nuggetsyl
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United 787-10 & A350

Tue Jun 18, 2013 3:15 pm

I am lost on the logic. Why would united order the 787-10 and a350?
 
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scbriml
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Tue Jun 18, 2013 3:21 pm

Quoting nuggetsyl (Thread starter):
Why would united order the 787-10 and a350?

Well, the rumour is that they're converting their A350-900s to -1000s (and topping up), so they'll end up with a fleet of 787-8s, -9s & -10s plus the A350s. Very nice fleet mix and gives them great flexibility to put the right plan on the right routes.
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Stitch
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Tue Jun 18, 2013 3:22 pm

Because they will serve different roles and missions.

The A350-1000 can serve as the replacement for the 747-400 on high-traffic routes.

The 787-10 can replace the two-class domestic configuration 777-200 on Hawaii routes and the three-class international configuration 777-200 on Trans-Atlantic and Trans-Pacific missions.

The 787-10 can also replace a number of the two-class and three-class international configuration 777-200ERs on Trans-Atlantic, Trans-Pacific and South America missions.

The A350-900 can replace the remainder of the two-class and three-class international configuration 777-200ERs on Trans-Atlantic and Trans-Pacific missions with long stage lengths and/or high payload weights that will challenge the 787-10.

[Edited 2013-06-18 08:22:54]
 
nuggetsyl
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Tue Jun 18, 2013 3:32 pm

Unless united is going to dump the 777, would it not be better to order the 777-x with such a large fleet already?
 
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Stitch
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Tue Jun 18, 2013 3:34 pm

Quoting nuggetsyl (Reply 3):
Unless united is going to dump the 777, would it not be better to order the 777-x with such a large fleet already?

It appears that United is going to "dump" the 777.

United appears to be modeling themselves more along the lines of European and Asian "tier one" carriers with a lower-density, more comfortable future fleet. As such, they do not need the range of the 777-8 or the capacity of the 777-9.
 
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STT757
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Tue Jun 18, 2013 3:36 pm

Quoting nuggetsyl (Reply 3):
Unless united is going to dump the 777, would it not be better to order the 777-x with such a large fleet already?

The 777s are being replaced, as are the 767s and 744s. Eventually the UA widebody fleet will consist of 787-8, 787-9, 787-10 and A350-900 and or A350-1000.

Quoting nuggetsyl (Reply 3):
would it not be better to order the 777-x

The 777-8X and 777-9X will not be available until after 2020 sometime.
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AVENSAB727
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Tue Jun 18, 2013 3:47 pm

Cant wait to see the A350 and the 787 10 myself, these look like great airplanes.
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slimshady
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Tue Jun 18, 2013 3:59 pm

I belive UA ordered both the 787 and the A350 back in 2008/2009 timeframe, before the nitty gritty details of the range/routes could be truly defined.

Seems like there was rumblings about pitting Airbus and Boeing against each other in a bidding war and UA (pre CO merger) had a huge ego (and probably still does) and would expect Airbus and Boeing to kneel before the arrogant and mighty United Airlines to get the best pricing. All bashing of the Tilton regime aside, IMHO it was foolish to have different types & manufacturers to perform somewhat similar missions. The cost to maintain and operate two types/manufacturers far outweighed the benefits. IIRC, even Gordon Bethune referenced this in a 2009 conference call.


In addtion, this topic was discussed in depth.

United Airlines To Buy Both 787 And A350 (#2) (by Diamond Dec 8 2009 in Civil Aviation)
 
fun2fly
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Tue Jun 18, 2013 4:05 pm

UA has the following to replace:

747 - 23
767 - 51
777 - 74
Total = 148 Units

Assume the 25 A350-1000's replace the 747's. So, only focus on the 125 777/767's. Then, their current order of 65 is 60 units short of a full replacement of the 767/777 fleet. Will undoubtedly be future top up orders for the 787 and possibly A359's, but certainly room in the remaining 60 units for a good size 777x fleet if needed. About 40 of the 60 units are late build CO units and have at least 10-15 years left so that explains the gap. There is some need also to replace a portion of the 41 TATL PMCO 752's at some point also.

