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Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Tue Oct 22, 2013 10:58 pm

Here we go with part 5. Part four is archived but available for viewing here: Frontier TTN Thread Part 4 (by Jerseyguy Jul 25 2013 in Civil Aviation)
 
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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Tue Oct 22, 2013 11:07 pm

I was at the Pearl Jam show at the Wells Fargo Center last night in Philly. Huge Frontier airlines advertisements all around the Sports Complex on I-95 promoting TTN on those electric billboards.
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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Tue Oct 22, 2013 11:28 pm

From the previous thread:

"Any further expansion is probably not possible right now without a resolution of some kind to the NIMBYs."

Oh, probably, but I can't imagine what that resolution would be, other than to say that other places have fought this battle and there has always been a resolution.

Really, the only point of my list was to show that Frontier still has many potential choices from TTN, and I left out more than a few.

At some point, I guess they'll have to come to terms with the Gulf Coast - PNS or ECP perhaps, but there's also MOB, which presently has no service to the northeast at all (and which is where Airbus is building a vast new plant to build A320's, maybe some for Frontier - LOL) or maybe GSP.

North Carolina is pretty well covered (will they connect GSO to TTN?) but there's nothing to South Carolina yet. Ohio's getting there, but then there's Kentucky or Tennessee. - I dunno if Delta's latest, just announced cuts at MEM mean anything for Frontier, but maybe.

As to the terminal space - a year ago, I doubt anyone would have guessed there would be this level of service or the improvements that you list. I've no idea what the next twelve months will bring.

I suppose the biggest surprise to me is that given the high levels of air service on the East Coast, there are still so many opportunities and without treading on too many toes.

mariner

[Edited 2013-10-22 16:34:00]
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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Wed Oct 23, 2013 12:12 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 2):
At some point, I guess they'll have to come to terms with the Gulf Coast - PNS or ECP perhaps, but there's also MOB

Because airframe availability seems to be an issue If TTN-MEM pans out perhaps their might be some sort of partner agreement with http://www.iflysouthern.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=pubDsp.dspRouteMap Southern flies to several Gulf Coast communities from Memphis. A little airport tweaking makes it possible.

Southern Airways Express flies into and out of secondary airports thus they would have to commit to MSY and MEM for two. I believe they operate as a charter operation under FAA guidelines.
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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Wed Oct 23, 2013 12:52 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 2):
Oh, probably, but I can't imagine what that resolution would be, other than to say that other places have fought this battle and there has always been a resolution.

I guess what I meant was the FAA needs to give a definitive answer about an EIS and Mercer County (TTN) needs to know how far they can go without an EIS. Do temporary (modular) strutures not require an EIS (would a LGB trailer expansion work)? In the end they may just need to do an EIS, except for the fact that I'm sure its costly and time consuming.
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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Wed Oct 23, 2013 3:07 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 2):
North Carolina is pretty well covered (will they connect GSO to TTN?) but there's nothing to South Carolina yet.

It'd be nice for South Carolina like CHS that I mentioned before, but I know in the past (when WN flew PHL-RDU on low fares), many would rent a car at RDU and then be willing to drive 3-4 hours after that, since gasoline is cheap, weather is typically more pleasant in the Carolinas and there are no highway tolls between the regions. So, do RDU and CLT suffice as gateways for both NC and SC and would more service dilute demand to the existing service? I don't know.

Maybe CHS would be nice as an upscale alternative to NK's flights to MYR, as F9 is still a little more upscale than NK atleast right now, and CHS is more upscale as a vacation spot than MYR apparently.

Quoting point2point:

WIth that, a slight revision of the list in order of population of CSA......

BOS, DFW (or maybe too far at about 1350 miles?), MSP, CLE, STL, PIT, CLT, MCI, IND, MKE, BNA, ORF, GSO, JAX, SDF, GRR, GSP, MEM, BHM and even BUF or ROC for about the top 20 or so markets.

Here's my thoughts on a few:
BOS- maybe already covered low fare wise by B6 with EWR/PHL service around TTN but maybe F9 could try it out.

DFW- NK is running low fares out of PHL, and US is matching on advance purchase nonstops and WN on one-stops. TTN's runway maybe too short. I think the frequency would have to be atleast 5x weekly for either IAH or DFW (otherwise pax will choose a flight (direct or connect) at PHL or EWR), and it seems F9 would prefer TTN over ILG, but TTN has the runway issue.

MSP-beyond MDW and into the upper midwest. Longer flight and more risk taken. I can't see it on the radar or likely. WN doesn't even fly BWI-MSP nonstop because even WN knows its a long flight and one where likely more demand is business travel (in this case, preference for DCA) than stimulated demand travel.

But, maybe F9 could get a code-share with Sun Country that flies MDW-MSP. Thus one can do TTN-MDW-MSP and avoid flying WN for whatever reason while still using MDW. F9 and Sun Country are both in C concourse.

I think PIT and CLE are strong contenders. If it flew to TTN-PIT, one could drive to CLE, and CLE pax could drive to PIT. However, if it did TTN-CLE, I don't think PIT pax would drive to CLE to fly to TTN, as it's a backtrack.

