tortugamon
Topic Author
Posts: 6674
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Wed May 01, 2013 11:16 pm

Jon Ostrower Tweet: WSJ BREAKING: Boeing Board Of Directors Grants Authority To Offer 777X – Source

[Edited 2013-05-01 16:17:00]


tortugamon


[Edited 2013-05-01 16:17:38]
 
jfk777
Posts: 5840
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Wed May 01, 2013 11:34 pm

Lets hope so what "took them so long" ? BA ended ordering A350-1000 because it took them too long.
 
User avatar
rotating14
Posts: 1120
Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2012 11:54 pm

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Wed May 01, 2013 11:48 pm

I cant find anything other than this link where he says its gonna happen. Suggesting this claim is true, we should see EK and the likes of ordering it sooner than later.

https://twitter.com/jonostrower
 
tortugamon
Topic Author
Posts: 6674
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 12:10 am

Follow up:

From https://twitter.com/jonostrower :
[No comment on BoD, but BA says: "We have begun to discuss additional technical, pricing and schedule details with customers regarding" 777X.]

followed by:

[Boeing says “The timing of a decision to launch [777X] will depend on market response during this next phase of our discussions."]

This does not sound like anything we do not already know other than Boeing seems to like this "soft authority to offer" similar to the 787-10.

If everyone is in agreement, lets have moderators take this thread down.

See this thread if anyone feels it has not already been talked about (trick question because it has):

787-10 Launch Soon; 777X "possible" This Year (by kaitak Apr 24 2013 in Civil Aviation)

tortugamon
 
tortugamon
Topic Author
Posts: 6674
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 12:38 am

Scott Hamilton (Leeham News) and Dominic Gates (Seattle Times) are calling this official authority to offer:

-The Boeing board has given the green light for the Commercial Airplanes unit to offer its proposed new 777X widebody jet for sale.
-It means that Boeing’s sales people can go ahead and negotiate tentative deals.
-A formal launch of the program, which means a Boeing committment [Not my typo!] to production, will follow if deals with airlines are pinned down to the Boeing’s board’s satisfaction.
-In the past, Boeing has launched only a few months after management received authority to offer.

http://seattletimes.com/html/busines...logy/2020902282_boeing777xxml.html


tortugamon
 
SonomaFlyer
Posts: 1868
Joined: Tue Apr 20, 2010 2:47 pm

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 12:51 am

Le Bourget is in roughly six weeks. There are lots of rooms there to have all the airlines that wish to sit down with Boeing and look at pretty mock ups of the 77X. I doubt there will be any firm orders since there's been no launch but I'm sure Boeing could put some info out there about MoUs or something to help build p.r. momentum.
 
RickNRoll
Posts: 1213
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2012 9:30 am

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 12:53 am

Do we know what they will specifically be offering other than a name?
 
SonomaFlyer
Posts: 1868
Joined: Tue Apr 20, 2010 2:47 pm

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 12:56 am

Quoting RickNRoll (Reply 6):
Do we know what they will specifically be offering other than a name?

I suspect that is the subject of the current discussions with the airlines. Boeing looks at the MoUs at the end of the summer (for example) to see if there's enough interest to launch the 77X-8 and/or 8LR alongside the -9.
 
wingman
Posts: 2795
Joined: Thu May 27, 1999 4:25 am

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 1:13 am

WIth any luck they have Emirates wanting to pile drive the industry into the floor mat with the largest airplane order in history in Paris. Would be a nice counterpoint to the 787 saga. Announce the launch in Paris and then have Timbo walk on stage with a check for $25B.
 
tortugamon
Topic Author
Posts: 6674
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 1:36 am

Jon has now added this:

"As far as the cabin goes, Mr. Bair says that Boeing is trying to figure out “what’s the next bold step beyond” the 787, which he notes will be 15-20 years old from its original concept by the time the 777X delivers to airlines. Those familiar with the company's thinking say that taller windows and 787-style dimmers are on the table."
https://www.facebook.com/jonostrower/posts/10101953146246114

What do you think these changes to the cabin could be? Other than the internal stretching and adding 787 windows what else would you guys like to see?

