DariusBieber
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The Future Of Düsseldorf (DUS)

Mon Aug 26, 2013 3:26 am

With Lufthansa canceling their DUS-MIA service, they are down to two destinations in the United States. Many have said that the latest rumors are about LH closing their hub operations at DUS to focus on FRA and MUC, as well as opening up BER.

With this in mind, what can we see with DUS in the future?

I personally use DUS a ton, and all my transatlantic flights have been packed.

(For those interested, I have flown:

ATL-DUS (Three times, all full flights on both the ATL-DUS and DUS-ATL route)

DTW-DUS (Once, flight to DUS was full. Flight to DTW was about 80%)

ORD-DUS (Once with LH, full both ways)

I have also flown the EWR-DUS route back when Continental still flew their DC-10s there, but it was too long ago to remember exact loads, etc...)

Can we see some progress from DUS? Perhaps see LH going to IAH using their leftover A340 they used for MIA? With United's enormous presence in IAH, this route may work.

Or perhaps can we see Delta restarting their DTW-DUS service to combat AA's ORD route?

I would love any discussion regarding this issue, as I think DUS is a fascinating airport and would serve as a great hub.

PS - I started a thread similar to this last year, saying I believed DUS was to get new service to USA and many posters disagreed wholeheartedly. Then AA announced their route to DUS.   
Darius Bieber
 
mhkansan
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RE: The Future Of Düsseldorf (DUS)

Mon Aug 26, 2013 4:29 am

DUS is blooming into a nice oneworld hub. Lots of connections available around Germany and also into Eastern Europe. I think LH will actually downsize DUS somewhat. I can't think of any routes that stick out in particular as missing.
 
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Alsatian
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RE: The Future Of Düsseldorf (DUS)

Mon Aug 26, 2013 5:51 am

We know that AF wants Air Berlin to join Skyteam as Etihad bought AB' stakes. That would probably mean DTW route to be re-launched or AB starting its own ATL service but just speculations yet...
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Boeing744
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RE: The Future Of Düsseldorf (DUS)

Mon Aug 26, 2013 7:26 am

Is LH still flying DUS-YYZ with an A343?
 
AWACSooner
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RE: The Future Of Düsseldorf (DUS)

Mon Aug 26, 2013 9:34 am

Quoting Boeing744 (Reply 3):

Is LH still flying DUS-YYZ with an A343?

Yes.

I wish LH would expand to more US destinations out of DUS...namely IAD or IAH. At least connect to other *A hubs.
 
Rara
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RE: The Future Of Düsseldorf (DUS)

Mon Aug 26, 2013 3:20 pm

I don't think DUS has ever been a hub for LH. Anyway it certainly won't become a hub, because LH is ceasing domestic and continental services ex DUS, and transferring all flights to Germanwings. You can transfer from 4U to LH and vice versa, but you aren't really meant to. For starters, you'll have to a pay a transit fee of 15 Euros.

I expect LH will treat DUS in the same way as other second-tier destinations in Germany: offer longhaul primarily for O&D, and only if profitable. That will probably mean frequent route changes in order to adapt to demand.

In short, don't expect anything great for DUS in the future. FRA, MUC and ZRH are enough hubs for LH.
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jreuschl
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RE: The Future Of Düsseldorf (DUS)

Mon Aug 26, 2013 3:35 pm

Quoting DariusBieber (Thread starter):
Then AA announced their route to DUS.

I assume that AA uses AB for connections at DUS. I flew on AB ORD-BER, er, TXL in April and was surprised at the amount of bags when arriving back at ORD that had connections on AA.
 
PanHAM
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RE: The Future Of Düsseldorf (DUS)

Mon Aug 26, 2013 3:51 pm

DUS still serves the biggest catchment area in Germany and handles over 20 million pax p.a. . LH does not make the mistake BA made and deserts the secondary and tertiary markets. In case of DUS it is rather a primary market.

Germanwings belongs to LH group which means that LH does not give up the non-hub (all except the feed of FRA/MUC) routes at all but rather has found a way to serve these routes. The fact that interlining is possible, even when, in a simplified costs structure a transfer fee is added.

DUS is the thirds largest German station and will remain that, regardless which name is on the aircraft.
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FlyingSicilian
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RE: The Future Of Düsseldorf (DUS)

Mon Aug 26, 2013 4:45 pm

Quoting DariusBieber (Thread starter):
Can we see some progress from DUS? Perhaps see LH going to IAH using their leftover A340 they used for MIA? With United's enormous presence in IAH, this route may work.