Since F9 is already at PHF, maybe it'd do PHF-TTN over ORF. FL used to fly PHF-LGA and PHF-BOS and PHF-TTN could be like a NYC/Philly access.

GRR would be interesting as US lacks even PHL-GRR and service to Michigan is limited to just DTW from PHL. I know some that trek to BWI, connect in ORD or fly to DTW and rent a car just because of lack of PHL-GRR service and none are great options. There is EWR-GRR but the fares are ridiculous, over $1000.

[Edited 2013-10-22 20:17:52]
 
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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Wed Oct 23, 2013 3:37 am

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 5):
I think PIT and CLE are strong contenders.

It cost $31 in tolls and $40-50 in gas each way to drive to PIT from the TTN area, and PIT is only an hour plane ride from TTN, F9 could do a round trip in 3 hours, not very long to be missing an aircraft. Plus all the consturction on the PA Turnpike is tiring. Would F9 consider Youngstown. 1:15-1:20 to Pittsburgh and Cleveland has a terminal with 4 tarmac gates and even 2 Jetbridges. Costs would be lower. Alliegant flies to FL from there.

[Edited 2013-10-22 20:48:13]
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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Wed Oct 23, 2013 4:22 am

Daniel Shurz addressing the business lunch:

http://www.nj.com/mercer/index.ssf/2...ead_at_trenton-mercer_airport.html

"Frontier Airlines executive: Blue skies ahead at Trenton-Mercer Airport

“We keep telling the airport that whatever additional capacity they make available, we’ll keep putting more planes in to use up the capacity,” Shurz said."


Not a lot of hard route news - still investigating non-stops to DEN (they want to do it, obviously) and a wee bit of talk about BOS.

But good stuff.

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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Wed Oct 23, 2013 4:23 am

Interesting article about a speech given at a Trenton Small Business luncheon by Daniel Schurz (Senior VP). I was going to actually go to this luncheon but I figured rightly there would be an article about his comments.

A few quote worthy comments

“We keep telling the airport that whatever additional capacity they make available, we’ll keep putting more planes in to use up the capacity,” Shurz said.
(WOW)

Also about BOS service (and other places within a 5 hour drive)
Frontier is hesitant about flying up to the Boston area because it is less that a 5-hour drive, and that tends to reduce the demand for flights, but the airline has considered it, Shurz said.

Quote on TTN-DEN service
The airline is also looking at how it can build a direct flight to Denver into the future plans at Trenton-Mercer, Shurz said, not only because the city is a great destination but also because it would present customers with the opportunity to take advantage of many connecting flights. Frontier is based in Denver and a direct flight from Trenton-Mercer to Denver would open connections as far as California, Alaska and Cancun.

http://www.nj.com/mercer/index.ssf/2...ead_at_trenton-mercer_airport.html

Edited to say: seems Mariner beat me by about a minute to this.

[Edited 2013-10-22 21:25:30]
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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Wed Oct 23, 2013 3:10 pm

Quoting Jerseyguy (Reply 6):
It cost $31 in tolls and $40-50 in gas each way to drive to PIT from the TTN area, and PIT is only an hour plane ride from TTN,

I wonder if State College in PA might be a better choice over PIT. State College is an hour drive from PIT. I still think F9 or perhaps even the TTN airport should consider entering into some sort of agreement with Megabus to stop at select airports. Megabus is widely recognized as the ULCC in motor coach travel.

Quoting mariner (Reply 7):

Quoting Shurz from the article "Frontier is hesitant about flying up to the Boston area because it is less than a 5-hour drive",

From my perch 6-7 hours bwtween TTN and BOS is more realistic at the wrong time of day w. I-95 in northern Jersey and the NYC area is atrocious. My driving route of choice which takes me across the Hudson on the Tappan Zee bridge has been known to back-up. Add to that the condition of I-95 in and around Providence area north of PVD to the Mass state-line was pothole (crater) ridden last year which slowed us down.

I use to drive from the North End area of Boston to the northern Maryland suburbs avoiding I-95 corridor for a more north mid Jersey Interstate in no less than 10-11 hours driving down Highway 15 through Harrisburg and Gettysburg.

Reading between the lines of Mr. Shurz statement about TTN-BOS takes on the appearance and potentally squashes PVD which is even closer to BOS driving the I-95 corridor.

I wonder if HVN might be an alternate airport roughly and hour between NYC and PVD and within the catchment area of two Ivy league schools; Yale and Brown. F9 seems to like Ivy league towns with Princeton and to a certain extent William & Mary near PHF.

I saw no less than seven flights today between TTN-HVN today on a BE20 puddle jumper which might indicate a need http://flightaware.com/live/flight/N636B
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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Wed Oct 23, 2013 8:15 pm

Here's a shot of the progress being made on the 3rd major parking lot at TTN (it seems too big to be the small lot for cellphone use



For perspective on how big it is (From Google maps)
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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Wed Oct 23, 2013 10:06 pm

Quoting Jerseyguy (Reply 10):
(it seems too big to be the small lot for cellphone use

I saw that lot, too, during my last drive by. Wasn't there supposed to be a new "Employee Lot"? Could that be it? Seems maybe big for that, too (unless Frontier needs more space for local staff and crew). I assume that they'd keep the rental car parking closer in than that, but you never know.

