wilco737
Topic Author
Posts: 7279
Joined: Sun Jun 20, 2004 12:21 am

JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 5:14 am

Hi guys,

part 1: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 1 (by wilco737 Oct 7 2013 in Civil Aviation)

Please continue here.

Thanks.

wilco737
  
 
columba
Posts: 5043
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2004 10:12 pm

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 7:10 am

Interesting two weeks for Airbus and the A350. First LH and now JAL. Didn´t John Leahy said after the Paris Air Show that he is taking the rest of the year off and is going fishing.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...after-nearing-2013-sales-goal.html

Honestly I see him sitting at a lake wearing a fisherman´s hat, holding the fishing rod in one hand, his cell in the other and closing all the deals. He truly is a natural salesman.

As for Boeing losing this order for the 787 issues, despite what JAL officials are saying now, I definitely believe they were a factor in the decision. Earlier this year a JAL chairman has been quoted saying that it is unhealthy for an airline to rely only on one manufacturer. They can not say it out loud now because in the future JAL will buy Boeing planes again but that time Boeing will have to fight for that order knowing that getting JAL as a customer again is not a given......
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
ferpe
Posts: 2651
Joined: Tue Nov 30, 2010 7:44 am

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 7:26 am

I would like to spin a bit on this comment from phxa340 in the first thread:

"While the 777X was probably to big for JAL and lost that order, they picked up one from LH because it was the right size for them. Its a constant give and take for the manufactures."

The OEMs have composed the competitive line-up very differently in the DA to the SA, at single aisle it is head to head on all sizes. For dual aisle there is an almost perfect straddling of capability of frames which are all similarly competitive:

B788
A358
B789
A359
A35J
B779

The 78J and the 778 are a bit odd balls as they do not have the typical performance patterns of 8000nm nominal payload range (in the end this means they are solid 6500-7000nm performers). What this all mean is that we will see a real mix of orders and many airliners that orders both OEMs new aircraft like AF/KLM, LH, SIA......

I think we can already see what the chief sales mens are pounding the venerable table back home for  :

- A 787-10HGW which gets 8000nm range. Expect the decision within a year or so...

- The A350-1100, John Leahy said not way 3 months ago, now at ISTAT he said we are looking if the market warrants such a variant  Wow!

[Edited 2013-10-08 00:27:51]
Non French in France
 
sabenapilot
Posts: 2442
Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2000 6:18 pm

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 7:32 am

Bloomberg has a very interesting article on the 'behind the scenes' of this deal:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1...tress-with-sake-and-ski-lifts.html

some quotes:

Bregier logged 50,000 miles on four trips to Tokyo in his first year at the helm of the European planemaker.

In December he made the 13-hour flight to meet JAL executives for the first time in his new capacity as CEO and also secured an audience with future prime minister, Shinzo Abe.

Only a month later, the Frenchman made a sidetrip to Davos, the biggest gathering of government and industry leaders, to hook up with Inamori only days after JAL was forced to park its fleet of Boeing 787 Dreamliners in a global grounding.

By March, Bregier was back in Japan, and he invited a team of JAL experts to Toulouse for visits in May and again in June.

“The real challenge was getting them to develop confidence in Airbus"... "until this point really knew us hardly at all.”
 
sankaps
Posts: 1692
Joined: Fri Jan 04, 2008 6:51 am

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 7:51 am

Quoting sabenapilot (Reply 3):
Bloomberg has a very interesting article on the 'behind the scenes' of this deal:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1....html

Good article, thanks for posting. Also interesting is this quote:

"“We made it challenging for them in introducing the 787 and we’ll work to correct that,” Kostya Zolotusky, Boeing’s managing director of capital markets and leasing, said yesterday after the JAL announcement. The loss to Airbus is “a heartbreak,” he said. "

So even Boeing is seeing a linkage. Guess they must be Boeing-bashers...  
 
User avatar
teme82
Posts: 1193
Joined: Fri Mar 23, 2007 6:38 am

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 8:18 am

Quoting sankaps (Reply 4):
Guess they must be Boeing-bashers.

Yeah they are bashing themselves to get things in order and getting the problems solved.  
Flying high and low
 
User avatar
KarelXWB
Crew
Posts: 19429
Joined: Sun Jul 15, 2012 6:13 pm

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 8:43 am

Quoting sabenapilot (Reply 3):
By March, Bregier was back in Japan, and he invited a team of JAL experts to Toulouse for visits in May and again in June.

Funny, I remember MSN4 doing a few long-haul trips over France in May and June. Not sure if these were the JAL test flights though.

