iowaman
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New Frontier Part 41

Thu Feb 07, 2013 6:28 am

Due to length, please continue the discussion here.

Previous thread: New Frontier #40 (by iowaman Jan 1 2013 in Civil Aviation)
 
Jerseyguy
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Thu Feb 07, 2013 9:55 am

TTN should be careful spending major money but they NEED to do something about the non-existent bathroom after security and the potential overcrowding when F9 launches non-FL (or LA). If one flight gets delayed and another group comes for their flight there is going to be no room. They need to bring a trailer in use that for baggage claim and use the baggage claim area for security (obviously putting up walls to make things secure then they can take the waiting area and turn it into one big area. Hopefully the engineer will have some plans.
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F9Animal
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Thu Feb 07, 2013 10:09 am

Now that Siegel has kicked all of its remaining outstation workers to tbe curb... His next step is to slash throats in Denver. He is going for the pilots and flight attendants pay next. This mans history has repeated itself many times. He goes straight for the workers and drains them clean.

I wish the above and below wing employees had voted to be union. I know the anti union lovers will burn me for saying this..... But this is why it is so important for workers in the airlines to be union. Contracts help prevent Siegels of the world from just walking up and snatching your wallets out of your pocket.
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antoniemey
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Thu Feb 07, 2013 10:20 am

Quoting F9animal (Reply 2):
Contracts help prevent Siegels of the world from just walking up and snatching your wallets out of your pocket.

What threshold of flights do you expect a ticket/baggage agent contract would have required to keep mainline employees? Even in the most pro-labor contract imaginable, I doubt most F9 stations would reach that level.
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FRNT787
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Thu Feb 07, 2013 12:52 pm

Quoting F9animal (Reply 2):
He is going for the pilots and flight attendants pay next.

If that was the plan, then why didn't Bryan Bedford do that in 2011 during the major restructure?


And...it would seem quite the revisionist history to blame him for everything that happened at US Airways. He told the employees exactly what needed to happen. Their costs, including labor, were absolutely out of control. They didn't like hearing that, and he left.
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mariner
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Thu Feb 07, 2013 5:31 pm

January traffic:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fronti...eports-january-2013-172200875.html

"For the month, Frontier’s load factor increased by 7 points from January 2012 to a new January record of 87%.

Frontier’s traffic decreased 11%, to 0.8 billion revenue passenger miles (RPMs) on a 16% decrease in capacity to 0.9 billion available seat miles (ASMs). Frontier Airlines served 0.8 million passengers in January."


mariner
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Thu Feb 07, 2013 5:52 pm

A good article on CVG:

http://communitypress.cincinnati.com...er-survive-where-others-dared-fly-

"Can Frontier survive where others dared fly?

When Frontier Airlines launches operations at Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport this spring, it will be the latest low-cost carrier to give it a go here.

So will a low-cost carrier work here this time?"


Delta has responded, it has matched fares. It was planning to use an A320 on the route for the summer anyway, but has brought forward the start of that to early May and will be flying daily instead of 6 x weekly.

But - so far - that's it and I think Frontier can live with that sort of response and should have been expecting at least that.

Meanwhile:

"Frontier ticket bookings on the CVG-to-Denver flight are “very strong, somewhat ahead of expectations,” airline spokeswoman Kate O’Malley said."

mariner

[Edited 2013-02-07 10:19:08]
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rampart
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Thu Feb 07, 2013 7:30 pm

Quoting Jerseyguy in previous thread:

Quote:
For one thing TTN has twice the amount of people within a 35-40 minute drive.
Philadelphia and Newark are more crowded and delay prone than DEN.

[this regards my question about why TTN service should succeed while COS service did not]

I've seen that mentioned. I just found the FAA Regional Airspace Study, which delineates about 5 million in TTN's catchment of 9 counties. I can't find specifics, but I'm estimating the catchment for COS is something over 1 million. As far as catchments are concerned, an airport in less-dense Colorado should have a much larger catchment, with fewer airport choices. Trenton's designated catchment is generous, given some counties are closer to EWR or PHL. If I were similary generous about COS, I'd be able to include half of Denver's metro, so add another million, and another 200,000 for counties immediately south. Still, as you say, about half of TTNs.

