flaps30
Topic Author
Posts: 187
Joined: Mon May 25, 2009 12:33 am

Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sat Apr 27, 2013 12:38 am

With SLC being my home airport and an important part of the local economy, I was wondering if Delta has any plans to downsize this hub as they have done with CVG and MEM. Now I know each of these cities serves a different purpose in the grand scheme of Delta world, but is SLC safe as an important hub for DL? They do have a loyal following here (even though I usually fly WN) from the business community so are the yields playing a big factor here or could SLC still thrive for DL with average yields?
every day is a good day to fly
 
FlyASAGuy2005
Posts: 3965
Joined: Sun Sep 23, 2007 4:55 am

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sat Apr 27, 2013 12:43 am

Short answer...not a chance. DL likes to be top dog. See ATL, (SLC), MSP, DTW. SLC serves a very important role in the Delta network that cannot be accomplished by way of LAX or even a lesser extent, MSP. O/D is very healthy considering it's the only major airport...anywhere in the area. SLC held its own through the tough times and at one point was the only hub except for ATL that saw significant growth (32% over a 1 or 2 year period IIRC).
What gets measured gets done.
 
LV
Posts: 1546
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2001 6:02 am

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sat Apr 27, 2013 12:46 am

CVG and MEM were more victims of geography than anything. They were too close to DTW and ATL respectively. SLC is kind of geogrpahically unique. You don't have a lot of options unless you want to move the hub to DEN, PHX, LAS or something like that... and those options just aren't feasible.
 
toobz
Posts: 632
Joined: Mon Jan 18, 2010 6:33 am

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sat Apr 27, 2013 1:37 am

Short answer No Way. SLC is DLs turf on the west coast ( as west coast as can be for DL). DL has a huge FF base there and it has been noted that it is "strong" there.
 
WesternA318
Posts: 4474
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 11:55 am

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sat Apr 27, 2013 1:39 am

Like everyone else has been saying, SLC is one of the last fortress hubs, especially out west, and a proftable one at that. DL is growing it instead of downsizing it. I do hope some of the RJ flying will be replaced by the incoming 717's though....*crosses fingers and toes*
Check out my blog at fl310travel.blogspot.com!
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 3270
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sat Apr 27, 2013 1:57 am

I am biased on this answer but.......No chance the city is hubless and extremely unlikely Delta leaves or shrinks alot . If Delta ever left Frontier would fly into town so fast it would be ridiculous.

The new terminals will be built to actually get Delta an improved operation and was designed to meet Deltas top need of more mainline sized gates. The airport will get better for Delta soon and at low costs the airport has actual cash in the bank to invest unlike most of the airports considering these projects so it wont have some huge costs increase being thrown on Delta. Delta is totally in on the new terminals and wants it to happen. It has enough gates but just too many RJ only gates and too few maineline or large RJs. Delta has been consistently profitable in both the bad times and the high oil times in SLC. It has proven successful for years and Delta values the city they wont leave something so consistent and valuable.
 
WesternA318
Posts: 4474
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 11:55 am

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sat Apr 27, 2013 2:06 am

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 5):

I am biased on this answer but.......No chance the city is hubless and extremely unlikely Delta leaves or shrinks alot . If Delta ever left Frontier would fly into town so fast it would be ridiculous.

Hehe, if Frontier even survives to that point. But youre right, SLC and DL have almost the same relationship DL has with ATL. They arent going anywhere.
Check out my blog at fl310travel.blogspot.com!
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 3270
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sat Apr 27, 2013 3:57 am

I would think SLC is likely to see alot of skywest ordered Mitsubishi 90s down the road? The 717s might be perfect on the East Coast and replace alot of the 88s in ATL?
 
Bobloblaw
Posts: 1680
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2012 1:15 pm

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sat Apr 27, 2013 4:03 am

Quoting flaps30 (Thread starter):

I think your airport is safe. SLC is a great place. Enjoy it.
 
bomber996
Posts: 414
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2005 10:21 am

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sat Apr 27, 2013 4:33 am

SLC is to DL in the Mountian West as CLT is to US in the South East... a.k.a. not going away any time soon.

Peace   
Two biggest lies in aviation... "I'm from the FAA and I'm here to help you." & "Traffic in sight."
 
PHXFlyer16
Posts: 48
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2013 4:36 pm

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sat Apr 27, 2013 4:46 am

As others have said, every major needs a West/Mountain West hub. LAX is simply not doable as a major hub.

UA has DEN, US/AA has PHX, SW has multiple (PHX, DEN, LAS), and DL has SLC.
 
Sevensixtyseven
Posts: 255
Joined: Mon May 30, 2011 3:33 am

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sat Apr 27, 2013 6:59 am

Could we theoretically see Delta make a move into PHX should certain other airlines reduce their presence there? From multiple times flying to, from, and through PHX, T-4 is an excellent facility to use for connecting passengers.
Will that ex-HP 752 get delayed...again?
 
LV
Posts: 1546
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2001 6:02 am

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sat Apr 27, 2013 7:22 am

Quoting Sevensixtyseven (Reply 11):
Could we theoretically see Delta make a move into PHX should certain other airlines reduce their presence there? From multiple times flying to, from, and through PHX, T-4 is an excellent facility to use for connecting passengers.

I think SLC is more premium/ business oriented whereas PHX is more leisure oriented. I think yields would be lower at PHX vs. SLC. There is a massive presence of financial services around SLC and you can not discount how much traffic the LDS church generates.
 
Bobloblaw
Posts: 1680
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2012 1:15 pm

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sat Apr 27, 2013 10:35 am

Quoting LV (Reply 12):

LDS is not high yield nor is the ski traffic. On the plus side, SLC has a big high tech sector.