As for the A380, Yoshiharu Ueki added:

Quote:
After announcing the Airbus order Monday, JAL President Yoshiharu Ueki %u2014a former pilot who flew 747s%u2014declined to say whether he plans to buy A380s. But he said that the A350s JAL ordered and the superjumbo are almost identical to fly because of the way Airbus designs them.
Close, but no cigar http://vine.co/v/OjqeYWWpVWK
 
FlyingAY
Posts: 408
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2007 2:26 pm

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 9:40 am

We all know Richard Aboulafia gets it wrong sometimes, but this quote in the mentioned Bloomberg article is interesting:
"“With the A350 order there’s now the risk of JAL getting a 777 replacement years before ANA does,” said Richard Aboulafia, vice president at the Teal Group, an aviation advisory firm in Fairfax, Virginia. “Therefore, an ANA A350 order is likely,” "
 
PHX787
Posts: 7877
Joined: Thu Mar 15, 2012 7:46 pm

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 9:59 am

Hey guys, missed part one, and really busy. Someone give me a brief rundown of what was said?

My 2 cents- B didn't pick up the pieces, was not transparent, or simply didn't placate JL enough after the 787 debacles. The japanese media stirring jitters in the public about the safety of the 787 certainly did not do anything to help

Another point, and maybe a possible hypothesis: IN order for JL to avoid accruing more debt, they are probably doing an all around overhaul, not just management. If you all recall they began mass hiring recently. Pilots are next to be hired.

The A350 certainly looks to be the 777 replacer, as to me 777X is too big for a lot of Japanese routes.

Boeing needs to think of something quick in order to stay on board in Japan. I think they should start kissing ass.
Follow me on twitter: www.twitter.com/phx787
 
Carpethead
Posts: 2562
Joined: Mon Aug 02, 2004 8:15 pm

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 12:03 pm

Quoting sabenapilot (Reply 3):
Bloomberg has a very interesting article on the 'behind the scenes' of this deal:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1....html

That is exactly what Airbus needed to do to land this A350 order.
JAL, like most companies in Japan, will not just order equipment on a whim just because the initial cost is cheaper. We look for support, reliability, etc, all the factors in the product life cycle.
Then,

Quoting FlyingAY (Reply 7):
"“With the A350 order there’s now the risk of JAL getting a 777 replacement years before ANA does,” said Richard Aboulafia, vice president at the Teal Group, an aviation advisory firm in Fairfax, Virginia. “Therefore, an ANA A350 order is likely,”

ANA could careless what JAL operates. If JAL flew 744 with state-of-the-art business class seats. They would try to one-up that on-board product rather than the actual aircraft.

I am still crossing my fingers on a 748 order on the day the last 744D goes out.
 
User avatar
KarelXWB
Crew
Posts: 19429
Joined: Sun Jul 15, 2012 6:13 pm

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 1:00 pm

Now ANA is the next focus:

Quote:
ANA Holdings wants around 35 aircraft to replace its long-haul Boeing 777s and, like JAL, is considering both the A350 and the Boeing 777X, the re-engine, updated variant of the popular long-range wide-body jet.

After the JAL setback, ANA is fast becoming a "can't lose at any cost" deal for Boeing, whose executives are under pressure to "do everything they can" to win the deal, said an industry source close to the U.S. planemaker.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...oeing-airbus-idUSBRE9970DS20131008
Close, but no cigar http://vine.co/v/OjqeYWWpVWK
 
Centre
Posts: 321
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2010 11:37 pm

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 1:40 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 10):
Now ANA is the next focus:

Interesting read for sure.
So, with a statement like "can't lose at any cost" how do A350 and 777X compare on merits?

As far as I recall, the 777X was designed with a lot of influence from Gulf carriers. Boeing had always perceived the A35J as the real threat regardless of the A.net mantra that it will be a poor seller.

And still recall how Emirates and Qatar were not so happy with Airbus when they redesigned the A35J .

Quote:
Clark said. %u201CWe%u2019re trying to persuade Airbus to realign the A350-1000 more toward the ER, increasing both its capacity and its range.%u201D
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-1...-a350-as-boeing-stalls-on-777.html

and then he comes back with this statement:

Quote:
%u201CWe kind of put them on notice that frankly we were quite happy with the way it was,%u201D Clark said in an April 26 interview.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...-a350-1000-orders-from-etihad.html

Airbus followed what the global market wants and they dug in until orders for the 1000 started to pour in, and now they are reaping the benefits of their decision.
I have cut 4 times, and it's still short.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 22920
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 1:56 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 10):
Now ANA is the next focus:

Well Boeing failed twice with that strategy with Japan Airlines (first the 747-8 and now the 777-9), so not sure it's going to do them any good with All Nippon if both models are not the right fit for them, as well.