UA will have the following options:

787-800 with 219 pax at 8200 mi.
787-900 with 259 pax (approx 40 more than 788) at 8500 mi
787-10 with 299 pax (appox 40 more than 789) at 7000 mi
A359 with 314 pax (approx from EADS website) at 8100 mi
A351 with 350 pax (appoxfrom EADS website) at 8400 mi

Sure makes the A359 unlikely - we'll find out later in the week if the rumors are true. Certainly could see a 777x for some heavy routes (FRA, NRT, HKG, etc).
 
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Tue Jun 18, 2013 4:12 pm

Do not believe the 777-9X is off the table. It is a class larger than even the A350-1000.
 
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Stitch
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Tue Jun 18, 2013 4:14 pm

Quoting slimshady (Reply 7):
All bashing of the Tilton regime aside, IMHO it was foolish to have different types & manufacturers to perform somewhat similar missions.

If that was ever really the plan.

When UA said they ordered 25 A350-900s to replace 24 747-400s, people thought they were nuts and asked why they didn't go with the more appropriate and logical A350-1000. And this week UA is expected to convert those 25 A350-900 orders into 25 A350-1000s and then convert 10 of their 50 A350 options to firm orders for A350-900s.

I am 100% convinced that when UA signed their deal with Airbus it had a conversion price and slot assignment for the A350-1000. The questions to me are how favorable were those prices and did UA expect Airbus to improve the A350-1000 beyond it's initial specification when it entered service? In other words, did UA expect the A350-1000 that entered service to be better than the one Airbus marketed at the time they signed the deal? (Airbus announced their revised A350-1000 intentions almost 18 months after United announced their intent to order.) And did they negotiate pricing that allowed them to get the better plane for the same price as the original specification?

I am also pretty confident UA knew that Boeing would launch the 787-10 and put it into revenue service before the end of the decade. So they could see how that plane panned out as a 777-200 family replacement and then either buy it, swapping the A350-900s for A350-1000s, or keep the A350-900 as the 777-200 family replacement (exercising the options they had) and look to the A350-1000, 747-8 or A380-800 as their "real" 747-400 replacement.

Then again, maybe I'm giving Tilton and Company too much credit.

But I tend to think not.
 
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Tue Jun 18, 2013 4:30 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 10):
Then again, maybe I'm giving Tilton and Company too much credit.

Stitch, my friend, I think you are. I'm not convinced that they'll up their A-350 order without Boeing offering them a sweet deal on the 779s. I could very well be wrong, but I think Boeing still has a few Aces up their proverbial sleeves.
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slimshady
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Tue Jun 18, 2013 4:34 pm

Quoting fun2fly (Reply 8):
UA will have the following options:

787-800 with 219 pax at 8200 mi.
787-900 with 259 pax (approx 40 more than 788) at 8500 mi
787-10 with 299 pax (appox 40 more than 789) at 7000 mi
A359 with 314 pax (approx from EADS website) at 8100 mi
A351 with 350 pax (appoxfrom EADS website) at 8400 mi

Sure makes the A359 unlikely - we'll find out later in the week if the rumors are true. Certainly could see a 777x for some heavy routes (FRA, NRT, HKG, etc).

747-8 with 465 pax at 8000 NM range. (IMO unlikley, but it is still technically an option)



I just LOVE playing armchair airline manager. :-P
 
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Tue Jun 18, 2013 4:53 pm

Quoting slimshady (Reply 12):
I just LOVE playing armchair airline manager. :-P

Absolutely; why do they need to pay these MBAs $100k a year, when they can get all their fleet planning answers here?  
Quoting slimshady (Reply 12):
747-8 with 465 pax at 8000 NM range. (IMO unlikley, but it is still technically an option)

But for today's KE order (about which I'm delighted!), I would have thought the 747-8 pretty much dead; however, to UA and most carriers I think it is. It won't fly for UA. The 777X, on the other hand, I think, may be a possibility.

