jetblueguy22
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National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Thu May 02, 2013 6:25 pm

Greetings everyone,
The last thread was getting pretty long so Part 2 is being created. The previous thread can be found here National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram (by Gonzalo Apr 29 2013 in Civil Aviation) .
Regards,
Pat
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rfields5421
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Thu May 02, 2013 6:28 pm

I don't know if this made it on the older thread.

Quoting zeke (Reply 273):
I see no reason why these vehicles could not have been returned back to the US via sea transport. That is how most of them arrive in country.

A surprisingly large percentage of the vehicles used in Afghanistan were flown in - though in relatively short hops from Muscat and Oman.

There are two land routes into Afghanistan - from the seaports of Pakistan on the southeast side of Afghanistan.

Unfortunately, this route is subject to closures - and weapons have never been allowed on this route. Those vehicles might be considered weapons.

(Munitions - bullets and bombs - are all flown into the country - usually from ports in the Gulf)

The route for many vehicles would usually include being shipped to Riga Latvia on the Baltic Sea - then a 3,212 mile train route in Russia then thru Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to Termez.

Another route is from Poti, Georgia on the Black Sea by rail to Baku, Azerbaijan - by barge across the Caspian Sea - and then by rail through Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan to Termez. (About 1/3 of the cargo for NATO forces in Afghanistan went this way in 2010 - the rest by the Baltic Sea routes.)

There have been difficulties in Uzbekistan so an alternate for the Baltic route was developed from Kazakhstan thru Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

Once the vehicles get to Termez - they have to be loaded on trucks and driven through high mountian passes - including passing through a 1.5 mile long tunnel at 11,000 ft altitude about 30 miles north of Bagram.

-------------------------------------------------

Quoting zeke (Reply 284):
The idea solution would be to have a good runway/port in Gwadar on the coast that can be served by smaller regular transports.


Yes, but that isn't going to happen due to political issues. Pakistan is not going to allow weapons to be loaded/ offloaded at their ports/ airfields.

Quoting bikerthai (Reply 285):
Another reason is air shipping probably require less prep work than sea-shipping for vehicles.


The vehicles were only being flown to a nearby accessible seaport. Sea transport is how they will get back to the US.

[Edited 2013-05-02 11:40:10]
 
canoecarrier
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Thu May 02, 2013 7:09 pm

Someone asked in the other thread if the crash may have been caught on other cameras at the base. I have a friend that was stationed at a large base in Iraq and he mentioned there were cameras everywhere. There probably is other footage available to investigators, but as he said a lot of what is captured by those cameras is never released to the public by the military.

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 1):
(Munitions - bullets and bombs - are all flown into the country - usually from ports in the Gulf)

The route for many vehicles would usually include being shipped to Riga Latvia on the Baltic Sea - then a 3,212 mile train route in Russia then thru Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to Termez.

When the Pakistanis shut the PAKGLOC, or PAKistan Ground Lines of Communication down a couple years ago all non-lethal supplies and equipment came in either by air or through the Northern Distribution Network, or NDN. That route to my knowledge is open now. For comparison, in 2012 dollars, it cost $17,500/container to go the NDN route and $7,200/container to go the PAKGLOC route. An estimate last year was there are 120,000 containers to move. By sending some of the equipment to other seaports it may be reasonably cost effective, depending on the cargo, to get them shipped by air.

http://unnamedharald.hubpages.com/hub/NATO-The-Way-Out-of-Afghanistan#

Here's some graphics to support what you said Fields.

PAKGLOC routes into/out of Afghanistan:



NDN route through Latvia and out using the Russian rail network:

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Gonzalo
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Thu May 02, 2013 7:49 pm

I think is adequate to include in the beggining of this thread the public statement made ( today in the morning ) by National Air Cargo ( posted by member Blueflyer in Reply 274 of Part 1 ) :

http://evaint.com/industry-news/statement-from-national-air-cargo


"National Air Cargo will not speculate as to the cause of the accident involving National Flight NCR102. With our full cooperation, an investigation by appropriate authorities is under way, and we encourage everyone to join us in respecting that process and allowing it to take its appropriate course.