Quoting Sevensixtyseven (Reply 11):

Why would that happen. So you're saying the Delta can make PHX work when AA/US can't. Explain that.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 1964
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sat Apr 27, 2013 11:39 am

Quoting LV (Reply 12):
There is a massive presence of financial services around SLC and you can not discount how much traffic the LDS church generates.

Actually, one can and should. DEN and PHX (serving much larger metro areas) also have far larger domestic O&D passenger volumes. DEN ranks #4; PHX # 11, SLC #32.

http://apps.bts.gov/programs/economi...vel_price_index/html/table_07.html

That's not to say that a few airports can't thrive on connecting traffic (CLT punches way above its weight), but it's geography as much as demographics that makes it work.
 
PHX787
Posts: 7877
Joined: Thu Mar 15, 2012 7:46 pm

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sat Apr 27, 2013 11:50 am

Quoting LV (Reply 2):
CVG and MEM were more victims of geography than anything.
Quoting flyasaguy2005 (Reply 1):
Short answer...not a chance. DL likes to be top dog.
Quoting PHXFlyer16 (Reply 10):
As others have said, every major needs a West/Mountain West hub. LAX is simply not doable as a major hub.

All of this. Some may see DL's buildup at SEA as threatening to SLC's existence but essentially that's not going to do anything to SLC. As others have said, LAX is too far out of the way to be a major hub and SLC is serving quite fine as a mountain west hub.
Follow me on twitter: www.twitter.com/phx787
 
PHXFlyer16
Posts: 48
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2013 4:36 pm

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sat Apr 27, 2013 1:50 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 15):
All of this. Some may see DL's buildup at SEA as threatening to SLC's existence but essentially that's not going to do anything to SLC. As others have said, LAX is too far out of the way to be a major hub and SLC is serving quite fine as a mountain west hub.

I wouldn't see SEA as a threat. Similarly, SFO is not a threat to DEN for UA and LAX is not a threat to PHX for US/AA.
 
EricR
Posts: 1223
Joined: Mon Jul 26, 2010 4:15 pm

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sat Apr 27, 2013 2:20 pm

Quoting LV (Reply 12):

I think SLC is more premium/ business oriented whereas PHX is more leisure oriented. I think yields would be lower at PHX vs. SLC.

I wouldn't necessarily conclude SLC has more premium traffic than PHX. Most of DL's ops out of SLC are on RJs with either no premium class or very small premium class. SLC definitely has an overall higher average airfare than PHX mostly due to the heavy WN competition in PHX.
 
commavia
Posts: 9744
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sat Apr 27, 2013 7:44 pm

Quoting flaps30 (Thread starter):
but is SLC safe as an important hub for DL?

Yes, I believe SLC is very safe as a DL hub. I don't know why DL would ever want to mess up the good thing they've got going there - DL seems to be doing quite well in SLC, and I don't see anything on the horizon that would change that.

And it's easy to see why: it's a great hub in many important ways: SLC benefits from its relatively good location, relatively good climate, relatively low costs, relative lack of other hub competition (only one other network hub in the Rocky Mountain region), and the fact that DL itself has no other hub that can replicate the traffic flows SLC handles.

Quoting PHXFlyer16 (Reply 10):
every major needs a West/Mountain West hub.

No they don't. Economically and demographically, it's the least important region of the continental U.S., and the least critical one to have a hub in. There are only two true air hubs in the Mountain West region - DEN first and foremost, and SLC second. Both are spoken for, and I don't see that changing.

Quoting Sevensixtyseven (Reply 11):
Could we theoretically see Delta make a move into PHX should certain other airlines reduce their presence there?

That seems highly doubtful. SLC has two critically important things going for it that PHX doesn't: (1) SLC is in a better geographic location, and (2) SLC is less competitive.

PHX is too far south to serve as a meaningfully competitive connecting point for just about anything except its immediate surrounding region (CO, AZ, NM) and Hawaii, and it's also among the largest hubs for the nation's largest low-fare airline, meaning it's not a particularly high-yielding market, either. SLC, by contrast, is in a fine geographic position to serve as a connecting point to/from the Rocky Mountain region, and also to serve as a viable connecting point between the entire western U.S. and the east, and it's a market that DL handily dominates with little meaningful competition from Southwest or any other major carrier.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 15):
Some may see DL's buildup at SEA as threatening to SLC's existence but essentially that's not going to do anything to SLC.

Agree - SEA and SLC serve to very different purposes for DL as if anything compliment each other within the broader DL network, not compete with each other.

In my mind, DL's buildup in SEA is about one thing and one thing only: NRT. I suspect that in the last 12-18 months, DL has taken a holistic, strategic look at their Pacific network and come to the conclusion (correctly, I believe) that DL's exposure to, and reliance on, NRT as a hub for accessing the Pacific Rim is a major vulnerability. The long-term viability of NRT as a hub in its current form for DL is tenuous, in my view, and as such DL is trying to build a mainland U.S. hub that, in the long-run, can replace many of the traffic flows NRT now handles. And that's where SEA comes in.

Since SLC was never going to serve as DL's (or any airline's) major gateway to Asia, anyway, I don't see SEA detracting from SLC in this regard.
 
brilondon
Posts: 3018
Joined: Sun Aug 21, 2005 6:56 am

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sat Apr 27, 2013 9:03 pm

Quoting Sevensixtyseven (Reply 11):
Could we theoretically see Delta make a move into PHX should certain other airlines reduce their presence there? From multiple times flying to, from, and through PHX, T-4 is an excellent facility to use for connecting passengers.

Why would DL try to cut out a niche where there are WN and AA/US are going to be the dominant players and they would have to establish themselves. They have hubs in ATL and SLC, which is the subject of this thread and not PHX, why would they need to establish another hub. Most of the airlines now are consolidating and trying to reduce their offerings to help increase fares to make more money. Adding PHX would add nothing to DL.
Rush for ever; Yankees all the way!!
 
