astuteman
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Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 5:03 am

Assuming all goes to plan, all Airbus's current programmes should be complete by 2017, and their engineering resources winding down in 2015/2016.

Airbus will need to start developing something soon, if for no other reason than to maintain its engineering competence

This thread is to discuss and explore the possibilities open to them and the requirements the marketplace is driving

My own twocents ...
I can't see them doing anything major on narrowbodys. They might "slow-burn" a capability enhancement to the A321NEO to make it truly TATL I guess, but I don't see that as "a major programme".

Twin-aisles...
I think most of us accept that the A350-800 in its current form is sub-optimised.
Airbus could launch a re-work of the A358 to make it fully competitive with the 787-8/9 at the bottom end of the range.

Mid-range - the A350-900R and -900F are possibilities - the former I see as almost a freebie on the back of the A350-1000, the latter I don't see as Airbus's next most pressing priority.

upper range - I guess the choice is between a "simple stretch" A350-1100, and a complete new growth variant with a 70-odd m wing and 330-340t MTOW

For the A380 the only real options out there are re-engine and/or -900 stretch, or possibly both. As I don't see the A380 going away any time soon, I expect one or both of these to happen by about 2022

Over to you guys

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XT6Wagon
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 5:24 am

Quoting astuteman (Thread starter):
For the A380 the only real options out there are re-engine and/or -900 stretch, or possibly both. As I don't see the A380 going away any time soon, I expect one or both of these to happen by about 2022

I think the A380 has to be next. It needs a front to rear clean up to reduce production costs and improve performance. It will have nearly 20 years of tech to achieve that with. New engines I don't see, but again work the technology in without triggering a full and very expensive certification. I don't see this making profit for Airbus, but I see them still seeing an economic boost since they won't be paying those massive overhead costs across declining sales.

The A350 programs to me don't make sense yet. If these ideas are good why are they not done today? The short time frame doesn't leave enough performance growth through technology that would make new models of the A350 worth while.
 
bill142
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 5:31 am

Begin concepts for a new supersonic aircraft. It's the next logical path for aircraft development.
 
BlueSky1976
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 5:35 am

If I remember correctly, their next "big" project will be replacement of A320 family, after 2025. When NEO was studied, Airbus stated it is an interim project until new material technology is mature enough to be used in construction of their new aircraft. That's why there is no other significant change to A320, except for new engines and whatever reinforcements are there necessary to support their installation.

A380 will be a dog - I do not see any stretch/reengine in the future.

"A350-1100" will be interesting thing to watch. A350-900F is a given, provided that cargo market recovers.
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scbriml
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 5:36 am

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 1):
The A350 programs to me don't make sense yet.

I'd agree re the -900R. I'm not convinced the sales will be there to justify it. The -900F however is IMHO, a certainty.

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 1):
If these ideas are good why are they not done today?

For exactly the same reason Boeing didn't do the 787-3 , -8, -9, -10 and -F from day one - lack of engineering resources and the desire to spread the financial burden.
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NAV20
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 5:47 am

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 3):
"A350-1100" will be interesting thing to watch.

Agree - all the signs are that the proposed 779x, with 400-plus seats, is creating a whole new (large) market. Because of the long 'lead-time' - not in service until 2020 or so - Airbus have time to develop a counter; either a 'second stretch' of the A359, or a new model.
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sweair
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 5:49 am

A 752ish A321/A322 would sell very well by the time 767s, 757s and A300s are seriously leaving the market. Smallest WB option would be a 763ER or a 788. Way too much capability for some routes flown today, waste of energy and cycles on a WB frame IMO. With a larger wing the A321 would shine.
 
panais
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 5:55 am

Quoting astuteman (Thread starter):
Airbus could launch a re-work of the A358 to make it fully competitive with the 787-8/9 at the bottom end of the range.

I support this as well.

Quoting astuteman (Thread starter):
upper range - I guess the choice is between a "simple stretch" A350-1100, and a complete new growth variant with a 70-odd m wing and 330-340t MTOW

I support the A350-1100 simple stretch. Stretched enough to perform 80% of the 779-X routes.

Quoting astuteman (Thread starter):
For the A380 the only real options out there are re-engine and/or -900 stretch, or possibly both.