Here are some facts regarding the aircraft and its movements prior to the accident:

-- National Flight NCR102 was en route to Dubai from Camp Bastian and had stopped to refuel at Bagram Air Base.

-- The cargo contained within the aircraft was properly loaded and secured, and had passed all necessary inspections prior to departing Camp Bastian.

-- The aircraft landed safely and uneventfully in Bagram.

-- No additional cargo or personnel was added during the stop in Bagram, and the aircraft's cargo was again inspected prior to departure. "
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Gatorman96
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Thu May 02, 2013 8:03 pm

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 1):
A surprisingly large percentage of the vehicles used in Afghanistan were flown in - though in relatively short hops from Muscat and Oman.

Yep, and a surprisingly large percentage of vehicles (particularly MRAPs) will not be shipped home, but rather sold off to "friendly" CENTCOM nations or piled in scrap heaps at US bases...

Quoting Zeke:
I see no reson for that, the base whist US military run, is by no means a top secret base. A lot of civil traffic and people work there.

You give Bagram very little credit. I know plenty of defense contractors (civilians) there that hold top secret clearances and partake in top secret operations. Although there are Afghan nationals on the base at all times, they are not walking willy nilly around the airfield. The sensitive locations are tightly guarded by American forces.

I'm sure any pertinent videos will be released to the NTSB and to the Afghan CAA, but they will most likely not be released to the public. It is important to maintain operational security...
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F9Animal
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Thu May 02, 2013 8:07 pm

Someone mentioned that a picture was frozen to say the gears appeared to be in the process of lowering. Is it possible that a hydraulic failure could make the gear doors drop down? Maybe a load shifted, and it could have damaged the hydraulic systems?
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moriarty
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Thu May 02, 2013 8:12 pm

In reply to jollo, Reply 268 in previous thread (part 1):

Exactly my point! I listed those crashes as example of what one might consider to come close but I think I missed to clearify that I do not think they do, pretty much due to the reasons you listed. So I totally agree. Spectacular as they might be on video, they are mostly quite unique.

However, I can add one reason this video is so horrifying: it is really, really close.

In reply to Gonzalo, Reply 251 in previous thread (part 1):
My bad! Sorry!
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Type-Rated
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Thu May 02, 2013 8:13 pm

If the load shifted and went through the rear pressure bulkhead it would not be out of the normal realm of thinking that they may have had a hydraulics failure during the accident sequence. There are hydraulic lines in that area.

But National said that the weight and balances were checked and everything was tied down properly. So what happened then?
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Gatorman96
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Thu May 02, 2013 8:28 pm

Quoting type-rated (Reply 7):
But National said that the weight and balances were checked and everything was tied down properly. So what happened then?

Nothing against National, but what else would they say? If there was a load shift, it will be next to impossible to prove what caused the MRAP to move out of its intended position...
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Starlionblue
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Thu May 02, 2013 8:29 pm

In reply to Bikerthai from previous thread:

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 225):
The animation specifically says that a load shift may have tilted the aircraft skyward, which in turn may have caused the engines to stall.

Never heard of an engine stall. Heard of a compressor stall. Usually comes with lots of shakes, maybe smoke and flame shooting out the front and back. Are we talking about the same thing?

From the context, I do think they mean compressor stall, but then again I don't think they know what that is any more than they know the difference from an aerodynamic stall.

Heh. I see NMA News have made the video private.
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Silver1SWA
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Thu May 02, 2013 8:49 pm

Quoting type-rated (Reply 7):
But National said that the weight and balances were checked and everything was tied down properly. So what happened then?

Well to be clear, they said cargo was properly loaded and secured prior to departure from Camp Bastion. They were a little more careful with their wording regarding leaving Bagram, saying only that the load was inspected.
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shufflemoomin
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Thu May 02, 2013 9:02 pm

Does anyone know what laws would apply here if it's discovered that a load shift was responsible? Would whoever inspected and signed off on the load before take off be facing jail time?
 
