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jetjack74
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Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sat Feb 16, 2013 8:36 pm

Rumor has it that there was an ALPA/Company meeting yesterday/the day before and that DL made a proposal to AS or DL has been irked by AS recent incursions into DL's markets or AS and AA recent agreements, something went down which got a negative response. Now it appears, from what was said. that DL maybe add a narrowbody pilot base, (either 737/M90/717) in SEA and may add more flights into traditional AS markets and that this is one of the 1st strikes, along with LAX-SEA going mainline in the summer
DL To Start LAX-ANC/BOS/GEG (by FL787 Feb 13 2013 in Civil Aviation)

Now I stress, this is just rumor, but interesting nonetheless
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deltal1011man
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RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sat Feb 16, 2013 9:00 pm

Quoting jetjack74 (Thread starter):

Rumor has it that there was an ALPA/Company meeting yesterday/the day before and that DL made a proposal to AS or DL has been irked by AS recent incursions into DL's markets or AS and AA recent agreements, something went down which got a negative response. Now it appears, from what was said. that DL maybe add a narrowbody pilot base, (either 737/M90/717) in SEA and may add more flights into traditional AS markets and that this is one of the 1st strikes, along with LAX-SEA going mainline in the summer

Not to get into detail but some talk of this about a year and a half ago.

but I'll believe it when i see it. When the base opens and delta starts adding then I'll jump on board. till then..... meh
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HPRamper
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RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sat Feb 16, 2013 9:01 pm

If DL wanted to pick a fight with someone AS is the wrong target. AS would immediately get in bed with AA, cut off all codesharing and immediately make SEA untenable for DL's transpacific routes. DL would be cutting off their nose to spite their face.
 
BigGSFO
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RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sat Feb 16, 2013 9:04 pm

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 2):
If DL wanted to pick a fight with someone AS is the wrong target. AS would immediately get in bed with AA, cut off all codesharing and immediately make SEA untenable for DL's transpacific routes. DL would be cutting off their nose to spite their face.

Agreed. I'm picturing (exaggerated of course) a Real Housewives of the Airlines having a screaming match over cocktails.
 
sr117
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RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sat Feb 16, 2013 9:29 pm

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 2):

If DL wanted to pick a fight with someone AS is the wrong target. AS would immediately get in bed with AA, cut off all codesharing and immediately make SEA untenable for DL's transpacific routes.

Seems to me that AA's bed is busy enough right now to deal with another partner coming into play.

AS equally gains from DL funneling passengers to AS flights to SEA and PDX, so it's not like Alaska is doing this for charity or to help out DL, it's a mutual benefit thing. And all the arguments as to why a DL/AS merger would not work out hold true for AA/AS as well.

In any case, it does not seem wise for either DL or AS to completely concede a market to the other party, so it seems wise for both to "invade" routes previously only flown by one partner. Routes like LAX-SEA on DL metal will be much appreciated by DL's frequent flyer base in the west coast.
 
MaverickM11
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RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sat Feb 16, 2013 9:48 pm

Quoting jetjack74 (Thread starter):

Now I stress, this is just rumor, but interesting nonetheless

Their schedule changes seem to reflect a squabble. LAXSEA on DL, then additional LAXSEA on AS, then LAXSJC and ATLANC on DL, then LAXANC/GEG--I can't remember when the AA+AS announcement fit in but it was in there too. I think there's definitely something to the rumor. At some point DL is going to have to do something in SEA if it is going to be a Tpac hub--AS is not going to cut it as a source of passengers in the long run.
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
realsim
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RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sat Feb 16, 2013 9:52 pm

The fact that DL is adding capacity in routes like LAX-SEA is not a friendly sign IMO. AA could have done it years ago as they were bigger than DL in LAX, and despite that, they let that route exclusively for AS. The same could be said about AS moving their SEA-MIA to FLL and then AA starting SEA-MIA in their own metal, until that happened SEA was the largest metropolitan area without non-stop service from MIA with AA metal but they didn't add any flight.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 2):
If DL wanted to pick a fight with someone AS is the wrong target. AS would immediately get in bed with AA, cut off all codesharing and immediately make SEA untenable for DL's transpacific routes. DL would be cutting off their nose to spite their face.

The big problem here for AA is that they don't have aircraft for starting the routes DL currently serves from SEA to Asia, so I don't see that happening.
 
NWAROOSTER
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RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sat Feb 16, 2013 9:56 pm

I do not think any US "mega carrier" would want to merge with or take over Alaska Airlines. Alaska Airlines basically serves an essential service to some of the state of Alaska's more remote destinations. I also think the federal government would strongly oppose any merger with Alaska Airlines. Alaska Airlines is needed by the people of the state of Alaska.
It's possible dismemberment would not be tolerated.   
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GentFromAlaska
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RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sat Feb 16, 2013 9:57 pm

As an outsider. I've noticed the best way to monitor the proverbial pis*ing contest between AS and one of their partners if one does exist is to check the flight options to cities AS does not fly. SEA-BNA for example.

More often than not more flight options will populate with the primary partner. AS SEA-DFW and AA DFW-BNA. Every now and then I could switch to AA in SEA if I originated in Alaska (the state).

