

RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Sun Jan 27, 2013 5:28 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*AA SJU-CCS FEB 1.0>0 MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0

I can't believe this...must be an error. Up to very recently, AA said the rights on this was very valuable and the O&D was very good. There is no way AA will ever be allowed to transfer it to another route. Maybe we will see B6 announce it "in cooperation with AA". Maybe the Venezuelans woudl allow them to sell it to another carrier.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
LA MIA-LIM APR 0.4>0.2 MAY 0.5>0.2 JUN 0.4>0.1 JUL 0.5>0.1 AUG 0.4>0.2 SEP 0.5>0.1
LA MIA-SCL APR 2>1.7 MAY 2>1.5 JUN 2>1.6 JUL 2>1.5 AUG 2>1.6 SEP 2>1.6

Whats happening here?

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
TA JFK-SAP JUL 0.3>0.5 AUG 0.3>0.6

The rumor mill has been wild in SAP with B6 wanting to start JFK-SAP....maybe this is "good offense"
When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
 
mhkansan
Posts: 709
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RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Sun Jan 27, 2013 5:31 pm

Quoting miaami (Reply 6):
I think that might be an error. The flight is staffed for next month and still in sabre thru summer.

Yeah. Still in SABRE as a daily 738 until the end of the schedule. Right now November, and with the situation with Venezuelan slots I don't think it will go anywhere unless they let AA shift the flight to DFW.
 
toltommy
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RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Sun Jan 27, 2013 5:36 pm

Quoting Kcrwflyer (Reply 5):
Do you think they'll have to push WN out of that route? I think that'll sort itself out.

It's going from 2 D95 1M88 and 1 CR9 to 3CR9 1D95 and 1M88.

It will as FL eventually becomes WN and dehubs ATL. I think you'll see less service from WN in the ATL-CAK market than FL has today.
 
SANFan
Posts: 3671
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:10 am

RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Sun Jan 27, 2013 6:01 pm

Quoting point2point (Reply 3):
Does SAN either have more O&D here, or better connects (ha) that UA pulled out and now K5 is using SAN as the only air destination to/from IPL? I would think that K5 would want to stay with LAX if UA didn't want this route.

This topic was discussed here recently:
SeaPort To Replace SkyWest At Imperial, CA (IPL) (by hawaiian717 Jan 15 2013 in Civil Aviation)

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AS KOA-OAK MAY 1.0>0.6 JUN 1.0>0.6 JUL 1.0>0.6 AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6
AS KOA-SJC MAY 1.0>0.4 JUN 1.0>0.4 JUL 1.0>0.4 AUG 1.0>0.4 SEP 1.0>0.4
AS LAX-YVR JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
AS LIH-OAK MAY 1.0>0.4 JUN 1.0>0.4 JUL 1.0>0.4 AUG 1.0>0.4 SEP 1.0>0.4
AS LIH-SJC MAY 1.0>0.6 JUN 1.0>0.6 JUL 1.0>0.6 AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6
AS OAK-KOA MAY 1.0>0.6 JUN 1.0>0.6 JUL 1.0>0.6 AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6
AS OAK-LIH MAY 1.0>0.5 JUN 1.0>0.4 JUL 1.0>0.4 AUG 1.0>0.4 SEP 1.0>0.4
*AS PDX-BLI JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>0.8
AS SEA-PHX JUL 6>5 AUG 6>5 SEP 6>5
AS SEA-SFO JUN 7>8 JUL 7>8 AUG 7>8 SEP 7>8
AS SEA-SJC JUN 6>7 JUL 6>7 AUG 6>7 SEP 5>6
AS SJC-KOA MAY 1.0>0.4 JUN 1.0>0.4 JUL 1.0>0.4 AUG 1.0>0.4 SEP 1.0>0.4
AS SJC-LIH MAY 1.0>0.5 JUN 1.0>0.6 JUL 1.0>0.6 AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6

Interesting (and new) as I just did a summer 2013 AS Hawaii turn-schedule (based on "current" online schedules and the booking engine) and almost every one of the Bay Area-HI flights was still daily. I will be looking at this carefully to see what's happening.

Hopefully AS will find some a/c time to replace this surprisingly vacated route:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*AC SAN-YVR MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0

bb
 
kcrwflyer
Posts: 2529
Joined: Tue May 18, 2004 11:57 am

RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Sun Jan 27, 2013 6:30 pm

Quoting toltommy (Reply 9):
It will as FL eventually becomes WN and dehubs ATL. I think you'll see less service from WN in the ATL-CAK market than FL has today.


I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up gone. Maybe one flight and that's a big maybe IMO. It Depends on how much traffic they're wiling to flow through ATL and how small the operation ends up.
 
diverdave
Posts: 446
Joined: Sun Mar 07, 2010 1:00 am

RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Sun Jan 27, 2013 6:38 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
DL ATL-HSV MAR 9>8
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA IAH-HSV JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4

UA giveth, and DL taketh away. Perhaps Delta is upgauging our service again. We have 4 mainline birds on weekdays.

enilria, many thanks for your weekly labors!

