aircanadaa330
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Competing With DXB

Wed Sep 25, 2013 11:14 pm

Hi everyone,

I got thinking after reading the thread regarding why EK is wide body only. It was mentioned that Dubai does not have a large O&D. With that, EK is a huge airline, and growing larger everyday. They primarily rely on pax transferring much like a global hub. In the past, it was noted that Ethiopian Airlines is looking to compete with EK as a global hub.

With all that in mind, I started to think. Is it possible for any airline/airport to grow to rival EK? Take a small airline in Africa or Central Asia, and have them start connecting flights between Asia/Europe/Australia. I am not suggesting an airline with 90 A380s on order, but with the 767/787/A330 families. Would it not be possible to be profitable?

I know that with enough money anything is possible, but I am talking about an airline being profitable.

what are your thoughts?


Cheers;
Cheers;
 
jfk777
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RE: Competing With DXB

Thu Sep 26, 2013 12:03 am

In theory a India could since in the middle of the world between Europe and Asia. But Africa is too far south to be a competitive connecting point between the two, Kenya or Ethiopia are. Istanbul and Turkish Air are are trying to do a "Dubai" in Istanbul and to a degree they may succeded, but the airport is bursting at the seams.

In 25 years, if Africa's economic promise is finally realized to some degree with oil and mineral wealth, Kenya Airways & Ethiopian Air could have tripple the planes they have today. Kenya Air has a decent fleet of 777, including 77W's, and flies to China. Ethiopian is flying to the PRC and Brazil plus Toronto and Washington, so they have an anchor in all parts of the world. Ethiopian can't be too far from flying to Australia, Perth should be possible from Addis Abbaba.

I am sadened that Gulf Air, which was the main airline for the UAE and Bahrain, has been left behind when it was the airline with a huge history in that part of the world. Love those L-1011's in the 1970's, sorry I never got on one.
 
alfa164
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RE: Competing With DXB

Thu Sep 26, 2013 1:40 am

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 1):
In theory a India could since in the middle of the world between Europe and Asia.

As long as India requires a visa for anyone who needs to transit that country, its airlines will be at a tremendous disadvantage in the world market. It is effectively limiting itself to O&D traffic.
 
opethfan
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RE: Competing With DXB

Thu Sep 26, 2013 1:44 am

I suppose that HNL is located as such to be a convenient halfway point between North America and Asia, allowing it to be a hub connecting mid sized cities on both sides of the Pacific which otherwise wouldn't have international TPAC service.

But it hasn't happened as such, so I guess it isn't viable.
 
AyostoLeon
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RE: Competing With DXB

Thu Sep 26, 2013 2:15 am

An airline that set itself the goal of being a serious contender is Qatar Airways. Based in Doha the airline enjoys similar geographic location advantages to Dubai. It too has been expanding at a fair rate in recent years, serving 128 destinations, and has quite a few aircraft of various types on order. What's more they will benefit from the construction of the new international airport.

How profitable QR is I can't say.
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aerorobnz
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RE: Competing With DXB

Thu Sep 26, 2013 2:16 am

Believe it or not, Athens would be great. Maybe a way of reviving the greek economy?

Quoting opethfan (Reply 3):
I suppose that HNL is located as such to be a convenient halfway point between North America and Asia

and doable Australia-Europe, Asia-South America. Only Africa misses out on direct capability.

AKL by the same regard can do South Africa,Asia, North and South America with direct services.

I think PTY would be a great hub for the world. Only Asia would require a multi-stop. CM should get some long-range jets... 

And if we're thinking of off the wall hubs. how about HRE or FIH? They could work with aircraft in the 7200nm-8000nm range. FIH looks kick arse. Not much of the habitated world unobtainable except the Pacific ocean.
Flown to 120 Airports in 44 Countries on 73 Operators. Visited 55 Countries and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
Spiderguy252
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RE: Competing With DXB

Thu Sep 26, 2013 4:35 am

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 1):
In theory a India could since in the middle of the world between Europe and Asia.

It's not competing with DXB (and you can say that again), but a sizeable chunk of travellers do stop by BOM to travel onward to BKK by 9W, or at DEL to travel to other Indian cities on the AI connectors, or the new 787 flight to SYD. It's obviously a far smaller number than anything at DXB, but it appears to be encouraging signs at this point.
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aerorobnz
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RE: Competing With DXB

Thu Sep 26, 2013 6:13 am

Quoting AyostoLeon (Reply 4):
How profitable QR is I can't say.

The new airport is vital for them now. DOH is curently hopeless as an airport. Their profits will soar once they shift
Flown to 120 Airports in 44 Countries on 73 Operators. Visited 55 Countries and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
PITrules
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RE: Competing With DXB

Thu Sep 26, 2013 2:37 pm

Quoting AircanadaA330 (Thread starter):
I got thinking after reading the thread regarding why EK is wide body only. It was mentioned that Dubai does not have a large O&D.

