DTWPurserBoy
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So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Wed Jul 31, 2013 6:32 pm

It has been much discussed on a.net that DL would shortly make a wide-body order so they can grow the international markets. What type or mix of types will it be?

I could see a small order (even used) of 77E or 77R's along with a 333 increase. New 77W's are so expensive and DL has repeatedly said it is trying to pay down long-term debt so I find it difficult to believe that they would spend that much for a new aircraft order even though it would make nice fit for those routes that need additional capacity.

Thoughts?
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Wed Jul 31, 2013 6:39 pm

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Thread starter):
It has been much discussed on a.net that DL would shortly make a wide-body order so they can grow the international markets. What type or mix of types will it be?

I could see a small order (even used) of 77E or 77R's along with a 333 increase. New 77W's are so expensive and DL has repeatedly said it is trying to pay down long-term debt so I find it difficult to believe that they would spend that much for a new aircraft order even though it would make nice fit for those routes that need additional capacity.


I believe the order will be for 1 777LR and 10-12 A330's along with 30 or so A321's
 
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Wed Jul 31, 2013 6:41 pm

Quoting bobnwa (Reply 1):
10-12 A330's

What is the reasoning for going with A330's over 767s? Are they cheaper to operate?
 
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Wed Jul 31, 2013 6:56 pm

Quoting jporterfi (Reply 2):
What is the reasoning for going with A330's over 767s? Are they cheaper to operate?

Based on what I've read on a.net...generally, the costs for running 330s and 767s are similar. But the A330 wins because it can carry more passengers, carry more cargo, and fly further (at least the 332). So the 330s top the 767s on the revenue side of the equation.
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Wed Jul 31, 2013 7:24 pm

777-200LRs and A330-300s make sense to me. That would give them excellent capacity and capability across all A, B and C market missions (less than 7000km to more than 15,000km).
 
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Wed Jul 31, 2013 7:29 pm

The 767 is over 30 years old--I don't see much of a market for them as new passenger aircraft--freighters, perhaps, but there are a lot of used 76's out there waiting to be converted. They will continue to be built as tanker replacements for the USAF KC-135 fleet.
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Wed Jul 31, 2013 7:36 pm

Quoting bobnwa (Reply 1):
I believe the order will be for 1 777LR and 10-12 A330's along with 30 or so A321's

The A321 rumors were started due to lines for them painted at the ramps at ATL, and they have already been removed. The painting was outsourced to a contractor, and were painted in error (or possibly as a prank). Fact is, DL has no need for the A321 since they have already ordered 100 739ERs.

I actually wouldn't be surprised if DL is the launch customer for the 777X.

[Edited 2013-07-31 12:42:05]
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Wed Jul 31, 2013 7:37 pm

My crystal ball says 777/A330/A321.
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Wed Jul 31, 2013 7:42 pm

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 6):
I actually wouldn't be surprised if DL is the launch customer for the 777X.

But DL said not wanting to buy new generation aircraft. So that leaves the current 777 and A330 as available options.
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Wed Jul 31, 2013 7:44 pm

how about finally retiring those NW 747-400s ??
 
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Wed Jul 31, 2013 7:45 pm

The A321 is basically a B757--it would be redundant. It also does not have sufficient international range.

I see some gently used 77E or 77L's (or maybe a couple of new ones that were cancelled orders from other carriers that could be obtained at a good price) as well as some A330's.
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Wed Jul 31, 2013 7:46 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 8):
But DL said not wanting to buy new generation aircraft. So that leaves the current 777 and A330 as available options.

However, Boeing is probably looking for a U.S. customer for the 777X. UA is now likely out of the question since they ordered the A350-1000, and the combined AA/US will likely favor Airbus aircraft due to US Airways management being in charge of the combined company, therefore DL is the most likely U.S. customer that Boeing probably envisions for a 777X order.
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Wed Jul 31, 2013 7:55 pm

Interesting discussion. I feel though to really understand what aircraft DL will be looking at you must look at how they will be used.

