brilondon
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Hawaiian Service To JFK

Mon Feb 11, 2013 4:55 pm

I was wondering how the loads are for HA's flight to JFK from HNL.
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HAL
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RE: Hawaiian Service To JFK

Mon Feb 11, 2013 5:18 pm

It depends on the day - some days are full, some not quite as full. Generally though, most seats are filled.

HAL
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PHX787
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RE: Hawaiian Service To JFK

Mon Feb 11, 2013 5:49 pm

If I'm not mistaken, this is the longest non-stop domestic flight in the US?

Also, what are the nature of the pax on this flight: Are they business travelers, leisure, connecting onward to Asia?
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FoxBravo
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RE: Hawaiian Service To JFK

Mon Feb 11, 2013 6:09 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 2):

Yes. It's just slightly longer than UA's EWR-HNL and IAD-HNL.

I would imagine mostly leisure pax bound for Hawaii. The JFK-HNL flights aren't well timed for onward connections except within the islands.
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IrishAyes
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RE: Hawaiian Service To JFK

Mon Feb 11, 2013 6:36 pm

It's tough to say. I personally don't feel compelled to paint a big rosy picture on this one because even though its a seemingly high-profile route that I'm sure has no problem filling seats, the reality is market conditions are tough and HA suffered from a USD3.4 million loss for the last three months of 2012 compared to a $21 million profit from the period prior.

I'm sure much of that had to deal with the mixed-results of the inter-island expansion and the fact that HA leans largely on its Japanese market within its long-haul network (which is suffering from the weak yen) but the US mainland-Hawaii flights have also experienced a rise in capacity coupled with a double-digit drop in unit revenues. I wouldn't be surprised if the pricing environment is relatively weak, which probably means the route is taking a hit on yields given the long stage length of the flight.

At any rate, I give it a 50-50 shot for long term survival. The market conditions are harsh and HA has embarked on some very ambitious long-term growth plans, many of which face uphill battles in this current revenue environment, so unless things change, glamor routes like this one will be the first to get the axe.
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Sean-SAN-
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RE: Hawaiian Service To JFK

Mon Feb 11, 2013 7:56 pm

I've heard this route does well on cargo... I'm guessing seafood etc going to NYC and random stuff going back.
 
klwright69
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RE: Hawaiian Service To JFK

Tue Feb 12, 2013 11:52 am

Is UA still doing well on the route with HA competing?
 
jayhup
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RE: Hawaiian Service To JFK

Tue Feb 12, 2013 12:46 pm

I've taken this flight about once a month since it started and can tell you that the loads have been pretty good.

While the majority of the pax appear to be leisure travelers I have spoken to a few people who were traveling for business.

I spoke to one guy who was connecting on to MNL even though he had to spend a night in HNL.

Even though the flights have been fairly full the yields have been low. I booked a roundtrip this past December for $420 so it's hard to see HA making big bucks on this route.

JH
 
bambicruz
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RE: Hawaiian Service To JFK

Tue Feb 12, 2013 1:24 pm

Just came back from Hawaii and both ways there was not a single empty seat (including first and Biz)

-B
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toobz
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RE: Hawaiian Service To JFK

Tue Feb 12, 2013 1:29 pm

First and Biz??? I've never been on a HA flight with Biz..
 
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jfklganyc
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RE: Hawaiian Service To JFK

Tue Feb 12, 2013 1:37 pm

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 4):
At any rate, I give it a 50-50 shot for long term survival.

Barring something bad happening that brings the whole industry to its knees (again) They are committed to this route.

It is very high profile and is consistently full.

I can't tell you what a big deal this is in Hawaii...non stop to NYC.

And on the other side, everyone I know that has gone to Hawaii in the last several months has been on this flight. That tells me 2 things:

1. The fares are resonable to the leisure traveller. Meaning the yields are low
2. The EWR flight was never in the equation. They are capturing people that want to leave from NYC that never considered EWR on CO now UA
 
LAXintl
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RE: Hawaiian Service To JFK

Tue Feb 12, 2013 1:37 pm

Some DOT numbers are available.