Quoting Centre (Reply 11):
So, with a statement like "can't lose at any cost" how do A350 and 777X compare on merits?

I expect it will be the same - A350-1000 is the better match because it's a 1:1 direct drop-in replacement for the 777-300 and 777-300ER.

What will be interesting to see is if NH also orders the A350-900. Unlike JL, their domestic 777-200s are 9-abreast in Economy and NH;s original conversion of 15 787-8s to 787-9s was to replace those domestic 777-200s. NH have subsequently added another 15 787-9s, which is more than sufficient to replace their international 777-200ERs.
 
User avatar
EPA001
Posts: 3781
Joined: Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:13 pm

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 2:05 pm

Quoting columba (Reply 1):
Didn´t John Leahy said after the Paris Air Show that he is taking the rest of the year off and is going fishing.

He did. And went out fishing for more significant orders from other blue chip customers like LH and JL, and he succeeded.  .

Quoting FlyingAY (Reply 7):
We all know Richard Aboulafia gets it wrong sometimes, but this quote in the mentioned Bloomberg article is interesting:
"“With the A350 order there’s now the risk of JAL getting a 777 replacement years before ANA does,” said Richard Aboulafia, vice president at the Teal Group, an aviation advisory firm in Fairfax, Virginia. “Therefore, an ANA A350 order is likely,” "

It would be fantastic news for Airbus if Richard Aboulafia would get his predictions right this time. But let's wait and see what ANA will decide in the spring of 2014 before making assumptions on the possible orders.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 10):
Now ANA is the next focus:

And this one will be hard fought over indeed.

Quoting Centre (Reply 11):
Airbus followed what the global market wants and they dug in until orders for the 1000 started to pour in, and now they are reaping the benefits of their decision.

Yes, there believe in themselves has paid off and is being rewarded by the market with huge votes of confidence. They have earned it imho.  .

Quoting Stitch (Reply 12):
Well Boeing failed twice with that strategy with Japan Airlines (first the 747-8 and now the 777-9), so not sure it's going to do them any good with All Nippon if both models are not the right fit for them, as well.

Well, anything can still happen here imho. Will be very interesting to see how this one will play out.   .
 
Aircellist
Posts: 1242
Joined: Fri Oct 08, 2004 8:43 am

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 2:17 pm

Quoting columba (Reply 1):
Didn´t John Leahy said after the Paris Air Show that he is taking the rest of the year off and is going fishing.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...after-nearing-2013-sales-goal.html

Honestly I see him sitting at a lake wearing a fisherman´s hat, holding the fishing rod in one hand, his cell in the other and closing all the deals. He truly is a natural salesman.

No, no, the point is: who is he inviting to his fishing trips?

Quoting sabenapilot (Reply 3):
Bregier logged 50,000 miles on four trips to Tokyo in his first year at the helm of the European planemaker.

On a more serious note: this sale seems to be Bregier's, quite personally, in fact. After all, from the article, we get that he's been making sales in Japan years before his time at Airbus. Not only that, but with Leahy's heart problems of recent years, someone at Airbus must be looking for a new top salesman.

About Leahy: am I the only one that found him short-breathed in the recent video interview?
"When I find out I was wrong, I change my mind. What do you do?" -attributed to John Maynard Keynes
 
User avatar
EPA001
Posts: 3781
Joined: Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:13 pm

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 2:21 pm

Quoting Aircellist (Reply 14):
On a more serious note: this sale seems to be Bregier's, quite personally, in fact. After all, from the article, we get that he's been making sales in Japan years before his time at Airbus.

Well, with his experience in Japan it was only logical to use this to secure this deal. And the Japanese usually value this experience and the knowledge people from other countries have about their country, culture and customs very much.

And so this major and to Airbus very important JL deal was won by Airbus.

[Edited 2013-10-08 07:22:50]
 
holzmann
Posts: 488
Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2011 3:43 pm

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 2:40 pm

What exactly is B's thinking with the 77X? Grow the current design to become a VLA competitor, cannibalize 748 sales in hopes of eating into A38X sales as well? (With recent news of DLH cutting their options / no new A380 orders in over one year then perhaps this strategy is working?)

Did it ever cross B's mind that they should...

1. Admit that the 777 has been a success.
2. Realize that growing the 777 into the 77X could leave a gap for A to step in and serve those who just want a newer 777 and not something bigger with more range?
3. Build a 1:1 size replacement of the 777 series with 21st Century technology like CRFP wing/fuselage/new engines?
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 22920
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 2:49 pm

Quoting holzmann (Reply 16):
What exactly is B's thinking with the 77X?

They're thinking of trying to offer a product to compete with the A350-1000 on 777-300ER replacement RFPs.