I think DL would like to upguage some 767 routes to 333s in Europe and South America. I also think that DLs big growth will come from Asia by over flying NRT. They have started this already in SEA and I think it will continue in other markets. There are a fair number of opportunities I think to Asia from LAX, DTW, and JFK that DL will want something with some legs to operate so we are looking at something with at least the performance of a 77E.

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Thread starter):
I could see a small order (even used) of 77E or 77R's along with a 333 increase. New 77W's are so expensive and DL has repeatedly said it is trying to pay down long-term debt so I find it difficult to believe that they would spend that much for a new aircraft order even though it would make nice fit for those routes that need additional capacity.

I think the A330 is a sure thing. Almost gurranteed.

I wouldn't however rule out the 77W. If Delta is really going to buy new, then the 77L doesn't cost that much less than the W and the 77W carries far more. I believe it has been said that the 77L and 77W have very similar operating costs. Now Delta needs the 77L for a few routes, but most of the new routes that Delta is looking at or even most of their current routes don't need the 77L and would sufice with a 77W on performance.

On another note, I think people kind of over look with DL is that their operations in LAX and SEA and even to an extent JFK, do not have a tone of space to grow in the area of frequency. Now I am not saying the airport couldn't handle more flights, I am saying that DL's terminals in those airports are nearing capacity. For example, it has been easier for DL to upguage SEA-NRT than it is for them to go double daily.

Now that assumes DL is buying new. I however kind of think DL will look at used 77Es. This is more inline with their plans and once again, the 77E has more than enough performance to handle most of their new routes and replacing capacity on current ones.
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Wed Jul 31, 2013 8:08 pm

Quoting mpdpilot (Reply 12):
the 77E has more than enough performance to handle most of their new routes and replacing capacity on current ones.

The 77L has better economics beyond 2knm.

I see them doing a mix order of 77Ls and A330s and taking a very hard at EKs retiring 77Ws come 2017-2020.

I do not see them in the market for the 77X anytime soon as it goes completely against everything they have said and done in the last 5 years and have indicated they will be doing in the future. Other than that, maybe  

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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Wed Jul 31, 2013 8:08 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 4):

777-200LRs and A330-300s make sense to me. That would give them excellent capacity and capability across all A, B and C market missions (less than 7000km to more than 15,000km).

  

Quoting alitalia744 (Reply 7):
My crystal ball says 777/A330/A321.

Agreed!

Quoting a380787 (Reply 9):
how about finally retiring those NW 747-400s ??

Not for a while. Don't forget that they just invested quite a bit upgrading interiors on those 744s.
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Wed Jul 31, 2013 8:10 pm

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 11):
However, Boeing is probably looking for a U.S. customer for the 777X.

To be honest, I think Boeing is more focusing on the Gulf carriers for the 777X launch.

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 11):
therefore DL is the most likely U.S. customer that Boeing probably envisions for a 777X order.

Perhaps, but the question is what DL wants and not what Boeing wants.
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Wed Jul 31, 2013 8:11 pm

I do wonder if the rumored 330 order comes to fruition, will DL stick with Pratt or will they possibly go RR? It's definitely not out of the question, after all US did that when they ordered the 332s.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 14):
The 77L has better economics beyond 2knm.

And the 333 also has better economics (but obviously less range), so no real sense purchasing 77Es for Europe/South America when the 333 can do the job.
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Wed Jul 31, 2013 8:13 pm

Quoting OA412 (Reply 16):
I do wonder if the rumored 330 order comes to fruition, will DL stick with Pratt or will they possibly go RR? It's definitely not out of the question, after all US did that when they ordered the 332s.

Should DL order more A330s, it would probably be either Pratt or GE, for parts commonality with the existing A330 and 767 fleets.

[Edited 2013-07-31 13:15:39]
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Wed Jul 31, 2013 8:29 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 9):
how about finally retiring those NW 747-400s ??

Heaven forbid. They just invested in major upgrades.
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Wed Jul 31, 2013 8:29 pm

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 17):
Should DL order more A330s, it would probably be either Pratt or GE, for parts commonality with the existing A330 and 767 fleets.

Not sure how much commonality there is between a CF6-80E1 and C2, probably as much as between a Trent 800 and a 700!. Besides most airlines these days are paying by the hour for the engines.
 