Gatorman96
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Thu May 02, 2013 9:07 pm

Quoting shufflemoomin (Reply 11):
Does anyone know what laws would apply here if it's discovered that a load shift was responsible? Would whoever inspected and signed off on the load before take off be facing jail time?

May not apply at all if the responsible person(s) were sadly aboard the ill-fated aircraft...

[Edited 2013-05-02 14:09:23]
Cha brro
 
135mech
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Thu May 02, 2013 9:08 pm

Quoting Silver1SWA (Reply 10):
Quoting type-rated (Reply 7):
But National said that the weight and balances were checked and everything was tied down properly. So what happened then?

Well to be clear, they said cargo was properly loaded and secured prior to departure from Camp Bastion. They were a little more careful with their wording regarding leaving Bagram, saying only that the load was inspected.

I saw that too! If this were (and hopefully soon we will know) a load shift, there are a variety of reasons it could have happened. As we know chains, straps, tie-downs, and all other "mechanical" securing devices can eventually crack and brack/tear; it's a part of "wear and tear', and most all of the time things like this are noticed/caught. However, if something broke on that last take off, it would truly be an accident (as defined)...

In some of our training, "accidents" are defined by percentages:
88% Human Error (no, I AM NOT claiming this for this event)
10% Truly Accidental - caused by wear and tear, breakage, etc
2% Natural Disaster/Effects

So, that's my itty-bit of input for the possibility of "wear and tear" as a "maybe" cause.

Regards,
135Mech
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PlanesNTrains
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Thu May 02, 2013 9:49 pm

Quoting 135mech (Reply 13):
I saw that too! If this were (and hopefully soon we will know) a load shift, there are a variety of reasons it could have happened. As we know chains, straps, tie-downs, and all other "mechanical" securing devices can eventually crack and brack/tear; it's a part of "wear and tear', and most all of the time things like this are noticed/caught.

However, with the redundancies that are apparently involved with securing these loads, one strap/tie-down/etc failing would seem unlikely to this novice to cause the load to shift. However, I don't know what the interface is between the straps/tie-downs and the aircraft. Are there, say, 28 different attachment-points for 28 different straps, or would 6 straps feed into one, heavy-duty tied down? If that attachment point failed, then perhaps that would be enough to start the chain reaction?

-Dave
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135mech
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Thu May 02, 2013 10:02 pm

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 14):
However, with the redundancies that are apparently involved with securing these loads, one strap/tie-down/etc failing would seem unlikely to this novice to cause the load to shift. However, I don't know what the interface is between the straps/tie-downs and the aircraft. Are there, say, 28 different attachment-points for 28 different straps, or would 6 straps feed into one, heavy-duty tied down? If that attachment point failed, then perhaps that would be enough to start the chain reaction?

-Dave

Unfortunately we may never truly know what could have initiated a cargo shift, if that was what happened. But, one simple "link" starts the chain of events.

Once again.. R.I.P. to those involved.

135Mech

p.s. I agree with your next post also! (Reply 16).

[Edited 2013-05-02 15:33:23]
135Mech
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Thu May 02, 2013 10:25 pm

Quoting 135mech (Reply 15):
Unfortunately we may never truly know what could have initiated a cargo shift, if that was what happened. But, one simple "link" starts the chain of events.

It's hard to disagree with that assessment. However, if someone has better insight into the physical tie-down process/interface in a 744F, particularly for loads like these, that'd be interesting to understand better.

FWIW, I have in my head that it's likely a load shift, but if the aircraft was fine from Camp Bastion to Bagram, and nothing changed in Bagram, it seems like I need to perhaps open my own mind more to what other reasons there could be for what happened. Of course, I don't have a clue - not an industry guy - but something obviously went terribly wrong.

-Dave
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bikerthai
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Thu May 02, 2013 10:33 pm

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 16):
but if the aircraft was fine from Camp Bastion to Bagram, and nothing changed in Bagram, it seems like I need to perhaps open my own mind more to what other reasons there could be for what happened.

