SInGAPORE_AIR
Topic Author
Posts: 11619
Joined: Mon Nov 13, 2000 4:06 am

Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Sun Feb 10, 2013 12:01 pm

In recent years London City Airport (LCY) has seen passenger growth from 2.4m in 2006 to 3.0m in 2012, a CAGR of c. +4%.

In the past few years we have seen the recent increases in service such as inter alia: (i) British Airways' London City service; (ii) increased CityJet presence offering a greater range of European and domestic routes; (iii) the introduction of more frequent SWISS services to GVA and ZRH; and (iv) British Airways making a base there for its Cityflyer and associated Embraer fleet.

As per the 2006 Masterplan they were supposed to achieve 3.5m passengers per annum by 2015. However, this appears overly-lofty given that they only managed 3.0m in 2012 and their passenger growth appears very closely correlated to UK GDP, the short-term outlook of which appears sluggish at best.

Nevertheless, the airport seems to be upgrading its infrastructure with a new Western pier featuring new gate and lounge facilities and accommodating Bombardier CSeries-sized aircraft from 2016.

LCY also seems to have capacity to continue to act as spillover given the lack of London-area runway policy from this and most likely subsequent governments.

What's happening with BA's LCY-JFK service given I've seen that the Shannon stopvover will be ceasing due to US immigration issues ?

It would be interesting to hear the views of forum members with regards to the outlook for LCY.
Anyone can fly, only the best Soar.
 
AIR MALTA
Posts: 1733
Joined: Mon Sep 17, 2001 6:45 am

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Sun Feb 10, 2013 12:36 pm

I really don't know what the future holds for LCY but I think that Business routes have reached their peak. BA has tried CPH, GVA, WAW, DUB and they failed. ARN is so so as the route is not operating in July and August. Bucket and Spade have flourished. CityJet is struggling with its route network serving many 2nd tier French and German destinations after loosing ground to BA on many other routes.
Next flights : BRU-ZRH-CAI (LX)/ BRU-FCO-TLV (AZ)
 
skywaymanaz
Posts: 640
Joined: Sun May 06, 2012 1:00 pm

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Sun Feb 10, 2013 1:20 pm

Quoting SInGAPORE_AIR (Thread starter):
What's happening with BA's LCY-JFK service given I've seen that the Shannon stopvover will be ceasing due to US immigration issues ?

The rumor was the hours were getting cut for US Customs at SNN from 7a-7p to 7a-4p. That would affect the second LCY-SNN-JFK flight of the day. I can't seem to find anything definitive on it one way or the other but they still seem to be on longer scheduled for now.
 
PlymSpotter
Posts: 10016
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2004 7:32 am

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Sun Feb 10, 2013 1:49 pm

They are going to focus on increasing the average aircraft size, most likely by increasing the minimum passenger service charge upwards towards the 50-70 seat mark, which in turn will drive passenger numbers. To do this they need more than just four new stands and ideally a parallel taxiway, hence the significant expansion and stand replacement planned. Only the four new stands can accommodate the next generation of aircraft (C Series, E-Jet NG etc...), so it really is essential that they get these built. Aside of operating costs, the C Series looks to have up to double the ERJ 190's useful range from LCY, although no doubt the next gen E-Jets will also see major improvements, so these are the aircraft of the future and need to be accommodated. They will also be quieter which should allow for more physical movements using LCY's quota system.


Dan  
...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
 
seansasLCY
Posts: 712
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2007 5:25 am

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Sun Feb 10, 2013 2:45 pm

As far as I know the original plan to build the new pier has been cancelled. The airport is going to invest £15m in the current stands while looking at what they can do to make the airport stands compatible for the C-Series.
 
MHG
Posts: 725
Joined: Mon Dec 13, 2004 1:33 am

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Sun Feb 10, 2013 4:58 pm

Quoting SInGAPORE_AIR (Thread starter):

It would be interesting to hear the views of forum members with regards to the outlook for LCY.

Wouldn´t a stop in DUB make sense despite the possibly slightly longer ground time there?
Can´t imagine the added (2nd leg) distance would make it a no-go ...

... or do US Customs at DUB finish work early as well ?
I miss the sound of rolls royce darts and speys
 
User avatar
readytotaxi
Posts: 3326
Joined: Mon Dec 11, 2006 2:09 am

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Sun Feb 10, 2013 5:15 pm

If the LCY-JFK route is a money maker for BA I feel sure they could come to some arrangement with the US government over labour cost at Shannon.
you don't get a second chance to make a first impression!
 
SInGAPORE_AIR
Topic Author
Posts: 11619
Joined: Mon Nov 13, 2000 4:06 am

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Sun Feb 10, 2013 7:06 pm

Quoting AIR MALTA (Reply 1):
Quoting skywaymanaz (Reply 2):
Quoting seansasLCY (Reply 4):

Many thanks.