On a separate topic, the prior schedule seemed to have two FR planes RON'ing at TTN. Wonder which of the local hotels picked up the business, or are some of the crews really somewhat local? With the expansion, do you think we'll see more than two planes overnight?

And last, I looked at the official Trenton Mercer site, and saw the listing of flights which landed between Midnight and 6am (during the voluntary curfew). I think there were 6 FR flights that came in at odd hours. Did the county actually run the parking shuttle buses at 2:45am (June 15)?

http://www.state.nj.us/counties/merc...artments/airport/air_activity.html
 
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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Thu Oct 24, 2013 12:29 am

Quoting n75jyv (Reply 11):
Did the county actually run the parking shuttle buses at 2:45am (June 15)?

Don't know for sure but when they mentioned how much the shuttle cost (I think it was $40,000 a month), they said it was for 20 hours 7 days a week. So what does that mean does it run from 6:00am to 2:00am the following morning, if so then I'm sure they would have held it for 45 minutes to accommodate the late inbound flight. Plus that may not have been a passenger flight at all, I know that they've had repo(sitioning) flights to replace one that was having a mechanical issue. I know on the May 24th 4:50am was a repo flight from Denver

Quoting n75jyv (Reply 11):
I saw that lot, too, during my last drive by. Wasn't there supposed to be a new "Employee Lot"? Could that be it? Seems maybe big for that, too (unless Frontier needs more space for local staff and crew). I assume that they'd keep the rental car parking closer in than that, but you never know.

Hmm..I don't know, based on my calculations with TSA, Mercer County Sherrifs Department, WFS (Frontier contractor) and the rental cars, you'd need atleast 50-65 spaces plus room for the cell phone lot. They had 630 spaces in the main lot in front of the terminal and 240 spaces in the secondary terminal lot. If they doubled that which I think is possible based on the amount of free space they had that would leave 115 spaces for the lot in question which might be right. It very well might be the Cell Phone/Employee/Rental Car lot.

Quoting n75jyv (Reply 11):
On a separate topic, the prior schedule seemed to have two FR planes RON'ing at TTN. Wonder which of the local hotels picked up the business, or are some of the crews really somewhat local? With the expansion, do you think we'll see more than two planes overnight?

Atleast during the Spring Break Period (Mid-February to End of April), I believe they will have 3 planes RONing there. Whether that stays after the end of the SB period is the question. Daniel Schurz did say whatever capacity they are given they will use so its possible they will keep the 3rd plane and announce a few (2-3) new destinations for the summer starting in May.

Oh and to answer your question about where the crew stays. On my return flight from Chicago in May, I did see flight crew get on a hotel shuttle bus. I believe it was the SpringHill Suites in Ewing which is less than 2 miles away in a corporate park. http://www.marriott.com/hotels/trave...hill-suites-ewing-princeton-south/

[Edited 2013-10-23 17:32:32]
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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Thu Oct 24, 2013 12:48 am

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 9):
From my perch 6-7 hours bwtween TTN and BOS is more realistic at the wrong time of day w. I-95 in northern Jersey and the NYC area is atrocious.

4 hours is pretty reasonable if you hit no traffic and go with the flow of traffic much less from north jersey. I just dont see the demand on that route at all for frontier. Amtrak is the answer for someone who doenst want to drive and on that route people are gonna want and be use to frequency. Amtrak is awesome on that route and very affordable if you book ahead and have AAA. Frontier has no business flying TTN-BOS and their model wouldnt work on that route its way too close and amtrak is too good. Frontier is NOT getting or looking for business travellers, the leisure crowd on that route is gonna take amtrak or just drive for the weekend. TTN is much better for less than daily leisure travellers who are flying to destinations where they are flexible on dates/times aka vacationers or visiting family. They cannot support business travel nor is that the market anyone thinks Frontier is getting at TTN they are ULCC leisure especially out of TTN. BOS is probably the best example of a market they shoudln't fly from TTN IMHO.
 
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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Thu Oct 24, 2013 1:28 am

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 9):
Quoting Shurz from the article "Frontier is hesitant about flying up to the Boston area because it is less than a 5-hour drive",


TTN-BOS is obviously on their minds and on the minds of some of their pax - why else would DS even mention it?

I think there's an answer, but I'll leave them to sort it out.  

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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Thu Oct 24, 2013 9:47 am

It is 3 hours to the Bronx with no traffic. 4.5 hours is the minimum to the Trenton area and 5.5 to 6 hours is more like it under standard conditions. BOS is potentially a Massport issue with space and/or price.
 
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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Thu Oct 24, 2013 6:42 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 14):
TTN-BOS is obviously on their minds and on the minds of some of their pax - why else would DS even mention it?

I suspect BOS is being discussed because NK offers service there. Even though Franke has a sold his stake in NK; he will probably want to tread lightly for a while. A cooling down period of sorts.

