ORD Boy 2
Topic Author
Posts: 298
Joined: Fri Aug 25, 2000 12:25 pm

Impact Of AA/US On UA

Thu Feb 14, 2013 3:30 am

While we now know that the new AA will be in oneworld, how does this impact UA? The one area where UA is going to have issues is Florida/interior south?

Would UA possibly organically build a hub in the south between IAD and IAH? And if so, where? Or do they add frequencies to both of those hubs and add new destinations?

The most valuable feed that US had for UA was the interior South feed in my view..

Thoughts?
 
point2point
Posts: 2080
Joined: Fri Mar 19, 2010 10:54 pm

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Thu Feb 14, 2013 3:46 am

Well, certainly DEN-CLT, where UA/US do a code share, will no longer be workable. With anywhere from 4-6 daily US only nonstop flights here and all with mostly 320s and some 321s, a lot of traffic on this route and no competition at all for US. And works out for both Denver pax to connect at CLT, and Charlotte pax to connect in DEN, with both US and UA in *A.

Now...... will UA, or WN, or both jump into this city-pair with nonstop service? Or maybe even F9 or someone else if UA or WN (unlikely though with both) don't take advantage here?

 
 
User avatar
kngkyle
Crew
Posts: 397
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2006 3:33 am

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Thu Feb 14, 2013 4:01 am

I think ORD is where it will become interesting. The two new behemoths sharing a full size hub. Will American try to be more competitive at ORD? Or continue giving up market share to UA in favor of fortress hubs? What even is the breakdown of destinations and capacity between UA and AA at ORD now? How has UA changed at ORD since the merger?

I personally hope to see both UA and AA fight for ORD dominance, if for no other reason than it would be fun to watch.
 
commavia
Posts: 9809
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Thu Feb 14, 2013 4:06 am

Quoting kngkyle (Reply 3):
The two new behemoths sharing a full size hub.

Well, yes, although that's been the case continuously for 30 years. Two huge airlines with two huge hubs at the same airport is nothing new at O'Hare, and this merger certainly doesn't change that.

Quoting kngkyle (Reply 3):
Will American try to be more competitive at ORD?

Yes, but they would have anyway. The main thing holding AA back from being competitive at ORD was its union contracts, which prevented AA from doing what was necessary to be competitive. Now that this problem has been addressed, AA is free to be far more competitive - in ORD, and in general.

Quoting kngkyle (Reply 3):
Or continue giving up market share to UA in favor of fortress hubs?

Actually, while I don't have the precise numbers in front of me (but being as this is A.net, I'm sure someone will), I suspect that the last decade has been far less a case of AA "giving up market share to UA" at ORD than of both carriers giving up market share to WN across town at MDW.

AA's ORD hub - overall - is certainly smaller than it was pre-9/11. But then again, so is UA's.

Quoting kngkyle (Reply 3):
What even is the breakdown of destinations and capacity between UA and AA at ORD now?

Again, not sure - but both hubs are huge.
 
User avatar
TWA772LR
Posts: 3796
Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2011 6:12 am

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Thu Feb 14, 2013 7:41 am

Quoting ORD Boy 2 (Thread starter):
Would UA possibly organically build a hub in the south between IAD and IAH? And if so, where?

UA has the south covered well enough with IAD to the north and IAH to the west. But I guess they can technically do anything.

Before I get flamed, I know this is a pipedream. I would love to see UA build a hub at MEM that could serve as a leach to DFW and also serve the south.   
Beauty is watching a 787 bank to make a short final. Bliss is watching that 787 with a good beer. Nirvana is all of that with a beautiful woman on your side.
 