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Wed Jul 31, 2013 8:31 pm

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Thread starter):
What type or mix of types will it be?

There are some hints given in the Bloomberg article posted in this recent thread:

Delta Studying 10-20 Widebodies Order (by AeroWesty Mar 20 2013 in Civil Aviation)
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Wed Jul 31, 2013 10:19 pm

Quoting max999 (Reply 3):

Quoting jporterfi (Reply 2):
What is the reasoning for going with A330's over 767s? Are they cheaper to operate?

Based on what I've read on a.net...generally, the costs for running 330s and 767s are similar. But the A330 wins because it can carry more passengers, carry more cargo, and fly further (at least the 332). So the 330s top the 767s on the revenue side of the equation.

DL may order more 787s and take a hard look at the A350, then decide on the 777 both the W and the X variety. I doubt that the A330 is in the cards for DL unless they can find some second hand ones.
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Wed Jul 31, 2013 10:25 pm

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 11):
therefore DL is the most likely U.S. customer that Boeing probably envisions for a 777X order.

Depends on how soon DL needs the lift. If they need it before 2020, then no go. If they can wait, then the this is Boeing's order to lose.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 14):
The 77L has better economics beyond 2knm.

The difference either way is pretty miniscule.

A big question is whether DL is willing to consider adding a new type (A350) or even variant (77W, for example) to their fleet. If they are, they have 787s on order. They could simply try to push the delivery date up. If they aren't, then they are going to be buying brand-new A330s and I wonder if that's a good investment so late in that airframe's lifecycle.

They might also consider a smaller purchase from another carrier (or lessor), but if they are going to use the A330, HGW A330s with the range they'd need for transpac ops might be in short supply on the second-hand market.
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Wed Jul 31, 2013 10:27 pm

Quoting brilondon (Reply 21):
DL may order more 787s

They pushed their existing order back to after 2020, why would the order more if they are evidently not in a hurry to get the ones they have already ordered?

Quoting brilondon (Reply 21):
I doubt that the A330 is in the cards for DL unless they can find some second hand ones.

Were any of their 30+ A330s purchased second hand? Not sure why that would be a requirement.

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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Wed Jul 31, 2013 10:31 pm

Quoting brilondon (Reply 21):
DL may order more 787s and take a hard look at the A350, then decide on the 777 both the W and the X variety.

Remember, this is a bridging order. As the article from Bloomberg states:

Quote:
The order under study is for 10 to 20 Airbus A330s or Boeing 777s, said the people, who declined to be identified because the negotiations are private. Deliveries would start within a few years, one person said. Delta already has both plane types in its fleet.

Purchasing the jets would bridge Delta’s wide-body needs until the end of the decade, when Airbus’s more efficient A350 and Boeing’s 787-10 Dreamliner will have been in service for several years and would have any kinks worked out, one person said. Delta Chief Executive Officer Richard Anderson has said he prefers buying established models with proven reliability, which are cheaper over the long term even if they consume more fuel.
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Wed Jul 31, 2013 11:21 pm

They will order the A380s      
or the 747-8i
 
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Wed Jul 31, 2013 11:42 pm

If it's new aircraft they're after, I'd say 787-9/10.

If it's current aircraft, then I'd say 77L and A330. Maybe even some used 77Ws.

If my dreams came true, I'd say they pick up some dirt-cheap A346 to replace the 744s, but that will never happen. It does kinda fit their model though...
 
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Wed Jul 31, 2013 11:55 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 9):
how about finally retiring those NW 747-400s ??
Quoting rwy04lga (Reply 18):
Heaven forbid. They just invested in major upgrades.

Exactly. Delta has repeatedly said they intend to keep the 744's in service through 2020.

Quoting mia305 (Reply 25):
They will order the A380s

Not in my lifetime. The airplane is too big, no locally available spares and too unique to the environment that DL flies. They could probably make it work on some NRT routes but that is about it. DL is all about flexibility in fleet scheduling--moving aircraft around as the seasons and demand requires. While the A380 is a great aircraft it just does not fit the Delta model. Unless, of course, Airbus decided to cut a deal that was too good to refuse as they did with the Eastern A300 order way back when. They might do it just to get a toehold in the US market and DL has the financial chops to make it work--plus they would send the loss to Airbus if it failed. Even then, the A300 was only marginally successful in the US market.