This was debunked in that very thread, as it has in others.
DXB - July Traffic Data, Some Interesting Facts (by factsonly Sep 1 2013 in Civil Aviation)
FLYi
 
jox
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RE: Competing With DXB

Thu Sep 26, 2013 2:53 pm

Location isn't everything. Even if LLA has 3300 m runway (cold-and-low), good weather, and you can reach more or less the whole populated globe within 7500 nm (SE Australia is some 8200 nm away) - There aren't 40 A380s lined up here. http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?R=7500nm%40lla . I guess just the thought of creating a "world hub" in the middle of nowhere is discouraging.
 
Centre
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RE: Competing With DXB

Thu Sep 26, 2013 4:57 pm

The only real competition will be TLV  http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?R=8000nm%40TLV

[Edited 2013-09-26 10:09:43]
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airbazar
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RE: Competing With DXB

Thu Sep 26, 2013 5:45 pm

Quoting AircanadaA330 (Thread starter):
With all that in mind, I started to think. Is it possible for any airline/airport to grow to rival EK?

Humm, many airlines and hubs already rival DXB and EK so I don't quite get your question. DXB and EK are neither the largest hub in the world nor the largest airline in the world.
 
a380787
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RE: Competing With DXB

Thu Sep 26, 2013 6:27 pm

Can we dispel the myth that TK is mirroring what EK is doing ?

1. EK can nonstop to anywhere in Australia. For TK, the only large city that's less than 8500mi is PER
2. EK has tons of connections to India. TK barely has a handful of frequencies.
3. TK has a much larger home market (IST plus rest of Turkey)
4. TK connects to far more smaller destinations due to NB fleet and Star Alliance connections.
5. IST can reach places like MEX/SCL with ease. From DXB, you'll need ULH aircraft and payload-limited.
6. TK actually flies into Israel
7. Finally, DXB and IST are 1870mi apart. Saying they compete is similar to saying DEN and JFK are fighting for the same traffic flow.

If LH ever invites EK to Star Alliance, I doubt TK will object all that much.
 
airbazar
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RE: Competing With DXB

Thu Sep 26, 2013 7:39 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 12):

If LH ever invites EK to Star Alliance, I doubt TK will object all that much.

Personally I think that would be dumb of LH. TK is a far more valuable carrier than EK will ever be. EK's business is 100% dependent on connecting traffic which is basically traffic that is not theirs to begin with. This has worked out well up until now but it's a dangerous strategy as a long term business model, in my opinion. So many things can change in the world in the blink of an eye that would cause EK to crumble. Something as basic as India having a hissy fit and altering the provisions of the bilateral with the UAE for example, or some terrorist attack in Dubai similar to what we just saw in Nairobi this past week.
 
747megatop
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RE: Competing With DXB

Thu Sep 26, 2013 8:42 pm

India can be a serious "potential" competitor to the MEB3 carriers & hubs. But again, this is only a "potential" competitor on paper till India gets it's act together. This was extensively discussed in another thread about a couple of months ago

- India Aviation-Unfortunate Lost Revenues (by flyenthu Jul 23 2013 in Civil Aviation)?threadid=5826099&searchid=5826415&s=India+Aviation+Unfortunate+Lost+Revenues#ID5826415

For any hub to come close to what DXB has achieved; there has to be a great vision, planning, execution and strong political will. So far all of this happens to be there only in DXB and is pretty much unmatched by any other airport in the region.
 
incitatus
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RE: Competing With DXB

Thu Sep 26, 2013 9:41 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 12):
7. Finally, DXB and IST are 1870mi apart. Saying they compete is similar to saying DEN and JFK are fighting for the same traffic flow.


Oh yes, TK and EK compete for a lot of the same flows. Actually, LH and EK also compete for a lot of the same flows between North America / Europe and Middle East / South/Southeast Asia. DEN and JFK compete less because DEN is limited in long-haul service and JFK is limited in domestic service. DEN and PHL compete a lot more.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 12):
If LH ever invites EK to Star Alliance, I doubt TK will object all that much.


It is EK that might find LH and TK unattractive partners.
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a380787
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RE: Competing With DXB

Thu Sep 26, 2013 9:50 pm

Quoting incitatus (Reply 15):
Actually, LH and EK also compete for a lot of the same flows between North America / Europe and Middle East / South/Southeast Asia

That's a small portion of overall traffic flows, esp for LH. Too many markets involve backtracking to consider those to be close competitors (or EK vs TK for that matter)

EK is mostly long-haul to long-haul connections. I'd guess that LH is more long-haul to intra-Europe type connections. LH can technically sell me a BOG-FRA-PVG ticket but not sure if they're really interested in that.
 
Viscount724
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RE: Competing With DXB

Thu Sep 26, 2013 10:00 pm

Quoting opethfan (Reply 3):
I suppose that HNL is located as such to be a convenient halfway point between North America and Asia, allowing it to be a hub connecting mid sized cities on both sides of the Pacific which otherwise wouldn't have international TPAC service.