Thanks again,
David
 
Bobloblaw
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Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2012 1:15 pm

RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Sun Jan 27, 2013 6:54 pm

Thanks for these weekly updates. I appreciate it.
 
MAH4546
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RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Sun Jan 27, 2013 7:34 pm

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 1):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):

*AA SJU-CCS FEB 1.0>0 MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0

Wow. I'm honestly surprised this one went. Maybe the last Venezuelan withdrew the last dollar from their ATM account outside of Venezuela.


Highly doubt it's gone. Probably removed in error - the end date a week from now gives that away - should be reversed shortly, if not already. Flight is still bookable at it's typical astronomical fares through EOS.

If this goes, I'd be shocked. That route has to print money, or AA's costs problems are far more serious than we thought.

[Edited 2013-01-27 11:38:47]
a.
 
SurfandSnow
Posts: 1050
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2009 7:09 am

RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Sun Jan 27, 2013 8:12 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*AA SJU-CCS FEB 1.0>0 MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0

Can't say I'm surprised to see this one gone, no matter what I read here on a.net about how well it was supposedly doing. It did not fit the cornerstone strategy, and with no connectivity beyond SJU to other Caribbean markets, there probably wasn't enough O&D between SJU/Puerto Rico and CCS/Venezuela to make it worthwhile. After all, I doubt many Puerto Ricans think "hey honey, let's check out Caracas for our next vacation" and it isn't very easy for Venezuelans to get U.S. visas for Puerto Rican vacations...

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*AC PVD-YYZ MAR 1.5>0 APR 1.6>0

I read that Rhode Island's unemployment rate is the highest in the nation (along with Nevada), so I'm guessing that may have something to do with AA's reluctance to restart PVD (according to wikipedia it is the largest metropolitan area they do not serve) and AC pulling out? In any case it is a big enough blow for the airport that a thread was started about it!

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*AC SAN-YVR MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0

So no more nonstop service between San Diego and Vancouver at all? Seems like a perfect opportunity for WS or AS to step up and fill the void..

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Finally too much Hawaii capacity? Where did all the planes move to?
AS KOA-OAK MAY 1.0>0.6 JUN 1.0>0.6 JUL 1.0>0.6 AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6
AS KOA-SJC MAY 1.0>0.4 JUN 1.0>0.4 JUL 1.0>0.4 AUG 1.0>0.4 SEP 1.0>0.4
AS LIH-OAK MAY 1.0>0.4 JUN 1.0>0.4 JUL 1.0>0.4 AUG 1.0>0.4 SEP 1.0>0.4
AS LIH-SJC MAY 1.0>0.6 JUN 1.0>0.6 JUL 1.0>0.6 AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6

Maybe they overdid it with daily service on the nonstop p2p routes between the smaller, secondary California airports and the outer islands, but at least the routes themselves remain. Maybe its just temporary, i.e. a late aircraft delivery from Boeing forcing them to come up with metal for the new routes like SAN-BOS and SEA-SLC?

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*AS PDX-BLI JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>0.8

This has been a summer seasonal service for a while. Given that AS can apparently make year round BLI-LAS and BLI-Hawaii work - on mainline metal, mind you - it is a bit shocking they can only serve their PDX hub with a seasonal Q400.. Then again, why connect through PDX which has inherently fewer options/frequencies than SEA?

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Intereting. I wonder if they think they can push WN out.
*DL ATL-CAK MAY 4>5 JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5 SEP 4>5

Perhaps, but why CAK, where FL has a strong FF base that will probably largely migrate to WN? From ATL, there are certainly much weaker FL routes that DL could target like MEM, PNS, and RDU...

In the grand scheme of things, it will be interesting to see what happens at CAK. Right now there is UAX to ORD, USX to CLT, DCA, and PHL, DL/DLC to ATL and DLC to DTW, WN to MDW and DEN, and FL to ATL, BOS, LGA, MCO, TPA, and seasonal RSW. WN drove F9 right off the DEN-CAK route, but who knows if they'll keep CAK-BOS/LGA/ATL going rather than just doing BWI and Florida like at FNT. So far they haven't reallocated 2 of those scarce LGA slots, but then again they haven't reallocated any of FL's at DCA either. Something tells me that CAK-LGA could continue until the Wright Amendment expires, and they can offer a 2x daily DAL-LGA. If FL/WN CAK-LGA ends, I wouldn't be surprised to see DL to start the route. If AA and US merge, I bet we'll see them add ORD-CAK, putting pressure on UA and WN existing services. There have been rumors of WN doing CLE-ATL in favor of CAK-ATL, but which airport got DEN service? I tend to think CAK-ATL stays...