User avatar
STT757
Posts: 13223
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2000 1:14 am

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Thu Feb 14, 2013 2:37 pm

As a Mileage plus member I will miss the PHL option, I live closer to EWR but PHL (especially on US) is almost always cheaper. We would fly US from PHL and earn UA miles, I know many folks in New Jersey who do the same. As for the loss of a Southeast hub I think UA should just ramp up flights into the Southeast from existing hubs. IAD for example is not capacity constrained, they can ramp up more regional flights from IAD.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
allegiantflyer
Posts: 236
Joined: Mon Mar 12, 2012 6:59 pm

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Thu Feb 14, 2013 2:57 pm

Im guessing UA will be jealous that they cant say their the worlds largest airline anymore :P
 
jfk777
Posts: 5866
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Thu Feb 14, 2013 3:02 pm

The two cities where AA and UA will do battle are Chicago and LAX. Where is AA going to expand in Los Angeles seems like the $64,000 question. AA's terminal 4 is overcapacity. TWA's former Terminal 3 could be a solution, but does AA retain any lease there ?
 
AADC10
Posts: 1507
Joined: Sat Nov 13, 2004 7:40 am

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Thu Feb 14, 2013 3:18 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 8):
Where is AA going to expand in Los Angeles seems like the $64,000 question. AA's terminal 4 is overcapacity.

The even larger problem at LAX is that AA/US cannot even consolidate existing capacity. US made an agreement to move out of T-1 but AA's T-4 does not even have space for the couple of gates US is currently using. I do not think that the merger is going to have much of an impact on UA and LAX and probably even less at ORD.

UA will probably shuffle around some flights to US hubs. Some may be dropped since it will no longer be to a codeshare hub, a few routes might be increased to compensate for the loss of the codeshares on O&D passengers. My guess is that some UA hub to US hub flights will be downguaged to UAX to keep the frequencies up.
 
User avatar
cageyjames
Posts: 671
Joined: Fri Nov 03, 2006 2:08 am

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Thu Feb 14, 2013 3:20 pm

Quoting AllegiantFlyer (Reply 7):

Im guessing UA will be jealous that they cant say their the worlds largest airline anymore :P

Well I believe UA is still the largest airline when you count the regional flights. For marketing purposes, that's good enough to keep claiming it.
 
jayunited
Posts: 1275
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Thu Feb 14, 2013 3:26 pm

Quoting kngkyle (Reply 3):
I think ORD is where it will become interesting.

I don't see why ORD would come into play here AA already competes vigorously against UA on most routes I suspect the new AA will beef up service to CLT, PHL, PHX and perhaps LAS from ORD but that is about it. US as it stands right now only has 3 permanent gates at ORD and UA allows them to some time use and overnight aircraft at 2 other gates that UA owns. So the impact of this merger on ORD would be minimal.

Since UA and US started this codeshare agreement and especially after the CO/UA merger UA quickly reduced the number of non stops between ORD and LAS and PHX (IAM contract language was part of the reason why there where reductions.The old contract states if UA operates more than 50 mainline flights for more than 60 days into these stations they would become full IAM stations covered by the full IAM contract). UA instead chose to funnel those passengers onto US flights which is evident by upcoming spring/summer schedule which would see UA operate only 3 non stops to LAS and 2 non stops to PHX a day on UA metal. I suspect now UA will have to probably operate at least 5-6 non stops daily to LAS and probably 4 non stops to PHX a day. With US now leaving *A probably sometime in the spring or summer if this new contract that UA has with the IAM removes those constraints off LAS and PHX and if other economic factors are right I think UA will increase the number of non stops between ORD and those 2 stations. However I do recognize that the new AA would probably have at least 8-10 nonstops a day to LAS and maybe 10-13 non stops to PHX but other than that I don't see much of a shift coming in the ORD market because UA does not rely on US for flights to PHL or DCA from ORD UA covers those flights with UA metal and as far as CLT I think UA would leave the number of non stops where they are right now and just let the new AA have ORD-CLT market.
 
FriendlySkies
Posts: 3540
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 3:57 pm

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Thu Feb 14, 2013 3:30 pm

Quoting AllegiantFlyer (Reply 7):

Im guessing UA will be jealous that they cant say their the worlds largest airline anymore :P

I don't believe UA has ever directly marketed itself as the world's largest airline since the merger...that is the media's doing. They have been calling themselves the world's 'leading' airline, which is plenty debatable in itself, but they said from the start that being the biggest was never important.
 
klwright69
Posts: 2395
Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2000 4:22 am

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Thu Feb 14, 2013 3:38 pm

UA could revive CO's old GSO hub?
 
delta2ual
Posts: 558
Joined: Mon Dec 03, 2007 11:18 pm

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Thu Feb 14, 2013 3:44 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 1):
Suggestion to Moderators: there should be a consolidated thread for impact on Competitors in general ...