F9 and Massport were said to be in a pis*ing contest a few years ago when F9 served the city from DEN. Massport also manages ORH (Worcester, MA ) so I don't think it would be their either if the bru-ha-ha still exist. With that said F9 was under different management,

I personally would like to see F9 set up shop at PVD, PSM, MHT in that order. I think PSM is a no brainer seasonally. I think PVD to the south and PSM to the north takes car of BOS and everything in between. Maine tourism who drive NH/Maine Route 1 (the Maine coastal route) catch route 1 not to far from PSM. PWM is forty miles north and requires a easterly deviation to connect up with Route 1. I-95 and the Maine Turnpike are very toll driven.

As we arm chair potentially new markets I think we should look at markets not currently served by NK, BOS is one of those markets http://www.spirit.com/RouteMaps.aspx

Quoting JA (Reply 15):

That's more realistic. When I use to commute into Boston from the south shore. Fifteen minutes either side of 6:00 AM made all of the difference at 5:45 I flowed; after 6:00 AM I slowed. It was a good 4.5 hours from BOS to the Hudson.
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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Thu Oct 24, 2013 7:07 pm

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 16):
I think PVD to the south and PSM to the north takes car of BOS and everything in between.

  

I'm a big fan of PSM, especially in summer.

I remember the battles between Frontier and Massport when they were remodelling Terminal A, which left no gate for Frontier and Massport told 'em to go to MHT or PVD - or pound sand.

I use BOS as a proxy for "New England" and I'd love to see 'em set up shop somewhere instead of BOS. PSM? PVD? MHT? Don't care.

Really, there are so many choices. IND - Republic's home base - being one. And I never understood Frontier's first foray into MEM because it was a Northwest hub and Frontier had just been bloodied by NWA on LAX-MSP - but I understand DEN-MEM now, with Delta busy dehubbing MEM, and I would understand MEM-TTN, which would have minimal competition.

But that keeps coming back to how many flights TTN can physically handle. The day before Thanksgiving should be interesting, when some stations (MDW, DTW and RDU e.g.) have double daily flights and we'll see how the airport copes.

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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Thu Oct 24, 2013 8:04 pm

PVD-TTN is likely too short but PVD-DEN on 4 or 5x weekly would provide DEN back with service to New England on F9 and PVD with DEN as WN is leaving the route to focus on BOS-DEN. PVD is the second busiest airport in the Boston CSA and has train access to Boston.

As for TTN, I hope the owners are not applying the 5 hour drive rule to discount TTN-PIT's viability. BOS has train and B6 access, but PIT from Philly doesn't have low fare access except by bus.

If new direction of F9 follows NK in approach with multiple focus cities instead of hubs, PIT would be an ideal small focus and F9 could fly PIT-PVD as well, PIT-TTN and other routes, maybe PIT-MSY.
 
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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Thu Oct 24, 2013 9:52 pm

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 18):
If new direction of F9 follows NK in approach with multiple focus cities instead of hubs, PIT would be an ideal small focus and F9 could fly PIT-PVD as well, PIT-TTN and other routes, maybe PIT-MSY.

Indigo's efforts with Wizz Air and Volaris may show us a sample layout of what focus cities may look like for F9 in the future. Wizz has a main hub like presence in the greater London area, and more or less focus cities in Poland and Central Europe. Outside of the London location, the other focus cities seem to have 15-20 destinations that are point to point. Some of these destinations do have more than one daily frequency while others are daily or less than daily. In addition, some cities Wizz flies to has service to an additional five or six destinations themselves that are not focus locations, again which may be daily or less than daily.

In looking at the Volaris route map a similar pattern is apparent with the secondary Mexico City airport being the main hub and a large focus city in Tijuana. Volaris routes are similar in pattern and structure to Wizz. I have not looked yet at the other Indigo interests but would expect to find similar route planning pattens/strategies.

What is noticeable with both Wizz and Volaris is that there are a number of shorter functional p2p routes from the focus airports, as well as p2p service from outlier airports to other locations, and a mix of long haul flights which some are to the hub/focus airports and others probably tourist spots. Each seems to have some seasonal service factored in.

It would be my guess too that we will see a similar pattern emerge with F9's future route planning. PIT has been mentioned and it sounds reasonable. I would venture to say that airport costs three may be high given the US pull down and large number of excess gates, as well as other vacant facilities at the field. All of these are costing infastructure $$ that could increase F9 operating costs our of the facility. Perhaps they could get a break from the Alleghaney Authority to sign on.

Once we get a picture of what the fleet acquisition >2014 will look like, I think it will be fun to speculate what focus cities (20-30 departures/day) might come about after the first of the year. Several in the east and perhaps a couple of spots west of the Mississippi and in the west. Here are a few that might have some possibilities given Indigo's other interests:
IND, MCI, OMA, LAS, CAE, MEM, LEX, MKE, SDF, GSO, MSY, OKC, TUL to name a few. What do you think?