That said, we need to look at more than just more seats; will the difference in capacity between the various types actually translate into extra revenue; if it's just Y seats sold at a discount - and the airline can't sell them at a profit, then it's probably not worth all the effort to support a new fleet, train pilots etc etc; - particularly if the 777X-9 only offers 30-40 seats. Realistically, given that it's only a small increase in size over the 77W, it's not likely to seat very many more than the A350-10. What will it deliver than the 350 can't? It won't be range, it won't be capacity and it's not going to be commonality (if it's a stand alone fleet, once the older 777s have gone).
 
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Stitch
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Tue Jun 18, 2013 4:58 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 10):
Then again, maybe I'm giving Tilton and Company too much credit.
Quoting USAF336TFS (Reply 11):
Stitch, my friend, I think you are. I'm not convinced that they'll up their A-350 order without Boeing offering them a sweet deal on the 779s.

The 777-9 only works for UA as a 747-400 replacement.

And if UA does convert their 25 A350-900s into 25 A350-1000s, if they're not going to be used to replace the 24 747-400s, then they would have to be for up-guaging 25 current 777-200ER routes. And does United have 50 daily city-pairs where they need ~350 seats?
 
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Tue Jun 18, 2013 5:05 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 2):
The A350-1000 can serve as the replacement for the 747-400 on high-traffic routes.

How is an A350-1000 a 744 replacement?
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TP313
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Tue Jun 18, 2013 5:10 pm

Quoting QANTAS747-438 (Reply 15):
How is an A350-1000 a 744 replacement?

Just ask British Airways
 
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Tue Jun 18, 2013 5:12 pm

Quoting QANTAS747-438 (Reply 15):

The same way the 77W can be considered a 744 replacement.
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Tue Jun 18, 2013 5:13 pm

Quoting QANTAS747-438 (Reply 15):
How is an A350-1000 a 744 replacement?

It's a dandy 744 replacement for an airline that is most concerned with high-yield premium travelers. Can accommodate essentially the same premium cabins while being far, far cheaper to fly. You lose a bunch of seats in the back, but UA really doesn't seem too concerned about that.
 
cv990Coronado
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Tue Jun 18, 2013 5:59 pm

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 18):
It's a dandy 744 replacement for an airline that is most concerned with high-yield premium travelers. Can accommodate essentially the same premium cabins while being far, far cheaper to fly. You lose a bunch of seats in the back, but UA really doesn't seem too concerned about that.

Exactly as BA has done and others to follow I would imagine. The last 20-30 Y class pax are very often at extremely low yields. With today high fuel costs and probably still higher ones in real terms to come it's a no-brainer.
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tortugamon
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Tue Jun 18, 2013 7:41 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 10):
If that was ever really the plan.

Well said Stitch. I have been trying to figure out why they would convert entirely to the A351 when they obviously would need at least a few A359s. The price guarantees for a swap with slot positioning and further A359 re-buy argument makes sense. In fact, if you aren't correct then I think the only other explanation is that UA does not have their act together; something I am very resistant to believe.

tortugamon
 
jayunited
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Wed Jun 19, 2013 12:20 am

Quoting slimshady (Reply 7):
Seems like there was rumblings about pitting Airbus and Boeing against each other in a bidding war and UA (pre CO merger) had a huge ego (and probably still does) and would expect Airbus and Boeing to kneel before the arrogant and mighty United Airlines to get the best pricing. All bashing of the Tilton regime aside, IMHO it was foolish to have different types & manufacturers to perform somewhat similar missions. The cost to maintain and operate two types/manufacturers far outweighed the benefits. IIRC, even Gordon Bethune referenced this in a 2009 conference call.

