PlaneHunter
Topic Author
Posts: 6512
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2006 3:17 am

Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 9:54 am

Interesting statements by Cathay Pacific CEO John Slosar:

http://www.aviationweek.com/Article....l/avd_02_01_2013_p03-01-543373.xml

I really hope the carrier will finally place a VLA order. Would be great to see both A380 and 748i in the fleet, but I guess that's unlikely...


PH
Nothing's worse than flying the same reg twice!
 
User avatar
NZ107
Posts: 4946
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 6:51 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 10:30 am

Quoting PlaneHunter (Thread starter):
Would be great to see both A380 and 748i in the fleet, but I guess that's unlikely...

Indeed.. Especially if the fleet is only going to be around 10-20. I don't really see them needing more than 20; at least to start with. Slosar has been publicly talking about this decision for at least a month, even if it has been widely known that CX has been interested in a VLA.
It's all about the destination AND the journey.
 
BlueSky1976
Posts: 1605
Joined: Tue Jul 20, 2004 9:18 am

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 10:31 am

I think they go for 747-8i, due to the commonality with their -8Fs, unfortunately.

Myself, I'd rather have them wait a few years and go for 777-9X. Forget ugly doubledeckers.
POLAND IS UNDER DICTATORSHIP. PLEASE SUPPORT COMMITTEE FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACY, K.O.D.
 
na
Posts: 9170
Joined: Sun Dec 12, 1999 3:52 am

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 10:42 am

Thanks for posting.

Quoting PlaneHunter (Thread starter):
I really hope the carrier will finally place a VLA order. Would be great to see both A380 and 748i in the fleet, but I guess that's unlikely...

I think LH is a great example to follow though the current school of me-too thinker smartasses in the airline fleet planning elsewhere makes it unlikely. LHs current fleet is the best in the world.

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 2):
Myself, I'd rather have them wait a few years and go for 777-9X. Forget ugly doubledeckers.

Thank god they are evaluating REAL big planes. Forget hideous overstretched boring tubes. I hope a 777-9X never sees the light of day as being longer than the already disproportioned 77W it would easily be the ugliest widebody ever.
Good to read that the 787 problems might delay a decision about the 777X (and therefore likely also the possible service entry) .
 
skipness1E
Posts: 3398
Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:18 am

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 10:49 am

Quoting na (Reply 3):
I think LH is a great example to follow though the current school of me-too thinker smartasses in the airline fleet planning elsewhere makes it unlikely. LHs current fleet is the best in the world.

So everyone who independently ran the numbers to see if the B747-8i was a good platform into the 2020s and said no is a fool except the airline of your home country? I am assuming you don't work in a discipline that demands a good business case before embarking on a multi billion dollar investment because your post is just fan-boyish. Is it so hard to show some respect to us "number crunchers"? Long hours and advanced maths seem to count for squat if it diesn't fit your favourite plane. Sorry but this sort of thing on here just bugs me as it over simplifies something that is rightly complex.

It's not based on how pretty the aircraft is, it really, really isn't. If it's the "best in the world", I wonder why they still have so many A346s. Still who needs to make money? Oh wait, Lufty do, which is why they're finally dumping short haul flying from non core assest to someone else.

[Edited 2013-02-01 02:50:37]
 
na
Posts: 9170
Joined: Sun Dec 12, 1999 3:52 am

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 10:56 am

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 4):
So everyone who independently ran the numbers to see if the B747-8i was a good platform into the 2020s and said no is a fool except the airline of your home country? I am assuming you don't work in a discipline that demands a good business case before embarking on a multi billion dollar investment because your post is just fan-boyish. Is it so hard to show some respect to us "number crunchers"? Long hours and advanced maths seem to count for squat if it diesn't fit your favourite plane. Sorry but this sort of thing on here just bugs me as it over simplifies something that is rightly complex.

It's not based on how pretty the aircraft is, it really, really isn't.

I thoroughly think that many decisions are not ONLY based that way, they are also based on what most of the competition does and the fear of an "own way". I am not a "number cruncher", certainly not, but I have met many in my long working life and what I said is the result of my experience with them. Of cause I know decisions arent made on prettyness, stupid to think so.
 
kaitak
Posts: 8969
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 1999 5:49 am

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 11:00 am

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 2):
I think they go for 747-8i, due to the commonality with their -8Fs, unfortunately.

I don't think it necessarily works like that; sure, commonality is important, but if the aircraft isn't right for the job, no amount of commonality is going to make a difference. The A380F has died a death, at least for the time being and even if it had not, the 747-8 is still better ... as a freighter.