Well I know that both CEO's at DL & UA have go on record to say they would like to see more consolidation. I'm sure that all 3 giants can co-exist just fine. They still have their own strengths and weaknesses. No one airline, no matter how large, can be everything to everyone.
From the world's largest airline-to the world's largest airline. Delta2ual
 
jayunited
Posts: 1275
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Thu Feb 14, 2013 3:59 pm

Quoting delta2ual (Reply 14):
Well I know that both CEO's at DL & UA have go on record to say they would like to see more consolidation. I'm sure that all 3 giants can co-exist just fine. They still have their own strengths and weaknesses. No one airline, no matter how large, can be everything to everyone

I think you are correct the airline industry and Wall Street wanted to see this merger go thru. Since these mergers began you can see the stabilization that has come into the U.S. airline industry. Airlines like Delta Southwest and United have been removing excess capacity from their respective markets for years and now with the AA/US merger most excess capacity will be removed from their markets as well. Dispite the high fuel prices the U.S. airline industry was profitable overall last year and a few years ago it would have never been possible because there were too many airlines with to many planes in the sky and far to few passenger on them to make a profit. So all four of these giant airlines will be able to co-exist with each other and once all the mergers are done I really do think the U.S. industry will finally see some stability and profitability year after year.
 
MountainFlyer
Posts: 486
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:19 am

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Thu Feb 14, 2013 4:04 pm

With AA's codeshare with AS and now the merger with US, I wonder if AA/US and DL could challenge UA's current presence in SEA.
SA-227; B1900; Q200; Q400; CRJ-2,7,9; 717; 727-2; 737-3,4,5,7,8,9; 747-2; 757-2,3; 767-3,4; MD-90; A319, 320; DC-9; DC-1
 
deltairlines
Posts: 6877
Joined: Mon May 24, 1999 4:47 am

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Thu Feb 14, 2013 4:13 pm

Quoting MountainFlyer (Reply 16):
I wonder if AA/US and DL could challenge UA's current presence in SEA.

UA has more flights this summer than Delta in Seattle (47 to 43), but Delta serves more destinations (15 to 11), has about 50% more seats (UA has a lot more props and RJs into SEA than Delta) and Delta has a lot more international lift (UA has NRT, DL has NRT on a larger plane, HND, KIX, PVG, PEK, CDG and AMS). I'd say Delta is a much larger player in Seattle than United, even before the AS relationship comes in.
 
eastern747
Posts: 578
Joined: Tue Oct 17, 2006 5:34 am

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Thu Feb 14, 2013 4:24 pm

Hang on to hats folks, pink slips are about to fly....On top of the lousy economy, the state of the world etc. There are alot of airline folks who are going to be out of a job because of this merger. Most probably many of whom can see their retirement not to far off. Here we go again with moral in the toilet and attitude issues starting. I remember when DL took over Northeast (BOS based) it took years to combine "those damn yankees and rebels" to work together. You see it now with CO and UA. Good luck to all those affected.
 
Bobloblaw
Posts: 1680
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2012 1:15 pm

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Thu Feb 14, 2013 4:35 pm

Quoting ORD+Boy+2" class="quote" target="_blank">ORD Boy 2 (Thread starter):
Would UA possibly organically build a hub in the south between IAD and IAH? And if so,

The days of building new hubs are over for Legacies. UA cant afford to spend the capital needed to offset AA and DL's presence in the SE

Quoting point2point (Reply 2):
Well, certainly DEN-CLT, where UA/US do a code share, will no longer be workable

Any US/UA hub will likely see a reduction in capacity. In exchange there will be an increase in capacity between US and AA hubs.