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
G4 OAK-PSP FEB 0.3>0.0

I realize that there is a ton of PSP service from nearby SFO, but I wonder if OAK-PSP could be a good QX route. I've also wondered if the new WN could pull off PSP service rather than serving Palm Springs via ONT. The old airline had to run a minimum of 8 daily flights year round, which would be impossible from PSP - nobody goes there in the dead of summer. But now that they are a much more seasonal carrier (thanks, FL) I could possibly see a mix of OAK, SJC, SMF, LAS, PHX, perhaps even SFO, DEN, and MDW, 1-2x daily each, depending on the season...

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*UA GUM-KIJ APR 0.3>0.1 MAY 0.3>0 JUN 0.3>0

Another GUM route bites the dust. I wonder why UA hasn't tried to link GUM with ICN and TPE? All they continue to do is the island hoppers, HNL, CNS, Japan, MNL, and HKG...

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA LAX-BWI JUN 1.0>1.8 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>1.8
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA SFO-BWI JUN 1.0>1.8 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>1.8

I have a feeling BWI is definitely on the VX radar... Might as well start beefing up these routes now!

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*UA LAX-IPL MAR 2>0 APR 2>0 MAY 2>0 JUN 2>0 JUL 2>0 AUG 2>0 SEP 2>0

As the Brasilias go, so too do the routes like these they serve. Obviously a market like IPL cannot support RJ service.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
VX and then UA
*UA SFO-YYZ APR 0.9>0.0 MAY 0.9>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 0.9>0

LOL, well UA flew the route for a lot longer than VX did. As we have seen with many other transborder routes, AC has abandoned the routes in which they were in a weaker position than UA, and vice versa, in favor of putting a codeshare on the stronger carrier's flights. AC gave up ORD-YYC for UA, UA gives up SFO-YYZ for AC, makes sense to me.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
I thought they already flew this
*VX LAS-LAX APR 0>0.7 MAY 0>3 JUN 0>3 JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3 SEP 0>4

Nope, LAS has only been served from SFO and JFK. Now that VX has a pretty decent FF base in LA, the time has come to give them what they want: nonstop to LAS.
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RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Sun Jan 27, 2013 8:56 pm

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 1):
Wow. I'm honestly surprised this one went. Maybe the last Venezuelan withdrew the last dollar from their ATM account outside of Venezuela.
Quoting miaami (Reply 6):
*AA SJU-CCS FEB 1.0>0 MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0

I think that might be an error. The flight is staffed for next month and still in sabre thru summer.
Quoting mah4546 (Reply 14):
Probably removed in error - the end date a week from now gives that away

It was definitely filed that way. I agree the close in cancel is suspicious. Either it is a mistake or they are selling it to B6.

Quoting Kcrwflyer (Reply 5):
Do you think they'll have to push WN out of that route? I think that'll sort itself out.
Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 15):
Perhaps, but why CAK, where FL has a strong FF base that will probably largely migrate to WN? From ATL, there are certainly much weaker FL routes that DL could target like MEM, PNS, and RDU...

I think DL would consider it a particular victory to push WN out of CAK-ATL as CAK was probably FL's most profitable station (certainly in terms of profit margin). I think it does not really fit with what WN is doing (or not doing) in ATL and thus is in danger. I can see CLE-ATL replacing it. I think CAK becomes leisure and CLE business markets for WN.

Quoting diverdave (Reply 12):
enilria, many thanks for your weekly labors!
Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 13):
Thanks for these weekly updates. I appreciate it.

  Thanks guys...

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 15):
Maybe its just temporary, i.e. a late aircraft delivery from Boeing forcing them to come up with metal for the new routes like SAN-BOS and SEA-SLC?

Lucky they don't have 787s.  
Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 15):
Another GUM route bites the dust. I wonder why UA hasn't tried to link GUM with ICN and TPE? All they continue to do is the island hoppers, HNL, CNS, Japan, MNL, and HKG...

I know people say that CO really took over UA, but I feel like over time it is swinging back to UA. More and more they are behaving like UA and not CO. I think the UA people in the middle who stayed are gradually pushing their "strategies". I don't think the UA people care/understand GUM or Latin. I think they are fully focused on the prestige stuff to Europe with LH and Transpac.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 15):
I have a feeling BWI is definitely on the VX radar... Might as well start beefing up these routes now!

I can see VX leaving IAD and moving to BWI now that they have a toe in DCA. UA should happily let that happen. OTOH, I think B6 leaving IAD is much more likely. I think keeping WN out of BOS-IAD is the only reason B6 is still in IAD.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 15):
Nope, LAS has only been served from SFO and JFK. Now that VX has a pretty decent FF base in LA, the time has come to give them what they want: nonstop to LAS.

Where are they getting all these airplanes? EWR and this too? They aren't taking any more planes.
 
flflyguy
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RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Sun Jan 27, 2013 9:00 pm

*AA SJU-CCS FEB 1.0>0 MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0

All I can tell you is that I'm supposed to work a sequence that includes this leg for February. It is still in my schedule thru the end of the month so it's either a mistake (the OAG filing) or they haven't updated SABRE yet. If they are going to cancel it I hope they update the system soon!

