Bogi
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A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 9:25 am

“As for double deckers, nothing is excluded, it’s more a question of whether or not on selected routes there’s a need for a double decker” says Toby Smith, Cathay Pacific’s General Manager, Product.

http://www.ausbt.com.au/airbus-a380-...thay-pacific-weighs-up-its-options
 
art
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 9:45 am

Quote:
“As for double deckers, nothing is excluded, it’s more a question of whether or not on selected routes there’s a need for a double decker” Smith tells Australian Business Traveller.

“For example, we now have four flights a day to Sydney. Would we go to five? Well actually we haven’t got any more rights – that’s still being looked at – so potentially that could be one market where you might see them, but it’s not on the horizon.”

Any order for either 748 or A380 is years away, it seems. And it sounds like CX is more interested in getting an extra slot at Sydney than using higher capacity aircraft.
 
AA737-823
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 9:56 am

I thought we decided a couple weeks ago that CX wasn't going to spring for either aircraft?
 
na
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 9:58 am

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 2):
I thought we decided a couple weeks ago that CX wasn't going to spring for either aircraft?

Tactics to get a better price I would say.
 
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zeke
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 10:21 am

Quoting art (Reply 1):

Operating a 744 today to SYD as 138.

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 2):

That was people putting words into Ivan's mouth. They have not ruled out anything, including the 787.
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NZ107
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 10:50 am

Quoting zeke (Reply 4):
Operating a 744 today to SYD as 138.

Yeah well that's surely got to be more to do with the typhoon than anything else (plus I feel for those in Y!). Although I'd love to see them start using the 77W to SYD to increase capacity. I partly expected them to be the launch customer for the 777X but LH beat them to that.
It's all about the destination AND the journey.
 
IndianicWorld
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 11:03 am

If SYD was doing that well for them, I would have expected larger aircraft by now. But hey, in future, at this rate many routes will need more capacity and given the impasse on building additional capacity in some cities, the only way will be larger aircraft.

Theres a few routes they could use larger aircraft on, but I guess its all up to what works.
 
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 11:13 am

Quoting zeke (Reply 4):
That was people putting words into Ivan's mouth.

In their defense, it's been pretty easy to get fooled by reading the not so subtle message between the lines.
CX has been pretty vocal about its passionate love for twins lately, and everything led to believe that they weren't interested at anything bigger and especially not with more engines.

Still, you'd have to be blind not to see a place for a VLA in CX.
The risk of operating a relatively small fleet could be easily hedged by the number of 2, 3, 4 or even 5 daily destinations they already operate.

Or could that be the proverbial foot in the door for the 748i interim lease rumor?
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 11:59 am

Cathay is facing an Aussie frequency probalem as they have a 70 flight limit per week. They are already at their 70 flight limit with A330 flying the routes. With 5 flights daily to London, 4 to JFK, 3 to LAX and 2 to SFO the question of bigger is arriving. Bigger may not be better but it may be inevitable.
 
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 12:06 pm

I also wonder if they're waiting for more data on the A380HGW. HKG-JFK is a long flight and it's crucial that they can fly fully loaded out of there. LHR, LAX and JFK are 3 routes which could utilise the A380. SYD could also be added to that but I think they would want to retain frequency rather than merging two flights into an A380.
It's all about the destination AND the journey.
 
kengo
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 12:11 pm

I have nothing against the A380 and I believe it's a fantastic plane. However, if and when CX decides to order VLA, my hope is for the 748i as having one more customer will ensure longer flying life for the Queen.
 
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 12:20 pm

Quoting Kengo (Reply 10):
I have nothing against the A380 and I believe it's a fantastic plane. However, if and when CX decides to order VLA, my hope is for the 748i as having one more customer will ensure longer flying life for the Queen.

Me too, though I think it is a VERY long shot...  
 
justloveplanes
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 12:31 pm

No 748i unfortunately I think (and I love the 747). I mean, with the 779, why? LH has gone 779 and they already own 748's. A380 has a meaningful capacity difference, so worth considering. I think they 779 is the end of the line for the Queen. The 77W was bad enough competition for the 748, the 779 means finito......
 
