LAXintl
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SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Mon Mar 25, 2013 6:10 pm

Well probably no surprise with the Wright Amendment handcuffs coming off at Dallas Love Field in 2014, the prospects have Southwest Airlines officials excited.

In an interview the chief commercial officer Bob Jordan calls the lifting a "fabulous opportunity".

He says the airline knows its North Texas customers prefer nonstop service, and as such expect to add "substantial number of not just new destinations but also new flights" out of Love Field.

More specifically he certainly expects Southwest to connect Love with its major cities like Chicago, Las Vegas and Phoenix with new nonstop service.

They also see boost in DAL departures by 30-40 new daily flights with airport enplanements climbing 25% "easily".

Also part of the lifting of restrictions SWA sees "modest reductions" coming to some of its shorthaul routes from Love which today are being propped up by customers going to beyond markets.

But all in all Bob Jordan says “The sum total of all this will be more flights, more passengers out of Love Field.”

Story:
http://www.dallasnews.com/business/a...om-dallas-love-field-handcuffs.ece

All in all the Metroplex market will become even more competitive by late 2014. Good for consumers.

=
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RL757PVD
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Mon Mar 25, 2013 6:30 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
They also see boost in DAL departures by 30-40 new daily flight

At that level, I dont expect a lot of new cities...

If you figure:
MDW 7x
LAX,LAS, ATL, PHX and BWI at 5x
SFO, LGA at 4x
SEA, MCO and BNA at 3x

You are at about 50 flights right there and only 10 cities (all of which at that levels are still at a massive frequency disadvantage)
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enilria
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Mon Mar 25, 2013 6:33 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
They also see boost in DAL departures by 30-40 new daily flights with airport enplanements climbing 25% "easily".
Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
Also part of the lifting of restrictions SWA sees "modest reductions" coming to some of its shorthaul routes from Love which today are being propped up by customers going to beyond markets.

I wasn't aware they were able to add flights given the gate reduction. Well, if you think about it, this is a really big deal for the rest of the WN network.

They are essentially saying they are going to add 60+ beyond perimeter RTs fractionally funded by ~20 short trips. Allowing for stage variance, that's like adding about 100 departures (switching from roundtrips to departures and deducting the short flights at a 50% stage discount) all of which are 3-4 hours in average stage. That's say 350 block hours net added and works out to about 30 aircraft. Guess what? WN is basically fleet neutral, so they are going to take 30 planes from somewhere in their network to fund this. Care to guess where?

#1 Choice: ATL
 
HPRamper
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Mon Mar 25, 2013 6:34 pm

With DAL finally becoming a legitimate connection point we could very likely see fewer flights at current east-west transit airports such as PHX, ABQ, STL and MCI. I think the vast majority of WN traffic will eventually be routed across the country through one of DAL, DEN and MDW.
 
AAIL86
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Mon Mar 25, 2013 6:37 pm

Agreed that its good news for the Dallas side of the metroplex.

Unlike the late-1970s when DFW was a brand new airport, the D/FW area is now large enough to fully support the use of both airports. This will cetainly effect pricing levels to a degree but otherwise it will be business as usual at both facilites.
I wonder if WN at some point pushes futher and requests the abillity to fly to Mexico from Love ...
The way to see by faith is to shut the eye of reason - Benjamim Franklin
 
LAXintl
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Mon Mar 25, 2013 6:45 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 2):
Well, if you think about it, this is a really big deal for the rest of the WN network.

  

Yes the removal of the artificial quarantine around Love will indeed create ripples around the Southwest network.

Not only does the company gain the ability to finally connect its North Texas home and customers nonstop across the nation, it does allow for easier of passenger (and cargo) connection flow across the network.