True on the comparison to large, delay-prone airports. Another time factor is simple the big-airport time budget, needing more time to park and get through. Works for me, but not for passengers who would still elect to bypass the closer, more convenient airport.


Quoting FRNT787 from previous thread:

Quote:
The market overlap is a huge part of it in my opinion. TTN by default is an improvement because it doesn't have it.

Are you saying TTN won't have market overlap with PHL or EWR (or even ABE)? Unless I'm reading it wrong, I disagree.

-Rampart
 
GentFromAlaska
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Thu Feb 07, 2013 9:54 pm

F9 press release for the New England and mid Atlantic snow event this weekend. http://media.flyfrontier.com/article....cfm?article_id=5431&view_id=1290&
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freakyrat
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Thu Feb 07, 2013 10:54 pm

Frontier in CVG will probably get handled by DGS irregardless of Delta also flying to DEN on an A320.
 
FRNT787
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Fri Feb 08, 2013 5:19 am

Quoting rampart (Reply 7):
Are you saying TTN won't have market overlap with PHL or EWR (or even ABE)? Unless I'm reading it wrong, I disagree.

No. I am saying that it won't have the kind of overlap for F9 that COS did. Certainly the market there overlaps with PHL and EWR. F9 is able to serve those markets through TTN. COS, in my opinion, did not provide that oppurtunity. I do not deny market overlap, that's why ABE is going. I just see the impact of that overlap for F9 as different than COS
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n917me
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Sat Feb 09, 2013 9:03 pm

Ok..have to chime in... on the outsourcing conference call it was brought up that 60% of the stations are outsourced... but what wasnt brought up was the fact that of those 60% how many are seasonal or less than daily? Yes.. it makes sense to outsource the seasonal/less than daily, but not your daily year round cities. That 60% sounds good until you break it down.
 
smoot4208
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Sat Feb 09, 2013 9:30 pm

Quoting rampart (Reply 7):
Quote:
For one thing TTN has twice the amount of people within a 35-40 minute drive.
Philadelphia and Newark are more crowded and delay prone than DEN.

[this regards my question about why TTN service should succeed while COS service did not]

COS failed simply because airfares from DEN are so cheap, and significantly more destinations and frequencies are offered from there as well. The COS experiment was WestPac 2.0.

As for TTN, I think fares are already pretty low to Florida, especially from EWR. I think TTN will get more people from PHL than EWR. As for the non Florida cities, they chose destinations where there is no Low cost carrier service to/from PHL/EWR (save ATL) so the catchment area may be more balanced to both EWR and PHL.
 
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mariner
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Sat Feb 09, 2013 10:07 pm

Quoting n917me (Reply 11):
Ok..have to chime in... on the outsourcing conference call it was brought up that 60% of the stations are outsourced... but what wasnt brought up was the fact that of those 60% how many are seasonal or less than daily? Yes.. it makes sense to outsource the seasonal/less than daily, but not your daily year round cities. That 60% sounds good until you break it down.

I don't know why it doesn't make sense.

"Old" Frontier consistently lost money and despite the present profitability, Frontier's costs are still too high relative to its peer group - Allegiant and Spirit.

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Jerseyguy
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Sun Feb 10, 2013 6:13 am

Quoting rampart (Reply 7):

I just read a February 3rd editorial by Robert Prunetti, CEO of the Mid-Jersey Chamber of Commerce and he said there are 4 million people within a 40 minute drive of TTN. There is only 3 million people in the combined Denver Metro area and the Colorado Springs metro area.
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jetmatt777
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Sun Feb 10, 2013 6:18 am

Quoting freakyrat (Reply 9):
Frontier in CVG will probably get handled by DGS irregardless of Delta also flying to DEN on an A320.

Doesn't matter.