If they came in to Bagram for fuel, perhaps they took off heavier (more fuel) than they did at Camp Bastion . . . how does that change their calculations?

bt
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Gatorman96
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Thu May 02, 2013 10:54 pm

PlanesNTrains, this photo gallery was posted somewhere in the previous thread:
http://www.automobilemag.com/feature..._vehicle_afghanistan/photo_32.html

It documents MRAPs being loaded into an Atlas Air 742F, the same type of MRAPs that were supposedly loaded into the National bird. This will at least give you an idea on how the vehicles are secured for transport...
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PlanesNTrains
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Thu May 02, 2013 11:04 pm

Quoting gatorman96 (Reply 18):
PlanesNTrains, this photo gallery was posted somewhere in the previous thread:

Thanks - forgot about that in the first thread. So it seems that there are multiple tie down spots, but perhaps a weak spot on one of the vehicles, perhaps brought on by damage in use, could have created an opportunity for a shifted load?

Really no clue - hopefully others with more knowledge on the workings of these loads would have more insight. Not so much on this particular incident, but rather on the concept in general.

-Dave
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Starlionblue
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Thu May 02, 2013 11:33 pm

Quoting bikerthai (Reply 17):
Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 16):
but if the aircraft was fine from Camp Bastion to Bagram, and nothing changed in Bagram, it seems like I need to perhaps open my own mind more to what other reasons there could be for what happened.

If they came in to Bagram for fuel, perhaps they took off heavier (more fuel) than they did at Camp Bastion . . . how does that change their calculations?

Two effects:
- Heavier aircraft, meaning higher rotation speed and lower vertical speed.
- CG shift. However apart from the stab tank all the fuel is quite close to the CG so the CG effect would not be very great.
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F9Animal
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Fri May 03, 2013 12:47 am

So.... Lets say a MRAP somehow went through the pressure bulkhead, and severed hydraulics. Would severed hydraulics cause the landing gear doors to drop?
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AirlineCritic
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Fri May 03, 2013 1:01 am

It is a very interesting development that no cargo was added in Bagram.

Still, if the take-off climb at Bagram was steeper than at the previous location, a cargo shift is still a possibility.

But maybe we have to consider other possibilities as well. Unbalanced re-fueling, to the wrong tanks? Too much fuel? Simple piloting error to attempt climbing too steeply? Something else, what?
 
trnswrld
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Fri May 03, 2013 1:02 am

I have seen landing gear doors down mentioned a couple times. I paused the video just before impact and almost seemed like the nose gear doors were down, but I wasn't really sure. So has it been confirmed the doors were down or something else was going on like gear in transit?
 
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Fri May 03, 2013 1:08 am

Quoting F9animal (Reply 21):
So.... Lets say a MRAP somehow went through the pressure bulkhead, and severed hydraulics. Would severed hydraulics cause the landing gear doors to drop?

My guess is the gear was never raised. They were most likely way too busy trying to get the plane to push over right after rotation.
 
wjcandee
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Fri May 03, 2013 1:13 am

I'm thinking it's either the obvious: load shift, OR it's something less-obvious, which might well be the case here.

Who would have thunk that the AF accident would have been caused by what caused it?
Or that the Emery accident at MHR would have been anything but a load shift?

It shouldn't be long before we have a readout from the CVR and not long thereafter that we have a preliminary idea of what's on the DFDR, both of which should produce high-quality voice and high-quality data on many parameters. The ATG communications should already be available.

We've all said our RIPs and speculated based on the limited information we have. Let's give it a day or two to see what more info can guide the speculation.
 
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Fri May 03, 2013 2:28 am

Quoting TrnsWrld (Reply 23):
I have seen landing gear doors down mentioned a couple times. I paused the video just before impact and almost seemed like the nose gear doors were down

Looks to me like the gear was never raised and was down at the point of impact.
 
Gonzalo
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Fri May 03, 2013 2:28 am

Quoting TrnsWrld (Reply 23):
So has it been confirmed the doors were down or something else was going on like gear in transit?

There is a ( short ) time between the moment the aircraft begins to fall and the moment they leveled the wings, with the aircraft in a 90 degrees bank angle. Could this ( totally abnormal situation ) have any effect on the landing gear doors / actuators ?