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 3):
Aside of operating costs, the C Series looks to have up to double the ERJ 190's useful range from LCY

Thanks - looking at the CSeries order book though no carriers apart from SWISS with 30x seem relevant to LCY. I don't suppose there's any visibility about potential CSeries services exLCY ? I note BA Cityflyer no longer has any aircraft deliveries in the pipeline.
Anyone can fly, only the best Soar.
 
User avatar
AmricanShamrok
Posts: 1809
Joined: Fri May 09, 2008 2:03 pm

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Sun Feb 10, 2013 7:27 pm

Quoting SInGAPORE_AIR (Thread starter):
What's happening with BA's LCY-JFK service given I've seen that the Shannon stopvover will be ceasing due to US immigration issues ?
Quoting skywaymanaz (Reply 2):
The rumor was the hours were getting cut for US Customs at SNN from 7a-7p to 7a-4p. That would affect the second LCY-SNN-JFK flight of the day. I can't seem to find anything definitive on it one way or the other but they still seem to be on longer scheduled for now

The reduced USCBP work hours have been in effect from the beginning of the winter season (end of October) and flight BA3 still operates as normal. I don't know if passengers are still made disembark at SNN or not (presumably not as it is solely a refuelling stop now). The stopover time is shorter than BA1 though for obvious reasons.

Quoting MHG (Reply 5):
Wouldn´t a stop in DUB make sense despite the possibly slightly longer ground time there?
Can´t imagine the added (2nd leg) distance would make it a no-go ...

... or do US Customs at DUB finish work early as well ?

DUB preclearance also closes 16:00 too, if not earlier.
 
phofmannsair
Posts: 44
Joined: Wed Jan 26, 2005 5:28 am

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Sun Feb 10, 2013 8:20 pm

Quote:
Thanks - looking at the CSeries order book though no carriers apart from SWISS with 30x seem relevant to LCY. I don't suppose there's any visibility about potential CSeries services exLCY ? I note BA Cityflyer no longer has any aircraft deliveries in the pipeline.

You forgot to add PrivatAir in that list. They ordered 5 (+5 options) CS100
Bombardier press release and they're rumoured to operate those aircraft on behalf of Odyssey (new airline which would be based in LCY) Odyssey

By the way, does anyone have any new about this new airline?
 
PlymSpotter
Posts: 10016
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2004 7:32 am

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Sun Feb 10, 2013 8:49 pm

Quoting seansasLCY (Reply 4):
As far as I know the original plan to build the new pier has been cancelled. The airport is going to invest £15m in the current stands while looking at what they can do to make the airport stands compatible for the C-Series.

Very interesting, I had not heard that. The original stands cannot be modified accommodate the CS100 and meet regulations; its tail is too high and will penetrate airspace surfaces, so they must be confident of getting a dispensation. Although I'd love to know how an aircraft with a 35m span is going to self maneuver on a 28m x 40m stand - that will be good to watch!

Quoting SInGAPORE_AIR (Reply 7):
Thanks - looking at the CSeries order book though no carriers apart from SWISS with 30x seem relevant to LCY. I don't suppose there's any visibility about potential CSeries services exLCY ? I note BA Cityflyer no longer has any aircraft deliveries in the pipeline.

My view is that ultimately CityFlyer will replace both the A318 and ERJs with the CS100, and CS300, if it proves to be capable of LCY operations.

Quoting phofmannsair (Reply 9):
By the way, does anyone have any new about this new airline?

I have heard it mentioned that they are one of the parties interested in CityJet - not from one of my more reliable sources though, so take it with a pinch of salt.


Dan  
...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
 
seansasLCY
Posts: 712
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2007 5:25 am

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Sun Feb 10, 2013 10:03 pm

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 10):
Very interesting, I had not heard that. The original stands cannot be modified accommodate the CS100 and meet regulations; its tail is too high and will penetrate airspace surfaces, so they must be confident of getting a dispensation. Although I'd love to know how an aircraft with a 35m span is going to self maneuver on a 28m x 40m stand - that will be good to watch!

I believe some form of expansion will take place but they are looking at how to best use the space and at least additional cost.

LCY have regular meetings with Bombardier regarding the C-Series so I would imagine a solution will be found.
 
phofmannsair
Posts: 44
Joined: Wed Jan 26, 2005 5:28 am

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Sun Feb 10, 2013 10:11 pm

Quote:
I have heard it mentioned that they are one of the parties interested in CityJet - not from one of my more reliable sources though, so take it with a pinch of salt.

This is very interesting! Do they have a website already?
 