Also for the first time that I recall seeing, SWA discusses what we long suspected - many DAL shorthaul markets are there to provide beyond links, and their frequency is above what the market can support on its own. Certainly going to be a loss I think for airports like ABQ, ELP, OKC, TUL, MSY, etc that see lots of 1-stop continuing service today imo.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
alggag
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Mon Mar 25, 2013 6:47 pm

As a Houston based WN flyer it's going to feel strange to connect in DAL while on my way to somewhere other than LBB.  
Quoting AAIL86 (Reply 4):
I wonder if WN at some point pushes futher and requests the abillity to fly to Mexico from Love ...

Maybe, but the next battleground will probably be to get the gate limit removed. Trying to get international service would be a huge battle as they would have to get the Wright Amendment 100% removed to allow the international flying "in principle" just to get into a HOU 2.0 type battle for international facilities. 
 
BigGSFO
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Mon Mar 25, 2013 6:51 pm

Give Dallas some true, national competition. Good for consumers. Doesn't AA still have some gates there? Most likely they will add some nonstops to protect some traffic to higher yielding markets (i.e. LGA, LAX, etc.).

Does Love have much room to expand? With the restrictions off the opportunity is there not just for WN, but for everyone else too.
 
MaverickM11
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Mon Mar 25, 2013 6:54 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 5):
many DAL shorthaul markets are there to provide beyond links, and their frequency is above what the market can support on its own. Certainly going to be a loss I think for airports like ABQ, ELP, OKC, TUL, MSY, etc that see lots of 1-stop continuing service today

I think this is the bigger, not really surprising, news here--I'm more curious where the current DAL routes will end up circa 2015 and beyond than what will be added.

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 7):
Give Dallas some true, national competition

NK beat them to the punch.

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 7):
Doesn't AA still have some gates there? Most likely they will add some nonstops to protect some traffic to higher yielding markets (i.e. LGA, LAX, etc.).

I'd like to think AA has learned from the last couple times they tried this but I doubt it. Then again I suspect US will not allow such a pointless waste of money and resources.
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
alggag
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Mon Mar 25, 2013 6:54 pm

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 7):
Does Love have much room to expand? With the restrictions off the opportunity is there not just for WN, but for everyone else too.

Not really - a consequence for removing the perimeter rule was the institution of a 20 gate rule, 16 of which for WN.
 
sdoyon
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Mon Mar 25, 2013 7:03 pm

Any thoughts on how much (if any) DAL-HOU will be reduced? I have no doubt they can fill most of these seats with O&D pax, but 25 seems a little high--maybe 20?

Without a doubt, MAF/LBB/AMA won't stay at 6x daily--I see these as 2 daily tops. This will free up for places like DEN, MDW, LAS, LAX, OAK, BOS, and LGA (I'm pretty sure DAL-LGA is within the LGA perimeter, but I could be wrong).
 
Beardown91737
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Mon Mar 25, 2013 7:07 pm

Quoting alggag (Reply 9):
a consequence for removing the perimeter rule was the institution of a 20 gate rule, 16 of which for WN.

Assuming 15-16 hours a day of operation (6AM to 9 or 10PM), how many departures could WN schedule from 16 gates?
135 hrs PIC (mostly PA-28) - not current. Landings at MDW, PIA, JAN.
 
AA737-823
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Mon Mar 25, 2013 7:09 pm

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 7):
Does Love have much room to expand? With the restrictions off the opportunity is there not just for WN, but for everyone else too.

No, it's hemmed in on all sides, really, by lakes, roads, hoses, etc.
BUT- given how large aircraft (747) have served it in the past, aircraft size is not an issue.
Given how many customers have transited there in the past, and again in recent years, that sort of infrastructure isn't an issue, either.
All in all, I don't think there is any need for expansion, EXCEPT this 20-gate rule nonsense, but unlike above posters, I believe it is here to stay, for another thirty years anyhow. But it limits things pretty severely.
16 gates are for WM, 2 for UA, and 2 for AA/DL. The language in the agreement says that if a new carrier wants in (jetBlue, Virgin, and airTran were the names thrown around at the time), then everyone has to play nice and voluntarily share their gates with them. Yeah, right. That'll happen.
 
sdoyon
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Mon Mar 25, 2013 7:10 pm

Quoting Beardown91737 (Reply 11):
Assuming 15-16 hours a day of operation (6AM to 9 or 10PM), how many departures could WN schedule from 16 gates?