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 12:42 pm

Quoting Kengo (Reply 10):
I have nothing against the A380 and I believe it's a fantastic plane. However, if and when CX decides to order VLA, my hope is for the 748i as having one more customer will ensure longer flying life for the Queen.

I think Boeing has hit the final nail in the 748i coffin with the 777-9. The real choice is between more big twins or the A380, and so far it's the former that is winning.
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 1:23 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 8):
With 5 flights daily to London, 4 to JFK, 3 to LAX and 2 to SFO the question of bigger is arriving

You can add to your list 2 daily flights to CDG (CX 261/260 - CX 279/278).




Quoting francoflier (Reply 7):
Still, you'd have to be blind not to see a place for a VLA in CX.
The risk of operating a relatively small fleet could be easily hedged by the number of 2, 3, 4 or even 5 daily destinations they already operate.

  
 
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Stitch
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 1:44 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 8):
Cathay is facing an Aussie frequency probalem as they have a 70 flight limit per week. They are already at their 70 flight limit with A330 flying the routes.

The A350-1000 or 777-300ER would provide a significant capacity boost over the A330-300 on those frequencies. Heck, the A350-900 would increase Economy seating if that is where the demand is.



Quoting jfk777 (Reply 8):
With 5 flights daily to London, 4 to JFK, 3 to LAX and 2 to SFO the question of bigger is arriving.

And yet they've rolled back from the 747-400 to the smaller 777-300ER on most, if not all, of those frequencies.
 
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 1:47 pm

The VLA question a Cathay is one of being prudent. Thai and Malaysian purchased A380's to keep up with "Singapore Air". Cathay doesn't need to prove anything. The 77W hauls more frieght then an A380 could and maybe cargo is more important then an extra 150 passengers per flight. Even Air China has not purchased A380, they have a ton of 777's. IF the flagship China airline doesn't have A380's, should Cathay ?
 
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 1:49 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 16):
Even Air China has not purchased A380, they have a ton of 777's.

And five (soon to be seven) 747-8 Intercontinentals.
 
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 1:56 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 8):
Cathay is facing an Aussie frequency probalem as they have a 70 flight limit per week. They are already at their 70 flight limit with A330 flying the routes.

If they're capacity constrained why are they operating all flights on their smallest equipment?
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hiflyeras
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 2:01 pm

Quoting na (Reply 3):
Tactics to get a better price I would say.

IF they actually choose either one instead of a twin they're going to get a hell of a price. AB and BA are both desperate for sales of their VLA's. Myself I'm rooting for the 747-8i...would hate to see the 747 line come to an end.
 
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 2:06 pm

Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 19):
IF (CX) actually choose either one instead of a twin they're going to get a hell of a price. AB and BA are both desperate for sales of their VLA's.

I do not see Boeing offering CX a greater-than-50% discount on the 747-8 if they can secure a 777-9 order at a less-than-50% discount. Otherwise, I would have expected LH to exercise their 747-8 purchase rights as opposed to buying the 777-9.

IMO, the 747-8 was a bad idea and it's poor execution only made it worse. They should have just closed the line last decade and focused on the 777neo.
 
Nicoeddf
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 2:13 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 16):
Thai and Malaysian purchased A380's to keep up with "Singapore Air".

So your argument is to not do what the competitor does "just for the sake of it" when it comes to buying A380.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 16):
IF the flagship China airline doesn't have A380's, should Cathay ?

But when it comes to NOT buying the aircraft, it is relevant and justified to "just do what the competitor does"?

Interesting argumentation...  
 
na
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 2:20 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 20):
IMO, the 747-8 was a bad idea and it's poor execution only made it worse. They should have just closed the line last decade and focused on the 777neo.