Wingtips56
Posts: 752
Joined: Thu Dec 16, 2010 1:26 am

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Sun Feb 10, 2013 10:18 pm

I've not been to LCY, yet, so I don't have an image of how big it is or isn't. But, how much room for expansion is there? I ask because I read the other day that BA had to cancel both of the JFK flights due to the blizzard ... there wasn't room for both 318s to park.
"British Airways A318 G-EUNB Positions to London Gatwick.
February 8, 2013
British Airways A318 G-EUNB positioned London City – London Gatwick this afternoon as BA9158. With both A318s at London City due to the New York weather cancellations today, space was required at London City for the afternoon peak."

The aircraft returned to LCY late this afternoon.
Worked for WestAir, Apollo Airways, Desert Pacific, Western, AirCal and American Airlines
 
seansasLCY
Posts: 712
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2007 5:25 am

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Sun Feb 10, 2013 10:27 pm

Quoting Wingtips56 (Reply 13):

I've not been to LCY, yet, so I don't have an image of how big it is or isn't. But, how much room for expansion is there?

Any future expansion would involve further building over part of the dock. The proposals can be seen here
http://www.londoncityairport.com/con...ecial_Edition_%20December_2011.pdf


http://www.londoncityairport.com/AboutAndCorporate/page/ASRP

This page on the website states that "The airport is now working on a new project proposal – the City Airport Development Programme (link to CADP copy) – which builds on the ASRP and provides the enhanced facilities that will allow LCY to maintain its position as the business traveller’s airport of choice"

These are the new plans which haven't yet been made clear.
 
vfw614
Posts: 3171
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2001 12:34 am

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Sun Feb 10, 2013 10:47 pm

Much will depend on the fate of Cityjet. If they disappear, LCY is heading towards a risky BA Cityflyer monopoly. All other of the few airlines serving LCY - with the exception of Swiss with three destinations - only have a token presence nowadays with just one route (Skywork, Luxair, Blue Islands, Lufthansa, Alitalia).

My feeling is that given the fact that flights from LCY are more expensive than from other LON airports, the airport has reached its peak. A lot of destinations have been tried in the past three or so years but were unprofitable.

Another issue is that LCY traditionally had a strong focus on shorter cross-channel routes. These have already disappeared (e.g. BRU) or are under pressure from the High Speed Trains (AMS, RTM, ANR, PAR).
 
SInGAPORE_AIR
Topic Author
Posts: 11619
Joined: Mon Nov 13, 2000 4:06 am

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Sun Feb 10, 2013 11:06 pm

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 15):
Much will depend on the fate of Cityjet.

Agreed. Irish news reports indicate that 2 preferred bidders will be reached in the next few weeks. An exit from Skyteam affiliation may lead to pax reduction. If AF can't sell it then it'll most likely be downsized given the losses it's incurring which is bad for LCY.
Anyone can fly, only the best Soar.
 
PlymSpotter
Posts: 10016
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2004 7:32 am

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Sun Feb 10, 2013 11:36 pm

Quoting seansasLCY (Reply 11):
I believe some form of expansion will take place but they are looking at how to best use the space and at least additional cost.
Quoting seansasLCY (Reply 14):
Any future expansion would involve further building over part of the dock. The proposals can be seen here
http://www.londoncityairport.com/con...ecial_Edition_%20December_2011.pdf


http://www.londoncityairport.com/AboutAndCorporate/page/ASRP

This page on the website states that "The airport is now working on a new project proposal – the City Airport Development Programme (link to CADP copy) – which builds on the ASRP and provides the enhanced facilities that will allow LCY to maintain its position as the business traveller’s airport of choice"

These are the new plans which haven't yet been made clear.

The latter are the plans I was aware of, which is for seven new stands and essentially a new terminal building to handle the increased passenger throughput. Stand wise, not much has changed really from the original replacement program plan:

http://www.londoncityairport.com/con.../City_Airport_Development_Plan.pdf

Quoting phofmannsair (Reply 12):
This is very interesting! Do they have a website already?

Not that I am aware of.

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 15):
My feeling is that given the fact that flights from LCY are more expensive than from other LON airports, the airport has reached its peak. A lot of destinations have been tried in the past three or so years but were unprofitable.

The expense depends on the individual airline's model, the key is that the operation must be managed correctly for the type of airport LCY is. Get that wrong and it all goes wrong much more quickly than at a regular airport. I don't think the destination turnover is abnormal though.


Dan  
...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
 
skipness1E
Posts: 3398
Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:18 am

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Mon Feb 11, 2013 12:45 am

Quoting SInGAPORE_AIR (Thread starter):
What's happening with BA's LCY-JFK service given I've seen that the Shannon stopvover will be ceasing due to US immigration issues ?

Continues as normal with BA003 clearing customs and immigration at JFK.

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 10):
its tail is too high and will penetrate airspace surfaces,

What does this mean? 3000ft on QNH is the minimum altitude before you can have any impact on Heathrow inbounds. Is the fin really that big? Blimey,

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 15):

My feeling is that given the fact that flights from LCY are more expensive than from other LON airports, the airport has reached its peak.