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COflyerBOS
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RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Sun Jan 27, 2013 9:36 pm

Another overall reduction in flights to IAH by UA.

Cannot believe Philadelphia is down to just 4 dailies. Didn't WN just leave the market?
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Sun Jan 27, 2013 9:41 pm

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 15):
There have been rumors of WN doing CLE-ATL in favor of CAK-ATL, but which airport got DEN service? I tend to think CAK-ATL stays...

For what it's worth, CLE has DEN on UA and adding service there would have likely resulted in WN and UA being in the CLE-DEN market while F9 remained at CAK. WN probably knew that going into CAK would eliminate the low fare competitor in the market. Not sure anyone could've predicted F9 starting CLE on a less than daily basis, but WN remains in a better competitive position with a daily flight.

Quoting enilria (Reply 16):
I can see CLE-ATL replacing it. I think CAK becomes leisure and CLE business markets for WN.

I could see that too. CAK was built around low fares (and a great airport with the best marketing I've ever seen an airport do). Without a significant connecting hub in ATL, WN is going to need to go where the O&D can fill most seats. The CAK-ATL market can not be stimulated beyond where FL had taken it (Unless NK ever builds up ATL....but thats another thread). CLE probably has a larger market of passengers and a higher fare which might, "might", have potential for some stimulation.

It could be very interesting to see how WN leverages their presence these two airports. There's always the possibility that neither could have ATL.
 
ouboy79
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RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Sun Jan 27, 2013 10:17 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA LAX-OKC JUN 1.0>1.8 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>1.8

Granted this is seasonal, but it is amazing to point out that OKC-LAX will be 5 daily flights (combined with AA) when this operates.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Sun Jan 27, 2013 10:21 pm

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 15):
Can't say I'm surprised to see this one gone, no matter what I read here on a.net about how well it was supposedly doing. It did not fit the cornerstone strategy, and with no connectivity beyond SJU to other Caribbean markets, there probably wasn't enough O&D between SJU/Puerto Rico and CCS/Venezuela to make it worthwhile. After all, I doubt many Puerto Ricans think "hey honey, let's check out Caracas for our next vacation" and it isn't very easy for Venezuelans to get U.S. visas for Puerto Rican vacations...

AA isn't discontinuing it.

It's actually very easy for Venezuelans to get U.S. visas, and Puerto Rico is very popular with them, for both visiting, as well as shopping and doctor visits.
a.
 
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AVENSAB727
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RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Sun Jan 27, 2013 10:39 pm

Quoting COflyerBOS (Reply 18):

They are shrinking in some places and growing in others. Philly is not a real money making route.

[Edited 2013-01-27 15:00:01]
Always look on the bright side of Life!
 
flyby519
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RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Sun Jan 27, 2013 10:39 pm

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 21):
It's actually very easy for Venezuelans to get U.S. visas, and Puerto Rico is very popular with them, for both visiting, as well as shopping and doctor visits.

Oh wait, there is actually O&D between SJU and S.America?!?   sorry I couldnt resist
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MAH4546
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RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Sun Jan 27, 2013 10:49 pm

Quoting flyby519 (Reply 23):
Quoting mah4546 (Reply 21):
It's actually very easy for Venezuelans to get U.S. visas, and Puerto Rico is very popular with them, for both visiting, as well as shopping and doctor visits.

Oh wait, there is actually O&D between SJU and S.America?!?   sorry I couldnt resist

There is indeed O&D between San Juan and both Venezuela and Colombia. I have made sure to mention that whenever discussing how there is no O&D between Puerto Rico and SouthAm otherwise.

Quoting enilria (Reply 16):
Either it is a mistake or they are selling it to B6.

Venezuelan flight frequencies cannot be sold and Venezuela will never in a million years let JetBlue fly there. The government has already threatened to ban all U.S. airlines except AA.

[Edited 2013-01-27 14:54:58]
a.
 
yellowtail
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RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Sun Jan 27, 2013 10:51 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 16):
I know people say that CO really took over UA, but I feel like over time it is swinging back to UA. More and more they are behaving like UA and not CO. I think the UA people in the middle who stayed are gradually pushing their "strategies". I don't think the UA people care/understand GUM or Latin. I think they are fully focused on the prestige stuff to Europe with LH and Transpac.