I say both. You probably need the stretch that will justify the new engines and vice versa. My understanding is that engine replacement on the A380 should be easier as pylons are the same for whichever type of engine.

I see two new projects or maybe two in one. By 2018 Airbus should start considering the replacement of the A330-200 (the A330-300 size will be taken care of by the A350-800 optimisation project) and the A320. These will be 2025 EIS for the 230-270 seat capacity and 2027 EIS for the 160-220 capacity.

Are they going to be one family or two? how are they going to look like? I do not know, that's why they need to start in 2018 to deliver something in 2025.
 
sweair
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 6:00 am

They could split the A320 series in to two, A319-21 and A322/223, the later being 752/753 sized, with better lift and more thrust. Should be able to cover the market up until the 788 starts to shine.
 
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seahawk
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 6:13 am

I think they will work on a A321-200X or something to get the 757 replacement market. A350-1100 seems likely and probably a MLU for the whale. Then it will be the A320 replacement, depending on the when the next engien generation will be defined.
 
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N14AZ
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 6:28 am

There is a new article on aerotelegraph from today, in which CEO Enders is quoted with saying "the first in the row is the A 380, see link below, unfortuantely in German

http://www.aerotelegraph.com/airbus-...serer-a350-ergaenzung-angebot-a380
 
NAV20
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 6:52 am

Hi N14AZ! I think the speech was actually made in Sydney! English version below:-

"Enders was asked if the latest technology being incorporated in the Airbus A350XWB family and proposed for the Boeing 777-X series would not erode the A380 cost per seat per unit of distance and acquisition cost per seat advantage by the end of this decade and said there was an immense amount of growth and efficiency yet to be realised in the giant Airbus, but, he cautioned, “at the right time”.

"He said “There is no need to rush to do this, but …. the A380-800 is the first of the family.”

“I won’t discuss here such details,” he said, “but I can discuss the trends to larger jets within a family such as the A320, and that the A380 is the first of the line.”

"Rather than the first and last, as quite a lot of international commentary has been claiming in advance of the formal launching of the Boeing 777-X anticipated next month.

------------------------

"He said without elaboration that the A350 line could be stretched in size beyond its current largest model on offer the 1000."


http://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalk...ger-and-best-yet-to-come-for-a380/

Looks to me as if the decision has already been made - he's planning to upgrade the A380 soonest, and then counter the B777Xs only with an extra stretch of the A350?
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tortugamon
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 6:53 am

I would optimize the A358 first. Then turn my attention away from A350 and let it mature up and put a serious dent into the backlog. In the mean time I would look at the A380 to see if a new engine and a weight elimination scrub could work to get its efficiency solidly down below the A351. I don't see an A389 in the cards in the near future. Depending on how that project turns out I would look to the A350 and if everything is light and bright look into the A359/A35F but I wouldn't push it if there was not room in production because an A350-1100 with a new wing and engine mid/late next decade could benefit the A359R/F if they could not be fit in earlier. Similar to the 77W program leading to the launch of the 77L and 77F. I think that would take us pretty close to the A320 replacement late next decade.

...If I could see a new program it would be a new A300 CFRP and regional aircraft with 5knm range and a simple stretch with ~4,400nm range. Something that could take more passengers and fly them further, with some cargo, beyond an A321 TATL NEO but well below A359R territory. Updated engines that would beat Trent Tens and lighter engine and airframe compared to the 788. I personally do not see A359R and 787-10s controlling all of the new regional market in Asia in 10 years. If US traffic picks up there will be a limit to the role of the 737 Max 9s and A321 NEOs can play and I don't see 788s flying domestic routes too soon. It could be that the NSA will grow to accommodate so that would need to be considered.

tortugamon
 
sweair
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 6:59 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 12):

For me the A322 would need to make it 4500nm with 220-230 seats installed, a viable option on many routes IMO. 3-3 seating is ok on long haul IMO. What is lacking is a NB cfrp wing, wingbox, bigger gears and a GTF in the 40K thrust clas. If they could retain weight about the current A321 and still grow capability it would be a winner.
 
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 8:30 am

Quoting sweair (Reply 13):
For me the A322 would need to make it 4500nm with 220-230 seats installed, a viable option on many routes IMO. 3-3 seating is ok on long haul IMO. What is lacking is a NB cfrp wing, wingbox, bigger gears and a GTF in the 40K thrust clas. If they could retain weight about the current A321 and still grow capability it would be a winner.