BigGSFO
Posts: 2214
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2005 5:27 am

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sat Apr 27, 2013 9:16 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 18):
There are only two true air hubs in the Mountain West region - DEN first and foremost, and SLC second. Both are spoken for, and I don't see that changing.

Agreed. Interesting to think that Denver, given it's market and geography, sustains 3 airline hubs: United, Frontier and Southwest. Any other similar sized market couldn't have the same level of hub operation. DL has this advantage - Salt Lake is right sized for one hub and DL has a good lock on it. It is probably the most developed, and successful, asset from the Western Airlines merger (other than their people) to date.
 
commavia
Posts: 9744
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sat Apr 27, 2013 9:26 pm

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 20):
Interesting to think that Denver, given it's market and geography, sustains 3 airline hubs: United, Frontier and Southwest.

True, although remember that while DEN does sustain hubs for three airlines, it really only has 1 true network hub that functions as a major hub operation specifically for the Rocky Mountain region. Frontier's coverage of the Rocky Mountain region is pretty sparse, and Southwest's is largely nonexistent. United's hub, on the other hand, serves essentially every single population center of consequence in the entire region, and - critically - connects it into a massive nationwide and global network (something else neither Frontier nor Southwest can offer).

But, in general, yes - DEN will always be top dog as hubs (airline, economic, demographic, political, cultural, etc.) go in the Rocky Mountain region. DEN is by far the largest and best-situated market in the region to handle connecting traffic flows going in all directions. Thus why it will always be the "gold medal" of hubs in the region, with SLC the "silver." The DEN-SLC dynamic in that region is similar to the ATL-CLT dynamic in the Atlantic Southeast.

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 20):
DL has this advantage - Salt Lake is right sized for one hub and DL has a good lock on it.

Agreed. Considering how small and geographically isolated the SLC market actually is as a population center (relative to other hubs in the U.S.), the hub DL has built there really is pretty impressive. But - again - that is driven largely by the systemic advantages SLC has as a hub.
 
Sevensixtyseven
Posts: 255
Joined: Mon May 30, 2011 3:33 am

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sat Apr 27, 2013 10:12 pm

Quoting brilondon (Reply 19):

I'm certainly not advocating a "move" of the SLC hub (by any stretch of the imagination), but perhaps an small expansion into PHX to take advantage of a few routes that might make them money.
Will that ex-HP 752 get delayed...again?
 
commavia
Posts: 9744
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sat Apr 27, 2013 10:15 pm

Quoting Sevensixtyseven (Reply 22):
I'm certainly not advocating a "move" of the SLC hub (by any stretch of the imagination), but perhaps an small expansion into PHX to take advantage of a few routes that might make them money.

It's highly doubtful. Airlines are concentrating more and more of their capacity in strong hubs for a reason - that's how to make money. Thus why today, across the networks of the major U.S. network carriers, there is a very small portion of their capacity that does not touch one of their major hubs or focus cities. Besides, again, PHX is such a low-yielding market that I doubt it would be worth it for DL to fight for any of that local traffic, anyway - better to let the airline(s) with hub(s) there cater to it, and focus on their strong SLC hub.
 
User avatar
mariner
Posts: 18186
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2001 7:29 am

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sat Apr 27, 2013 10:39 pm

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 5):
If Delta ever left Frontier would fly into town so fast it would be ridiculous.

That might have been true once - I don't think it is so true now.

I can't imagine Delta will ever pull down SLC, but IF it did I assume Southwest would be in like Flynn.

Frontier might add a couple of routes, but it has other fish to fry these days and why replicate DEN?

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
PHX787
Posts: 7877
Joined: Thu Mar 15, 2012 7:46 pm

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sun Apr 28, 2013 12:48 am

Quoting Sevensixtyseven (Reply 22):
I'm certainly not advocating a "move" of the SLC hub (by any stretch of the imagination), but perhaps an small expansion into PHX to take advantage of a few routes that might make them money.

I do agree here, in some aspects. DL has been known for random upgauges into PHX and are the only US operator into PHX with "scheduled" (albeit seasonal) widebody service. They like PHX, that's something everyone can see. If an opportunity comes for DL to add a little more to PHX I can see it happening, but mostly to hubs and LAX. Maybe SEA but AS has that one covered.
Follow me on twitter: www.twitter.com/phx787
 
BD338
Posts: 576
Joined: Sun Jul 04, 2010 3:00 am

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sun Apr 28, 2013 12:59 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 25):
They like PHX, that's something everyone can see

they don't like it enough to maintain the 6am departure to SLC,   that was a sweet flight for me on a Monday. Pretty much rules DL out for me on that run as the first flight is now too late into SLC for me unless I want to go the night before.(I don't)

I don't see SLC going anywhere but up for DL. The new terminal is basically theres' (WN are putting some cash into the deal but much less then DL). Airport has even hired an ex-DL property guy to manage the project for them. It's strong DL country in SLC, I know quite a few folks in SLC who don't even consider if there are any other options, they always opt for DL regardless.
 
FlyASAGuy2005
Posts: 3965
Joined: Sun Sep 23, 2007 4:55 am

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sun Apr 28, 2013 1:06 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 24):
That might have been true once - I don't think it is so true now.
Quoting mariner (Reply 24):
Frontier might add a couple of routes, but it has other fish to fry these days and why replicate DEN?

I think the whole thing of it would be to VACATE DEN and let UA/WN duke it out and set up shop in SLC. This is not my personal opinion but just trying to convey what I think the others were getting at.
What gets measured gets done.
 
BigGSFO
Posts: 2214
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2005 5:27 am

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sun Apr 28, 2013 1:19 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 25):
Quoting Sevensixtyseven (Reply 22):
I'm certainly not advocating a "move" of the SLC hub (by any stretch of the imagination), but perhaps an small expansion into PHX to take advantage of a few routes that might make them money.