I would suspect that in a few years....GUM will be UAs version of AA at SJU
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RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Sun Jan 27, 2013 11:09 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
NK MYR-PHL MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0

I missed this one. Does this mean they will be starting DFW & MYR from PHL? I expected NK to add to the cities flown to from PHL eventually, but not until they started DFW. Are there any other cities the are looking to add from PHL?
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RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Sun Jan 27, 2013 11:14 pm

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 15):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*AC SAN-YVR MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0

So no more nonstop service between San Diego and Vancouver at all? Seems like a perfect opportunity for WS or AS to step up and fill the void..
Quoting SANFan (Reply 10):
Hopefully AS will find some a/c time to replace this surprisingly vacated route:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*AC SAN-YVR MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0

SAN-YVR was actually AS's original YVR route. It lasted until AS got authority to instead start LAX and SFO to YVR and they shifted the capacity there and discontinued SAN-YVR.

Given the buildup at SAN, maybe AS should try SAN-YVR and the stillborn SNA-YVR routes. I'd like to see SJC-YVR also.
 
COSPN
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RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Mon Jan 28, 2013 12:27 am

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 25):
Quoting enilria (Reply 16):
I know people say that CO really took over UA, but I feel like over time it is swinging back to UA. More and more they are behaving like UA and not CO. I think the UA people in the middle who stayed are gradually pushing their "strategies". I don't think the UA people care/understand GUM or Latin. I think they are fully focused on the prestige stuff to Europe with LH and Transpac.

I would suspect that in a few years....GUM will be UAs version of AA at SJU

UA only thinks Japan= NRT they have no desire to do much with the rest of Japan, they let DL fly NRT-ROR gutting ROR the best feed. the cut the position of EVP for Guam to save money so Guam is just getting smaller by the day..TPE is now srved by BR and CI and KE, Jin Air, and Jeju Air all serve Korea, DL has 3 flights Japan to Saipan, but UA says there is "no market".

People in Asia have money, Guam is 2000 miles from 2 billion people, but they keep cutting flights  
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Mon Jan 28, 2013 12:29 am

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
IB BOS-MAD APR 1.0>0.7 MAY 1.0>0.7 JUL 1.1>1.0 AUG 1.2>0.8 SEP 1.4>0.7

This cutback makes sense. Did not know IB had plans to fly this route more than once daily this summer.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 15):
Another GUM route bites the dust. I wonder why UA hasn't tried to link GUM with ICN and TPE? All they continue to do is the island hoppers, HNL, CNS, Japan, MNL, and HKG...

ROR and YAP are not part of the main island hopper route.

KX IAD-GCM MAY 0.1>0 JUN 0.2>0 JUL 0.1>0 AUG 0.2>0

Every couple of years these guys tend to use the "dartboard route map". They should partner up with someone and go all in at JFK/FLL/MIA/TPA
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AM, BA, B6, CO, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WN
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Mon Jan 28, 2013 12:32 am

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 25):
I would suspect that in a few years....GUM will be UAs version of AA at SJU

mmmm...maybe but fares on the Island Hopper are very very high. I have seen where the only fares that were available were F, Y and one discount fare. Also JetBlue isnt about to step into GUM. Also lots of military traffic.
 
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adamh8297
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RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Mon Jan 28, 2013 12:50 am

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 30):

AA replaced SJU with MIA.... What would UA replace GUM with?

SJU and GUM are apples and oranges. GUM is niche markets fortified by the military-industrial complex.
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AM, BA, B6, CO, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WN
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Mon Jan 28, 2013 1:05 am

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 27):
SAN-YVR was actually AS's original YVR route. It lasted until AS got authority to instead start LAX and SFO to YVR and they shifted the capacity there and discontinued SAN-YVR


AS has actually attempted the SAN-YVR service on at least 2, and possibly 3 different occasions. (The most recent was ended in fall of 2006.) I'm pretty sure that during the earlier attempts, other cx also flew the route and AS backed away. (CPAir did serve the route at one point for a year or so and that may have been at a time when AS was also in the market.)

In fact, over the years, the route has had a LOT of (unsuccessful) service by several cx, including AS, HP, CP, AC, and if I remember correctly, WA and UA. That tells me that there is traffic in the market, but yields and/or taxes keep affecting the profitability and the routes are pulled.

As I said in my earlier post, I would sure love to see AS try it once again, given their new involvement and presence in SAN. (And I can't help but believe that WS is at least looking carefully at the possibility of jumping in there as well.) If the folks at AAG think the numbers look healthy enough, I expect (and really hope) they might jump pretty quickly, even in time for the summer (cruise) season.

  
bb
 
airliner371
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RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Mon Jan 28, 2013 1:15 am

Quoting enilria (Reply 16):
I think keeping WN out of BOS-IAD is the only reason B6 is still in IAD.

Why would WN start BOS-IAD?
 
MaverickM11
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RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Mon Jan 28, 2013 1:18 am

Quoting COSPN (Reply 28):
Guam is just getting smaller by the day.

I bet it's up in capacity since before the merger. HKG is back and now more than twice/week, NRT/HNL each probably gained 100+ seats per departure with the high density 777s

Quoting COSPN (Reply 28):
UA only thinks Japan= NRT they have no desire to do much with the rest of Japan

UA serves more destinations in Japan than all other mainland US carriers combined, squared  
Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 30):
Also JetBlue isnt about to step into GUM.