From an economical standpoint the 748I might be flawed as Boeing and especially GE did a bad job (I´d have wished they would have done bad on the 77W and overdeliver on the 748i but that ship has sailed). From a passenger standpoint the 748I is a great plane and the 777-9X simply cant do better as the 748 interior architecture is superior than any 777 could ever be.
The freighter has its justification also in the long term. It has no competition. That it currently doesnt sell is due to the bad market, look at the 777F and A330F which are also selling badly.
 
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 2:29 pm

Quoting na (Reply 22):
That it currently doesnt sell is due to the bad market, look at the 777F and A330F which are also selling badly.

Boeing has sold nearly as many 777F as it has 763F and 744F/744ERF, despite the latter two models being on offer for far longer.

777F - 127 units (Launched 2005)
763F - 130 units (Launched 1993)
744F/744ERF - 126+40 = 166 units (Launched 1989/2001)

I'd say that's about as well as one would hope for a widebody freighter, especially given the market conditions you noted.
 
mercure1
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 2:33 pm

This seems to be a small repeat article of topic already well discussed.

Cathay Pacific COO: No VLA Needed (by LAXintl Jul 29 2013 in Civil Aviation)


Also last weeks 777X order pretty clearly points to where CX is going.
 
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Stitch
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 2:37 pm

Quoting na (Reply 22):
From a passenger standpoint the 748I is a great plane and the 777-9X simply cant do better as the 748 interior architecture is superior than any 777 could ever be.

I have found the 747 family to be far poorer in terms of internal cabin design compared to the 777. The 747-8 addresses that failing rather well thanks to the adoption of 787 design aesthetics, but the 777X will surely have those design aesthetics as well and therefore should execute them even better.



Quoting na (Reply 22):
The freighter has its justification also in the long term. It has no competition. That it currently doesnt sell is due to the bad market, look at the 777F and A330F which are also selling badly.

The trick is will that market recover sufficiently? More and more cargo is being moved by sea because the latest generation of cargo ships are getting faster and their ton-mile costs are significantly lower than air freight. And once Panama widens the locks, that is going to reduce transit times from Asia to Europe.

Based on comments to the media, Cathay Pacific is making use of the extra payload weight the 747-8F has and Cargolux is cubing out their 747-8Fs, so I can understand why CX swapped out their 777F order for more 747-8Fs and why Cargolux is an all-747 freighter operator.

But then you have customers like Emirates Sky Cargo, who first re-sold their 10 747-8F delivery positions to Dubai Aerospace Enterprises for lease-back on delivery and then subsequently cancelled those plans in favor of ordering the 777F, forcing DAE to cancel their order.

Singapore Airlines Cargo doesn't feel the extra performance of the 747-8F is of use to them and one wonders how long they'll operate an independent freighter fleet considering the belly space their 777s, A350s and 787s (will) offer.
 
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 2:39 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 16):
Even Air China has not purchased A380, they have a ton of 777's. IF the flagship China airline doesn't have A380's, should Cathay ?

Given the degree of "central" control of the Chinese airlines, that doesn't necessarily mean a whole lot. Whether they have, or want, a particular aircraft type is not under the full control of the management of the main Chinese airlines especially the "flagship".
 
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 2:43 pm

748i is definitely not out of the question. CX business decision might also hinge on the 748F factor as well. Is the 747 product dead with the 777-9??? Don't think so but maybe for 748i. In due time we will probably see a 747-9i (a likely remake of the 747-600X) and this commitment of sort will probably play a role into any airlines decision to buy into a so call 'dead product'. The 747 isn't dead yet as the aircraft's growth and maturity potential has not reach its limit.
 
na
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 2:44 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 25):
I have found the 747 family to be far poorer in terms of internal cabin design compared to the 777.

I am of a totally opposite opinion.

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 23):
777F - 127 units (Launched 2005)

The 748F was launched later and did sell similarly well, and one shouldnt forget the 777F covers a larger part of the market, while the 748F just covers the top.
 
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 2:48 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 25):
The 747-8 addresses that failing rather well thanks to the adoption of 787 design aesthetics, but the 777X will surely have those design aesthetics as well and therefore should execute them even better.