Watch this space.
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Thu Aug 01, 2013 12:33 am

The order is for current model widebodies, likely with delivery in the 2015-2018 time frame. This will be a top-up order for 10-20 aircraft

The A330 and 777 are the aircraft being reviewed for this order.

I would expect either a split A330/777 order or an all-A330 order. I highly doubt this will be an all-777 order.

While DL could use some more 777s, 10-20 seems like overkill for much of their network. The A330 would given more flexibility, wheras the 777 would be overkill for anything but TPAC flying in DL's network.
 
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Thu Aug 01, 2013 12:44 am

Quoting mpdpilot (Reply 12):
I think the A330 is a sure thing. Almost guaranteed.

Agreed. This is what I am hearing as well. The only caveat is a Boeing offer of an incredible deal on some 777s to prevent an Airbus purchase. I do not see DL acquiring used wide bodies, the integration costs are too high for a limited number of aircraft.
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Thu Aug 01, 2013 1:03 am

Quoting mpdpilot (Reply 12):
Now that assumes DL is buying new. I however kind of think DL will look at used 77Es. This is more inline with their plans and once again, the 77E has more than enough performance to handle most of their new routes and replacing capacity on current ones

Up to 14-hours the 77E can match the 77L payload at about 40t. and this will get them from the West Coast to the Chinese mainland and over flying NRT
 
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Thu Aug 01, 2013 1:13 am

Quoting B757forever (Reply 29):
The only caveat is a Boeing offer of an incredible deal on some 777s to prevent an Airbus purchase.

Maybe they will do, but they will price their super cash cow, and then later others will try to get more cheap planes... when you have a very successful product, you dont give it away because you are lowering profits on the long run to get a single order... also Airbus can and ail sweeten their offer to get a nice fleet on Delta!.

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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Thu Aug 01, 2013 1:16 am

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 30):
Quoting mpdpilot (Reply 12):
Now that assumes DL is buying new. I however kind of think DL will look at used 77Es. This is more inline with their plans and once again, the 77E has more than enough performance to handle most of their new routes and replacing capacity on current ones

Up to 14-hours the 77E can match the 77L payload at about 40t. and this will get them from the West Coast to the Chinese mainland and over flying NRT

DL won't by 77Es. On the routes you are talking about, it costs a good deal more to operate. Boeing will be motivated to keep their existing line busy until the 77X goes into production. They will be motivated to not lose another domestic wb sale to Airbus. If they chose the 777, it will be the 77L. However, the HGW 330 is very capeable and Airbus will give them a great deal so I too think they will wind up going Airbus.
 
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Thu Aug 01, 2013 1:40 am

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Thread starter):

It has been much discussed on a.net that DL would shortly make a wide-body order so they can grow the international markets. What type or mix of types will it be?

I could see a small order (even used) of 77E or 77R's along with a 333 increase. New 77W's are so expensive and DL has repeatedly said it is trying to pay down long-term debt so I find it difficult to believe that they would spend that much for a new aircraft order even though it would make nice fit for those routes that need additional capacity.

Thoughts?

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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Thu Aug 01, 2013 1:48 am

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 30):
Up to 14-hours the 77E can match the 77L payload at about 40t. and this will get them from the West Coast to the Chinese mainland and over flying NRT

It may have a similar payload but I understand that the fuel burn is better on the 77L than the 77E on those type of routes.

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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Thu Aug 01, 2013 1:51 am

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 28):
The order is for current model widebodies, likely with delivery in the 2015-2018 time frame. This will be a top-up order for 10-20 aircraft

For first deliveries after the pilots' 747/777 fences come down, don't you think? 1/1/15 IIRC.
 
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Thu Aug 01, 2013 2:11 am

Quoting brilondon (Reply 21):
I doubt that the A330 is in the cards for DL unless they can find some second hand ones.

