UAEflyer
Topic Author
Posts: 1039
Joined: Thu Nov 02, 2006 8:29 pm

EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 5:47 am

Emirates want to put leg in one of the busiest routes in the world, US UK route, according to EK they want to fly from the northern part of the UK.

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/emira...s-uk-us-direct-flights-510527.html
 
RyanairGuru
Posts: 6554
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:59 am

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 5:51 am

This has been something of an open secret for quite some time. I wonder if anything will come of it...
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
IndianicWorld
Posts: 2806
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2001 11:32 am

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 7:19 am

They are starting MXP-JFK so I can see this as the next step in their offering.

Having tried from HAM originally and failed, it will be interesting to see how this goes.

MAN or NCL to the US would be interesting options.
 
1400mph
Posts: 1051
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2013 11:29 am

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 7:38 am

I read about this yesterday and believe it or not I actually think it's a great idea.
 
UAEflyer
Topic Author
Posts: 1039
Joined: Thu Nov 02, 2006 8:29 pm

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 7:47 am

I believe this will be a lucrative route if they started from BHX, GLA, and MAN, especially with the A380 which is an attractive aircraft for many
 
AS737MAX
Posts: 363
Joined: Sun Mar 31, 2013 1:48 am

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:00 am

Forgive me if i'm missing the point, but so these flights would be for example:
DXB-BHX-JFK
DXB-GLA-JFK
DXB-MAN-JFK
So these flights would just be added because EK has the capacity to fly them? So it's just Dubai-Under Utilized British airport-Existing United States destination? These flights seem a little odd, my opinion though.
48 Flights, 43,720 Miles Flown
 
ikramerica
Posts: 13772
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:21 am

Does EK have unlimited fifth freedom rights from the UK to the US? Once EK starts destroying the UA, AA and DL yields from hubs to smaller UK/EU airports, see how long it takes for the US to rescind Open Skies with Dubai.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
RyanairGuru
Posts: 6554
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:59 am

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:21 am

Quoting AS737MAX (Reply 5):
So these flights would just be added because EK has the capacity to fly them?



Yes and no. EK's growth IS going to be curtailed over the next 2 years due to DXB runway works.

Call me crazy, but I think that this is also about building the value proposition of Emirates (and Skywards Frequent Flyer) to draw in more traffic. Take MAN, where EK have a pretty loyal following due to little in the way of non-stop competition. My mothers' employer is a Manchester based company with significant operations in HK and PRC. Guess which airline the executives buzz around on? In paid F to boot.

If they were to launch MAN-JFK then that could help to cement them as the go-to longhaul airline in the region: one-stop to the World via DXB, plus they can also get you to the global financial hub, and beyond to the entire United States with B6.

That is quite a pretty valuable network, and could very attractive to business travellers.

This wouldn't work at LHR due to the myriad of non-stop options (in both directions) plus the fact that EK are smart enough to know that there is bats chance in hell that BA wouldn't throw everything at the City to keep the corporates locked in. That's why I think that it would only prove effective in relatively underserved markets (such as MXP and MAN)

Quoting AS737MAX (Reply 5):
So it's just Dubai-Under Utilized British airport-Existing United States destination?

Possibly, I've heard a rumor of DXB-MAN-BOS, believe it all or not. Probably nothing to it, but en-route traffic could help build the economic case for launching a new route which might not currently have sufficient demand to the Gulf and South Asia to warrant a non-stop service (don't forget that EK rarely launch a route at sub-daily frequency - in most markets they would rather not launch at all than fly 3 weekly)
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
GCT64
Posts: 1275
Joined: Sun Nov 04, 2007 6:34 pm

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:24 am

Quoting AS737MAX (Reply 5):
So these flights would just be added because EK has the capacity to fly them? So it's just Dubai-Under Utilized British airport-Existing United States destination? These flights seem a little odd, my opinion though.

EK already operates, for example, DXB-GLA. Under the aegis of operating DXB-GLA-JFK, what will actually happen is that the plane load of pax arriving in GLA from DXB will disembark, a new plane load of pax will embark and EK will, effectively, be operating a GLA-JFK flight.

If you believe in a parochial approach to air transport then you probably think this is a "bad thing" (and the flight should only be flown by US or UK airlines).

If you believe that air transport should be regarded as a business like any other, without artificial barriers, then you probably think an EK A380 from GLA to JFK is a "good thing" for consumers (and Scotland).

All depends on your perspective .....
Flown in: A30B,A306,A310,A319,A320,A321,A332,A333,A343,A346,A359,A388,BA11,BU31,B190,(..54 more types..),VC10,WESX
 
RyanairGuru
Posts: 6554
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:59 am

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:34 am

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 6):
Once EK starts destroying the UA, AA and DL yields from hubs to smaller UK/EU airports, see how long it takes for the US to rescind Open Skies with Dubai.

Sorry, not happening. There are much broader National Security implications about harming relations with the UAE than protecting Delta.

What the USA might do, however, is simply refuse them fifth freedom routes if the airlines lobby loud enough (I honestly have no idea what the relevant Open Skies bilaterals say about this)
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
oly720man
Posts: 5755
Joined: Fri May 21, 2004 7:13 am

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:35 am

Not discounting the other Northern airports.......