How is order 2 different size aircraft that are slated to serve to different purposes arrogant? UA order the 788 and the A350 to cover 2 completely different market segments and to replace to completely different aircraft the 788 pre merger were going to replace the 3 class 763 and post merger sUA order is still slated to replace the 3 class 763. The A359 were slated to replace the 744 (although it now seems like that order might change). But I still fail to see whatever useless point you were trying to make the only thing that is obvious is that you have no clue what you are talking about because the 788 and the A359 were never going to perform similar missions at United pre merger and both of these aircraft are not even the same size. The A359 will be able to accommodate a lot more people than the 788 and although UA could have order the 789, for the missions that UA would need to cover (LAX/SFO-SYD, ORD-HKG) the A359 was a better fit cargo and passenger wise.
 
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Wed Jun 19, 2013 12:20 am

Pure speculation but what if UA's plan is to upsize.

A350-1000s can initially replace the 744s until the 777-9X comes along. At that point, UA uses the A350s on routes where it wants additional growth above what the 787-10 can provide.
 
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Stitch
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Wed Jun 19, 2013 12:23 am

Quoting YTZ (Reply 22):
Pure speculation but what if UA's plan is to upsize.

As I asked in Reply 14, that would give UA 50 airplanes (25 x 777-9 and 25xA350-1000) with between 315-350 seats in three-classes (Global First, Global Business and Economy). Does UA have that many city pairs that need that level of capacity?
 
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Wed Jun 19, 2013 12:28 am

Does that mean in the long run the only Boeing models in the whole United fleet will be the 737 (NG and MAX) and the 787? Unless United orders the 777-8X and/or 9X but it doesn't look like they are interested in it.

Likewise the only Airbus model will be the A359 and A3510? Unless United orders the A320NEO.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 10):
A350-1000, 747-8 or A380-800 as their "real" 747-400 replacement.

Among the above 3, they are more likely to choose the A350-1000.

So this is what the United fleet will be like in 2025 and beyond:

B737-800/900ER/MAX
B787
A350

They are getting rid of the 757s, 767s and early 777s.
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tortugamon
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Wed Jun 19, 2013 1:21 am

Quoting American 767 (Reply 24):
They are getting rid of the 757s, 767s and early 777s.

MAXes take over for the 757
787s take over the 767
787/A350 take over for the 777/747

Makes sense to me. I do not see them as a large 777-8/9x buyer.

tortugamon
 
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Wed Jun 19, 2013 3:56 am

It will be a sad day when a Boeing airliner is no longer the flag ship of United Airlines. But I'm still optimistic that a 77X will be in United colors.

Does anyone know where the A350 crew bases will be, I imagine SFO first.
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boilerla
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Wed Jun 19, 2013 4:09 am

Quoting QANTAS747-438 (Reply 15):
How is an A350-1000 a 744 replacement?

UA's 747 config of 374 seats will be very close to the A350J seating capacity of approx. 350 seats. If UA drops international F on the A350, which is likely given the 787s are 2 class, it'll be even closer to matching the 747's capacity.

The A35J will have better range than UA's current 747s and will be significantly cheaper to operate, with approximately the same seating arrangements. How is it not a 747 replacement?

Also remember that UA's 747s are often at 70% loads during the winter. My SFO-FRA flight was probably only 50% full several times in December/Jan/Feb. When they placed the order, they said they wanted a plane they could operate at 85% LF year round without discounting the tickets.
 
tristan7977
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Wed Jun 19, 2013 4:18 am

Those former CO 777's have a long way to go. I can see the former UA 777's being replaced soon, as they are aging, I wonder what they would do to N777UA...