HNL is not conveniently located to servce as a hub between North America and Asia. It's much too far south. Routing via HNL often means flying more than 1,000 miles further than necessary. The days of HNL being a major intermediate point on Asian routes (and to the South Pacific) ended once aircraft had the range to do it nonstop. And many preferred to make a fuel stop at ANC on routes to Asia since it's much shorter.
 
jfk777
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RE: Competing With DXB

Thu Sep 26, 2013 10:30 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 12):
7. Finally, DXB and IST are 1870mi apart. Saying they compete is similar to saying DEN and JFK are fighting for the same traffic flow

While New York and Denver are about 1600 miles apart what does that have to do with Istanbul and Dubai ? Istanbul is at the east end of Europe and can connect tons of cities within 3000 miles with 737's and A320. Emirates could have 737 and fly to all kinds of cities within 6 hours range in east Africa, the Middle East and India if it wanted to. While Turkish would be challenged to make Sydney and Melbourne nonstop, that is about the only place a 777 can't get to nonstop.

Istanbul can connect anything from Japan to Africa as Dubai can. Emirates covers the Americas better then Turkish and if the only plane they can use is a 777-200LR, I an't felling sorry for Emirates.
 
L0VE2FLY
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RE: Competing With DXB

Thu Sep 26, 2013 11:51 pm

There's a lot of Asian airlines that could compete with DXB, AUH & DOH on Europe-Australasia, Africa-Australasia traffic, however, most of them lack the competent management and funds to become major global players.



Quoting alfa164 (Reply 2):
As long as India requires a visa for anyone who needs to transit that country, its airlines will be at a tremendous disadvantage in the world market. It is effectively limiting itself to O&D traffic.

That's one of the reasons their airlines are in trouble, with visa waiver for Westerners, good product and flight timings Indian airlines could become big players on the Kangaroo Route.



Quoting aerorobnz (Reply 5):
Believe it or not, Athens would be great. Maybe a way of reviving the greek economy?

The Greeks don't have to look too far to realize that it's possible to have a highly successful airline in their part of the world. The difference between the Greek and Turkish airline industries' success is astounding to say the least.



Quoting airbazar (Reply 11):
Humm, many airlines and hubs already rival DXB and EK so I don't quite get your question. DXB and EK are neither the largest hub in the world nor the largest airline in the world.

Their plan is to become the world's largest international hub & airline in the not so distant future.



Quoting 747megatop (Reply 14):
For any hub to come close to what DXB has achieved; there has to be a great vision, planning, execution and strong political will. So far all of this happens to be there only in DXB and is pretty much unmatched by any other airport in the region.

TK is doing very well despite the fact that Turkey is far less wealthy than the UAE.
 
a380787
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RE: Competing With DXB

Fri Sep 27, 2013 12:01 am

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 18):
Emirates could have 737 and fly to all kinds of cities within 6 hours range in east Africa, the Middle East and India if it wanted to.

You're making assumptions on fleet changes. "IF" TK bought 77L they could do SYD too, but that's all hypothetical.

Taking your examples, CDG-IST-ADD versus CDG-DXB-ADD is 1200mi shorter via IST. Or CDG-AMM. Via Istanbul is 2145mi but via Dubai is 4517mi.

Their route networks have *some* overlap but their priorities are clearly different. QR, on the other hand, is definitely mimicking everything EK is doing, plus global alliance.
 
incitatus
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RE: Competing With DXB

Fri Sep 27, 2013 2:50 am

Quoting a380787 (Reply 16):
That's a small portion of overall traffic flows, esp for LH. Too many markets involve backtracking to consider those to be close competitors (or EK vs TK for that matter)

You might want to reflect on your arguments. You highlight the fact that SYD/MEL/BNE are too far for TK's current fleet, but then for LH flows between US/Europe and Middle East / India / SE Asia are "a small portion of overall traffic flows". We are talking about US/Europe which is pretty much half of the World's GDP. Then Middle East, India and SE Asia a huge growing market. Connections from US and Europe are hugely important for LH's network beyond Turkey, where it overlaps with EK.

Currently TK's location is more attractive to connections than EK's, because it is closer to richer Europe making it convenient to big markets for which DXB is out of the way. If emerging markets continue growing, then the geography advantage of TK should vanish.

Business partnerships have to show advantages for both sides. Partnering with LH is in general an uphill struggle. TK will be a direct competitor to EK in many markets. There is not much in Star for EK.
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747megatop
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RE: Competing With DXB

Fri Sep 27, 2013 4:45 am

Quoting L0VE2FLY (Reply 19):
That's one of the reasons their airlines are in trouble, with visa waiver for Westerners, good product and flight timings Indian airlines could become big players on the Kangaroo Route.

The biggest key word is COULD. That i guarantee 98% that it won't happen because of a lack of vision. DXB is quite safe from competition and needs to worry just about AUH in the region.
 
airbazar
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RE: Competing With DXB

Fri Sep 27, 2013 11:58 am

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 17):
The days of HNL being a major intermediate point on Asian routes (and to the South Pacific) ended once aircraft had the range to do it nonstop. And many preferred to make a fuel stop at ANC on routes to Asia since it's much shorter.

The days ended because there wasn't an airline with the vision or financial ability to do it. SIN is a pretty crappy location for an Asian hub and somehow they make it work. So is DXB for a lot of the connections they offer. Tons of people are flying between Europe and Asia, including China, via DXB and SIN. That's a far bigger detour than HNL is.