Across the last four or so years its been a partner reversal in that there are generally more DL options via ATL. SEA-ATL-BNA before AS flew to ATL or SEA-ATL-BNA on DL. It use to be AA. It used to be difficult to find a fare on DL out of SEA. Although the 767 redeye was a nice flight it left about 12:30 A.M when AA was their primary dance partner. .

Back in the day CO and NW would also populate but not like AA. It was page after page of AA options either to DFW or ORD.
Man can be taken from Alaska. Alaska can never be taken from the man.
 
luv2fly
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RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sat Feb 16, 2013 9:58 pm

One day the rumor is that they are buying them. Noe the honeymoon is over
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BigGSFO
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RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sat Feb 16, 2013 10:01 pm

Does anybody have any statistics on how much international feed AS provides to DL at SEA?
 
JetAmericaS80
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RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sat Feb 16, 2013 10:11 pm

Quoting NWAROOSTER (Reply 8):

This is a common myth/urban legend/misconception amongst those in the airline industry. I think this ship has sailed. AS (whether they are willing to publicly admit it or not), is no-longer "married" to it's roots in the 49th state. AS has made it clear that the future of intra-Alaska flying will be primarily in the form of QX Q400s and -400Fs, which will sooner or later be replacing the fleet of aging -400 Combis. Alaska knows that large jets will be better utilized in lower-48 flying, especially when more -400Fs come on-line. Is it sad? Yes. Is it an end to an era? Yes. But has the writing been on the wall? Yes. Alaska has shown with it's dramatic shift in capacity from Mexico to Hawaii that it will continue to adapt to the ever-changing airline environment, and will make whatever necessary changes it must to survive and remain profitable. If you sincerely think that AS will continue to dominate, serve, and in some cases over-serve cities in Alaska simply to hold true to it's name/roots/pride, you are sorely mistaken. Money talks. The environment has changed yet again, and so will AS.

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SANFan
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RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sat Feb 16, 2013 10:28 pm

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 6):
Their schedule changes seem to reflect a squabble. LAXSEA on DL, then additional LAXSEA on AS, then LAXSJC and ATLANC on DL, then LAXANC/GEG--

Don't forget AS is going to start SEA-SLC in early April... (This was announced back in early November and maybe it's the first straw on the camel's back.)

bb

[Edited 2013-02-16 14:29:30]
 
mpdpilot
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RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sat Feb 16, 2013 10:33 pm

Quoting JetAmericaS80 (Reply 12):
This is a common myth/urban legend/misconception amongst those in the airline industry. I think this ship has sailed. AS (whether they are willing to publicly admit it or not), is no-longer "married" to it's roots in the 49th state. AS has made it clear that the future of intra-Alaska flying will be primarily in the form of QX Q400s and -400Fs, which will sooner or later be replacing the fleet of aging -400 Combis. Alaska knows that large jets will be better utilized in lower-48 flying, especially when more -400Fs come on-line. Is it sad? Yes. Is it an end to an era? Yes. But has the writing been on the wall? Yes. Alaska has shown with it's dramatic shift in capacity from Mexico to Hawaii that it will continue to adapt to the ever-changing airline environment, and will make whatever necessary changes it must to survive and remain profitable. If you sincerely think that AS will continue to dominate, serve, and in some cases over-serve cities in Alaska simply to hold true to it's name/roots/pride, you are sorely mistaken. Money talks. The environment has changed yet again, and so will AS.

Very well put!!

Everytime someone mentions AS being bought, there is this overwelming response of "DL/AA would never operate all those flights in AK." But I ask, why is AS operating them then? Airlines don't operate routes because they like them or because they feel they have some moral obligation to. Airlines operate a route because it makes money either directly or indirectly. So like JetAmericaS80 points out the success or failure of the routes in AK will be financially driven not emotionally driven. I think that is the case regardless of who is operating them.

Hey that might be an idea for a new airline. Surely AS wouldn't put up much of a fight to keep those routes... Just a thought.

A little more on topic, I don't think there is any squabble here. DL and AS are simply starting and operating routes based on where they think they can make money. And remember, they can't work together on a route. So if DL thinks that LAX-SEA needs additional seats, it is illegal for them to suggest that AS adds a flight. All they can do is add their own flight. Same with AS. if AS thinks there needs to be more seats on SEA-ATL, they have to add them their selves.

I'll call squabble when AS buys 787s and starts SEA-NRT. Until then, I think it is DL and AS building their networks where they think they can make money.
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RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sat Feb 16, 2013 10:43 pm

Quoting luv2fly (Reply 10):
One day the rumor is that they are buying them. Noe the honeymoon is over

OK, just a few months ago the CEO's of both DL & AS meet in SEA and made a "big announcement" this was speculated to be a take over, but instead it was announced that both carriers were creating stronger ties together, DL flew a 744 in as a back drop, and AS employees in mass were solicited to attend. Now, just months later we are being told that these carriers are at each others throats and DL is going to encroach on AS's turf.