I would like to see the numbers behind the narrow and wide body form. The ability to carry LD3s is an advantage I think and I am not sure if a narrow body is the right way to go. It certainly would be lighter. Either way this is the kind of thinking I would do if I were at Airbus because its a big jump in range/capacity to get to the A350 from the A320 even with the TATL NEO capabilities.

tortugamon
 
Flyglobal
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 8:57 am

I am with some others:

1) As with Enders, the A380 is next: add newest 'twin WB' engine technology for the 4 A380 engines.
Plus minor to middle refinements to increase efficiency. Not necessarily a stretch in stretch in the first step.
This will be around the 777X entry to market or 1-2 years later.

2) The A310-321 is in my opinion good enough to cover also the 2nd GEN GTF engines. But I would expect Airbus to develop something like a mid range plane based on the 320 series. A325-800 and 900 based on the A320 fuselage, but a new high lift CRFP wing and adopted GTF engine probably in the 5000-5500nm range.
My 325.800 would have a A320 based fuselage length between 320 and 321 - so around 42m. then the 900 would be rather around 50m. This would not be a direct replacement of the 788, but the most efficient trans atlantic mid range plane and filling the gap to the A350 line.

3) The 777x competitor to close the gap between A350-1000 and the A380. The A350-1100 in 80m length.
Instead of a simple stretch (which could be offered too as A350R)), I would expect an optimized larger wing, probably taking on the folding wing system similar as proposed for the 777x.

4) is probably an optimized A350-800 2nd. GEN.

Regards

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BaconButty
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 9:05 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 5):
Agree - all the signs are that the proposed 779x, with 400-plus seats, is creating a whole new (large) market.

I'm completely missing these signs....
I'd put money on them letting the -1000 mature and gain payload range before stretching it. You really don't have to have a 1:1 match with your competitors line up.

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 3):
If I remember correctly, their next "big" project will be replacement of A320 family, after 2025.

The consensus among suppliers is that that has slipped post-NEO to 2030 or beyond. That's at least 16 years between greenfield projects - there's no way they'll allow that to happen, even if it means tackling a niche market with relatively little return. Smack in the middle is 2022 - ripe for launch in 2015. But what will it be?
My bet - Something in the A300 and early A330 space. Launched in parallel with the A380-900 which will EIS in 2019, which I expect to be a big seller (fleet replacement for existing operators + new markets).

One more possibility - filling the "double gap" between the A320 and A321. Two variants at the same length - one based on the A320 weights/engines/wing the other on the A321. The lighter variant is the CASM king, the heavier is genuine TATL. Right at the 199 pax sweet spot for LCCs, too.
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na
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 9:27 am

That the A380 needs new engines latest by 2021 is obvious. It should be the most important project for Airbus after the A350-1000 is flying. By 2020 it´ll be 15 years since first flight, and 15 years without major improvements is a long time. I think the A380-900 should only be launched with these new engines unless they can sell 100 without it.
That Airbus needs to be ready to counter the 777-9X if needed is also obvious. Unless they can convince airlines that the A350-1000 is enough for 90% or more of the 779 missions. If so, the leaner A350 will be the clear winner in this fight. The 777-8X is no real threat anyway, and the risk that the 777X might become the 748I of the 2020s cant be wiped from the table as of now.
One thing to consider is also a A350 freighter as the A330F isnt a good seller at all.
When that is done the next project will be the A320 family replacement which should take place anytime after 2025.

Leaves one thing - whats with the huge gap between the A321 and the A330-200/A350-800?
 
Motorhussy
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 10:03 am

Quoting BaconButty (Reply 16):
My bet - Something in the A300 and early A330 space.
Quoting na (Reply 17):
whats with the huge gap between the A321 and the A330-200/A350-800?
Quoting tortugamon (Reply 14):
its a big jump in range/capacity to get to the A350 from the A320 even with the TATL NEO capabilities.
Quoting tortugamon (Reply 12):
If I could see a new program it would be a new A300 CFRP and regional aircraft with 5knm range and a simple stretch with ~4,400nm range.
Quoting panais (Reply 7):
By 2018 Airbus should start considering the replacement of the A330-200

I agree with the above. The 787 was originally mooted to capture much of this market but as we've seen it grew beyond its original mandate and left a gap in the market.
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AirbusA6
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 10:16 am

Politically the A380 was such a statement of intent, that Airbus won't let it wither and die, so there will definitely be developments.