Quoting L0VE2FLY (Reply 19):
Their plan is to become the world's largest international hub & airline in the not so distant future.

That's their plan but I don't believe it will happen. Too many things have to go EK's way in order for that to happen, starting with the other global carriers doing absolutely nothing while watching EK eat their breakfast. Also of some importance, Dubai Inc. has just about run out of money which is why DWC which was initially planned to open in 2017 is now posponed to 2027. In the mean time, DXB is running out of slots and EK is having to cancel flights because of it. Personally, I'll believe it when I see it.
 
a380787
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RE: Competing With DXB

Fri Sep 27, 2013 12:19 pm

Quoting incitatus (Reply 21):
but then for LH flows between US/Europe and Middle East / India / SE Asia are "a small portion of overall traffic flows". We are talking about US/Europe which is pretty much half of the World's GDP. Then Middle East, India and SE Asia a huge growing market. Connections from US and Europe are hugely important for LH's network beyond Turkey, where it overlaps with EK.

does US to India/ME account for more than 20% of LH's total traffic ? Or even more than 10% for that matter ? If not, then it's a small portion.

Look at LH's network : BAH is tag-on, MCT is tag-on, none in Pakistani/SriLanka/Bangladesh, only 5 destinations in India. Doesn't sound like much coverage beyond a few strategic destinations (e.g. Riyadh, TLV, AUH, BOM etc)

And DXB is a so-so location for most US/Europe to middle east destinations. Take FRA-AMM. Going via DXB is more than double the distance (1894mi vs. 4271mi). If EK is "competing" with that type of segment length disadvantage, I won't be too concerned if I were LH.

[Edited 2013-09-27 05:28:09]
 
a380787
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RE: Competing With DXB

Fri Sep 27, 2013 12:35 pm

Quoting incitatus (Reply 21):
Business partnerships have to show advantages for both sides. Partnering with LH is in general an uphill struggle. TK will be a direct competitor to EK in many markets. There is not much in Star for EK.

BA is much more dependent on South Asian traffic, and yet they've welcomed QR when RJ is not too far away. Explain how BA+QR is beneficial but LH+EK is detrimental ?
 
aircanadaa330
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RE: Competing With DXB

Fri Sep 27, 2013 4:24 pm

Quoting L0VE2FLY (Reply 19):
There's a lot of Asian airlines that could compete with DXB, AUH & DOH on Europe-Australasia, Africa-Australasia traffic, however, most of them lack the competent management and funds to become major global players.

I am sure there are a number of Asian Airlines with competent management.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 1):
But Africa is too far south to be a competitive connecting point between the two

What about SAA? Couldnt they capitalize on LHR-SYD via JNB?
Cheers;
 
AyostoLeon
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RE: Competing With DXB

Fri Sep 27, 2013 4:55 pm

Quoting AircanadaA330 (Reply 26):
LHR-SYD via JNB

Apart from the additional 1, 800 miles or so it would possibly depend on on two traffic flows. The first is A LHR-JNB and the second is JNB-SYD.

Does SQ have rights to operate those routes? Not only would require South African and British approval for the first leg it would require authority from both South Africa and Australia to operate such flights between South Africa and Australia. Given the uncertainty of the continued alliance between SA and QF on the JNB-SYD sector one might question whether SQ could operate without subsidy and therefore opposition from the current incumbents..
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incitatus
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RE: Competing With DXB

Fri Sep 27, 2013 5:26 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 24):
Look at LH's network : BAH is tag-on, MCT is tag-on, none in Pakistani/SriLanka/Bangladesh, only 5 destinations in India. Doesn't sound like much coverage beyond a few strategic destinations (e.g. Riyadh, TLV, AUH, BOM etc)

LH serves 20 destinations in the Middle East, India and SE Asia, which can connect to LH's 21 destinations in North America - 36 flights a day, plus UA/US/AC partner flights going into FRA/MUC feed LH's network beyond Europe. Almost a third of LH's capacity is dedicated to Asia and the Middle East.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 24):
And DXB is a so-so location for most US/Europe to middle east destinations

Exactly. That is why TK does not bring much to EK. Traffic that now flies on EK will migrate to TK.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 24):
I won't be too concerned if I were LH.

I can't tell who said LH should be concerned, but I did not. LH has never entered in a partnership bad for it, because LH is very good at making sure its partnerships work for its advantage, even if partnerships do not work for the other partners.

Going back to my original posting #15: What I have been pointing out is what is in it for EK? Nothing.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 25):
Explain how BA+QR is beneficial but LH+EK is detrimental ?

Closely related to my point above: QR is much weaker than EK. It needs things that EK does not, like narrow-bodies and airline alliances that bring incremental traffic. Otherwise it cannot reach scale to be competitive with EK.
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babybus
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RE: Competing With DXB

Fri Sep 27, 2013 5:44 pm

The travel world is always up for grabs. Nothing is certain. Everything can change.

DXB's position could easily be changed once 787s become reliable and western airlines can operate to niche long haul markets profitably. Also with greater loads and lower operating costs the A380 could bring down the cost of point to point long haul travel.

Who on earth wants to hub? I certainly don't. And Emirates is not the most comfortable airline in the world, I'd rather go with someone else, preferably European.
and with that..cabin crew, seats for landing please.
 