Historically, transatlantic flights from MAN have been predominantly leisure rather than expensive seats so it would be interesting to see if EK can generate a market there.

With flights to JFK, the only competition is an AA752 which was full the last couple of times I was on it. Whether a 77X could fill enough seats is another matter. Certainly an A380 would be wasted.

Same for EWR with a daily UA752.

Would a West coast flight work? It's one hole in the MAN list of destinations.

Any flight like this is probably not going to get many pax flying the whole route when there's more than likely a direct service to/from DXB (unless it's cheaper) and it would be an additional 2 or 3 hrs on a flight of over 12hrs (DXB-JFK, for example), so I'd expect each leg would have to be considered as an individual flight. EK are looking to go 4x day from MAN so there's no problem there. Would EK have to look at some sort of mini alliance(s) to increase connections at MAN should they go transatlantic? MAN doesn't lack connections to most of Europe which is a major benefit if they were going to have MAN as a mini-hub, for want of a better expression.
wheat and dairy can screw up your brain
 
ikramerica
Posts: 13772
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 9:06 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 9):
Sorry, not happening. There are much broader National Security implications about harming relations with the UAE than protecting Delta.

Well, Dubai Ports has had completely legal deals partially or fully blocked.

If EK starts running A380s from the UK it will impact our national carriers' ability to run their hub-to-point system, greatly harming the US market place. We are so worried about fairness when it comes to HND, Mexico and South America rights, we will be just as worried when EK starts doing to US airlines what it is doing around the world. They can't do it directly from DXB, but if you think of it like a game of RISK and they first conquer the EU and then use that stronghold to attack North America, we will respond.

We are a pretty protectionist nation when it comes down to it. In aviation like to create open sky situations when we don't think it can harm us, or it will be mutually beneficial. The Open Skies treaty with Dubai was signed with short sight, as we didn't think it could harm us, and it surely isn't mutually beneficial. The treaty vetters likely thought EK would be like another SQ, flying a few routes to the USA via waypoints to simply connect the US and the UAE financially.

SQ never really competed directly with US carriers on a large scale, and took as much traffic away from foreign airlines than domestically based ones. And PA flew to SIN with SPs so we had a direct interest in access to SQ has a destination. But EK flying GLA or HAM or MAN to New York doesn't harm foreign carriers. It directly impacts domestic carriers and would likely put some of those routes to pasture. And it has nothing to do about traffic to Dubai, as EK is flying many US routes directly to Dubai and will add more.

Canada was more far sighted when it came to EK in that respect.

[Edited 2013-07-24 02:11:50]

[Edited 2013-07-24 02:15:16]
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
avek00
Posts: 3159
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 5:56 am

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 9:24 am

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 11):
We are a pretty protectionist nation when it comes down to it.

True...and for the most part, we've managed to leverage the use of Open Skies deals to confer a protectionist benefit upon our carriers, which is what ultimately quarantines the impact of Emirates on the USA market.

United and Delta will be just fine if EK decides to flood the USA-UK market with unnneeded widebody capcity -- they have strong hubs and consumer bases to leverage, while EK will struggle in finding a sustainable traffic mix (which is what ultimately led to the demise of the JFK-HAM-DXB flight).
Live life to the fullest.
 
by738
Posts: 2444
Joined: Wed Sep 20, 2000 7:59 am

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 9:56 am

There would never be enough pax to fill an A380 from MAN to BOS never mind GLA-JFK, they can barely support year round daily on smaller aircraft. The only way would be freedom rights to pick up extra enroute but why on earth would DXB pax bound for US want a double drop when they could choose to fly direct.
 
luckyone
Posts: 2302
Joined: Thu Aug 21, 2008 1:50 pm

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:01 am

Quoting UAEflyer (Reply 4):
I believe this will be a lucrative route if they started from BHX, GLA, and MAN, especially with the A380 which is an attractive aircraft for many

They won't be able to fill it without a hub operation on either end, which will never happen because as soon as they get big enough to actually implement such a system governments will be imposing restrictions left and right.
 
Danfearn77
Posts: 557
Joined: Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:52 pm

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:41 am

MAN-JFK with EK was rumoured for a long while before the flight eventually went to MXP. As others have said EK are in a strong position at MAN and it won't be long before the evening flight is up gauged to an A380 and I suspect a 4th daily will follow at some point. This could be that 4th flight.
Eagles may soar high, but weasels dont get sucked into jet engines!
 
behramjee
Posts: 4344
Joined: Sat Aug 02, 2003 4:56 am

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:55 am

There was a UK CAA report published in 2002 that stated that EK was very keen on flying to Houston via Manchester at that time with a B777-200ER.

For UK-USA, EK should focus out of MAN and the routes that have the highest demand are as follows:

MCO 340,000 (yes i know low yielding etc etc)
NYC 210,000
LAS 87,000 (same as MCO low yielding)
LAX 45,000
SFO 40,000
ORD 40,000
MIA 35,000
BOS 31,000
PHL 25,000
IAH 15,000

BHX-USA is useless and should not even be looked at !