I think WN would be ecstatic if they could get 10 departures per gate per day out of DAL, or around 160 flights a day. Any more than that and they run the risk of jamming up the entire operation when a 40-minute turn suddenly goes tech.

[Edited 2013-03-25 12:11:49]
 
usairways85
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Mon Mar 25, 2013 7:12 pm

No offense but the author also states that Continental leases/owns 2 gates at DAL.
 
alggag
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Mon Mar 25, 2013 7:13 pm

Quoting sdoyon (Reply 10):
Any thoughts on how much (if any) DAL-HOU will be reduced? I have no doubt they can fill most of these seats with O&D pax, but 25 seems a little high--maybe 20?

Depending on the time of day some of the loads can be quite low. For example, the last time I flew my booked flight was cancelled (mechanical) and all passengers from my flight were accommodated on the next flight with enough room still to spare for standby passengers that themselves were originally booked on even later flights! That said, they would have to step very carefully on making any adjustments as a lot of passengers that fly this route are on full fare tickets and count on basically just being able to show up at either DAL or HOU at anytime of the day and getting on the next available flight.
 
Alias1024
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Mon Mar 25, 2013 7:19 pm

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 3):
With DAL finally becoming a legitimate connection point we could very likely see fewer flights at current east-west transit airports such as PHX, ABQ, STL and MCI.

I doubt you see too many losses around PHX, STL, or MCI. I tend to think the buildup at DAL will be about better serving the local market and adding non-stops that overfly the previous connecting points, not moving connections through DAL instead of places like PHX or MCI.

The stations I think are going to get hurt the most are the ones that WN used to route their DAL customers out to non-Wright airports. It will be airports in Texas and the border states that will see scehdule trims. ABQ, OKC, MSY, HOU, AUS, SAT, and ELP might all see a few flights lost as that connecting traffic from DAL is reduced.

This will be the final nail in ABQ as a decent connecting point for WN, as it was really the most logical place for connections when traveling from DAL to cities like PHX, LAX, SAN, and LAS. We've already seen ABQ lose much of its prominence for connections at WN as DEN has been built up. The shift from a 733 heavy fleet to 73G also made it easier for east coast to west coast passengers to overfly ABQ instead of connecting there, so the longer haul marginal markets like TPA, PDX and MCO were either reduced or eliminated from ABQ. They'll still sell connections as the schedule allows, but I think ABQ is going to get squeezed a little more from this with lost frequencies to DAL and a few out west that took lots of connecting passengers, and could end up somewhere around 35-40 flights a day, where a decade ago it was almost 70.
It is a mistake to think you can solve any major problems with just potatoes.
 
commavia
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Mon Mar 25, 2013 7:26 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
They also see boost in DAL departures by 30-40 new daily flights with airport enplanements climbing 25% "easily".

Just as expected - "substantial growth" is likely to amount to a few dozen new departures. A marked increase, for sure, but I don't expect it will have all that dramatic a net effect. I suspect probably around 60 new departures to new beyond-Wright markets, with around 2/3 of that incremental departure growth from new flights, and the other 1/3 from displacing shorthaul departures.

Will be interesting to see how it goes ...

Quoting AAIL86 (Reply 4):
Unlike the late-1970s when DFW was a brand new airport, the D/FW area is now large enough to fully support the use of both airports. This will cetainly effect pricing levels to a degree but otherwise it will be business as usual at both facilites.

  

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 7):
Doesn't AA still have some gates there? Most likely they will add some nonstops to protect some traffic to higher yielding markets (i.e. LGA, LAX, etc.).