David_itl
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RE: Competing With DXB

Fri Sep 27, 2013 5:58 pm

Quoting babybus (Reply 29):
Who on earth wants to hub?

In the absence of suitable flights being available from secondary cities, I would imagine lots of people.
 
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TK787
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RE: Competing With DXB

Fri Sep 27, 2013 6:05 pm

-TK's location is better suited than EK (except Australia), especially if TK to get more Indian/Chinese slots.
-TK has a huge domestic population where half of its income comes from.
-TK is closely tied to the current government and have the lions share of Turkish bilaterals and slots at IST.
-TK is too far from Australia and it might never serve it on its own metal. Just not enough money there.
-TK will level the playing field with EK when the new airport opens in Istanbul by the end of this decade and when current TK fleet doubles around the same time.

Maybe similar results can be achieved by other airports around the region ;like ATH, FCO, LCA, TLV, BEY, if they put their minds to it.
 
a380787
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RE: Competing With DXB

Fri Sep 27, 2013 6:28 pm

Quoting TK787 (Reply 31):
Maybe similar results can be achieved by other airports around the region ;like ATH, FCO, LCA, TLV, BEY, if they put their minds to it.

Definitely not TLV, due to too much airspace restriction and onerous security requirements
 
airbazar
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RE: Competing With DXB

Fri Sep 27, 2013 6:31 pm

Quoting babybus (Reply 29):
DXB's position could easily be changed once 787s become reliable and western airlines can operate to niche long haul markets profitably. Also with greater loads and lower operating costs the A380 could bring down the cost of point to point long haul travel.

People said the same thing when the 744 was launched. Just about everyone wrote off DXB as a viable hub because airlines could over-fly it on their routes between Europe and SE Asia. That's not a viable threat, IMO.

To me the biggest threat to EK is emerging markets and emerging airlines, which is really ironic because those are the same markets that have enabled EK to be what they are. For years EK was able to grow by connecting passengers from under-served regions, but this is changing. We're seeing ET, KQ, DT, PR becoming stronger and expanding their reach. India is a huge question mark. If the Indian government gets their head out of their ass and decides to allow private carriers to compete with AI for international service, that has the potential to deliver a pretty bad blow to EK. China is not too keen on allowing EK to expand freely either, and neither is Japan.

On top of that, legacy carriers are adjusting and learning to compete with EK. European carriers like LH, AF, BA are working to bring costs down so they can better compete. They also have the home market that EK doesn't have. If Europeans can travel to Asia non-stop for the same price EK is charging for a 1-stop, what exactly does EK have to offer? And we haven't even seen the emergence of long haul LCC yet. Norwegian is the first European LCC to go long haul, or at least the first that might have a chance at surviving.
 
Viscount724
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RE: Competing With DXB

Fri Sep 27, 2013 6:44 pm

Quoting airbazar (Reply 23):
Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 17):The days of HNL being a major intermediate point on Asian routes (and to the South Pacific) ended once aircraft had the range to do it nonstop. And many preferred to make a fuel stop at ANC on routes to Asia since it's much shorter.
The days ended because there wasn't an airline with the vision or financial ability to do it. SIN is a pretty crappy location for an Asian hub and somehow they make it work. So is DXB for a lot of the connections they offer. Tons of people are flying between Europe and Asia, including China, via DXB and SIN. That's a far bigger detour than HNL is.

EK can do that due to their cost structure (no taxes for example). Other major Asian and U.S. carriers can't afford to send passengers thousands of miles out their way at competitive fares. Fares for those types of routings normally have to be lower than for more direct or nonstop routes, but your costs are much higher due to the extra flying.

SQ only really makes SIN work as a hub between Europe and Australia and parts of Asia not far from SIN. SIN is a poor hub from North America, and SQ's costs are much higher than EK's.
 
AyostoLeon
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RE: Competing With DXB

Fri Sep 27, 2013 6:52 pm

Quoting babybus (Reply 29):

Who on earth wants to hub?

The airlines. Of course most passengers would rather go from point A to point B with the minimum of fuss. For airlines the objective is not the same. Airlines wish to maximise utility of aircraft and convey the maximum number of passengers on each flight, even where one flight I seen as primarily feeding another.

Aircraft with greater range and fuel economy are of obvious interest but only in so far as they meet the primary objective, maximum number of bums on seats to yield a profit.

There I is no point in having the ability to fly a route if someone else can offer an alternative that is cheap enough to outweigh potential time saving, resulting in loads of only 50%.
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L0VE2FLY
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RE: Competing With DXB

Fri Sep 27, 2013 10:29 pm

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 22):
The biggest key word is COULD. That i guarantee 98% that it won't happen because of a lack of vision. DXB is quite safe from competition and needs to worry just about AUH in the region.

AUH, DOH and even IST.



Quoting AircanadaA330 (Reply 26):
I am sure there are a number of Asian Airlines with competent management.

Of course there is, SQ, CX, KE, etc...



Quoting AyostoLeon (Reply 27):
Apart from the additional 1, 800 miles or so it would possibly depend on on two traffic flows. The first is A LHR-JNB and the second is JNB-SYD.