Load factor:

HNL-JFK
2012Q2 - 88.3
2013Q3 - 88.6

JFK-HNL
2012Q2 - 90.7
2013Q3 - 85.6

The yield however is not very inspiring when the 5000 mile distance are considered. Only about 7.1 cents/mile.
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catiii
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RE: Hawaiian Service To JFK

Tue Feb 12, 2013 4:22 pm

Quoting HAL (Reply 1):
It depends on the day - some days are full, some not quite as full. Generally though, most seats are filled.

HAL

Pretty good yields?

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 4):
At any rate, I give it a 50-50 shot for long term survival. The market conditions are harsh and HA has embarked on some very ambitious long-term growth plans, many of which face uphill battles in this current revenue environment, so unless things change, glamor routes like this one will be the first to get the axe.

I thought B6 was codesharing with them on this and feeding the flight? Makes it much more likely to succeed if they have feed coming in as well as capturing O/D.
 
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IrishAyes
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RE: Hawaiian Service To JFK

Tue Feb 12, 2013 4:45 pm

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 10):
It is very high profile and is consistently full.

I know. People constantly point this out and I think this has been well established, but nobody seems to know the answer to the yields question which is far more important to address. It's silly for people to keep posting these threads because they usually amount to nothing and the valuable information is never provided.
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Viscount724
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RE: Hawaiian Service To JFK

Tue Feb 12, 2013 5:11 pm

Quoting bambicruz (Reply 8):
Just came back from Hawaii and both ways there was not a single empty seat (including first)

As is often the case on routes with little or no business traffic demand, many passengers in F are probably frequent flyer redemption bookings (or non-rev employees). The fact that F is full on routes like that doesn't mean they're getting high yield passengers. Often it means the opposite. It's the same on routes like Europe-BKK where premium cabins are often full but rarely with many passengers paying the applicable fare.
 
catiii
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RE: Hawaiian Service To JFK

Tue Feb 12, 2013 5:40 pm

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 14):
many passengers in F are probably frequent flyer redemption bookings (or non-rev employees).

As the husband of a flight attendant, I had to chuckle at this. We've never gotten F non-revving to Hawaii. In fact, we often have no luck in Y either.
 
toobz
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RE: Hawaiian Service To JFK

Tue Feb 12, 2013 8:11 pm

cat..I'm with you. It's been years since I've gotten F to HNL other than from NRT once last year (well Bizelite). F does well considering DL does not do complimentary upgrades to F even from the mainland.
 
Viscount724
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RE: Hawaiian Service To JFK

Tue Feb 12, 2013 8:14 pm

Quoting toobz (Reply 16):
cat..I'm with you. It's been years since I've gotten F to HNL other than from NRT once last year (well Bizelite). F does well considering DL does not do complimentary upgrades to F even from the mainland.

But how many of those passengers are frequent flyer redemption bookings? I expect a high percentage on all Hawaii routes.
 
MAH4546
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RE: Hawaiian Service To JFK

Tue Feb 12, 2013 8:17 pm

The F product is absolutely unacceptable for a flight of this distance, regardless of the fact it's Hawai'i. I hope HA takes a serious look at a legitimate long-haul product, now that it has an expanding long-haul network.
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IrishAyes
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RE: Hawaiian Service To JFK

Tue Feb 12, 2013 8:21 pm

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 18):
The F product is absolutely unacceptable for a flight of this distance, regardless of the fact it's Hawai'i. I hope HA takes a serious look at a legitimate long-haul product, now that it has an expanding long-haul network.

Seriously. I just read a report in the TR forums on the F product and was pretty shocked at how unimpressive it looks. The seats almost look like US Domestic F. Kind of disappointing for an airline that is usually acclaimed to offer the best all-around service on US-Hawaii flights (i.e. complimentary meals in Y cabin, etc).
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MAH4546
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RE: Hawaiian Service To JFK

Tue Feb 12, 2013 8:27 pm

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 19):
Seriously. I just read a report in the TR forums on the F product and was pretty shocked at how unimpressive it looks. The seats almost look like US Domestic F. Kind of disappointing for an airline that is usually acclaimed to offer the best all-around service on US-Hawaii flights (i.e. complimentary meals in Y cabin, etc).