AA still holds leases on 2 gates at DAL that will likely be getting well-used come next year. I suspect AA will fly a fairly predictable pattern to major U.S. O&D centers and major hubs - at a minimum ORD, LGA, LAX and likely MIA, plus possibly other markets like DCA, SFO, etc. Given the capacity constraints, I doubt it will total more than around 20 daily departures.
 
alggag
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Mon Mar 25, 2013 8:26 pm

Quoting Alias1024 (Reply 16):
The stations I think are going to get hurt the most are the ones that WN used to route their DAL customers out to non-Wright airports. It will be airports in Texas and the border states that will see scehdule trims. ABQ, OKC, MSY, HOU, AUS, SAT, and ELP might all see a few flights lost as that connecting traffic from DAL is reduced.

I don't think HOU will see any real noticeable reductions. Keep in mind that this will be happening around the time that HOU will likely be turning into WN's gateway to Central America on top of its existing duties as a big domestic station.

[Edited 2013-03-25 13:27:15]
 
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AVENSAB727
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Mon Mar 25, 2013 8:30 pm

Quoting alggag (Reply 6):

Maybe, but the next battleground will probably be to get the gate limit removed. Trying to get international service would be a huge battle as they would have to get the Wright Amendment 100% removed to allow the international flying "in principle" just to get into a HOU 2.0 type battle for international facilities. 

I see, I can see AA fighting that. I can only wonder what could happen if SWA wins the right to fly internationally from DAL.
Always look on the bright side of Life!
 
KELPkid
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Mon Mar 25, 2013 8:45 pm

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 7):



Give Dallas some true, national competition. Good for consumers. Doesn't AA still have some gates there? Most likely they will add some nonstops to protect some traffic to higher yielding markets (i.e. LGA, LAX, etc.).

I'm thinking a merged/undergoing merger AA is going to have bigger fish to fry, and the whole Love Field debacle is going to be but a distant memory...   Especially if a merged AA headquarters ends up in PHX.
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usflyguy
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Mon Mar 25, 2013 8:48 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 2):
WN is basically fleet neutral, so they are going to take 30 planes from somewhere in their network to fund this. Care to guess where?

#1 Choice: ATL

I'll say you're just as right on this as you were with saying the code-share was never going to happen...

By then the ROIC should be on track and growth will happen.
My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
 
LAXintl
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Mon Mar 25, 2013 9:32 pm

Here is a quick and dirty of the top O&D metros from DFW that fall outside the DAL perimeter.

Gives a bit of clue where SWA might want to go.

Los Angeles - 4,021
New York - 3,186
Chicago - 2,697
Washington D.C. - 2,659
San Francisco - 2,541
Las Vegas - 2,240
Atlanta - 2,219
Denver - 1,920
Miami - 1,653
Orlando - 1,416
Seattle - 1,306
Boston - 1,188
Philadelphia - 1,088
Phoenix - 1,031
Minneapolis - 900
Detroit - 787
San Diego - 746
Salt Lake - 733
Charlotte - 655
Tampa - 608
Portland - 549
Milwaukee - 524
Nashville - 473
Cleveland - 462
Raleigh - 450
Pittsburgh - 414
Jacksonville - 398
Indianapolis - 394
Sacramento - 362
Columbus - 432
Cincinnati - 316
Reno - 313
Hartford - 311
Tucson - 307

=
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Cactus739
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Mon Mar 25, 2013 9:38 pm

Quoting KELPkid (Reply 20):
Especially if a merged AA headquarters ends up in PHX.

Not going to happen.
You can't fix stupid.... - Ron White
 
AA737-823
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Mon Mar 25, 2013 9:46 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 17):
AA still holds leases on 2 gates at DAL that will likely be getting well-used come next year. I suspect AA will fly a fairly predictable pattern to major U.S. O&D centers and major hubs - at a minimum ORD, LGA, LAX and likely MIA, plus possibly other markets like DCA, SFO, etc. Given the capacity constraints, I doubt it will total more than around 20 daily departures.

I respectfully disagree.

AA tried DAL... ORD, MCI, STL, and... one other place that escapes me at the moment.
It didn't work.
It didn't work with F100's back at the turn of the century.
It didn't work with MD-80s a few years ago.
It didn't work with ERJ's the year after that.