They have exchanged smaller niche flights for more mainstream destinations. Growth in recent years has been driven by BA who have gone from ten RJ100s on set up to 6 ER7s and 8 ER9s, a much more capable fleet. Add in two based mainline A318s and you see why the little guys moved out. It's certainly not peaked, the numbers do not back that up.

However, every major legacy has had a go. SAS tried and failed with ARN and CPH, OS tried and failed with VIE, LH tried DUS, HAM, STR MUC etc etc leaving only FRA remaining. We have also seen Darwn on Basle, EuroManx on IOM, Aer Arann also on IOM BA on DUB, CPH, LYS, MXP, FlyBabboo on Geneva and WAW and Air Southwest on PLH/NQY. All been and gone in recent years. The key growth is on BA routes with bigger aircraft and longer jaunts to the sun, the survival or otherwise of WX will be a deciding factor in whether this continues.

[Edited 2013-02-10 17:28:29]
 
Viscount724
Posts: 19056
Joined: Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:32 pm

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Mon Feb 11, 2013 12:50 am

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 18):
Quoting SInGAPORE_AIR (Thread starter):
What's happening with BA's LCY-JFK service given I've seen that the Shannon stopvover will be ceasing due to US immigration issues ?

Continues as normal with BA003 clearing customs and immigration at JFK.

Excerpt from BA website since last October:
http://www.britishairways.com/travel/cwlconarrival/public/en_ch

Arriving at New York JFK

Clearing US immigration at Shannon means that you bypass US Immigration and Customs at JFK.* Simply follow the signs to exit the airport, collecting any bags you have checked in from the domestic baggage hall on the way and head straight into New York.

*From 28 October 2012 this service will be available on flight BA001 only.
 
connies4ever
Posts: 3393
Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2006 10:54 pm

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Mon Feb 11, 2013 1:55 am

Quoting SInGAPORE_AIR (Reply 7):
Thanks - looking at the CSeries order book though no carriers apart from SWISS with 30x seem relevant to LCY. I don't suppose there's any visibility about potential CSeries services exLCY ?
Quoting phofmannsair (Reply 9):
You forgot to add PrivatAir in that list. They ordered 5 (+5 options) CS100
Bombardier press release and they're rumoured to operate those aircraft on behalf of Odyssey (new airline which would be based in LCY) Odyssey


Beat me to it !   BBD have stated that the CS100 (but not the CS300) will be certified for LCY 'out of the box' and also for LCY-JFK n/s ETOPS. I'd be shocked if you didn't see Privat Air (operating for Odyssey) move into LCY-JFK flights. As well, in all-J config, the CS100 can carry either 44 or 48 pax, vs BA A318s 32.

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 10):
My view is that ultimately CityFlyer will replace both the A318 and ERJs with the CS100, and CS300, if it proves to be capable of LCY operations.

That seems a reasonable projection to me.
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
 
skipness1E
Posts: 3398
Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:18 am

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Mon Feb 11, 2013 2:19 am

Quoting Wingtips56 (Reply 13):

Isn't the LGW trip maintenance related? It's a common weekend trip. LCY isn't maxed out on stands as it used to be, 12-14 are barely used and 11 was withdrawn. Sounds like they just positioned down a day early for routine maintenance, BA Source is inferring an issue where none exists? I haven't seen then max out stands in years now.

[Edited 2013-02-10 18:23:31]
 
PlymSpotter
Posts: 10016
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2004 7:32 am

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Mon Feb 11, 2013 2:26 am

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 18):
What does this mean? 3000ft on QNH is the minimum altitude before you can have any impact on Heathrow inbounds. Is the fin really that big? Blimey,

Yeah it's 3,001ft - I mean what are the chances  

But seriously, the airspace surface it penetrates is the transitional surface. This is essentially a triangular wedge which begins from the edge of the clearway (FYI - think of the clearway as a 150m wide strip along the length of the runway, bisected by the centreline down its middle) and rises vertically away from the runway at one of two gradients; 1 in 5 for a runway with a non precision instrument approach and 1 in 7 for a runway with a precision instrument approach, of which LCY falls into the latter. This means the 'tailroom' at the front of LCY's original stands is 4.9m and 8.9m at the back, nearest the terminal. That's pretty tight even for the 146/RJ, or at least it would be if there wasn't a dispensation on meeting this requirement due to the relevant gradient being 1 in 6 when LCY was built. So the headroom at the back of the stands is actually 10.3m, which is pretty much bang on the height of an ERJ 190 - the tallest aircraft allowed on the original stands, even then I think there may be a dispensation involved - but LCY is full of dispensations.

So the 11.5m high CS100 and 12.5m high A318 can (wingspan issues aside) only use the new line of stands to the east, where the clearance is 8.2m at the front and 14.8m at the back, hence why aircraft still have to park nose out. Another headache for LCY will be the NG E-Jets, which are going to be higher to accommodate the new engines. The 170NG should still fit on the original stands, unless they really do increase the span, but the 190NG won't.