I think so too.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 25):
Based on comments to the media, Cathay Pacific is making use of the extra payload weight the 747-8F has and Cargolux is cubing out their 747-8Fs, so I can understand why CX swapped out their 777F order for more 747-8Fs and why Cargolux is an all-747 freighter operator.

Yes, it is all a matter of economics and operational issues.

I still think CX will in the end order A380's. Or maybe they are one of the first potential customers for an improved A380 which might see the light of day and could have an EIS around 2020-2022 or so.  .
 
tortugamon
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 2:57 pm

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 23):
777F - 127 units (Launched 2005)

Despite its impressive backlog I think only 5 have been delivered this year. That underpins customer's lack of current demand for freighters.

Quoting Triple Seven (Reply 27):
In due time we will probably see a 747-9i (a likely remake of the 747-600X) and this commitment of sort will probably play a role into any airlines decision to buy into a so call 'dead product'.

I cannot envision any environment where a further stretch of the 747 is likely. The head of the program stated a year or two ago that it is certainly possible and 'it needs to wait its turn' but I just do not see how that is possible when there is so little demand for this the -8i.

tortugamon
 
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 2:58 pm

Quoting Triple Seven (Reply 27):
In due time we will probably see a 747-9i (a likely remake of the 747-600X) and this commitment of sort will probably play a role into any airlines decision to buy into a so call 'dead product'.

  

At 76m, the 747-8 is at the lower end of Boeing's various extended-length 747 concepts (the 747-400X Stretch and the 747-500X were both 78m, the 747X Stretch was 79m and the 747-600X was 85m). And the original 747-8 was to be 74m. So Boeing clearly felt that 76m was the maximum they could take the airframe and longer lengths are not possible without major modification.

Besides, if Boeing did decide to push beyond 80m with the 747, Airbus would follow with the A380 and the 747-9 would be just as uncompetitive against the A380-900/A380-1000 as the 747-8 is today against the A380-800.



Quoting EPA001 (Reply 29):
I still think CX will in the end order A380's.

If they do not order the 777-9, I agree.
 
gegarrenton
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 3:00 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 25):
I have found the 747 family to be far poorer in terms of internal cabin design compared to the 777.

It's certainly subjective. I love the 747 inside, by far my favorite place on any plane is the nose of one.
 
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Stitch
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 3:05 pm

Quoting gegarrenton (Reply 32):
It's certainly subjective.

Yes it is (see below).  
Quoting gegarrenton (Reply 32):
I love the 747 inside, by far my favorite place on any plane is the nose of one.

See, I hate the nose. Since I am fortunate to fly First when I fly, I go out of my way to avoid booking 747s because I have to sit in the nose, though that policy does not apply to LH's 747-8s because they only put eight suites in there (so I do not feel claustrophobic) and the extra noise insulation they added makes it (subjectively) much more quiet.
 
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 3:11 pm

Quoting gegarrenton (Reply 32):
It's certainly subjective. I love the 747 inside, by far my favorite place on any plane is the nose of one.

I'm with you on that. Having been lucky enough to work for people who've been happy for me to travel up front, my favourite cabin has always been the 747 nose cabin (preferably seat 1A or 1K). So much more peaceful without the 'through traffic' that you get on every other aircraft.
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 3:24 pm

Quoting AirbusA6 (Reply 13):
I think Boeing has hit the final nail in the 748i coffin with the 777-9. The real choice is between more big twins or the A380, and so far it's the former that is winning.

I agree, however rather than see the nail in the 747-8i as an unintended action by idiots, I believe overlapping products in the short term (10 years) is an essential part of a long range marketing/production plan.
 
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 3:32 pm

777-9 is in Cathay's future ---

CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo (by LAXintl Sep 12 2013 in Civil Aviation)

CEO has now multiple times said the VLA is unlikely
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 3:38 pm

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 24):
This seems to be a small repeat article of topic already well discussed.

Indeed, I thought this horse has been beaten to death?

