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AA/US Impact On JFK

Thu Feb 07, 2013 3:29 pm

*IF* AA and US combine, and PHL's role becomes domestic and international hub and JFK's role focuses on O&D, what impact will that have on space requirements for T8?
 
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STT757
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RE: AA/US Impact On JFK

Thu Feb 07, 2013 3:34 pm

Quoting questions (Thread starter):
what impact will that have on space requirements for T8?

Pretty much nothing will change, the only thing that's going to change at T-8 is if or when BA moves to T-8 from T-7.
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flyguy1
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RE: AA/US Impact On JFK

Thu Feb 07, 2013 4:04 pm

Us air A330s will arrive at JFK.
727, L1011, MD80, A300, 777-200, 737-300, 737-700, 747-400, 757-200, 737-800, A320. E190, E135, 767-200, CRJ9
 
flyinghippo
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RE: AA/US Impact On JFK

Thu Feb 07, 2013 4:12 pm

Quoting questions (Thread starter):
PHL's role becomes domestic and international hub

Why would PHL be the international hub when AA has a international gateway out of JFK? Also, NYC has a much bigger international traveler population than PHL.
 
NYCAAer
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RE: AA/US Impact On JFK

Thu Feb 07, 2013 4:23 pm

AA-US would be crazy to downsize JFK in favor of PHL. Although PHL offers more connectivity as a hub, JFK/NYC is one of the top 5 markets in the world for premium first class and business class seats sold. AA has been concentrating on higher-yielding business markets and reducing flying in less profitable or money-losing markets. Yes, AA has dropped some routes from JFK- BRU, SDQ, STI, MBJ, AUA, PUJ, etc. But they are also going after markets with more potential for greater revenue- a second daily GRU, 77Ws on LHR, and in recent years have added MAD, MAN, BCN, MXP, DUB and returned to GIG.
 
MesaFlyGuy
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RE: AA/US Impact On JFK

Thu Feb 07, 2013 4:31 pm

I am really hoping thI really hope this merger does not happen, but if it is I can't wait to see more US aircraft at JFK. With US assumably moving to T8 and BA eventually moving over, what will happen to T7? It is really a nice terminal and I would hate to see it abandoned.
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panampaul
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RE: AA/US Impact On JFK

Thu Feb 07, 2013 4:35 pm

I don't see JFK getting downsized; in fact I think PHL will become of secondary importance (but good as a nearby backup).

This is especially true because of connecting oneworld traffic, I would imagine.

Semi-related to this, there are two good FAQs online addressing some related questions

American-US Airways Merger: What Frequent Fliers Need to Know

and

What an American-US Airways Deal Would Mean for Fliers (link not coming through in my post for some reason but it's in the WSJ)
 
silentbob
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RE: AA/US Impact On JFK

Thu Feb 07, 2013 5:05 pm

Quoting flyinghippo (Reply 3):
Why would PHL be the international hub when AA has a international gateway out of JFK? Also, NYC has a much bigger international traveler population than PHL.

There is very little competition for the international traffic out of PHL, so it generates a premium for many of the markets served. JFK has significantly more competition for that larger base of travelers. Being the biggest fish in a slightly smaller pond is often extremely profitable.

You will see flights to/from JFK that support the O/D passengers, just like you do from PHL. Connecting passengers from upstate NY and northward will be funneled through JFK and passengers from south of SYR will be funneled through PHL while anyone south of VA will be sent through CLT.
 
flyinghippo
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RE: AA/US Impact On JFK

Thu Feb 07, 2013 5:21 pm

Quoting silentbob (Reply 7):
There is very little competition for the international traffic out of PHL, so it generates a premium for many of the markets served. JFK has significantly more competition for that larger base of travelers. Being the biggest fish in a slightly smaller pond is often extremely profitable.

You will see flights to/from JFK that support the O/D passengers, just like you do from PHL. Connecting passengers from upstate NY and northward will be funneled through JFK and passengers from south of SYR will be funneled through PHL while anyone south of VA will be sent through CLT.