Lets be realistic, these two carriers would not have just tossed together this stuff, only to unravel it soon afterwards. IMO, AS & DL entering each others markets is a way of killing off the other carriers that fly those same routes. The combined AS & DL schedule between LAX - SEA for example, has both VX and UA on it, although they are no where close to the amount of departures DL & AS have, DL & AS can easily squash the competition together, then they can dominate a busy business market. DL putting its metal into AS country is not in retaliation, but more an act of co-operation.

These carriers did not become the powerhouses that they are, by making flimsy agreements with partners, just to toss them away in just a few months, only to get into a pissing match with each other. Like AS did to B6 on SEA-ANC, AS would offer triple miles SEA-LAX or something like that, if DL and AS were in a real pissing match.
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yellowtail
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RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sat Feb 16, 2013 10:50 pm

There are lots of opportunities for competing airlines to talk to each other informally and suggest opportunities. I have seen it happen over and over again
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RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sat Feb 16, 2013 11:24 pm

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 6):
and ATLANC on DL

What is so unusual about this particular route? It has been operated before as has CVG-ANC and SLC-ANC......all of them were operated before DL had any agreement with AS.
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MaverickM11
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RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sat Feb 16, 2013 11:42 pm

Quoting mayor (Reply 16):
What is so unusual about this particular route?

It was loaded pretty late for a June start, and given the back and forth between DL and AS it stood out. The route by itself is not unusual.
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deltal1011man
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RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sun Feb 17, 2013 1:26 am

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 5):
GEG
Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 5):
ATLANC

These two I don't agree with. AS doesn't fly any of these. I get that maybe it takes a few(very small) amount of people off AS but i think its kinda stretching it. JMO

Quoting NWAROOSTER (Reply 7):

I do not think any US "mega carrier" would want to merge with or take over Alaska Airlines. Alaska Airlines basically serves an essential service to some of the state of Alaska's more remote destinations. I also think the federal government would strongly oppose any merger with Alaska Airlines. Alaska Airlines is needed by the people of the state of Alaska.

If it were true, IMO its not....but Delta can't just shut down AS flying if it is EAS. So they would have Delta flying or another carrier doing it.

Having said that, AS's cost aren't "that" much higher than Delta.
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cargolex
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RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sun Feb 17, 2013 2:07 am

Quoting realsim (Reply 6):

The big problem here for AA is that they don't have aircraft for starting the routes DL currently serves from SEA to Asia, so I don't see that happening.

DL flies it's international destinations from SEA with the A330-300 and 763, and as of this summer, the 744 will join. A merged AA/US has that equipment and now except for the 744, but now also has the 777-300ER. Admittedly, redeploying the US A333 on routes from SEA would require reassigning some Europe-East coast routes to 767s.

I doubt AA would look to reestablish SEA-Japan again though, having given it up in better times.

Quoting JetAmericaS80 (Reply 11):
This is a common myth/urban legend/misconception amongst those in the airline industry. I think this ship has sailed. AS (whether they are willing to publicly admit it or not), is no-longer "married" to it's roots in the 49th state. AS has made it clear that the future of intra-Alaska flying will be primarily in the form of QX Q400s and -400Fs, which will sooner or later be replacing the fleet of aging -400 Combis.

Can you point us to a source for these conclusions? Because this very much does not seem like an accurate estimation of future plans for Alaska Air Cargo.
 
BoeingGuy
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RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sun Feb 17, 2013 2:15 am

Quoting cargolex (Reply 19):
I doubt AA would look to reestablish SEA-Japan again though, having given it up in better times.

AA gave up SEA-NRT in the worst of times, not better times. They dropped it just a few months after 9/11. They dropped SJC-NRT in 2006. Those are AA's losses and NH's gains.
 
BigGSFO
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RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sun Feb 17, 2013 2:21 am

Quoting cargolex (Reply 19):
I doubt AA would look to reestablish SEA-Japan again though, having given it up in better times.

Maybe JL will pick this up, once their 787's are flying again.
 
hatbutton
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RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sun Feb 17, 2013 2:45 am

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 18):

Having said that, AS's cost aren't "that" much higher than Delta.

Did you mean AS's costs are lower than DL? Because AS has a CASM much lower than DL's.
 
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enilria
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RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sun Feb 17, 2013 3:07 am

Quoting jetjack74 (Thread starter):

From what I've heard, the new routes in AS markets are a result of AS announcing a tighter deal with AA in LAX. It could either be anger or resignation that without DL being AS primary LAX partner they need to do stuff themselves.

Otoh, if DL starts adding routes from SEA (other than LAX) then they are clearly angry.
 
deltal1011man
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RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sun Feb 17, 2013 3:10 am

Quoting hatbutton (Reply 22):
Did you mean AS's costs are lower than DL? Because AS has a CASM much lower than DL's.

crap, wrong way. I don't think AS's cost are that much lower than DLs.