I'm surprised Japanese LCCs haven't blanketed Micronesia years ago
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AA94
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RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Mon Jan 28, 2013 4:04 am

Quoting enilria (Reply 16):
I can see VX leaving IAD and moving to BWI now that they have a toe in DCA. UA should happily let that happen. OTOH, I think B6 leaving IAD is much more likely. I think keeping WN out of BOS-IAD is the only reason B6 is still in IAD.

As happy as this would make me, I'm having trouble justifying it. IMO, BWI and IAD serve two distinctly different catchment areas; IAD is the principal domestic and international hub for basically the entire NoVA/DC+suburbs, while BWI is the primary domestic airport for folks in the Baltimore suburbs, points north of the city, and even some residents of southern PA (for which PHL is almost equally as far as BWI).

If VX were to discontinue IAD flying and shift that capacity to BWI, they'd basically be leaving the burden of NoVA/DC catchment on DCA, which is heavily slot controlled, and definitely cannot pick up the balance of flying. This means that people in NoVA/DC have to make the rather unpleasant trek up into Maryland if they can't get a flight from DCA.

My description is in no means scientific (I don't know what the numbers are) but rather just an analysis of what the area's airports are like.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 15):
I have a feeling BWI is definitely on the VX radar... Might as well start beefing up these routes now!

It would be interesting ...
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phlwok
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RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Mon Jan 28, 2013 4:05 am

Quoting AVENSAB727 (Reply 22):

They are shrinking in some places and growing in others. Philly is not a real money making route.

With US also having 4x daily mainline on the route and an ability to feed UA codeshares in IAH, the 8x daily frequency is probably sufficient.
 
ouboy79
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RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Mon Jan 28, 2013 4:09 am

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 33):
Why would WN start BOS-IAD?

Pretty much. IAD is just a spoke to two "hubs" and not much else. It's mainly there to provide options to those that didn't want to drive to/from BWI - and because there wasn't DCA until recently.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Mon Jan 28, 2013 4:11 am

Quoting Kcrwflyer (Reply 19):
Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 15):
There have been rumors of WN doing CLE-ATL in favor of CAK-ATL, but which airport got DEN service? I tend to think CAK-ATL stays...

For what it's worth, CLE has DEN on UA and adding service there would have likely resulted in WN and UA being in the CLE-DEN market while F9 remained at CAK. WN probably knew that going into CAK would eliminate the low fare competitor in the market.

Exactly, they were running F9 away and it worked.

Quoting Kcrwflyer (Reply 19):
WN is going to need to go where the O&D can fill most seats. The CAK-ATL market can not be stimulated beyond where FL had taken it (Unless NK ever builds up ATL....but thats another thread). CLE probably has a larger market of passengers and a higher fare which might, "might", have potential for some stimulation.

I think cost is also an issue. CLE is expensive, but the fares are high. CAK is cheaper, but the fares are lower. The best strategy is to fly business markets from CLE to get the higher fare and leisure from CAK to get the lower cost.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 24):
Quoting enilria (Reply 16):
Either it is a mistake or they are selling it to B6.

Venezuelan flight frequencies cannot be sold and Venezuela will never in a million years let JetBlue fly there. The government has already threatened to ban all U.S. airlines except AA.

Then I guess we will see next week, actually might be tomorrow if OAG updates it. Quite a mistake.

Quoting COSPN (Reply 28):

People in Asia have money, Guam is 2000 miles from 2 billion people, but they keep cutting flights
Quoting yellowtail (Reply 25):
I would suspect that in a few years....GUM will be UAs version of AA at SJU

Could be. I think it is a great opportunity for an LCC.

Quoting jlbmedia (Reply 26):
I missed this one. Does this mean they will be starting DFW & MYR from PHL? I expected NK to add to the cities flown to from PHL eventually, but not until they started DFW. Are there any other cities the are looking to add from PHL?

What's interesting is that F9 is moving from PHL to TTN and the other ULCC is moving flights from ACY to PHL. LOL

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 33):
Quoting enilria (Reply 16):
I think keeping WN out of BOS-IAD is the only reason B6 is still in IAD.

Why would WN start BOS-IAD?

WN is weak in both BOS and IAD. WN is hopping mad that B6 grabbed BOS while they were f---ing around in MHT. I think they are looking for any beachhead. BOS-IAD would straddle DCA, but it won't happen unless B6 gives it up.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 34):
Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 30):
Also JetBlue isnt about to step into GUM.

I'm surprised Japanese LCCs haven't blanketed Micronesia years ago

The Air Asia JV with ANA is probably planning something.
 
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mariner
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RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Mon Jan 28, 2013 4:19 am

Quoting enilria (Reply 38):
Exactly, they were running F9 away and it worked.

That's a point of view.