With the amount of planes they're ordering, it isn't enough to replace all their 767/777/747 fleet. So more A350's/777's, or even the 777X's could do. They're gonna have to order something like that eventually, or get the 747-8   

Suck though they're not gonna order an A380 anytime soon, unless something changes.   
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sweair
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Wed Jun 19, 2013 5:17 am

Everyone throws the 350 seats around, remember this is marketing numbers, like 407 is for the 777-9X. EK will put about 320 seats in their A350-1000. Look at the 9 abreast 77Ws, many have way below 350 seats in them..

374 seats in their 744(420 seats marketing). That would probably lead to below 340 seats in the A350-1000?

How many seats do the 788 have? I see some overlap in the makeup of their coming fleet, esp the 787-10 and the A359.

I could see 788,787-1000 and the A350-1000 being better spaced in capacity and range. Cut the 789 and the A359..

Say 250-260 seats 788, 290-300 for the 787-10 and 320-330 in the A350-1000? Even a 777-9 with 360-370 seats could fit that line up?

Do they need the range of the A359 and the 789 really? Cant the others sub for them?
 
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cosyr
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Wed Jun 19, 2013 5:24 am

Is it possible to put 10 across on the A350? If not, I say bring them on. I would take 787's with 9 across even if the seat is .5" narrower than 10 across on a 777. I say this, because if UA keeps the 777's more than 5 years longer (which they most definitely will) I think they will jump on the 10 across bandwagon.

I predict about the same time the first A350 would arrive. Perfect timing for the new combined airline to introduce a new, "better" unified J product. And oh by the way, we'll pay for that project by sneaking in an extra Y seat...just like AA.
 
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Stitch
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Wed Jun 19, 2013 5:44 am

Quoting cosyr (Reply 30):
Is it possible to put 10 across on the A350?

Yes, but only LCCs and charter operators (like Air Asia X) are likely to do so. I don't expect any major commercial airline (BA, UA, SQ, CX, etc.) to do so.
 
waly777
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Wed Jun 19, 2013 10:29 am

Quoting cosyr (Reply 30):
Is it possible to put 10 across on the A350? If not, I say bring them on. I would take 787's with 9 across even if the seat is .5" narrower than 10 across on a 777. I say this, because if UA keeps the 777's more than 5 years longer (which they most definitely will) I think they will jump on the 10 across bandwagon.

Here we go again with this. You do know 10 abreast 777's and 9 abreast 787's offer pretty much the same seat width @ 17"-17.3"?

A 10 abreast 350 will offer a seat width in the 16.4" region, which is only exclusive to the LCC's as Stitch pointed out.
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SonomaFlyer
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Wed Jun 19, 2013 10:39 am

I don't think its so much an issue with the width of the seat as it it having to climb over more people to reach an aisle. Since the VAST majority of folks fly economy, its an issue and one reason the 767 is so popular.

I was very impressed with the refreshed two-class 767 on our flight from IAD to GVA a few weeks ago. Seven across is awesome and the hard product is up there with most other airlines in Y.
 
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Wed Jun 19, 2013 10:50 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 2):
The A350-1000 can serve as the replacement for the 747-400 on high-traffic routes.

Not an ideal replacement as the A3510 is considerably smaller, only good if they have no intention and hope to grow.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 2):
The 787-10 can replace the two-class domestic configuration 777-200 on Hawaii routes and the three-class international configuration 777-200 on Trans-Atlantic and Trans-Pacific missions.

The 787-10 can also replace a number of the two-class and three-class international configuration 777-200ERs on Trans-Atlantic, Trans-Pacific and South America missions.

The A350-900 can replace the remainder of the two-class and three-class international configuration 777-200ERs on Trans-Atlantic and Trans-Pacific missions with long stage lengths and/or high payload weights that will challenge the 787-10.

Perfect.

Quoting CODC10 (Reply 9):
Do not believe the 777-9X is off the table. It is a class larger than even the A350-1000.