There definitely is a developing gap between the A321/739 and the smallest widebodies. The 789 and A358 are pretty large aircraft, and a big step up from the 767 especially. Whether ths market is large enough for a modern 767/A300 sized plane for use on regional routes and less busy long haul routes is another matter...
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mildaiv
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 10:51 am

Quoting astuteman (Thread starter):

For the A380 the only real options out there are re-engine and/or -900 stretch, or possibly both. As I don't see the A380 going away any time soon, I expect one or both of these to happen by about 2022

If they reengine what engines they use? As for RR it will probably be some Trent XWB or Trent Ten derivate. But I dont see any suitable engine family from competitors. Maybe PW will see this as oportunity for first member of new GTF family for WB, which can later found its place on B787 NEO and/or A350 NEO. GTF technology will be well tested at that time, and as Lightsaber.. ehm PW promised, GTF will bring more advantages on larger engines than on smaller ones.
 
parapente
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 10:55 am

Reply 15
I am with some others:

As am I. If only because this is what Enders has said!
A380
Power Plant.
I do see RR offering a major upgrade- not sure about a total re engine with XWB's as it is often a biiger job than it appears on this forum (but could be wrong - often am). But I imagine a huge amount of the Trent XWB technology could be inserted into the 900 engine.The 350-1000's engine development is all about the triple spool core (rather than the cold front end) so it can be done.
Wing.
I feel sure that they will try and improve the wingtip area with all their learnings in this area (but accept that total wingspan is an issue here.They have improved the wing slightly already (twist) too.
Weight.
They are still working on reduing the total weight of the aircraft which will also improve all aspects of performance.
Size.
I can't see the 900 stretch at the moment. It would only be (mainly) for one (EK) airline so they would neeed to order alot to persuade A to do it.
Pax.
With 88 rows of very spacious Y seating I fear the simple route would to do am 'EK' 773 to Y class and add an extra seat per row and even reduce pitch a little if necessary. This way you would get between 80 -90 additional pax. The plane has been certificated for higher weights and the other changes would mantain existing range.

A321.
As stated try for TATL range within the existing scope of the aircraft.

A350. As stated .Clearly when they went for a major redesign of the 1000 they would have built the possibility of a 1100 into it - which they have effectively confirmed.

A330/A 358.
Thats the tricky one! Obviously they have enjoyed a bumper few years with the 787 problems. But they must soon be overcome one imagines. If they do 'drop' the 358 model then a clear new segment opens up.But thy would have to do something 'super special' to beat the 787. I can not see a 'conventional' design besting the 787.
I think they may try and soldier on with the (near enough) free -8 shrink and some small improvements to the A333 (as they are doing).
But if I had to guess re a brand new project in (say) 5-10 years time - this would be it.
 
NAV20
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 11:41 am

Quoting BaconButty (Reply 16):
I'm completely missing these signs....

Lufthansa has already signed up for 34 779X, BaconButty. And Emirates are negotiating too; with rumours saying that they may order more than 100 of them:-

"Clark said Boeing is “still a bit aggressive on pricing” for the 777-9X model that Emirates is eyeing as a replacement for “some or all” of its 175 current-model 777 jets, which includes 61 outstanding orders. The 777-9X is the larger of the two models being developed by Boeing and will seat around 400 passengers.

“If we order the 9X, we’ll be ordering a large chunk of them,” he said in an interview."


http://gulfnews.com/business/aviatio...in-talks-over-777x-order-1.1236317

[Edited 2013-10-16 04:46:08]
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GCT64
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 11:42 am

As this thread is in the nature of a poll of "what do you think they will do?", my expectations:

A380-900 (stretch, new engines) - it needs to move away from the 779/A35J in market positioning
A321NEO+ (good enough to do North East NA to North West EU - e.g. all year round EWR-CDG, BWI-LHR, YYZ-AMS, JFK-BRU). That will offer such low CASM (when in dens-ish configuration) that it will drive growth, LCC entrants and new P2P/P2H routes.
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r2rho
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 11:48 am

Don't forget the new Beluga, too  

In any case, one thing that worries me is that all projects being mentioned are derivatives of existing models - no "greenfield" program is in sight until probably 2027-2030 when NEO replacement comes in (the initial 2025 prediction has shifted to the right IMO). Sure they'll have plenty of derivative programs to keep some engineers busy, but the skillset required to develop an all-new from scratch airplane will inevitably fade...
 
