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LAXintl
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CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Thu Sep 12, 2013 10:55 pm

Just read a pretty detailed piece about evolution of business at Cathay Pacific.

Among many items covered here are some highlights.

o Challenging business environment - remain focused on profitability
o 77W's great - 22% more efficient per payload tonne vs 744 - "unprofitable 747 route becomes a very profitable 777 route”. 6 more 77W in 2013, 8 in 2014 and 4 in 2015.
o Modest downgauge from 744 to 77W improved yield also.
o Premium economy growing in popularity and helped improve economy yield mix - esp North America and LHR.
o 5th LHR service running at 95% LF.
o Constrained by air-service-agreements in some markets like Australia, so focus on boosting yields with existing capacity.
o Jetstar is nothing more than a franchise operation, and against HK law. Dangerous precedent if allowed.
o CX + Dragonair face stiff competition already, not afraid of LCCs. Working on modifying fare classes to provide even better price/service offerings on regional routes.
o HK already has local LCC that is growing (HK Express)
o Next big expansion opportunities is Africa - for example Algeria and Nigeria strong demand from China markets. Could use A340s before A359 arrive.
o Cargo conundrum. Demand still weak. 777F order sent to China. 3 more 748F coming, and last 744BCF leaving fleet.
o Shanghai-based JV Air China Cargo (ACC) continued to bleed red ink - hopefully improve as 777F replace "gas-guzzling" 744.
o One of the airlines actively co-operating with Boeing on the design of the 777X - a "420 seat ULH heavy duty airliner."
o 777-9X "will achieve incredible efficiencies" - 20% lower block fuel burn than the 77W and 15% lower cash operating cost (COC) per seat.
o With 777-9X, CX is very likely to bypass VLA order.
o VLA - significant inherent financial risk
o 777-9X would strike the “sweet spot” between capacity growth and passenger yield as VLA risks cannibalising passenger yields as airlines use discounts to fill.


Full story:
CATHAY PACIFIC COULD PROFIT FROM CHANGING TIMES
http://www.aspireaviation.com/2013/0...-could-profit-from-changing-times/

=

Overall sounds like CX will remain focused on offering a strong global network with a high quality product, along with strong emphasis on corporate financial performance.
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NZ107
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Thu Sep 12, 2013 11:04 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
Constrained by air-service-agreements in some markets like Australia, so focus on boosting yields with existing capacity.

I believe the air service agreement with Australia limits the number of movements. I'd like to see CX throw some 77Ws on this route in order to increase capacity. I'm sure that could work for them too.

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
Next big expansion opportunities is Africa - for example Algeria and Nigeria strong demand from China markets. Could use A340s before A359 arrive.

They'd need to inherit a few more aircraft if they wanted to do this. They don't currently have enough aircraft coming in to replace the A343s - the 744s are the ones being removed from service as the new 77Ws are added.
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na
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Thu Sep 12, 2013 11:14 pm

Ok, I´ll bypass CX from now on. I once liked them, but with no VLA they wont see me as a paying passenger again.
 
meta
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Thu Sep 12, 2013 11:30 pm

Quoting na (Reply 2):
Ok, I´ll bypass CX from now on. I once liked them, but with no VLA they wont see me as a paying passenger again.

So because they don't want new 747-8's or A380's you won't fly CX  
The 77W is hardly small...
 
phxa340
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Thu Sep 12, 2013 11:40 pm

Quoting na (Reply 2):
I once liked them, but with no VLA they wont see me as a paying passenger again.

Right, because every carrier with an A380 is better than CX. CX, if they bypass the A380, will prove that you don't need an A380 to beat an A380.
 
behramjee
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Thu Sep 12, 2013 11:50 pm

you forgot to mention few key notes from the article:

1. DFW will be the next U.S. destination using the B77W

2. New EU routes being seriously studied for the A359 include BCN, MAD and BRU effective 2016
 
kengo
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Thu Sep 12, 2013 11:54 pm

If this order materializes, it would give a big boost to the 777-9 program, considering CX is already a customer for the A35J.
 
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 12:12 am

Quoting Kengo (Reply 6):
If this order materializes, it would give a big boost to the 777-9 program, considering CX is already a customer for the A35J.

How, they are quite different in size! In CXs system they will be for different markets. Unless you think CX buying the A35J makes them more likely to buy the A380 which was probably never going to be the case.
 
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 12:24 am

Hmm, the African expansion is very logical particularly Lagos with the amount of Chinese investment in recent years. However they will face very heavy competition from the Gulf carriers as well as ET, as the West Africa to Asia market represents a majority of the pax leaving Lagos on these carriers.