Isn't LHR-JNB their best performing route? I doubt SA can compete on the Kangaroo Route though, 1800 mi. is ~4 hours of flying, plus they can't afford to take the risk of serving SYD, MEL, BNE & AKL any time soon, despite the strong ties between the 3 countries and the large number of South Africans living in Australia & NZ. Maybe when the A350s arrive things will change.
 
airbazar
Posts: 7128
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

RE: Competing With DXB

Fri Sep 27, 2013 11:29 pm

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 34):

SQ only really makes SIN work as a hub between Europe and Australia and parts of Asia not far from SIN. SIN is a poor hub from North America, and SQ's costs are much higher than EK's.

That is one of the biggest misconceptions about SQ and SIN as a hub. They are a very significant hub for all of Asia. People travel from the US and Europe to various points in Asia via SIN and vice versa. SQ is one of the largest carriers between India and the US. When I traveled to Thailand and Kathmandu years ago i flew via SIN and a significant portion of the passengers on the connecting flights to these destinations were American and Europeans, along with the obvious share of Ausies and Kiwis.
 
jfk777
Posts: 5958
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

RE: Competing With DXB

Sat Sep 28, 2013 11:12 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 20):
Taking your examples, CDG-IST-ADD versus CDG-DXB-ADD is 1200mi shorter via IST. Or CDG-AMM. Via Istanbul is 2145mi but via Dubai is 4517mi.

Emirates even connects tons of Brits headed for South Africa, not because of the distance but the fares are competitive and from Manchester, Glasgow, Birmingham and Edinburgh who wants to conect over Heathrow.

Quoting AircanadaA330 (Reply 26):
What about SAA? Couldnt they capitalize on LHR-SYD via JNB?

SAA has never been a big player in the UK to Australian market. Maybe to Perth but not Sydney or Melbourne.
 
747megatop
Posts: 1470
Joined: Wed May 23, 2007 8:22 am

RE: Competing With DXB

Sun Sep 29, 2013 12:34 am

Quoting airbazar (Reply 37):
That is one of the biggest misconceptions about SQ and SIN as a hub. They are a very significant hub for all of Asia. People travel from the US and Europe to various points in Asia via SIN and vice versa. SQ is one of the largest carriers between India and the US. When I traveled to Thailand and Kathmandu years ago i flew via SIN and a significant portion of the passengers on the connecting flights to these destinations were American and Europeans, along with the obvious share of Ausies and Kiwis.

What you say is true 10 years back or more. Things have changed now with EK and QR springing up and expansing aggressively across the globe. Also, with the QF hub switch from SIN to DXB, it has dealt a further blow. There was a recent analysis on how passenger growth in Singapore is slowing because of the QF hub switch to DXB - http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...hub-and-airasia-closes-base-105062
Singapore is actually an out of the way hub from India to North America. The only geographic advantage of Singapore is a hub for passengers flying between India and Australia. The article I just stated underscores the fact that the glorious days of Singapore as a megahub as changed in the past 10 years due to serious competition from EK and QR from their respective hubs of DXB and AUH. I guess that is the reason SQ is trying to get into an alliance with the Tata group from India to form an alliance and tap into the 2nd fastest growing Aviation market to give serious competition to EK and QR. SIN (and SQ) now really need to think hard and plan their future and not rest on their laurels.
 
ElPistolero
Posts: 1156
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 12:44 am

RE: Competing With DXB

Sun Sep 29, 2013 2:10 am

I see the Canadian obsession with EK continues.

Quoting AircanadaA330 (Thread starter):
Is it possible for any airline/airport to grow to rival EK?

In one word: Yes. EK's model isn't complicated, and while its location isn't bad, there are plenty of airports in the region that could repeat the trick. However, the issues for the obvious replacements are as follows:

1) Inept Governments
2) Local instability
3) Lack of investment
4) Lack of political will
5) Lack of a comprehensive national policy
6) Lack of adequately skilled workforce/ability to bring it in.

And so on.

Dubai/EK itself is a model of simplicity. Build an airport. Buy some aircraft. Remove all the obstacles for pax/airline growth. Also make a concerted bid for tourism by building relevant infrastructure. And let the airline do its thing. EK has benefitted from India's economic rise, and while I m sure any airline would like the first mover advantage of tapping into an untapped market like that, I think most projections of Asia-> Europe/N. America traffic growth are positive. In theory, Turkmenistan could replicate a lot of it if it didn't suffer from the incomplete list above.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 12):
Can we dispel the myth that TK is mirroring what EK is doing ?

Sure, but all you've proved is that TK isn't duplicating EK, not that it hasn't adopted EK's model.

The TK model, like the EK model, is built on the following tenets

1. The Government gives free rein to the airline to do what it wants and support it to whatever extent possible.

2. The government does not impede its growth by taxing it punitively. Instead, it facilitates its growth where it can by investing in infrastructure.