Quoting holzmann (Reply 16):
Did it ever cross B's mind that they should...

1. Admit that the 777 has been a success.

I think they know that.  
Quoting holzmann (Reply 16):
2. Realize that growing the 777 into the 77X could leave a gap for A to step in and serve those who just want a newer 777 and not something bigger with more range?

The 777-8 at 10-abreast Economy offers similar capacity to the 777-300ER at 9-abreast with better range. The 777-9 offers a bit more capacity than the 777-300ER at either 9-abreast or 10-abreast with similar range.



Quoting holzmann (Reply 16):
3. Build a 1:1 size replacement of the 777 series with 21st Century technology like CRFP wing/fuselage/new engines?

Such a plane could only compete with the A350-1000 on price, resulting in depressed margins for both OEMS, and would enter the market upwards of a decade later.


Personally, I think Boeing should have pushed GE to launch the GE9X the day Airbus announced the A350-1000 and hung it off the 777 Freighter, 777-200LR and 777-300ER. They could have had it in service years before the A350-1000 and nipped the A350-900L and A350-900F in the bud and they would not have needed to dedicate significant resources to the program, so they could have continued with it even as the 787 program ran aground.

But they didn't, so...
 
User avatar
KarelXWB
Crew
Posts: 19429
Joined: Sun Jul 15, 2012 6:13 pm

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 2:51 pm

Quoting holzmann (Reply 16):
Grow the current design to become a VLA competitor

Certainly not. The 777-9 is only a 2.7 meters stretch and will house 20 more seats than the 77W.

Quoting holzmann (Reply 16):
1. Admit that the 777 has been a success.

I'm sure they do.

Quoting holzmann (Reply 16):
2. Realize that growing the 777 into the 77X could leave a gap for A to step in and serve those who just want a newer 777 and not something bigger with more range?
Quoting holzmann (Reply 16):
3. Build a 1:1 size replacement of the 777 series with 21st Century technology like CRFP wing/fuselage/new engines?

The issue is, even with new engines and new wings a 1:1 77W replacement would not match the fuel burn of the A350. The airframe is heavier, hence Boeing needed to add more seats to equal the fuel burn per passenger of the A350-1000. And the extra revenue of those seats can cover the higher trip cost.

[Edited 2013-10-08 07:55:25]
Close, but no cigar http://vine.co/v/OjqeYWWpVWK
 
User avatar
TheRedBaron
Posts: 3081
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2005 6:17 am

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 2:55 pm

Quoting Centre (Reply 11):
Interesting read for sure.
So, with a statement like "can't lose at any cost" how do A350 and 777X compare on merits?

Seeing that according to A net lore Airbus gives away aircraft, to win the ANA order Boeing would have to give away the 777x and some money....    

In my view this is a way stronger message to Boeing about fixing the 787 problems that the LOT, UA and Norwegian... PR problems. They need to regain confidence in 2 of their most loyal customers, and Airbus (as per the article) went the whole 10 yards to ensure credibility and confidence. They built up the relationship and this is the outcome.

Now I think that in the next 3 months we will see tons of orders for the A350, the 789 and 77X, because slots will be filing, deliveries will get quite far in the future, and I guess that if EK orders a truckload of wide bodies, everyone and their dog will wan t to get in line, I dont think ANA will wait 6 months to make an order...

Very interesting 4 months ahead we will have !

TRB
The best seat in a Plane is the Jumpseat.
 
User avatar
DocLightning
Posts: 19580
Joined: Wed Nov 16, 2005 8:51 am

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 3:35 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 18):
The issue is, even with new engines and new wings a 1:1 77W replacement would not match the fuel burn of the A350. The airframe is heavier, hence Boeing needed to add more seats to equal the fuel burn per passenger of the A350-1000. And the extra revenue of those seats can cover the higher trip cost.

I don't understand this. OK, the 777 airframe is heavier than the A350's, but why then should stretching the 777 improve its weight? Remember, the 778 is bigger than the 772 and the 779 is bigger than the 77W.

On a different note, is this the first time JL has been an RR customer? I'm going through their past fleet and I can only come up with PW and GE engines.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
PHX787
Posts: 7877
Joined: Thu Mar 15, 2012 7:46 pm

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 3:41 pm

Jeez Boeing better start kissing ass and letting some NH people on the 77X design board if they wanna sell to them. Otherwise, NH will jump ship and buy the 350.
Follow me on twitter: www.twitter.com/phx787
 
User avatar
KarelXWB
Crew
Posts: 19429
Joined: Sun Jul 15, 2012 6:13 pm

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 3:44 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 20):
I don't understand this. OK, the 777 airframe is heavier than the A350's, but why then should stretching the 777 improve its weight? Remember, the 778 is bigger than the 772 and the 779 is bigger than the 77W.