Now if I was in EK and given a blank cheque, the next trans-atlantic I would launch is PARIS-LOS ANGELES daily with an A380 as only AF operates this sector nonstop on a double daily basis and it can use with some much needed direct competition which EK can effectively provide with a daily A380 product. Market size CDG-LAX is 340,000 passengers with lots of high yielding premium pax ! FYI EK does have 5th freedom traffic rights between France and USA so no issues here bilaterally as well.
 
Bongodog1964
Posts: 3096
Joined: Wed Oct 18, 2006 6:29 am

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 12:02 pm

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 6):
Does EK have unlimited fifth freedom rights from the UK to the US? Once EK starts destroying the UA, AA and DL yields from hubs to smaller UK/EU airports, see how long it takes for the US to rescind Open Skies with Dubai.

If you read the original article it quickly becomes clear that EK don't hold the necessary rights

“We do hold some rights out of the regions, so I would never say never. One of the things we are keen to say to the Davies Commission [UK Airports Commission], to relieve pressure on the south-east, is why don’t we make all the regional airports completely open skies,

My assumption is that the rights they hold are the ones they presently utilise to fly directly to DXB, hence the idea of making an open skies submission to the Davies commission.

“Emirates could flood the North Atlantic with swathes of Airbus A380s and 777-300ERs out of places like Birmingham and Manchester, two cities which are bursting with pent up passenger demand, tempered only by the lack of long haul airlines operating there, particularly for Birmingham,” he said, adding that if the Dubai carrier goes through with the plan “British Airways and Virgin Atlantic will be the big losers.”

The above quote is hilarious to say the least, if there were such a pent up passenger demand BA, VS and their US counterparts have surely been missing a huge potential profit for decades, plus why did BD fail in their MAN service across the Atlantic ? Why are the US carriers sending 752's when they should have been sending 744's ? Lastly unless the pricing was predatory to the extent that passengers would be willing to travel from the South East up to MAN or BHX the big losers would be the US carriers presently on these routes, the effect on BA and VS would be minimal.
 
airbazar
Posts: 6948
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 12:44 pm

I've been saying this for a long time and some people refused to accept it. EK's business plan of connecting every 2 cities with 1 stop has big limitations and if they want to continue to grow as an airline they have no choice but to start flying 5th freedom routes. DXB may be in the center of the world but it's not in the center of the airline world because there is no such thing. Look at the biggest air markets and you quickly realize how far off DXB really is. TATL, TPAC, Asia, EU-Africa, Americas. That leaves 2 good makets only: EU-Asia/Australia, Asia-Africa.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 2010
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 12:45 pm

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 11):
We are a pretty protectionist nation when it comes down to it. In aviation like to create open sky situations when we don't think it can harm us, or it will be mutually beneficial. The Open Skies treaty with Dubai was signed with short sight, as we didn't think it could harm us, and it surely isn't mutually beneficial. The treaty vetters likely thought EK would be like another SQ, flying a few routes to the USA via waypoints to simply connect the US and the UAE financially.

It depends on whether one thinks government regulation and treaties should focus on creating restricted markets to drive monopoly profits, or to enhance consumer gains. There are lots of ways the U.S. is protectionist but it is an unquestioned leader in airline deregulation, both in domestic dereg and in pursuing Open Skies treaties.
 
gilesdavies
Posts: 2274
Joined: Tue Dec 02, 2003 7:51 pm

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 12:51 pm

How could this work, especially from a northern airport?

As Emirates have no active codeshares, to feed traffic through a US Hub, to allow passengers to fly on to other destinations in the USA, I cannot see this working...

The only reason the likes of US, UA, AA and DL make MAN work is that they can feed traffic through their respected hubs! Even UA's MAN-EWR route is heavily reliant on connecting traffic and there is not enough O&D traffic just for the NYC region. Also this route, only seems to be able to support a 757.

BA demonstrated this could not work, when they tried MAN-JFK and they could offer onward connection with AA.

So I find it farcical how people are mentioning they could operate see an A380 operating between MAN and the USA!

I still don't really see a market, but MAN has been crying out for a link to the West Coast of the USA... Emirates have also been keen to operate the A380 on their DXB-LAX route, but I think it struggles range wise, so just maybe MAN could be used as a Technical stop on the route to refuel and maybe they could offer 10-20% of the seats of the route for passengers wishing to fly MAN-LAX... This would also offer a small amount of additionaal capacity for passengers flying MAN-DXB, while not really stepping on the toes of the other three flights a day EK fly to MAN and would also reduce the need of upgrading another one of the exisiting 77W flights on the route to an A380 for the next year or two.
 
BlueShamu330s
Posts: 2565
Joined: Sun Sep 23, 2001 3:11 am

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 12:54 pm

Quote:
Aviation analyst Saj Ahmad, chief analyst at StrategicAero Research, said there is still obvious demand in the market for Emirates to capitalise on.
Quote:
“Emirates could flood the North Atlantic with swathes of Airbus A380s and 777-300ERs out of places like Birmingham and Manchester, two cities which are bursting with pent up passenger demand, tempered only by the lack of long haul airlines operating there, particularly for Birmingham,” he said, adding that if the Dubai carrier goes through with the plan “British Airways and Virgin Atlantic will be the big losers.”