Half a class at maximum, not necessary to operate both. If the A350-1000 can replace the 744 at UA (which it cant properly imho as its half a class smaller). Perhaps A380s in the future if they want to grow and be competitive on the comfort side? If the forecasts for traffic growth are right, then UA will have no other option than to order A380s latest around 2020.
 
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Wed Jun 19, 2013 10:54 am

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 26):
It will be a sad day when a Boeing airliner is no longer the flag ship of United Airlines. But I'm still optimistic that a 77X will be in United colors.

Why do you think that would be a "sad" day?
 
cv990Coronado
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Wed Jun 19, 2013 10:56 am

Give me a 767 any day over 777 whether it's 9 or 10 abreast. Much more comfortable and quieter. In economy for me the first choice 767 then A330/340/747, last resort 777 9 abreast. 777 in 10 no thanks. Unfortunately I haven't tried the A380 yet so I can't comment personally but it does seem to get favourable reports.
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TheRedBaron
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Wed Jun 19, 2013 11:56 am

Eventually United will order the A380 the attack of Pacific rim carriers, EK, BA and LH will push them to that market with a similar product. Its matter of time. that is why fleet planning with 787 and A350 is so important now. IMHO they will have a mixed fleet.

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fun2fly
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Wed Jun 19, 2013 12:20 pm

Quoting na (Reply 34):
Not an ideal replacement as the A3510 is considerably smaller, only good if they have no intention and hope to grow.

Um, unless they add frequency which is desired by the business traveler or add additional direct service city pairs via their 8 hubs which is also desired by the business traveler.

Quoting sweair (Reply 29):
Everyone throws the 350 seats around, remember this is marketing numbers, like 407 is for the 777-9X. EK will put about 320 seats in their A350-1000. Look at the 9 abreast 77Ws, many have way below 350 seats in them..

UA's 788's = 219 seats
Figure 35-40 more for the 789 = 259 seats
Figure 35-40 more for the 781 = 299 seats

Won't be far off.

For the A359 = marketing states 314 capacity
For the A351 = marketing states 350 capacity
Both UA units will have less and be affected by the F class choice.

Therefore, UA does not have a 375 seat plane to replace the 744's. So, there is room for the 777-9x, but no mandate to buy it if they chose frequency or more direct hub service offerings.
 
FriendlySkies
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Wed Jun 19, 2013 2:34 pm

Quoting American 767 (Reply 24):
Does that mean in the long run the only Boeing models in the whole United fleet will be the 737 (NG and MAX) and the 787?

You make it sound like the future UA fleet will be 90% Airbus. The 737s and 787s will make up the fast majority of the future fleet, with ~50 or fewer A350s at the top.

And throw my hat in the ring for the A350-1000 being the 744 replacement. So what if it it has ~30 fewer seats? Those 30 seats either go out empty half the year, or are filled with rock bottom fares the rest.
 
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Stitch
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Wed Jun 19, 2013 2:39 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 2):
The A350-1000 can serve as the replacement for the 747-400 on high-traffic routes.
Quoting na (Reply 34):
Not an ideal replacement as the A3510 is considerably smaller, only good if they have no intention and hope to grow.

I expect the goal is to raise RASM by reducing capacity. With less seats to sell, Average Sale Price per seat will go up as UA will not have to deeply discount a certain percentage of seats in order to fill them.
 
SonomaFlyer
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Wed Jun 19, 2013 2:52 pm

Quoting FriendlySkies (Reply 39):
So what if it it has ~30 fewer seats? Those 30 seats either go out empty half the year, or are filled with rock bottom fares the rest.

  

UA often has to discount their seats heavily in order to fill the 744s. They aren't going to worry about buying an aircraft simply to match the 374 seat total on their current 744 aircraft.