The weight increase of the stretch is not that big, but those 20 extra seats will reduce the fuel burn per passenger significantly. Plus those seats will generate extra revenue when you can fill them.

Let's do the math with easy numbers:

> A351: 200 kg / 35 pax = 5.7 kg per pax
> B778: 270 kg / 35 pax = 10 kg per pax
> B779: 340 kg / 55 pax = 6.1 kg per pax
Close, but no cigar http://vine.co/v/OjqeYWWpVWK
 
Millenium
Posts: 149
Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2012 9:05 pm

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 3:45 pm

With all these orders coming in for the 787 and A350 I thought it was time for a little comparison of the "777-200" size aircraft market. (7400-8500 nm frames - 787-10, A340-500 and 777-200LR does not fit this criteria)

Aircrafts sold.
A340-300 = 218 (All serial aircraft produced)
777-200+ER = 510 (All serial aircraft produced)
787-9 = 391 (No serial aircraft produced)
A350-900 = 499 (No serial aircraft produced) Figure includes SAS and JAL orders (8+18) not included in Airbus latest order update.

So so far we have 728 aircrafts to be replaced with 890 aircrafts. This marked seems to be quite well covered...

Please feel free to correct me if I am wrong.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A340

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_777

http://www.pdxlight.com/787.htm

http://www.a350xwb.com/x-tra/od

[Edited 2013-10-08 08:58:31]
 
EddieDude
Posts: 6166
Joined: Fri Nov 14, 2003 10:19 am

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 4:08 pm

Quoting ferpe (Reply 2):
The 78J and the 778 are a bit odd balls as they do not have the typical performance patterns of 8000nm nominal payload range (in the end this means they are solid 6500-7000nm performers).

It was my understanding that the 777-8X would be the ultimate ultra long-haul champion.
Next flights: MEX-LAX AM 738, LAX-PVG DL 77L, SHA-PEK CA 789, PEK-PVG CA A332, PVG-ORD MU 77W, ORD-MEX AM 738
 
sweair
Posts: 1816
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2011 9:59 am

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 4:12 pm

I can actually see the 778 selling better than the 77L, 350 seats with a high payload capacity, exactly what the77W is not today.
 
frigatebird
Posts: 1142
Joined: Thu Jun 05, 2008 7:02 pm

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 4:25 pm

Quoting FlyingAY (Reply 7):
We all know Richard Aboulafia gets it wrong sometimes, but this quote in the mentioned Bloomberg article is interesting:
"%u201CWith the A350 order there%u2019s now the risk of JAL getting a 777 replacement years before ANA does,%u201D said Richard Aboulafia, vice president at the Teal Group, an aviation advisory firm in Fairfax, Virginia. %u201CTherefore, an ANA A350 order is likely,%u201D "

Difference is, Boeing actually seems to pitch the 787-10 as well as the 777X. With JL, it apparently was just the 777X.
For JL, earlier availability of the A350 was a major factor in the decision (the A350 becoming a fantastic airplane as well of course   ) I don't think there will be much difference in availabilty between the A350 and the 787-10... And the airplanes that need earliest replacement are the 772A's.
So I wouldn't be surprised to see RA proven wrong again  
Quoting PHX787 (Reply 21):
Jeez Boeing better start kissing ass and letting some NH people on the 77X design board if they wanna sell to them.

I believe NH actually is part of that team... No guarantee of an order of course.
146,318/19/20/21,AB6,332,343,345,388,722,732/3/4/5/G/8,9,742,74E,744,752,762,763,772,77E,773,77W,AT4/7,ATP,CRK,E90,F50/7
 
sweair
Posts: 1816
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2011 9:59 am

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 4:33 pm

Would QF be a candidate for the 778? Range and decent payload, in a twin. Or would ETOPS stop that idea?
 
BlueSky1976
Posts: 1603
Joined: Tue Jul 20, 2004 9:18 am

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 4:42 pm

With respect to NH RFP, I hope Airbus wins it, for the sake of equal market share in Japan. It's time for a change.

Quoting sweair (Reply 27):
Would QF be a candidate for the 778?

