Freshside3
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ORD Market Share: AA Vs. UA

Sun Mar 10, 2013 2:11 am

Just wondering what the two carriers' market share is currently now in Chicago, and what it is projected to be post-merger?
 
Byrdluvs747
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RE: ORD Market Share: AA Vs. UA

Sun Mar 10, 2013 2:30 am

I cant imagine that US will add too much to AA's position in ORD. the only traffic US brings will come from PHX, PHL, and CLT. Not to mention we dont know how many frequencies will be cut.
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LAXintl
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RE: ORD Market Share: AA Vs. UA

Sun Mar 10, 2013 2:34 am

We had a rather in depth discussion last year, which I cant find at the moment.

But UA was significantly larger then AA.

Also remember WN over at MDW has quite an effect on the overall Chicago market.
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Freshside3
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RE: ORD Market Share: AA Vs. UA

Sun Mar 10, 2013 2:38 am

So, it's like 43% UA and 36% AA, or somewhere thereabouts??
 
LAXintl
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RE: ORD Market Share: AA Vs. UA

Sun Mar 10, 2013 2:39 am

Here you go - quite detailed traffic comparisons:

Chicago O’Hare: AA Vs UA (by LAXintl Sep 19 2011 in Civil Aviation)

=
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Bobloblaw
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RE: ORD Market Share: AA Vs. UA

Sun Mar 10, 2013 2:47 am

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 1):

I don't think ORD will see any cuts from the merger
 
SESGDL
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RE: ORD Market Share: AA Vs. UA

Sun Mar 10, 2013 2:56 am

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 5):
I don't think ORD will see any cuts from the merger

It will related to rationalizing capacity on routes that both AA/US operate. ORD-PHX/CLT/PHL/DCA will see changes in frequency and equipment. Other than that, as you said, I don't see ORD losing any service as a result of the merger.

Jeremy
 
FSDan
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RE: ORD Market Share: AA Vs. UA

Sun Mar 10, 2013 5:17 am

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 6):
ORD-PHX/CLT/PHL/DCA will see changes in frequency and equipment.

US doesn't fly ORD-DCA, but the other three routes will probably consolidate a bit.
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phlwok
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RE: ORD Market Share: AA Vs. UA

Sun Mar 10, 2013 5:33 am

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 6):
It will related to rationalizing capacity on routes that both AA/US operate. ORD-PHX/CLT/PHL/DCA will see changes in frequency and equipment. Other than that, as you said, I don't see ORD losing any service as a result of the merger.

If anything, service and/or aircraft size will probably increase on these routes as they'll all be hub to hub and other routes may be rationalized to flow traffic through the hubs.
 
ckfred
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RE: ORD Market Share: AA Vs. UA

Sun Mar 10, 2013 3:39 pm

I've read that US has a 2% market share at ORD. I would expect that service from ORD to PHL, CLT, and PHX will have fewer frequencies that the current combined frequencies of AA and US. But, I would also expect that all service will be mainline (Eagle flies some ORD-PHL frequencies and all ORD-CLT frequencies for AA), as well as some upgauging of mainline aircraft. AA flies mostly MD-80s to PHL and PHX. So, those should move to 738/A320/A321.

You might see some rationalizing of service from ORD to the Southeast, i.e., less RJs flying to some desitnations in favor of connecting via CLT. By the same token, AA might add some flights to Northeast cities and cut some flights out of the US operation at BOS.

In the discussions between US management and the AA unions, Doug Parker said that he believes that AA management has neglected ORD and focused on growth at MIA and DFW. He plans to make AA more competitive in Chicago and the upper Midwest, trying to get some market share from UA and WN that has been lost over the last 10 years or so.

What Parker told Chicago employees while trying to get union support for the merger, and what ultimately happens may be two different things.
 
ripcordd
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RE: ORD Market Share: AA Vs. UA

Sun Mar 10, 2013 3:44 pm

I see ORD growing under DP they will have the right size planes for a ton of markets and they will get a lot of traffic that US gives to UA at ORD.
 
realsim
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RE: ORD Market Share: AA Vs. UA

Sun Mar 10, 2013 4:15 pm

Quoting ckfred (Reply 9):
I would expect that service from ORD to PHL, CLT, and PHX will have fewer frequencies that the current combined frequencies of AA and US. But, I would also expect that all service will be mainline (Eagle flies some ORD-PHL frequencies and all ORD-CLT frequencies for AA), as well as some upgauging of mainline aircraft. AA flies mostly MD-80s to PHL and PHX. So, those should move to 738/A320/A321.

I expect ORD-PHL/DCA/PHL to go all mainline, and some frequency increases to DCA, as US doesn't fly that route and their passengers currently fly UA on that route.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 9):
In the discussions between US management and the AA unions, Doug Parker said that he believes that AA management has neglected ORD and focused on growth at MIA and DFW. He plans to make AA more competitive in Chicago and the upper Midwest, trying to get some market share from UA and WN that has been lost over the last 10 years or so.
Quoting ckfred (Reply 9):
I see ORD growing under DP they will have the right size planes for a ton of markets and they will get a lot of traffic that US gives to UA at ORD.