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cougar15
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 11:48 am

as per an article today in the german Aero telegraph , Tom Enders actually states that the ´next big development´ after the A350 will focus on the A380...
Guess that throws a spanner in the works of all those who see "quads" dying , and especially the various other threads
on this subject. below the link, sorry, article is in german only...
http://www.aerotelegraph.com/airbus-...serer-a350-ergaenzung-angebot-a380
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KarelXWB
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 11:49 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 5):
Agree - all the signs are that the proposed 779x, with 400-plus seats, is creating a whole new (large) market. Because of the long 'lead-time' - not in service until 2020 or so - Airbus have time to develop a counter; either a 'second stretch' of the A359, or a new model.

A "whole new large market"? The 779 is a 2.7 meters stretch and adds another 20 seats; the aircraft is a response to the A350-1000.

[Edited 2013-10-16 04:50:44]
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eire123
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 11:57 am

A new carbon composite A320 family, and a possible 757 alternative within that for the transatlantic narrow body routes.
 
nicode
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 12:01 pm

I'm reading "major improvements on the A380" or "next big development on the A380". Could we see an A380 with two engines instead of four ?
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 12:04 pm

Quoting nicode (Reply 29):
I'm reading "major improvements on the A380" or "next big development on the A380". Could we see an A380 with two engines instead of four ?

I doubt you will find an engine maker crazy enough to develop an 150,000 lbf engine.

[Edited 2013-10-16 05:04:37]
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Bongodog1964
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 12:05 pm

Quoting Bill142 (Reply 2):
Begin concepts for a new supersonic aircraft. It's the next logical path for aircraft development.

The door closed on this one nearly as soon as it opened. A few months back two RAF Typhoons went supersonic over the UK, there were complaints galore. Supersonic flight is only a reality for ocean crossings, add in any length of over land flying and its a non starter.
 
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 12:13 pm

A 350 I think they will keep to the time plan and bring out the A 350-800 and A 350-1000 as planed.

Moving the A 350-800 back perhaps will bring a "better, lighter" frame but time is also essential and having the A 350-800 ready when sales for the A 330-300 thin out must be a consideration.
Airbus has a history of improving a frame while producing it, bring it out 2016 and lighten the frame batch by batch.

When all versions are out Airbus will have a look at the backlog and I think not do a further stretch of the A 350 right away, having enough to produce for quite a few years.

The A 380-800 is an ongoing project, it has had major engine PIP's, the weight of the frame has been reduced and there has been work done on the aerodynamics, the biggest part was the change of the wing twist. This will go on now having finished the wing fix regarding cracks.
I do not believe in putting the XWB on the A 380 but I expect both engine producers to come with mark 2 engines where the changes will not be retrofitable to older engines.
I do not expect other major changes to the A 380. If of course a customer (EK) would order a batch of 50 Airbus could produce the A 380-900 as a simple stretch.

The first project IMO Airbus should look at is expanding the A320 with a bigger version range and/or size.
A new wing, bigger engines higher MTOW.
That would perhaps not be a market for many thousands of frames, but additional sales of a some hundreds.

The second project should be a small double aisle frame below the B 787, light and medium range, a modern A 300/310.
There should be a place for a frame being an upgrade to single aisle, next step up without going to the investment of a B 787.

The high end of the dual aisle market is packed with offering of both producers. We will find areas were one is offering a frame and the other not, but I think that it is the strategy of both not to match each other frame by frame.
 
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 12:30 pm

Quoting BaconButty (Reply 16):
The consensus among suppliers is that that has slipped post-NEO to 2030 or beyond.

I could see a scenario, in which the MAX suffers also in the medium/long term so Boeing will actually be the pacemaker and pull the trigger for a new NB program maybe around 2020. In that case Airbus will start shipping a NEO replacement prior 2030.

The best for Airbus would be a slowly eroding 737 customer base and a not so clearly but still failing MAX. The worst a soon and clear market verdict which would force the NSA to be launched much earlier than planned or hoped. There are no signs for the latter, but the former could be realistic...