I don't know how successful DL is with DAL-MEM (I think they're capitalizing on people who don't know the difference between DAL and DFW... their pax, as compared to us CO DAL veterans, always look dazed and confused). But I don't expect that to be long-term, either. Maybe ATL or something... we'll see.
 
INFINITI329
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Mon Mar 25, 2013 9:55 pm

Quoting sdoyon (Reply 10):
I'm pretty sure DAL-LGA is within the LGA perimeter, but I could be wrong).

You are correct LGA-DAL is 1380 mi.....inside the 1500 mi perimeter rule   
 
william
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Mon Mar 25, 2013 10:01 pm

Quoting AVENSAB727 (Reply 19):

Bifg

Quoting AVENSAB727 (Reply 19):
Quoting alggag (Reply 6):

Maybe, but the next battleground will probably be to get the gate limit removed. Trying to get international service would be a huge battle as they would have to get the Wright Amendment 100% removed to allow the international flying "in principle" just to get into a HOU 2.0 type battle for international facilities.

I see, I can see AA fighting that. I can only wonder what could happen if SWA wins the right to fly internationally from DAL

There is a gate cap at Love field, unlike Hobby.
 
panam330
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Mon Mar 25, 2013 10:02 pm

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 14):
No offense but the author also states that Continental leases/owns 2 gates at DAL.

How is that offensive? They're United gates now that CO is gone.

Quoting cactus739 (Reply 23):
Quoting KELPkid (Reply 20):
Especially if a merged AA headquarters ends up in PHX.

Not going to happen.

   It will stay in Texas until hell freezes over.
 
wwtraveler99
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Mon Mar 25, 2013 10:44 pm

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 24):
AA tried DAL... ORD, MCI, STL, and... one other place that escapes me at the moment.

Looks like AUS is the one that escaped you.


Also maybe the rumored deal with Boeing/Ryanair/Southwest has a little truth to it. Now it makes even more sense.

They will need some planes.


WW
 
commavia
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Mon Mar 25, 2013 11:10 pm

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 24):
AA tried DAL... ORD, MCI, STL, and... one other place that escapes me at the moment.
It didn't work.
It didn't work with F100's back at the turn of the century.
It didn't work with MD-80s a few years ago.
It didn't work with ERJ's the year after that.

All of that is meaningless in telling us how AA may perform going forward for one critical reason: AA in the past was never able to simultaneously fly the right routes and the right aircraft from DAL. AA at various times was able to do one or the other, but not both. Ultra-low-density, all-premium F100s and 1-class 50-seat RJs are suboptimal for flying longhaul from DAL, which were the only markets AA could ever hope to compete in, anyway (not AUS, MCI, etc.).
 
MaverickM11
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Mon Mar 25, 2013 11:19 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 29):
AA in the past was never able to simultaneously fly the right routes and the right aircraft from DAL

I think more importantly, AA doesn't need to be in DAL any more than it needs to be in MDW, or FLL, when it can compete much more effectively with much more scale a few miles to the west. It can try with the right plane on the 'right' route and it will be clobbered right back to DFW like it was before, *or* a post bankruptcy, merged AA can compete effectively from its powerhouse hub and actually inflict some meaningful damage on DAL.
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
usairways85
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Mon Mar 25, 2013 11:37 pm

Quoting panam330 (Reply 27):
How is that offensive? They're United gates now that CO is gone.

I was making the point that the author couldn't even get the simple fact that CO hasn't existed in over a year, so should the article be seen as just some more PR hype around Wright.
 
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Tigerguy
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Mon Mar 25, 2013 11:45 pm

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 31):
I was making the point that the author couldn't even get the simple fact that CO hasn't existed in over a year

The author was not referring to CO existing today. In explaining the parts of the 2006 compromise and the events that were scheduled to happen in the future, one of the parties was the still-existing CO.