I would like to see an option for carriers regarding underutilized cargo holds that actually gets chosen this time. Some regional flights are not going to fill the ~46 LD3 positions and an option that puts the lavatories or galleys (or a downstairs disco and a rat pack pool haul with a hot tub) in the cargo hold would definitely be a change of pace. Tell me the new plane I fly in 10 years doesn't look exactly the same as what we have all been flying for the last 10.

Quoting SonomaFlyer (Reply 5):
Le Bourget is in roughly six weeks.

Yes it is. We could be getting the formal -10 launch at the airshow and they could informally pitch the 777X alongside as the -10 is as relevant to the 787 as it is to the 777. If all goes well maybe the 777X is launched in EK's backyard at the Dubai airshow in November.


tortugamon
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23081
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 2:04 am

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 1):
Lets hope so what "took them so long" ? BA ended ordering A350-1000 because it took them too long.

If Boeing really is now starting to seriously negotiate orders, I am 110% sure IAG ordered the A350-1000 either because they don't want the 777X or they believe they do, but also want the A350(-1000).
 
sunrisevalley
Posts: 4985
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2004 3:26 am

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 2:24 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 10):
If Boeing really is now starting to seriously negotiate orders, I am 110% sure IAG ordered the A350-1000 either because they don't want the 777X or they believe they do, but also want the A350(-1000).

The BA part of IAG don't need more than ~ 15-hours of endurance. They are likely to fit the A35J out to a 299 seat count as in their 4-class 77W. The caveat may be the need for a 4-class of about 350 seats. This is where the 777-9X could fit. But I don't see the need for the range that it offers.
 
tortugamon
Topic Author
Posts: 6674
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 2:44 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 10):
If Boeing really is now starting to seriously negotiate orders

I don't know Stitch. Maybe this is your point but something tells me Boeing offered enough premature details on pricing to IAG to give them a good idea on what was a good deal from Airbus on the A351. If anything I think it gave them an idea of how many/few 351s to order but I think timing was an issue and Airbus was the only one that seemed able to deliver in a time horizon they needed.

I think this just gives them the ability to not have to be launch customer to get the planes they need when they need them and it will give them another couple years to make a decision one way or the other on the 777X or exercising A351/A380 options. A 351 purchase was less risky and gives them more flexibility. So I take option C: they chose not to make a decision and bought an insurance policy instead. But I think we agree it was Boeing's deal to lose and they at least lost most of it by waiting to launch.

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 11):
The BA part of IAG don't need more than ~ 15-hours of endurance.

Does IB need more range either? I cannot come up with a city more than 6knm from LHR/MAD that is worth flying to (EZE at 13.4 hours). Dozens of -10s I suspect.

tortugamon
 
kaitak
Posts: 8947
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 1999 5:49 am

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 2:48 am

Presumably we should now find out the exact dimensions (and seat counts) of the new model?

I see that Boeing is saying that 787-size windows are now on the table; surely that's going to add a hell of a lot to design costs?
 
baw716
Posts: 1460
Joined: Thu Nov 20, 2003 7:02 pm

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 3:15 am

I don't want to sound cynical, BUT

Hopefully, Boeing will learn something from the 787 debacle and not build the 777-X the same in the same manner. Build the thing like the 777 is now built (I'm talking process) and things will be just fine.

If they had done that with the 787, I wonder if Boeing would be in the position it now finds itself...digging themselves out of a hole.

baw716
David L. Lamb, fmr Area Mgr Alitalia SFO 1998-2002, fmr Regional Analyst SFO-UAL 1992-1998
 
flyabr
Posts: 753
Joined: Fri Sep 19, 2003 11:42 am

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 4:59 am

What about the authority to offer the 781???
 
rj777
Posts: 1549
Joined: Sat Dec 02, 2000 1:47 am

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 5:40 am

I have a feeling it won't take too long for a launch order to come out, seeing as how some airlines (EK for example) have been foaming at the mouth for it.

And if that's the case, we might see the 777X launch BEFORE the 787-10.
 
tortugamon
Topic Author
Posts: 6674
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 6:13 am

Quoting kaitak (Reply 13):
Presumably we should now find out the exact dimensions (and seat counts) of the new model?