3. The government makes a strong push for tourism and builds up the tourism infrastructure as well - that helps the airline grow (and vice versa)

4. The government negotiates bilaterals with the aim of gaining more access for its airline regardless of previous ties with the country its negotiating with. This is crucial, since it requires dropping any pretense of O&D traffic and other 1970s protectionist claptrap. After all, both the EK and TK models are all about connecting traffic streams by flying to cities that can't, on their own, support O&D traffic with the airline's main hub. Think IST-KTM.

5. The Airline leverages its geographical and cultural ties to the max. EK has done this by making the most of the UAE's ties with South Asia. TK has done this by leveraging Turkey's relationship with Europe. Same concept, different regions. Saying that its different because TK hasn't mimicked EK in South Asia (Or EK hasn't mimicked TK in Europe) beggars belief. I've flown TK on DEL-IST several times and I've met people flying to small nooks and crannies all across Europe.

And so on. TK following the EK model isn't about TK flying to Australia or Israel. Its simply about the government and the airline harmonizing their strategy in a bid to let the airline grow, rather than to milk it for revenue, which seems to be the preferred path in the developed world. A lot of the points you've raised don't really say anything other than that TK isn't duplicating each EK route piece by piece.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 12):
If LH ever invites EK to Star Alliance

Pigs will fly long before LH says anything complimentry about EK. LHs rhetoric passed the point of reason long ago - its been a steady stream of histrionics for a while now.

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 14):
India can be a serious "potential" competitor to the MEB3 carriers & hubs. But again, this is only a "potential" competitor on paper till India gets it's act together.

Indeed. As can many countries, provided their leadership takes an approach that is similar to what Dubai and Turkey have done.

The model both airlines are using is very simple - definitely not rocket science.
 
cmf
Posts: 3120
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2011 11:22 pm

RE: Competing With DXB

Sun Sep 29, 2013 2:47 am

Quoting AyostoLeon (Reply 35):
The airlines. Of course most passengers would rather go from point A to point B with the minimum of fuss.

On a theoretical level you're right but most people realise no location is strong enough to have flights to all other locations.

Quoting ElPistolero (Reply 40):
However, the issues for the obvious replacements are as follows:

I think you missed a major point. Few owners and managers have the will to take on such a project.
Don’t repeat earlier generations mistakes. Learn history for a better future.
 
ElPistolero
Posts: 1156
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 12:44 am

RE: Competing With DXB

Sun Sep 29, 2013 2:50 am

Quoting cmf (Reply 41):

I think you missed a major point. Few owners and managers have the will to take on such a project.

Perhaps, but we've got four airlines in the region who have shown the will. I did mention political will - perhaps I should have called that general will. Its a high risk business, but it can pay massive dividends if you get it right.
 
Viscount724
Posts: 19287
Joined: Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:32 pm

RE: Competing With DXB

Sun Sep 29, 2013 2:34 pm

Quoting airbazar (Reply 37):
Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 34):
SQ only really makes SIN work as a hub between Europe and Australia and parts of Asia not far from SIN. SIN is a poor hub from North America, and SQ's costs are much higher than EK's.

That is one of the biggest misconceptions about SQ and SIN as a hub. They are a very significant hub for all of Asia. People travel from the US and Europe to various points in Asia via SIN and vice versa. SQ is one of the largest carriers between India and the US.

I doubt India is still a major SQ market from/to the U.S. To major destinations like DEL it's also more than 2,000 nm further than via some hubs further north, and also significantly further than via the Gulf or via Europe. Example:

LAX-SIN-DEL 9.862 nm
LAX-ICN-DEL 7,725 nm
LAX-NRT-DEL 7.933 nm
LAX-HKG-DEL 8,334 nm
LAX-DXB-DEL 8,428 nm
LAX-FRA-DEL 8,357 nm
 
User avatar
TK787
Posts: 3137
Joined: Wed Jan 04, 2006 3:43 am

RE: Competing With DXB

Sun Sep 29, 2013 8:51 pm

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 43):
LAX-SIN-DEL 9.862 nm
LAX-ICN-DEL 7,725 nm
LAX-NRT-DEL 7.933 nm
LAX-HKG-DEL 8,334 nm
LAX-DXB-DEL 8,428 nm
LAX-FRA-DEL 8,357 nm

Even TK has a shot;
LAX-IST-DEL 8437nm
 
airbazar
Posts: 7128
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

RE: Competing With DXB

Mon Sep 30, 2013 1:18 pm

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 39):
Singapore is actually an out of the way hub from India to North America.

That's a misconception unless by out of the way you mean, it requires 2 stops.
sfo-hkg-sin-ccu = 8962
sfo-dxb-ccu = 8862

sfo-hkg-sin-blr = 9116
sfo-dxb-blr = 8497

In most cases the difference is 1000nm or less. But I do agree that SQ's market share has decreased a lot in the last decade. That have even dropped a couple of cities in India. But they are still carrying a good amount of traffic to/from SFO/LAX.
 
upwardfacing
Posts: 299
Joined: Thu Apr 04, 2013 6:56 am

RE: Competing With DXB

Sun Oct 13, 2013 8:26 am

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 39):
Singapore is actually an out of the way hub from India to North America. The only geographic advantage of Singapore is a hub for passengers flying between India and Australia. The article I just stated underscores the fact that the glorious days of Singapore as a megahub as changed in the past 10 years due to serious competition from EK and QR from their respective hubs of DXB and AUH. I guess that is the reason SQ is trying to get into an alliance with the Tata group from India to form an alliance and tap into the 2nd fastest growing Aviation market to give serious competition to EK and QR. SIN (and SQ) now really need to think hard and plan their future and not rest on their laurels.