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 36):
CEO has now multiple times said the VLA is unlikely

But what a CEO says today can change tomorrow. Airlines re-evaluate their strategies from time to time.
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kengo
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 3:42 pm

Quoting Triple Seven (Reply 27):
Quoting Triple Seven (Reply 27):
In due time we will probably see a 747-9i (a likely remake of the 747-600X)

My first flight as a passenger was on a JAL 747-100 when I was 7 years old and to this day, I remember walking into the 747 with amaze in my eyes. It was truly something special and after 40 years, the 747 still impresses me the most among all commercial aircraft. The sky over Japan used be full of 747s and it was a moment to remember when JAL ended their last 747 passenger flight two years ago with service from HNL to NRT. I travel a lot to Hawaii for business and pleasure, and my choice has always been with flights served with 747s. Not sure how long CI, DL and UA will continue to serve HNL from NRT with their 747s but as long as they do, I'll fly with one of them until their last flight. I too wish to see the 747 continue as a 747-9i but like most here think, I too think that the 747 days with the current pax variant is numbered. The Queen has a good run over 40 years and I think she can rest in peace knowing she was loved by many.

[Edited 2013-09-23 08:48:58]
 
MaverickM11
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 3:55 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 37):

But what a CEO says today can change tomorrow. Airlines re-evaluate their strategies from time to time.

Anything is possible, but CX has said VLAs are unlikely several times this year alone. I really don't see a need for them in CX' network anyway, other than *maybe possibly* 1-2 destinations, and that's hardly a good business case for a small subfleet of new planes.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 20):
IMO, the 747-8 was a bad idea and it's poor execution only made it worse. They should have just closed the line last decade and focused on the 777neo.

   I suppose it killed the 380F, but judging from the combined pax/cargo sales of the 380/748, that's not much of a win.
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Stitch
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 3:59 pm

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 39):
I suppose it killed the 380F, but judging from the combined pax/cargo sales of the 380/748, that's not much of a win.

The A380-800F was a non-starter, IMO, so I view the 747-8F as a wasted effort.
 
kaitak
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 4:35 pm

The only way I could see the 747-8 coming into CX's passenger fleet would be where CX finds that it needs a capacity bridge for the six years until the 779 enters pax service; in that case, perhaps Boeing would offer CX the 748i for a lease of 6-8 years.

It really is a pretty slim chance, but given that CX already has 748Fs, it might be a possibility.

If not with CX, might it work with other carriers? The aircraft could then be converted to freighters, although given the generally unsatisfactory reception of the 744BCF (with CX, for one), the attractiveness of this option might not be great.

There's very little difference in size between the 748i and 779, so it could work as a good "bridge" until the 779 is available.

The question for Boeing is: would this be worth its while, particularly if - as seems evident - CX is happy enough to use 77Ws as a 744 replacement. They could be left with several barely used 748s which might not be economical to convert to freighters (due to lack of market interest) and being part of a wider deal, they would sold at a very considerable loss. There comes a point when Boeing has to say "let's kill this thing before it loses us any more money".

On a side note, has anyone seen any evidence that Boeing has taken on board comments regarding the 777's cabin noise; is it likely to incorporate improvements into the 778/9 to address this?
 
avek00
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 4:38 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 8):
They are already at their 70 flight limit with A330 flying the routes. With

The key word is A330. If Cathay was truly hurting for capacity to Australia, they'd deploy more 777s.
Live life to the fullest.
 
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 4:39 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 25):
the latest generation of cargo ships are getting faster

The trend has turned and the latest ships are built to go slower and the existing ships are typically running slower than they used to.
Don’t repeat earlier generations mistakes. Learn history for a better future.
 
gegarrenton
Posts: 203
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 4:42 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 33):
See, I hate the nose. Since I am fortunate to fly First when I fly, I go out of my way to avoid booking 747s because I have to sit in the nose, though that policy does not apply to LH's 747-8s because they only put eight suites in there (so I do not feel claustrophobic) and the extra noise insulation they added makes it (subjectively) much more quiet.