I believe we are still looking at a 353-seat, 69.55m 777-8X and a 407-seat, 76.48m 777-9X and an 8LX with 9500nm range all with a 71m wing even though when they asked me I told them to try to make each of them a little bigger.  
Quoting baw716 (Reply 14):
Boeing will learn something from the 787 debacle

We all hope so. I am just not sure the 7E7 would have been launched if it had the 777 production model when they decided to launch it. At least the 787 has years to run to gain some upside. I am just as fearful of the 747-8i case study and having them try to make/sell an aircraft that is not remarkably more efficient than the model sized below it nor above it instead of just the model it is replacing. I think the 9x has the makings to be a a rock star.

Quoting flyabr (Reply 15):
What about the authority to offer the 781???

I believe the sales team received that in the Fall.

Jon Ostrower quotes Mike Bair that 80-90% of the 777X's efficiency gains come from the new (4th generation) carbon fiber wing and GE engines (both bigger but lighter). Not sure I get how the 787 has three generations of wing technology in it? Also, I have a hard time understanding how a lighter possibly Al-Li fuselage and changes to the empennage are going to amount to more than 10% of the gains. Can these changes make >3% gain in fuel burn with a larger wetted area? Any, even uneducated, thoughts on either of these questions would be appreciated.

tortugamon
 
Hamlet69
Posts: 2466
Joined: Thu Mar 09, 2000 2:45 am

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 6:19 am

Quoting flyabr (Reply 15):

What about the authority to offer the 781???


Supposedly was granted late last year. BA's recent order also supposedly includes -10's, pending formal launch.

From what I've heard, Boeing has put most public 787 developments on hold while the grounding/battery issues were resolved (not a good time to be putting out PR about a future development while your current offer is grounded). Also, per an interview last week, they're want to look at a potential production rate increase before they launch it (delivery dates would be part of any formal firm order).

If I were to make a prediction - we'll prolly be close to a formal 787-10 launch at Paris, while also hearing about tentative 777X launch orders then too. Formal 777X launch will then come at the end of the year (maybe Dubai, but prolly a few weeks after).


Regards,

Hamlet69
Honor the warriors, not the war.
 
tortugamon
Topic Author
Posts: 6674
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 7:28 am

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 11):
They are likely to fit the A35J out to a 299 seat count as in their 4-class 77W.

Do you think they will still fit in an 8-across Club World staggered seat in the smaller fuselage? Maybe a 7-across to preserve the 21.4" seat? That wouldn't be a big change to your figures though as Y, Y+, and F should not impacted.

A 10Y, 9Y+, 8ClubWorld, and 4F 777-9X should have 48 more seats or 292 vs ~340. IMO there is definitely room if the economics beat the 351, costs are competitive with the 388, customers are content with 10 abreast in Y, and its delivered without significant delay to plan. Lots of hurdles but they can do it for sure.

tortugamon
 
User avatar
KarelXWB
Crew
Posts: 19948
Joined: Sun Jul 15, 2012 6:13 pm

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 7:38 am

Quoting flyabr (Reply 15):
What about the authority to offer the 781???

October last year.
Close, but no cigar http://vine.co/v/OjqeYWWpVWK
 
waly777
Posts: 416
Joined: Sun Oct 07, 2012 7:11 pm

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 9:50 am

It looks like just the 9X and 8LX will be offered in that order according to aviation week......5th paragraph

http://www.aviationweek.com/Article....e-xml/awx_05_01_2013_p0-575533.xml
The test of first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold 2 opposed ideas in the mind concurrently, and still function
 
User avatar
rotating14
Posts: 1120
Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2012 11:54 pm

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 10:05 am

Quoting waly777 (Reply 21):
It looks like just the 9X and 8LX will be offered in that order according to aviation week......5th paragraph

http://www.aviationweek.com/Article....3.xml

I was hoping that the 777-8x would have the 2 versions that have been floating around here on A.net. As much as many on here will disagree with me, I can see, from a certain standpoint, the aim that Boeing has with the 8x being pitted against the 351. What worries me in the EIS for it. 2021 is too late in my humble opinion, assuming things go according to plan.
 
RickNRoll
Posts: 1213
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2012 9:30 am

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 10:18 am

Quoting waly777 (Reply 21):
t looks like just the 9X and 8LX will be offered in that order according to aviation week......5th paragraph

Yet super long range planes never seem to sell too well.
 