For ORD, it means AA will probably pick up a few share points on UA. AA will now have strong city presence in places like BDL (hopefully upgauged ay A319s or E90s), RST, SYR., BUF, PVD (will probably get new ORD service). In the west there will be little impact on AA's ORD competitiveness.

Youll probably see UA sub UAX for mainline on ORD-PHL and ORD-CLT.

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 5):
Before I get flamed, I know this is a pipedream. I would love to see UA build a hub at MEM that could serve as a leach to DFW and also serve the south.

No,,, with IAH only 400 miles away that makes no sense

Quoting commavia (Reply 4):
Actually, while I don't have the precise numbers in front of me (but being as this is A.net, I'm sure someone will), I suspect that the last decade has been far less a case of AA

I think youre mostly right, though I also think AA has lost a bit to UA in ORD. I also think that AA plus UA mainline in ORD today is only slightly larger than UA mainline was in 2000. In 2000, UA was at 450 mainline and AA at 350.

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 13):
UA could revive CO's old GSO hub?

No. CO never was successful there and that was CO Lite. Plus its far too close to IAD. No more hubs guys, no more hubs. Its all a dream. Only LCCs like Spirit will be building new hubs
 
FlyPNS1
Posts: 5272
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 1999 7:12 am

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Thu Feb 14, 2013 4:44 pm

It will likely hurt UA a bit in the DC market as they lose a valuable codeshare partner in DC. I know many people who stay loyal to UA in DC because they can still earn miles on US flights out of DCA. With US gone, all UA has is the IAD hub, but IAD is a weak hub for domestic flights in perimter. It may also up open more slots at DCA to LCC's (since AA will divest away some slots at DCA) which may further weaken the IAD hub.
 
BC77008
Posts: 345
Joined: Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:48 pm

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Thu Feb 14, 2013 4:52 pm

Quoting cageyjames (Reply 10):
Im guessing UA will be jealous that they cant say their the worlds largest airline anymore :P


Poor Delta, they're number 3 again   
"He waited his whole damn life to take that flight. And as the plane crashed down he thought 'Well isn't this nice...'"
 
stxbohn
Posts: 85
Joined: Sun Apr 01, 2007 1:44 am

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Thu Feb 14, 2013 6:38 pm

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 13):
UA could revive CO's old GSO hub?

Funniest thing I've seen on the boards in years! Although I'm partial to GSO and dearly miss the CoEx/United Express IAH-GSO direct, survey says - X. I can't see how there'd be anywhere close to enough O/D traffic in GSO to support even a pass-through hub. But maybe with the loss of the Star Alliance fly thru Charlotte on US to get to GSO, we may get the IAH-GSO flight back.

Back on topic, United will just have a big hole in the southeast that you can only get to from the hubs and just do without any intra-southeast flying options.
 
ORD Boy 2
Topic Author
Posts: 298
Joined: Fri Aug 25, 2000 12:25 pm

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Thu Feb 14, 2013 9:30 pm

The only options I could see are RDU, TPA, MCO, or FLL for mini hubs in the SE for UA. They can not just let the region go.
 
jporterfi
Posts: 463
Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2012 6:25 am

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Thu Feb 14, 2013 9:38 pm

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 5):
Before I get flamed, I know this is a pipedream. I would love to see UA build a hub at MEM that could serve as a leach to DFW and also serve the south.  

That is similar to my dream. UA should increase its presence in ATL (and create a hub there) that could capture some traffic that would otherwise connect at DFW, CLT, DCA, or MIA. Then we would really have a fun situation in ATL: DL, WN/FL, and UA all under one roof!   
 