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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Fri Oct 25, 2013 10:48 pm

Quoting Frontier14 (Reply 19):
IND, MCI, OMA, LAS, CAE, MEM, LEX, MKE, SDF, GSO, MSY, OKC, TUL to name a few.

I think the most interesting one on that list might be CAE, which has no LCC service at all. When Southwest was toying with that neck of the woods, CAE was prepared to throw $15 million at 'em, but Southwest went to CHS/GSP instead.

CAE took it very badly and said it didn't really want LCC's anyway, and would concentrate on its legacy airlines. But then it calmed down and a deal was in the works for them to be able to offer $10 million to attract LCC service:

http://www.columbiabusinessreport.com/news/34064/print

"Compromise would give Columbia $10M to lure airline"

If it went through, I'm amazed that no one has taken it up, but with or without the $10 million they're keen.

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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Sat Oct 26, 2013 4:25 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 20):
CAE took it very badly and said it didn't really want LCC's anyway, and would concentrate on its legacy airlines. But then it calmed down and a deal was in the works for them to be able to offer $10 million to attract LCC service:

Columbia is just a little bit too far to be an alternate for Charleston but with a subsidy, so they'd be guaranteed not to lose money they might just want to try it Columbia's problem is that they are within an hour and a half to Charlotte.
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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Sat Oct 26, 2013 8:54 am

Quoting Jerseyguy (Reply 21):
Columbia's problem is that they are within an hour and a half to Charlotte.

GSP is a bit closer to CLT and yet Southwest serves both, flying to mostly the same places from each.

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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Sat Oct 26, 2013 2:34 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 20):

CAE has just shy of a 132K populous. It does seem to have a higher than the national average unemployment rate at 9.2% Here are some stats provide by the visitors bureau http://www.columbiacvb.com/ and some additional city statistics http://www.city-data.com/city/Columbia-South-Carolina.html
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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Sat Oct 26, 2013 4:05 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 22):
GSP is a bit closer to CLT and yet Southwest serves both, flying to mostly the same places from each.
GSP has the Asheville Area where its harder to get to CLT because of the lack of a direct freeway. Also GSP only has limited WN flights (1x to BWI, BNA and HOU, 2x to MDW). CAE might pickup some of the West Suburbs of Charleston but with a subsidy its worth a try

TTN will or has a defacto slot system do to its terminal capacity though.so if we'll see CHS or SAV first before we see CAE.

[Edited 2013-10-26 09:10:21]
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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Sat Oct 26, 2013 4:14 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 20):
CAE took it very badly and said it didn't really want LCC's anyway, and would concentrate on its legacy airlines. But then it calmed down and a deal was in the works for them to be able to offer $10 million to attract LCC service:

http://www.columbiabusinessreport.com/news/34064/print

"Compromise would give Columbia $10M to lure airline"

If it went through, I'm amazed that no one has taken it up, but with or without the $10 million they're keen.

With some $10M on the table, if only F9 had some spare birds, there could be a range of destinations that F9 could attempt from there and not have there behinds burned.......

Quoting Frontier14 (Reply 19):
what focus cities (20-30 departures/day)
Quoting Frontier14 (Reply 19):
IND, MCI, OMA, LAS, CAE, MEM, LEX, MKE, SDF, GSO, MSY, OKC, TUL to name a few.

If these above were to be eventual destinations with connections to DEN or TTN (or possibly ILG) and F9 had the birds, then as pax increase and $$$$$ increase in the F9 coffers, then these additions would obviously be welcome.


But on the other hand, if these were just to be some sort of focus cities in themselves............

Oy vey...... yes, feel free to call me the Debbie Downer here...... and it seems that every time F9 ventures away from DEN..... $$$$$ in the millions just seem to vanish from the F9 coffers ever so quickly........ and the only reason that maybe (let's make that big MAYBE!) CAE looks as even to be considered is the $10M on the table there. F9 has been, currently is...... and will most likely continue to be a DEN-centric carrier in just about all of its facets. That TTN (and possibly ILG) are showing something of possible $$$$$ increases into the coffers is remarkable, but shouldn't be overly pushed...... if it's there, take it, but expansion for its own sake is usually lethal.

I would really like to see F9 expand in all sorts of ways...... but somehow....... it's always much too costly outside of DEN. And I certainly hope that Indigo takes a serious look at all of the past of F9...... before it possibly (probably) losses millions of $$$$$ with ex-DEN expansions....... and that someday F9 doesn't find itself in BK..... where there is not a way out.......

But a lot can be started with the $10M from CAE.......... and that would be the best bet to start ex-DEN for at least this is, for now....... - other people's money - .......

 
 
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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Sat Oct 26, 2013 6:21 pm

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 23):
CAE has just shy of a 132K populous.

The MSA is almost 800,000.   

Quoting point2point (Reply 25):
if it's there, take it, but expansion for its own sake is usually lethal.
DEN-centric Frontier has one over-riding problem - winter. At any point in the its history, no matter how well it did the rest of the year, winter was always the financial drain, long before Southwest.

All the skiers and all the the south of the border service are peanuts compared with the northeast to Florida snowbird traffic, which was the initial bread and butter basis of JetBlue's success, and Spirit, and Allegiant's first choice after LAS was established.