However, as much as I love the 747, the reality is that it's at the end of the road. The A380, as ugly as it is, is at the beginning of its road. CX has expressed an interest in the -900 and is really only now coming around to the -800 due to MTOW improvements. I just can't see CX going for the 747-8i, especially as the 777-9X, once its launched, will kill it. I do believe CX will be a -9X customer, but that's a different day's debate.

As to numbers, I think we're easily going into double figures here, given the numbers of aircraft required to sustain a daily schedule, to places like LHR, SFO, LAX, JFK and YVR.
 
skipness1E
Posts: 3398
Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:18 am

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 11:03 am

Quoting na (Reply 5):
certainly not, but I have met many in my long working life and what I said is the result of my experience with them

It's a condescending term really, there's a huge difference between an accountant and a revenue analyst for instance.
Considering that the hard product is almost identical between the B777 and B747 and comparable to the A330/A340 across some fleets, I doubt Joe Public would notice. Most people don;t care what the aircraft type is nowadays so your argument that fleet planners just follow the crowd like lemmings over a cliff is not accurate. It is the quality of the soft and hard product that matters not the platform in which it is carried. Both BA and AA fly the B777 but BA has a better overall product (that may change with the new AA B77W). Indeed CX flies the B744 like PR but CX has a better product.

Again not the platform. There are a few people who find the B777 noisy but not enough to diminish the savings on using the twin over the quad. Business is all about numbers, knowing them, how to use them and being intelligent with them so that the main number does not become a sea of red ink. We most certainly do not count beans all day.

In this case there may be a good case for the B747-8i within Cathay as I suspect the A388 is a little big and they already operate a good sized fleet of the B747-8F. We shall see.
 
TC957
Posts: 2092
Joined: Wed May 23, 2012 1:12 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 11:07 am

I too think this is Boeing's to loose. They should get 748i's a couple of years sooner than A380's if need be and training and fleet intergration should be better with their 748F experience. CX will look for the ability to op non-stop to New York at max load as one important criteria I suspect.
 
shankly
Posts: 1199
Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2000 10:42 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 11:59 am

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 8):
It's a condescending term really, there's a huge difference between an accountant and a revenue analyst for instance.


skip. I think you are being a bit tough on na....I think he was merely inferring that LH have a good balance of aircraft for multi-roles, although to suggest it is the best in the world was a bit daft on his part

I think the reality of the world is that many airlines are suckered by the manufacturers sales teams and often end up with perhaps not the best planes that the bean counters would otherwise procure. Pride and vanity also play a huge amount in aircraft procurement, even for "proper" airlines....VS and the A380....need I say anymore?

Most of the airlines that fly similar high capacity long haul routes to CX, have gone A380, so one would assume the balance of favour is with that plane. The need to get the max out of each LHR and HKG movement is also a clear driver. But Boeing need a boost in spirit and 20 748i's on the books from CX would do that.

Mr Slosar did note that "the 747-8 freighters already operating in Cathay’s fleet “are operating very well as freighters.” Well, the Il-76 operates very well as a freighter.....

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 8):
Again not the platform


Disagree with you on this. The A380 has changed the quality of the cabin environment and this can be sold in the market as an extra to all the internal stuff
L1011 - P F M
 
skipness1E
Posts: 3398
Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:18 am

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 12:11 pm

Quoting shankly (Reply 10):
perhaps not the best planes that the bean counters would otherwise procure

Enough with "bean counters" please, we don't count beans, it makes hard working intelligent people sound like numpties. I agree that airlines are often blindsided by manufacturers sales teams but that's often very poor management who often don't understand the analysis that they are given, often because of the sheer amount of stuff that crosses their desk on a daily basis alas.

Quoting shankly (Reply 10):
The need to get the max out of each LHR and HKG movement is also a clear driver.

Good point but LHR has off peak too, the CX257 is an A343 sized rotation being flown by the B744 / B77W.

Quoting shankly (Reply 10):
The A380 has changed the quality of the cabin environment and this can be sold in the market as an extra to all the internal stuff

Interesting point, it has raised the game with the sheer amount of space available. Having said that, the B747-8i is no wider than the existing B747.
 
User avatar
anfromme
Posts: 774
Joined: Sun Feb 19, 2012 5:58 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 12:26 pm

Quoting TC957 (Reply 9):
I too think this is Boeing's to loose. They should get 748i's a couple of years sooner than A380's if need be and training and fleet intergration should be better with their 748F experience.

And yet, that didn't keep SQ from ordering 747-8F and still going with A380, even topping up their orders multiple times, and explicitly ruling out any role for the 747-8i in their fleet.
Similarly, BA are wet-leasing 747-8F, but decided to go for A380 for their pax fleet.