The 779 is also interesting, seems 10 abreast is very likely and the seat width should be on par with the 17.5" currently offered on their 747....this certainly makes the 18" economy seat importance comment questionable. I do believe the availability of Y+ gives them much more flexibility regarding the Y pax who wants and pays for wider(ish) seats
...and it seems to be paying off too with high average load factors and good yield to boot.

Though a 420 seat 779 in CX 4 class configuration seems very unlikely, even in a 3 class config with F...except of course this is a 3 class config with J & Y+.

The CX document @ the end of the article makes for a good read, especially for Boeing heavy pilots and those interested in a bit more of their thoughts on the folding wingtip mechanism.

It's also good to hear an airline revealing trip costs and cost per seat comparisons.....it will be certainly impressive if the 779 does deliver 20% lower fuel burn than a 77W...so excited! 
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 12:49 am

Nice to see CX looking at new long haul routes. I read a recent article on CAPA website comparing the recent performance of CX to SQ: Singapore Airlines is falling behind Cathay Pacific as Asia's network airline giants diverge

It mentions that CX is trying to snap up as many of the remaining slots at HKG as they can, even to the point of flying unprofitable routes for now - essentially slot-sitting. So these new long haul routes would likely replace some regional routes that aren't doing so well wither at CX or KA.

Quoting waly777 (Reply 8):
The 779 is also interesting, seems 10 abreast is very likely and the seat width should be on par with the 17.5" currently offered on their 747....this certainly makes the 18" economy seat importance comment questionable. I do believe the availability of Y+ gives them much more flexibility regarding the Y pax who wants and pays for wider(ish) seats

If the 779 can fit a 747 seat at 10 abreast then CX would certainly be happy with that. I think some of the Asian carriers like CX, SQ & KE have avoided 10 abreast on their 777s as the seats are too narrow for their "premium" market positioning.
 
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 12:59 am

Quoting QFVHOQA (Reply 9):
If the 779 can fit a 747 seat at 10 abreast then CX would certainly be happy with that. I think some of the Asian carriers like CX, SQ & KE have avoided 10 abreast on their 777s as the seats are too narrow for their "premium" market positioning.

It should fit the 17.5" seats in 10 abreast perhaps with a marginal reduction in aisle width....as the current 77W has 18.5" at 9 abreast...and Boeing plans to introduce an additional 4" width in the cabin.
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 1:14 am

Quoting na (Reply 2):
Ok, I´ll bypass CX from now on. I once liked them, but with no VLA they wont see me as a paying passenger again.

It's fortunate for our ability to fly to lots of destinations at reasonable cost that almost no passengers think the same way you do.
 
XT6Wagon
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 2:29 am

I am shocked. More than 10 posts and not one person has said "The A380 is perfect for them and they are going to order lots of them" Which is the ususal CX thread.

While I'm not sure they will order the 777-9x, Its certainly reasonable for them to pick it to top the fleet. A351 while close won't have the range/payload of the 779, making the two frames complementry. The 778 is... highly unlikely.
 
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 4:06 am

Quoting na (Reply 2):
Ok, I´ll bypass CX from now on. I once liked them, but with no VLA they wont see me as a paying passenger again.

Good riddance. I'm sure CX won't miss you.

Quoting waly777 (Reply 8):
The 779 is also interesting, seems 10 abreast is very likely and the seat width should be on par with the 17.5" currently offered on their 747....this certainly makes the 18" economy seat importance comment questionable.

  

Indeed. If the 10 abreast 747 is just fine, then so too will the 10 abreast 777X be fine as the whole point of adding those 4" of cabin width is to allow for the same width economy seats as the 744 to be fitted, albeit with a narrower aisle.

Quoting waly777 (Reply 8):
Though a 420 seat 779 in CX 4 class configuration seems very unlikely, even in a 3 class config with F...except of course this is a 3 class config with J & Y+.

Even in a J, W and Y configuration, I can't see how they're going to fit 420 seats in a 777-9X. The current 77W with such a configuration seats 340, so 420 would be an 80 seat increase. The only way 420 seats are going to fit on the 777-9X in CX configuration would be to reduce the number of premium seats available, or alternatively, configure the 777-9X with a 2-class regional seat configuration.
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 4:08 am

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 12):
I am shocked. More than 10 posts and not one person has said "The A380 is perfect for them and they are going to order lots of them" Which is the ususal CX thread.

You may still see CX ordering the A380. Perhaps the A380-900 which they are very interested in?

They change their mind all the time.....
 