Yes. I could imagine QF operating both -8 and -9.
POLAND IS UNDER DICTATORSHIP. PLEASE SUPPORT COMMITTEE FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACY, K.O.D.
 
raggi
Posts: 879
Joined: Mon Oct 23, 2000 4:34 am

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 4:52 pm

Slightly off topic perhaps, but I can't help but think that Airbus has won quite a few customers that have until recently been VERY loyal Boeing widebody customers for long haul aircraft , the likes of UA, BA, CX, ET and now JL.




raggi
Stick & Rudder
 
PHX787
Posts: 7877
Joined: Thu Mar 15, 2012 7:46 pm

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 4:53 pm

Here's a Japan Times opinion article:
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/201...s-swooped-in-at-right-time-for-jal

This Airbus boss knew exactly what he was doing. he played every single card right with the Japanese. This dude is a genius. Maybe Boeing needs some management shake-ups.

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 26):
I believe NH actually is part of that team... No guarantee of an order of course.

Well if they're part of the team, then there's a chance.
Follow me on twitter: www.twitter.com/phx787
 
tortugamon
Posts: 6674
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 5:02 pm

Quoting sankaps (Reply 4):
So even Boeing is seeing a linkage.

There is no way that JAL bought the A350 just because of their experience with the 787. If the A350 did not work well for them, the next set of decision criteria (whatever it is) would not have been enough to close the deal. I personally think the A350 was the better fit, but even if it was just a comparable fit to competitive aircraft earlier availability (and less risk of late deliveries like they experienced with the 787 botched EIS is included in this factor), and their inevitable fantastic pricing (CAPA says it may have even been below cost!) will certainly be contributing factors. People should not be saying that the 787 experience was the cause for the A350 JAL sale; just like you say in another thread:

"They will buy the best aircraft that can perform the mission at lowest total cost of operation and ownership"

Quoting holzmann (Reply 16):
Grow the current design to become a VLA competitor

2.6m stretch is enough. As Truman/Napoleon once said: "Never … murder a man who is committing suicide". No need to try to compete in that niche market.

Quoting Millenium (Reply 23):
"777-200" size aircraft market.

The 787-10 out ranges the 772 and the 773 and should be an excellent 77E replacement as well.

Quoting sweair (Reply 27):
Would QF be a candidate for the 778?

I think there is a small chance that QF could open up ORD or JFK with this aircraft. EK has mentioned SYD-FCO with significant payload as appealing to him (I am not sure how he plans to operate that route). Yes I see them as buyers of the 777x.

tortugamon
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 2980
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 5:06 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 21):
Jeez Boeing better start kissing ass and letting some NH people on the 77X design board if they wanna sell to them. Otherwise, NH will jump ship and buy the 350.

Last thing Boeing wants is some tight lipped Japanese drawing anything. Still trying to figure out what is wrong with the battery they designed.

General sales strategy to counter such order is go after a all Airbus customer. NH is not all Boeing, JAL is not first Japanese Airbus WB customer.
 
EddieDude
Posts: 6166
Joined: Fri Nov 14, 2003 10:19 am

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 5:08 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 31):
The 787-10 out ranges the 772 and the 773 and should be an excellent 77E replacement as well.

Boeing's replacement for the 777-200ER is the 787-9, isn't it?
Next flights: MEX-LAX AM 738, LAX-PVG DL 77L, SHA-PEK CA 789, PEK-PVG CA A332, PVG-ORD MU 77W, ORD-MEX AM 738
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 22920
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 5:21 pm

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 33):
Boeing's replacement for the 777-200ER is the 787-9, isn't it?

It offers the same capacity when configured in 9-abreast Economy and 6-abreast Business Class.
 
tortugamon
Posts: 6674
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 5:55 pm

I just looked at the numbers and the aircraft age and it appears to me that this A350 order is to replace JAL's 15 772s, 11 77Es, and 7 773s. This reminds me of SQs A350 purchase. As JAL clearly keeps their aircraft beyond 20 years their 77W replacement is most likely not on firm purchase. In fact, other than EK I can't think of an airline that has already ordered an aircraft that will be their 77W replacement. I mention EK because in 2017 they will be retiring some 77Ws and it appears they will use A380s or A350s for those early retirements.

Obviously using the A350 options will be the most likely option for them or even using the A351s to replace their 77Ws and move the 77Ws to 773 routes may make sense as well.

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 33):
Boeing's replacement for the 777-200ER is the 787-9, isn't it?

As stitch mentions above, its seating can be very comparable in certain configurations. However, if an airline wants to slightly grow their capacity (as many airlines do: see 787 replacing 767s) with their 772/77E replacement than the A359 (3m longer) is a great option or if they don't need 100% of the 77E range than the 787-10 (4.5m longer) at 30%+ seat cost improvement would be excellent as well.

I see the 787-10 as an A333, 772, 773, and many 77E replacement.

tortugamon
 
sankaps
Posts: 1692
Joined: Fri Jan 04, 2008 6:51 am

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 6:07 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 31):

There is no way that JAL bought the A350 just because of their experience with the 787.