I still don't see that... what's the point of connecting international travelers via PHL when you already have a decent international presence in JFK? If you're flying on AA from a secondary market to LHR, AA doesn't have to worry about competition from DL at JFK since the traveler is already on a AA flight, regardless if it's being connected via JFK or PHL. (Unless the traveler REALLY wants to fly only on DL, then it won't matter either if the traveler is connecting via JFK or PHL)

I see PHL continue to have direct flights to major international destinations such as LHR, but to cities such as CDG, MAD, they will route through JFK.
 
deltaflyertoo
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RE: AA/US Impact On JFK

Thu Feb 07, 2013 5:23 pm

Quoting flyinghippo (Reply 3):

Why would PHL be the international hub when AA has a international gateway out of JFK? Also, NYC has a much bigger international traveler population than PHL

Just to add to silentbob's above post, in addition to what he stated, AA is also physically constrained at JFK by both slots and gate space. So even if lets say they were the only fish in the sea of NYC O&D with existing infrastructure it would be difficult. So yeah, that said they are probably going to be status quo.

My question is do they make money at JFK. If they do, let it be, but I've always wondered if it maybe best to pull JFK down esp if merger goes through. Its my perception that the LAX/JFK transcons are one sided (i.e. its the LA crowd that demands it but they don't get much on the other end originating in NY to LA).
 
davescj
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RE: AA/US Impact On JFK

Thu Feb 07, 2013 5:54 pm

In any merger, PHL would be of lesser importance than JFK. Let's be realistic.

JFK would probably pick up some flights to Europe. I would expect as well BA/AA anti-trust may move some metal into PHL.

DL would have a chance to add a few flights to PHL as AA right sizes the market.

Dave
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RL757PVD
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RE: AA/US Impact On JFK

Thu Feb 07, 2013 6:16 pm

I think you will see PHL remain a key domestic hub, but some international shift to JFK.

Delta manages to operate 2 hubs in NYC Domestic LGA, International JFK and I think AA will closely resemble that with a greater domestic component to PHL though some international will remain to major destinations, some of the more tertiary markets like LIS and GLA may shift.
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davescj
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RE: AA/US Impact On JFK

Thu Feb 07, 2013 6:26 pm

Quoting RL757PVD (Reply 11):
elta manages to operate 2 hubs in NYC Domestic LGA, International JFK

DL also does the PHL CDG (this week). With AA (merged) shifting some flights to JFK, do you think other JV could be added? I'm thinking PHL - AMS for example.

Dave
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commavia
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RE: AA/US Impact On JFK

Thu Feb 07, 2013 6:33 pm

Quoting davescj (Reply 10):
In any merger, PHL would be of lesser importance than JFK. Let's be realistic.

I just don't see how you figure. I'm not sure why people still seem to see this as an "either-or," when if done right, it could - and should - be a "both."

Quoting davescj (Reply 10):
DL would have a chance to add a few flights to PHL as AA right sizes the market.

I doubt it. I don't know why a "new AA" would substantially reduce Atlantic flying at PHL, and even if they did, why that would somehow open up any major opportunity for DL.

Quoting RL757PVD (Reply 11):
Delta manages to operate 2 hubs in NYC Domestic LGA, International JFK and I think AA will closely resemble that with a greater domestic component to PHL though some international will remain to major destinations, some of the more tertiary markets like LIS and GLA may shift.

DL operates two "hubs" in NYC because they have slots at both airports sufficient to do so. AA doesn't, and won't - with or without a merger. But, as I said, AA post-merger wouldn't need to, as it would have a far superior set up just down I-95. PHL isn't nearly as large a local market as NYC, but it is still huge, and it's one that US dominates. Plus, unlike DL's NYC "hub" setup, PHL is an actual megahub that handles both domestic and international traffic, in all directions, throughout the day. DL doesn't have that at JFK/LGA and never will because of the facility/slot limitations and market dynamics.
 
justplanenutz
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RE: AA/US Impact On JFK

Thu Feb 07, 2013 6:38 pm

Quoting flyguy1 (Reply 2):
Us air A330s will arrive at JFK.

I would think the opposite--AA 77E's moving out of JFK would be more likely than US 330s coming in.