Quote:
Love Field’s facilities would be remodeled or replaced, with an all-new 20-gate concourse to replace all existing gates at the 1958-era airport. Southwest would control 16 gates, with Continental Airlines Inc. and American Airlines each controlling two.
Good night, and keep watching the skis. Uh, skies.
 
wnflyguy
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Mon Mar 25, 2013 11:47 pm

I think DAL will become 737-800 heavy in OCT 2014.
I see the morning line up like this.
6am LAX--737-800
6am LGA--737-800
6am BWI--737-800
6am SFO--737-800
6am PHX--737-800
6am BOS--737-800
6am ATL--737-800
6am DEN--737-800
6am LAS--737-800
6am MDW--737-800
6am STL
6am AUS
605am MSY
605am ELP
605am HOU
605am SAT.


I see DAL also getting a few a one day flights like
1 SNA
1 FLL
1 MKE
1 PVD
1 SEA
1 PDX
1 SJU
1 MSP
1 PHL
1 PIT
1 BDL
1 BUF
1 RDU
1 OAK
I also see a 9 or 10 pm bank to major cities.
wnfg 

[Edited 2013-03-25 16:53:32]

[Edited 2013-03-25 16:55:10]
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
commavia
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Mon Mar 25, 2013 11:56 pm

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 30):
I think more importantly, AA doesn't need to be in DAL any more than it needs to be in MDW, or FLL, when it can compete much more effectively with much more scale a few miles to the west. It can try with the right plane on the 'right' route and it will be clobbered right back to DFW like it was before, *or* a post bankruptcy, merged AA can compete effectively from its powerhouse hub and actually inflict some meaningful damage on DAL.

I don't really disagree with you.

I don't think the convenience of Love Field, nor for that matter Southwest, is quite the scary competitor it might have once been, and as such, I don't think the opening of Love Field is going to have quite as dramatic an impact on the DFW hub as some have predicted in the past.

I was simply making the point that, either way, the relative success or failure of past AA incursions into Love are not necessarily an accurate predictor of future outcomes, since AA will now be freed of several inhibitions that had limited its ability to compete optimally in the past.
 
joeljack
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Tue Mar 26, 2013 12:05 am

Don't forget about OMA! Remember, this wouldn't be happening if it wasn't for the US Senator from Nebraska that pushed the Wright amendment change through Washington! An Omaha newspaper article years ago stated that a southwest spokesperson said that Omaha would definitely be added once 2014 hits. I know times have changed a ton from back then but it would really be a slap in the face if OMA-DAL wasn't on the list.

Plus I believe the O/D is plenty to support this service, especially with the plethora of easy connections to places like AUS, SAT, HOU, MSY and other TX cities that you now have to go through STL or MDW to get to from OMA. Not nearly as direct!!

My guess is OMA is included on this list at 2x daily.
 
LAXintl
Topic Author
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Tue Mar 26, 2013 12:33 am

Regarding AA, I don't think being at Love is much a deal for them even post Wright.

With 2 gates, and AA's slower/more complex operation they certainly wont be mounting many flights even if they tried again.

Frankly if allowed, they might get more value by selling/leasing the gates to SWA instead.

Quoting Joeljack (Reply 35):
Plus I believe the O/D is plenty to support this service

OMA is far down the list - 294 per day.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
SPREE34
Posts: 1566
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2004 6:09 am

RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Tue Mar 26, 2013 12:34 am

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 8):
Then again I suspect US will not allow such a pointless waste of money and resources.

   New Sheriff in town, and he knows how to make money with airplanes.

Quoting KELPkid (Reply 20):
Especially if a merged AA headquarters ends up in PHX.

The HQ will stay in FTW. That was part of the initial announcements last Fall.

Quoting wnflyguy (Reply 33):

I think DAL will become 737-800 heavy in OCT 2014.

   Agree, and believe this is one reason for their recent interest in used 800s.
I don't understand everything I don't know about this.
 
TW870
Posts: 488
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2013 2:01 am

RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Tue Mar 26, 2013 12:53 am

Quoting sdoyon (Reply 10):
Without a doubt, MAF/LBB/AMA won't stay at 6x daily--I see these as 2 daily tops. This will free up for places like DEN, MDW, LAS, LAX, OAK, BOS, and LGA (I'm pretty sure DAL-LGA is within the LGA perimeter, but I could be wrong).