The other point of view is that Frontier had to have an aircraft at CLE - not just for CLE-CUN/PUJ but that aircraft services PHL-CUN/PUJ and PIT-CUN/PUJ as well.

Ferrying an empty aircraft DEN-CLE - as they had been doing - was expensive and a waste of aircraft time. So they amalgamate at one station.

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RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Mon Jan 28, 2013 4:35 am

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Finally too much Hawaii capacity? Where did all the planes move to?
AS KOA-OAK MAY 1.0>0.6 JUN 1.0>0.6 JUL 1.0>0.6 AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6
AS KOA-SJC MAY 1.0>0.4 JUN 1.0>0.4 JUL 1.0>0.4 AUG 1.0>0.4 SEP 1.0>0.4
AS LAX-YVR JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
AS LIH-OAK MAY 1.0>0.4 JUN 1.0>0.4 JUL 1.0>0.4 AUG 1.0>0.4 SEP 1.0>0.4
AS LIH-SJC MAY 1.0>0.6 JUN 1.0>0.6 JUL 1.0>0.6 AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6
AS OAK-KOA MAY 1.0>0.6 JUN 1.0>0.6 JUL 1.0>0.6 AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6
AS OAK-LIH MAY 1.0>0.5 JUN 1.0>0.4 JUL 1.0>0.4 AUG 1.0>0.4 SEP 1.0>0.4
*AS PDX-BLI JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>0.8
AS SEA-PHX JUL 6>5 AUG 6>5 SEP 6>5
AS SEA-SFO JUN 7>8 JUL 7>8 AUG 7>8 SEP 7>8
AS SEA-SJC JUN 6>7 JUL 6>7 AUG 6>7 SEP 5>6
AS SJC-KOA MAY 1.0>0.4 JUN 1.0>0.4 JUL 1.0>0.4 AUG 1.0>0.4 SEP 1.0>0.4
AS SJC-LIH MAY 1.0>0.5 JUN 1.0>0.6 JUL 1.0>0.6 AUG 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.6

This is just a normal seasonal Hawaii pull-down in order to drastically increase frequency SEA-ANC for the summer and add ANC-LAX (2xdaily), ANC-DEN (1xdaily) and increase PDX-ANC. It just seems more dramatic this summer because as of last summer a lot of these routes didn't even exist or were quite new. Some started last June and weren't daily to begin with.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Mon Jan 28, 2013 5:31 am

Quoting enilria (Reply 38):
WN is hopping mad that B6 grabbed BOS while they were f---ing around in MHT.

All you are saying here is "I think this is what happened or should have happened so I'm gonna say this." Making up information...

Quoting enilria (Reply 38):
but it won't happen unless B6 gives it up.

Its not gonna happen, period. From what we know, WN serves BOS to be in Boston, not to make it into the next Denver or even close to that. What you are now doing is taking the information you made up and expanding on that to respond to the failure of a comment you originally made up.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Mon Jan 28, 2013 5:47 am

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 15):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):UA LAX-BWI JUN 1.0>1.8 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>1.8Quoting enilria (Thread starter):UA SFO-BWI JUN 1.0>1.8 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>1.8
I have a feeling BWI is definitely on the VX radar... Might as well start beefing up these routes now!

LAX-BWI, at least, has historically been 2x daily on UA--a morning departure and a redeye. It seems to yo-yo up and down a bit as UA moves toward more daily drawdowns, but when the dust settles, it usually winds up being 2x daily. It has nothing to do with VX.

And I highly doubt VX will start serving BWI anytime soon, and certainly NOT in lieu of IAD. All the hip moneyed techies who fly VX work out by Dulles. BWI is a revenue ghetto.
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RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Mon Jan 28, 2013 4:18 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 39):
The other point of view is that Frontier had to have an aircraft at CLE - not just for CLE-CUN/PUJ but that aircraft services PHL-CUN/PUJ and PIT-CUN/PUJ as well.
Quoting mariner (Reply 39):
Ferrying an empty aircraft DEN-CLE

If that was going on that was crazy. They could just flip the plane in the Caribbean and avoid that or ferry from MDW or something. That's a poor reason to fly a route.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 41):
All you are saying here is "I think this is what happened or should have happened so I'm gonna say this." Making up information...

If you have read everything I've posted over time and really don't think I have ties to people making those making those decisions then that is your opinion.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 41):
From what we know, WN serves BOS to be in Boston, not to make it into the next Denver or even close to that.

Never said that. I said that they are weak in both IAD and BOS. BOS-IAD would help build their point-of-sale strength, but the market is not so strong that they would be willing to attempt to push out B6 and they probably couldn't if B6 wanted to stay and fight.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 41):
What you are now doing is taking the information you made up and expanding on that to respond to the failure of a comment you originally made up.

Again, believe what you want...
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Mon Jan 28, 2013 4:29 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 43):
BOS-IAD would help build their point-of-sale strength

The only Boston-Washington Area flight they will operate is BWI-BOS unless something big changes. There is NO reason for them to operate BOS-IAD at this time or if B6 ends BOS-IAD.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Mon Jan 28, 2013 4:32 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 38):
The Air Asia JV with ANA is probably planning something.