The 350-1000 has a superior cargo carrying capacity compared to the 744:

744: 6371 cu.ft. Cargo Comparison Between 744, 773ER, & A380 (by Kaitak744 Sep 10 2008 in Tech Ops)
351: 7352 cu. ft. http://www.airbus.com/aircraftfamili...wbfamily/a350-1000/specifications/

So the 351 carries more cargo at a greater range at a lower operating cost. It will carry fewer people (closer to 40 fewer I'd think in a three class cabin) but the higher cargo capacity and lower operating cost would make it a good replacement for the 744.

I flew a 744 LHR to SFO yesterday. We got point to point on time but its noisy and the lack of amenities in Economy versus the competition was sadly lacking as we all know. UA will save huge amounts on the cost of fuel alone making the switch along with lower maintenance costs and the ability for higher utilization.

Could UA also order the 777-9X? Sure they could but I think UA is telegraphing their intent with the 781 order and what is certain to be a 351 order conversion or top-up. I don't think a small 777-9X order is in the cards. For UA to do it I think would mean an order of 20 ish.
 
Rdh3e
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Wed Jun 19, 2013 2:55 pm

Quoting slimshady (Reply 7):
The cost to maintain and operate two types/manufacturers far outweighed the benefits. IIRC, even Gordon Bethune referenced this in a 2009 conference call.

This has been show to be a myth through the comments of many a CEO. Speculating here but I recall somewhere around 20 frames is enough to get economies of scale for WB aircraft.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 10):
Then again, maybe I'm giving Tilton and Company too much credit.

Nicely put stitch.

Quoting USAF336TFS (Reply 11):
Stitch, my friend, I think you are. I'm not convinced that they'll up their A-350 order without Boeing offering them a sweet deal on the 779s. I could very well be wrong, but I think Boeing still has a few Aces up their proverbial sleeves.

You forget that the A350 Order is tied to an order of A320s that UA cancelled. The deposits are non-refundable and are huge. So if you're going to have 25, and we assume they are the capable and efficient, then why not pick up another 25?

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 20):
Well said Stitch.

I believe maybe it was a combination of the 351 originally being less capable, and UA getting what it could without having to add additional deposit money.

Quoting na (Reply 34):
Not an ideal replacement as the A3510 is considerably smaller, only good if they have no intention and hope to grow.

This down here is your answer, frequency is king. If you want to expand in a peak month in a market you just go 781+788 and that keeps you from flying around a 60% full A380 all winter as you can redeploy the second 787. Can't redeploy 0.4 A380/747, you get all or nothing. It's called risk management.

Quoting fun2fly (Reply 38):
Um, unless they add frequency which is desired by the business traveler or add additional direct service city pairs via their 8 hubs which is also desired by the business traveler.

Well said.
 
jayunited
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Wed Jun 19, 2013 3:15 pm

Quoting na (Reply 34):
Half a class at maximum, not necessary to operate both. If the A350-1000 can replace the 744 at UA (which it cant properly imho as its half a class smaller). Perhaps A380s in the future if they want to grow and be competitive on the comfort side? If the forecasts for traffic growth are right, then UA will have no other option than to order A380s latest around 2020.

The A351 can replace UA's 744 because they can cover the missions that the 744 currently fly and do is more efficiently. It isn't all about passenger capacity during the summer months other factor come into play as well.

Quoting boilerla (Reply 27):
Also remember that UA's 747s are often at 70% loads during the winter. My SFO-FRA flight was probably only 50% full several times in December/Jan/Feb. When they placed the order, they said they wanted a plane they could operate at 85% LF year round without discounting the tickets.

  

This is one of the other factors that UA has to consider. From late spring to mid fall UA has no problem filling the cabins of their 744 fleet but what happens from mid fall to late spring when you have a major drop in customers traveling and your 744 are going out at 50%-70% capacity depending on the month? It is easy to sit back and say the A351 is not the right aircraft for UA but in reality it is because for UA to achieve a load factor of 85% or higher during the slow season on the A380 UA would have to cut a lot of international flights from mid fall to late spring. In other words the only stations that would have international flights to Europe during that time would be EWR and IAD would have a limited number of flights and all flights to Asia would have to go thru SFO and EWR would probably keep the flights they currently have. ORD, IAH, LAX, DEN, SEA, HNL would all loose what international flights they have to either Europe and/or Asia because UA would have to fill gigantic A380's, I'm sorry but its not going to happen. When you operate multiple international gateways smaller is better because during the slow season you can at least achieve a good enough load factor that allows you to still make some type of money.