United had the Frontier-OKC contract for part of 2012. Despite both having flights departing minutes apart to Denver. Guess it's not a conflict of interest.
Lighten up while you still can, don't even try to understand, just find a place to make your stand and take it easy
 
Jerseyguy
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Sun Feb 10, 2013 3:05 pm

Has anyone else flown thru TTN? I am a bit anxious that once the new flights come in any delays could cause a bit of an issue with the overcrowding if people from more than one flight were to be in the airport before the gate area is expanded.
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GentFromAlaska
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Mon Feb 11, 2013 2:26 pm

DEN-FAI may see some additional people volume this year in that 2013 is the Centennial of the first mountain climbers to reach the south peak on Mt. McKinley (Denali) a.k.a.or the Great One in 1913.

http://juneauempire.com/state/2013-0...ark-denali-centennial#.URj6_GdkWEw

The launch date for the trek up the mountain is scheduled for June 7. Historically tourism and mountain climbing enthusiast visit the park to monitor the climbers progress and cheer them on as the climbers trek the tallest mountain in North America.
Man can be taken from Alaska. Alaska can never be taken from the man.
 
floridaflyboy
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Mon Feb 11, 2013 2:39 pm

Quoting freakyrat (Reply 9):
Frontier in CVG will probably get handled by DGS irregardless of Delta also flying to DEN on an A320.

Frontier in CVG is handled by mainline DL, not DGS.
Good goes around!
 
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enilria
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Mon Feb 11, 2013 3:21 pm

Quoting floridaflyboy (Reply 18):

Being handled by Delta is a very odd choice. Perhaps there was no other option. General rule is never to be handled by a nonstop competitor.
 
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mariner
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Mon Feb 11, 2013 5:26 pm

Connecting dots - DEN-GSO - 3 x weekly.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fronti...op-seasonal-between-170000943.html

Frontier Announces Nonstop Seasonal Service Between Denver and Greensboro Beginning May 1"

mariner
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kcrwflyer
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Mon Feb 11, 2013 5:32 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 20):
Connecting dots - DEN-GSO - 3 x weekly.

I like it, that makes sense. Two in a row. GSO is a big enough area to make that work, whether or not they market it properly is on them. RDU has N/S to DEN on WN I believe, so F9 setting up in GSO replicates what they've done in CLE and CVG.

If/when WN adds CLT-DEN, I'm interested to see what F9's response will be.
 
point2point
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Mon Feb 11, 2013 6:05 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 20):
Connecting dots - DEN-GSO - 3 x weekly.

There used to be a Carolina thread here, but haven't seen this pop up for a while. I would think that the AA/US merger would have a lot going on in that.

And going further here, there were a few posters on this Carolina thread that have been predicting this DEN-GSO route for about the last 4-5 years.......... and it looks as though they are finally correct with this. So............. where's the gloating? (  )

Anyways..... I personally think that this is a good route, especially for the folks around GSO. And even though GSO is sorta between RDU and CLT, I also personally think that the folks around there will be happy with F9 here, and this is a route that will grow as well with time.

Good luck to F9 and GSO............ and now time to impress that old saying of "use it or lose it."


 

[Edited 2013-02-11 10:06:21]
 
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mariner
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Mon Feb 11, 2013 6:16 pm

Quoting floridaflyboy (Reply 18):
Frontier in CVG is handled by mainline DL, not DGS.
Quoting enilria (Reply 19):
Being handled by Delta is a very odd choice.

As I suggested in another thread - Frontier's relationship with Delta "may" have changed. Others disagreed, of course.

Quoting kcrwflyer (Reply 21):
If/when WN adds CLT-DEN, I'm interested to see what F9's response will be.

I doubt that Frontier would respond to that, at least not directly. Silent Siegel's MO is to make whatever Southwest does - as far as is possible - irrelevant to what Frontier does.

mariner
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FRNT787
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Mon Feb 11, 2013 6:31 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 23):
As I suggested in another thread - Frontier's relationship with Delta "may" have changed. Others disagreed, of course.

Well, at the very least Republic's relationship with Delta certainly seems to have strengthened.

At the end of 2009, RAH operated 40 aircraft for DL. 24 E145s and 16 E175.

The next change was 2011, when they added 14 E170s to the total contract.

By the end of 2012, There was an addition of 7 E145s.

This year: RAH has agreed to provide two additional E145s through April. In April, they will add 8 more aircraft to the DL Chautauqua contract, and extend the contract on the aircraft added last year through the first half of 2014.