Quoting wjcandee (Reply 25):
OR it's something less-obvious

In the first thread we have some people talking about updrafts ( almost a wind-shear going up instead the "traditional" downdraft ) like a possible causal factor of the stall.

The METAR for Bagram at the App time of take off :

KQSA 291155Z COR 33008G17KT 9999 -TSRA SCT050CB BKN090 BKN170 13/04 A2990 RMK CB OHD MOV N SLP139 WND DATA ESTMD ALSTG/SLP ESTMD 60000 70000 51014=
KQSA 291059Z 35011G17KT 9999 FEW050 BKN065 BKN090 14/05 A2993 RMK WND DATA ESTMD ALSTG/SLP ESTMD=
KQSA 291058Z 35011G17KT 9999 FEW050 BKN080CB BKN150 14/05 A2993 RMK LTG DSNT NW SLP124 WND DATA ESTMD ALSTG/SLP ESTMD=
KQSA 291055Z 02007KT 9999 FEW040 BKN080CB BKN150 18/06 A2994 RMK PK WND 06026/1005 WSHFT 1027 LTG DSNT NW CB DSNT NW SLP124 WND DATA ESTMD ALSTG/SLP ESTMD=

Looking at this METARS, and taking into account the terrain around the runway and the images of the sky in the background of the pictures / video, I have to ask : is there a real chance for the presence of updrafts ( strong enough to stall a B744 ) in this area ?

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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Fri May 03, 2013 2:57 am

Quoting Gonzalo (Reply 27):
KQSA 291155Z COR 33008G17KT 9999 -TSRA SCT050CB BKN090 BKN170 13/04 A2990 RMK CB OHD MOV N SLP139 WND DATA ESTMD ALSTG/SLP ESTMD 60000 70000 51014=
KQSA 291059Z 35011G17KT 9999 FEW050 BKN065 BKN090 14/05 A2993 RMK WND DATA ESTMD ALSTG/SLP ESTMD=
KQSA 291058Z 35011G17KT 9999 FEW050 BKN080CB BKN150 14/05 A2993 RMK LTG DSNT NW SLP124 WND DATA ESTMD ALSTG/SLP ESTMD=
KQSA 291055Z 02007KT 9999 FEW040 BKN080CB BKN150 18/06 A2994 RMK PK WND 06026/1005 WSHFT 1027 LTG DSNT NW CB DSNT NW SLP124 WND DATA ESTMD ALSTG/SLP ESTMD=

Thunderstorms with light rain. However cumulonimbus at 5000 feet means any storms were probably rather higher off the ground than the plane got. The wind is gusty but nothing that should faze a Cessna 172.

Can't exclude a microburst but I would not say it is likely. Also updrafts would not stall the aircraft per se.

[Edited 2013-05-02 19:58:28]
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rfields5421
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Fri May 03, 2013 3:09 am

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 28):
The wind is gusty but nothing that should faze a Cessna 172.

There is a note about the airport and weather reports on the Worldaerodata web site.

Quote:
Winds are est due to FMQ-13 wind sensors being accurate to within only +/- 4KT. ATC/Wx will not include/relay wind corrections into fcst/phraseology. Therefore aircrews will inc a +/- 4KT accuracy into their decision making process for flying opr.
 
ArmitageShanks
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Fri May 03, 2013 3:33 am

How would a stall protected fly by wire aircraft responded to this? I know it would have crashed anyway but would it have reacted any differently to the pilot inputs, etc?
 
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Fri May 03, 2013 3:45 am

Quoting Yakflyer (Reply 26):
Looks to me like the gear was never raised and was down at the point of impact.

I know, I didn't say anything about the gear ever being up. I would agree that it was probably never retracted in the first place. What I was saying is that a few guys posted something about gear doors being down and I also noticed that the split second before the crash it appears the nose gear doors are down. Again, it's hard to see but it seems like something is hanging down there and someone else questioned if damage hydraulics in the back of the plane would cause gear doors to hang down.
 