It was exactly that way how Airbus became so succesful as they are today... There was no apparent failure of Boeing at first sight in the years when Airbus's market share grew the most. Today the combined MDD & Boeing own just about half of the market they ruled for decades by themselves. If you image how the story could happen today, it would be just as if Airbus and Boeing would make no evident mistake and - boom - in 15-20 years COMAC would own half of the world market. We rightfully say "never"! Just like a lot of people would have about Airbus in 1980....
 
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BaconButty
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 12:39 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 23):
Lufthansa has already signed up for 34 779X, BaconButty. And Emirates are negotiating too; with rumours saying that they may order more than 100 of them:-

Wow, an order. I'm off to beat myself with a studded paddle for being so stupid.

Look, the 777X will sell, at least initially: the middle eastern airlines it's tailored for, coupled with the usual political orders will see to that. It may even be a long term success. That's a world away from carving out a new market segment. For Pete's sake, there's still hundreds of 747's flying smack in that space.

Interesting how Zvedza's law (for those who remember it) get's suspended when it suit's though . . .
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NAV20
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 12:41 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 27):
A "whole new large market"? The 779 is a 2.7 meters stretch and adds another 20 seats; the aircraft is a response to the A350-1000.

None of us can know for certain, KarelXWB. But the 779X, if produced, will have a wider fuselage than the A350. My guess is that the 400-plus figure refers to a 'normal' fit-out, with 9-across in coach - but that 10-across is possible, taking the total load well above 400? And that - given a new Al-li fuselage and composite wings, and different engines - the fuel/range equation may be very much improved over the (already very efficient) existing 777s?

What impressed me is that Lufthansa didn't hesitate to place a substantial order - and that Emirates (who would probably win the 'world's most difficult customer' award year after year, if one existed) are very much interested.

As always, 'time will tell'..................
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KarelXWB
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 12:46 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 35):
None of us can know for certain, KarelXWB. But the 779X, if produced, will have a wider fuselage than the A350. My guess is that the 400-plus figure refers to a 'normal' fit-out, with 9-across in coach - but that 10-across is possible, taking the total load well above 400? And that - given a new Al-li fuselage and composite wings, and different engines - the fuel/range equation may be very much improved over the (already very efficient) existing 777s?
Quoting NAV20 (Reply 35):
As always, 'time will tell'..................

Well, as always, you're wrong again. The 407 figure is based on a 10-abreast layout.

Still don't understand why you cannot accept the facts.
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NAV20
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 12:54 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 36):
The 407 figure is based on a 10-abreast layout.

Not in the only article I found on the subject, KarelXWB?
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KarelXWB
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 12:58 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 37):
Not in the only article I found on the subject, KarelXWB?

To which article are you referring?
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dtw2hyd
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 1:02 pm

1) Stop designing aircraft just for Middle East carriers.
2) A380R for China
3) A small capacity(max 250 pax in high-density) long range, basically a skinnier version of A350.
4) Give longer legs to A321NEO

[Edited 2013-10-16 06:06:11]
 
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EPA001
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 1:02 pm

Quoting astuteman (Thread starter):
This thread is to discuss and explore the possibilities open to them and the requirements the marketplace is driving

Which is an excellent idea to discuss this and so far this thread has a high quality of posting.  .

Quoting astuteman (Thread starter):
upper range - I guess the choice is between a "simple stretch" A350-1100, and a complete new growth variant with a 70-odd m wing and 330-340t MTOW

For the A380 the only real options out there are re-engine and/or -900 stretch, or possibly both. As I don't see the A380 going away any time soon, I expect one or both of these to happen by about 2022

Agreed on all parts. I believe the A380 will be greatly improved with 15 year newer technology and could see the EIS at 2022 or so. The A350 needs rework on the -800 version first. Which might be done in 2018-2019 and after 2020 we will see most likley an A350-1100 (simple stretch) and possibly a A350-1100R of -1200. That would be the stretched version with increased performance and new wings/engines to counter the B777-X. That version will take longer to develop, so let's say an EIS of 2022-2024 or something along those timelines.

Quoting panais (Reply 7):
I support the A350-1100 simple stretch. Stretched enough to perform 80% of the 779-X routes.