At the end of this year, RAH will operate 30 E Jets and 41 E145s.
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point2point
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Mon Feb 11, 2013 6:41 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 23):
Frontier's relationship with Delta "may" have changed.
Quoting FRNT787 (Reply 24):
Republic's relationship with Delta certainly seems to have strengthened.

Maybe it will end up DL as being some party in this anticipated F9 divestiture?

 
 
rampart
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Mon Feb 11, 2013 7:02 pm

Quoting smoot4208 (Reply 12):

COS failed simply because airfares from DEN are so cheap, and significantly more destinations and frequencies are offered from there as well. The COS experiment was WestPac 2.0.

No, WestPac 1.0 was a longer experiment. And it caved due to competition from and lure of... Frontier. I still maintain it might have persisted if it hadn't have gone bonkers with expansion. WestPac, that is.

I've come to believe that COS is not one of those places that can get by with charging a premium from which to travel. TTN may be the same. Used to be that alternative or secondary airports (think BUR, ONT, SWF) were places to find bargain airfares compared to the busy major airports. Lure people away with cheaper service. Isn't that what happens with Luton and Stanstead, or is that no longer the case, either? It's all about maximizing the margins, I know, but if a competitor airline figured out how to bleed a metro area in the other direction with volumes of cheaper travel, there would be money to be made. I think. In F9's case, maybe that's competing with themselves, in both DEN and PHL. But if it's the same air fare to the same places, shouldn't it be a wash for the airline, rather than a negative? And if it is the same, wouldn't it further develop a friendly following at the local, secondary airport? i.e. build a bigger market? You know, the Southwest Effect??   Someone's gotta do it now that WN isn't.

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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Mon Feb 11, 2013 7:33 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 23):
I doubt that Frontier would respond to that, at least not directly. Silent Siegel's MO is to make whatever Southwest does - as far as is possible - irrelevant to what Frontier does.

That why they're leaving DAY and CAK?
 
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Mon Feb 11, 2013 7:52 pm

Quoting kcrwflyer (Reply 27):
That why they're leaving DAY and CAK?

It isn't always what it seems. Both the moves consolidate Frontier operations - and connect the dots.

They have to have aircraft at both CLE and CVG for the CUN/PUJ flights - that aircraft also serves other CUN/PUJ routes such as PHL - and (the non-rev) flight DEN-CLE was expensive as well as a waste of aircraft time, especially given the constrained fleet.

Each is also a move to a primary airport. On a couple of flights in February, CLE-DEN has some of the highest one way fares in the system.

The bonus is that it removes them from direct competition with Southwest, helping to make whatever Southwest does - at CAK and DAY - irrelevant to Frontier.

Now - if Southwest ever starts DEN-CLE or DEN-CVG, it may be different, but that hasn't happened yet and they can make hay while the sun shines.

 

mariner

[Edited 2013-02-11 12:05:33]
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uncgso
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Tue Feb 12, 2013 6:19 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 20):
Connecting dots - DEN-GSO - 3 x weekly.

Good news! this has been a long time coming...now cmon Triad, support it!! also looks like PTAA want F9 to eventually open a focus city at GSO ... and still confused with the TTN-RDU route ... still think it shoulda been TTN-GSO fwiw
http://www.news-record.com/home/7307.../frontier-adding-direct-flights-to

Quoting point2point (Reply 22):
There used to be a Carolina thread here

yeah i miss those threads ...
 
planesarecool
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Tue Feb 12, 2013 7:24 am

There are 3 Frontier A319s outside the Aeroturbine hangar in Goodyear, the most recent of which arrived today. Are these being parted out/scrapped?
 
smoot4208
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Tue Feb 12, 2013 7:46 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 20):
Connecting dots - DEN-GSO - 3 x weekly.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fronti...op-seasonal-between-170000943.html

Frontier Announces Nonstop Seasonal Service Between Denver and Greensboro Beginning May 1"

mariner

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see DEN-COU as well. That would round out the MCO routes with all of them being connected to DEN. I don't count SHD as I highly doubt they'll be back there next fall.

