Gonzalo
Topic Author
Posts: 1529
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KE And The Current Crisis With North Korea

Tue Apr 02, 2013 2:49 pm

Hello all. I am fully aware about the North Koreans being big mouth screamers who yell too much but don't do anything relevant in practice. However, in the last days I'm seeing more and more reports from different experts about the necessity of taking the rhetoric of North Korea more seriously this time, and there is a real, genuine perception of concerns among the South Korean citizens and other neighbours. Yesterday we have here an interview with some students cancelling their return flights for some time, expecting " the things back to normal", something that looks not so close for now

So, the question is, what do you think : would all this scenario affect in some way the Korean Air performance ?

Cheers,

G.
Gear Up!!: DC-3 / EMB-110 / Fairchild-227 / Ab318-19-20-21 / B732 / B763 / B789
 
SonomaFlyer
Posts: 1900
Joined: Tue Apr 20, 2010 2:47 pm

RE: KE And The Current Crisis With North Korea

Tue Apr 02, 2013 2:52 pm

Its highly unlikely anything will happen other than a commando raid or a few shells lobbed at a ROK position. The PRK has too much to lose.

KE likely has contingency plans filed away in the event hostilities break out. The ROK is so small that all of its operations would be under threat in the event of a general attack. Other than shutting down, there's only so much KE can do to prepare.
 
sierra3tango
Posts: 541
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RE: KE And The Current Crisis With North Korea

Tue Apr 02, 2013 3:19 pm

Shuttle flights from a ?Japanese? airport rather like GF did (MUS/BAH) in Gulf War I
 
PHX787
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RE: KE And The Current Crisis With North Korea

Tue Apr 02, 2013 3:26 pm

Nothing's going to happen, and if it does, I think very little collateral damage will happen to south korea besides where the initial strike would be. That initial strike, in my opinion, would be the only place touched by Korea. If it is near Incheon or Gimbo, then the planes there would most likely be evacuated to the south, and the airport would obviously be disrupted a bit.


Don't take anything N.K. has to say seriously right now. I'm pretty assured that many back-room meetings are being held on all sides of the issue.
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infinit
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RE: KE And The Current Crisis With North Korea

Tue Apr 02, 2013 3:31 pm

Quoting sierra3tango (Reply 2):
Shuttle flights from a ?Japanese? airport rather like GF did (MUS/BAH) in Gulf War I

And that's the weakness of the North Asian countries in contrast to their Southeastern neighbours in the ASEAN bloc. Japan, South Korea and the PRC are still at odds with each other over the island disputes. I can't imagine Japan giving a Korean airline a homebase in NRT, not even FUK. If they do, it probably would be the start of a new era of relations between the two nations!
 
PHX787
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RE: KE And The Current Crisis With North Korea

Tue Apr 02, 2013 3:36 pm

Quoting infinit (Reply 4):
I can't imagine Japan giving a Korean airline a homebase in NRT, not even FUK. If they do, it probably would be the start of a new era of relations between the two nations!

You never know. Japan provided a bunch of support for S. Korea during the Korean War. Sure they're at odds but even political figures here are beginning to see that it's over a bunch of stupid rocks (that have oil and fish......)

Essentially, it comes to this: If N. Korea and S. Korea go to war, Japan already pretty much committed to supporting S. Korea.

Abe hates the N. Korean government already, so it's almost a no-brainer.
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sierra3tango
Posts: 541
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RE: KE And The Current Crisis With North Korea

Tue Apr 02, 2013 3:40 pm

Strange "accomodations" (if thats the word) are made during wars, think of Stalin and Churchill
 
infinit
Posts: 915
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RE: KE And The Current Crisis With North Korea

Tue Apr 02, 2013 3:41 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 5):

I wasn't aware Japan made such a commitment but that's good. I always felt Japan and Korea at least should really have far deeper bilateral ties with a rising and much big China in the picture.
 
AeroWesty
Posts: 19551
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 7:37 am

RE: KE And The Current Crisis With North Korea

Tue Apr 02, 2013 3:50 pm

What does any of the political chatter in the posts above have to do with the question of:

Quoting Gonzalo (Thread starter):
So, the question is, what do you think : would all this scenario affect in some way the Korean Air performance ?

Frankly, I doubt if we'll see any affect on either KE or OZ's financial performance until there are serious military movements. There may be a few who stay away from S. Korea based on fears of war, but that's a negligible sum at the moment.
International Homo of Mystery
 
flyingalex
Posts: 623
Joined: Fri Jul 16, 2010 1:32 pm

RE: KE And The Current Crisis With North Korea

Tue Apr 02, 2013 9:45 pm

Quoting infinit (Reply 4):
And that's the weakness of the North Asian countries in contrast to their Southeastern neighbours in the ASEAN bloc. Japan, South Korea and the PRC are still at odds with each other over the island disputes. I can't imagine Japan giving a Korean airline a homebase in NRT, not even FUK. If they do, it probably would be the start of a new era of relations between the two nations!
Quoting PHX787 (Reply 5):
You never know. Japan provided a bunch of support for S. Korea during the Korean War. Sure they're at odds but even political figures here are beginning to see that it's over a bunch of stupid rocks (that have oil and fish......)

Essentially, it comes to this: If N. Korea and S. Korea go to war, Japan already pretty much committed to supporting S. Korea.

One other thing to keep in mind is that after the Tohoku earthquake, tsunami and subsequent nuclear incident in Japan two years ago, quite a few airlines routed their Japan flights via Korea for a while until the situation became clearer. Crews were nightstopping in ICN, and operating shuttles to/from Japan. LH operated that way, so did BA. There were others, but I don't recall the details.

If worst comes to worst in Korea, this would be an opportunity for Japan to repay the favour.
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PHX787
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RE: KE And The Current Crisis With North Korea

Wed Apr 03, 2013 5:53 am

Quoting flyingalex (Reply 9):
If worst comes to worst in Korea, this would be an opportunity for Japan to repay the favour.

Thank you flyingalex, you're exactly right. As I stated the Japanese and Korean relationship is strong....because there's noting really happening between them, the islands thing seems to be a petty argument to waste time....I have more concern between the Chinese and Japanese relationship and the Senkakus.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 8):
Frankly, I doubt if we'll see any affect on either KE or OZ's financial performance until there are serious military movements. There may be a few who stay away from S. Korea based on fears of war, but that's a negligible sum at the moment.

We answered this earlier in the thread:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 3):
Nothing's going to happen, and if it does, I think very little collateral damage will happen to south korea besides where the initial strike would be. That initial strike, in my opinion, would be the only place touched by Korea. If it is near Incheon or Gimbo, then the planes there would most likely be evacuated to the south, and the airport would obviously be disrupted a bit.
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AeroWesty
Posts: 19551
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 7:37 am

RE: KE And The Current Crisis With North Korea

Wed Apr 03, 2013 8:19 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 10):
We answered this earlier in the thread:

What you posed as an answer was to 'what if war comes', not to 'what will be happening currently in the anticipation of war', which was the actual question.
International Homo of Mystery

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