 

I love it mainly because there is zero pass through traffic (which is really the major reason), and in row 1 you can watch the entire landing pattern because of the curvature of the fuselage. I would say 1K on a CX 744 is probably my al time favorite seat in any plane in history.

Edit: Speedbored beat me to it!

Quoting Speedbored (Reply 34):
I'm with you on that. Having been lucky enough to work for people who've been happy for me to travel up front, my favourite cabin has always been the 747 nose cabin (preferably seat 1A or 1K). So much more peaceful without the 'through traffic' that you get on every other aircraft.


[Edited 2013-09-23 09:46:00]
 
pnwtraveler
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 5:48 pm

Companies exist to make money. Therefore it is better to sell seats at the highest possible amount and then when you have to, sell lower priced seats. Ignoring that customers will migrate to other suppliers, it is most profitable to sell out aircraft to 100% then to add too many seats and have to then sell them at a much lower amount with very little profit. The spread between expense and profit is very important. Making more money at a very low margin between expense and proift is very risky.

So as has been said above in the example of Sydney, that CX can upgrade the A330 to B77Ws now, and later to the A350 or 778/9 and add considerable numbers of seats, long before needing a VLA, either 748 or even more so the A380. And if there is an economic downturn/sars/terrorist attack, it would be much cheaper to redeploy the smaller aircraft, or even park them for a period, than redeploy an A380 ineffectively, or even park an A380. Failure to consider that risk differentiates the aviation enthusiast who wants to see their favourite plane everywhere, rather than a prudent business mind that takes all factors into effect.

Many airlines went out of business in the last waves of downturns, because they improperly planned that everything won't be all growth. Mergers have happened in part because there was a mass oversupply of seats. Beyond this there obviously is a lot more to the equation, but aviation enthusiasts totally misread marketing and consumer purchasing habits, and totally overplay the idea that whatever the competition has you have to have as well in their lust for VLA's. Airlines with the largest profit to expense ration will fare the best and be able to weather storms better.

Somehow all these proven principles of business go by the wayside and Anetters think CX is nuts for not jumping to add a VLA. Rather I think it says a lot that CX is holding off the "keeping up with Jones" trap. Good on them. If Anetters ran amock at the airlines the mass trauma during the next downturn would be quite something to witness.
 
jfk777
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 5:50 pm

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 18):
If they're capacity constrained why are they operating all flights on their smallest equipment?

Cathay's options are A330 or 777. They have some 744 which are being phased out. The A333 may be their smallest plane but it doesn't have First Class and seats 242 passengers.
 
einsteinboricua
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 6:18 pm

If a VLA is ordered, this one will definitely be Airbus's to lose, but only a small subfleet. I don't see over 10 of either being ordered.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
cmf
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RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 7:15 pm

Quoting pnwtraveler (Reply 45):
Therefore it is better to sell seats at the highest possible amount and then when you have to, sell lower priced seats. Ignoring that customers will migrate to other suppliers, it is most profitable to sell out aircraft to 100% then to add too many seats and have to then sell them at a much lower amount with very little profit. The spread between expense and profit is very important. Making more money at a very low margin between expense and proift is very risky.

Many successful companies disagree. Look at Walmart, look at McDonalds, look at Aldi in Germany. Ryanair is a great example in aviation.

Quoting pnwtraveler (Reply 45):
Airlines with the largest profit to expense ration will fare the best and be able to weather storms better.

There is a lot more to weathering storms. Operating profit certainly makes life easier but you need a lot more than that. I don't know why people insist on breaking things down to so few components it actually becomes bad rules.
Don’t repeat earlier generations mistakes. Learn history for a better future.
 
gegarrenton
Posts: 203
Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2012 3:32 pm

RE: A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options

Mon Sep 23, 2013 7:18 pm

Quoting cmf (Reply 48):
Many successful companies disagree. Look at Walmart, look at McDonalds, look at Aldi in Germany.

There is virtually no parallel between these companies and airlines. These companies operate that way due to gigantic scale that no airline could ever achieve.

The Ryanair example is more apt, but they run a significantly different business model.

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