DualQual
Posts: 674
Joined: Sun Mar 05, 2006 6:10 pm

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Thu Feb 14, 2013 10:35 pm

Quoting AllegiantFlyer (Reply 7):

SMI/J never used the phrase "largest". It was always "leading".
There's no known cure for stupid
 
Bobloblaw
Posts: 1680
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2012 1:15 pm

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Thu Feb 14, 2013 11:02 pm

Quoting ORD Boy 2 (Reply 23):

The region won't go. Just because they don't have a hub in the region doesn't mean they can't be competitive for most of the traffic. Ok so UA won't carry any GSO to BHM traffic. Big deal.
 
jayunited
Posts: 1275
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Thu Feb 14, 2013 11:52 pm

Quoting BC77008 (Reply 21):
Poor Delta, they're number 3 again   

Not exactly although AA will be the largest in terms of the number of planes, employees, and perhaps passengers served ( I say perhaps because UA lost tons of passengers as a result of our horrible service in 2012 this could happen to AA if they drop the ball). Both DL and UA will still serve more destinations around the world than the new AA and I don't really think any one of these airlines care about who is the largest airline I think once all these mergers are finally done it will really come down to the service they offer their customers which is something the airlines have totally forgotten about. Over the last decade it has been a race to the bottom but with 4 airlines soon to be controlling at least 70% of the U.S. market HOPEFULLY this will change and it will be a race to se too can be on top in terms of customer service on the ground and in the air to all passengers and not just those in first class.
 
BDL757
Posts: 180
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 1:49 am

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Thu Feb 14, 2013 11:57 pm

Quoting BC77008 (Reply 21):
Poor Delta, they're number 3 again

I don't really care how big we are; as long as I have a secure and profitable company then I'm happy. Especially one that gives me the profit sharing that I got today!!

Quoting jayunited (Reply 27):

  
 
jporterfi
Posts: 463
Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2012 6:25 am

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Fri Feb 15, 2013 1:50 am

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 26):
jporte

Agreed. Just because they stop codesharing with US because of the merger doesn't mean that they will lose out on all the the traffic from the South. Traffic will just connect at IAH and IAD.
 
Freshside3
Posts: 1200
Joined: Fri Nov 30, 2012 2:11 am

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Fri Feb 15, 2013 2:03 am

Quoting kngkyle (Reply 3):
I think ORD is where it will become interesting. The two new behemoths sharing a full size hub. Will American try to be more competitive at ORD? Or continue giving up market share to UA in favor of fortress hubs? What even is the breakdown of destinations and capacity between UA and AA at ORD now? How has UA changed at ORD since the merger?

I personally hope to see both UA and AA fight for ORD dominance, if for no other reason than it would be fun to watch.

ORD is indeed the market to watch. A few days ago, in the USA Today, they mentioned that AA has 35% of the market share there, before merging with US......so they really didn't lose that much ground in the UA/CO merger, which is surprising. So the margin between the two carriers will be even closer, once the AA/US merger comes about.

Both carriers offer similar types of services, so it's pretty much a "dead heat", when it comes to anything substantial, as far as incentives to change carrier loyalty. But there is one thing that is overlooked, and that is Eastern Europe. Chicago is in the top five of US cities, when it comes to people from these countries, who go over freqently. In essence, a flight from ORD to any of those countries could be a catalyst for people to switch loyalties.

Perhaps AA should revive the idea of their plans to serve BUD from JFK, but have it out of ORD instead. Likewise, in another theoretical example, ORD-KBP on UA would also be workable. And there are a few other possibilities.

One or the other needs to think "outside the box" and boldly stick one of these type of routes on, even if it's seasonal and/or non-daily.

Bottom line is, regardless, ORD is the station to watch, on AA vs. UA.
 
captainstefan
Posts: 338
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 7:53 am

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Fri Feb 15, 2013 2:19 am

Quoting commavia (Reply 4):
Well, yes, although that's been the case continuously for 30 years. Two huge airlines with two huge hubs at the same airport is nothing new at O'Hare, and this merger certainly doesn't change that.


It will be interesting to see what happens on the E concourse - Will US' gates become AA's, DL's, UA's or AC's? I think DL is the frontrunner for them just because DL doesn't need them the least (read that carefully).

Quoting jporterfi (Reply 24):
That is similar to my dream. UA should increase its presence in ATL (and create a hub there) that could capture some traffic that would otherwise connect at DFW, CLT, DCA, or MIA. Then we would really have a fun situation in ATL: DL, WN/FL, and UA all under one roof!