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 5:09 am

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
Just read a pretty detailed piece about evolution of business at Cathay Pacific

You haven't said so (which bends the forums rules a bit I'd guess), but is this the Aspire Aviation article?
If so, some of the commentary above is not attributable to CX, but is Aspire's own take

Quoting na (Reply 2):
Ok, I´ll bypass CX from now on. I once liked them, but with no VLA they wont see me as a paying passenger again

CX as far as I can tell haven't said this at all. I take this to be Aspire's own opinion

I'm not predicting it, but you may yet see your CX VLA's

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 13):
Good riddance. I'm sure CX won't miss you

Spoken like a true airliner enthusiast .....

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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 5:13 am

@ Laxintl: thanks for this very interesting summary. It's always good to have some threads to get some grounding (or earthing, I think this is the correct British word) to the real aviation world.

Quoting na (Reply 2):

with no VLA

For me, the 779 will be a VLA.
 
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Francoflier
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 6:43 am

Mr. Daniel Tsang, who wrote the article, is very likely a well informed journalist with great insights into CX and its market, however, this remains his writing and his analysis, and none of this, apart from a few quotes, comes from the horse's mouth.

Out of that, I'd say:

777-X is pretty much a given at CX, given its commitment into the program already. I just can't see them cramming 420 seats in it, not in a 4 class cabin where they currently fit around 300 in the 77W. Even with 10 abreast eco.

CX's operating philosophy of maximizing yields and profits, at the expense of volume and possibly market shares, is pretty evident. Though maybe a little too conservative and unambitious in my opinion. There is stiff competition out there, but CX still has a good hold of the booming Chinese market.

Routes to Africa? Why not, but I don't see it happening soon, not before they receive the A350.
I could see BCN, BRU, why not ZRH or MAN. The A350 will certainly allow them to open new markets with a lower risk than the 777 or current A340.

DFW with the 777 seems very likely as well, though I would be surprised if the don't consider other east coast destinations too.
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trent900
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:03 am

Quoting na (Reply 2):
Ok, I´ll bypass CX from now on. I once liked them, but with no VLA they wont see me as a paying passenger again.
Quoting meta (Reply 3):
So because they don't want new 747-8's or A380's you won't fly CX
The 77W is hardly small...

I'm sure na is referring to the comfort of ride. I find 77W's uncomfortable on long journeys ie; noise, space etc which always makes me try and book on an A380 first (I'm sure we're not the only two people that does this), but as other people have mentioned this isn't always possible.

Trent.
 
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sassiciai
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:05 am

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 13):
Good riddance. I'm sure CX won't miss you.

Not just pointessly rude, but IMHO thoughtless and stupid! Of course the airline will "miss out" if he goes elsewhere, gifting revenue to a competitor is never a happy event for an airline

How dumb to reply without even verifying why!

I'm sure that CX is aware of the "halo effect" around the larger of the VLAs as reported by its operators, and that this keeps on drawing the punters to seek out that aircraft when possible, drawing them away from others

Elsewhere on this site, there is a discussion on-going about the noise levels that some posters find excessive inside the 777, CX's main long haul platform. You might consider whether this is behind his reluctance to fly CX!
 
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:11 am

Quoting United Airline (Reply 14):
You may still see CX ordering the A380. Perhaps the A380-900 which they are very interested in?

I just don't see it. I think it's pretty clear they favor frequency over gauge; they fly 5 daily NYC trips for crying out loud, and 5 LHR, both places they could easily reduce trips with 380/748.

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
o 5th LHR service running at 95% LF.
Quoting francoflier (Reply 17):
CX's operating philosophy of maximizing yields and profits, at the expense of volume and possibly market shares, is pretty evident

   And the way to do that is with schedule frequency versus gauge, which they've been doing

Quoting behramjee (Reply 5):
1. DFW will be the next U.S. destination using the B77W

Why AA went to ICN over DFW I will never know...

Quoting na (Reply 2):
Ok, I´ll bypass CX from now on. I once liked them, but with no VLA they wont see me as a paying passenger again.

I feel the same way about WN and the L10 
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Francoflier
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:38 am

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 20):
And the way to do that is with schedule frequency versus gauge, which they've been doing

Yes, that's true.
However, as the analyst wrote, some of their markets are movement restricted already.
Hopefully the 777X is enough metal to upgauge these routes.

Which sort of brings me to wonder about the replacement of the 77As. Those are high density aircraft for regional routes.
Some seat close to 400. CX has been operating high density regional jumbos since the Tristar.

I wonder if some of the A350s or 777X will be configured in high density configuration for these routes?
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sassiciai
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:58 am

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 20):
I just don't see it. I think it's pretty clear they favor frequency over gauge; they fly 5 daily NYC trips for crying out loud, and 5 LHR, both places they could easily reduce trips with 380/748.