Or the key factor. United. I don't really understand how UA can have two west cost hubs but by some act of God DL's cost would be too high for a hub at SEA. (my personal guess is most of the people who say Delta "can't do it" really mean "I don't want Delta to do it")
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SuperDash
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RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sun Feb 17, 2013 3:12 am

This latest tiff seemed to start when Alaska added SEA-SLC (at what I would call Delta's best times of the day). There is no question those flights were added to poach Delta's connect traffic at SLC. Had Alaska flown departure times that complimented Delta's schedule and filled in some gaps, it may have been more tolerable. (Don't forget the 2nd SEA-ATL that was added late last year at another Delta prime slot)

Since that announcement, Delta has added SEA-LAX and LAX-SJC. One could argue that LAX-SJC might have just been collateral damage since AS doesn't own that market. But the most bizarre addition was the 2 days a week LAX-ANC. If that's not a subtle baseball bat to the head, I'm not sure what is.

Personally, I think the next 2 years are going to be fascinating as 3 global airlines do battle royal for passengers. I would expect Delta to want 1 of 2 things from Alaska. Join SkyTeam, or we move 20 CRJs into the Seattle market by midnight. I expect that the New AA, might and probably will fly SEA-LAX themselves in the future.

Stay tuned, the Earth is still moving and what you see today, could look really different in 2 years.
 
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RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sun Feb 17, 2013 4:17 am

Quoting JetAmericaS80 (Reply 11):
AS has made it clear that the future of intra-Alaska flying will be primarily in the form of QX Q400s and -400Fs, which will sooner or later be replacing the fleet of aging -400 Combis.

  

You're mistaken.

AS remains committed to using mainline equipment in all intra-AK markets; Q400 flying, when it comes online, will be used to augment existing service, providing additional frequencies that these markets want/need, but additional mainline flights couldn't financially support.

Also, the five -400 combis will eventually be replaced by three additional dedicated -400F freighters. This will provide a much better customer experience overall while enhancing Alaska Air Cargo's ability to perform its current operation and even expand.

Quoting JetAmericaS80 (Reply 11):
Is it an end to an era?

No.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
chrisair
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RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sun Feb 17, 2013 4:43 am

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 26):
Q400 flying, when it comes online, will be used to augment existing service, providing additional frequencies that these markets want/need, but additional mainline flights couldn't financially support.

So QX to Alaska is a sure thing now? I've only heard the company say "if..."
 
Passedv1
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RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sun Feb 17, 2013 5:32 am

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 26):
You're mistaken.

AS remains committed to using mainline equipment in all intra-AK markets; Q400 flying, when it comes online, will be used to augment existing service, providing additional frequencies that these markets want/need, but additional mainline flights couldn't financially support.

I'm not sure where you are getting your information, but not even AS management is sugar coating this like you are. The Q400's are coming to Alaska, it has been announced in no uncertain terms. True,there may be greater frequency than we are currently providing, but once Horizon's Q400's show up in Aalska, Alaska mainline not have nearly the same presence. Horizon is targeted to be in Southeast Alaska in 2013, the hold up is Horizon's .10 RNP FAA certification. Because it is an FAA certification, there is no real way they can predict when it will ACTUALLY happen so no final announcements have been made, but make no mistake, once they get this approval in hand, there will be less Alaska flying in Southeast Alaska. Reading between the lines, the initial flying will probably be KTN-JNU-YAK initially. I bet they dump CDV off to Pen Air or similar. In a few years the plan is to have AS mainline flying to JNU from SEA and ANC with a the freighters coming through every once in awhile.

Yes, it is true that Alaska Air GROUP is committed to serving Alaska but they have ZERO commitment to using main-line equipment.

The arctic flying is 2nd on the chopping block. Not all will be replaced by Horizon, I think a big chunk will go the way of DUT.

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 26):
Also, the five -400 combis will eventually be replaced by three additional dedicated -400F freighters. This will provide a much better customer experience overall while enhancing Alaska Air Cargo's ability to perform its current operation and even expand.

Yes AIR CARGO itself will expand/have a better service, but the amount of PASSENGERS flying Alaska main-line metal will decrease. A big chunk of the intra-Alaska flying is not done with Combis so Horizon coming in and taking the non-combi/freighter flying represents a significant amount of flying. Just a quible, but these are not ADDITIONAL freighters, Alaska is going to end up with 3 freighters, they are converting 2 combi-s to straight freighters and retiring the other 3.

Take a look at the latest MAX order...it is not a coincidence that the number of new planes ordered the last time almost exactly equals the number of 400s and 700's Alaska has. Managements vision is for Alaska mainline to be made up of all 800's and larger.

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 26):

Quoting JetAmericaS80 (Reply 11): Is it an end to an era?
No.

Yes. Just because it's happening slowly over time, doesn't mean it isn't happening. Is AS maineline going to be flying passengers to BET, OTZ, BRW, etc. in 2 years-probably....5 years-maybe...10 years-not a chance.
 
steex
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RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sun Feb 17, 2013 5:46 am

Quoting enilria (Reply 23):
resignation that without DL being AS primary LAX partner they need to do stuff themselves.