I do agree here, in some aspects. DL has been known for random upgauges into PHX and are the only US operator into PHX with "scheduled" (albeit seasonal) widebody service. They like PHX, that's something everyone can see. If an opportunity comes for DL to add a little more to PHX I can see it happening, but mostly to hubs and LAX. Maybe SEA but AS has that one covered.

Don't hold your breath for anything other than Seattle, if that.
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 3270
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sun Apr 28, 2013 1:57 am

Quoting flyasaguy2005 (Reply 27):
I think the whole thing of it would be to VACATE DEN and let UA/WN duke it out and set up shop in SLC. This is not my personal opinion but just trying to convey what I think the others were getting at.

Exactly. They would get much higher fares being top dog in SLC then duking it out with WN and UA. Delta wont leave or give them the opportunity but that is exactly why frontier would leave if SLC opened up. Delta wont leave but having SLC all to yourself and price power is much more powerful and profitable than sharing DEN and not having pricing power.
 
User avatar
mariner
Posts: 18186
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2001 7:29 am

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sun Apr 28, 2013 2:14 am

Quoting flyasaguy2005 (Reply 27):
I think the whole thing of it would be to VACATE DEN and let UA/WN duke it out and set up shop in SLC.

I can't imagine that ever happening and I see no upside to it.

Since it is all based on Delta leaving SLC, I can't imagine Southwest - or other airlines - allowing that void to remain and setting up shop at SLC would remove what has sustained Frontier at DEN.

mariner.
aeternum nauta
 
questions
Posts: 1144
Joined: Thu Sep 15, 2011 4:51 am

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sun Apr 28, 2013 4:18 am

How is SLC used? Its seems like a lot of west coast to east flows through MSP, DTW, and ATL.
 
PHXFlyer16
Posts: 48
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2013 4:36 pm

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sun Apr 28, 2013 3:53 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 18):
No they don't. Economically and demographically, it's the least important region of the continental U.S., and the least critical one to have a hub in. There are only two true air hubs in the Mountain West region - DEN first and foremost, and SLC second. Both are spoken for, and I don't see that changing.

*sigh* here we go again...

Not sure if you fly on the west coast or not, but those of us who live here need a way to get from pout A to point B within the west. That requires a hub. Saying that the west coast is not important to warrant a hub is ridiculous.

You have to look at the airlines total network. AA was not competitive on its own because the entirety of its network relative to DL and UA was lacking. They lacked connecting hubs in the west and in the northeast. Many consumer, like myself, are loyal to our FF programs. We appreciate an occasional free flight, and will not fly an airline that can only get us where we are trying to go if it's to the east coast. We need to be able to move throught the west efficiently as well.

It's not about areas that are of less importance or less profitable. That may be true, but there is great significance in a network that covers the country. You may not make a lot of money flying someone from ABQ to SNA, but you keep their loyalty and earn more when you need to get them to JFK or MIA.
 
Bobloblaw
Posts: 1680
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2012 1:15 pm

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sun Apr 28, 2013 3:59 pm

Quoting questions (Reply 31):
How is SLC used? Its seems like a lot of west coast to east flows through MSP, DTW, and ATL.

Intrawest flying plus smaller cities that cant support service to MSP, the closest hub.
 
Bobloblaw
Posts: 1680
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2012 1:15 pm

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sun Apr 28, 2013 4:02 pm

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 20):
Agreed. Interesting to think that Denver, given it's market and geography, sustains 3 airline hubs: United, Frontier and Southwest.

Its not clear that it can. Are WN and UA making money there? Will F9 survive? It is likely that WN and UA are both losing money and subsidizing their losses with profits from other hubs.
 
flaps30
Topic Author
Posts: 187
Joined: Mon May 25, 2009 12:33 am

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sun Apr 28, 2013 4:24 pm

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 34):
It is likely that WN and UA are both losing money and subsidizing their losses with profits from other hubs.

Not sure how true that is when speaking of WN at Denver. If they were losing money at Denver than how could one explain how Denver has risen all the way to # 5 in terms of daily departures from the top 10 in WN's network in just a few short years.
every day is a good day to fly
 
commavia
Posts: 9744
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sun Apr 28, 2013 5:14 pm

Quoting PHXFlyer16 (Reply 32):
*sigh* here we go again...

"Sigh" indeed.   

Quoting PHXFlyer16 (Reply 32):
but those of us who live here need a way to get from pout A to point B within the west.

Fine. But with respect specifically to intra-west trafic flows, PHX is only good for connecting a very specific set of "Point As" to a very specific set of "Point Bs" - namely, connecting California with the southwest and Colorado. Beyond that, PHX is totally out of the way, non-competitive, and capable of catering to only yield-discounted connections. As has been said numerous times in numerous threads: why would somebody, for example, fly PDX-PHX-SAN when they could just fly nonstop or connect through more direct connecting points like SFO, LAX, SJC, even LAS? SLC, on the other hand, while also unable to viable serve as a connecting point for connections up and down the west coast, can at least cater to connections between the entirety of the west coast and the entirety of the mountain west. PHX, because of its inferior location (too far west and south) can't do that.

Quoting PHXFlyer16 (Reply 32):
Saying that the west coast is not important to warrant a hub is ridiculous.

Go back and read what I actually wrote. Nobody ever said the West Coast was not important.

My comments were referring specifically to the Mountain West, which is, indeed, the least important region of the country in which to have a hub - it's the least populated and least dense region of the continental U.S. The West Coast is an entirely different story - although neither SLC or PHX is a viable hub for connections up and down the West Coast.

However, while on the subject, there can only ever really be one true network airline megahub on the West Coast, and that's SFO, and that's already spoken for.

Quoting PHXFlyer16 (Reply 32):
AA was not competitive on its own because the entirety of its network relative to DL and UA was lacking. They lacked connecting hubs in the west and in the northeast.