So says Saj Ahmad, the self proclaimed Chief analyst,,,LOL, make that the only analyst at StrategicAero Research. Who is StrategicAero Research ? A pompous name from behind which he spouts out his own personal opinion and tries to cloak it in legitimacy

No listed company, no financial accounts, he's a self proclaimed consultant who in reality is simply a serial blogger.

http://sajahmadfactcheck.blogspot.co.uk/p/who-is-saj-ahmad.html

Only the foolish follow his progress.
So I drive a 4x4. So what?! Tax the a$$ off me for it...oh, you already have... :-(
 
gkirk
Posts: 23347
Joined: Thu Jun 15, 2000 3:29 am

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 12:55 pm

Quoting gilesdavies (Reply 20):
BA demonstrated this could not work, when they tried MAN-JFK and they could offer onward connection with AA.

EK can offer onward connections with JetBlue in the US, and links with FlyBe at the MAN end
When you hear the noise of the Tartan Army Boys, we'll be coming down the road!
 
by738
Posts: 2444
Joined: Wed Sep 20, 2000 7:59 am

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 1:30 pm

Quoting blueshamu330s (Reply 21):
Only the foolish follow his progress

A real dislike. Seems a little harsh...
 
BlueShamu330s
Posts: 2565
Joined: Sun Sep 23, 2001 3:11 am

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 1:36 pm

Quoting by738 (Reply 23):
A real dislike. Seems a little harsh...

Because he wraps himself in supposed legitimacy with a string of fancy sounding analytical companies, none of which are registered, none of which produce accounts, and none of which stand up to scrutiny.

Blogspot is quite revealing if you take time to read through the links and read Mr Ahmad's blogs and articles.

It's not the person I dislike, it's the lack of legitimacy, objectivity and authenticity.

Rgds
So I drive a 4x4. So what?! Tax the a$$ off me for it...oh, you already have... :-(
 
ytz
Posts: 3036
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2009 12:31 am

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 2:07 pm

I wouldn't discount the cargo dimension. So much more efficient to airlift cargo with one-stop to the US, not to mention being able to carry even more from MAN or GLA.

I would rule out the East Coast. Too much competition. If EK does this, it'll be to the West Coast imho.
 
airbazar
Posts: 6948
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 2:27 pm

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 19):
There are lots of ways the U.S. is protectionist but it is an unquestioned leader in airline deregulation, both in domestic dereg and in pursuing Open Skies treaties.

I disagree. The U.S. WAS an unquestioned leader but it no longer is. As pointed out above, it lead the way when it was the unquestionable economic superpower and its airlines rulled the skies the world over. Who would have thought back in the 80's that PanAm and TWA wouldn't be leading world carriers for years to come? That was the environment in which the U.S once was the unquestionable leader in airline deregulation. I don't believe for a second that in today's environment the U.S. government would follow the same steps.
 
s4popo
Posts: 160
Joined: Thu Nov 06, 2008 3:36 am

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 2:29 pm

Could this be used to ease EK in the MIA market. I know there's been plenty of rumors over the last few years about DXB-MIA, but there might be less risk launching DXB-MAN-MIA first. Just a thought.
 
SR 103
Posts: 1618
Joined: Sun Oct 01, 2000 6:19 am

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 4:10 pm

Quoting behramjee (Reply 16):
as only AF operates this sector nonstop on a double daily basis and it can use with some much needed direct competition

Actually Air Tahiti Nui flies the route as well, so AF is not the only non stop airline.

Quoting behramjee (Reply 16):
Market size CDG-LAX is 340,000 passengers with lots of high yielding premium pax !

There are plenty of hubs between LAX and CDG that cater to the market just fine. I think if you take the time to understand the US market rather than just look at MIDT data, you might be able to figure out why things are the way they are. UA and AA have tried this route in the past.

Quoting behramjee (Reply 16):
FYI EK does have 5th freedom traffic rights between France and USA so no issues here bilaterally as well.
CDG is not as open to EK as you may think. Good luck to you if you think its that simple!

[Edited 2013-07-24 09:13:12]
 
User avatar
Qatara340
Posts: 1567
Joined: Mon May 29, 2006 2:07 am

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 4:32 pm

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 6):


Does EK have unlimited fifth freedom rights from the UK to the US? Once EK starts destroying the UA, AA and DL yields from hubs to smaller UK/EU airports, see how long it takes for the US to rescind Open Skies with Dubai.

The bilateral relationship between UAE and USA is more powerful than EK flying to the US from England. US will not rescind Open Skies simply because of inreased competion; otherwise it would have rescinded Open Skies with the EU a long time ago.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 9):
Sorry, not happening. There are much broader National Security implications about harming relations with the UAE than protecting Delta.

+1

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 11):
Well, Dubai Ports has had completely legal deals partially or fully blocked.