Will be the easiest to do, and will not require a major investment or work load. But will that be enough to keep the whole R&D departments up and running full scale as they are doing today?

Quoting panais (Reply 7):
I say both. You probably need the stretch that will justify the new engines and vice versa.

   Totally agree. Improve for those who will not want or need to go larger, and stretch for those who can fill that version with unbeatable CASM/RASM possibilities.  .

Quoting seahawk (Reply 9):
I think they will work on a A321-200X or something to get the 757 replacement market.

A likely project imho. But how big will that project be?

Quoting N14AZ (Reply 10):
There is a new article on aerotelegraph from today, in which CEO Enders is quoted with saying "the first in the row is the A 380,

Which is only logical considering the build up of the program of airliners they are offering their current and future customers.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 11):
Looks to me as if the decision has already been made - he's planning to upgrade the A380 soonest, and then counter the B777Xs only with an extra stretch of the A350?

Could be, and it would be a good thing.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 12):

I would optimize the A358 first.

Me too, but that does not necessarily needs to be such a big program. Which again poses the question :"can Airbus keep the R&D departments fully up and running with such a project. They need more imho.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 12):
I don't see an A389 in the cards in the near future.

I do see it. I am firm believer we will see it in the early 2020's.

Quoting na (Reply 17):

That the A380 needs new engines latest by 2021 is obvious. It should be the most important project for Airbus after the A350-1000 is flying.

With the updated A35-800. Then I fully agree with you.  .

Quoting na (Reply 17):
By 2020 it´ll be 15 years since first flight, and 15 years without major improvements is a long time. I think the A380-900 should only be launched with these new engines unless they can sell 100 without it.

Yes, 15 years without major upgrades is a long time. And still only in 2017-2020 the competing airliners A350-1000 and B777-9 can just about equal it's CASM. Which tells us how good the A380 actually is.

Quoting parapente (Reply 22):
Power Plant.
I do see RR offering a major upgrade- not sure about a total re engine with XWB's as it is often a biiger job than it appears on this forum (but could be wrong - often am). But I imagine a huge amount of the Trent XWB technology could be inserted into the 900 engine.The 350-1000's engine development is all about the triple spool core (rather than the cold front end) so it can be done.

Well, since they have a lot of experience with the Trent-XWB on the A380 since they use it as the test bed to test this engine, Airbus will have a very good idea what would be necessary to upgrade to Trent-XWB engines on the A380. I think it is quite likely that they will switch engines, at least on the RR-part. Even now they are still flying tests with that engine even though the first two A350's are in flight test with these engines.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 23):
And Emirates are negotiating too; with rumours saying that they may order more than 100 of them:

Well, but that was always going to happen. But EK also would like 90 more A380's if the airport in Dubai could handle them. But this is about what Airbus R&D might do after 2017.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 27):
A "whole new large market"? The 779 is a 2.7 meters stretch and adds another 20 seats; the aircraft is a response to the A350-1000.

It is Boeings response to the A350-1000 to keep the CASM on par, but it might turn out to be a new niche in the market. But could also develop into something more.
 
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TheRedBaron
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 1:10 pm

LH order has committed Boeing on doing the whole 777X on less than a 50 frames order, my conspiracy mind tells me this order made Boeing show its cards (on development), and now Airbus knows B next move and specs...

My take? they will improve the 330 regional more than they have said, and will improve the 380, now that they know the real gaps in B line.

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EPA001
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 1:16 pm

Quoting TheRedBaron (Reply 41):
My take? they will improve the 330 regional more than they have said

I forgot about the A330. There is still some potential there, especially since they can work with low prices since this program has been so profitable and has paid its investments back multiple times already. But in the longer run the A330 will lose out to the B787 and A358, even if they are larger.

But I do see Airbus continuously working on the A330, maybe even until the next NB will arrive which might span in size from 150 to 250 passengers. But the next NB is due at the late 2020's or early 2030's with the A32X-neo and B737-MAX being so successful now. And these planes will not need replacement before 2027-2030 or so.
 
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 1:23 pm

reply 42 above
I forgot about the A330. There is still some potential there, especially since they can work with low prices since this program has been so profitable and has paid its investments back multiple times already.