Just goes to show that operating 747-8F doesn't necessarily make a 747-8i purchase any more likely.
42
 
rutankrd
Posts: 2613
Joined: Mon Sep 08, 2003 6:08 am

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 12:37 pm

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 8):
In this case there may be a good case for the B747-8i within Cathay as I suspect the A388 is a little big and they already operate a good sized fleet of the B747-8F. We shall see.

Why do you say that ?

Especially since the consensus is that CX want something bigger in both long and tubular (A350 -1000 already ordered) and fat and egg shaped (A380 -900) ?

These VLAs are certainly for a very few high density routes aren't they ?

LHR/NRT in the main -both slot constrained and where boxes are sent via alternative dedicates.

So the 388IGW might just swing it - Or could they yet be the launch customer for the 389 ?
 
CXB77L
Posts: 2605
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:18 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 12:46 pm

Quoting PlaneHunter (Thread starter):
Interesting statements by Cathay Pacific CEO John Slosar:

Thanks for the link, PlaneHunter. Although I'm not sure if they're evaluating it "again" as it was widely speculated that they had been evaluating these aircraft for some time. The decision was due by last year, but I guess they needed more time. It would be nice to see the 747-8i in CX colours  

However, as they have been quite reluctant in ordering either the A380 or the 747-8i I do wonder if they'll end up with either aircraft at all.

Quoting na (Reply 3):
Forget hideous overstretched boring tubes. I hope a 777-9X never sees the light of day as being longer than the already disproportioned 77W it would easily be the ugliest widebody ever.
Good to read that the 787 problems might delay a decision about the 777X (and therefore likely also the possible service entry) .

This thread is not about the 777, it's about CX evaluating 747-8 and A380, and I'd thank you not to drag the 777 into this topic, especially if your sole intention is to bash it like you always do. It's getting old and tiring.  
Quoting skipness1E (Reply 8):
I doubt Joe Public would notice. Most people don;t care what the aircraft type is nowadays so your argument that fleet planners just follow the crowd like lemmings over a cliff is not accurate. It is the quality of the soft and hard product that matters not the platform in which it is carried.

        

The on board hard and soft product is what Joe Public would experience and base their fondness for the airline on that. I don't think the aircraft type matters as much to them as it obviously does to a.nutters like us.

Quoting shankly (Reply 10):
The A380 has changed the quality of the cabin environment and this can be sold in the market as an extra to all the internal stuff

I think part of that is due to the airlines putting their newest and most sophisticated hard product on board the A380 - to the point that some of the current A380 operators have hard product exclusive to the type: QF has F only on the A380, SQ's R class, EK's F class showers and business class seats etc.
Boeing 777 fanboy
 
jfk777
Posts: 5866
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 1:02 pm

Quoting shankly (Reply 10):
Most of the airlines that fly similar high capacity long haul routes to CX, have gone A380, so one would assume the balance of favour is with that plane. The need to get the max out of each LHR and HKG movement is also a clear driver. But Boeing need a boost in spirit and 20 748i's on the books from CX would do that

Even if Boeing "gave" Cathay 20 748i for "next to nothing" would it boast the program ? Probably not much. I could see Boeing doing a combination 748i and 777-9X deal where CX gets say 10 748i for 8-10 years leases and then gets the 777-9X when they are ready to be delivered.
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 13473
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 1:06 pm

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 8):
I suspect the A388 is a little big

Wait, you think the A388 is too big, yet CX is interested in the A389?   

With Asian traffic growth, the A388 is the only sensible answer IMHO. It offers further growth to the A389 whereas the 748i is never going to get any bigger.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
 
User avatar
EPA001
Posts: 3797
Joined: Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:13 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 1:13 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 18):
Wait, you think the A388 is too big, yet CX is interested in the A389?   

With Asian traffic growth, the A388 is the only sensible answer IMHO.

Totally agree with this. With CX as a possible customer the A380 is the favorite for me to win this comparison as well. The airframe is continuously improving and has much more growth and improvement potential then the B748i, which is as an airframe is at the end of it's life cycle. The A389 would be CX favorite for sure, but that version is yet to come. But I believe we will see it launched around 2015 with a possible EIS around 2020.  .
 
JerseyFlyer
Posts: 849
Joined: Fri May 25, 2007 7:24 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 1:29 pm

Quoting scouseflyer (Reply 13):
availability might help B

Allegedly there are 10 x relatively near-term A380 slots allocated to HK Airlines that may become available.
 
cmf
Posts: 3120
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2011 11:22 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 1:31 pm

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 4):
It's not based on how pretty the aircraft is, it really, really isn't. If it's the "best in the world", I wonder why they still have so many A346s. Still who needs to make money? Oh wait, Lufty do, which is why they're finally dumping short haul flying from non core assest to someone else.