Siegel knows the east coast as well as anyone, and this was his policy from the git-go - he was fairly open about it. He did it quite cautiously, with a limited fleet and p2p routes to MCO. For a time it looked as if ABE might get more service, until the airport played games with costs and TTN revealed itself. As Shurz said:

" The company has, however, exceeded the goals that it set for the area."

You can knock me down with a feather that TTN-CMH seems to be surviving through winter and the strength of TTN-RDU has surprised me. Even MSY did well - 87% load factor - but because of the seasonality and the limited fleet there were other priorities. I'm told the intention is that MSY will come back once the fleet loosens up.

DEN has always been Frontier's greatest strength, but has also been the airline''s biggest liability. Reliance on the single hub made the airline vulnerable to attack, which is what happened - all the eggs were in one basket.

mariner

[Edited 2013-10-26 11:32:30]
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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Sat Oct 26, 2013 6:56 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 26):
The MSA is almost 800,000.

The CSA is larger and CAE can pull from Augusta, GA. But, I'm not sure where F9 will fly profitably from CAE (maybe CAE-DEN?)

Quoting mariner (Reply 26):
For a time it looked as if ABE might get more service, until the airport played games with costs and TTN revealed itself.

Yeah, ABE-MCO got canned for TTN-MCO and TTN evolved ever since. But, I wonder with the lack of ability for F9 to fly TTN-DEN, if ABE interest via ABE-DEN might make sense. Allegiant has picked up a lot of Florida, but still lacks ABE-FLL. I know there is a growing Latino population in the Lehigh Valley and the cultural ties along with the leisure would make sense for FLL direct service from ABE.

For DEN, arguably, if someone from Bridgewater has been supporting F9 now at TTN and is well aware of the carrier, to reach DEN or west coast, they could use ILG (110 miles away) or LGA (NYC traffic/tolls) but most likely, the pax will choose another carrier (UA or WN) at EWR. Amongst the F9 options and easy drive/park options, neither are really as easy as driving west for 52 miles to ABE. Plus it has the niche that US, UA, WN aren't flying the route and there is population from Hazleton/Scranton north of ABE.
 
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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Sat Oct 26, 2013 9:17 pm

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 27):
they could use ILG (110 miles away)

If I'm understanding correctly; I looked at two airport distance calculators one read 58 statute miles between TTN-ILG and the other 58. Not sure where the 110 came from.
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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Sat Oct 26, 2013 11:15 pm

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 28):
If I'm understanding correctly; I looked at two airport distance calculators one read 58 statute miles between TTN-ILG and the other 58. Not sure where the 110 came from.

Flytravel is talking about if someone where to live in Bridgewater NJ (about 25 miles SW of Newark), they would be approximately 35 miles from TTN (50 minutes due to a lack of freeways) but would be 99 miles (via I-95 (free)) and 108 miles (via the NJ Turnpike (Toll)). It would take around 2 hours to get from Bridgewater to ILG. They were saying it would be better for the people who are north of TTN to go to ABE instead of ILG and that F9 should consider doing ABE to DEN.

I'm not as worried as they seem to be interested in finding a way to do TTN-DEN. I wouldn't expect it before summer as that is their busy time between the PHL area and DEN. With Indigo wanting to invest in F9 and they are pretty happy with TTN they might just invest in whatever the right plane is.
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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Sat Oct 26, 2013 11:36 pm

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 27):
The CSA is larger and CAE can pull from Augusta, GA. But, I'm not sure where F9 will fly profitably from CAE (maybe CAE-DEN?)

I'm only thinking of TTN, I'm not looking for potential focus cities. I also think it is impossible to second guess Daniel Shurz, but there may be some clues in what he said:

"There is a huge potential market for flights in the area, but it is important to focus on routes that will have a high volume of customers and less low-cost competition, Shurz said."

BMI, for example, where Frontier has done well, has no service to the northeast (and had a SCASD grant of $750,000 for such service in 2012). I don't know if Frontier would pick it up for TTN, but the airport would be keen.

I think a lot of airports would be keen, I think it is wide open at TTN

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 27):
But, I wonder with the lack of ability for F9 to fly TTN-DEN, if ABE interest via ABE-DEN might make sense.

Not to dismiss ABE, which may still have some potential, but by hook, crook or broomstick, I think Frontier will find a way to fly TTN-DEN.

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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Sun Oct 27, 2013 7:11 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 26):
The MSA is almost 800,000.

Hmmmmm..... those stat wallahs, eh?.......

Quoting mariner (Reply 26):
DEN has always been Frontier's greatest strength, but has also been the airline''s biggest liability. Reliance on the single hub made the airline vulnerable to attack, which is what happened - all the eggs were in one basket.

Well, at least this basket at DEN has yet to be cracked though, ...... correct?

Quoting mariner (Reply 26):
winter was always the financial drain

That's why $10M at CAE is rather appealing at the moment....... and a few routes CAE to/from DEN, MDW, TTN, ILG, BOS, MCO, FLL...... maybe develop a focus city there with $10M? And if the folks there decide that F9 doesn't suit them, well........