EK and SQ have different strengths with respect to the Indian market, but one thing they do have in common is enormous traffic to their home airports and home countries. See:

http://www.routesonline.com/news/29/...t-india-market-demand-destination/

http://www.routesonline.com/news/29/...light-india-market-demand-country/

Both Singapore and the UAE are hugely important trade and investment partners for India with plenty of O&D traffic, so the major role of SIN and DXB as hubs to onward destinations should not be too surprising. Also for SQ don't forget that India-Southeast Asia traffic will probably grow fast with the India-ASEAN trade agreement in place (including services, meaning increased movement of workers/professionals along with businesspeople).
 
sweair
Posts: 1816
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2011 9:59 am

RE: Competing With DXB

Sun Oct 13, 2013 8:32 am

From the horn of Africa, Australia would be in reach? Still hot destinations and demanding on MTOW?
 
upwardfacing
Posts: 299
Joined: Thu Apr 04, 2013 6:56 am

RE: Competing With DXB

Sun Oct 13, 2013 9:22 am

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 14):

India can be a serious "potential" competitor to the MEB3 carriers & hubs. But again, this is only a "potential" competitor on paper till India gets it's act together. This was extensively discussed in another thread about a couple of months ago

- India Aviation-Unfortunate Lost Revenues (by flyenthu Jul 23 2013 in Civil Aviation)?

I never got around to posting to that thread before it was locked, but I will say now that I am not sure if the general assumptions and argument are particularly strong.

The basic idea, I think, is that poor aviation infrastructure and poor aviation policy hold India back. I don't know, however, if civil aviation occurs in a vacuum. Getting one's "act together" would have to encompass other, non-aviation areas as well.

One basic problem is that people are comparing a huge, polycentric, and frankly poor country with much smaller, wealthier city-state-like entities.

And what about:

--General geopolitical considerations (think of: relations with certain neighbours; history of terror attacks)
--Overall economic position (growth and wealth--meaning who can afford to travel)
--Super-wealthy among population (millionaires and billionaires translate into premium traffic)
--Role in regional trade (adversely affected by the first category)
--Role in global trade (business travel)
--Role in various global industries (e.g., finance, industrial goods manufacturing, entertainment, IT, pharma, etc.)
--Role in international diplomacy
--Tourism (nice that people mentioned related visa policy)
--There must be more!

Just search any of these and you can see that India is not particularly strong on these counts, though there are a few niches here and there. For example, I believe the Emirate of Dubai alone receives many times more tourists than the entire nation of India. (Search to verify.) To make matters even worse, many of the tourists visiting India are simply former Indian nationals who have exchanged their Indian passports for fancier ones!

One area in which India excels on the world stage is in generating people who want to work outside their home country. I guess this does generate lots of proletariat class passengers on planes. But what about the other drivers of traffic?

As many A.net threads tell us, Dubai is now a major business and tourism destination in its own right, with a wealthy native and expat population as well. Multiple factors contribute to its success in generating O&D traffic; DXB is not just a place to make transfers.

Singapore is an even more developed, mature global centre for trade, finance, shipping, oil refining, technology, higher education, media, multinational corporations in diverse industries, etc., etc., etc. Again, it also has a large and wealthy expat population.

Just look at how many carriers from across the globe with how many flights serve these two important airports. Over time, I suspect a new generation of Indian cities will want their own flights to places like DXB and SIN!

Vague notions of growth alongside geography may not be enough to make any potential Indian hub airport become a true rival to their incumbent, established counterparts on the other side of the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. What an Indian hub airport can do, however, is open up lots of smaller Indian cities to a few select global destinations.

I guess you could start a whole new thread, "What makes a hub?"  
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 13701
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

RE: Competing With DXB

Sun Oct 13, 2013 9:55 am

Quoting airbazar (Reply 11):
DXB and EK are neither the largest hub in the world nor the largest airline in the world.

Maybe not if you include all those domestic flights to Backofbeyondsville. Look at the international figures.

http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...ditional-international-hubs-104857
Quote:
Dubai International Airport (DXB) continues its inexorable march to become the world’s largest airport by international passenger traffic. At the end of Mar-2013, the airport announced it had been confirmed as the world’s second busiest airport for international passenger traffic, moving ahead of Paris’ Charles de Gaulle airport for the first time on a month to month basis.

Only London Heathrow Airport remains a bigger hub for international traffic. Given the pace of traffic growth in Dubai, the capacity constraints at London Heathrow and the dithering by UK authorities about runway capacity in southeast England, it is only a matter of time before Dubai becomes the world’s largest international passenger hub.


Quoting AircanadaA330 (Reply 26):
What about SAA? Couldnt they capitalize on LHR-SYD via JNB?

Sure, if you don't mind adding 3,000km to your journey compared with going via BKK or SIN.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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