For a "number cruncher" it is very easy to see why the A346 is best in the world at LH.
Don’t repeat earlier generations mistakes. Learn history for a better future.
 
CXB77L
Posts: 2605
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:18 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 1:43 pm

Quoting kaitak (Reply 6):
However, as much as I love the 747, the reality is that it's at the end of the road.
Quoting scbriml (Reply 18):
the 748i is never going to get any bigger.

I think that's a bit premature. While I agree that it is highly unlikely that there will be a further 747 derivative beyond the -8, Boeing did propose an 85m 747-600X back in the mid 1990s. I think that it is possible that there might be a further stretch in the future.

Quoting shankly (Reply 10):
Pride and vanity also play a huge amount in aircraft procurement, even for "proper" airlines....VS and the A380....need I say anymore?

I disagree. I think any well run airline would only choose an aircraft because it's the right aircraft for them, not because of any "pride" or "vanity". Any "prestige" that may or may not be associated with an aircraft should be discarded and the numbers examined dispassionately.

[Edited 2013-02-01 06:35:58]
Boeing 777 fanboy
 
User avatar
DarkSnowyNight
Posts: 1797
Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2012 7:59 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 1:50 pm

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 2):
Myself, I'd rather have them wait a few years and go for 777-9X. Forget ugly doubledeckers.

Brave thing to say here, lol...

I really do think the future belongs to big twins though. The 779x is probably the best choice for CX, but time will tell on this order...

Quoting na (Reply 3):

I think LH is a great example to follow though the current school of me-too thinker smartasses in the airline fleet planning elsewhere makes it unlikely. LHs current fleet is the best in the world.

I like that too. But I think DL's fleet isn't too bad either for the same reasons you like LH's...

Quoting kaitak (Reply 6):

I don't think it necessarily works like that; sure, commonality is important, but if the aircraft isn't right for the job, no amount of commonality is going to make a difference.

Yup. Especially when we're talking f's & i's.

Quoting kaitak (Reply 6):
I just can't see CX going for the 747-8i, especially as

I can see the 748i winning this bid, however, if it truly is just between that & the 388. Boeing won't give it away, but I think they'll get a huge break on delivery times vs the 388...

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 12):

Enough with "bean counters" please, we don't count beans, it makes hard working intelligent people sound like numpties.

Ok, I'll buy that. Those guys make sure we have jobs & don't go insolvent. I'd rather see more 77Ws, 787s, & 330/350s out there than 748is if it means better job security through decent product efficiency. VLA's look pretty, but the liability factor (for slow sales or weak routings) is tremendous. I for one totally respect decisions that take this into account, yes.

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 16):

However, as they have been quite reluctant in ordering either the A380 or the 747-8i I do wonder if they'll end up with either aircraft at all.

Personally, I hope they do not. We have enough 747s & 380s around for now. I think a capital airline like CX making their bread on 77W/E/As & A33Xs is actually pretty neat and makes them a little different, which is a good thing. If they can keep this going and make money, why not, right?
Be A Perfectionst, You're Nothing If You're Just Another; Something Material, This Isn't Personal...
 
User avatar
Richard28
Posts: 1622
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 5:42 am

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 2:00 pm

Quoting shankly (Reply 10):
Pride and vanity also play a huge amount in aircraft procurement, even for "proper" airlines....VS and the A380....need I say anymore?

I didagree. since VS ordered the A380, a lot of things have changed, most notably the Bermuda II agreemenet at LHR and the evolution of alliances.

Remember that the A380 was ordered on a 1 to 1 to replace the B744, so represented growth potential at a slot restricted airport.

yes a lot of marketing and hype surrounded the order, but there were some sound reasons to back it up at the time.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 14002
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 2:14 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 17):
Even if Boeing "gave" Cathay 20 748i for "next to nothing" would it boast the program ?

Not a great question to ask, since Boeing has been pretty clear that they are holding to a minimum amount of profit per 748 sold. Boeing has said that they have been asked to part with 748s for "next to nothing" and have said no.

The net import of this is that Boeing seems willing to slow down or shut down the 748 line if profitable sales don't appear.
Inspiration, move me brightly! Light the song with sense and color.
Hold away despair, more than this I will not ask.
Faced with mysteries dark and vast, statements just seem vain at last.
Some rise, some fall, some climb, to get to Terrapin!
 