Dan  
...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
 
LH707330
Posts: 1510
Joined: Fri Jun 15, 2012 11:27 pm

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Mon Feb 11, 2013 5:21 am

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 20):
Beat me to it ! BBD have stated that the CS100 (but not the CS300) will be certified for LCY 'out of the box' and also for LCY-JFK n/s ETOPS.

Why would the CS300 be harder to certify? Can it not make the runway with a profitable payload?
 
skipness1E
Posts: 3398
Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:18 am

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Mon Feb 11, 2013 10:58 am

Ah that makes sense. I know that the plans published had an option to cover the King George V dock and put in a proper nose in parking finger on the South side of the extension. It looked quite impressive and got around the size constraints, indeed I think the reason they lost Stand 11 was spacing out the other ten to wedge in the ER9s properly. Having to taxi off stand and try a second and third attempt to park is not as rare as it once was due to the larger aircraft.

In the best British traditions, the facility is now handing aircraft it was in no way designed or intended for. Dash 7 anyone?
 
RussianJet
Posts: 5983
Joined: Sat Jul 21, 2007 4:15 am

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Mon Feb 11, 2013 11:19 am

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 15):
Another issue is that LCY traditionally had a strong focus on shorter cross-channel routes. These have already disappeared (e.g. BRU) or are under pressure from the High Speed Trains (AMS, RTM, ANR, PAR).

With regard to Paris, why do CityJet only fly to ORY rather than CDG? Surely they miss out on a lot of potential connecting traffic given what a nuisance it is to have to change airports in Paris.
✈ Every strike of the hammer is a blow against the enemy. ✈
 
thijs1984
Posts: 102
Joined: Fri Mar 16, 2007 3:41 am

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Mon Feb 11, 2013 11:36 am

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 15):
Another issue is that LCY traditionally had a strong focus on shorter cross-channel routes. These have already disappeared (e.g. BRU) or are under pressure from the High Speed Trains (AMS, RTM, ANR, PAR).

As for AMS and RTM, those destinations are not affected at all by the high speeds trains due to the simple fact that it takes just to much time to get to the station in Brussels in order to catch the train to London.
And a direct train from AMS via RTM to London is not planned yet. but even still i think to overall travel time by train is much more than traveling by air to LCY.
 
connies4ever
Posts: 3393
Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2006 10:54 pm

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Mon Feb 11, 2013 2:17 pm

Quoting LH707330 (Reply 23):
Quoting connies4ever (Reply 20):
Beat me to it ! BBD have stated that the CS100 (but not the CS300) will be certified for LCY 'out of the box' and also for LCY-JFK n/s ETOPS.

Why would the CS300 be harder to certify? Can it not make the runway with a profitable payload?

Basically runway requirements, I believe. LCY runway is about 1,300 m. CS100 needs about 400m less runway than the CS300, as it is around 5,000 kg lighter (from the link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombardier_CSeries#Specifications). I note that the runway requirements given actually exceed LCY's runway length at MTOW, however, I don't have any info on the date of the specs given and whether or nor takeoffélanding performance has been improved. So either the CS100 t/o performance has been improved, or it will be certified at a restricted t/o weight.
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
 
PlymSpotter
Posts: 10016
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2004 7:32 am

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Mon Feb 11, 2013 4:18 pm

Quoting LH707330 (Reply 23):
Why would the CS300 be harder to certify? Can it not make the runway with a profitable payload?

Aside of the runway length as mentioned by connies4ever, the aircraft needs to fly the 5.5 degree glideslope and maintain it's approach speed - that could well require additional modifications. On routes Quoting connies4ever (Reply 27):
I note that the runway requirements given actually exceed LCY's runway length at MTOW, however, I don't have any info on the date of the specs given and whether or nor takeoffélanding performance has been improved.

MTOW is key, the proposed LCY-JFK flights would essentially trade payload for range off the runway.


Dan  
...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
 
airbazar
Posts: 6948
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Mon Feb 11, 2013 4:25 pm

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 27):
So either the CS100 t/o performance has been improved, or it will be certified at a restricted t/o weight.

But in an all J config (and likely with little luggage underneath), wouldn't the aircraft be well below MTOW?
 
connies4ever
Posts: 3393
Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2006 10:54 pm

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Mon Feb 11, 2013 4:37 pm

Quoting airbazar (Reply 29):
Quoting connies4ever (Reply 27):
So either the CS100 t/o performance has been improved, or it will be certified at a restricted t/o weight.

But in an all J config (and likely with little luggage underneath), wouldn't the aircraft be well below MTOW?

Should be, I would think. But the full Monty J-class product will be fairly heavy on a per seat basis. Plus the galley kit (real China, for example).