No of course not, but as has been surmised several times now, their 787 experience partly or wholly contributed to a re-think of their American / Boeing only relationship-based strategy, and allowed Airbus a chance to sell their aircraft on its merits for the first time.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 31):
just like you say in another thread:

"They will buy the best aircraft that can perform the mission at lowest total cost of operation and ownership"

Sure. Except until now for JAL and ANA, the sentence used to read "They will buy the best aircraft BOEING HAS ON OFFER that can perform the mission at lowest total cost of operation and ownership".

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 32):
Still trying to figure out what is wrong with the battery they designed.

Pathetic nonsense. You really do seem to have an irrational problem with Japan, keeping on harping on how over-rated they are and how they deserve to be "snubbed". Do you have any evidence at all GS Yuasa's battery design is wrong? If so, please send it ASAP to the FAA and NTSB, they seem to have missed it!
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 2980
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 6:20 pm

Quoting sankaps (Reply 36):
Do you have any evidence at all GS Yuasa's battery design is wrong? If so, please send it ASAP to the FAA and NTSB, they seem to have missed it!

It is in a steel case. Can you give one other example where an aircraft manufacturer forced to put battery in a steel case.
 
sankaps
Posts: 1692
Joined: Fri Jan 04, 2008 6:51 am

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 6:27 pm

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 37):
It is in a steel case. Can you give one other example where an aircraft manufacturer forced to put battery in a steel case.

So that proves conclusively the battery is at fault then, no possibility of external triggers? Amazing powers of deduction! Like I said, you MUST send this breakthrough insight to the FAA, Boeing, and the NTSB because clearly they have not figured that out yet.
 
tortugamon
Posts: 6674
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 6:40 pm

ANA's upcoming order is said to be for around 35 aircraft to replace older 777s. When I look at their fleet I see 787s replacing 767s and 772s. So that leave 77Es (12) , 773s (7), and 77Ws (22). Their youngest 77W is 9 years old and some they have not even received yet. So I see this order as a 77E and 773 order (19). I have a hard time seeing where 35 comes from.

http://airguideonline.com/2013/10/08...ircraft-to-replace-its-older-777s/

I see the 787-10 as a solid 773 replacement and a capacity upgrade to many 77Es. I also could see a 777-9x replacing a 77W while moving the 77W to regional configuration and swapping out 773s. If ANA does not like what they are seeing with the 787-9/787-10 then the 77E/773 replacement could go to the same A359/A351 combo. Like JAL, I do not see this as a 77W replacement yet but it certainly lays the ground work.

tortugamon
 
Millenium
Posts: 149
Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2012 9:05 pm

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 6:44 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 31):
The 787-10 out ranges the 772 and the 773 and should be an excellent 77E replacement as well.

You are correct that the 777-200 is not a 7400-8500 nm frame so i have removed it from my list below. I absolutely respect your opinion on the 787-10 but for simplicity I have not added it.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 35):
I see the 787-10 as an A333, 772, 773, and many 77E replacement.

I think 787-10 has a special position and might come to replace some of these frames in my list below but only those witch are not used to their full potential. I think it will mostly carve out its own airline route/network sweet spot and many hopes that it will sell in large numbers, in this respect one must say it has had a very good start. So maybe we are in agreement here.  

Aircrafts sold (Updates).
A340-300 = 218 (All serial aircraft produced)
777-200ER = 422 (All serial aircraft produced)
787-9 = 391 (No serial aircraft produced)
A350-900 = 499 (No serial aircraft produced) Figure includes SAS and JAL orders (8 18) not included in Airbus latest order update.

This gives 640 aircrafts to be replaced with 890 aircrafts so far.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 2980
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 6:51 pm

Quoting sankaps (Reply 38):
So that proves conclusively the battery is at fault then, no possibility of external triggers? Amazing powers of deduction! Like I said, you MUST send this breakthrough insight to the FAA, Boeing, and the NTSB because clearly they have not figured that out yet.

It doesn't exonerate battery either. At some point Boeing should switch battery supplier. SAFT did considerable work for Airbus, Tesla Motors and General Motors are other candidates for a reliable battery.


My response was to this post.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 21):
Jeez Boeing better start kissing ass and letting some NH people on the 77X design board if they wanna sell to them. Otherwise, NH will jump ship and buy the 350.

If somehow JAL thinks this order is a snub against Boeing, they are shooting themselves in the foot. 35% B787 is from Japan.
 
astuteman
Posts: 6340
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 7:25 pm

Quoting sabenapilot (Reply 3):
“The real challenge was getting them to develop confidence in Airbus"... "until this point really knew us hardly at all.”