I just compared SIN-LHR with SIA, and HKG-LHR with Cathay

SIA has 4 non-stop departures (plus one on Virgin via a stop in the ME), departure times are
01.00
09.05
12.45
23.30
Three of these are A380

CX has 6 non-stop departures, one is a B747, the others are B777W, departure times are
00.20
00.35 (B744)
10.05
10.25
14.40
23.55

Is this CX offer all about frequency? Really only 3 times to choose from. Two of these leave 20 minutes apart just after 10am. There are 3 departures that are effectively at the same time around midnight, indicative of needing 3 B777W to address the demand (note that almost simultaneously around midnight, BA has two departures - one of which will soon be A380, and if memory serves me well, VA also has departure(s) at that time). It could be argued that this CX route would benefit from flying A380s.

SIA has 4 different departure times, probably offers as many/more seats, and does it with 4 rotations instead of 6, on routes that have broadly similar lengths!
 
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:58 am

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 13):

Even in a J, W and Y configuration, I can't see how they're going to fit 420 seats in a 777-9X. The current 77W with such a configuration seats 340, so 420 would be an 80 seat increase. The only way 420 seats are going to fit on the 777-9X in CX configuration would be to reduce the number of premium seats available, or alternatively, configure the 777-9X with a 2-class regional seat configuration.

10 abreast will get them another 33 seats. The additional length of the 779 vs 77W will get them another 30-40 seats. So that's 63-73 seats right there. Going from 32" to 31" with slimline seats gets another 10. for a total of 83 additional seats. 83+340 = 423. So even a couple seats to spare. 420 in a J, E+, E config certainly is doable.
 
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:58 am

Quoting francoflier (Reply 21):
I wonder if some of the A350s or 777X will be configured in high density configuration for these routes?

The 420 seats in the 777X are probably based on a high density configuration.
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 8:02 am

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 20):

I just don't see it. I think it's pretty clear they favor frequency over gauge; they fly 5 daily NYC trips for crying out loud, and 5 LHR, both places they could easily reduce trips with 380/748.

True, and their flights to/from NYC are pretty well spread out throughout the day.
However, some of their frequencies are really close to each other (due to schedule preference, slots..etc), and I just don't see any real advantage for passengers (especially for long Haul ops).

Some examples:

HKG to LHR
CX257 : 10:05
CX239 : 10:25

LHR to HKG
CX254 : 22:20
CX238 : 22:35

HKG to CDG
CX261 : 00:05
CX279 : 00:45

Even for most business travelers, what do 30min difference make considering you're going on a 12h flight?
With all the costs incurred by those "double" flights (operations, crew, jet fuel etc..), I still believe CX will not completely rule out the VLA sub-fleet option.
 
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 8:04 am

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
o With 777-9X, CX is very likely to bypass VLA order.
o VLA - significant inherent financial risk
o 777-9X would strike the “sweet spot” between capacity growth and passenger yield as VLA risks cannibalising passenger yields as airlines use discounts to fill.

I don't think anyone here can claim to be surprised at this, but it's very good news just the same.

Quoting na (Reply 2):

Ok, I´ll bypass CX from now on. I once liked them, but with no VLA they wont see me as a paying passenger again.

I get why it's nice to fly the 380. But honestly, the only 380 operator that flies where(ish) CX does and operates a 380, and is approximately competitive (though not quite as good overall lately) would be SQ or TG. Certainly you could book with CZ or MAS, but would you really take those over CX? Just for the 388?

Quoting waly777 (Reply 8):

The 779 is also interesting, seems 10 abreast is very likely and the seat width should be on par with the 17.5" currently offered on their 747....this certainly makes the 18" economy seat importance comment questionable.

I'd certainly say that's possible, but I would not call it done just yet. CX have avoided the rush to 10Y on their existing machines thus far, and there isn't a reason to say their changing this is a foregone conclusion...

Quoting N14AZ (Reply 16):
For me, the 779 will be a VLA.

Indeed! Given the capacities involved, the capability, I think it past due that common knowledge begins to admit that 346s and 77Ws are already VLAs; and certainly 35Js & 779s will be as well.
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 8:48 am

Quoting DarkSnowyNight (Reply 26):
I'd certainly say that's possible, but I would not call it done just yet. CX have avoided the rush to 10Y on their existing machines thus far, and there isn't a reason to say their changing this is a foregone conclusion...

A 779 that used the extra width to have even wider 9Y seats would be lovely, but very unlikely...
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DarkSnowyNight
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 8:55 am

Quoting AirbusA6 (Reply 27):
A 779 that used the extra width to have even wider 9Y seats would be lovely, but very unlikely...