It's fine for a 4-5 hour flight from the West Coast, but HNLSYD is about the length of MIASVO! AA/DL use long-haul products from DFW/ORD/ATL. I know UA does from EWR, but not sure about IAD/ORD/IAH.
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9w748capt
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RE: Hawaiian Service To JFK

Tue Feb 12, 2013 8:54 pm

Does AA place their code on this flight? Meh - too lazy to look it up myself. Might have to swing a mileage run if those fares keep up...
 
roseflyer
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RE: Hawaiian Service To JFK

Tue Feb 12, 2013 8:59 pm

Quoting Sean-SAN- (Reply 5):


I've heard this route does well on cargo... I'm guessing seafood etc going to NYC and random stuff going back.

Outside of Alaska, Hawaii is the best cargo market in the US. It's usually items flying into Hawaii and not the other way. However it is still a small market. UA is the cargo leader to the Hawaiian islands, and UA averages only about 2% of its revenue from cargo on domestic operations. Hawaii is better than the rest of the US, but still you are looking at under 5% of the total revenue. The route is justified on passenger demand. UA for example earns more from buy on board sales than cargo.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 14):
As is often the case on routes with little or no business traffic demand, many passengers in F are probably frequent flyer redemption bookings (or non-rev employees). The fact that F is full on routes like that doesn't mean they're getting high yield passengers. Often it means the opposite. It's the same on routes like Europe-BKK where premium cabins are often full but rarely with many passengers paying the applicable fare.

Hawaiian only has 18 first class seats on their A330s and 767s. That is a small enough cabin to fill on revenue.

I agree with the logic when you are talking about AA, UA or DL with their widebodies to HNL, but with only 18 seats, HA can fill those with revenue F paying passengers since there is a market for 5 star resorts.
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Viscount724
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RE: Hawaiian Service To JFK

Tue Feb 12, 2013 9:04 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 11):
The yield however is not very inspiring when the 5000 mile distance are considered. Only about 7.1 cents/mile.

Checked half a dozen random dates in March on the ITAsoftware site and for nonstop service UA from EWR was lower in most cases than HA from JFK, sometimes by more than $100 (HA was the lowest in one example). Some fares seem extremely low for such a longhaul route.

For example, for a midweek round trip (Tuesday both ways) outbound March 5 and return March 12, UA has a $415 fare including taxes, meaning UA only keeps $362 for almost 10,000 miles of travel, or a yield of 3.6 cents/mile. HA's lowest fare for the same dates was $556 (5 cents/mile after tax).
 
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IrishAyes
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RE: Hawaiian Service To JFK

Tue Feb 12, 2013 9:06 pm

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 20):
I know UA does from EWR, but not sure about IAD/ORD/IAH.

UA uses their domestic 777s on their Hawaii routes from ORD, GUM and SFO to HNL/KOA/OGG, etc. and there are no lie-flats (recliner only) on these frames, which is why elites are UDU/CPU-eligible.

If there is a lie-flat seat on the Hawaii flight, such as on the PMCO 764s used from SFO, IAD, EWR and IAH, there are no free upgrades other than using certificates or miles because the hard product is obviously superior.
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toobz
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RE: Hawaiian Service To JFK

Tue Feb 12, 2013 9:35 pm

Viscount.. totally. Yes the front cabin has a lot of mileage redemptions absolutely. And I also agree the product is pretty mediocre on HA. Like MAH said it works for a 5hr flight but anything more, it's not very comfortable. Although these seats do look better than the ones I've seen in the ratty old 767s I've had the pleasure of being on. I've only flown HA 3 times but I have to say I have never been impressed with their product, hard or soft. People rave how great they are. Maybe I've just had bad luck with the crew..
 