What and or where would UA send the A380's from November to mid April besides SYD where could we send an aircraft of that size and achieve a decent load factor without gutting our entire international schedule? Now where but A351 can work because during the high season UA would have a load factor in the 90%-98% range then during the slow season the load factor would be in the 70%-82% range due to the fact that the A351 is slightly smaller than the 744. Get the bigger picture UA will expand and is expanding internationally but the A380 does not fit into the picture it is simply to much aircraft to try and fill 12 months year after year especially during the slow season.
 
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STT757
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Wed Jun 19, 2013 4:19 pm

I'm thinking UA needs to replace the 744s ASAP, and the A350-1000 seems to be a good compromise between going with the existing technology of the 77W or 748i or waiting to 2023 or later for the 777-9X. Not that a A350-1000 order precludes an eventual 777-9X order, but the first goal has to be to modernize the passenger experience and deploy more efficient aircraft.

If they indeed convert all their A350 orders, plus exercise an option of 10 for a total of 35, to the A350-1000 that gives them the perfect platform to replace their 744s and some of the 777s mostly on Asian/Pacific routes such as:

SFO-
PEK, FRA, HKG, LHR, KIX, ICN, PVG, SYD, NRT

LAX-
SYD, MEL

ORD-
HKG, PEK, PVG, NRT

EWR-
PEK, DEL, HKG, BOM, PVG, TLV
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
yellowtail
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Wed Jun 19, 2013 5:03 pm

Quoting STT757 (Reply 44):
SFO-
PEK, FRA, HKG, LHR, KIX, ICN, PVG, SYD, NRT

LAX-
SYD, MEL

ORD-
HKG, PEK, PVG, NRT

EWR-
PEK, DEL, HKG, BOM, PVG, TLV

and
IAH-LHR, FRA, NRT, EZE, GIG, GRU
When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
 
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STT757
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Wed Jun 19, 2013 7:18 pm

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 45):
nd
IAH-LHR, FRA, NRT, EZE, GIG, GRU

I think those are better suited for the 787-10.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
AADC10
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Wed Jun 19, 2013 8:09 pm

Quoting nuggetsyl (Thread starter):
I am lost on the logic. Why would united order the 787-10 and a350?

Even though the seating capacity of the 787-10 and A350-9 are similar, the A350-9 is expected to have more range, which may come into play on some EWR, IAD, ORD and IAH to Asia routes, particularly with cargo. UA is having some weight restriction problems on their 772s on ORD-HKG (although the GE powered sCO 772s might be an improvement one of these days). Even if a city pair is within the stated range of both, the A350-9 might be able to get off the ground with a little more cargo.
 
tortugamon
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Wed Jun 19, 2013 8:45 pm

Quoting STT757 (Reply 44):
SFO-
PEK, FRA, HKG, LHR, KIX, ICN, PVG, SYD, NRT

Don't you think FRA, PEK, ICN, KIX, LHR, and NRT could be 787-10 territory as well? Not sure if the traffic would support the extra ~25 seats all year.

tortugamon
 
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STT757
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RE: United 787-10 & A350

Wed Jun 19, 2013 8:53 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 48):
Don't you think FRA, PEK, ICN, KIX, LHR, and NRT could be 787-10 territory as well? Not sure if the traffic would support the extra ~25 seats all year.

Those are all 744 destinations, UA is flying 2x daily SFO-FRA with the 744, the A350-1000 as discussed is less capacity than a 744. The 787-10 would be even less than the A350-1000.
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