I'd certainly be happy with DEN-COU/JNU/MSO to round out the summer schedule
 
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mariner
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Tue Feb 12, 2013 8:23 am

Quoting smoot4208 (Reply 31):
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see DEN-COU as well.

I wouldn't fall over in shock to see DEN-COU.

As to SHD, well - maybe. But the airport guy was right, the loads have been very good. I think there's a reasonable chance it may come back- hope so anyway.

Quoting smoot4208 (Reply 31):
I'd certainly be happy with DEN-COU/JNU/MSO to round out the summer schedule

I'm less keen on JNU - I think the traffic may be there, but I think Alaska would go NUCLEAR.

 

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n7371f
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Tue Feb 12, 2013 1:40 pm

Quoting planesarecool (Reply 30):
There are 3 Frontier A319s outside the Aeroturbine hangar in Goodyear, the most recent of which arrived today. Are these being parted out/scrapped?

At least one of them is going back. I believe 2 319's are going back in these upcoming months.

A used 319 from China just arrived in GYR as a replacement. It's being leased from CIT and has a line number around 1400.

Speaking of F9's 319 fleet, I was just on 905 the other day and boy is the interior showing a lot of ragged wear and tear. The overhead bins in particular need to be resurfaced.
 
GentFromAlaska
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Tue Feb 12, 2013 3:19 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 32):
I think Alaska would go NUCLEAR.

Of course they would but as a business are you going to run or hide from your potential foes. On the marketing side there are several ways to make JNU (Juneau) successful

F9 RNP certification you posted last week intrigues me. I know of four; possibly five airports in the U.S. capable of using the technology which to my understanding there is also a ground component (receivers I think) DCA, SFO, PSP, JNU and maybe RNO (why I don't know) F9 already flies to three of the 4/5 airports and has done so for awhile be it seasonal or daily.

If you are trying to reduce cost it seems to me you wouldn't certify crews without an intent on using it. Although its not as expensive as it was 12-15 years ago at some $800,000.00 per airframe.

Maybe DEN-MSO-RNO. If memory serves me F9 flew to RNO a few years ago which wasn't the greatest. JNU would be the perfect Alaska Trifecta if F9 plays their cards smartly.

[Edited 2013-02-12 07:43:36]
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GentFromAlaska
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Tue Feb 12, 2013 5:05 pm

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 34):
I know of four; possibly five airports in the U.S. capable of using the technology which to my understanding there is also a ground component (receivers I think) DCA, SFO, PSP, JNU and maybe RNO

It appears a several more airports are RNP capable since the last time I looked. Courtesy Honeywell http://www.mygdc.com/attachment/cpsf...AR_Deep_Dive_HON_Ops_Conf_2012.pdf Page 13 of this document show 97 airports in the U.S. and several foreign. On Page 14 TTN is planned for RNP.
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kcrwflyer
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Tue Feb 12, 2013 5:55 pm

So by reacting to Southwest, they have positioned themselves to not have to react to Southwest anymore. Clever.

Quoting mariner (Reply 32):
As to SHD, well - maybe. But the airport guy was right, the loads have been very good.

What does good mean? Numbers please if you have them. I see that route on sale frequently.


Here's what I don't understand about SHD. They run MCO fall-spring. I always see people talking about MCO being a fall-spring destination......

So here's my question.. Is my market some sort of an enigma where the vast majority of people and families vacation in the summer?
 
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mariner
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Tue Feb 12, 2013 6:22 pm

Quoting kcrwflyer (Reply 36):
So by reacting to Southwest, they have positioned themselves to not have to react to Southwest anymore. Clever.

If you count CAK to CLE and DAY to CVG as a reaction to Southwest then - yes. I guess.

I note that even with the presence of Airtran on DEN-CAK for half the year, Frontier still had very respectable numbers at CAK for 2012

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/akr...ssenger-record-in-2012-2013-01-29:

"Akron-Canton Airport sets all-time passenger record in 2012.....Frontier Airlines grew seven percent with 199,400 passengers;"

But it is (or was) a battle of the low fare airlines and it ceases to be a battle if one side removes itself from the fray. It's a process, it's been going on for some time and it will (hopefully) continue. Both CLE and CVG are a consolidation.