Northeast, yes. West - inevitable and unavoidable no matter what. If you combine the West Coast and the Mountain West into just the "West," there are only three places that can really be true network airline megahubs today at network airline cost levels - DEN, SLC and SFO. All are spoken for already. With regards specifically for SLC, DL has the best possible hub it can have as far west as it can get - there's no further west DL can go and find a market capable of supporting a full-fledged network airline hub for connections up and down the West Coast. The best DL (and to some extent AA) can hope for are barbells north (SEA) and south (LAX), partly relying on partners (AS).

With or without a merger, AA would be unable to have a true hub in the Mountain West, and AA (along with DL) would be unable to have a true hub on the West Coast. PHX, unfortunately, is a viable hub for neither - it cannot cater to intra-West Coast connections, nor for Mountain West connections. It's a so-so hub for connections between the two, but even there, if one looks at the markets US currently serves out of PHX that are between PHX and DFW, AA already flies to virtually all of them nonstop from LAX.

Quoting PHXFlyer16 (Reply 32):
We need to be able to move throught the west efficiently as well.

Nobody ever disputed that.

Quoting PHXFlyer16 (Reply 32):
It's not about areas that are of less importance or less profitable. That may be true, but there is great significance in a network that covers the country. You may not make a lot of money flying someone from ABQ to SNA, but you keep their loyalty and earn more when you need to get them to JFK or MIA.

Sounds good on paper, and it is true that airlines may be willing to lose money in certain places in order to retain profitable business in others. But at some point the losses will start to outweigh the profits elsewhere.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 34):
Its not clear that it can. Are WN and UA making money there? Will F9 survive? It is likely that WN and UA are both losing money and subsidizing their losses with profits from other hubs.

  

I do not believe the current market conditions in DEN are sustainable. I still believe that at some point, something is going to have to give.
 
flyguy89
Posts: 1931
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sun Apr 28, 2013 5:18 pm

Quoting PHXFlyer16 (Reply 32):
Saying that the west coast is not important to warrant a hub is ridiculous.

He's not talking about the West Coast, he's talking about the Mountain West, reread his post and what he was responding to.

Quoting PHXFlyer16 (Reply 32):
AA was not competitive on its own because the entirety of its network relative to DL and UA was lacking.

No, AA was not competitive because its competitors DL and UA had gone through bankruptcy and greatly reduced their costs while AA hadn't.

Quoting PHXFlyer16 (Reply 32):
They lacked connecting hubs in the west and in the northeast

If all of that were logical and true, how did CO and US ever make any money? CO didn't have a West Coast hub or a true Midwest hub. US has no hub between CLT and PHX, a pretty huge gap, yet they're very profitable.
 
lhcvg
Posts: 1255
Joined: Mon May 25, 2009 2:53 pm

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sun Apr 28, 2013 5:38 pm

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 37):
If all of that were logical and true, how did CO and US ever make any money? CO didn't have a West Coast hub or a true Midwest hub. US has no hub between CLT and PHX, a pretty huge gap, yet they're very profitable.

This good to point out -- US may have a rather large number of backtracking itineraries, but they do manage to make it work and make money doing it. OTOH, maybe that's a great way for US fliers to rack up additional BIS miles with all that backtracking!

Quoting commavia (Reply 36):


I do not believe the current market conditions in DEN are sustainable. I still believe that at some point, something is going to have to give.

And it will be interesting to see who "wins", whenever it reaches that point. I can see arguments for any of the three at DEN winning out, not to mention whether it will keep two hub tenants (so just one player throws in the towel) or if it becomes a one-horse town hubwise.
 
WesternA318
Posts: 4474
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 11:55 am

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sun Apr 28, 2013 5:39 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 36):
My comments were referring specifically to the Mountain West, which is, indeed, the least important region of the country in which to have a hub - it's the least populated and least dense region of the continental U.S. The West Coast is an entirely different story - although neither SLC or PHX is a viable hub for connections up and down the West Coast.

Looking through my travel agency bookings, I have quite a lot of pax going through SLC from the Pacific NW to SOCal and throughout the west. They dont sem to have a problem connecting through SLC, or even PHX.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 37):
If all of that were logical and true, how did CO and US ever make any money? CO didn't have a West Coast hub or a true Midwest hub. US has no hub between CLT and PHX, a pretty huge gap, yet they're very profitable.

Amen!
Check out my blog at fl310travel.blogspot.com!
 
commavia
Posts: 9744
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sun Apr 28, 2013 5:46 pm

Quoting WesternA318 (Reply 39):
Looking through my travel agency bookings, I have quite a lot of pax going through SLC from the Pacific NW to SOCal and throughout the west. They dont sem to have a problem connecting through SLC, or even PHX.

Again - there's no question that such connections certainly exist. People fly BOS-MIA-MSY, too.

The point I was making is that such connections are in almost all cases likely sold at a substantial yield discount since, again, virtually nobody is going to pay the same fare to fly hours and hundreds of miles out of the way. And as such, you can't build a hub upon these connections. So sure, DL may sell some incremental connections between the Pacific Northwest and Southern California over SLC, but that is only a marginal amount of traffic layered on top of the primary function of the SLC hub - connections to/from the Mountain West, and heading east to the Midwest and East Coast.

The same is undoubtedly true of PHX - there are surely people who fly through PHX to connect up and down the West Coast, but because PHX is out of the way and there are so many nonstop options, this traffic is almost certainly at a considerable yield discount, and only incremental to the primary function of the PHX hub (connection people between California and points east).
 
User avatar
mayor
Posts: 6188
Joined: Sun Mar 09, 2008 3:58 pm

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sun Apr 28, 2013 6:01 pm

Quoting WesternA318 (Reply 4):
I do hope some of the RJ flying will be replaced by the incoming 717's though....*crosses fingers and toes*

How does the 717 do in the "hot and high" scenarios, like SLC in the summer?