That would certainly be the case if the extra width were somehow optional, but it isn't as though CX gets a choice here. The 779 cabin will be wider, whatever happens. I certainly wouldn't say it won't happen, of course. I just don't think it's as automatic as that (note I'm not saying it would be a bad idea or anything like that, just that I can see a lot of business reasoning for leaving it alone as well).
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 8:58 am

Quoting spink (Reply 23):
10 abreast will get them another 33 seats. The additional length of the 779 vs 77W will get them another 30-40 seats. So that's 63-73 seats right there. Going from 32" to 31" with slimline seats gets another 10. for a total of 83 additional seats. 83+340 = 423. So even a couple seats to spare. 420 in a J, E+, E config certainly is doable.

Indeed. Going from 9-abreast to 10-abreast in a larger aircraft is the key here.

Now before people start panicking about comfort etc: read the document. It literally says:

Quote:
Boeing is planning to market the 777X stretch to CX as a 420 seat (in CX configuration) ULH heavy duty airliner

Thus keep in mind:

> It's a cabin proposal from Boeing to CX
> Boeing marketing always uses high-density configurations
> See it as a playground for CX, something their fleet planners can use to start from

Quoting N14AZ (Reply 16):
For me, the 779 will be a VLA.

Boeing doesn't project it as a VLA.

Quoting AirbusA6 (Reply 27):
A 779 that used the extra width to have even wider 9Y seats would be lovely, but very unlikely...

Very unlikely in today's economic times.

[Edited 2013-09-13 02:01:07]
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MaverickM11
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 9:12 am

Quoting francoflier (Reply 21):
However, as the analyst wrote, some of their markets are movement restricted already.

Like where though? They don't seem to be having much trouble getting slots anywhere.

Quoting sassiciai (Reply 22):
CX has 6 non-stop departures, one is a B747, the others are B777W, departure times are
00.20
00.35 (B744)
Quoting AF185 (Reply 25):
However, some of their frequencies are really close to each other (due to schedule preference, slots..etc), and I just don't see any real advantage for passengers (especially for long Haul ops).

True, but those two trips add up to a lot of seats, and more importantly, those two aircraft can go to two different destinations beyond HKG.
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 9:25 am

Quoting francoflier (Reply 17):
CX's operating philosophy of maximizing yields and profits, at the expense of volume and possibly market shares, is pretty evident
Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 20):
And the way to do that is with schedule frequency versus gauge, which they've been doing

Doesn't that favour the A350 over the 777X then? Or am I experiencing another case of the A380 having its own rules?

Rgds
 
XT6Wagon
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 9:30 am

Quoting AF185 (Reply 25):
Even for most business travelers, what do 30min difference make considering you're going on a 12h flight?
With all the costs incurred by those "double" flights (operations, crew, jet fuel etc..), I still believe CX will not completely rule out the VLA sub-fleet option.

Its very hard to park 1/2 a A380, or switch 1/2 a A380 to a new route. You also have to look at the costs for having a limited number of frames of a certain type.

Could they use the A380? Yes, certainly.
Do they want to use the A380? Given their statements for the whole history of the A380 program till today.... No. They also don't want a 748i. Its that simple.
 
seansasLCY
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 9:38 am

Quoting sassiciai (Reply 22):

CX has 6 non-stop departures, one is a B747, the others are B777W, departure times are
00.20
00.35 (B744)
10.05
10.25
14.40
23.55

I thought CX operated 5 daily to LHR?

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
5th LHR service running at 95% LF.
 
330lover
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 9:48 am

Quoting seansasLCY (Reply 33):
Quoting sassiciai (Reply 22):

CX has 6 non-stop departures, one is a B747, the others are B777W, departure times are
00.20
00.35 (B744)
10.05
10.25
14.40
23.55

I thought CX operated 5 daily to LHR?

From Galileo:

1.....7 HKG LHR 0020 0620 CX 237 77W
1234567 HKG LHR 0035 0620 CX 255 744
1234567 HKG LHR 1005 1600 CX 257 77W
.23456. HKG LHR 1025 1615 CX 239 77W
1234567 HKG LHR 1440 2030 CX 253 77W
1234567 HKG LHR 2355# 0540 CX 251 77W


so on day 1/7 CX 237 at 0020
and on days 2-6 CX 329 at 1025

So yes: total of 5 flights daily
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sassiciai
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 9:49 am

Quoting seansasLCY (Reply 33):
CX has 6 non-stop departures, one is a B747, the others are B777W, departure times are
00.20
00.35 (B744)
10.05
10.25
14.40
23.55

I thought CX operated 5 daily to LHR?