As much I was would love that for me to fly easier to see family and whatnot, I'd strongly presume LH would add MUC-IAH before DUS-IAH

Instead of adding IAH-MUC they put the 380 on IAH even, but MUC-IAH would make me happy also.

Too bad there couldn't be one big DUS/CGN airport maybe that would make it bigger hub but I know CGN pulls from a more southerly area of the NRW. Alas it won't happen.

I'd suspect DUS would need to look east for more traffic going forward IMHO
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DUSint
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RE: The Future Of Düsseldorf (DUS)

Mon Aug 26, 2013 5:10 pm

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 7):
DUS still serves the biggest catchment area in Germany and handles over 20 million pax p.a. . LH does not make the mistake BA made and deserts the secondary and tertiary markets. In case of DUS it is rather a primary market.

  

However:

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 7):
DUS is the thirds largest German station and will remain that, regardless which name is on the aircraft.

That is the "problem" in case of DUS - most times it will come in on the third place: Most longhaul routes will only be established in DUS, if they are already successfull in FRA & MUC.
With the difficult economic situation of many countries, the EU and also LH, I do not believe that there is much to be expected.
Maybe holding the status quo is the most what could be realistically whished for - or perhaps a new destination for the 343 which isn't used to MIA anymore.

Quoting mhkansan (Reply 1):
DUS is blooming into a nice oneworld hub.
Quoting FlyingSicilian (Reply 8):
I'd suspect DUS would need to look east for more traffic going forward IMHO

As I am still a believer, that a DUS-Japan route would make sense, this starts me thinking if it could be a good move for JAL to start it? Maybe to HND with a 788? IIRC, there were some reports of JAL mentioning new destinations, and DUS was one of them.
 
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SRQKEF
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RE: The Future Of Düsseldorf (DUS)

Mon Aug 26, 2013 7:59 pm

I know it's not the biggest player, but I wouldn't be surprised to see FI adding DUS at least seasonally in the next few years. A DUS-KEF route would likely connect to the North-American departure bank in the afternoon which gives connection opportunities to BOS, JFK, EWR, IAD, SFB, MSP, YYZ, SEA, DEN, YHZ and ANC.

Out of European cities within 3.5 hrs of Iceland which don't have service on Icelandair, Dusseldorf is among the largest. AB also seems to be doing well on the route, often sending 321s and always at least a 320 or 738 (IIRC they fly here 4x or 5x weekly from May to early September).

Both MUC and FRA do very well, of course Frankfurt is a well-established market for FI but Munich is pretty recent and goes out completely full every day. FI even upgauged it from 5x weekly to daily recently.

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a380787
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RE: The Future Of Düsseldorf (DUS)

Mon Aug 26, 2013 8:52 pm

DUS will probably remain, but LH has to figure out a subfleet for DUS flights. High F high J won't work there economically.

There are tons of gaps in MUC hub coverage compared to FRA. I see LH filling those before doing anything with DUS.
 
CRJ900
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RE: The Future Of Düsseldorf (DUS)

Mon Aug 26, 2013 10:52 pm

Norwegian (DY) dumped DUS in favour of Köln and that route is doing much better, I think. More touristy things in Köln, apparently.

Does Air Berlin and LH Group have a strong hold on DUS, making it difficult for other airlines to try to get a foot in the door?
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Viscount724
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RE: The Future Of Düsseldorf (DUS)

Mon Aug 26, 2013 11:08 pm

Quoting DUSint (Reply 9):
As I am still a believer, that a DUS-Japan route would make sense, this starts me thinking if it could be a good move for JAL to start it? Maybe to HND with a 788? IIRC, there were some reports of JAL mentioning new destinations, and DUS was one of them.

DUS was a stop on 2 of LH's 3 weekly Polar route flights to Japan via ANC in 707 days in the 1970s. HAM and CPH were also stops on those flights.

Routings of those 3 flights:

FRA-DUS-HAM-ANC-HND-OSA
FRA-DUS-CPH-ANC-HND-OSA
FRA-HAM-CPH-ANC-HND-OSA

LH also had 3 x week FRA-HND 707s then via the much longer route with 4 or 5 stops in Asia. Only the Polar route flights via ANC included the DUS stop and the tag-on domestic sector Tokyo-Osaka.
 
PanHAM
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RE: The Future Of Düsseldorf (DUS)

Tue Aug 27, 2013 5:29 am

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 13):
DUS was a stop on 2 of LH's 3 weekly Polar route flights to Japan via ANC in 707 days i

Not only with 707s but with 747s as well. JL had 2 flights via DUS and 2 via HAM as well, also 747s.