I've heard through the grapevine that DL's little maintenance facility on the north end of the T concourse will be (re)moved, T will be extended 2 gates and UA will share T12 with AA (currently AA occupies T9-T12, UA T13-T15). INteresting to see how the US/AA merger will affect that. I guess one airline will take the gates of both carriers on D and one will take the same on T.

Quoting BDL757 (Reply 28):
Especially one that gives me the profit sharing that I got today!!


           
Long Live the Tulip!
 
User avatar
TWA772LR
Posts: 3796
Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2011 6:12 am

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Fri Feb 15, 2013 2:56 am

Quoting jporterfi (Reply 24):
all under one roof!

That would be epic!

Quoting ORD Boy 2 (Reply 23):
RDU, TPA, MCO, or FLL

They have what I would call a pseudo-regional-mini-hub in FLL with the Silver intra-Florida and Bahamas flights. RDU would be the best chance. It's the least competitive airport out of the ones you listed and the area kinda reminds me of the AUS area. The rest are too far south in Florida and have immense competition with all the LCC's and AA in Miami and also the fact that DL has a huge FF base in MCO. Isn't RDU the largest city in the south thats not a hub for a major airline, perhaps besides MEM?
Beauty is watching a 787 bank to make a short final. Bliss is watching that 787 with a good beer. Nirvana is all of that with a beautiful woman on your side.
 
lhcvg
Posts: 1255
Joined: Mon May 25, 2009 2:53 pm

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Fri Feb 15, 2013 5:47 am

Quoting jporterfi (Reply 29):
Agreed. Just because they stop codesharing with US because of the merger doesn't mean that they will lose out on all the the traffic from the South. Traffic will just connect at IAH and IAD.

Yup. Let's face it: DL and to some extent US have pretty much all the intra-SE/South traffic locked up anyway. For the vast majority of travel, flying to everything beyond the South or SE U.S., UA can do just fine.
 
User avatar
AVLAirlineFreq
Posts: 778
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2008 1:31 am

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Fri Feb 15, 2013 4:26 pm

It wouldn't surprise me to see UA add either a few new routes and/or frequencies from IAD, IAH, and/or ORD into the southeastern U.S. IAD, in particular, is under-connected or not connected at all to a number of decent-sized markets in the region. It may be that UA makes the strategic decision to not add capacity in and out of the region (versus intra-regional flying, which will largely be left to DL, AA, and WN to a lesser extent), and that a combination of IAD and EWR adequately provides sufficient lift along the East Coast. IAH has a few holes in and out of the region, but not as many as IAD.
 
delta2ual
Posts: 558
Joined: Mon Dec 03, 2007 11:18 pm

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Fri Feb 15, 2013 4:57 pm

Quoting BC77008 (Reply 21):
Poor Delta, they're number 3 again   

Yes, poor Delta. If they keep doing what they have been the past few years, I'm sure they're crying all the way to the bank.
From the world's largest airline-to the world's largest airline. Delta2ual
 
tommy767
Posts: 4658
Joined: Sat Aug 09, 2003 12:18 pm

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Fri Feb 15, 2013 5:27 pm

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 32):
They have what I would call a pseudo-regional-mini-hub in FLL with the Silver intra-Florida and Bahamas flights. RDU would be the best chance. It's the least competitive airport out of the ones you listed and the area kinda reminds me of the AUS area. The rest are too far south in Florida and have immense competition with all the LCC's and AA in Miami and also the fact that DL has a huge FF base in MCO. Isn't RDU the largest city in the south thats not a hub for a major airline, perhaps besides MEM?

I agree. Best chance for a new hub in the UA network is FLL. Would be cool to see them eventually expand to FLL-AUS/RDU/BOS/LAX/PAP/STI/SJU or something like that.
"KEEP CLIMBING" -- DELTA
 
oc2dc
Posts: 451
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2013 4:38 am

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Fri Feb 15, 2013 6:17 pm

I'm curious about how much feed UA will lose when US breaks away from STAR. I tried to book a flight from DCA to NRT on the US website yesterday and all of my options were code shares through ORD and over to NRT on UA.