  

I posted this in another thread, but here it seems more appropiate:

Just less than 3 years ago, AA had 4 daily S80 to DEN, 8 daily 737/S80 to MSP, 4 daily S80 to ATL and 5 daily S80 to EWR. On the other side, neither MCI nor IND had then mainline service and now will see it again.

This is my personal opinion: if less than 3 years ago AA was able to fly many more mainline flights than today, when the cost difference between UA and AA was huge and AA was struggling to avoid BK, I would expect some mainline flights to be resumed. It is clear that some E175s will replace some S80s, but I think that most of them will be used to provide first class in current ERJ flights. IMO, ORD is where the new AA will try to compete with more impetus, because there are no gate (LAX) nor slot problems (JFK) and the difference between AA and UA isn't that big. Of course we could see some growth from DFW, MIA or even PHL and CLT, but I think that the main battlegrounds will be ORD, LAX and JFK, in this order.
 
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IrishAyes
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RE: ORD Market Share: AA Vs. UA

Sun Mar 10, 2013 5:55 pm

For those curious, as of this week, here is how the market share breaks down between UA and AA at ORD:

Seats
United: 726,405
American: 541,556
US Airways: 47,282

ASKs
United: 1,290,407,850
American: 921,283,398
US Airways: 64,642,398

Frequencies
United: 7,920
American: 6,142
US Airways: 282

Capacity share

By Seats:

United: 47%
American: 35.9%
US Airways: 0.6%

By ASKs:

United: 41%
American: 29.3%
US Airways: 2.1%

By Frequency:

United: 49.1%
American: 38.1%
US Airways: 1.7%

Aircraft movements

Peak:

United: 46.2%
American: 43.8%
US Airways: 1.2%

Off-peak:

United: 47.6%
American: 43.2%
US Airways: 1.3%
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CIDFlyer
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RE: ORD Market Share: AA Vs. UA

Sun Mar 10, 2013 6:51 pm

I agree with all the above. ORD-PHL/CLT will go all mainline since they will be hub to hub now. Routes currently being served by Eagle ERJ-145's to major business markets will probably see E-75's/CR7's and A319's. I could also maybe see them throwing in some CR7's/E75's to some smaller destinations in the midwest like DSM, CID, OMA, FSD, DAY etc etc maybe 1-2x daily to compete with UA's CR7s/E70s and mainline flights in some instances to give some of these markets flights with 1st class. Not only will AA be competing with UA in the heartland but also with DL at MSP/DTW for market share. DL has been real good as of late in upgrading smaller markets with larger RJ's and mainline so that will also probably play a factor too.
 
jayunited
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RE: ORD Market Share: AA Vs. UA

Sun Mar 10, 2013 8:26 pm

Quoting realsim (Reply 11):
I expect ORD-PHL/DCA/PHL to go all mainline, and some frequency increases to DCA, as US doesn't fly that route and their passengers currently fly UA on that route.

AA already flies nonstop every hour from ORD to DCA as does UA and in some cases both UA and AA have 2 nonstops per hour so will not be adding flights to DCA from ORD. And UA does not get a lot passengers from US on this route most of our passengers are UA passengers. Contrary to popular belief UA does not get a ton of passengers from US here in Chicago. While UA and US primarily share passengers coming in from and flying to PHX and LAS there is not that many flights between both carriers to these destinations from ORD. During the peak season you might have 9 flights a day between both carriers to PHX and 8 or 9 flights a day to LAS so there isn't much passenger traffic being swapped.

While US 2% market share here at ORD will go to AA it still won't be enough to put AA on top traffic wise here in Chicago.
 
realsim
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RE: ORD Market Share: AA Vs. UA

Sun Mar 10, 2013 9:02 pm

Quoting jayunited (Reply 14):
AA already flies nonstop every hour from ORD to DCA as does UA and in some cases both UA and AA have 2 nonstops per hour so will not be adding flights to DCA from ORD.

Not true for AA. For example, tomorrow UA operates 12 mainline and 3 Express flights from ORD to DCA, while AA only operates 6 mainline and 3 Eagle flights, so UA has 6 more flights. This is why I said that it wouldn't surprise me a frequency increase now that the new AA will be the largest airline at DCA.

For PHL, each UA, AA and US have 7 daily flights, but only US is all mainline, so I don't think the new AA will have so many flights (14). They could drop the 5 daily Eagle flights, and have something like 9-10 daily mainline flights between both hubs.
 
MIflyer12
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RE: ORD Market Share: AA Vs. UA

Sun Mar 10, 2013 9:40 pm

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 12):
For those curious, as of this week, here is how the market share breaks down between UA and AA at ORD:

Seats
United: 726,405
American: 541,556
US Airways: 47,282

Thanks for the data. Do these sets include the United Express & American Eagle carriers?
 
Beardown91737
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RE: ORD Market Share: AA Vs. UA

Sun Mar 10, 2013 10:29 pm

Quoting jayunited (Reply 14):
Contrary to popular belief UA does not get a ton of passengers from US here in Chicago. While UA and US primarily share passengers coming in from and flying to PHX and LAS there is not that many flights between both carriers to these destinations from ORD.