The reason is the Zionist lobby in the US behind this blockage.
لا اله الا الله محمد رسول الله
 
AeroWesty
Posts: 19551
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 7:37 am

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 4:58 pm

Quoting UAEflyer (Thread starter):
Emirates want to put leg in one of the busiest routes in the world, US UK route, according to EK they want to fly from the northern part of the UK.

Flying out of Heathrow may become an option:

Competition For PHL-LHR With Merger (by cjpmaestro Jul 24 2013 in Civil Aviation)

Quoting QatarA340 (Reply 29):
Quoting ikramerica (Reply 11):
Well, Dubai Ports has had completely legal deals partially or fully blocked.

The reason is the Zionist lobby in the US behind this blockage.

I reject that reasoning. Nearly all foreign investment in the US is looked at by way of the harm it could do to national security. For example, a Chinese company is attempting to buy the largest pork processor in the US right now. The deal is hung up on whether foreign control over an essential part of the food supply could disrupt the economy and the military. Zionists have nothing to do with it, but the deal is receiving the same scrutiny that the Dubai Ports deal did, just not the same amount of publicity.
International Homo of Mystery
 
Danfearn77
Posts: 557
Joined: Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:52 pm

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 5:12 pm

Quoting gilesdavies (Reply 20):

MAN-EWR sees a very large percentage of terminating NYC pax. MAN-IAD however is a different story with only a handful of pax terminating in IAD.
Eagles may soar high, but weasels dont get sucked into jet engines!
 
Flighty
Posts: 7718
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2007 3:07 am

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 5:15 pm

There could be an A380 from EDI to BTV to carry gnomes between those hilly and chilly regions. With Emirates, it's hard to say really.  
 
behramjee
Posts: 4344
Joined: Sat Aug 02, 2003 4:56 am

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 5:58 pm

Quoting SR 103 (Reply 28):
Actually Air Tahiti Nui flies the route as well, so AF is not the only non stop airline.

yes you are right, I totally forgot about that.

Quoting SR 103 (Reply 28):
There are plenty of hubs between LAX and CDG that cater to the market just fine. I think if you take the time to understand the US market rather than just look at MIDT data, you might be able to figure out why things are the way they are. UA and AA have tried this route in the past.

Stats are not from MIDT but rather MarketIS and SSMM and from this figure of 340,000 it reads as follows in terms of market share:

AF 51%
TN 17%

So in essence 68% of the market flies nonstop and not one stop hence a clear indication of what the market prefers. The airline with the biggest one stop market share is BA followed by US Airways who each have only 2% market share only each respectively. Yes AA and UA did try this route in the past and did not seem to fare well but EK's ability to market and sell a product is world class especially since the main focus here (for EK) is primarily O&D traffic and not transfer.

Now what is interesting to also note that out of the 51% of the AF traffic uplifted (173,000) on the CDG route i.e. 52% (90,000) has CDG as the final destination followed by domestic France which stands at 16% and the rest is transfer traffic bound to EU/Africa/MENA.
 
ojas
Posts: 1119
Joined: Mon Mar 10, 2008 10:23 am

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 6:09 pm

Thanks for the numbers behramjee.

While I'm no expert here, but I feel if UA and AA cannot make it work ... It will be a challenge for EK to get good yielding traffic. From what I understand FF loyalty plays a HUGE role for long distance travel; and if star alliance and one world failed to capitalise on CDG LAX ... I would really curious to know how will EK manage that without major undercutting of fares.
Great leaders don't tell you what to do ... they show you how it's done!
 
BD338
Posts: 576
Joined: Sun Jul 04, 2010 3:00 am

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 6:23 pm

Looking at the wider picture here, what I believe EK are saying is, when the Davies Commission looks at airport capacity and needs for the UK it should consider that the regions if properly allowed and developed could help relieve the South East pressures by allowing more passengers to fly from a regional airport than say, LHR. In effect EK are saying the same thing as MAN and BHX have been suggesting and promoting. They can be part of the answer, it isn't all necessarily about LHR.

BHX acknowledges it loses a tremendous amount of business to LHR. "high prices" are often the quoted reason but that is down to the airlines. I wonder how much airlines operating out of BHX/MAN etc. and LHR increase the regional price just to make the LHR price look attractive so they can fill the capacity they've pushed into LHR as it is seen as "the place to be"? I wonder if the price to EWR from BHX was the same price as LHR-EWR if UA would fill a larger aircraft out of BHX...but what would the flight out of LHR then look like? In essence, how much of this capacity crush in the S.E UK is been caused by airlines offering a price differential sufficient to tempt customers to LHR from outside the region, even to the detriment of their own operations in the regions?

EK are saying, instead of a passenger traveling from NCL to LHR to fly to JFK they are offering to fly them direct to JFK, all without impacting their LHR business, as their business goes East out of LHR.
 
2travel2know2
Posts: 2316
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 3:01 pm

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 6:23 pm

The days for a possible EK DXB-STN-JFK have arrived.
Also seems BRS catchment area wants an EK flight but due to BRS runway, that flight could operate DXB-CWL-JFK and kill 2 birds with one shot since that same area would be getting its NYC flight back as UA doesn't seem keen to re-start EWR-BRS or start EWR-CWL, not even as a seasonal service.
I'm not on CM's payroll.
 