This should be fun to watch.
I'm not complaining, I'm critiquing...
 
brilondon
Posts: 3018
Joined: Sun Aug 21, 2005 6:56 am

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Fri Feb 15, 2013 6:27 pm

Why do they need a new hub in the South East? Where was UA's old hub in the SE?
Rush for ever; Yankees all the way!!
 
User avatar
STT757
Posts: 13223
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2000 1:14 am

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Fri Feb 15, 2013 6:32 pm

Quoting ORD+Boy+2" class="quote" target="_blank">ORD Boy 2 (Thread starter):
Would UA possibly organically build a hub in the south between IAD and IAH?
Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 19):
The days of building new hubs are over for Legacies.

I agree that those days are over, if it were 1993 and not 2013 I would say UA absolutely will develop a new Southeast domestic hub. The obvious option would be RDU, nice business community with business ties to both the Pharmaceutical companies based in New Jersey (EWR) and the tech companies of Northern California (SFO). However unfortunately it's not 1993, otherwise I should be in High School right now, and RDU or any other new hub are not going to be created. First RDU is loaded with competition, especially from WN, B6 etc.. Also unless a hub can support something like a 50/50 split between domestic and International it's not an option. Obviously right now for UA EWR, IAD, IAD, ORD, SFO and LAX meet or almost meet that criteria. CLE and DEN do not

Quoting ORD+Boy+2" class="quote" target="_blank">ORD Boy 2 (Reply 23):
The only options I could see are RDU, TPA, MCO, or FLL for mini hubs in the SE for UA.
Quoting tommy767 (Reply 36):
Best chance for a new hub in the UA network is FLL.

FLL is the only new investment I could see UA undertake, and that's a small possibility imo. As mentioned you can generate at least 50% of the traffic from International routes, and it's a popular domestic destination. The only issue is the LCC presence, particularly from B6 and NK to the Caribbean and Latin America. If UA were somehow able to make NK disappear from the FLL-Latin America/Caribbean market and somehow encourage B6 to concentrate their growth into the region from MCO then perhaps UA would have a chance. Otherwise I agree that I think UA has enough hubs.

Quoting brilondon (Reply 38):
Why do they need a new hub in the South East? Where was UA's old hub in the SE?

They had two, one in MCO and one in MIA. Although both were very small, right now UA probably has more flights from BOS and LAS then they ever did from MCO or MIA when they were hubs in the '90s.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
tommy767
Posts: 4658
Joined: Sat Aug 09, 2003 12:18 pm

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Fri Feb 15, 2013 6:56 pm

Quoting STT757 (Reply 38):
They had two, one in MCO and one in MIA. Although both were very small, right now UA probably has more flights from BOS and LAS then they ever did from MCO or MIA when they were hubs in the '90s.

BOS and LAS are larger simply because they have more frequency to hubs. MCO and MIA had more cities and I'm pretty sure during the hayday of the MIA operation, they definitely had more seats.

Just for fun I did play around with UA.com and tried to figure out the largest spokes. IIRC, BOS, LAS, MCO, and DFW were all between 39-41 flights a day in the middle of february.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 38):
If UA were somehow able to make NK disappear from the FLL-Latin America/Caribbean market and somehow encourage B6 to concentrate their growth into the region from MCO then perhaps UA would have a chance. Otherwise I agree that I think UA has enough hubs.

One user in a thread a while back commented about how UA plans to ramp up FLL and asked for additional staffing there. He also was surprised that while UA has added SFO and IAD, that is really the only expansion that has taken place thus far. So there could be more adds down the line. Best bet though is on Silver Airways or another UAEX affiliate to add'l cities in the Northern Caribbean and Bahamas. Only other mainline flight I can see in the near future is LAX-FLL -- simply because they don't operate LAX-MIA and DL and AA have been hot and cold with LAX-FLL for quite a few years now.
"KEEP CLIMBING" -- DELTA
 
User avatar
STT757
Posts: 13223
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2000 1:14 am

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Fri Feb 15, 2013 7:02 pm

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 39):

BOS and LAS are larger simply because they have more frequency to hubs. MCO and MIA had more cities and I'm pretty sure during the hayday of the MIA operation, they definitely had more seats.