Quoting kcrwflyer (Reply 36):
What does good mean? Numbers please if you have them. I see that route on sale frequently.

It means what the airport guy in SHD said:

http://www.newsleader.com/article/20...-halt-service-April?nclick_check=1

"“The community response has been strong,” said Campbell on Friday morning. “The flights have been doing very well. This morning’s flight was full. Most of the flights seem to be full or very full.”

From what I've seen he was right, but that doesn't address yield (too many low fares?) and that may be problem - the planes may be full only because of the low fares.

All it shows is that the airport can attract the pax - which was an unknown at the start of the season.

But I don't think it is an untoward move. Many of the snowbird routes - Florida and South of the Border - end in April, and so I am hopeful that SHD may come back next winter.

mariner
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smoot4208
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Tue Feb 12, 2013 6:51 pm

http://www.farebuzz.com/blog/post/20...onal-airport-to-orlando-route.aspx

Kate O' Malley states that there was a huge lack of demand on the route.

Airport directors always say demand eas strong. To them, a 75% load factor would be strong. To F9, 75% is aweful.
 
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mariner
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Tue Feb 12, 2013 6:57 pm

Quoting smoot4208 (Reply 38):
Kate O' Malley states that there was a huge lack of demand on the route.

She said a wee bit more than that:

"Kate O’Malley, spokeswomen for Frontier Airlines said that Frontier airline flight between Shenandoah Valley and Orlando will be discontinued during the summer season.

She further said that the airline has not yet decided if they will resume their services again during the winter season."


If there was such a lack of demand, why is there any question abut the return? Drop it - permanently - it now. Frontier isn't usually shy about that.

I don't know - I trust the airline to fly the planes where they can make the most money.

mariner

[Edited 2013-02-12 11:06:35]
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kcrwflyer
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Tue Feb 12, 2013 7:24 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 37):
I note that even with the presence of Airtran on DEN-CAK for half the year, Frontier still had very respectable numbers at CAK for 2012

Agreed. Which is why I don't understand how a 2x daily station that was strong for years suddenly isn't as good as 4x weekly to CLE.

Quoting mariner (Reply 37):
It means what the airport guy in SHD said:

http://www.newsleader.com/article/20...-halt-service-April?nclick_check=1

"%u201CThe community response has been strong,%u201D said Campbell on Friday morning. %u201CThe flights have been doing very well. This morning%u2019s flight was full. Most of the flights seem to be full or very full.%u201D

From what I've seen he was right, but that doesn't address yield (too many low fares?) and that may be problem - the planes may be full only because of the low fares.

I'd have to call that lip service. SHD is a great little EAS airport, super facility. He may have thought the first flight was full, which I read had 100ish passengers.

Quoting mariner (Reply 39):
I don't know - I trust the airline to fly the planes where they can make the most money.

Can't say F9 doesn't try.

Quoting mariner (Reply 39):
If there was such a lack of demand, why is there any question abut the return? Drop it - permanently - it now. Frontier isn't usually shy about that.

More lip service. Not wise to tell them they're never coming back while they have a few more months of flights they'd prefer didn't tank.
 
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mariner
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Tue Feb 12, 2013 7:44 pm

Quoting kcrwflyer (Reply 40):
Agreed. Which is why I don't understand how a 2x daily station that was strong for years suddenly isn't as good as 4x weekly to CLE.

It's a process, a quite complex and really quite sophisticated dance.

It began when Silent Siegel took over a year ago and an essential part of the restructure was fleet discipline - removing quite a large number of aircraft from the fleet and not replacing them until the airline had stabilised. This meant that frequencies had to reduced, which had the bonus of (in several cases) improving yield.

This meant they had to do as much as they could with less and in that process, that year, Siegel has turned the airline around financially.

This ain't "old" money losing Frontier, but there is still some way to go. The airline needs to be making about $50 million a year profit before it starts to generate cash - which is the key to attracting investors.