User avatar
anfromme
Posts: 774
Joined: Sun Feb 19, 2012 5:58 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 2:16 pm

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 22):
I think that's a bt premature. While I agree that it is highly unlikely that there will be a further 747 derivative beyond the -8, Boeing did propose an 85m 747-600X back in the mid 1990s. I think that it is possible that there might be a further stretch in the future.

Sure, a lot of things are possible, and Boeing isn't ruling anything out. But it wouldn't really make much sense to go and do another re-hash of the 747 around 2020 given the limited success of the 747-8i and the cost involved in doing another stretch.
I certainly wouldn't place any bets on a further derivative seeing the light of day. The 747 airframe is IMHO at the end of its useful commercial development cycle, and it's a very slim chance that there is going to be a 747-9i. Compare that to the A380, which seems much more future-proof - much newer technology all around, more growth potential and a stretch being actively pitched by the manufacturer for an EIS around 2020.
42
 
User avatar
yellowtail
Posts: 3734
Joined: Fri Jun 17, 2005 3:46 am

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 2:20 pm

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 2):
I think they go for 747-8i, due to the commonality with their -8Fs, unfortunately.

IMHO, There are a few more "premium oriented" (vs volume) carriers that have watched LH and the 748 closely and seen the success they have ad with it.

CX is probably one of these airlines.

Their commonality with their freighters only is a plus.
When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
 
User avatar
anfromme
Posts: 774
Joined: Sun Feb 19, 2012 5:58 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 2:37 pm

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 27):
IMHO, There are a few more "premium oriented" (vs volume) carriers that have watched LH and the 748 closely and seen the success they have ad with it.

IMHO, There are a few more "premium oriented" (vs volume) carriers that have watched LH and the A380 closely and seen the success they have ad with it.

Sorry, couldn't resist   
42
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 14002
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 3:16 pm

Quoting Richard28 (Reply 24):
I didagree. since VS ordered the A380, a lot of things have changed, most notably the Bermuda II agreemenet at LHR and the evolution of alliances.

Remember that the A380 was ordered on a 1 to 1 to replace the B744, so represented growth potential at a slot restricted airport.

yes a lot of marketing and hype surrounded the order, but there were some sound reasons to back it up at the time.

Indeed it highlights why a lot of the "VLA optimists" were so wrong-headed at the time of the WhaleJet launch. They seemed to presume that the economy would only ever grow, that airlines would never consolidate, that alliances would never strengthen, that airport access would never improve, that airport efficiency would never improve, etc.

It seems they were taken in by the same "drug like rush" that Richard A ascribes to the fans of the DreamLemon.

However, the good news is we have cool new airplanes and their technology in our world, so bravo to the A380 and the 748 and 788, and too bad for the shareholders!
Inspiration, move me brightly! Light the song with sense and color.
Hold away despair, more than this I will not ask.
Faced with mysteries dark and vast, statements just seem vain at last.
Some rise, some fall, some climb, to get to Terrapin!
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23206
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 3:24 pm

Perhaps CX will order both?
 
cmf
Posts: 3120
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2011 11:22 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 3:34 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 29):
Indeed it highlights why a lot of the "VLA optimists" were so wrong-headed at the time of the WhaleJet launch. They seemed to presume that the economy would only ever grow, that airlines would never consolidate, that alliances would never strengthen, that airport access would never improve, that airport efficiency would never improve, etc.

Or they just think there are plenty enough times when demand is such that a single large plane is better than many small.
Don’t repeat earlier generations mistakes. Learn history for a better future.
 
behramjee
Posts: 4344
Joined: Sat Aug 02, 2003 4:56 am

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 3:41 pm

Keeping in mind that CXs current B744s seat 359 pax in a 4 class premium configuration, the B748 if ordered by CX would seat in the same layout a maximum of 410 seats aka 14% capacity increase which isnt much.

However an A380 in 4 classes can easily accommodate 480 passengers (Qantas like) which provides a 30% capacity increase versus CX's B744s and this is what they are after I reckon especially since it will enable more F/J class seats being fitted in resulting in higher yields en-route. CX's B744s currently have 9F and 46J and on the A380 it can easily be 12F + 66J if required.

The only area where the B748i holds an advantage over the A380 is the amount of cargo it can carry in its belly, but with such a large dedicated freighter fleet along with numerous B77Ws/A330s and A350s on order, if an A380 order does happen, the balance freight can easily be accommodated elsewhere on other flights operated by a different aircraft.
 
airlinebuilder
Posts: 203
Joined: Sun Nov 04, 2012 1:37 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 3:54 pm

this is going to be an AIRBUS WIN no doubt about it..... the era of the A380 has already began for quite some time. Lets just give to who truly deserves it, AIRBUS. Boeing particularly the B747 family now the B748i had it time and so far did not foresee the global demand or restricted airport slots and moving the most pax load and cargo all in one trip.
 