I don't know, LAS gets lots of 757-300s, 757s and 737-900s. I bet it's close. MIA domestically was 733s to most domestic cities, once daily.

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 39):
est bet though is on Silver Airways or another UAEX affiliate to add'l cities in the Northern Caribbean and Bahamas.

I always thought Florida would be a nice home for the Q400s;

FLL-
NAS, EYW, MCO, TPA, FPO
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
tommy767
Posts: 4658
Joined: Sat Aug 09, 2003 12:18 pm

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Fri Feb 15, 2013 7:14 pm

Quoting STT757 (Reply 40):
I don't know, LAS gets lots of 757-300s, 757s and 737-900s. I bet it's close. MIA domestically was 733s to most domestic cities, once daily.

These days LAS gets 757s, 320s, and 739s to all the hubs. There might be an occasional 753 to LAX or IAH.

You also have to factor in that MIA had 741 and 742 service to MVD, EZE, GIG, GRU, SCL etc.
"KEEP CLIMBING" -- DELTA
 
T5towbar
Posts: 430
Joined: Fri Feb 27, 2009 2:06 am

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Fri Feb 15, 2013 8:20 pm

Quoting STT757 (Reply 38):
FLL is the only new investment I could see UA undertake, and that's a small possibility imo. As mentioned you can generate at least 50% of the traffic from International routes, and it's a popular domestic destination. The only issue is the LCC presence, particularly from B6 and NK to the Caribbean and Latin America. If UA were somehow able to make NK disappear from the FLL-Latin America/Caribbean market and somehow encourage B6 to concentrate their growth into the region from MCO then perhaps UA would have a chance. Otherwise I agree that I think UA has enough hubs.

I think that the landing fees and other charges are a lot lower than MIA. So there is a small buildup at FLL. More mainline will be heading that way.
A comment from an Ex CON: Work Hard.....Fly Standby!
 
User avatar
STT757
Posts: 13223
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2000 1:14 am

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Fri Feb 15, 2013 8:31 pm

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 41):

You also have to factor in that MIA had 741 and 742 service to MVD, EZE, GIG, GRU, SCL etc.

MVD was always served from JFK, via EZE , with a 763.

With regards to MIA by 1997 the only 747 they flew was to EZE.

MIA-GRU 1 763, 1 777- MIA-GIG 1 763- MIA-SCL 1 763, MIA-EZE 1 742

Quoting T5towbar (Reply 42):

I think that the landing fees and other charges are a lot lower than MIA. So there is a small buildup at FLL. More mainline will be heading that way.

And UA's facilities at FLL are superior theirs at MIA.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
MAH4546
Posts: 24600
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Fri Feb 15, 2013 8:54 pm

Quoting STT757 (Reply 43):
Quoting T5towbar (Reply 42):

I think that the landing fees and other charges are a lot lower than MIA. So there is a small buildup at FLL. More mainline will be heading that way.

And UA's facilities at FLL are superior theirs at MIA.

For now. UA is going back to H/J. LAN just applied for building permits for it's new lounge in the D/E gates, so should be soon. It's LAN/TAM moving that has been holding back UA.
a.
 
jporterfi
Posts: 463
Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2012 6:25 am

RE: Impact Of AA/US On UA

Fri Feb 15, 2013 9:15 pm

Quoting captainstefan (Reply 30):
T will be extended 2 gates and UA will share T12 with AA (currently AA occupies T9-T12, UA T13-T15).

Who will get the two new gates? UA? That would give them usage of 6 gates- impressive! I can't imagine AA is happy about having to share T12 with UA though; they have a decent sized operation in ATL (for it being a spoke in their network) now that MQ is flying to LGA and has increased frequencies (I think) to MIA.