One thing that I have thought about, BA's service clears US customs at SNN, and pax deplane in JFK as domestic arrivals, collect their luggage, and get into their Town Cars (if they can afford the flight, they can afford the limo). A n/s service to JFK would not have pre-cleared, basically negating the time advantage. Unless USCBP was installed right at LCY. Possible ?
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
 
vfw614
Posts: 3171
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2001 12:34 am

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Mon Feb 11, 2013 7:33 pm

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 18):
It's certainly not peaked, the numbers do not back that up.

What I meant to say is that the traditional market for LCY has sort of peaked, high frequency services to major airports on the continent. Both AF and BA have diversified by adding flights to leisure destinations (AF, BA) and to tertiary markets (AF).

Quoting thijs1984 (Reply 26):
As for AMS and RTM, those destinations are not affected at all by the high speeds trains due to the simple fact that it takes just to much time to get to the station in Brussels in order to catch the train to London.

Deutsche Bahn has announced plans to operate ICE highspeed trains from Amsterdam via Rotterdam and Brussels to London. Travel time from Amsterdam downtowon to London downtown will be 4hrs, from Rotterdam downtown to London downtown 3hrs. They will also offer direct trains from Frankfurt and Cologne, two coupled train sets will split in Brussels to Amsterdam and Frankfurt. Deutsche Bahn has already odered newly build ICE 3 (class 407) trains for those services.

http://www.bahn.com/i/view/GBR/en/about/overview/ice-in-london.shtml

Eurostar has announced similar services to Amsterdam.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/eu...vices-to-Amsterdam-and-Geneva.html

A downtown-downtown travel time of 3 or 4 hours on a comfortable high speed train with working areas, wifi etc. is, imho, competitive to flights from AMS or RTM to LCY. We shall see.
 
skipness1E
Posts: 3398
Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:18 am

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Mon Feb 11, 2013 9:33 pm

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 30):
A n/s service to JFK would not have pre-cleared, basically negating the time advantage.

From a marketing perspective, stopping in Shannon for pre clearance is hardly a competitive advantage. There's no business case for having a US CBP at LCY, not for under a hundred bankers on expenses a day.
 
Viscount724
Posts: 19056
Joined: Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:32 pm

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Mon Feb 11, 2013 9:41 pm

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 30):
One thing that I have thought about, BA's service clears US customs at SNN, and pax deplane in JFK as domestic arrivals

As already mentioned, since October that only applies on the earliest of BA's 2 LCY-JFK flights. On the later flight passengers must clear immigration/customs on arrival at JFK.

[Edited 2013-02-11 13:42:15]
 
PlymSpotter
Posts: 10016
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2004 7:32 am

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Mon Feb 11, 2013 10:32 pm

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 31):
A downtown-downtown travel time of 3 or 4 hours on a comfortable high speed train with working areas, wifi etc. is, imho, competitive to flights from AMS or RTM to LCY. We shall see.

I disagree. When it comes to large urban areas, being delivered to a station in the very heart of the city is often a disadvantage. In LCY's case its catchment area is the Docklands (Canary Wharf), East London and beyond, not ideal for reaching the London terminus, unless they plan on stopping ICE trains at Stratford, but I thought that idea had been shelved. Also the frequency is low, there is no doubt the frequent Eurostar is a better alternative to Brussels and Paris, but at three trains a day and likely similar prices you may not find many people switching.


Dan  
...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
 
vfw614
Posts: 3171
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2001 12:34 am

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Tue Feb 12, 2013 12:23 am

With Eurostar entering the AMS/RTM-LON market, frequency will be much more competitive.

To give you an example, the Thalys highspeed trains have killed all flights between Cologne and Paris. It involves a similar travel time as AMS-LON. The key, in my experience, is a direct service without the need to change trains. Once that is guaranteed, it becomes really attractive.

The overall travel experience simply is much better because you can work for, say, 3,5 hours of the 4, make calls, have wifi all the time. Air travel is much more divided into small sections, resulting in a lot of wasted time.
 
User avatar
RayChuang
Posts: 8007
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2000 7:43 am

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Tue Feb 12, 2013 12:50 am

In the end, the opening of the High Speed 1 line between Folkestone and London St. Pancras (with a top speed to 186 mph) has pretty much limited the usefulness of LCY. This especially with more and more direct rail service from London St. Pancras to various destinations in continental Europe from Eurostar and soon Deutsche Bahn.
 
skipness1E
Posts: 3398
Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:18 am

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Tue Feb 12, 2013 1:07 am

RayChaung have you ever set foot in LCY? To say that, excuse me while I laugh at High Speed 1, will kill p2p busines flying is just comic. I've lived in London seven years and that's still amusing. It's like saying Crossrail will be affordable or the Central Line will quieten down. The bottom line is St Pancras is lovely but the numbers at LCY are still climbing.