Why would places like LBB and MAF lose service with the change? They already send their traffic to DAL for connections, and it seems like the new plan will give them even more one-stop connecting opportunities. I was looking at taking a job in LBB, and I would never have used WN - even though I like them - because I would have had to do 2 stops to get so many places. Now I would absolutely chose WN over AA out of LBB if they both had one stop service.

Unless the intra-Texas flights were artificially overscheduled to cope with the Wright amendment, it seems like they will stay the same. Its the 1-stop cities outside Texas like OKC or ABQ that I would think would be most impacted.
 
usflyguy
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Tue Mar 26, 2013 1:22 am

Quoting TW870 (Reply 38):
Unless the intra-Texas flights were artificially overscheduled to cope with the Wright amendment, it seems like they will stay the same. Its the 1-stop cities outside Texas like OKC or ABQ that I would think would be most impacted.

N/S service out of DAL will be overflying the current stops.
My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
 
Josh32121
Posts: 237
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Tue Mar 26, 2013 1:39 am

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 24):
Maybe ATL or something... we'll see.

DL currently flies ATL-DAL on CRJ-200's. A friend of mine flew it last week. I'm not sure how well it does for DL, though.
 
sdoyon
Posts: 276
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Tue Mar 26, 2013 1:51 am

Quoting TW870 (Reply 38):
Why would places like LBB and MAF lose service with the change?

As you postulated yourself, these flights may be artificially overscheduled. I am of the opinion that they are. How is it that MAF-HOU has 3x daily flights but DAL has 6x daily? The metro sizes are almost equal (+300K to DAL), but the HOU hub is bigger and better connected to the rest of the WN network.

There is no doubt in my mind WN is overscheduling these cities to better use the gates in DAL until the opportunity arrises for expanded growth. Remember, WN has incentive to use their gates in DAL, if another carrier comes in, they are required to share their space as needed. Better to overschedule and prevent the competition from muscling in on their home turf.

In addition, these places like MAF/AMA/LBB are chock full of $100 WGA fares, where as:
- DFW-BOS: $499 when you exclude NK and B6
- DFW-LGA: $545 when you exclude NK
- DFW-ATL: $391 when you exclude NK

When you remove NK and AA from the equation, there is a real opportunity for WN to have $250-$350 fares in these markets, and in my opinion, transform DAL from a regional hub into a national one.

[Edited 2013-03-25 18:52:34]
 
AA737-823
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Tue Mar 26, 2013 2:49 am

Quoting Josh32121 (Reply 40):
DL currently flies ATL-DAL on CRJ-200's. A friend of mine flew it last week. I'm not sure how well it does for DL, though.

Really? I was almost certain it was NW's old Memphis route...
 
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lightsaber
Crew
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Tue Mar 26, 2013 2:52 am

This is an exciting change for WN and DAL.

Am I the only one excited by WN able to open up 'hubs' from DAL and thus tremendously expanding their customer base.

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
All in all the Metroplex market will become even more competitive by late 2014. Good for consumers.

Agreed, it will be quite a shift though!

Quoting commavia (Reply 17):
and the other 1/3 from displacing shorthaul departures.

I agree with your ratios. While DAL will gain flights and gauge, there will be many short hauls reduced in frequency. I wonder if any will be dropped?  
Quoting wnflyguy (Reply 33):

I think DAL will become 737-800 heavy in OCT 2014.

I agree. Those flights will up-gauge very quickly.

Lightsaber
"They did not know it was impossible, so they did it!" - Mark Twain
 
mcdu
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Tue Mar 26, 2013 3:10 am

Quoting alggag (Reply 9):
Not really - a consequence for removing the perimeter rule was the institution of a 20 gate rule, 16 of which for WN.