Quoting LV (Reply 2):
You don't have a lot of options unless you want to move the hub to DEN, PHX, LAS or something like that... and those options just aren't feasible.

When I worked at SLC, there was a rumor floating around for years, after the DL/WA merger, that DL was exploring moving the SLC hub to LAS. Don't know if this was something actually thought of or just something started in a lunchroom, somewhere.
"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
 
WesternA318
Posts: 4474
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 11:55 am

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sun Apr 28, 2013 6:20 pm

Quoting mayor (Reply 41):
How does the 717 do in the "hot and high" scenarios, like SLC in the summer?

You know, Im not sure. Back in my TWA days, we didnt send them anywhere west of COS and DEN, neither of which actually saw the 717's before AA bought our assets. I would assume with the BMW engines and relatively light body it would have no isues, like the MD-90's once all the bugs were fixed. DL I think might be sending a few 717's west to get rid of some CRJ flying, but I expect them mainly to be out of ATL, DTW, and LGA.

Quoting mayor (Reply 41):
When I worked at SLC, there was a rumor floating around for years, after the DL/WA merger, that DL was exploring moving the SLC hub to LAS. Don't know if this was something actually thought of or just something started in a lunchroom, somewhere.

I've heard that, and DEN, and PHX...and so on...lol...then again I hear TransPac service rumours out of SLC too, like resumption of NRT flights, SLC-SIN and SLC-HKG...LOL...as much as I would love to see them...
Check out my blog at fl310travel.blogspot.com!
 
deltal1011man
Posts: 4662
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:17 am

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sun Apr 28, 2013 6:43 pm

Quoting flaps30 (Thread starter):

Not going anywhere. IIRC this summer it will see the most mainline it has a long time. 320/319 to *most* major cities. (ie IAH is getting a airbus this summer, as is DEN/AUS/SAT.....these have been big RJs for a long long time.

Quoting Sevensixtyseven (Reply 11):

no. Delta wouldn't touch PHX for the same reasons AA would leave(which IMO they won't)

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 15):
Some may see DL's buildup at SEA as threatening to SLC's existence

Not anyone who can read a map.

Quoting mariner (Reply 24):
Frontier might add a couple of routes, but it has other fish to fry these days and why replicate DEN?

his point is someone would leave Denver, I agree with that.

Quoting questions (Reply 31):

SFO-SLC-DFW or SFO-MSP-DFW.....which would you do?

Quoting mayor (Reply 41):

How does the 717 do in the "hot and high" scenarios, like SLC in the summer?

I don't believe great but not terrible(ie anything with a JT8D)

Quoting WesternA318 (Reply 42):
DL I think might be sending a few 717's west to get rid of some CRJ flying, but I expect them mainly to be out of ATL, DTW, and LGA.

You will likely see more big RJs and more 319/320 take over flying in SLC. Delta has made it fairly clear the 717 wont be going to the western hubs. Not likely MSP will even get a base. (ATL/DTW maybe NYC)
New airliners.net web site sucks.
 
PHXFlyer16
Posts: 48
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2013 4:36 pm

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sun Apr 28, 2013 6:52 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 36):
Fine. But with respect specifically to intra-west trafic flows, PHX is only good for connecting a very specific set of "Point As" to a very specific set of "Point Bs" - namely, connecting California with the southwest and Colorado. Beyond that, PHX is totally out of the way, non-competitive, and capable of catering to only yield-discounted connections. As has been said numerous times in numerous threads: why would somebody, for example, fly PDX-PHX-SAN when they could just fly nonstop or connect through more direct connecting points like SFO, LAX, SJC, even LAS? SLC, on the other hand, while also unable to viable serve as a connecting point for connections up and down the west coast, can at least cater to connections between the entirety of the west coast and the entirety of the mountain west. PHX, because of its inferior location (too far west and south) can't do that.

Funny how you brought PHX into this, and I didn't even mention it in my post. My post was an argument that AA needs a hub west of DFW. WIthout a hub west of DFW, nobody would consider AA for flying within the western US. There is virtually no loyalty to AA on the West coast because of this. True, it may be OK if you are heading east to fly direct, or though DFW or ORD, but most people are loyal to a carrier that able to get them nearly everywhere they need to go without having too much inconvenience. If you live in the West and travel often within the west, the present AA is not your airline. Therefore, it will likely not be your airline when you do head east.

Quoting commavia (Reply 36):
My comments were referring specifically to the Mountain West, which is, indeed, the least important region of the country in which to have a hub - it's the least populated and least dense region of the continental U.S. The West Coast is an entirely different story - although neither SLC or PHX is a viable hub for connections up and down the West Coast.

Doesn't matter. West or Mountain West, as a major 3 airline, you need a hub in the west, weather that's in the West or Mountain West.

Quoting commavia (Reply 36):
With or without a merger, AA would be unable to have a true hub in the Mountain West, and AA (along with DL) would be unable to have a true hub on the West Coast. PHX, unfortunately, is a viable hub for neither - it cannot cater to intra-West Coast connections, nor for Mountain West connections. It's a so-so hub for connections between the two, but even there, if one looks at the markets US currently serves out of PHX that are between PHX and DFW, AA already flies to virtually all of them nonstop from LAX.

Unless you live in California, there is no chance of connecting through LAX. The AA LAX hub is mostly O&D. Nobody wants to connect through that nightmare. I would consider DEN, SLC and even maybe SFO as ways to get where I need to go through the west. I would not go through LAX, and most people would agree with me.

Is PHX ideal location-wise and yield-wise, no. Is there any alternative for AA/US? No. Other than folding the market, which they cannot afford to do. If you're going to be a top three US airline, you've got to have to have a presence on the west coast. Relying on AS is a joke, and is partly why AA has struggled.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 37):
No, AA was not competitive because its competitors DL and UA had gone through bankruptcy and greatly reduced their costs while AA hadn't.