You are correct.

I looked too quickly at the CX timetable - the 00.20 departure replaces the 10.25 two days per week (Sunday and Monday). In the timetable matrix, it is in a list of 6 rows!
 
CX Flyboy
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 9:50 am

Quoting francoflier (Reply 17):
Mr. Daniel Tsang, who wrote the article, is very likely a well informed journalist with great insights into CX and its market, however, this remains his writing and his analysis, and none of this, apart from a few quotes, comes from the horse's mouth.

Exactly. There has been no new information about CX. Just to be clear, everything written there has been strung together from information already known and most of it already previously discussed even on the forums here. Much of it is the opinion of the writer only. However he has done a good job of consolisating information and analysing it.

Quoting sassiciai (Reply 22):
Is this CX offer all about frequency? Really only 3 times to choose from. Two of these leave 20 minutes apart just after 10am.

The strategy is frequency. The end result is that you get whatever you can get in terms of LHR slots. They are not ideal but you fly them anyway then hope for better ones as they come available. Having said that, the flights are almost totally full all the time, so it is still mission accomplished for CX.
 
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DarkSnowyNight
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 10:03 am

Quoting astuteman (Reply 31):
Doesn't that favour the A350 over the 777X then? Or am I experiencing another case of the A380 having its own rules?

I would think it favors both types (the 35J & 779, I mean). Part of the gift of frequency is that you get a good bit of discretion over which gauge to use when. Just as an example, I could totally envisage an extra daily to LAX (since we already don't get too many from CX) with an A35J or even an A359 in addition to the current lineup of 77Ws, and eventual 779s.

This would be no means be impossible with an A388, no doubt. But it would be harder to place that 380 somewhere else, should the need arise, than it would a 779.
Be A Perfectionst, You're Nothing If You're Just Another; Something Material, This Isn't Personal...
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 10:11 am

Quoting sassiciai (Reply 22):
CX has 6 non-stop departures, one is a B747, the others are B777W, departure times are
Quoting sassiciai (Reply 22):
Is this CX offer all about frequency? Really only 3 times to choose from. Two of these leave 20 minutes apart just after 10am. There are 3 departures that are effectively at the same time around midnight, indicative of needing 3 B777W to address the demand (note that almost simultaneously around midnight, BA has two departures - one of which will soon be A380, and if memory serves me well, VA also has departure(s) at that time). It could be argued that this CX route would benefit from flying A380s.


The current A380 is too small but also too big for CX.

One A380-800 is just a bit too small to replace 2x 77W aircraft. Let's have a look at the available seats:

> 4-class 77W: 275 seats / 550 seats
> 3-class F 77W: 297 seats / 594 seats
> 3-class Y+ 77W: 340 seats / 680 seats

BA has 4-class A380s with 469 seats while LH has 3-class A380s with 525 seats. It's obvious the -800 is too small to replace two 77W aircraft, but a larger aircraft might do the job.

On the other hand, replacing one 77W with one A380-800 would be a massive increase of available seats, making the -800 too big for CX, unless demand for air travel would grow enormously so it can justify six A380-800s on those routes.

[Edited 2013-09-13 03:12:50]
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frigatebird
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 10:24 am

Quoting francoflier (Reply 21):
Which sort of brings me to wonder about the replacement of the 77As. Those are high density aircraft for regional routes.
Some seat close to 400. CX has been operating high density regional jumbos since the Tristar.

I wonder if some of the A350s or 777X will be configured in high density configuration for these routes?

A359 seems to be the most likely candidate to replace the 2-class 772s, together with the 2-class A343s.

Quoting sassiciai (Reply 22):
It could be argued that this CX route would benefit from flying A380s.

IIRC, even CX acknowledged this. However, this HKG-LHR route was one the few routes, along with perhaps one or two others. Just enough to sustain no more than 10 A380s, not enough for CX to sustain as a subfleet.

Quoting spink (Reply 23):
10 abreast will get them another 33 seats. The additional length of the 779 vs 77W will get them another 30-40 seats. So that's 63-73 seats right there. Going from 32" to 31" with slimline seats gets another 10. for a total of 83 additional seats. 83+340 = 423. So even a couple seats to spare. 420 in a J, E+, E config certainly is doable.

I've reacted in the dedicated 777X developments thread, but it is better discussed in this thread so I'll copy it if you don't mind:
This is probably how they could achieve it, but in reality I can't see CX sacrificing that much of the comfort which makes them a premium, 5 star airline, to cram as many pax in their cabins. It would ruin their reputation IMO.