CXB77L
Posts: 2605
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:18 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 4:18 pm

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 23):
I really do think the future belongs to big twins though. The 779x is probably the best choice for CX, but time will tell on this order...

I agree with that. The days of quad engined jets are all but over, especially when advances in technology have allowed twins to grow both in size and in range.

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 23):
I can see the 748i winning this bid, however, if it truly is just between that & the 388.

I sincerely hope you are correct. I would like to see the 747-8i winning this bid, if only for selfish reasons. It would be nice of them to go against the trend. A CX 747-8i would look magnificent.



Nevertheless I'm sure that CX will only order the aircraft that's best for them, regardless of any illusory sense of "prestige" that may be attached to it by aviation enthusiasts.

Quoting anfromme (Reply 26):
I certainly wouldn't place any bets on a further derivative seeing the light of day.

Nor would I, but I'm just throwing it out there as a possibility. As Boeing have not officially announced that the -8 will be the final derivative of the 747, I would argue that to say such a derivative would "never" happen is jumping the gun a bit.
Boeing 777 fanboy
 
airlinebuilder
Posts: 203
Joined: Sun Nov 04, 2012 1:37 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 4:30 pm

I think Boeing really missed the train there when they ignored the concept of the double decker through and through including the acquired rights on the MD 12, they are just to proud to say that somehow AIRBUS made the right move this time on the VLA. World is round and what goes up must go down and so goes the nature of things.......
 
scottpilgrim
Posts: 24
Joined: Sun Jan 06, 2013 6:10 am

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 4:37 pm

Quoting behramjee (Reply 32):
Keeping in mind that CXs current B744s seat 359 pax in a 4 class premium configuration, the B748 if ordered by CX would seat in the same layout a maximum of 410 seats aka 14% capacity increase which isnt much.

However an A380 in 4 classes can easily accommodate 480 passengers (Qantas like) which provides a 30% capacity increase versus CX's B744s and this is what they are after I reckon especially since it will enable more F/J class seats being fitted in resulting in higher yields en-route. CX's B744s currently have 9F and 46J and on the A380 it can easily be 12F + 66J if required.

The only area where the B748i holds an advantage over the A380 is the amount of cargo it can carry in its belly, but with such a large dedicated freighter fleet along with numerous B77Ws/A330s and A350s on order, if an A380 order does happen, the balance freight can easily be accommodated elsewhere on other flights operated by a different aircraft.

Agreed, with the A380 CX can increase the number of seats available on high-yield flights without having to deal with slot restrictions at home and abroad. But didn't CX used to say they preferred frequency over capacity? Is this still their strategy for expansion? If so I'd say just a handful of A380s for increasing capacity while the 3rd runway is being built, as after completion they should be free to increase frequencies (except LHR).
 
kaitak
Posts: 8969
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 1999 5:49 am

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 4:40 pm

Quoting behramjee (Reply 32):
Keeping in mind that CXs current B744s seat 359 pax in a 4 class premium configuration, the B748 if ordered by CX would seat in the same layout a maximum of 410 seats aka 14% capacity increase which isnt much.

Yes, but the 744s are on their way out; the 77Ws seat only 275 in a four class layout, so that raises the question of how many pax the A380 would seat in this layout.

http://www.seatguru.com/airlines/Cat...fic_Airways_Boeing_777-300ER_A.php
 
A388
Posts: 7194
Joined: Mon May 21, 2001 3:48 am

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 5:27 pm

Quoting anfromme (Reply 14):
BA are wet-leasing 747-8F, but decided to go for A380 for their pax fleet.

Don't forget that BA's 748F's are not their own but from GSSS so that crew has no relation to BA. BA does nothing with these 748F's except lease them, no maintenance. The BA A388's, however, are BA's own, so they will have their own crew and everything else that comes with it.

I hope CX will go for the A380 (maybe the A380HGW is better for them?)  

A388
 
JHCRJ700
Posts: 215
Joined: Fri Oct 30, 2009 5:51 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 5:32 pm

Quoting na (Reply 5):
Quoting skipness1E (Reply 4):So everyone who independently ran the numbers to see if the B747-8i was a good platform into the 2020s and said no is a fool except the airline of your home country? I am assuming you don't work in a discipline that demands a good business case before embarking on a multi billion dollar investment because your post is just fan-boyish. Is it so hard to show some respect to us "number crunchers"? Long hours and advanced maths seem to count for squat if it diesn't fit your favourite plane. Sorry but this sort of thing on here just bugs me as it over simplifies something that is rightly complex.