I do not remember the CPH stop

Quoting CRJ900 (Reply 12):
Does Air Berlin and LH Group have a strong hold on DUS, making it difficult for other airlines to try to get a foot in the door?

yes, both are strong. The fact that DY prefers CGN could be that CGN offers better slots and better charges as wlel.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 11):
DUS will probably remain,

absoluteloy, an airport with 20+ Mio pax p.a. and growth to 30+ mio possible has a business case.
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r2rho
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RE: The Future Of Düsseldorf (DUS)

Tue Aug 27, 2013 8:25 am

The main obstacle to DUS development is being missed here... it faces strong slot and operational restrictions that prevent it from any major development and make it unviable for hub operations - so the future of DUS should be pretty much the same as its present. Among other things, DUS is only allowed to operate one runway at a time and is at or above capacity during peak hours. They have recently requested to be allowed to operate both rwys...but I doubt anything will become of that.

Further info in German: http://www.airliners.de/slot-mangel-...etriebgenehmigung-beantragen/29864

In terms of market potential, DUS has tons of it, no doubt. If DUS had ample runway capacity and MUC hadn't been built, it could have become LH's second hub IMO. Too late for that, so don't expect much more than the status quo from LH. It could/should however become an increasingly important focus city for AB. But never more than a focus city, because of its restricted capacity (even if they were to get approval to use both rwys, it would only handle 60 ops/hour, not enough for hub operations). A pity because DUS has a better business case than BER for AB IMO.
 
PanHAM
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RE: The Future Of Düsseldorf (DUS)

Tue Aug 27, 2013 9:25 am

You are right about the slots, the recent application to use both runways making 60 slots per hour possibloe was for three hours each in the peak morning and afternoon only.

It is amazing that a country wastes business and growth potential with all that goes along with it. The present situation is comparable to tying the legs of a hundred meter dasher. We have to come to a new thinking but this will take time and a new generation that sheds these wrong ideas of the past.
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DUSint
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RE: The Future Of Düsseldorf (DUS)

Tue Aug 27, 2013 12:03 pm

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 13):
DUS was a stop on 2 of LH's 3 weekly Polar route flights to Japan via ANC in 707 days in the 1970s. HAM and CPH were also stops on those flights.

Routings of those 3 flights:

FRA-DUS-HAM-ANC-HND-OSA
FRA-DUS-CPH-ANC-HND-OSA
FRA-HAM-CPH-ANC-HND-OSA

LH also had 3 x week FRA-HND 707s then via the much longer route with 4 or 5 stops in Asia. Only the Polar route flights via ANC included the DUS stop and the tag-on domestic sector Tokyo-Osaka.

Thank you, I always enjoy your encyclopedic knowledge!

Quoting r2rho (Reply 15):
so the future of DUS should be pretty much the same as its present.

Well, yes and no - at least this is my opinion.
Yes - there won't be radical changes because of the reasons you seem to have described well.
No - because I see small, gradual changes to the better (I am not talking of LH specifically) - and that's also because of the reasons you mentioned. It is not possible for DUS to grow fast and rapid. But that isn't a bad thing necessarily.
Ok, MIA has been suspended, but otoh there has been Etihad as a new carrier, AA from ORD, EK has established both daily flights to 77W (there were years with 772 or even 332) and from Sept. 1st there is a new route to LCY (I wondered for some years now why nobody tried it).
 
EddieDude
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RE: The Future Of Düsseldorf (DUS)

Wed Aug 28, 2013 12:37 am

Quoting DariusBieber (Thread starter):
I think DUS is a fascinating airport and would serve as a great hub.

I have flown out of DUS once and I do agree it is a great facilty. Sadly, as r2rho explains, it is limited as a large hub.

Quoting DUSint (Reply 9):
Maybe to HND with a 788?

I agree that would be auspicious.

Quoting r2rho (Reply 15):
The main obstacle to DUS development is being missed here... it faces strong slot and operational restrictions that prevent it from any major development and make it unviable for hub operations - so the future of DUS should be pretty much the same as its present. Among other things, DUS is only allowed to operate one runway at a time and is at or above capacity during peak hours.

Thanks r2rho. I had read several times here that DUS was restricted, but did not know the cause for that.

Quoting r2rho (Reply 15):
A pity because DUS has a better business case than BER for AB IMO.

Absolutely agree.
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