And as for TTN (IAG)..... indications are that they seem to be producing positive $$$$$ for F9, so keep things there positive.

Quoting Jerseyguy (Reply 29):
finding a way to do TTN-DEN

There's probably still a number of destinations the have pax traffic that aren't served nonstop to/from DEN. BUF, ALB, ROC, RIC, CHS, PNS and PBI are among the largest that could be supported on O&D alone, at least seasonally and/or maybe sub-daily. Then the recently dropped routes from WN of PVD and MHT at least in summertime could do quite well maybe?

But before anything, I guess that F9 needs to get some more birds to put in the air. With their fleet as is..... they have to go where they get the most bang for the $$$$$.

 
 
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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Sun Oct 27, 2013 8:40 am

Quoting point2point (Reply 31):
Hmmmmm..... those stat wallahs, eh?.......

Whatever works.  
Quoting point2point (Reply 31):
Well, at least this basket at DEN has yet to be cracked though, ...... correct?

Only because Southwest blew the auction, everything springs from that. The DEN hub is what it always was - the greatest strength and the biggest liability.

Everything that happens beyond DEN - TTN, ILG, even CUN and PUJ - helps to reinforce DEN by making the airline less vulnerable - slowly, route by route.

Quoting point2point (Reply 31):
That's why $10M at CAE is rather appealing at the moment....... and a few routes CAE to/from DEN, MDW, TTN, ILG, BOS, MCO, FLL...... maybe develop a focus city there with $10M? And if the folks there decide that F9 doesn't suit them, well........

As above, I'm only looking at routes to TTN and I think the creation of whatever TTN is going to be is fascinating. I am sure this must have happened before, somewhere, but it is new to me - an airline creating a whatever you want to call it - at an airport that did not have any other commercial service at the time, and had not for some years.

As the Shurz article says, they are having to sell the airport as well as the airline and I am intrigued to see what happens next. One of the things that may have to happen is some expansion of the terminal space.

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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Sun Oct 27, 2013 7:07 pm

Quoting Jerseyguy (Reply 6):
It cost $31 in tolls and $40-50 in gas each way to drive to PIT from the TTN area, and PIT is only an hour plane ride from TTN, F9 could do a round trip in 3 hours, not very long to be missing an aircraft. Plus all the consturction on the PA Turnpike is tiring. Would F9 consider Youngstown. 1:15-1:20 to Pittsburgh and Cleveland has a terminal with 4 tarmac gates and even 2 Jetbridges. Costs would be lower. Alliegant flies to FL from there.

I found an old article from January of this year, that PIT was seeking more service:
http://www.post-gazette.com/business...-destinations/stories/201301180170

In there, however, was that: "William R. Lauer, an Allegheny Capital Inc. principal who has followed the industry for years, said the airport's high cost per passenger, at $14.66, may discourage airlines from taking a chance on a new route."

I wonder if this is more the deal breaker for F9 to launch PIT-TTN/ILG than the distance.. Besides the fees, some of the profit of a route likely comes from pax that book on short notice, say on TTN-MDW and will pay over $200 for the fare for a trip next Friday.

I don't think F9 could get that on a short route like PIT-TTN and then the airport cost per passenger eats up the already low fare for the advance purchase ticket. WN however keeps PIT-BWI, shorter, but I think WN gets some specific business traffic demand for Pittsburgh based pax that work in DC region or Annapolis or Montgomery Co., and the flight times work for day trip from PIT to DC/MD.

One alternative for F9 if it wants to reduce costs would be to use LBE like NK, and fly TTN-LBE.
 
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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Sun Oct 27, 2013 8:43 pm

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 33):
One alternative for F9 if it wants to reduce costs would be to use LBE like NK, and fly TTN-LBE.

LBE is one option. If the western suburbs of Pittsburgh and the eastern suburbs of Cleveland have enough population you could do YNG (Youngstown, OH) and be and alternate for both Cleveland and Pittsburgh.
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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Mon Oct 28, 2013 3:19 am

Took a ride by the terminal at TTN today. I took a shot of what I'm hoping is not the modular baggage claim. Couldn't get a good look but it looks small and ugly.

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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Tue Oct 29, 2013 8:53 pm

As in this thread, Airbus has just announced that a retrofits of sharklets for the A319 are now available:

Airbus Offer: Retrofit For A319 & A320 Sharklets (by Bogi Oct 29 2013 in Civil Aviation)

Airbus also lists the improvements the sharklets give:

http://www.airbus.com/aircraftfamili...ft/a320family/a319/specifications/

"Offered as optional equipment on new production A320-series aircraft, Sharklets provide aerodynamic improvements that result in multiple benefits for operators – including lower fuel burn, reduced emissions, increased range and payload, better take-off performance and rate-of-climb, higher optimum altitude and reduced engine maintenance costs"

Obviously, "better take-off performance and rate of climb" caught my eye and being the least technically-minded person on a.net I'll ask what may be a dumb question: is this what Frontier needs for TTN-DEN?