It's not based on how pretty the aircraft is, it really, really isn't.

I thoroughly think that many decisions are not ONLY based that way, they are also based on what most of the competition does and the fear of an "own way". I am not a "number cruncher", certainly not, but I have met many in my long working life and what I said is the result of my experience with them. Of cause I know decisions arent made on prettyness, stupid to think so.

Read the book "Airbus vs. Boeing" There is definitely some number crunching going on, but a lot of times it all comes down to who is willing to give the better deal on new frames.
RUSH
 
User avatar
EPA001
Posts: 3797
Joined: Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:13 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 5:32 pm

Quoting A388 (Reply 38):
maybe the A380HGW is better for them?

They are likely to order the highest GW variant there is since payload and specifically cargo are very important to CX. That is if they would order the A380, but my guess is they will.  
 
MD-90
Posts: 7835
Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2000 12:45 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 6:02 pm

Quoting behramjee (Reply 32):
However an A380 in 4 classes can easily accommodate 480 passengers (Qantas like) which provides a 30% capacity increase versus CX's B744s and this is what they are after I reckon especially since it will enable more F/J class seats being fitted in resulting in higher yields en-route. CX's B744s currently have 9F and 46J and on the A380 it can easily be 12F + 66J if required.

14% more versus 30% is a big delta.

Cathay may not want 30% more capacity per flight at this time.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 14002
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 6:42 pm

Quoting airlinebuilder (Reply 33):
Lets just give to who truly deserves it, AIRBUS. Boeing particularly the B747 family now the B748i had it time and so far did not foresee the global demand or restricted airport slots and moving the most pax load and cargo all in one trip.

The truth is that the A380 is a money losing program and a lot of its sales are due to one customer that is using the airframe to pull away a lot of business away from a lot of other traditional Airbus and Boeing customers. It's pretty clear that SIA (the topic of this thread) is one of the customers suffering from the "Emirates Effect".
Inspiration, move me brightly! Light the song with sense and color.
Hold away despair, more than this I will not ask.
Faced with mysteries dark and vast, statements just seem vain at last.
Some rise, some fall, some climb, to get to Terrapin!
 
AustrianZRH
Posts: 852
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2007 5:55 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 7:13 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 42):
It's pretty clear that SIA (the topic of this thread) is one of the customers suffering from the "Emirates Effect".

Actually Cathay Pacific is the topic of this thread   . And SQ is suffering that much from the Emirates effect that they just upped their A380 order by 5 frames last October.
WARNING! The post above should be taken with a grain of salt! Furthermore, it may be slightly biased towards A.
 
User avatar
Heavierthanair
Posts: 840
Joined: Tue Oct 31, 2000 11:20 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 7:30 pm

G'day

Quoting Revelation (Reply 42):
the A380 is a money losing program and a lot of its sales are due to one customer

What a revelation. I do hope Airbus is aware of this danger to their very existence. Will Boeing or others be able to fill the void if the 'bus company ceases to exist?         


Cheers

Peter
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe." (Albert Einstein, 1879 - 1955)
 
goosebayguy
Posts: 555
Joined: Fri Sep 25, 2009 1:12 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 8:40 pm

I just love the way people think Airbus is losing money on the 380. Sure its investment needs to be repaid but it will make money. Does the same person think that Boeing are making money on their 748?
 
cmf
Posts: 3120
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2011 11:22 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 9:55 pm

Quoting JHCRJ700 (Reply 39):
Read the book "Airbus vs. Boeing" There is definitely some number crunching going on, but a lot of times it all comes down to who is willing to give the better deal on new frames.

i.e. number crunching
Don’t repeat earlier generations mistakes. Learn history for a better future.
 
jfk777
Posts: 5866
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 10:09 pm

Quoting Richard28 (Reply 24):
I didagree. since VS ordered the A380, a lot of things have changed, most notably the Bermuda II agreemenet at LHR and the evolution of alliances.

Remember that the A380 was ordered on a 1 to 1 to replace the B744, so represented growth potential at a slot restricted airport
Quoting Revelation (Reply 25):
Not a great question to ask, since Boeing has been pretty clear that they are holding to a minimum amount of profit per 748 sold. Boeing has said that they have been asked to part with 748s for "next to nothing" and have said no.

The net import of this is that Boeing seems willing to slow down or shut down the 748 line if profitable sales don't appear.

Not every airline asking for "net to nothing" 748 is Cathay, CX would be a great boost to the program.