Thinking laterally - I wonder if this campaign influenced Airbus's decision to switch to Ni-Cad batteries on the A350 for the time being, as part of the "confidence" build ...

Interesting side point...

Quote:
Shares in Airbus-parent EADS, which advanced 2.2 percent yesterday to a record on the order announcement, were trading 31 cents lower today at 49.96 euros as of 9:54 a.m. in Paris. The stock has advanced 69 percent this year.

I wonder where our Australian friend is ...

Quoting Centre (Reply 11):
Airbus followed what the global market wants and they dug in until orders for the 1000 started to pour in, and now they are reaping the benefits of their decision.

  

I tend to be in KarelXWB's camp wondering when they'll be forced to revisit the production arrangements for the A350-1000 ... the "critical" gulf carriers are all rushing to show no sign at all of cancelling their -1000 orders..

Rgds
 
ferpe
Posts: 2651
Joined: Tue Nov 30, 2010 7:44 am

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 7:32 pm

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 37):
It is in a steel case. Can you give one other example where an aircraft manufacturer forced to put battery in a steel case.

Other high capacity Li-ion batteries like in cars, they all have steel cases. The smaller capacity one like in computer pacs should have it if they could, there are several freighter crews lost to these non encapsulated batteries.
Non French in France
 
User avatar
anfromme
Posts: 765
Joined: Sun Feb 19, 2012 5:58 pm

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 7:54 pm

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 41):
If somehow JAL thinks this order is a snub against Boeing, they are shooting themselves in the foot. 35% B787 is from Japan.

a) Why should JAL as a non-government airline care?
b) From all that we know about this order, the 787 wasn't even in the running here.
c) Airbus have announced that they intend to increase their industrial footprint in Japan.

It's also strange how when people suggested that LH would order all-Airbus for political/industrial reasons (because of Airbus' bigger industrial footprint in Germany, compared to Boeing), they presented that as negative, while now, with JAL suddenly ordering Airbus instead of Boeing, we are being reminded that it would have been wiser for JAL to order Boeing because of Boeing's bigger industrial footprint (by way of having outsourced work) in Japan. Double standards, anyone?
42
 
User avatar
glideslope
Posts: 1422
Joined: Sun May 30, 2004 8:06 pm

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 8:29 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 30):
This Airbus boss knew exactly what he was doing. he played every single card right with the Japanese. This dude is a genius. Maybe Boeing needs some management shake-ups.

Too late.
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
User avatar
KarelXWB
Crew
Posts: 19429
Joined: Sun Jul 15, 2012 6:13 pm

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 8:44 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 12):
What will be interesting to see is if NH also orders the A350-900. Unlike JL, their domestic 777-200s are 9-abreast in Economy and NH;s original conversion of 15 787-8s to 787-9s was to replace those domestic 777-200s. NH have subsequently added another 15 787-9s, which is more than sufficient to replace their international 777-200ERs.

A related question: the JAL A350 order is for 772/773 replacement. Which aircraft in the JAL will the 787-9 replace? All 787s on order will be delivered long before 777 retirement starts.

[Edited 2013-10-08 13:46:31]
Close, but no cigar http://vine.co/v/OjqeYWWpVWK
 
airlinebuilder
Posts: 202
Joined: Sun Nov 04, 2012 1:37 pm

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 8:44 pm

This is a major eye opener for Boeing-for sometime there has been way too much confidence and complacency over at Seattle.

In this conjuncture, I am really interested as to what Boeing has to offer other than the 7778-9 project other than elastically stretching the 737 787s
 
sankaps
Posts: 1692
Joined: Fri Jan 04, 2008 6:51 am

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 8:49 pm

Quoting anfromme (Reply 44):
b) From all that we know about this order, the 787 wasn't even in the running here.

That may well be true but thanks at least partly to the 787, Airbus was for the first time genuinely in the running. And I think that is what the "linkage" boils down to.
 
JA743J
Posts: 34
Joined: Mon Sep 09, 2013 3:53 pm

RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2

Tue Oct 08, 2013 9:17 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 46):
A related question: the JAL A350 order is for 772/773 replacement. Which aircraft in the JAL will the 787-9 replace? All 787s on order will be delivered long before 777 retirement starts.

777 retirement should start pretty soon. Oldest domestic 772 are delivered in 1996, so by the time 789 arrives, it would be close to its retirement age. Since there is no way those 772 can survive until 2019, which A350 delivary starts, 789 shoud replace domestic 772.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: aflyingkiwi, Alexa [Bot], Andy33, Baidu [Spider], flipdewaf, NolaMD88fan, pdx, PlanesNTrains, qf789, robsaw, sassiciai, shamrock350, UAEflyer, Unflug, Yahoo [Bot] and 226 guests