Are their costs high? Sure. But they are also high because they thought they were a big dog and wanted to be right up there with UA and DL. They were trying to play with the big boys without being able to do so network-wise. They were esentially performing the role of a legacy and had high costs as such, but had huge gaps in the NE and West.

They had no presence in the west and northeast, so relied on AS and B6. Sorry, but there's a reason the other big legacies do their own flying in these areas.

Quoting LHCVG (Reply 38):
This good to point out -- US may have a rather large number of backtracking itineraries, but they do manage to make it work and make money doing it. OTOH, maybe that's a great way for US fliers to rack up additional BIS miles with all that backtracking!

Ding, ding! Someone who get's it! Backtracking is not ideal, but would I rather backtrack to DFW or to PHX? Is the lesser of the evils. And for a good fare, it works just fine. Combine that with one of the largest and fastest growing metros in the US and it works.

Again, not ideal, doesn't print money, but it serves a valuable purpose in a network. As a legacy you cannot have the gap that AA has without US out west.
 
WesternA318
Posts: 4474
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 11:55 am

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sun Apr 28, 2013 7:05 pm

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 43):
You will likely see more big RJs and more 319/320 take over flying in SLC. Delta has made it fairly clear the 717 wont be going to the western hubs. Not likely MSP will even get a base. (ATL/DTW maybe NYC)

Thats what I was thinking...and what I said. We might get one in SLC as an equipment swap, but that would be highly unlikely...thats also why DL took the MD-90's out of SLC. MSP was just better suited for them, and the 319/320's are doing good for SLC.
Check out my blog at fl310travel.blogspot.com!
 
commavia
Posts: 9744
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sun Apr 28, 2013 7:24 pm

Quoting PHXFlyer16 (Reply 44):
My post was an argument that AA needs a hub west of DFW.

And my post was an argument that no viable hub exists west of DFW for AA, or west of SLC for DL.

Quoting PHXFlyer16 (Reply 44):
WIthout a hub west of DFW, nobody would consider AA for flying within the western US.

So essentially no net change from now, where AA relies on partners for intra-west traffic. No problem.

Quoting PHXFlyer16 (Reply 44):
There is virtually no loyalty to AA on the West coast because of this.

   Right ...

Quoting PHXFlyer16 (Reply 44):
If you live in the West and travel often within the west, the present AA is not your airline.

Actually there are lots of people who travel up and down the West Coast who use AS for such regional itineraries and AA for longer-haul. But that's irrelevant. In general, yes, AA has neither the hubs nor the cost structure - and you ned both, not just one - to be a competitor in the intra-West market. DL (SLC) and UA (SFO/DEN) both have viable hubs in the region. AA doesn't, and won't, with or without a merger.

Quoting PHXFlyer16 (Reply 44):
Therefore, it will likely not be your airline when you do head east.

... except that, again, there are many people who defy this logic.

Quoting PHXFlyer16 (Reply 44):
West or Mountain West, as a major 3 airline, you need a hub in the west, weather that's in the West or Mountain West.

If one was available, fine. But a viable hub isn't available. Again - there are three, and all three are already spoken for. As such, AA will continue to focus on building up their local presence in L.A., strengthening its network in and out of, if not between, markets in the region, and enhancing partnerships with domestic (AS) and international (OW, etc.) carriers. I'm sure they'll be just fine.

Quoting PHXFlyer16 (Reply 44):
Unless you live in California, there is no chance of connecting through LAX.

Same with PHX. Again - PHX is in a horrible location for connections from just about anywhere except AZ, CA, or HI. Beyond that, PHX is way out of the way for just about everything. And therein, again, lies the key distinction versus SLC - SLC is in a better location to handle connections to/from CA, but also the entire rest of the West Coast and Mountain West. Critical difference.

Quoting PHXFlyer16 (Reply 44):
Is there any alternative for AA/US? No.

Sure there is. DFW. PHX is only in a good location for connections to/from AZ, CA and HI - DFW can handle just about all of those same connections. What little intra-west connectivity PHX now handles can easily be shifted, to at least a certain extent, elsewhere, and the PHX operation "right-sized" to cater to some connections but more O&D.

Quoting PHXFlyer16 (Reply 44):
Other than folding the market, which they cannot afford to do.

Nonsense. The difference between the actual necessity of the PHX operation and the perception among PHX fans of the necessity of the PHX operation is enormous.

Quoting PHXFlyer16 (Reply 44):
If you're going to be a top three US airline, you've got to have to have a presence on the west coast.

... which AA has now, and will continue to have, regardless of any merger.

But AA need not have an actual hub in the region. It would be nice to have one, but unfortunately no viable ones are available.

Quoting PHXFlyer16 (Reply 44):
Relying on AS is a joke, and is partly why AA has struggled.

  

Hardly.

Quoting PHXFlyer16 (Reply 44):
Are their costs high? Sure. But they are also high because they thought they were a big dog and wanted to be right up there with UA and DL. They were trying to play with the big boys without being able to do so network-wise. They were esentially performing the role of a legacy and had high costs as such, but had huge gaps in the NE and West.

There is so much factually and historically inaccurate about this that I literally do not know where to begin.

Quoting PHXFlyer16 (Reply 44):
And for a good fare, it works just fine.

And therein, yet again, lies the key problem. That critical caveat - "for a good fare" - makes all the difference.

DL doesn't need to rely on "good fares" to make their SLC operation work, nor does UA with SFO. Those hubs work because of where they are located, and because they are directly in the path of lots and lots of convenient connections. DL's primary use for SLC is to get people in and out of the Mountain West, and between the West Coast and points east - in both cases SLC is not out of the way, and therefore doesn't require "a good fare" to induce people to inconvenience themselves. PHX, on the other hand, has very little of this. The only connections for which PHX actually is in a good location, and thus for which "a good fare" is not generally required to get people to tolerate schedule inconvenience, are those in and out of CA, AZ and HI.

