Unflug
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Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013-2032

Tue Sep 24, 2013 10:50 am

Airbus has released an updated GMF for the next 20 years. Didn't find any revolutionary changes in their expectations on first glance.

The most controversial part will probably be the VLA expectations. They expect 1.349 VLA aircraft in the next 20 years - this does not include the big twins. I think about 50% (just a guess, not part of the GMF) of that market would put the A380 into the "healthy program" region. While the share in fact might be higher with the possible demise of the 748, the opinions about the total number will differ. Note that they expect 47% of these to be sold in the Asia-Pacific region, followed by the Middle East (26%) and then Europe (16%). No big expectations for the US market regarding VLA, I think this matches the majority view here on anet.

Press release:

http://www.airbus.com/no_cache/newse...raft-required-in-the-next-20-years

Detailed section on website:

http://www.airbus.com/company/market/gmf2013/
 
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EPA001
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RE: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013-2032

Tue Sep 24, 2013 11:49 am

Quoting Unflug (Thread starter):

Airbus has released an updated GMF for the next 20 years. Didn't find any revolutionary changes in their expectations on first glance.

Thanks for posting this. Very interesting. Now let's hope their forecasts will become a reality.

Are there evaluations available on older market forecasts? Say, like a forecast released in 1993 of how the development of the civilian airliner market would go until 2013. We now can see with hindsight how correct these forecasts (from Airbus and Boeing) were at the time. That might tell us something about the possible reality on the projected numbers for the latest forecast.
 
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RE: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013-2032

Tue Sep 24, 2013 12:21 pm

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 1):
Are there evaluations available on older market forecasts? Say, like a forecast released in 1993 of how the development of the civilian airliner market would go until 2013.

2010: http://www.eads.com/dms/eads/int/en/...us_Global_Market_Forecast_2010.pdf

Didn't find earlier versions on the Airbus website, but the waybackmachine helps - here you have 1997-2016:

http://web.archive.org/web/199705200...//www.airbus.com/gmf97/gmf1997.pdf
 
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RE: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013-2032

Tue Sep 24, 2013 12:23 pm

I have seen Boeing presentations with evaluations of past forecasts. Both manufacturers regularly underestimated demand for single aisle aircraft and overestimated demand for VLA. I haven't seen the comparisons published.
 
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RE: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013-2032

Tue Sep 24, 2013 1:30 pm

Quoting Unflug (Reply 2):
Didn't find earlier versions on the Airbus website, but the waybackmachine helps - here you have 1997-2016:

Thanks.  
 
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RE: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013-2032

Tue Sep 24, 2013 4:39 pm

While I do believe Boeing's forecast for VLA market is more realistic, with launch of 777X imminent, I expect for A380 to take the vast majority of that cake, unfortunately...

...I say "unfortunately", because I am not a fan of either 747 or A380.
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RE: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013-2032

Tue Sep 24, 2013 8:01 pm

Not much has changed since last year so it seems.

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 5):
While I do believe Boeing's forecast for VLA market is more realistic

Beware, Airbus forecast is with freighters included while Boeing's forecast is without.
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RE: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013-2032

Thu Sep 26, 2013 4:59 am

Quoting Unflug (Thread starter):
The most controversial part will probably be the VLA expectations. They expect 1.349 VLA aircraft in the next 20 years - this does not include the big twins. I think about 50% (just a guess, not part of the GMF) of that market would put the A380 into the "healthy program" region. While the share in fact might be higher with the possible demise of the 748, the opinions about the total number will differ. Note that they expect 47% of these to be sold in the Asia-Pacific region, followed by the Middle East (26%) and then Europe (16%). No big expectations for the US market regarding VLA, I think this matches the majority view here on anet.

The VLA estimates have been dramatically wrong to justify continued investment in VLAs by both carriers. This isn't a particularly surprising forecast in that light. I would say that the 77X would steal the air from under the A380s wings, but frankly, there isn't much there to begin with.
 
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RE: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013-2032

Thu Sep 26, 2013 10:34 pm

Quoting airfrnt (Reply 7):
The VLA estimates have been dramatically wrong to justify continued investment in VLAs by both

I believe that both Boeing and Airbus uses different definitions for VLA. I can't access the official Airbus document from my mobile device. Do You have the official Airbus definition at hand by any chance? Much appreciated!

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RE: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013-2032

Fri Sep 27, 2013 5:16 am

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 6):
Beware, Airbus forecast is with freighters included while Boeing's forecast is without.

As I said before - with 777-9X launched, the only orders for 747-8i will come from those, who will not be able to wait until after 2020 for 400-seater.

A380 will hold up a little longer due to it's larger capacity, however, I do not expect it to sell more than 350 - 400 frames during its entire lifespan.
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RE: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013-2032

Fri Sep 27, 2013 7:41 am

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 9):
As I said before - with 777-9X launched, the only orders for 747-8i will come from those, who will not be able to wait until after 2020 for 400-seater.

Boeing doesn't see it that way, they have put the 777X in the large wide-body jet section, which has a forecast of 3,300 airplanes in the next 20 years.
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RE: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013-2032

Fri Sep 27, 2013 8:17 am

Of course Boeing won't see it that way - they want to promote 747 while they still can, but it is the market that will ultimately decide its fate.

The writing's on the wall, no matter what Randy, Boeing, or their GMO is saying. Same for A380.

[Edited 2013-09-27 01:18:40]
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RE: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013-2032

Fri Sep 27, 2013 8:38 am

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 9):
A380 will hold up a little longer due to it's larger capacity, however, I do not expect it to sell more than 350 - 400 frames during its entire lifespan.