BlueSky1976
Posts: 1605
Joined: Tue Jul 20, 2004 9:18 am

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 10:34 am

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 22):
What worries me in the EIS for it. 2021 is too late in my humble opinion, assuming things go according to plan.

2021 is an ideal EIS for many carriers, who use their 777s between North America and Asia (Delta, American, United). I'm sure advances in wing and engine technology, as well as usage of the advanced alloys pitched by Alcoa will make it at least on par, if not better, than A350-1000.

One thing is for sure - 777-8X will sell in far greater numbers than 777-200LR. Not everyone will need the 400-seater -9X will be.
POLAND IS UNDER DICTATORSHIP. PLEASE SUPPORT COMMITTEE FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACY, K.O.D.
 
User avatar
rotating14
Posts: 1120
Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2012 11:54 pm

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 11:09 am

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 24):
2021 is an ideal EIS for many carriers, who use their 777s between North America and Asia (Delta, American, United).



You forgot Qantas in that mix.   
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23081
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 12:33 pm

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 11):
They are likely to fit the A35J out to a 299 seat count as in their 4-class 77W.
Quoting tortugamon (Reply 19):
Do you think they will still fit in an 8-across Club World staggered seat in the smaller fuselage?

BA won't be able to fit Club World at 2+4+2 in an A350. The A350-1000's cabin is also only about a half-meter longer than the 777-300ER, so BA will either have to reduce the CW seat count by ~7 (1 seat per row going to 2+3+2 as on the 787) or poach space from another class of service to put in the extra row of CW to maintain the same seat count.
 
Navion
Posts: 1052
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 1:52 am

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 12:46 pm

Quoting baw716 (Reply 14):
Hopefully, Boeing will learn something from the 787 debacle and not build the 777-X the same in the same manner.

This comment is already outdated as Boeing has brought or bought big parts of the chain "in house" on the 787. The well-performing partners are still doing their thing but the "weak-sisters" have been bought out or their share reduced. Boeing has already learned a lot and while they'll still have outsourced partners, I think we'll see more major components made in the U.S. such as (for example) the wings. The fuselage is also likely to remain here as it's not likely to be composite. There's been significant discussion on Boeing's ability to make the wings on-site at PAE using the buildings on the south side of the field.
 
StickShaker
Posts: 620
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2004 7:34 pm

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 2:17 pm

Quoting waly777 (Reply 21):
It looks like just the 9X and 8LX will be offered in that order according to aviation week......5th paragraph
Quoting rotating14 (Reply 22):
I was hoping that the 777-8x would have the 2 versions

This is interesting - has the standard 8X been dropped ? Are there any other sources to confirm this ?



Regards,
StickShaker
 
JAAlbert
Posts: 1553
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 12:43 pm

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 2:29 pm

Love, love the proposal to increase window size! I think it makes a big difference.

Any news on cabin width? I recall reading that Boeing was trying to increase interior width by decreasing insulation in the side walls - but to give economy seats a more spacious 18" seat would require finding 8 additional inches which seems impossible even if the side walls are narrower.
 
User avatar
KarelXWB
Crew
Posts: 19948
Joined: Sun Jul 15, 2012 6:13 pm

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 2:47 pm

Quoting StickShaker (Reply 28):
has the standard 8X been dropped

Was it ever official?  
Close, but no cigar http://vine.co/v/OjqeYWWpVWK
 
Bogi
Posts: 451
Joined: Sun Sep 09, 2001 5:00 am

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 3:06 pm

"Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?"

No, but certainly a plethora of words can explain what that is.
 
User avatar
SEPilot
Posts: 4962
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:21 pm

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 3:39 pm

Quoting StickShaker (Reply 28):
This is interesting - has the standard 8X been dropped ? Are there any other sources to confirm this ?

From what I have read the standard 8X offers absolutely no advantage over the A3510 (except a bit more weight capacity), and will burn more fuel. Why build it if nobody is going to buy it (especially since the A3510 will be available earlier)? The A-345/6 certainly showed the difficulty of selling a plane that is significantly outperformed by its competitor; but in that case it was available earlier. I don't think, based on what I have read, that the gap between the A3510 and the 778X will be as large as between the A346 and the 77W, but it will be enough to sway all but the most diehard Boeing fans towards the A3510, and the ranks of such diehard Boeing fans running airlines has dwindled down to just about zero.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
ytz
Posts: 3033
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2009 12:31 am

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 4:07 pm

Quoting waly777 (Reply 21):
It looks like just the 9X and 8LX will be offered in that order according to aviation week......5th paragraph

http://www.aviationweek.com/Article....3.xml

Makes sense. The 777-8X wouldn't really be all that competitive with the A350-1000.
 