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zeke
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Fri May 03, 2013 6:01 am

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 1):
A surprisingly large percentage of the vehicles used in Afghanistan were flown in - though in relatively short hops from Muscat and Oman.

I am aware of that, I go through that part of the world enough to see/hear them. I have never heard of them going over Iran, always east along the Gulf of Oman, then taking up a Northly track once over Pakistan.

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 1):
Yes, but that isn't going to happen due to political issues. Pakistan is not going to allow weapons to be loaded/ offloaded at their ports/ airfields.

They do, the US continue to use Shahbaz (armed drones), Chaklala, Quetta, Tarbela (helicopters), and Peshawar. They even have had troops based at some of those bases when they were doing the relief work. Please remember this was a civil cargo flight, the vehicles would be disarmed.

Quoting canoecarrier (Reply 2):
lot of what is captured by those cameras is never released to the public by the military

Agreed, and the investigators may not need additional footage.

Quoting Gonzalo (Reply 3):
No additional cargo or personnel was added during the stop in Bagram, and the aircraft's cargo was again inspected prior to departure.

That does not rule out offloading cargo.

Quoting gatorman96 (Reply 4):
You give Bagram very little credit. I know plenty of defense contractors (civilians) there that hold top secret clearances and partake in top secret operations. Although there are Afghan nationals on the base at all times, they are not walking willy nilly around the airfield. The sensitive locations are tightly guarded by American forces.

Not at all. Even large bases in the US are made open to the public for airshows etc, those same bases also have more sensitive areas within in them. There are even nondescript office buildings that have areas which hold classified material. Just because part of a base may or may not have these sort of activities, it does not make the whole base top secret.

Quoting gatorman96 (Reply 4):
I'm sure any pertinent videos will be released to the NTSB and to the Afghan CAA, but they will most likely not be released to the public. It is important to maintain operational security...

I agree

Quoting F9animal (Reply 5):
Is it possible that a hydraulic failure could make the gear doors drop down?

I do not think so, the uplocks should hold even with hydraulic loss. There is also indications the rudder was deflected prior to impact, which also requires hydraulic power.

Quoting shufflemoomin (Reply 11):

Does anyone know what laws would apply here if it's discovered that a load shift was responsible? Would whoever inspected and signed off on the load before take off be facing jail time?

The PIC is the person responsible, other people can be contributing factors.

Quoting bikerthai (Reply 17):
If they came in to Bagram for fuel, perhaps they took off heavier (more fuel) than they did at Camp Bastion . . . how does that change their calculations?

It does not make sense to me to fly 300 nm NE to Bagram, and then I assume have fuel still to get back to Bastion as an alternate plus reserves when they could go into Pakistan, Oman, UAE etc. They only came in from DXB, they should have had heaps of room to tanker fuel for the return sector. With those vehicles onboard, the aircraft would be only around 50-60% of its maximum payload capability.

Reading the statement again, what they have not said is if they offloaded cargo at Bagram. Not suggesting they did or did not, just an observation they could offload underfloor or main deck pallets while still having the 5 vehicles on the main deck and they have not specifically denied this possibility.

I think there is a possibility they offloaded cargo at Bastion, loaded the vehicles, then went to Bagram and then possibly also offloaded more cargo. That would make more sense to me than going there just for fuel.
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Starlionblue
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Fri May 03, 2013 6:27 am

Quoting armitageshanks (Reply 30):
How would a stall protected fly by wire aircraft responded to this? I know it would have crashed anyway but would it have reacted any differently to the pilot inputs, etc?

Interesting question. If we assume that it was indeed a dramatic load shift towards the rear, the aircraft would have pitched up in the same way. Even with pitch trim trying to compensate the stabilizer to a full nose down position, the CG is too far aft for it to be effective (same as happened in this case if we assume load shift).

Let's also assume it is an Airbus. With the aircraft in an abnormal attitude, the control system would go into Abnormal Alternate Law. You'd be left with only load factor protection, thus the aircraft would no longer have stall protection. Pitch law would still be load factor demand but without the protections. Roll law would be direct. Yaw law would be alternate, which I think means just yaw damping.