brilondon
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RE: Hawaiian Service To JFK

Mon Feb 18, 2013 12:31 am

Quoting bambicruz (Reply 8):
Just came back from Hawaii and both ways there was not a single empty seat (including first and Biz)

-B

Yeah, no airline has "first and biz" to Hawaii due to the large number of leisure passengers on those flights,

I always enjoy talking with people who are coming to the Islands for the first time. They are always full of questions and of course I am always full of information on the way to HNL. Usually flying from the Islands I am working and then after that I try to get a little sleep as it is usually an overnight flight.
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koruman
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RE: Hawaiian Service To JFK

Mon Feb 18, 2013 1:18 am

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 14):
As is often the case on routes with little or no business traffic demand, many passengers in F are probably frequent flyer redemption bookings (or non-rev employees). The fact that F is full on routes like that doesn't mean they're getting high yield passengers. Often it means the opposite

You obviously don't share my misfortunae in being a member of Hawaiian's frequent flyer program.

Basically, Hawaiian sell their First Class seats at a very keenly-priced level, and few if any are made available for frequent flyer redemptions.

It's one of the reasons why they are in such good health compared with other North American airlines. their highest yielding seats are their highest yielding seats, rather than a comped gift to frequent flyers.

They can't command the 300-400% premium that lie-flat beds typically command over international economy class. But they sell their First Class seats for roughly double their discount Economy fare, which is rather like NZ/QF/VS/BA/CX Premium Economy's yield premium.
 
Passedv1
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RE: Hawaiian Service To JFK

Mon Feb 18, 2013 4:51 am

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 11):
The yield however is not very inspiring when the 5000 mile distance are considered. Only about 7.1 cents/mile.

I'm an ignorant ops guy...what kind of yield would be good, great, so-so, bad, ugly. Where would 7.1 fall? Also is this 7.1 number Revenue or Profit?
 
planespotting
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RE: Hawaiian Service To JFK

Mon Feb 18, 2013 4:32 pm

Quoting PassedV1 (Reply 28):
I'm an ignorant ops guy...what kind of yield would be good, great, so-so, bad, ugly. Where would 7.1 fall? Also is this 7.1 number Revenue or Profit?

7.1 is revenue cents per seat per mile - the route is 4,983 miles, so 4,983 x .071 = $353.79 of revenue per seat per flight. With an average load factor of roughly 88.3 percent, that means they're getting 251 seats filled per flight (.883 * 284 seats), or about $88,800 total revenue per flight.

With JetA wholesaling at roughly $3 per gallon, a back-of-the-envelope calculation shows that fuel costs for 5,000 miles plus reserves (say, planning for roughly 5,500 miles worth of flying or about 27,870 gallons) runs about $80,000. So I think we can say with some accuracy that HA is at best breaking even on this flight when you include other ops expenses and crew costs?
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cschleic
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RE: Hawaiian Service To JFK

Tue Feb 19, 2013 12:52 am

A colleague of mine took this flight JFK - HNL within just the last couple of days. For someone living in the NY area, for him the non-stop flight was a big big plus, vs. connecting options. They're accustomed to being able to fly non-stop to almost anywhere in Europe, plus most major cities in Central America and South America.
 
LAXintl
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RE: Hawaiian Service To JFK

Tue Feb 19, 2013 2:18 am

According to Hawaiian DOT Form-41 they say their A332 block hour cost averages about $3,900 per block hour excluding fuel.
Average fuel consumption is 1,882 gal/block hr.

So with block times of 9:35 and 11:30 that about 21hrs of round trip flying. We can average that out to 10:30hr each direction.

So for 10:30hr mission:

Fuel Cost - (1882 x 10.5 x $3.00/gal) = $59,283
Rest Cost - (3900 x 10.5) = $40,950

Almost exactly $100,000

At 284 seats assuming 85% LF you would need an average one way fare of about $415 just to break even.

Are they getting that $415 ?