It's niche but has some good core routes.
 
vfw614
Posts: 3171
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2001 12:34 am

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Tue Feb 12, 2013 3:13 am

I think we are talking about the future while you are talking about the presence. Things will change. At the moment, there are no useful high speed train connections from London other than to Brussels and Paris. In a couple of years, tihs will be different.

Whereever high speed trains have entered the scene, air traffic has suffered. Look at the domestic market in France, look at certain routes within Germany or the LON-PAR/BRU market.
 
vv701
Posts: 5783
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 10:54 am

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Tue Feb 12, 2013 1:54 pm

Quoting AIR MALTA (Reply 1):
ARN is so so as the route is not operating in July and August.

When I was a regular traveller to Sweden the best part of twenty years ago getting around was more problematic in July and August as SK (and at that time Linjeflyg amongst others) operated a significantly reduced service in the summer holiday period. So, unless things have changed, there may not be too much significance in this.

Also note that BA significantly reduce their LCY-SNN-JFK-LCY schedules in August. They only operate BA003/04 on Sundays instead of six days a week. So it is not just Swedish demand for flights to and from LCY that falls significantly at that time of the year.

One of the future developments for LCY is start-up Norwegian airline, FlyNonstop. It is due to start a KRS-LCY service on 23 April. But to me it seems a little ambitious to operate a six-times-a-week flight on this route with the population of Kristiansand only being around 80,000. Recognise that BA CityFlyer failed on the LCY-CPH route where Copenhagen has a population 15 times larger at around 1.2 million. However KRS have one advantage over CPH. It has no direct service to any other LON airport.

Nevertheless FlyNonstop plan to fly a 100 seat E190 on the route. So they will be offering sufficient seats to fly around 40 per cent of the total Kristiansand population to and from LCY every year
 
hotplane
Posts: 729
Joined: Fri Jul 21, 2006 10:44 pm

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Tue Feb 12, 2013 2:44 pm

Quoting VV701 (Reply 39):
FlyNonstop plan to fly a 100 seat E190 on the route.

With a daily arrival time of 20.15L
?
 
PlymSpotter
Posts: 10016
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2004 7:32 am

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Tue Feb 12, 2013 6:29 pm

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 35):
The overall travel experience simply is much better because you can work for, say, 3,5 hours of the 4, make calls, have wifi all the time. Air travel is much more divided into small sections, resulting in a lot of wasted time.

That might be your opinion, but it's by no means representative of the market from LCY, which is predominantly business travelers who use the airport because of it's very short check in times and its proximity to the city of London. I know many people who use LCY-AMS, RTM, ORY etc... because they can rely on travelling from office to office/meeting room in 2.5 hours by air. Say they took the train to AMS instead, include the 30 minutes travel/waiting at either end and you have a 10 hour round trip compared to 5 on the plane - that is anything but appealing to the traveler LCY caters for and, considering growth, is not going to make a dent on these markets. The only potential I see for a reduction in traffic is from time insensitive travelers on lower yielding routes into LTN/STN or LGW, especially if the train is competitive on price.

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 38):
Whereever high speed trains have entered the scene, air traffic has suffered. Look at the domestic market in France, look at certain routes within Germany or the LON-PAR/BRU market.

As these networks illustrate, there is a cut off point of around 3 hours, exceed this travel time and rail's attractiveness decreases significantly. There is also the obvious fact that the UK is an island, and that does make a big difference to travel habits - i.e. driving is not favorable.

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 38):

I think we are talking about the future while you are talking about the presence. Things will change.

The only thing which will change is that LCY's throughput will keep increasing. In addition to the present, there are enough upcoming and growing markets available to LCY to keep them in growth until they are at capacity.


Dan  
...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
 
thijs1984
Posts: 102
Joined: Fri Mar 16, 2007 3:41 am

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Tue Feb 12, 2013 7:08 pm

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 35):
With Eurostar entering the AMS/RTM-LON market, frequency will be much more competitive.

Where did you get this info? As far as i know there will be no direct train by Eurostar from AMS via RTM to LON for the comming years.
 
connies4ever
Posts: 3393
Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2006 10:54 pm

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Tue Feb 12, 2013 8:27 pm

Addition to my Reply 20 in this thread, I'd shocked if Privat Air/Odyssey didn't investigate LCY to ME destinations (JED/RUH/DHA/DOH/KWI come to mind). There could be a decent business for those travelling J who don't want to mix with the plebes.
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
 
skipness1E
Posts: 3398
Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:18 am

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Tue Feb 12, 2013 11:12 pm

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 43):
Addition to my Reply 20 in this thread, I'd shocked if Privat Air/Odyssey didn't investigate LCY to ME destinations (JED/RUH/DHA/DOH/KWI come to mind). There could be a decent business for those travelling J who don't want to mix with the plebes.