I have no information about anything on the matter, but this explanation makes sense from a logic standpoint. If DL's relationship with AS is strong at SEA and weaker at LAX, then DL needs to expand LAX on its own if they are committed to the market.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 24):
I don't really understand how UA can have two west cost hubs but by some act of God DL's cost would be too high for a hub at SEA. (my personal guess is most of the people who say Delta "can't do it" really mean "I don't want Delta to do it")

Perhaps I'm misinterpreting, but I haven't really seen anyone suggest that DL's costs are too high for a hub at SEA in a vacuum. I think people instead are concerned that DL's costs are too high for the other parts of AS's network (particularly within Alaska) if they attempted an acquisition. On the flip side, AS's relatively lower costs would make it very difficult if DL tried to establish its own SEA hub AGAINST AS's existing SEA hub in lieu of an acquisition.
 
hiflyeras
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RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sun Feb 17, 2013 6:10 am

Quoting realsim (Reply 6):
The fact that DL is adding capacity in routes like LAX-SEA is not a friendly sign IMO.

The fact of the matter is that AS flights LAX-SEA are packed. DL got tired of waiting for AS to add more flights so threw some RJ's on the route. No tiff...AS is a victim of their success.

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 26):
AS remains committed to using mainline equipment in all intra-AK markets; Q400 flying, when it comes online, will be used to augment existing service, providing additional frequencies that these markets want/need, but additional mainline flights couldn't financially support.

I haven't heard this and only the BOD knows for certain but talk I've heard is that QX will replace much of the passenger side out of ANC except west coast, ORD and Hawaii. A gradual introduction could start in fall 2013 at the earliest. Additional 737-400 freighters will make the rounds inter-Alaska to replace the loss of cargo space as the Q400 has no room for anything but luggage.
 
Yukon880
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RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sun Feb 17, 2013 6:22 am

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 26):
You're mistaken.

AS remains committed to using mainline equipment in all intra-AK markets; Q400 flying, when it comes online, will be used to augment existing service, providing additional frequencies that these markets want/need, but additional mainline flights couldn't financially support.

Also, the five -400 combis will eventually be replaced by three additional dedicated -400F freighters. This will provide a much better customer experience overall while enhancing Alaska Air Cargo's ability to perform its current operation and even expand.

My residence being where it is...
I look forward to your rebuttal.

Yukon
Pratt & Whitney, In thrust we trust!
 
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RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sun Feb 17, 2013 6:26 am

Quoting PassedV1 (Reply 28):
The Q400's are coming to Alaska, it has been announced in no uncertain terms.

Absolutely. I've not denied this.

I have a feeling you mistakenly believe more Q400s are coming than actually are.

Quoting PassedV1 (Reply 28):
Yes, it is true that Alaska Air GROUP is committed to serving Alaska but they have ZERO commitment to using main-line equipment.

  

Wrong. Mainline equipment will remain.

Quoting PassedV1 (Reply 28):
Take a look at the latest MAX order...it is not a coincidence that the number of new planes ordered the last time almost exactly equals the number of 400s and 700's Alaska has. Managements vision is for Alaska mainline to be made up of all 800's and larger.

Management's vision is to run a safe, reliable operation that provides excellent service and value to its customers, stable, long-term careers for its employees, and a strong return for its shareholders. You don't execute on that by pulling down operations in your namesake region, which still represents a sizable portion of the company's ASMs.

Two thirds of the firm order for -900ERs and MAX aircraft are direct replacement for the inefficient, costly -400/-700 fleet. The remainder is for future growth. This also doesn't take into account the numerous options in place, and allow me to remind you that AS has a history of not only taking up every single option but placing additional orders beyond them. AS now has the flexibility to nearly double the size of the fleet in a very short timeframe if they wish.

Call my analysis "sugar-coating" all you want, but it doesn't change what I've said or detract from the accuracy of what I've said.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
toobz
Posts: 634
Joined: Mon Jan 18, 2010 6:33 am

RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sun Feb 17, 2013 7:14 am

If only DL and AS upper mngt could read all these rumors..lol.

DL and AS are not as emotional as some people think. They will not add flights just to piss each other off. Their only goal is to turn a profit. If flying DL metal on an AS route will do that, then that's what will happen. Same the other way around.

I think what Hiflyer said is more like it..AS not being able to offer the capacity that DL needs. And vice versa. Have you been on a SLC-SEA flight?? Packed. Every time. Same goes for LAX-SEA.
 
questions
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RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sun Feb 17, 2013 7:22 am

Quoting toobz (Reply 33):
DL and AS are not as emotional as some people think. They will not add flights just to piss each other off. Their only goal is to turn a profit. If flying DL metal on an AS route will do that, then that's what will happen. Same the other way around.

I agree. This professional relationship is based on "the motion in the ocean not the size of the boat."
 
threeifbyair
Posts: 939
Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2007 1:44 pm

RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sun Feb 17, 2013 7:23 am

Quoting superdash (Reply 25):
Join SkyTeam, or we move 20 CRJs into the Seattle market by midnight.

Because that'll teach AS how to behave...  

If Southwest can't run the PNW routes profitably, I can't imagine DL would succeed either. Unless there is a surprising demand for 20x daily SEA-MWH service that we don't know about.