Now that the airline has stabilised, we are looking at aircraft coming in again, but even that is rigidly disciplined. Originally, the first aircraft coming in was to be an A320, but TTN - A319's - changed that. Last I heard, N954FR was coming in late April or May, but that may have changed, as reported here:

Quoting n7371f (Reply 33):
A used 319 from China just arrived in GYR as a replacement. It's being leased from CIT and has a line number around 1400.

So even my sources may not be up to date. Robert Ashcroft has said that the schedule extension has been delayed by these fleet decisions, but since it will be published this week-end, i guess they've all been resolved.

Quoting kcrwflyer (Reply 40):
I'd have to call that lip service.
Quoting kcrwflyer (Reply 40):
More lip service.

Okay, as you will. I like SHD, I love the area, I thought it was a good choice. I'd like to think (hope?) it could make the cut next winter, but if it doesn't, I'm a big boy.

mariner

[Edited 2013-02-12 11:54:55]
aeternum nauta
 
GentFromAlaska
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Tue Feb 12, 2013 9:27 pm

Quoting smoot4208 (Reply 38):

"said that Frontier airline flights between Shenandoah Valley and Orlando will be discontinued during the summer season".

If you are familiar with the Discover Channel television series Moonshiners. That region of Appalachia is brewing the recipe. There busy across the Summer. They got no time for MCO vacations
Man can be taken from Alaska. Alaska can never be taken from the man.
 
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Wed Feb 13, 2013 3:25 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 41):

Quoting kcrwflyer (Reply 40):
I'd have to call that lip service.
Quoting kcrwflyer (Reply 40):
More lip service.

Okay, as you will. I like SHD, I love the area, I thought it was a good choice. I'd like to think (hope?) it could make the cut next winter, but if it doesn't, I'm a big boy.

It was telling that when the service started, they had already made the decision to only guarantee service until April while COU never had an end date. To me that means bookings were under-performing for the Winter.

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 34):
Maybe DEN-MSO-RNO. If memory serves me F9 flew to RNO a few years ago which wasn't the greatest. JNU would be the perfect Alaska Trifecta if F9 plays their cards smartly.

I'm not sure why you seem fascinated with tag routes. Outside of EAS, it just doesn't make sense domestically like it may have 20 years ago. F9 will determine if MSO is feasible based on MSO alone. Tag routes add so little value, especially to a place like DEN. Someone can easily go RNO-DEN nonstop and for very cheap. MSO-RNO would lose boat loads of money.
 
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Wed Feb 13, 2013 4:00 am

Quoting smoot4208 (Reply 43):
I'm not sure why you seem fascinated with tag routes


In economics it is generally understood as two for the price of one. Several carriers still think quite highly of tag markets and they do seem to work. Maybe not in a ULCC model. I'm not convinced of that as of yet.

Where brand loyalty enters the equation; the here today gone tomorrow mentality doesn't resonate well with the public. Thus I think the DEN-MDW-TTN route is an attempt to try something different; which I applaud.

I threw RNO out there solely because it was a potential RNP airport and one of the four or five I knew about until I started digging into it a little more based on F9 recent RNP certification.

[Edited 2013-02-12 20:04:24]
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Wed Feb 13, 2013 4:54 am

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 44):
Several carriers still think quite highly of tag markets and they do seem to work.


Where domestically is this the case? In Alaska it might work simply because people don't have a choice.

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 44):
Where brand loyalty enters the equation; the here today gone tomorrow mentality doesn't resonate well with the public. Thus I think the DEN-MDW-TTN route is an attempt to try something different; which I applaud.

They'd be stupid to not allow connections in MDW because it's the same airplane. This is the case for two reasons:

1. F9 wants to serve TTN-MDW
2. TTN-DEN physically isn't possible.

F9 learned the hard way with tags like they originally had in the mid 90s up in Montana/North Dakota.

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 44):
In economics it is generally understood as two for the price of one.

That works internationally as in say SIN-NRT-EWR, where the cost to serve SIN-EWR nonstop is no longer feasible. However, domestically, everywhere is reachable to another domestic city without needing a tag. Also
 
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Wed Feb 13, 2013 3:29 pm

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 42):
If you are familiar with the Discover Channel television series Moonshiners. That region of Appalachia is brewing the recipe. There busy across the Summer. They got no time for MCO vacations

Those guys don't even know what an airplane is.