Burkhard
Posts: 1916
Joined: Fri Nov 17, 2006 9:34 pm

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 6:35 pm

If the Brits and Americans accept this, they should first make the Emir of Dubai their head of state and accept their role as rightless slaves in a brutal medieval tyranny.
 
behramjee
Posts: 4344
Joined: Sat Aug 02, 2003 4:56 am

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 6:55 pm

Quoting ojas (Reply 34):
Thanks for the numbers behramjee.

While I'm no expert here, but I feel if UA and AA cannot make it work ... It will be a challenge for EK to get good yielding traffic. From what I understand FF loyalty plays a HUGE role for long distance travel; and if star alliance and one world failed to capitalise on CDG LAX ... I would really curious to know how will EK manage that without major undercutting of fares.

EK's premium product and ability to market it will go a long way to making it work in the long run. If this is the logic, then EK would struggle on MXP-NYC too right? due to Sky Team (AZ/DL), UA and AA all operating daily nonstops to JFK/EWR respectively. But EK are willing to take them on a route that sees less demand but much more nonstop competition.

Now with regards to fares, the average r/t fare charged by airlines on this route (combining J/Y classes), it is as follows (includes YQ):

AF $ 1900
TN $ 1050 (this means they are not attracting many premium paying pax)
BA $ 1650
US $ 1200
DL $ 960
AA $ 1100
UA $ 1050

Now what EK needs to only do is charge initially somewhere in between TN and AF in its first year of service and then once the product + service awareness is there, they only need to be 20% cheaper than AF on average. Also Skywards is a powerful FFP with Jetblue part of. So even if you are a B6 FFP member, you can earn miles on EK + just like on MXP-JFK, B6 too would definitely want to code share on LAX-CDG to provide what ever incremental feed it can from LA based FFP member residents. Initially, EK's main target is to poach away the TN pax and many of the 1 stop carrier ones and then slowly but gradually attack AF's market share which would lose a little bit (not a lot but a little bit) with an EK A380 operated daily here.

FYI out of the 340,000 pax on this route, 30,000 flew J class of which 85% market share AF controls where as on MXP-JFK, 38,000 flew of which 78% flew on the nonstop carriers !

Notice how successful EK has been on another major 5th freedom route which sees much higher demand and more competition such as BKK-SYD (competing with TG BA QF multiple daily nonstops combined).
 
ikramerica
Posts: 13772
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 7:03 pm

Quoting QatarA340 (Reply 29):

Not true re: the EU. There is little competition between US and EU carriers, actually. Between alliances, code shares, ATI, etc. it's more a matter of US/EU partnership A vs. partnership B vs. partnership C.

And other than major market to major market, the EU carriers complement the US carriers. For example, AF only flies to the US from CDG but to many cities. US airlines will fly to other French cities but not as many flights to CDG from US cities. Same goes for BA and the UK.

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 19):

I'm not advocating. It's not a matter of "if you think" or "I" think it should. It's the government. And usually they can be swayed with lobbyist dollars. Thing is, there would be only EK lobbyist money pro EK doing this, and lots of lobbyist money against it. If the US government can pressure the UK to be the "bad guy" we will do it that way. But if push comes to shove some restrictions will go into place from our side of the Atlantic.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
User avatar
Qatara340
Posts: 1567
Joined: Mon May 29, 2006 2:07 am

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 7:13 pm

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 39):
Not true re: the EU. There is little competition between US and EU carriers, actually. Between alliances, code shares, ATI, etc. it's more a matter of US/EU partnership A vs. partnership B vs. partnership C.

And other than major market to major market, the EU carriers complement the US carriers. For example, AF only flies to the US from CDG but to many cities. US airlines will fly to other French cities but not as many flights to CDG from US cities. Same goes for BA and the UK.

I understand what you mean. But, in the US you have the option of using way more airlines from Europe or US airlines to go from any point in the US to any point in EU. For example you can fly from Little Rock to Toulouse, either by American Airlines (via a point in US and EU) or British Airways (via some other airline), ect...

EK will just be another option. It already has codeshares with Jetblue and can also an addition to the open market. Afterall, this is what capitalism is all about.
لا اله الا الله محمد رسول الله
 
avek00
Posts: 3159
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 5:56 am

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 7:56 pm

Quoting behramjee (Reply 38):
EK's premium product and ability to market it will go a long way to making it work in the long run. If this is the logic, then EK would struggle on MXP-NYC too right?

EK faltered on NYC-HAM in the wake of a competitor that had a hub on one end of the flight. They're free to try other routes if they have the authorities, but the days of non-US/EU carriers having anything more than a trivial max 1 or 2 flights day between the US and EU are over.

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 39):
There is little competition between US and EU carriers, actually. Between alliances, code shares, ATI, etc. it's more a matter of US/EU partnership A vs. partnership B vs. partnership C.

And other than major market to major market, the EU carriers complement the US carriers. For example, AF only flies to the US from CDG but to many cities. US airlines will fly to other French cities but not as many flights to CDG from US cities. Same goes for BA and the UK.