Remember that DL barely has enough gate space at SEA for its current operation at peak times. It couldn't add many more flights even if it wanted to, which IMO is still not likely.
 
woodsboy
Posts: 899
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RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sun Feb 17, 2013 7:27 am

Having worked for AS for years and seeing what intra-Alaska flying is in REALITY, AS would be shooting themselves in the head to replace ALL mainline flying with Q400s. With absolutely no capacity for anything but luggage they would be crippled DAILY with the amount of small freight/cargo and mail that every intra-Alaska flight carries every day. I'd shudder to see what summer would look like at Alaska airports with only Q400s available to move the hordes of tourists, they would have to double the number of flights on a daily basis (or more) in ANC, FAI, JNU, etc. It would be a disaster, I cant imagine what the advantage would be other than to hand Era the incentive to expand, Everts, NAC, ACE and PenAir to seriously add cargo capacity and hasten their demise in both reputation and stature. Just one route I'm intimately familiar with having worked it hundreds of time is the FAI-BRW run going back as far as the days of 727 and 732QCs was that a lot of cargo, bypass mail ride those flights and having only 3 freighters in the entire network would render their ability to carry a meaningful amount of cargo, gone. If AS intends to replace all mainline flying in Alaska with Q400s they have already decided to write us off. Are you listening Evert's, PenAir and ERA?
 
EyeSky
Posts: 317
Joined: Fri Aug 25, 2000 4:52 am

RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sun Feb 17, 2013 3:13 pm

Quoting threeifbyair (Reply 35):
Remember that DL barely has enough gate space at SEA for its current operation at peak times. It couldn't add many more flights even if it wanted to, which IMO is still not likely.

True, there are gate limitations for all carriers operating out of the South Satellite at SEA due to the fact it also handles all international arrivals and the vast majority of international departures. DL already operates a number of domestic turns off of gates at Concourse B (which connects to SSAT by train) and is set to position more flights off of Concourse B after the airport-wide airline realignment is completed later this spring. DL has been approved to move their DTW-HND slots to SEA which will also start up later this year.

I tend to agree with previous posts saying that the DL/AS incursions into each other's territory are meant to drive off competition from the likes of VX and F9, who are both being relocted to Concourse B from their current locations at Concourse A to make room for UA. This leaves the former CO gates at Concourse B ripe for expansion by DL who could easily fill up B3, B5, B7 and B9 with both narrow and wide body domestic operations or even international departures. If either VX of F9 were to reduce capacity or even drop SEA completely (which could concievably happen) that would add two more gates (B1 and B11) to the mix that DL could also scoop up to use to promote either domestic or international expansion.

DL could start up satellite SkyClub in the former CO President's Club on Concourse B. DL is also in the middle of a major remodel project in the main terminal which will make their ticketing area very similar to Alaska's 2-Step layout. The new configuration will provide more ticket counter positions than DL had before which they could lease to handle most near term expansion plans that they might have. The VX ticket counters are right next to DL which, again, could be taken up by DL if VX reduced service or was no longer in the picture. Finally, US also has their ticket counters in the same area as DL and VX and their positions could also become available for use by DL if the decision is made to consolidate the existing US ticketing operation with AA in their new location near the middle of the main terminal.

So for these reasons I don't believe that DL is nearly as constrained at SEA as some might think.
 
ridgid727
Posts: 931
Joined: Thu Jul 24, 2008 1:58 am

RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sun Feb 17, 2013 4:43 pm

Quoting SANFan (Reply 12):
Don't forget AS is going to start SEA-SLC in early April... (This was announced back in early November and maybe it's the first straw on the camel's back.)

Curious if these flights are going to operate out of DL gates, or AA gates over on A conourse (i think AA has 2 or 3 gates) or is AS taking up the only open gate on the A concourse gate 1 which was previously used by HP?

The SLC airport website still has it as TBA.
 
GentFromAlaska
Posts: 2666
Joined: Sun Feb 20, 2005 2:21 pm

RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sun Feb 17, 2013 4:55 pm

Quoting chrisair (Reply 27):
So QX to Alaska is a sure thing now? I've only heard the company say "if..."
Quoting PassedV1 (Reply 28):
The Q400's are coming to Alaska,
Quoting PassedV1 (Reply 28):
The Q400's are coming to Alaska, it has been announced in no uncertain terms.

AS has talked the talk about regional flying to Alaska since the mid to late 1990's It hasn't taken off yet. It was about the time they were prototyping large jet RNP in Juneau (JNU) I remember Bill Ayers taking about it on Juneau's KINY radio chat.

I think we need to put some separation between AS using the Q's between SEA and Alaska vs. using them intra-Alaska. I don't see any of it happening unless the regional's are equipped with the RNP technology. If they are I could see them flying intra-Alaska. Not in any certain order between JNU-ANC; JNU-Sitka, Ketchikan, Wrangell, Petersburg and Gustavus for example Maybe even Skagway. ANC-Valdez

The other thing which steers me away from using the regional's between SEA to Alaska is the 73X flight time between SEA-JNU is two hours fifteen to two hours thirty minutes. The Q's by my estimated would take three or more hours. Larger jet service between SEA-ANC is three and and half to four hours A Q might take five hours to accomplish the same flying That's a lot of time in a regional. I'm not sure Alaskan's would tolerate it. AS quite often on a very short fuse has switched the 737 with a larger 738 or 739 as the loads dictate between SEA-JNU The Q's would not be capable of this. Because AS gets a premium fare into much of Alaska when compared to their lower forty eight markets their fares would have to come down which I don't thing they are willing to budge.