I'd say it would have behaved in the same way. No control system in the world can change physics, and if the CG is way too far aft there are not many straws left to clutch at.
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zeke
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Fri May 03, 2013 6:32 am

Quoting armitageshanks (Reply 30):

How would a stall protected fly by wire aircraft responded to this? I know it would have crashed anyway but would it have reacted any differently to the pilot inputs, etc?

FBW in itself does nothing, it just replaces cables, pulleys, bell cranks, rods etc from the control column to the control surface.

It is the electronic flight control system (EFCS) that gets the pilots inputs, and generates surface movements. It has a feedback loop which will change the surface movements based upon the feedback on the aircraft performance. That feedback loop may have helped, it may not have. We do not know the cause yet.
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fdxgirl
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Fri May 03, 2013 7:01 am

So I'm just curious then, if the load was inspected and secured at the originating place.....How often are the actual individual straps and whatnot actually inspected for airworthyness? And for that matter, how often are connection points in the track system on the plane tested for g-force load bearing stress fractures? i'm not trying to stir the pot as in the last thread. Im just curious.
 
Flyer732
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Fri May 03, 2013 7:50 am

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 14):
However, with the redundancies that are apparently involved with securing these loads, one strap/tie-down/etc failing would seem unlikely to this novice to cause the load to shift. However, I don't know what the interface is between the straps/tie-downs and the aircraft. Are there, say, 28 different attachment-points for 28 different straps, or would 6 straps feed into one, heavy-duty tied down? If that attachment point failed, then perhaps that would be enough to start the chain reaction?
Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 16):
It's hard to disagree with that assessment. However, if someone has better insight into the physical tie-down process/interface in a 744F, particularly for loads like these, that'd be interesting to understand better.

26 straps are used to tie down the MRAPs to the floor of the 747. The vehicle itself is on two pallets which are center loaded on the aircraft. The vehicle has its tires deflated to a certain point to allow it to fit through the door of the aircraft, it is also chained with heavy duty chains to the pallet itself. The straps are put through tie down rings built onto the trucks (very very heavy duty rings) and are strapped to the floor. Its been several years since I've done one of the flights, but if my memory is correct we had straps from the front left to the floor (multiple straps), straps from the front right to the floor and the same for the back left and right. There were also straps going vertical from the truck to the floor.
You are protecting for movement in all directions, forward, backward, laterally and vertically.
26 straps is excessive, but we were restraining for max G load in all directions.
Once the loading process was understood, loading could be completed in about 30-45 minutes, then it would take 8-10 people around 1.5-2 hours to strap all the MRAPs down.
 
bueb0g
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Fri May 03, 2013 7:57 am

Quoting wjcandee (Reply 25):
Who would have thunk that the AF accident would have been caused by what caused it?

A lot of people... The iced pitot and crew induced stall was probably the number 1 theory, even before the CVR and FDR were found.

Quoting armitageshanks (Reply 30):

How would a stall protected fly by wire aircraft responded to this? I know it would have crashed anyway but would it have reacted any differently to the pilot inputs, etc?


Seeing as it looks as if the aircraft didn't have enough pitch authority to overcome whatever was pushing the nose up, it probably wouldn't have helped but we don't know for certain yet (and may never do).
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Fri May 03, 2013 11:33 am

Part from the video I've seen very few pics (a couple though) from the site. Anyone?
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rfields5421
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Fri May 03, 2013 12:10 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 32):
Not at all. Even large bases in the US

But Bagram is in an active combat zone. It has experienced several attacks by people who cleared normal security procedures.

Air shows and open houses always include security plans and roadblocks to keep visitors away from certain parts of the base.

Bagram It is now more secure, and more compartmented, than almost any base in the US. Once a person gains access to the base, they do not have free access to the entire base. I've talked to several US military folks who returned from Afghanistan who complain about having to show ID and prove a need to access different parts of the base.
 
soon7x7
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Fri May 03, 2013 12:50 pm

Quoting AirlineCritic (Reply 22):
But maybe we have to consider other possibilities as well. Unbalanced re-fueling, to the wrong tanks? Too much fuel? Simple piloting error to attempt climbing too steeply? Something else, what?