And, as has been discussed before, in the context of the combined "new AA" network, there are virtually none of these CA/AZ/HI-originating/-bound connections that couldn't be handled via another hub. Therein lies the other problem for PHX compared to DL's hub in SLC and UA's hubs in DEN and SFO - those hubs serve unique roles within their airlines' networks that no other hub can replicate. DL could never use MSP to serve the Mountain West in the same way that it does via SLC. UA could never serve the West Coast from IAH the way it does via SFO. That's just geographic reality. PHX has no such unique geographic position - virtually every single traffic flow PHX handles can be easily replicated by other AA hubs - and in many if not most case, actually better than those traffic flows can be handled via PHX.

Quoting PHXFlyer16 (Reply 44):
Combine that with one of the largest and fastest growing metros in the US and it works.

You missed one other ingredient for this "combination" - the bankruptcy-era costs of US today.

It is my opinion that PHX - almost certainly the lowest-yielding of US' hubs - is only profitable today at its current levels of capacity because of the low costs (labor, etc.) of US. Parker has essentially implied as much in the past - that US' network was only profitable at lower labor costs, and thus why US employees have been stuck at bankruptcy-level compensation for years. The problem with that calculus is that those bankruptcy-era costs will be coming to an end in the next 6-12 months. At that time, AA is going to have to raise revenue commensurate with raising costs. And in every other combined AA-US hub market, AA should be able to do that relatively easily through capacity discipline and network optimization - except PHX. It will be very difficult to raise revenue sufficiently in PHX, with its intense low-fare competition and low yields. And thus why I - and many others - expect PHX to suffer material capacity reduction. Catering to low-yielding local traffic and "good fare" out-of-the-way connections may work at US cost levels of today, but not AA's cost levels of tomorrow.

Herein, yet again, lies another important difference versus the other hubs you're comparing PHX to. DL's SLC operation is already optimized to operate at the company's current cost levels. Capacity and network optimization have already occurred. SLC doesn't have to worry about having to justify its existence with operating costs about to jump.

[Edited 2013-04-28 12:27:05]
 
User avatar
mariner
Posts: 18186
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2001 7:29 am

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sun Apr 28, 2013 7:28 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 36):
I do not believe the current market conditions in DEN are sustainable. I still believe that at some point, something is going to have to give.

People have been saying that for seven years, but as an abstract concept, without regard to what is happening on the ground - where something has given.

The number of routes where all three airlines compete has been reduced quite dramatically - and may yet reduce more. Conversely, on some of the remaining tripartite routes, a fourth airline has turned up, not always the same airline.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 43):
his point is someone would leave Denver, I agree with that.

I dunno why Frontier at DEN is even involved in this, what it has to do with the topic. The chances of Frontier leaving DEN and slim to none and Slim left the building a long time ago.

More on topic, if (fantasy land) Delta ever left SLC, no one airline would have that market on its own.

mariner

[Edited 2013-04-28 12:39:27]
aeternum nauta
 
deltal1011man
Posts: 4662
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:17 am

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sun Apr 28, 2013 7:30 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 46):
So essentially no net change from now, where AA relies on partners for intra-west traffic. No problem.

LCC is doing something to make money, IMO....PHX is a part of this. (and proof of this is the fact that is has one of the highest mainline %s in the country.)


Oh and you're looking at things, IMO, as AA does now. You, nor I, know what Parker will do. IMO PHX stay right about where it is now. Maybe a little smaller aircraft as things get balanced.
New airliners.net web site sucks.
 
commavia
Posts: 9744
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: Any Chance SLC Becomes The Next CVG Or MEM?

Sun Apr 28, 2013 7:41 pm

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 48):
LCC is doing something to make money, IMO....PHX is a part of this.
PHX is part of it - no question. But again, in my view, it's part of it for two reasons: (1) US has the lowest costs of the legacy carriers, and (2) US has no alternative. Post-merger, both of those justifications go away.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 48):
Oh and you're looking at things, IMO, as AA does now.

Probably. But I think the numbers - and the geography - honestly speak for themselves.

Look at a map - there are virtually no connections PHX now handles that DFW, LAX or ORD cannot handle as well or better. Plus, I continue to believe that PHX is almost certainly the lowest-yielding of US' hubs. So continuing to operate a hub in PHX post-merger of the same scale and scope as US has there now would essentially mean concluding that it was more efficient to operate a hub at network airline costs in a market dominated by a lower-cost carrier, and with virtually no unique network role. Perhaps this is AA thinking, but I struggle to see how that makes sense.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 48):
You, nor I, know what Parker will do. IMO PHX stay right about where it is now. Maybe a little smaller aircraft as things get balanced.

The future is unknown - no question about it.

But again, I simply do not understand how, with substantially higher costs than US has now, Parker will be able to justify to shareholders continuing to put so much capacity into a market as low-yielding as PHX - particularly when those traffic flows are superfluous to flows over other hubs. I'm not saying the PHX operation will simply be reduced to the hubs and nothing else, but I just cannot square the economic and geographic factors PHX will have working against it with the hub US now operates there.

It would be different if PHX were like SLC is for DL, and served some unique role that no other AA hub could fill, and that could give AA access to some higher-yielding connecting flows to offset the lower-yielding local and connecting traffic PHX now handles. But I don't see any such role.

[Edited 2013-04-28 12:42:39]

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: b377, B757Forever, Baidu [Spider], BRADWHO, col, cpd, hunterboy, jagraham, knope2001, Mexicana757, PanzerPowner, PJ01, Prost, Shrimpo7, tilerchin, xcltflyboy, zkncj and 245 guests