10 abreast in Y will only gain 23 maximum in reality. It requires an extra seat in the centre of the Y cabin, and at the back this is not possible because of the stronger curvature of the fuselage. This will affect at least 4 rows of Y at the back, see current 10Y 777 configurations. And you cannot add any seats where CX has lavs or galleys positioned in the middle.
As for Y+, reducing seat width will just scare away the passengers who are willing to pay a premium for a more comfy seat.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 29):
Quoting N14AZ (Reply 16):For me, the 779 will be a VLA.Boeing doesn't project it as a VLA.

It will be bigger than the 747 classic though!  Wow!
146,318/19/20/21,AB6,332,343,345,388,722,732/3/4/5/G/8,9,742,74E,744,752,762,763,772,77E,773,77W,AT4/7,ATP,CRK,E90,F50/7
 
MaverickM11
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 10:45 am

Quoting astuteman (Reply 31):
Doesn't that favour the A350 over the 777X then? Or am I experiencing another case of the A380 having its own rules?

I think it depends how the economics of the 777X and 350 ultimately compare. It's a smaller step change between the twins than from the twins to a 380.
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
a380787
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 10:47 am

Quoting behramjee (Reply 5):
1. DFW will be the next U.S. destination using the B77W

"This cross-feeding between Cathay Pacific’s international network and Dragonair’s regional one is going to be of greater and greater importance as the airline evaluates new routes to Dallas-Fort Worth using new Boeing 777-300ERs "

They only said "evaluating" not guranteed next one. Everyone thought their next would be HKG-DFW when they surprised people with HKG-EWR.
 
RedChili
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 10:57 am

Quoting DarkSnowyNight (Reply 26):
I get why it's nice to fly the 380. But honestly, the only 380 operator that flies where(ish) CX does and operates a 380, and is approximately competitive (though not quite as good overall lately) would be SQ or TG. Certainly you could book with CZ or MAS, but would you really take those over CX? Just for the 388?

Depending on the route, they also compete with airlines like QF, EK, QR, LH, BA, AF (and one day maybe VS) that either fly or will fly the A380 on routes where CX could be an alternative.
Top 10 airplanes: B737, T154, B747, IL96, T134, IL62, A320, MD80, B757, DC10
 
kaitak
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:31 am

Quoting behramjee (Reply 5):
1. DFW will be the next U.S. destination using the B77W

As A380787 mentions above, many (myself included) expected this instead of DFW.

Quoting behramjee (Reply 5):
2. New EU routes being seriously studied for the A359 include BCN, MAD and BRU effective 2016

What about MAN.

Quoting United Airline (Reply 14):
They change their mind all the time.....

Not necessarily; they said they would evaluate the A380 and they did; it didn't make the grade. They are not going to jump on the A380 bandwagon if it doesn't meet their criteria - and good for them. They know their market and they have a plan and right now, the 777X seems to fgit their needs better.

Quoting N14AZ (Reply 16):
For me, the 779 will be a VLA.

Me too!

Quoting AirbusA6 (Reply 27):
A 779 that used the extra width to have even wider 9Y seats would be lovely, but very unlikely..

I wonder if CX will have a problem if the A35J is seen as more comfortable than the 779, if they go for 10 abreast. They will want to avoid a perception of one aircraft being perceived as considerably more comfortable than another. Presumably they will also work on soundproofing on the 779, because I have heard a number of complaints about cabin noise on the 777.
 
fcogafa
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:33 am

Quoting RedChili (Reply 42):
Depending on the route, they also compete with airlines like QF, EK, QR, LH, BA, AF (and one day maybe VS) that either fly or will fly the A380 on routes where CX could be an alternative.

Their loads don't seem to be too bad considering they don't have the 'attraction' of the A380(!)

Also, replacing B777s with A380s looses useful cargo space
 
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DarkSnowyNight
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 12:13 pm

Quoting RedChili (Reply 42):

Depending on the route, they also compete with airlines like QF, EK, QR, LH, BA, AF (and one day maybe VS) that either fly or will fly the A380 on routes where CX could be an alternative.

You do have a good point. Nevertheless, for all of those except for maybe EK, CX still has an edge in every non Y class section. And that's not to say their Y isn't a front-runner either, just that there is more of a difference closer to the front.

Long story short, while there is indeed an attraction now to flying the 380, it isn't a big enough factor that CX should concern themselves with it, especially as there is fabulous potential for operating it at a loss anyway.
Be A Perfectionst, You're Nothing If You're Just Another; Something Material, This Isn't Personal...
 