JFK would serve premium 3-class O&D routes with 77W's, 787s and 321 trancons. An interesting question is how AA will configure the 788 and 789s; 2-class, 3-class or both?

PHL would serve 2-class connecting routes with high-density 77Es and 330s. Given that they would serve different purposes, there could be a fair amount of overlap.

[Edited 2013-02-07 10:59:39]
 
point2point
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RE: AA/US Impact On JFK

Thu Feb 07, 2013 6:44 pm

Quoting NYCAAer (Reply 4):
AA-US would be crazy to downsize JFK in favor of PHL.
Quoting silentbob (Reply 7):
There is very little competition for the international traffic out of PHL, so it generates a premium for many of the markets served.

I think that PHL will go depending on what their airport managers do there in terms of the renovations and improvements that they want to make at their airport. IIRC, from another thread here a bit back, the fact is that these renovations and improvements were estimated to raise the CPE to somewhere around $32, in which case it would by far make probably it the costliest airport in the U.S., then most carriers would avoid it like the plague. PHL currently experiences it's own version of air traffic hell at times, and even though there is a good O&D there and little competition on most routes, I remember that US went ballistics when these renovations and improvements were announced, and basically stated that PHL would become unworkable for them. I would think that the new AA/US would feel the same way.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 1):
Pretty much nothing will change, the only thing that's going to change at T-8 is if or when BA moves to T-8 from T-7.

Probably so.... there may be some tweaks, upgauges, etc, but JFK is slot restricted. Other than the tweaks and upgauges, the only option that new AA/US can really have here is reducing flights if they so choose, which I don't think that they're going to do. However, will be interesting to watch if the PHL managers do proceed with the full breadth of renovations and improvements that they intended, and how aggressive the new AA/US will be in wanting to acquire slots at JFK.


 



[Edited 2013-02-07 10:57:57]
 
apodino
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RE: AA/US Impact On JFK

Thu Feb 07, 2013 6:53 pm

One problem I see with JFK is you don't gain that many slots from US in a merger. Because of that, you are going to need a ton of local O and D to make any new international flight work. JFK does have that. But given the current infastructure and slot situation, you are not going to be able to route a lot of connecting passengers through JFK to connect to the Int'l flights. So while I see JFK gaining a few international flights (TLV is obvious assuming the TW issues can be worked out), the merged carrier is still going to have to rely on PHL for a lot of connecting traffic to some of the smaller destinations (GLA, MAN, etc.).

One other thing this makes me curious about. Presumably this merger, coupled with BA's desires at JFK will probably lead to a T8 buildout, and of course US is going to end up in T8 and BA will move there in the near future (I have heard 2015 for this, which is when BA's T7 lease expires). What does this mean for the future of T7? UA only has PS to SFO and LAX as well as RJ service to IAD left. ANA is the other big carrier left in T7. Could we see a couple of T4 carriers moved to free up room for DL? This will be interesting to watch.
 
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STT757
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RE: AA/US Impact On JFK

Thu Feb 07, 2013 7:21 pm

Quoting apodino (Reply 16):
UA only has PS to SFO and LAX as well as RJ service to IAD left. ANA is the other big carrier left in T7. Could we see a couple of T4 carriers moved to free up room for DL? This will be interesting to watch.

VX probably.
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usairways85
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RE: AA/US Impact On JFK

Thu Feb 07, 2013 7:32 pm

I don't understand how people think JFK is going to become this 500 flt/day mega hub for the new carrier.

Quoting justplanenutz (Reply 14):
I would think the opposite--AA 77E's moving out of JFK would be more likely than US 330s coming in.

JFK would serve premium 3-class O&D routes with 77W's, 787s and 321 trancons. An interesting question is how AA will configure the 788 and 789s; 2-class, 3-class or both?

PHL would serve 2-class connecting routes with high-density 77Es and 330s. Given that they would serve different purposes, there could be a fair amount of overlap.

JFK may see some of US' smaller A330s to fly routes that previously haven't worked for AA and PHL may see 777s to places like LHR and MAD that become more important routes than they are now
 
commavia
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RE: AA/US Impact On JFK

Thu Feb 07, 2013 8:29 pm

Quoting justplanenutz (Reply 14):
I would think the opposite--AA 77E's moving out of JFK would be more likely than US 330s coming in.