In September 1996 when DL ka-bashed their SLC-LAX-SEA-JNU-FAI large jet service they told us they would return some day with regional's. Of course that hasn't happened either. DL to my understanding still owns real property at the airport in Juneau.
Man can be taken from Alaska. Alaska can never be taken from the man.
 
User avatar
DeltaMD90
Posts: 8245
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RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sun Feb 17, 2013 5:10 pm

Quoting toobz (Reply 33):
DL and AS are not as emotional as some people think. They will not add flights just to piss each other off. Their only goal is to turn a profit. If flying DL metal on an AS route will do that, then that's what will happen. Same the other way around.

         I predicted these threads would pop up when I saw the first route come online (AS SLC-SEA was it?) I don't see what is so earth shattering, they aren't a merged entity, and codesharing only goes so far. As others have pointed out, I doubt they'd have that huge announcement in SEA only for them to get into some pissing match a few weeks later.
Ironically I have never flown a Delta MD-90 :)
 
bizjet
Posts: 264
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 1999 10:08 pm

RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sun Feb 17, 2013 5:11 pm

From Alaska's Q4 earning call:

Analyst question: I think it was about a couple of months back, there was a five or six-page press release out between it was from both you and Delta and it talked about a lot of good things going on in Seattle and it talked about the growth of the code share. And it’s obviously been very positive for both of you. And then not too long after that, we see Delta flying from Seattle to Los Angeles, which is obviously important market for you guys. So, I am curious what’s behind that, I don’t know maybe it was just in response to you guys announcing the Seattle Salt Lake service maybe it’s just some funds borrowing between partners what gives there?

Response from Alaska CEO Brad Tilden:

What I would say is that we have extraordinarily good relationship with both Delta and American and there are two domestic alliances or biggest alliances. And I think the partnerships work really, really well. We have kind of a network where we grow, where we fly a lot up and down the West Coast and out of the West Coast. And Delta in particular has all kinds of wide bodies they fly out of Seattle. I think 8 wide bodies a day between Amsterdam and Charles de Gaulle and Narita and Haneda, they are adding and Beijing and Shanghai, so a big picture. It’s an extraordinarily good relationship and we get that what we do in this relationship is we help them fill those wide bodies flying out of Seattle. And then that feed is really important to Alaska, because it helps us justify more 737s flying in places like Seattle-Salt Lake and Seattle-LA and Seattle-New York and so forth. There is once a while in relationships like this, there are little things and you have mentioned a couple of them. And I think there are little things that happened along the edges, but I don’t think we should let them distract any of us from what overall is an exceptionally good relationship.
 
HPRamper
Posts: 4603
Joined: Sat May 14, 2005 4:22 am

RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sun Feb 17, 2013 6:17 pm

Quoting SR117 (Reply 4):
Seems to me that AA's bed is busy enough right now to deal with another partner coming into play.
Quoting realsim (Reply 6):
The big problem here for AA is that they don't have aircraft for starting the routes DL currently serves from SEA to Asia, so I don't see that happening.

I meant an exclusive codeshare...not a merger or buyout.
 
User avatar
usxguy
Posts: 957
Joined: Wed Jan 25, 2006 1:28 pm

RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sun Feb 17, 2013 8:03 pm

Regarding Q400s in Skagway - have you been there?! Wings of Alaska can sometimes have a rough time just landing the Caravan when they have to circle-to-land... the winds coming off the White pass sometimes exceed a solid 40 mph, meaning the Q would have to also take off and climb over the pass... probably possible, but not probable when the winds are coming up Taiyia Straight... there's no way a Q400 has enough room (or rudder) to "drop" into SGY via the valley/pass for landing.

And about AS flying the cargo 734 into Juneau - I believe we still get a daily freighter, in addition to the combi. It may be reduced frequency for the freighter in the winter, but I know I've seen it in JNU at least twice a day in the summer... I mean, how else are all of our crappy tourist shops going to get their made-in-china totem poles & t-shirts?  

The airport's been told to expect the Q400, and as many as 2 on the ground at once in JNU. I suspect the Q400 will operate a mix of SEA-KTN-PSG-JNU/SEA-KTN-WRG-JNU flying and do two JNU-YAK/CDV runs. Right now the flows are pretty complex and AS uses JNU as a "hub" where possible, but I don't think we'll see the Q400s on JNU-ANC... I don't think they'll make it up that far this early on.

Right now we get 5 flights a day to SEA and 4 to ANC - 2 nonstops to SEA, 3 to ANC, and the rest are all milkruns.