Indeed, the US and EU authorities are to be commended for the skillful joint use of Open Skies and antitrust immunity to establish a framework that at once encourages vigorous competition by US and EU carriers while strongly protecting the North Atlantic market from "third country" interlopers.
Live life to the fullest.
 
avek00
Posts: 3159
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 5:56 am

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:02 pm

Quoting gkirk (Reply 22):
EK can offer onward connections with JetBlue in the US

Small potatoes compared to the formidable machines the immunized alliances have built.

Quoting behramjee (Reply 38):
Also Skywards is a powerful FFP with Jetblue part of.

Skywards is an afterthought, at best, in the USA and France...and would be even less relevant in supporting what would essentially be the only flight sector of its kind for Emirates.
Live life to the fullest.
 
behramjee
Posts: 4344
Joined: Sat Aug 02, 2003 4:56 am

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:13 pm

Quoting avek00 (Reply 41):
EK faltered on NYC-HAM in the wake of a competitor that had a hub on one end of the flight. They're free to try other routes if they have the authorities, but the days of non-US/EU carriers having anything more than a trivial max 1 or 2 flights day between the US and EU are over.

HAM-NYC market size demand per year cannot be compared to CDG-LAX at all. Also EK used an in-efficient aircraft on this route i.e. the A345 which didnt help much the performance economics + at that time "its" market demographic had not been adequately established to warrant a 3rd daily service so fast. FYI over the past one year, the HAM-NYC market size demand was only 90,000 passengers versus 340,000 on CDG-LAX !

At LAX, EK currently only has 1 daily nonstop flight which is being upgraded soon from a B77W to an A380. Eventually down the road it will reinstate the double daily service (hopefully nonstop but if not nonstop then via CDG according to me is the best option available versus any other EU route)
 
jayunited
Posts: 1275
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 9:01 pm

EK feels like they can make (lets just say) JFK-GLA and/or JFK-MAN work year around with either a 773er or an A380. So my question is why is it that the airlines who are already flying these routes (or EWR-GLA, MAN) struggle to fill much smaller planes during the off season? What is EK's plan during the winter months when demand on US to UK routes drops. EK's VP is saying a lot in the article I just don't see this working out year around because the demand is not there during the slow season and with 2 nonstops already to DXB from JFK plus a direct flight via MXP there is no need for them to offer JFK-MAN-DXB and a JFK-GLA-DXB routing because then EK would just be cannibalizing themselves.

Can I see this plan working during the peak travel season yes I can but once it's over EK would have a lot of capacity and no a lot of passengers to fill up that capacity. And make no mistake BA, VS, AA, DL , UA, US will use every tactic at their disposal to stop EK from destroying their market share on US to UK routes.
 
ElPistolero
Posts: 1140
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 12:44 am

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 10:03 pm

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 6):
Once EK starts destroying the UA, AA and DL yields from hubs to smaller UK/EU airports, see how long it takes for the US to rescind Open Skies with Dubai.

Think you're underestimating brand loyalty in the US. Americans (make that North Americans) aren't known for being the most well-informed people in the world, let alone about airlines. Between the relatively strong FF offerings and the lack of EK brand strength, I don't think the masses will rush over to EK in droves. Most of them will stick to their home airlines - the ones they use most for domestic travel.

If they didn't, the EU carriers would have trounced US carriers by now .

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 7):
Yes and no. EK's growth IS going to be curtailed over the next 2 years due to DXB runway works.

Indeed. If they can't land as many aircraft at their own airport, they might as well send them all over the place.

Quoting GCT64 (Reply 8):
If you believe in a parochial approach to air transport then you probably think this is a "bad thing" (and the flight should only be flown by US or UK airlines).

If you believe that air transport should be regarded as a business like any other, without artificial barriers, then you probably think an EK A380 from GLA to JFK is a "good thing" for consumers (and Scotland).

Amen.

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 11):
Well, Dubai Ports has had completely legal deals partially or fully blocked.

Dubai Ports fell apart because of a lot of high profile political opposition, and a semblance of public opposition. I doubt EK will inspire that kind of political or public opposition, but what do I know. You may be right, but only if this issue galvanizes folk as much as Dubai Ports World did. Personally, I don't think it'll gain any traction because this isn't about foreign ownership; its about one more airline.

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 11):
If EK starts running A380s from the UK it will impact our national carriers' ability to run their hub-to-point system, greatly harming the US market place.

Unless EK duplicates every route (I doubt it will), this isn't going to happen. A couple of airlines may lose a couple of routes, but this whole "greatly harming the US market place" piece is highly unlikely. Dropping a couple of 757 routes is not going to kill any airline.

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 11):
In aviation like to create open sky situations when we don't think it can harm us, or it will be mutually beneficial.
Quoting ikramerica (Reply 11):
to create open sky situations when we don't think it can harm us, or it will be mutually beneficial. The Open Skies treaty with Dubai was signed with short sight, as we didn't think it could harm us, and it surely isn't mutually beneficial.