I would have thought that the low hanging fruit (and Airbus has discussed this) is adding blended winglets (or even 'feathers').The wing is already stressed for it. Should get them 3%.
I think someone said somewhere that they can also 'easily' take out the unnecessary structures used for the a340 which are now redundant.Another 1% perhaps?
Any (core) engine PIP's based on the latest engines like the Trent XWB perhaps (1%?)
OK it's not 787 levels of efficiency but it's cheaper and available sooner (much sooner unless Boeing gets its 787 production act together)
 
NAV20
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 1:27 pm

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 40):
Quoting N14AZ (Reply 10):There is a new article on aerotelegraph from today, in which CEO Enders is quoted with saying "the first in the row is the A 380,
Which is only logical considering the build up of the program of airliners they are offering their current and future customers.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 11):Looks to me as if the decision has already been made - he's planning to upgrade the A380 soonest, and then counter the B777Xs only with an extra stretch of the A350?

Could be, and it would be a good thing.

The Airbus marketing guys will know their own market best, I guess. They'll know, from prospective buyers, not only what we know - that the A380 isn't selling; but also WHY it isn't selling.
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BaconButty
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 1:54 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 44):
The Airbus marketing guys will know their own market best, I guess. They'll know, from prospective buyers, not only what we know - that the A380 isn't selling; but also WHY it isn't selling.

And whether it's about to start selling again.
 
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EPA001
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 2:01 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 44):
They'll know, from prospective buyers, not only what we know - that the A380 isn't selling; but also WHY it isn't selling.

Slow selling, not "not selling". The year is not over yet.  .

But again, this is about the future projects Airbus might take on after the A32X-neo-program and the A350-program are more or less finished as big projects and only minor further improvements are to be expected in these programs.
 
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 2:33 pm

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 46):
But again, this is about the future projects Airbus might take on after the A32X-neo-program and the A350-program are more or less finished

Agreed about the A320, EPA001 - Airbus definitely has a winner there.

The A350 programme looks quite good on present evidence - but it's nowhere near 'mature' yet; no aircraft in service. The A330 is more or less 'holding the fort.'

It does LOOK, on present evidence, as if Enders has 'been advised' that the 'midsize segment' is OK for the moment, and priority should be given to an A380 upgrade? Meaning that there's no need to accelerate design/production of any counter to the 778X/779X?

'Time will tell' - but my own view is that not immediately seeking to counter the 'new generation' 777s - particularly the 779X - and instead opting for an A380 upgrade, may turn out to be a mistake?
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KarelXWB
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 2:37 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 47):
'Time will tell' - but my own view is that not immediately seeking to counter the 'new generation' 777s - particularly the 779X - and instead opting for an A380 upgrade, may turn out to be a mistake?

They already have the A350-1000. Again, the 777X is Boeing's answer to the larger A350, not the other way around.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 47):
and instead opting for an A380 upgrade

Airbus can do multiple programs at once.

[Edited 2013-10-16 07:41:39]
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Aviaponcho
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 2:38 pm

Let's go

A320 family
- weight saving, laser welding in some panels, change in alloys ? -> (experience from A380) free flow til 2020
- new wing for A321 TATL+ -> 2020 ? (could be CFRP ou alumium ?)

A330
- weight saving, laser welding in some panels, change in alloys for panel (experience from A380)? -> free flow til 2020
- noise package (ICAO stage 5 and 242 t ? can it be ?
- new interior ? -> linked with a revival of A300/A310

A350
- optimized A350-800 (but will increase pavement loading with the narrow bogie) -> 2018-2019
- A350-1100 "simple" stretch -> 2020-2021

A380
- optimized cabin (11 abreast), optimized cabin crew rest
- A380-900 2020, with some new engines ? (need to announce it soon). The key is the first wave of EK A380 to replace

A310NG
- improved A330 cross section (wider with less insulation) or A350 cross section
- new wing
- more électric
2021-2022
Might be a place for a medium power GTF in the 45-55 000 lbf

My guess
 
Cactus105
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RE: Airbus - Next Projects?

Wed Oct 16, 2013 2:44 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 13):
What is lacking is a NB cfrp wing, wingbox, bigger gears and a GTF in the 40K thrust clas

  

I don't see the A321 going any further without the addition of these items. It's a great airplane, but any stretching of the current airframe/design would require bigger struts for sure. Engines would have to be totally revamped too, as the current 321's are pretty poor on performance as it is (at MTOW).
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