That was what I was most curious about in how ORD and the US hubs will blend in. For US to have 8 mainline to CLT daily sounds high. Obviously some of that traffic was funneled through CLT from the SE, but it would also make sense that some is transferred to UA at Chicago, not just to LAS, but to a lot of other destinations, some of which AA does not serve from Chicago. PDX, SMF, and GEG are the bigger ones, but there are a lot of little ones as well. So the X factor would how much traffic goes to UA in Chicago, how much of that is to places AA already serves, and how many current pax would stay on Star instead of switching to AA.

ORD-PHX sees 6 A320/321 from US and 4 MD-80s + 1 7x8 from AA. This will probably lose the MD-80s and gain a couple A320s or 738s. If all the PHX doomsayers are right, it would probably drop to 5 daily mainline (non-MD-80).

ORD-PHL is probably a good business route and would probably settle on 10-12 mainline a day. Currently US has 7 mainline and AA has 4 MD-80 + 2 CR7.
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jcwr56
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RE: ORD Market Share: AA Vs. UA

Sun Mar 10, 2013 10:32 pm

Just to throw this in here...

Parker plans to meet with Chicago's Mayor.

http://www.chicagobusiness.com/artic...airways-ceo-agrees-to-meet-emanuel
 
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IrishAyes
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RE: ORD Market Share: AA Vs. UA

Sun Mar 10, 2013 10:58 pm

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 16):
Thanks for the data. Do these sets include the United Express & American Eagle carriers?

Yes.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 9):
n the discussions between US management and the AA unions, Doug Parker said that he believes that AA management has neglected ORD and focused on growth at MIA and DFW.

AA's management did not neglect ORD, but rather neglected to take care of matters that indirectly impacted ORD and the range of options to help the hub develop and grow. Pre-bk costs were an issue and lack of right-sized aircraft to serve the market properly put ORD in a very bloated position. Things should smooth out when AA exits Ch. 11 and the new E-jets come in.
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point2point
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RE: ORD Market Share: AA Vs. UA

Sun Mar 10, 2013 11:13 pm

Quoting jcwr56 (Reply 18):
Just to throw this in here...

Parker plans to meet with Chicago's Mayor.

http://www.chicagobusiness.com/artic...anuel

Wow!

I noticed in this article that Parker, as well as Horton, each received a letter from Illinois Senior Senator Dick Durbin (D), and this letter is also signed by Illinois Junior Senator Mark Kirk (R). This letter urges the new AA/US to be supportive of the continuing O'Hare expansion project. Both UA and AA recently filed a lawsuit against the City of Chicago opposing O'Hare expansion. But also stressed in this letter is that the new AA/US needs to understand that O'Hare is an economic engine for the City of Chicago, with a reminder that the merger would "face regulatory scrutiny before being approved."

It looks like there's some ball that's got to be played to get this merger approved, huh? Will UA have to stand alone?

 

[Edited 2013-03-10 16:15:56]
 
jayunited
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RE: ORD Market Share: AA Vs. UA

Mon Mar 11, 2013 1:06 am

Quoting realsim (Reply 15):
Not true for AA. For example, tomorrow UA operates 12 mainline and 3 Express flights from ORD to DCA, while AA only operates 6 mainline and 3 Eagle flights, so UA has 6 more flights. This is why I said that it wouldn't surprise me a frequency increase now that the new AA will be the largest airline at DCA.

My mistake I assumed that AA still had hourly flights to DCA from ORD during the hours of 6am thru 7pm. I should have checked the flight schedule to make sure that was still the case.
 
Bobloblaw
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RE: ORD Market Share: AA Vs. UA

Mon Mar 11, 2013 2:51 am

Quoting Beardown91737 (Reply 17):

You're way way too pessimistic on ORD-PHX. You're saying AA/US will go from 11 to 5 RTs??? No way. Even in the worst case scenario where PHX isn't a hub, AA will have more than 5. Fares will no increase much on this route due to WN. Thus the market don't shrink much.
 
Beardown91737
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RE: ORD Market Share: AA Vs. UA

Mon Mar 11, 2013 3:16 am

Nope I was just scoffing at the PHX doomsayers. Sorry for the confusion. From my standpoint it would probably be at least 8, depending on how much UA interchange stays over and how much is gained or lost in the *A to OW turnover. I will likely be one of the ones that stays with UA when I no longer can earn UA miles on US. The good news for US/AA is that my reason is I don't travel enough to split my miles between more than UA and WN.
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strfyr51
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RE: ORD Market Share: AA Vs. UA

Mon Mar 11, 2013 3:56 am

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 1):

Us Air really should add to American's market share @ ORD from PHL, CLT and PHX. I don't know the Number of flights the market will bear But if they have 4 per day? that would be significant to both ORD and DFW, Then they can right size a Lot of other stations as both American And US Air both serve SFO with Trans cons . with the combined force you could consider that Hub Level service. If they feed international flight from SFO? Could become a Powerhouse to rival UAL
I have to say in watching both airlines closely over the years. They 're a most formidable combination.