Who is "us"? Is it US airlines? Is it Americans? The chink in your armour is a very visible one - Walmart. Has it harmed "you" (I m not American, so I can't say 'us')? Does it benefit "you"? The jury is either still out on it, or in favor of it, or else "Made in PRC" would be a novelty in the US. But its not,

Given a.net's aviation obsession, there is a tendency to believe that the airline is the be all and end all, and whats good for the airline must be good for the country. But is that the always the case? Some aviation policies focus on both the supplier and the consumer; some focus only on the supplier. Be careful what you wish for. As a consumer, the value-for-money proposition is paramount - hence the proliferation of cheap Chinese goods in the US, regardless of the consequence for X and Y American company. Government restrictions simply to protect one set of companies/ limit consumer choice in the US? I don't know about that - can't even ban health-damaging sugary drinks without starting some deep soul searching.

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 11):
SQ never really competed directly with US carriers on a large scale, and took as much traffic away from foreign airlines than domestically based ones.
Quoting ikramerica (Reply 11):
But EK flying GLA or HAM or MAN to New York doesn't harm foreign carriers.

Very revealing posts.

1. First, there is the assumption that EK will enter each and every route (it wont - between slot restrictions and competition, it won't survive on the vast majority of them).
2. EK flying GLA, HAM or MAN to NYC won't affect the foreign carriers? Why not? I can only assume its because only US carriers fly those routes, in which case, what's wrong with injecting some competition? Is this just about maintaining some monopolies for US carriers? I don't know how anyone can argue that a monopoly on any route is good for everyone in both countries.

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 11):
It directly impacts domestic carriers and would likely put some of those routes to pasture.

If they require monopolistic conditions and can't handle one other competitor on the route, they're not doing a very good job of serving the people on either side of that route, are they? Its a good illustration of the misgivings I have about your conception of "us". You're only talking about the airlines. What about consumers (ie the majority of people affected)?

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 37):
If the Brits and Americans accept this, they should first make the Emir of Dubai their head of state and accept their role as rightless slaves in a brutal medieval tyranny.

What would a thread about EK be without a typically pointless LH post.

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 39):
There is little competition between US and EU carriers, actually. Between alliances, code shares, ATI, etc. it's more a matter of US/EU partnership A vs. partnership B vs. partnership C.

If its A v B v C, then what difference does it make if you add D. D still has to compete with A, B and C. Its just one more airline.

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 39):
Thing is, there would be only EK lobbyist money pro EK doing this, and lots of lobbyist money against it.

I don't recall too many US carriers being flush with cash.

Quoting avek00 (Reply 41):
Indeed, the US and EU authorities are to be commended for the skillful joint use of Open Skies and antitrust immunity to establish a framework that at once encourages vigorous competition by US and EU carriers while strongly protecting the North Atlantic market from "third country" interlopers.

How the world has changed eh. There was once a time when all the "third country" interlopers came from the US and EU. Now, they're being pushed aside by carriers from the very regions they ...errr..'interloped 'in not too long ago. Which makes it unacceptable, of course.

The moralizing around here is hilarious.
 
MaverickM11
Posts: 15324
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 1:59 pm

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 10:31 pm

This is a terrible idea, and mildly concerning if this and JFKMXP are their next best strategy when they still have loads of 380s coming. Loads of seats, no flow, no corporate contracts. It's a nonstarter.

Quoting blueshamu330s (Reply 21):
“Emirates could flood the North Atlantic with swathes of Airbus A380s and 777-300ERs out of places like Birmingham and Manchester, two cities which are bursting with pent up passenger demand,

Pent up demand from BHX and MAN    So much demand US dropped BHX

Quoting gkirk (Reply 22):

EK can offer onward connections with JetBlue in the US, and links with FlyBe at the MAN end

At dreadful fares.
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
Viscount724
Posts: 19048
Joined: Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:32 pm

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 10:48 pm

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 6):
Does EK have unlimited fifth freedom rights from the UK to the US?

US-UAE is Open Skies so they have unlimited 5th freedom rights between the USA and anywhere in the world, subject only to having the same rights from the 3rd country involved. I think UK-UAE is also basically an Open Skies bilateral (as are many other Europe-UAE bilaterals).

[Edited 2013-07-24 15:49:39]
 
User avatar
adamh8297
Posts: 2156
Joined: Sat Dec 15, 2012 6:28 pm

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 10:49 pm

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 46):
At dreadful fares.

Dreadful for the consumer or the airline's bean counters?
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AM, BA, B6, CO, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WN
 
SonomaFlyer
Posts: 1879
Joined: Tue Apr 20, 2010 2:47 pm

RE: EK Eyes UK US Routes

Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:20 pm

EK would hardly be making these proposals if they haven't run the numbers, considered their strategy and decided they'd make money on the routes. Its doubtful they'd run via JFK or EWR given slot restrictions.

EK would most likely look to cities with a strong demand for UK service that were also candidates for double dailies such as LAX, SFO and possibly IAH or DFW.

I'm not saying it isn't risky but there are lots of folks who fly to the UK who'd be very happy to give LHR a miss including me. If I were able to fly into BHX or STN from SFO instead, I'd do it in a flash.