No, not according to the DOT passenger ticket revenue numbers.
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cschleic
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RE: Hawaiian Service To JFK

Tue Feb 19, 2013 2:24 am

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 31):
So for 10:30hr mission:

Fuel Cost - (1882 x 10.5 x $3.00/gal) = $59,283
Rest Cost - (3900 x 10.5) = $40,950

Almost exactly $100,000

At 284 seats assuming 85% LF you would need an average one way fare of about $415 just to break even.

Are they getting that $415 ?

No, not according to the DOT passenger ticket revenue numbers.

How much cargo on top of that can they take?
 
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TWA772LR
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RE: Hawaiian Service To JFK

Tue Feb 19, 2013 2:30 am

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 20):
I know UA does from EWR, but not sure about IAD/ORD/IAH.

If flying to the islands from IAH you're better off going through LAX. Believe me...
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Mikey86
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RE: Hawaiian Service To JFK

Tue Feb 19, 2013 4:48 am

Judging by the availability its all over the place. I had a look at some of the flights HNL-JFK and it was full on some days in Y with only J class and some days there were still seats available.

However, sometimes airlines don't release all of their availability into the GDS at once.
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Schweigend
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RE: Hawaiian Service To JFK

Tue Feb 19, 2013 6:05 am

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 31):
Are they getting that $415 ?

No, not according to the DOT passenger ticket revenue numbers.

A pity. I want HA to succeed at this. Once the route is more established, they may be able to get an average $830 RT fare...but then they'll just be breaking even. UA seems to succeed on EWR-HNL, but I've no idea what their block hour costs on the 764 are, nor their average fares.

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 33):
If flying to the islands from IAH you're better off going through LAX. Believe me...

I don't understand this. You were replying to the post fully quoted below:

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 20):


Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 19):
Seriously. I just read a report in the TR forums on the [HA] F product and was pretty shocked at how unimpressive it looks. The seats almost look like US Domestic F. Kind of disappointing for an airline that is usually acclaimed to offer the best all-around service on US-Hawaii flights (i.e. complimentary meals in Y cabin, etc).

It's fine for a 4-5 hour flight from the West Coast, but HNLSYD is about the length of MIASVO! AA/DL use long-haul products from DFW/ORD/ATL. I know UA does from EWR, but not sure about IAD/ORD/IAH.

TWA772LR, if you are looking to avoid a domestic F product to HNL, LAX is the last place you'd want to fly through -- all UA service to Hawaii from there is on 757s or 737s, which sport domestic F seats. (But that is a relatively short flight.)

Service from IAH to HNL has always been on widebodies, with a varying mix of aircraft having the old-style int'l J "recliners" or newer lie-flats. UA even recently ran international 3-class 777s on the route, but that ended around the time the 787 was grounded, as they probably needed that frame elsewhere.  

Scottie
 
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TWA772LR
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RE: Hawaiian Service To JFK

Tue Feb 19, 2013 6:32 am

Quoting Schweigend (Reply 35):
TWA772LR, if you are looking to avoid a domestic F product to HNL, LAX is the last place you'd want to fly through -- all UA service to Hawaii from there is on 757s or 737s, which sport domestic F seats. (But that is a relatively short flight.)

Service from IAH to HNL has always been on widebodies, with a varying mix of aircraft having the old-style int'l J "recliners" or newer lie-flats. UA even recently ran international 3-class 777s on the route, but that ended around the time the 787 was grounded, as they probably needed that frame elsewhere.  

My bad! My brain has been fried from all of the studying I've been doing lately! I was talking about how the flights are always jam-packed full of people, and since I non-rev, it's nearly impossible to get on IAH-HNL for me and my family.

I'm so tired that I had to edit my post just to include the fact I was talking about UA
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Schweigend
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RE: Hawaiian Service To JFK

Tue Feb 19, 2013 6:42 am

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 36):

I understand now -- thanks! Connecting to Hawaii via LAX is often easier for nonrevs...I've done it. Houston flights do always seem to be packed.