I think they would be swamped by being way too close to LHR, there is no proper premium lounge facility at LCY, nor are there plans to introduce any. The BA long haul operation is very niche connecting two financial centres in Canary Wharf and NYC. The same business driver does not exist for points East. Lets face it, BA, Saudia, QR and KU do it way better from LHR with the full First Class treatment and premier lounge facilities. It would be like Maxjet and Silverjet al over again. I wonder just how many of you guys have ever clapped eyes on LCY as you're describing an airport and a market I barely recognise and I live a stones throw away.
 
PlymSpotter
Posts: 10016
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2004 7:32 am

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Tue Feb 12, 2013 11:14 pm

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 44):
I wonder just how many of you guys have ever clapped eyes on LCY as you're describing an airport and a market I barely recognise and I live a stones throw away.

Hardly the same distance as the ME, but I can certainly see MOW being launched in the future.


Dan  
...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
 
greenair727
Posts: 534
Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2007 6:27 am

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Wed Feb 13, 2013 5:37 am

Quote:
The reduced USCBP work hours have been in effect from the beginning of the winter season (end of October) and flight BA3 still operates as normal. I don't know if passengers are still made disembark at SNN or not (presumably not as it is solely a refuelling stop now). The stopover time is shorter than BA1 though for obvious reasons.

Does this mean that ONE flight from SNN enters the US on the cleared side, while the second one (which arrives/leaves SNN after the US customs is closed) enters the US like a regular international (not pre-cleared) flight? If so, it must be confusing on the US side to know which aircraft must be cleared and which need not be, as it wouldn't be based on the port of departure, rather the port and time of departure.
 
vfw614
Posts: 3171
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2001 12:34 am

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Wed Feb 13, 2013 7:36 am

Just noted on the LCY website that they are listing the new Kristiansand service as "Kjevik KRS". I guess a lot of people have no idea where Kristiansand is, but I am sure that nobody outside the immediate vicinty of Kristiansand knows what or where "Kjevik" is. Maybe they are using "Kjevik" to avoid mix-ups with Kristianstad in Sweden, but from a marketing point of view they are certainly not helping the route.

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 41):
I know many people who use LCY-AMS, RTM, ORY etc... because they can rely on travelling from office to office/meeting room in 2.5 hours by air. Say they took the train to AMS instead, include the 30 minutes travel/waiting at either end and you have a 10 hour round trip compared to 5 on the plane - that is anything but appealing to the traveler LCY caters for and, considering growth, is not going to make a dent on these markets.

Well, everyone is entitled to his/her opinion  

As far as I see it, LCY has always had a stronger focus on inbound traffic than on outbound traffic and this is their main customer base - not so much the Canary Wharf suits you are describing and know (Canary Wharf has 100.000 employees which can hardly keep an airport with 3m pax a year alive on their own). And people traveling inbound are not going from a workplace at Canary Wharf to an airport lounge at AMS, but from an office miles away from the departure airport to a place somewhere in Central or East London. That said, they will never make it in 2.5 hours door to door by flying into/out of LCY - going from their departure point to Schiphol, clear check-in and immigration, walk to the departure gate, taxi to the Polderbaan, be in flight etc. The story is a little bit different at smaller airports such as RTM or ANR; but these have already seen a reduction of LCY flights - I remember times when RTM had 11 or 12 daily depatures to LCY whereas now it has 7. ANR used to have 7, they now have a max. of five.

I am not saying that HSR will wipe out all these routes, but it will have an impact.
 
connies4ever
Posts: 3393
Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2006 10:54 pm

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Wed Feb 13, 2013 9:49 am

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 44):
Lets face it, BA, Saudia, QR and KU do it way better from LHR with the full First Class treatment and premier lounge facilities. It would be like Maxjet and Silverjet al over again. I wonder just how many of you guys have ever clapped eyes on LCY as you're describing an airport and a market I barely recognise and I live a stones throw away.

No doubt the above firms out of LHR can offer a superior service than what can be done from LCY, but I'm talking about J, not F. Given the differential in fares, easier to justify to management, as well as logistically since close to Canary Wharf.

Have clapped eyes on LCY -- on approach to LHR...Quite a different look from when I lived in London in the 70s !
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
 
Bongodog1964
Posts: 3096
Joined: Wed Oct 18, 2006 6:29 am

RE: Outlook For London City Airport (LCY)

Wed Feb 13, 2013 12:28 pm

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 36):
In the end, the opening of the High Speed 1 line between Folkestone and London St. Pancras (with a top speed to 186 mph) has pretty much limited the usefulness of LCY. This especially with more and more direct rail service from London St. Pancras to various destinations in continental Europe from Eurostar and soon Deutsche Bahn.

Do you realise the journey time from Canary Wharf to St Pancras to catch Eurostar ? By the time a financier has reached the concourse at St Pancras, his colleague who is flying is already in the air.

As to the various destinations in Europe, have any in addition to Paris and Brussels ever been announced ?