Or any one of their other umpteen LCCs they're starting 
Quoting enilria (Reply 38):
WN is hopping mad that B6 grabbed BOS while they were f---ing around in MHT.

I don't know that they were mad, so much as acknowledging the LUV effect's last gasps. It's kinda hilarious, "flying to secondary cities has always worked before!" ...Until someone flies where people actually want to go. Whoops. Same could be said for ISP, or B6 at LGB...
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RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Mon Jan 28, 2013 4:49 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 43):
They could just flip the plane in the Caribbean and avoid that or ferry from MDW or something.

They are flipping from the Caribbean - that's how the aircraft gets to PHL, now that DEN-PHL is gone.

They are ferrying from MDW - all those flights at ORD. They ferry from CLE, too - PIT, e.g. And then there's CVG.

Quoting enilria (Reply 43):
That's a poor reason to fly a route.

I didn't expect you'd like it, you never do, but it seems to be working out quite well.  

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[Edited 2013-01-28 09:11:04]
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RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Mon Jan 28, 2013 5:10 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Only some of these flights showed up because of the minimum frequency cutoff
F9 MDW-TTN MAY 0>0.9 JUN 0>0.8
F9 RDU-TTN MAY 0>0.9 JUN 0>0.8

Why do we see a from -0- carried from the previous month (April in this case) into May and June when the inaugural service to both of these markets begins on April 8th and 9th?

I would think we would see some percentage even if it wa 0.4 carried forward from April even though the service is less than daily.
Man can be taken from Alaska. Alaska can never be taken from the man.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Mon Jan 28, 2013 5:26 pm

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 47):
Why do we see a from -0- carried from the previous month (April in this case) into May and June when the inaugural service to both of these markets begins on April 8th and 9th?

I believe it is based off of what was available in 2012. Not the best representation of things, but that is how he does his little report. Like the OKC-MEM service in the other thread shows going from 2 to 1 flights a day, even though the route started with 3 at the beginning of the year. So its not the best overall representation of month to month trends.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 1/25/2013: AA/AS/DL/UA

Mon Jan 28, 2013 6:20 pm

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 44):
Quoting enilria (Reply 43):
BOS-IAD would help build their point-of-sale strength

The only Boston-Washington Area flight they will operate is BWI-BOS unless something big changes. There is NO reason for them to operate BOS-IAD at this time or if B6 ends BOS-IAD.

BOS-BWI/IAD work fine if you don't have BOS-DCA and they won't get that any time soon. BWI/IAD overlap minimally.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 45):
I don't know that they were mad, so much as acknowledging the LUV effect's last gasps. It's kinda hilarious, "flying to secondary cities has always worked before!" ...Until someone flies where people actually want to go. Whoops. Same could be said for ISP, or B6 at LGB...

Secondary still works in Europe, but i guess the problem is that the cost to operate at BOS vs. MHT is not equal to the cost for people to get to MHT. I guess. Anyway, B6 grabbed BOS while WN/DL/AA/US were sleeping and they all begrudge it. WN got burned the worst as they were forced to add BOS to salvage their network in the area.

Quoting mariner (Reply 46):
They are ferrying from MDW - all those flights at ORD. They ferry from CLE, too - PIT, e.g. And then there's CVG.

USA3000 didn't ferry like that. The plane could do something like DEN-CUN-ORD-PUJ-CLE-CUN-DEN-CUN-PHL-CUN, etc etc etc. I don't know why they don't do that. Charters frequently have ferries, but they are highly unusual for scheduled service and these are effectively scheduled flights.

Quoting mariner (Reply 46):
I didn't expect you'd like it, you never do, but it seems to be working out quite well.

I guess if it carries one passenger it is better than a ferry, but it's still questionable to switch airports. They tried it in Houston too.

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 47):
Why do we see a from -0- carried from the previous month (April in this case) into May and June when the inaugural service to both of these markets begins on April 8th and 9th?

This keeps coming up. It's because for domestic services there is a minimum for service changes to prevent getting DL changing ATL-CHA from 8.1 to 7.8 and back to 8.0 every week. When you couple the mid-month start with the low frequency on these routes you are only getting a dozen operations for the whole month. It is below the minimum change. It shows for May because with those additional 9 days of operation it makes the minimum.

To fix that I'd have to double or triple the length of the report and show hundreds of lines of 6.1>5.9 changes.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 48):
I believe it is based off of what was available in 2012. Not the best representation of things, but that is how he does his little report. Like the OKC-MEM service in the other thread shows going from 2 to 1 flights a day, even though the route started with 3 at the beginning of the year. So its not the best overall representation of month to month trends.
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares what is for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

The answer is the first line of the FAQ that is the first line of this post.