A runaway stab trim could have resulted in the same outcome. It has happened.
 
76er
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Fri May 03, 2013 1:02 pm

The 744 has an automatic cut out system that shuts off hydrolic power to the stabilizer whenever unscheduled trim occurs. The same thing happens when contol column input is given in the opposite direction of uncommanded stabilizer movement.
 
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zeke
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Fri May 03, 2013 1:03 pm

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 39):

Yep, I believe all that, however we are talking about the perimeter, runways, and flight line here, those cameras would be relatively open access areas. There are a number of civilian aircraft sharing that area, all you need to do is have a look at youtube and you can see videos of the area.
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Navigator
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Fri May 03, 2013 1:27 pm

Quoting AirlineCritic (Reply 22):
But maybe we have to consider other possibilities as well. Unbalanced re-fueling, to the wrong tanks? Too much fuel? Simple piloting error to attempt climbing too steeply? Something else, what?

Check this out for other possibilities:

"TIA was involved in a single fatal accident, involving a Douglas DC-8 N8963T ferry flight, with eight flight attendants and three cockpit crewmembers on board, en route from John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York City to Washington Dulles International Airport. On September 8, 1970 a foreign object became wedged between the right elevator and horizontal stabilizer, blown there by backwash from the aircraft preceding it on the taxiway. The problem was not detected, and the aircraft crashed upon takeoff with the loss of all 11 on board."
747-400/747-200/L1011/DC-10/DC-9/DC-8/MD-80/MD90/A340/A330/A300/A310/A321/A320/A319/767/757/737/727/HS-121/CV990/CV440/S
 
sankaps
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Fri May 03, 2013 2:10 pm

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 16):
FWIW, I have in my head that it's likely a load shift, but if the aircraft was fine from Camp Bastion to Bagram, and nothing changed in Bagram, it seems like I need to perhaps open my own mind more to what other reasons there could be for what happened

Most accidents caused by wear& tear / mechanical failure can be described similarly -- aircraft flew fine, completed its previous fight fine, until it crashed.

Think JAL 123, the CI 744 rear bulkhead failure, the Alaska MD80 elevator screw failure, the AA A300 rudder failure at JFK, and other similar crashes attributed to sudden unanticipated mechanical failures. All fine until something goes snap.

So I would not at this stage, until the investigation is complete, assume "something else" might have been behind this.
 
PHX787
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Fri May 03, 2013 2:18 pm

Anyone have any updates on if N8 is still operating?
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AeroWesty
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Fri May 03, 2013 2:24 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 45):

Anyone have any updates on if N8 is still operating?

Why wouldn't it be?

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ATCtower
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Fri May 03, 2013 2:51 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 32):
The PIC is the person responsible, other people can be contributing factors.

Someone will surely correct me if I am wrong but in instances like this, yes the PIC is ultimately responsible for the operation of the A/C. This would mean he/she is responsible to ensure proper weight/balance and that all cargo is loaded in the right place but with having a certified loadmaster on the flight, he/she is the primary responsible party for ensuring the security of the cargo. Expecting the pilots to not only be certified to fly the plane but also to be certified loadmasters is not common practice even in cargo operations.

I know we have a couple 747 loadmasters here and if you can chime in that would be great.
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PHX787
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Fri May 03, 2013 2:53 pm

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 46):
Why wouldn't it be?

Well they only had 3 744fs......Losing one could be a gigantic drawback
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windy95
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RE: National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2

Fri May 03, 2013 3:20 pm

Quoting F9animal (Reply 21):
So.... Lets say a MRAP somehow went through the pressure bulkhead, and severed hydraulics. Would severed hydraulics cause the landing gear doors to drop?

No

Quoting Alnicocunife (Reply 24):
My guess is the gear was never raised. They were most likely way too busy trying to get the plane to push over right after rotation.

That is what it looks like.

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