[Edited 2013-02-01 14:11:38]
 
jfk777
Posts: 5866
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 10:14 pm

Quoting Richard28 (Reply 24):
Quoting shankly (Reply 10):
Pride and vanity also play a huge amount in aircraft procurement, even for "proper" airlines....VS and the A380....need I say anymore?

I didagree. since VS ordered the A380, a lot of things have changed, most notably the Bermuda II agreemenet at LHR and the evolution of alliances.

Remember that the A380 was ordered on a 1 to 1 to replace the B744, so represented growth potential at a slot restricted airport.

Virgin still needs the A380 for certain routes since LHR still has slot issues and no Bermuda 2 means more airlines are competing for an eve small available pool of slots. BA keeps adding every slot they can get their hand on, BMI was just their latest tasty meal.
 
User avatar
DolphinAir747
Posts: 1737
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2012 10:07 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 10:26 pm

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 8):
In this case there may be a good case for the B747-8i within Cathay as I suspect the A388 is a little big and they already operate a good sized fleet of the B747-8F. We shall see.

CX seems like the best airline currently to buy 747-8is for these reasons.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 14002
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 10:29 pm

Quoting AustrianZRH (Reply 43):
Actually Cathay Pacific is the topic of this thread

Oops! My bad...

Quoting goosebayguy (Reply 46):
I just love the way people think Airbus is losing money on the 380. Sure its investment needs to be repaid but it will make money.

According to the CEO it still costs more money to make an A380 than it brings in to the company, and this was before the cracked rib feet issue, so my statement stands even without considering the investment so far and the time value of money.

PS: Thanks for the love!

Quoting goosebayguy (Reply 46):
Does the same person think that Boeing are making money on their 748?

I think the answer is "no". The VLA/4-engine/double-decker space is an industry-wide disappointment.
Inspiration, move me brightly! Light the song with sense and color.
Hold away despair, more than this I will not ask.
Faced with mysteries dark and vast, statements just seem vain at last.
Some rise, some fall, some climb, to get to Terrapin!
 
cmf
Posts: 3120
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2011 11:22 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 10:54 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 53):
According to the CEO it still costs more money to make an A380 than it brings in to the company, and this was before the cracked rib feet issue, so my statement stands even without considering the investment so far and the time value of money.

As does manufacturing a 787. Difference is that the A380 deliveries are expected to be positive in 2015 (or is it 2014) and we have no idea when the 787 will do so. The 26 x 787 delivered thru Q3 2012 costed 14.275 BUSD more to manufacture than Boeing have taken as COGS. It is some three times more than the net income reported in the financials.

And I am not saying the 787 is a bad program.
Don’t repeat earlier generations mistakes. Learn history for a better future.
 
B2707SST
Posts: 1258
Joined: Wed Apr 23, 2003 5:25 am

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Fri Feb 01, 2013 11:03 pm

I expect the A380 will win this RFP, since the market seems to have taken a pass on the 747-8 (not that either is lighting the world on fire) and CX could probably use the extra seats on key routes like HKG-LHR that are constrained by time zones and receive several 744/77W flights over a short window. However...

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 19):
The airframe is continuously improving and has much more growth and improvement potential then the B748i, which is as an airframe is at the end of it's life cycle.

Frankly, this argument has never made a lot of sense to me, especially for an airline like CX that already operates 747-400s and -8Fs. Commonality cuts both ways: an A388 order now may open the door to better A388s and A389s in the future, but by that logic, the 748I door is already wide open since you've already added 744s and 748Fs. From a fleet management standpoint, CX could go through the significant cost of adding a new type now (the A388) and then save on potential derivatives (improved A388s and A389s) in the future, or they could add a very low-cost derivative now (the 748I) that builds on the existing 744/748F fleet, and then potentially add a new type in the future (A388/A389) if they want to. All else being equal, the finance people will tell you to push the bigger expense of a new type into the future, especially when it is not at all certain that the A389 will come to pass - it has been a persistent rumor since the days of the A3XX yet never seems to get any closer to launch.

And of course, the actual frames you receive don't really change no matter what future derivatives may appear - you might see a small bump in MTOW or an engine PIP, but an A388 built for CX in 2015 doesn't care much if an A389 appears in 2018. Maybe A388 residual value goes up if there's a bigger global fleet of A388s/A389s, but on the other hand, an A389 could clobber A388 values if it comes to be seen as the better aircraft, e.g. 772A was killed by 772ER and 773A was killed by 773ER.

Again, I'd bet on the A380 to win here, since it just seems like the better aircraft for most carriers as evidenced by the order tallies. But I doubt "growth potential" will be a key reason why.

-B2707SST
Keynes is dead and we are living in his long run.