User avatar
KarelXWB
Crew
Posts: 19948
Joined: Sun Jul 15, 2012 6:13 pm

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 4:57 pm

Also from Jon Ostrower on Twitter:

Quote:
Just two 777X models, says @avweekguy & my sources. 777-9X and -8LX. Boeing wants daylight between 787-10X & ULR 777.

Seems to be some debate about what the -8LX really is. Most likely just a name. 777-8X may have the capabilities of the -8LX.

This matches exactly what I said in some previous threads: there is no point of offering a direct 1 to 1 competitor in the 350-seat market segment. The competition in this relatively small market is already very hard and the less economic airframe will eventually be killed. Instead of wasting money on killing each other, both Airbus and Boeing should offer a unique airframe so the market can be equally split.
Close, but no cigar http://vine.co/v/OjqeYWWpVWK
 
morrisond
Posts: 219
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 5:21 pm

At what point do the economics on a A351 vs. 778LR cross? When does the extra revenue from extra Cargo on the 778 offset the extra fuel burn?

I'm assuming the 778LR can tank a lot more fuel - does it have the belly/weight capacity at same passenger load to offset the extra fuel burn?
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 9854
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 5:25 pm

Quoting morrisond (Reply 35):
I'm assuming the 778LR can tank a lot more fuel - does it have the belly/weight capacity at same passenger load to offset the extra fuel burn?

What killed the A340-600 ???????????? it was not that ability to lift cargo..........
We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
 
tortugamon
Topic Author
Posts: 6674
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 6:11 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 34):
there is no point of offering a direct 1 to 1 competitor in the 350-seat market segment.

Agreed. Especially when they were already planning a range expanding 323 seat -10X. I had a hard time understanding the difference between the 8X and the 8LX anyway - same wing, engines, dimensions, hmmm

So an 8LX that should be able to do DXB-LAX with close to 35t and 350 passengers that EK wants and then make the 9X a super efficient cruiser with just a tick above 8knm range.

Quoting morrisond (Reply 35):
When does the extra revenue from extra Cargo on the 778 offset the extra fuel burn?

Do you think there is any way that Boeing & GE will be able to get the fuel burn per (10Y) passenger down to on par with the 351? I know the wing and the engine will be too big/heavy but 5 years of additional engineering time should help a little. Fleet commonality with better legs and more cargo could be dangerous against a similarly fuel burning 351.

Quoting zeke (Reply 36):
What killed the A340-600 ?

Good point but at least this will be a twin vs a twin so it could be more competitive.

When does Boeing start the price drop on the 77W so that anyone that needs 350 seats is good until next decade?

tortugamon
 
User avatar
KarelXWB
Crew
Posts: 19948
Joined: Sun Jul 15, 2012 6:13 pm

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 6:26 pm

Quoting RickNRoll (Reply 23):
Yet super long range planes never seem to sell too well.

Correct, and that won't change much but the current generation ULH planes are also relatively small. The range of the LR (9400nm) combined with the amount of seats of the 77W (350) should turn the -8LX into an excellent payload/range airframe. Something EK could use. Boeing can easily sell 50 units to EK and make money on it.

The -8LX frame should also become the basis for a future freighter.

[Edited 2013-05-02 11:31:04]
Close, but no cigar http://vine.co/v/OjqeYWWpVWK
 
bigjku
Posts: 870
Joined: Sat Feb 17, 2007 10:51 pm

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 7:02 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 38):
The -8LX frame should also become the basis for a future freighter.

I also would not be shocked if the 777 freighter in this incarnation was the basis for at least one run of USAF tankers (order to be in 3 groups) when it comes time to retire the KC-10's. Most will be 767's but I would guess some will be 777's.
 
sunrisevalley
Posts: 4985
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2004 3:26 am

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 7:13 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 38):
The range of the LR (9400nm) combined with the amount of seats of the 77W (350) should turn the -8LX into an excellent payload/range airframe.