As I said earlier in another thread, I do think that the whole idea of DL looking for second-hand aircraft has become quite overblown on this forum. Yes, DL has acquired certain second-hand aircraft to build their fleet, but bear in mind that both the MD-90 and 717 are no longer in production, and have not been for a very long time. They had no choice but to build their fleet with used examples. That they found them (at least in the case of the MD-90) at dirt cheap prices is a bonus. However, given that Airbus has consistently improved upon the A330, and aircraft still in production, I don't see why DL would want to buy used when they can get brand new 330s that will be even more capable than the ones they already have.
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Thu Aug 01, 2013 3:21 am

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Thread starter):

Sadly it sounds like 330s.
Delta limiting themselves again.

Damn NW Way of thinking. 777 is such a better plane.
Meh is what it is though. Better than more outsourcing.
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Thu Aug 01, 2013 3:28 am

I'm thinking 777s are in the mix. Would love a few 767s but I don't think Delta is that smart.  
 
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Thu Aug 01, 2013 3:35 am

Delta will make a rather large order for the 787 at some point. The 767 has served Delta well and the 787 is the most logical replacement. Boeing probably has a handshake deal with Delta for early delivery slots. It’s just a matter of time before it happens.
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Thu Aug 01, 2013 3:47 am

Quoting pwdalmech (Reply 39):
Boeing probably has a handshake deal with Delta for early delivery slots.

Then why did they push their orders back until 2020?

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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Thu Aug 01, 2013 3:54 am

Quoting pwdalmech (Reply 39):
Boeing probably has a handshake deal with Delta for early delivery slots.

Considering how DL's CEO has been complaining about how expensive the 787 is, I think it's the opposite.

By deferring the 787 so deep, DL have now lost the preferential pricing they had as the US launch customer and will be paying much closer to "market rate" for their 787s - which when you take in the price escalations, will probably be tens of millions of dollars more per frame than if they had not deferred. And they almost certainly don't have any preferential delivery positions (unless they're willing to pay an additional premium for such slots, which they do not appear to be willing to do).

[Edited 2013-07-31 21:28:30]
 
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Thu Aug 01, 2013 4:13 am

How many 777L's does Delta have ?
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Thu Aug 01, 2013 4:18 am

Quoting Max Q (Reply 42):

They have ten.
N701DN
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Thu Aug 01, 2013 5:17 am

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 37):

I think that it could go to both A and B.

Though I don't think an all A330 would be that bad. They can still do a lot from the west coast to Asia with 330s.
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FSXJunkie
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Thu Aug 01, 2013 5:23 am

Just trowing it out their, why not 747-8?

Since the intercontinental isn't really selling that well I 'm sure Boeing would cut a huge deal to any purchasing US airline, Delta already operates 744's so transition costs would be lower than if they went with the A380.

Given Delta's strategy A330/777 makes the most sense,
 
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Thu Aug 01, 2013 5:28 am

Quoting FSXJunkie (Reply 45):
Just trowing it out their, why not 747-8?

Because again, this is a bridging order, to hold them over until they make a refleeting decision later in the decade. 747-8s don't fit that criteria.
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scbriml
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Thu Aug 01, 2013 5:32 am

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 37):
Sadly it sounds like 330s.

Nah, the 'experts' keep telling us DL will NEVER buy Airbus. You know, just like AA.   

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 37):
Delta limiting themselves again.

In what way? I suspect DL knows what they're doing better than you.   

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 37):
Damn NW Way of thinking. 777 is such a better plane.

It's a different plane.
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seahawk
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Thu Aug 01, 2013 5:41 am

Delta is quite strange. They decide to take their ordered 787s later but conider placing a not so small order for old generation widebodies, that will arrive later than the first 787s could have arrived.
 
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RE: So What Will The Rumored DLwide-body Order Be?

Thu Aug 01, 2013 5:42 am

Quoting FSXJunkie (Reply 45):
Just trowing it out their, why not 747-8?


Given their recent/current upgrade of their existing 744 fleet, it would appear they intend the earlier Boeing version to be their top-capacity airliner for a while longer. I'd say the 777-X will likely replace them, but not for sometime yet, but no doubt they'll be taking a close look at how well the 787, A350 and 777X lines and variants role out before making a well informed decision there.
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