CXB77L
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 12:34 pm

Quoting francoflier (Reply 17):

777-X is pretty much a given at CX, given its commitment into the program already. I just can't see them cramming 420 seats in it, not in a 4 class cabin where they currently fit around 300 in the 77W. Even with 10 abreast eco.

CX's operating philosophy of maximizing yields and profits, at the expense of volume and possibly market shares, is pretty evident.

Agreed. With the imminent retirement of their 747-400s, CX may well be looking for an aircraft larger than the 777-300ER / A350-1000 to fill the void that is to be left by the 747-400. The 777-9X appears to be the perfect fit.

Quoting sassiciai (Reply 19):
I'm sure that CX is aware of the "halo effect" around the larger of the VLAs as reported by its operators, and that this keeps on drawing the punters to seek out that aircraft when possible, drawing them away from others

I am sure that they would have evaluated the aircraft, like any other reasonable airline would do. Evidently, CX have either yet to decide whether there is any benefit to them in ordering a 747-8i or A380-800; or decided that either, or both of those aircraft aren't suited to their present needs.

Any airline would be negligent in ordering an aircraf that's not suited to their needs only because of a subjective perception of a "halo effect". If CX are ever to order the A380, it will be because it suits them to do so, not because of some subjective "halo effect".

Quoting astuteman (Reply 31):
Doesn't that favour the A350 over the 777X then?

I think it would favour both of these large widebody twins over a quad. One of the reasons why I don't think we'll see CX order either the 747-8i or A380-800 is because they have a very substantial fleet of A350s and 777-300ERs either on order or currently in service, and if that article is any indication, they appear to be very interested in ordering the 777X as well.

The A380-900 is an entirely different kettle of fish, though. I think if Airbus were ever to release it, CX would be interested.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 38):
The current A380 is too small but also too big for CX.

  

Your post pretty much sums up the reasons why I don't think CX will order the A380-800, but that they could quite conceivably order the A380-900.
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commavia
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 12:43 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 41):
They only said "evaluating" not guranteed next one.

  

Although for all the reasons previously discussed in other threads, I think HKG-DFW makes total sense. One way or another, whether flown by AA or CX, that route should be able to succeed. It is certainly very long, but the right aircraft can cater to the enormous connectivity available between oneworld's single largest hub in the Americas and oneworld's single largest hub in the Pacific Rim.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 41):
Everyone thought their next would be HKG-DFW when they surprised people with HKG-EWR.
Quoting kaitak (Reply 43):
As A380787 mentions above, many (myself included) expected this instead of DFW.

Really? I must have missed that, since I remember EWR being fairly thoroughly discussed and very long rumored going back almost two years, and when the rumor popped up last month about a new U.S. destination, the discussion seemed to almost immediately center around two cities - neither of which was DFW - and opinion seemed to relatively quickly coalesce around EWR. I don't remember HKG-DFW ever being seriously discussed as CX's "next" U.S. destination until the publication of a CAPA article on 26 August (almost two weeks after the EWR announcement) that alluded to, "Cathay Pacific evaluating Dallas/Fort Worth service."
 
behramjee
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 12:43 pm

Quoting kaitak (Reply 43):
What about MAN.

MAN is a no brainer considering just the O&D demand between HKG and MAN alone over the past 12 months is 110,000 passengers! There is no way MAD and BCN can make more money for CX versus MAN.

Now as far as the African plans of LOS and ALG are concerned, currently the most dangerous city that CX operates to is Karachi, Pakistan and their crew do not overnight there. Instead they operate one set of crew BKK-KHI-BKK.

Lagos is a far more dangerous city than KHI especially after sunset (I know because I currently live in LOS and used to live in KHI) hence I do not for see CX operating nonstop flights from HKG to LOS due to the required overnight layover. I also do not see CX operating to LOS via DXB (like how CZ used to) as this too would require the crew to overnight in LOS.

The only way I can imagine CX operating to LOS is via NBO with one set of crew doing double duty shift operating NBO-LOS-NBO (5 hours flight each way). Due to the worsening economics of operating the A343 on long haul flights these days, if this plan did indeed come to fruit, it would happen only once the A359s start getting delivered and not anytime before.

FYI...for the past 12 months, the Nigeria-China (without HKG) total market size demand was approximately 90,000 passengers and HKG-LOS alone was approximately 15,000.
 
MaverickM11
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RE: CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo

Fri Sep 13, 2013 1:37 pm

Quoting behramjee (Reply 48):
FYI...for the past 12 months, the Nigeria-China (without HKG) total market size demand was approximately 90,000 passengers and HKG-LOS alone was approximately 15,000.

Yeah I'm not sure what they're thinking with LOS considering they're pretty much east of all the markets they'd connect any volume to...
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