I think that's far too pessimistic. I'm confident that most of the A380's already delivered and to be delivered in the next 5 years will not be replaced by any smaller aircraft at the end of their service life.
 
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RE: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013-2032

Fri Sep 27, 2013 11:00 am

Quoting Unflug (Thread starter):
They expect 1.349 VLA aircraft in the next 20 years - this does not include the big twins.

Looking at their documents I think it does : it can be A380s, 747s and also some versions of the A350 & 777.
It's not the module size which count but the seat capacity. "Very Large Aircraft" is a bit confusing.
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RE: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013-2032

Fri Sep 27, 2013 12:14 pm

Quoting Aither (Reply 13):
Looking at their documents I think it does : it can be A380s, 747s and also some versions of the A350 & 777.

Don't think so - look at page 31 of this document:

http://www.airbus.com/company/market...?eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=33621

or at page 28 of this document:

http://www.airbus.com/company/market...?eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=33621
 
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RE: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013-2032

Fri Sep 27, 2013 12:31 pm

Quoting Aither (Reply 13):
"Very Large Aircraft" is a bit confusing.

I think that's an excellent comment, Aither. Up to now it has meant 'jumbo' - A380 or B748. Now, given that twins like the 777 are already able to carry over 400 passengers, the distinction is sort of 'old-fashioned.'

Reckon myself that both the 'big fours' will build and deliver their respective backlogs, and that the B748 freighter may go on doing a small amount of business for a while (given that there are some things that no other aeroplane can carry/fit in).

But that the future very much belongs to the 400-passenger-plus 'big twins' - the 777X and the A350-1100; as soon as the two main firms can develop and deliver them.
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RE: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013-2032

Sat Sep 28, 2013 8:57 am

from http://theblogbyjavier.com/



I don't understand how Boeing are downplaying the fact that average aircraft size must rise.

Airbus are saying average size will increase by 25% in 20 years, if you look at B's numbers in detail they expect RPKs to grow at 5% per year ie to increase to 265% of current, they expect fleet to grow by 3.6 percent per year i.e. 202% of current.

That means to me size must grow by around 265/202 ie 30% growth in size*
(*unless load factors or aircraft utilization are going to increase)

This to me implies that there is some iffy statistics going on,

I assume one factor is the use of the term average, 2 ways that plane size could be computed:-
calculated by equally weighting each plane
calculated by equally weighting each passenger RPK

then obviously RPK data will be biased towards comercial long-haul which is larger planes!

Interesting back in 1990 B gave this forecast:-

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RE: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013-2032

Sat Sep 28, 2013 9:35 am

Quoting Jambrain (Reply 16):
then obviously RPK data will be biased towards comercial long-haul which is larger planes!

Can't hope to answer your contentions, Jambrain, because I haven't the faintest idea what 'RPK' stands for!

Share your interest in cricket though!
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RE: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013-2032

Sat Sep 28, 2013 10:03 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 17):
'RPK'

revenue passenger kilometers
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revenue_passenger_mile  
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RE: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013-2032

Sat Sep 28, 2013 10:52 am

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 6):
Beware, Airbus forecast is with freighters included while Boeing's forecast is without.

In this picture are not included freighter.
http://img547.imageshack.us/img547/346/7bo2.jpg
 
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RE: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013-2032

Sat Sep 28, 2013 10:55 am

Quoting Bogi (Reply 19):
In this picture are not included freighter.

This chart is not about the 20 years forecast numbers..
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RE: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013-2032

Sat Sep 28, 2013 11:02 am

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 20):

This chart is not about the 20 years forecast numbers..

This chart is from the Presentation of Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013-2032.
 
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RE: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013-2032

Sat Sep 28, 2013 11:07 am

Quoting Bogi (Reply 21):
This chart is from the Presentation of Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013-2032.

Yes but it only shows the current A380 and 748 orders, the chart itself doesn't tell anything about the forecast for 2013-2032. The forecast numbers which you can find in the beginning of the presentation are with freighters included.
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RE: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013-2032

Sat Sep 28, 2013 11:08 am

Quoting Bogi (Reply 21):
This chart is from the Presentation of Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013-2032.

How CAN it be, Bogi mate? Given that it finishes in 2012?
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RE: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013-2032

Sat Sep 28, 2013 11:15 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 23):
How CAN it be, Bogi mate? Given that it finishes in 2012?

Ask Airbus.
 
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RE: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013-2032

Sat Sep 28, 2013 4:43 pm

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 9):
As I said before - with 777-9X launched, the only orders for 747-8i will come from those, who will not be able to wait until after 2020 for 400-seater.

A380 will hold up a little longer due to it's larger capacity, however, I do not expect it to sell more than 350 - 400 frames during its entire lifespan.

I can see the 777-9X wiping out the 748i but I don't see it taking all A380 sales. I don't understand why you think the "A380 will hold up a little longer due to its larger capacity".

Only another 100-150 sales for the A380 in your view. So you think existing A380 carriers will downsize to A351/ 777-9X when it comes to ordering replacements? I don't see why an operator achieving high load factors on A380 in 2013 would want to downsize when ordering new metal during whose lifetime traffic is likely to increase by two thirds or more.
 
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RE: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013-2032

Mon Sep 30, 2013 7:39 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 23):
How CAN it be, Bogi mate? Given that it finishes in 2012?
Quoting Bogi (Reply 24):
Ask Airbus.

Or look at the presentation. Why should it be forbidden to have a chart on current orders in a presentation, even if that presentations is about future orders? What's so difficult to understand here?

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 22):
Yes but it only shows the current A380 and 748 orders, the chart itself doesn't tell anything about the forecast for 2013-2032. The forecast numbers which you can find in the beginning of the presentation are with freighters included.

Exactly.

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