I think probably some of both. I could see 2-class AA 777s on PHL/CLT-LHR, plus maybe 1 or 2 other PHL-Europe routes, and US A330s on lots of AA routes such as JFK-CDG, JFK-FCO, JFK-BCN, MIA-BCN, etc.

Quoting apodino (Reply 16):
One problem I see with JFK is you don't gain that many slots from US in a merger.

At JFK and LGA, the key benefit of a merger wouldn't be more slots, but the ability to better utilize them.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 18):
I don't understand how people think JFK is going to become this 500 flt/day mega hub for the new carrier.

It won't be a 500-flight megahub. That will never happen.
 
HPRamper
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RE: AA/US Impact On JFK

Thu Feb 07, 2013 8:33 pm

Quoting flyinghippo (Reply 3):
Why would PHL be the international hub when AA has a international gateway out of JFK? Also, NYC has a much bigger international traveler population than PHL.

AA really only serves NYC out of JFK. PHL serves the entire rest of the country which is indeed a far larger market than NYC.

Quoting flyinghippo (Reply 8):
I still don't see that... what's the point of connecting international travelers via PHL when you already have a decent international presence in JFK?

You can indeed do both.

Quoting davescj (Reply 10):
In any merger, PHL would be of lesser importance than JFK. Let's be realistic.

That is a completely unrealistic opinion.

Quoting commavia (Reply 13):
I just don't see how you figure. I'm not sure why people still seem to see this as an "either-or," when if done right, it could - and should - be a "both."

   Well-put, as usual.
 
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cosyr
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RE: AA/US Impact On JFK

Thu Feb 07, 2013 10:34 pm

My dream would be if PHL would eventually become an O&D city in general. Not having the unnecessary connecting traffic there could really ease conditions between NYC and DC. If traffic would drop enough, I know it will still be considered one airspace due to the proximity of so many airports, but maybe DC won't have the domino effect from NYC, or vice versa.

I'm more curious about what will happen to DCA. I bet one of the condisions by DOJ/DOT would be to give up some DCA slots.
 
usairways85
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RE: AA/US Impact On JFK

Thu Feb 07, 2013 11:05 pm

Quoting cosyr (Reply 21):
My dream would be if PHL would eventually become an O&D city in general. Not having the unnecessary connecting traffic there could really ease conditions between NYC and DC. If traffic would drop enough, I know it will still be considered one airspace due to the proximity of so many airports, but maybe DC won't have the domino effect from NYC, or vice versa.

Taking PHL out of the Northeast JFK/LGA/EWR/TEB/PHL/BWI/DCA/IAD equation will do little to ease air traffic congestion
 
jayunited
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RE: AA/US Impact On JFK

Thu Feb 07, 2013 11:11 pm

I think the impact on JFK all depends on how many slots AA is still holding on to. Over the past few years AA's presence at JFK has been shrinking but I think that if this merger goes through AA will look to take on Delta at JFK and United in the over all New York market. While PHL will always be an important market it will never be JFK and if American has held on to some of their unused slots we might see some resources shifted away from PHL in favor of JFK. I think the years of AA reducing service at JFK are over and if this merger goes through AA will want to increase their service at JFK.

I know US Airways enthusiast will disagree with my view but AA is itching to roar back into the JFK market. But to do this they are going to need airplanes and since most of the airplanes AA has on order are supposed to replace older aircraft they are going to need airplanes US Airways will supply them with the aircraft at the expense of PHL. But as I said before I still think PHL will be a very important HUB in their network.
 
Freshside3
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RE: AA/US Impact On JFK

Thu Feb 07, 2013 11:12 pm

I suspect that EWR will be down to a small select amount of flights, much like the UA operation at JFK. Though slightly larger than UA/JFK.

[Edited 2013-02-07 15:15:37]
 
flyby519
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RE: AA/US Impact On JFK

Thu Feb 07, 2013 11:27 pm

Quoting FreshSide3 (Reply 24):

I suspect that EWR will be down to a small select amount of flights, much like the UA operation at JFK. Though slightly larger than UA/JFK.

