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Predictions On G4's Winter Hawaii Schedules

Sun May 26, 2013 4:00 pm

G4 will announce their winter schedules to Hawaii no later than the 1st week of June. Thoughts on which markets will return and those that are gone? The idea of bringing flights back for only four or five weeks seems disruptive at best.

The wide swings in traffic, less than optimum schedules, and the periodic melt-downs due to -57 reliability, might be too much of a challenge for this market to ever reach the potential they envisioned.

Frankly, the -57 is too large for most of the markets. I can speak for FAT, and the typical flight is going out off-season with about 150 - 170 passengers. Peak season, they've run full. At Christmas, with 2X a week, they were running about 71%LF. OGG would likely generate the same loads and I'd say that G4 missed an opportunity by not doing both HNL and OGG 1X, instead of doing HNL 2X week.

Seems they have a real mess on their hands with these short-term schedule adds. What comes back has a chance but I'm thinking if they don't bring a market back for Christmas, then, it's gone and not to return.

Other than a boost for BLI and LAS, any ideas as to what we may see this winter from them?
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RE: Predictions On G4's Winter Hawaii Schedules

Sun May 26, 2013 6:27 pm

This article ran a few days ago discussing G4's future Hawaii schedule. They look at the whole operation's numbers and comments from G4 execs about it.

A couple of the points the writer made that I noted:

After experiencing the realities of the US mainland-Hawaii market, Allegiant is now reassessing how its capacity is deployed. It plans to adjust capacity for peak travel times from the southern west coast to Hawaii, during the US summer period and during the winter from the Pacific northwest, which has strong demand during that time driven somewhat by Canadian passengers opting to travel from Bellingham, Spokane and Boise, said Mr Bricker.

The strategy is to create a counter-seasonal pattern between the US and Hawaii, said Mr Bricker, who stated that Allegiant believes that tactic should be effective in bolstering its Hawaiian performance.

So possibly BLI, BOI, GEG, and EUG see winter service that the other cities do not. Maybe more capacity for the southern cities like FAT, SCK, and SMX in the summer. That possibility reminds me of the old AS schedules shifting between Alaska and Mexico.

Then also

Recent remarks from Allegiant president Andrew Levy for the analysts community to "stay tuned" for which Hawaiian markets return and when also indicate that not all of the current route pairings will remain intact.

Mr Levy believes that the 757s freed up by the smaller footprint in Hawaii could effectively be deployed on mainland routes where the carrier has determined the denser aircraft could drive higher profitability on some mainland routes than the current 166-seat MD80s that comprise the bulk of Allegiant's fleet. The highest density routes Allegiant operates are from its Las Vegas and Orlando Sanford bases, according to scheduling data from Innovata, so the carrier could likely profitability operate some larger aircraft on routes from those markets without taking too much of a financial hit given the low ownership costs of its MD80s.

Interestingly, the included table indicates the 3 largest markets in May for G4 are BLI-LAS, SCK-LAS, and FAT-LAS which replicates cities with Hawaii service. The base for 757 pilots I believe is still LAS. So perhaps one 757 might shift from Hawaii flights to BLI, SCK and FAT to LAS service?
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
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RE: Predictions On G4's Winter Hawaii Schedules

Mon May 27, 2013 2:35 am

I would think ONT and BUR would have good demand to Hawaii.
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RE: Predictions On G4's Winter Hawaii Schedules

Mon May 27, 2013 8:37 pm

so does this mean that SA)">G4's Hawai'i flights will operate, at least, the SAME day as the proposed schedules? *grin*

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