But back to the original post, I hope that DL and AS remain partners. I fly on AS 66 a lot - which is an 8PM departure from JNU and arrives SEA between 1050-1120PM. That gives me a prime opportunity to connect to Minnie & Memphis, and sometimes ATL depending on when it leaves. This flight is also a DL codeshare flight.
xx
 
tguman
Posts: 380
Joined: Sun Apr 29, 2001 11:47 pm

RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sun Feb 17, 2013 8:47 pm

Like any good partnership, there is going to be sometimes when one partner wants something the other partner is unable to provide and so the original partner needs to do it themselves. If what people are saying is that LAX-SEA and SEA-SLC are both packed and needing more capacity, then maybe each airline has decided to add their own metal on the route so as to fulfill what they are wanting. This gives the consumer the option of flying DL or AS on that route, instead of being forced on DL or AS. I think both sides will benefit since they will still be codeshare, there will still be FF awards or accrual, and both airlines can sell seats on the other flights. From the outside it may look like a pissing match, but I doubt it really is. DL/AS isn't a joint venture, its a codeshare, if DL doesn't want to do something for AS it doesn't have to and vice versa. I don't see anyone losing out on these new fligths, or the end of the codeshare. Nobody wants to serve Alaska to the extent that AS does, and so AS has been able to serve Skyteam and One World without anyone being mad at them.

Regarding AS/QX into Alaska, the Q400 is a very capable aircraft with great climb performance and I think will do fine in tougher regions of Alaska. And longer regional flights are becoming more the norm. The benefit to is that one is only ever one seat or less away from an aisle, so I personally like it. Just my two cents.

I think AS is brilliant, which is why I am switching to their Mileage Plan. now I can travel them and AA/DL while getting miles at the same time.


TGUman
Life is a Mine Field.
 
BigGSFO
Posts: 2214
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2005 5:27 am

RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sun Feb 17, 2013 9:03 pm

Quoting tguman (Reply 44):
Regarding AS/QX into Alaska, the Q400 is a very capable aircraft with great climb performance and I think will do fine in tougher regions of Alaska. And longer regional flights are becoming more the norm. The benefit to is that one is only ever one seat or less away from an aisle, so I personally like it. Just my two cents.

I like the Q400. With Ala Carte, there's no fighting over the bins and with both front and rear doors, boarding and exiting is quicker.
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 5492
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sun Feb 17, 2013 9:57 pm

Quoting EyeSky (Reply 37):
This leaves the former CO gates at Concourse B ripe for expansion by DL who could easily fill up B3, B5, B7 and B9 with both narrow and wide body domestic operations or even international departures. If either VX of F9 were to reduce capacity or even drop SEA completely (which could concievably happen) that would add two more gates (B1 and B11) to the mix that DL could also scoop up to use to promote either domestic or international expansion.

Are these the old WA gates?

Quoting tguman (Reply 44):
And longer regional flights are becoming more the norm. The benefit to is that one is only ever one seat or less away from an aisle, so I personally like it. Just my two cents.

I've not flown the Q yet but my wife did and thought it was fine for a short haul. I warned her to bring her own soap, though.  

-Dave
-Dave
 
brilondon
Posts: 3018
Joined: Sun Aug 21, 2005 6:56 am

RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sun Feb 17, 2013 10:08 pm

Quoting NWAROOSTER (Reply 7):

I do not think any US "mega carrier" would want to merge with or take over Alaska Airlines. Alaska Airlines basically serves an essential service to some of the state of Alaska's more remote destinations. I also think the federal government would strongly oppose any merger with Alaska Airlines. Alaska Airlines is needed by the people of the state of Alaska.
It's possible dismemberment would not be tolerated.   

Does the state of Alaska subsidize Alaskan on those mandated routes?
Rush for ever; Yankees all the way!!
 
hiflyeras
Posts: 1475
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 6:48 pm

RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sun Feb 17, 2013 10:46 pm

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 46):
Are these the old WA gates?

Someone's dating themself!   I've worked at SEA for 32 years and I don't remember the WA gates for certain but am pretty sure they were on the B concourse. If I recall, since the early 80's it was PanAm and Wien on the A gates, Northwest the S gates, Western, Continental and Delta the B gates, American and Horizon the C gates, Alaska the D gates and United the N gates. Foggy about the C gates...someone else must have been there. Where was Republic? Frontier? Eastern? America West? USAir? Anyone remember?
 
threeifbyair
Posts: 939
Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2007 1:44 pm

RE: Rumor Of DL/AS Squabble

Sun Feb 17, 2013 10:49 pm

Quoting EyeSky (Reply 37):
I tend to agree with previous posts saying that the DL/AS incursions into each other's territory are meant to drive off competition from the likes of VX and F9, who are both being relocted to Concourse B from their current locations at Concourse A to make room for UA. This leaves the former CO gates at Concourse B ripe for expansion by DL who could easily fill up B3, B5, B7 and B9 with both narrow and wide body domestic operations or even international departures. If either VX of F9 were to reduce capacity or even drop SEA completely (which could concievably happen) that would add two more gates (B1 and B11) to the mix that DL could also scoop up to use to promote either domestic or international expansion.

Are all of those B gates available?

I was pretty sure that QX has been using B3 and I don't see B1 listed on the PoS website. WN uses B6, B8, B10, B12, and B14. B2 and B13 do not exist. No idea what is going on at B4.

That would leave B5, B7, B9, B11, and B15 available for DL once sCO is moved to A. How many of those gates are widebody-capable?

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