That's a monopoly on gates. WN should be forced to give up gates to new entrants like VX, B6 and the legacy carriers should also get a few gates......this is what WN has argued for their own handout of legacy gates at slot/gate limited airports.
 
BHMNONREV
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Tue Mar 26, 2013 3:18 am

Quoting mcdu (Reply 44):
Quoting alggag (Reply 9):
Not really - a consequence for removing the perimeter rule was the institution of a 20 gate rule, 16 of which for WN.

That's a monopoly on gates. WN should be forced to give up gates to new entrants like VX, B6 and the legacy carriers should also get a few gates......this is what WN has argued for their own handout of legacy gates at slot/gate limited airports.

I believe all of this was agreed to with the airlines in return for the 2014 repeal of the WA, so no turning back now. And as someone else mentioned earlier, if a new entrant wants to come in gate space must be made available.

In regards to AA, I can't see them cannibalizing their DFW service save for maybe a few flights to ORD, DCA and LGA. As far as DL and UA, who knows...
 
Bobloblaw
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Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2012 1:15 pm

RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Tue Mar 26, 2013 3:18 am

Quoting RL757PVD (Reply 1):
MDW 7x
LAX,LAS, ATL, PHX and BWI at 5x
SFO, LGA at 4x
SEA, MCO and BNA at 3x

I think that is too many, youre at 49 there. My guess

MDW x5-5
LAX x3-8
PHX x3-11
ATL x3-14
LAS x3-17
BWI x3-20
BNA x2-22
MCO x2-24
DEN x3-27
OAK x1-28
RDU x1-29
TPA x1-30
Long shots
LGA x3-33
DCA x2-35

DAL will not be trying to grab tons of pax from DFW.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 3):
With DAL finally becoming a legitimate connection point we could very likely see fewer flights at current east-west transit airports such as PHX, ABQ, STL and MCI.

I don't think so, 30-40 more DAL flights isn't enough to kill those cities. I Do think youll see fewer flights from DAL to STL ABQ,and MCI. Probably cut in half

Quoting Beardown91737 (Reply 11):
Assuming 15-16 hours a day of operation (6AM to 9 or 10PM), how many departures could WN schedule from 16 gates?

I think DAL is something like 12 departures per gate, one of the highest in the industry. I don't think it will that high. Maybe 10. That would put them at 160 which is roughly they have today plus 30 or so.
 
BestWestern
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Tue Mar 26, 2013 3:21 am

Can DAL not use gates to serve multiple flights by using bussing 'technology' That would allow, for example a 6am and a 6.30am departure from the same gate - one of them being bussed to remote stand.
You are 100 times more likely to catch a cold on a flight than an average person!
 
Bobloblaw
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RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Tue Mar 26, 2013 3:23 am

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 47):
Can DAL not use gates to serve multiple flights by using bussing 'technology' That would allow, for example a 6am and a 6.30am departure from the same gate - one of them being bussed to remote stand.

1. There is no reason for that
2. WN would never do that
3. That would violate the spirit if not the actual agreement concerning the size of DAL and number of gates

Fort Worth and DFW would be in Federal Court in 2 sec if that happened.
 
alggag
Posts: 107
Joined: Tue Apr 20, 2010 6:34 am

RE: SWA Plans "Substantial" Growth At Love Field

Tue Mar 26, 2013 3:31 am

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 46):
I think that is too many, youre at 49 there. My guess

MDW x5-5
LAX x3-8
PHX x3-11
ATL x3-14
LAS x3-17
BWI x3-20
BNA x2-22
MCO x2-24
DEN x3-27
OAK x1-28
RDU x1-29
TPA x1-30
Long shots
LGA x3-33
DCA x2-35

DAL will not be trying to grab tons of pax from DFW.

This is more realistic than some of the, how shall I say, more optimistic predictions. DAL would be slightly larger than today's HOU - that, along with their similar location and similar market size is why I say that DAL post Wright will look more or less like today's HOU. But, I think WN might steal some LGA or EWR flights from HOU over to DAL along with maybe 2x to SFO. Otherwise, that's about it.