To get into the ballpark , take a look at the 77L load/range chart and move the MZFW line up to ~230t and to the right by about 1000nm.

Quoting RickNRoll (Reply 23):
Yet super long range planes never seem to sell too well.


so far as the 77L is concerned it was too late . Many operators had settled on the 77E and the advantages of the 77L over about 1500nm and up only became obvious after its EIS.
 
User avatar
KarelXWB
Crew
Posts: 19948
Joined: Sun Jul 15, 2012 6:13 pm

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Thu May 02, 2013 7:16 pm

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 40):
To get into the ballpark , take a look at the 77L load/range chart and move the MZFW line up to ~230t and to the right by about 1000nm.
http://oi37.tinypic.com/2hhdipw.jpg
Close, but no cigar http://vine.co/v/OjqeYWWpVWK
 
tortugamon
Topic Author
Posts: 6674
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Fri May 03, 2013 1:03 am

I ran across this quote from this Jefferies analyst Howard Rubel today in Bloomberg: "Our industry order estimates had factored about 200-250 launch orders from a range of carriers."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...-777x-jet-starts-marketing-to.html

200 seamed high to me in terms of launch orders 6 years out. So I penciled out some customers that came to mind and how much I thought they might be interested in after I glanced at their fleets. This is total firm frames for both models. I would not expect them all to come through, just trying to see how to get to 200. Thoughts?

Carrier # of Firm Orders Each
EK - 100
AF/KLM, CX - 20-30
QR, EY, SQ, JAL, IAG, UA - 10-20
BR, PR - Less Than 10

tortugamon
 
User avatar
rotating14
Posts: 1120
Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2012 11:54 pm

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Fri May 03, 2013 1:54 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 42):
Carrier # of Firm Orders Each
EK - 100
AF/KLM, CX - 20-30
QR, EY, SQ, JAL, IAG, UA - 10-20
BR, PR - Less Than 10

This might be wishful thinking but SAA could make a good candidate. Maybe the 8LX, the 9x, not so much. Also PR might be on the upper end of 20 or so frames.
http://www.stasiareport.com/the-big-...oking-buy-20-boeing-777x-jets-2013

BR has current model 773's on the way but they do have some 744's still flying so them buying the 7778/9x could depend on either growth/expansion or replacement.

Since DL flys their planes to the very death, I could see them grabbing some slots to make more sense of the RFP that they had out recently http://www.dailyfinance.com/2013/03/...boeing-airbus-aircraft-order-jets/

But time will have to tell.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23081
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Fri May 03, 2013 1:55 am

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 43):
This might be wishful thinking but SAA could make a good candidate.

Newspaper reports state that SAA have already decided on the A350.
 
StickShaker
Posts: 620
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2004 7:34 pm

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Fri May 03, 2013 2:04 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 32):
Why build it if nobody is going to buy it (especially since the A3510 will be available earlier)?

No doubt that is what has killed it. The 8X had a very cool reception from airlines right from the start

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 37):
Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 34):there is no point of offering a direct 1 to 1 competitor in the 350-seat market segment. The competition in this relatively small market is already very hard and the less economic airframe will eventually be killed.
Agreed. Especially when they were already planning a range expanding 323 seat -10X.

The 350 seat segment is not that small (the 77W has close to 700 orders) and it is extremely lucrative. I'm sure Boeing would be delighted to offer a direct 1 to 1 competitor if they had an appropriate airframe - no OEM would voluntarily abdicate from a market segment that had served them so well just to avoid a sales brawl. It is Boeing's customers who have pulled the plug on the 8X. As you say - the 787-10 is well placed to fill some of that gap even though its primary role is 330/772 type routes.

I can't help wondering if this is a signal that Boeing will further grow the 787-10 in capacity and range to fill the gap left by the 8X. I know this is a well worn topic on A.net but it would be a tempting strategy for Boeing in the event of a sales avalanche for the 35J.


Regards,
StickShaker
 
BlueSky1976
Posts: 1605
Joined: Tue Jul 20, 2004 9:18 am

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Fri May 03, 2013 5:00 am

Quoting StickShaker (Reply 45):
I can't help wondering if this is a signal that Boeing will further grow the 787-10 in capacity and range to fill the gap left by the 8X. I know this is a well worn topic on A.net but it would be a tempting strategy for Boeing in the event of a sales avalanche for the 35J.