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 44):
In economics it is generally understood as two for the price of one. Several carriers still think quite highly of tag markets and they do seem to work.

I understand your perspective, but when you're talking about flights, there is a cost to intentionally running a tag route. Ground handling has a cost. Adding a landing, ground turn, and takeoff is far less efficient than remaining airborne. I'm sure F9 would prefer to fill every leg of their flights on O&D if possible. WN will run thru flights out of DAL until they don't have to, but they have been cutting out many of the shorter routes that were originally added as stops along the "bus route" so to speak.

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 44):
I threw RNO out there solely because it was a potential RNP airport and one of the four or five I knew about until I started digging into it a little more based on F9 recent RNP certification.

RNP isn't a reason to fly somewhere. No navigational aid will generate demand in a market.
 
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Wed Feb 13, 2013 3:55 pm

Quoting smoot4208 (Reply 45):
Where domestically is this the case?

Tag has two meanings in my mind; one stop with no change of aircraft and or one or more flights meet at a micro hub (for lack of a better term) which allows for the transfer of passengers. Dare I say WN runs many tag flights all day every day the last time I checked. BNA-MDW-PVD; and BWI-MDW-OKC-LAS-BOI-PDX for two.

Quoting smoot4208 (Reply 45):
They'd be stupid to not allow connections in MDW because it's the same airplane

We agree; it's still a tag route. Without looking at F9 schedule and if memory serves me another F9 flight from another city also converges in MDW which allow those pax to connect to the MDW-TTN and or MDW-DEN segment.

Quoting smoot4208 (Reply 45):
TTN-DEN physically isn't possible.

Has that been determined? I've read several post about TTN 6000' runway and the required fuel (by weight) when combined with pax and weight in the cargo hold(s). Someone mentioned its not a runway vs. airframe weight issue as we think of it. He said he suspects it's more of a FAA restriction in that TTN sits directly below the busiest air corridor (NYC center traffic) almost at the point where north to south and east to west traffic is segregated. I tend to believe he may be onto something because DEN-TTN is doable (by weight) but TTN-DEN is not (supposedly) I think of all the open airspace around DEN (usually) Thus F9 opts for the MDW tag. Not that its a bad; it is economics though and I'll take two cities for the price of one all day every day. Chicago can and I hope will support it.

The arm chair rocket scientist in me doesn't put much weight in the runway length vs. weight issue. Although there are valid concerns I have personally witnessed a U-S-A-F C-5A Galaxy (2nd largest airframe in the world) land and take off out of JNU on several occasions. It used every inch of runway and four engines but she lifted out between mountain ranges at that.
Man can be taken from Alaska. Alaska can never be taken from the man.
 
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Wed Feb 13, 2013 4:49 pm

Quoting kcrwflyer (Reply 46):
Those guys don't even know what an airplane is.

I saw one episode where one of Appalachia's finest suspected a pilot-less plane or ATF drone flying above his his hooch! I originally thought he may have sampled the recipe one time to many.
Man can be taken from Alaska. Alaska can never be taken from the man.
 
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RE: New Frontier Part 41

Wed Feb 13, 2013 4:58 pm

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 47):
Quoting smoot4208 (Reply 45):They'd be stupid to not allow connections in MDW because it's the same airplane
We agree; it's still a tag route.

I think the difference, as you suggest, is that MDW might offer limited connections. It's also "midway" between TTN and DEN, which is another way to say "on the way". Finally, DEN-MDW and TTN-MDW are hub and spoke routes of sorts, like UA flying say ORD-OKC-IAH.

DEN-MSO-RNO would not seem to fit any of those criteria.

I do think JNU-BLI is an interesting, if unlikely, idea, and DEN-JNU is gutsy - what was Mariner calling routes a few years ago that had "pizzaz" or something? Ultimately, though, unless you can get someone in route planning to really sit down and focus on just those optons, I doubt they'd even make the initial cut - there are just so many more places that offer more opportunities, fewer costs, and less chance of AS going postal. IMHO.

-Dave
-Dave