  

As evident by AA recently giving VX some slots and gates at EWR
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dirtyfrankd
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RE: AA/US Impact On JFK

Thu Feb 07, 2013 11:37 pm

What effect would the merger have on LGA? I've seen on this forum that US still has many unused slots at LGA, is that true? Would a merger allow the new carrier to grow its presence at LGA?
 
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IrishAyes
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RE: AA/US Impact On JFK

Fri Feb 08, 2013 12:23 am

Quoting dirtyfrankd (Reply 26):
What effect would the merger have on LGA? I've seen on this forum that US still has many unused slots at LGA, is that true? Would a merger allow the new carrier to grow its presence at LGA?

DL and US swapped their slots between LGA and DCA, a strategic and profitable move that is already paying major dividends towards revenue performance for both carriers.

As was mentioned on the other thread, the AA-US merger will allow AA to concentrate NYC into a heavily O&D-focused market, as opposed to a connecting/feeder hub out of both slot-controlled airports. LGA will be developed to enrich the domestic O&D markets (such as DFW/ORD/MIA etc) and I'm sure we'll also see some of the E-170s also sent in its direction.
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panampaul
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RE: AA/US Impact On JFK

Fri Feb 08, 2013 12:32 am

Quoting justplanenutz (Reply 14):
An interesting question is how AA will configure the 788 and 789s; 2-class, 3-class or both?

If AA follows the pattern of other 787 operators, it will be business, premium economy, and economy.

Today, the question is really "3 class or 4" given premium economy as a completely separate product for some airlines.

So my guess is 3, but 3 not including first class.
 
MAH4546
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RE: AA/US Impact On JFK

Fri Feb 08, 2013 12:33 am

Quoting flyby519 (Reply 25):
Quoting FreshSide3 (Reply 24):

I suspect that EWR will be down to a small select amount of flights, much like the UA operation at JFK. Though slightly larger than UA/JFK.



As evident by AA recently giving VX some slots and gates at EWR

All but one which were unused. I don't see much shrinking at EWR.
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GSPFlyer
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RE: AA/US Impact On JFK

Fri Feb 08, 2013 12:34 am

Don't see too much happening at PHL/JFK, other than;

Larger equipment/more frequency between PHL and OW hubs, such as LHR, MAD, to take advantage of connections at both ends.

Some of AA's International configured 757's at PHL to serve smaller destinations in Europe.

JFK will keep doing what it's doing. If US management is in charge, they may try to open new routes in Europe from JFK.

Like others said, PHL has the domestic network and very little competition, while JFK has strong O&D. They can coexist.
 
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IrishAyes
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RE: AA/US Impact On JFK

Fri Feb 08, 2013 1:04 am

Quoting PanAmPaul (Reply 28):
If AA follows the pattern of other 787 operators, it will be business, premium economy, and economy.

If memory serves me correctly, the AA 787s will indeed feature the new First product.

Quoting PanAmPaul (Reply 28):
Today, the question is really "3 class or 4" given premium economy as a completely separate product for some airlines.

I agree, the inconsistency is annoying. However, per US standards, I think premium economy is lumped with regular economy (versus international airlines that counts it as a separate class).
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jc2354
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RE: AA/US Impact On JFK

Fri Feb 08, 2013 2:09 am

Quoting commavia (Reply 13):
I just don't see how you figure. I'm not sure why people still seem to see this as an "either-or," when if done right, it could - and should - be a "both."
Quoting GSPflyer (Reply 30):
Like others said, PHL has the domestic network and very little competition, while JFK has strong O&D. They can coexist.

Couldn't agree more. Although they are very close in distance, they serve completely different markets. Hopefully, they will recognize the jewel at JFK, and upgrade/improve inflight services (meals, seating, etc.). Of more concern, what will they do with PHX?

Jack
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jetblueguy22
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RE: AA/US Impact On JFK

Fri Feb 08, 2013 3:21 am

Please continue the conversation in the master thread AA/US Merger Impact Master Thread (by jetblueguy22 Feb 7 2013 in Civil Aviation)
Blue
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