Boeing will not need to do this. 787-10 will be excellent aircraft for North America - Europe, North - South America, intra-Asia, as well as Europe - Middle East - type routes. 777-8X will nicely complement it on North/South America - Asia and Africa - North America routes, as well as Asia - Europe ones for everyone, who will not need 400 seater and who would like to "keep it in the family" with Boeing.

I could see many carriers ordering combination of 787-10, 777-8X and -9X for their operations. Only in North America, there are four prime candidates for it, with quite a few more from other places in the world. Keep in mind that it will be more difficult to obtain early delivery slots for the A350-1000, and for deliveries after 2021, it will be an even match.

Again, I do expect 777-8X to sell in significantly larger numbers than 777-200LR due to its lower fuel burn per seat and capabilities. A lot of airlines do require 350-seater, not many need 400-seater.
POLAND IS UNDER DICTATORSHIP. PLEASE SUPPORT COMMITTEE FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACY, K.O.D.
 
tortugamon
Topic Author
Posts: 6674
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Fri May 03, 2013 5:07 am

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 43):
Also PR might be on the upper end of 20 or so frames.

They were quoted saying: "It depends on the price. We are looking at the new Boeing 777X. We may buy 10 and, if it performs well, we'll exercise an option for 10 more," sounds like 10 and 10 to me.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...pines-boeing-idUSL3N0CH1GM20130325

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 43):
BR has current model 773's on the way


Yes, they are a bit of a stretch for them but their CEO came out last month and said: Both types are on our shopping list, and we are waiting for Boeing to reveal more information with respect to the 787-10 and 777X when the programs are launched,

RE: Delta Looking at 777 and 330
The story you are referencing applies to current 777 technology not future designs. Delta likes mature products with reliable delivery dates. They are still trying to negotiate another 737NG order for the end of the run. I could see a handful of last off the line 77Ls and 77Ws if Boeing wants to meet their price demands.

Quoting StickShaker (Reply 45):
I can't help wondering if this is a signal that Boeing will further grow the 787-10 in capacity and range to fill the gap left by the 8X

Saw your post today on planetalking. Mr S obviously really know his stuff but he has it out for Boeing right now; the 787 and the 10Y 777. Anyway, I think it is critical for Boeing to be able to sell the -10 with a lower trip cost (and more seats) than the A359. I believe that will keep sales of the excellent looking -900 from selling unchecked. Stretching it any further or trying to give it more range will certainly hurt fuel burn and that is its biggest selling point IMO. If a carrier absolutely needs to carry 9% more capacity or fly over 5,500nm with a decent load, then it is the 777-8LX territory or more likely the 351  . The -10 can take some sales away from the 351 as long as it is more efficient on 10 hour routes and I think that should be the focus. What gap is there to fill? 9% more capacity than the -10 and 12% more range, appears niche.

Speaking of efficiency, Randy Tinseth came out with this quote today when speaking of the 77X: "Its also expected to provide the lowest fuel burn per seat of any airplane in commercial service." http://www.boeingblogs.com/randy/

I have definitely heard the claim that it will be the most efficient two engine aircraft but this is the first quote about competition with the A388. Very interesting. Cue A389.

tortugamon
 
tortugamon
Topic Author
Posts: 6674
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Fri May 03, 2013 5:12 am

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 46):
not many need 400-seater.

747 didn't do too bad and if the -9 has the lowest seat cost of any commercial jet liner I think some carriers will find a home for it.  

tortugamon
 
User avatar
KarelXWB
Crew
Posts: 19948
Joined: Sun Jul 15, 2012 6:13 pm

RE: Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X?

Fri May 03, 2013 8:17 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 48):
if the -9 has the lowest seat cost of any commercial jet liner I think some carriers will find a home for it.

It's not that easy. For example, the A380 offers the lowest seat cost but is struggling for new orders due the weak market. The formula doesn't work if you cannot fill the seats.

[Edited 2013-05-03 01:18:19]
Close, but no cigar http://vine.co/v/OjqeYWWpVWK

Who is online