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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Tue Oct 29, 2013 9:30 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 36):
Sharklets provide aerodynamic improvements that result in multiple benefits for operators – including lower fuel burn, reduced emissions, increased range and payload, better take-off performance and rate-of-climb, higher optimum altitude and reduced engine maintenance costs"

It sounds like sharklets do everything but fly the plane.
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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Tue Oct 29, 2013 11:34 pm

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 9):

I wonder if State College in PA might be a better choice over PIT. State College is an hour drive from PIT.

Pittsburgh to State College is an almost 3 hour drive, and its not all freeway. Pittsburgh truly is in no man's land.

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 33):
I found an old article from January of this year, that PIT was seeking more service:
http://www.post-gazette.com/business...-destinations/stories/201301180170

In there, however, was that: "William R. Lauer, an Allegheny Capital Inc. principal who has followed the industry for years, said the airport's high cost per passenger, at $14.66, may discourage airlines from taking a chance on a new route."

I wonder if this is more the deal breaker for F9 to launch PIT-TTN/ILG than the distance

The incentive program however eliminates landing fees for one year and cuts them in half for the second year. Or like you said there is always LBE. If F9 is in TTN for the long haul, I think it is only a matter of time before they try the PIT market. Perhaps PIT-DEN as well if it increases a/c utilization.
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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Wed Oct 30, 2013 2:16 am

Take for whatever you think it is worth, but according to TheStreet.com, which is a reasonably reputable Wall Street paper, a deal with the pilots is in place for the acquisition:

http://www.thestreet.com/story/12087...o-deal.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

"Frontier Pilots on Board with Indigo Deal

"A fair deal is in place," one source familiar with the pilot negotiations said. "Pilots are no longer an issue."


mariner

[Edited 2013-10-29 19:41:28]
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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Wed Oct 30, 2013 2:53 am

Quoting Jerseyguy (Reply 35):
Took a ride by the terminal at TTN today. I took a shot of what I'm hoping is not the modular baggage claim. Couldn't get a good look but it looks small and ugly.

That structure has been there for some time.... don't think it has anything to do with baggage claim. I drove by on Scotch Road and looks like the EMAS is done.
 
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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Wed Oct 30, 2013 3:23 am

Yeah, I just saw a pic of the terminal taken in April from the Tarmac and it was there too.

Quoting mariner (Reply 39):

Glad to hear the pilots have agreed on a deal Without a deal the outlook didn't look good.
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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Wed Oct 30, 2013 6:49 pm

Quoting Jerseyguy (Reply 41):
Glad to hear the pilots have agreed on a deal Without a deal the outlook didn't look good.

Well, it isn't a done deal until it is announced and it hasn't been officially announced yet, but I would be very surprised if it fell apart on the pilots agreement.

The Frontier pilots, and their leadership, have always seemed to me to be a rational and cohesive group, not only with their own interests in mind, but also those of the airline as a stand-alone survivor. It was the pilots who provided the first fly in the ointment on the Southwest offer, and it was the FAPA agreement that started the ball rolling to separation.

Anyone can say they might have been better off at Southwest, but they didn't see it that way. They surely were not happy about losing their union - FAPA - and there was antipathy with the Republic pilots, but this may resolve those issues and restart the union.

Because I assume that, once separated, the pilots will vote to be out of the IBT and revive FAPA - which, presumably, is what the IBT is battling to avoid - and this may give FAPA common ground with Indigo.

There's an interesting blog written by a pilot applicant, who interviewed in August, was accepted and was part of the first pilot class in September. He reported his interview in great detail, as gouge for others, and said:

http://www.willflyforfood.com/pilot-...erviews/141/Frontier-Airlines.html

"About 9 am, they herded us into the auditorium where we met the Chief Pilot and the HR team, as well as the volunteer escorts. In what may have made the biggest impression on me all day, the volunteer escorts were a half a dozen guys flying the line, who came in on their day off, volunteering to show us around, answer questions, shoot the bull, and generally give us their impressions of the company. They spanned the spectrum, from the #1 line captain to the second to bottom FO.

Class act, in my opinion."


I'm not saying this is unique to Frontier - I'm sure it may happen at other airlines - and perhaps the impression on the applicant is not unique. I'm simply suggesting that after all the trials and tribulations of the past few years, that cohesive and positive attitude, the band of brothers, appears to be still there at Frontier, and it may be surprising to some.

So - assuming the Indigo deal does go through - I shall be very interested to watch what the IBT does next, because now they would be dealing with the cohesive Frontier pilots in bed with William Franke, who is one smart cookie, but bloody-minded tough and no great fan of overly-aggressive unions.

For me, it may be one of the more interesting things about the deal, because I love to watch legal battles, like high-stakes poker games. So far - so far - it seems to me that the IBT doesn't have a very good hand, which is why it is crying "foul."  

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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Wed Oct 30, 2013 7:00 pm

F9 at MEM would be a flop. O & D is too low for one.
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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Wed Oct 30, 2013 7:02 pm

I don't see how a hub for F9 would work at MEM. It's not a huge market for O & D traffic and it's not a huge draw nationally. Perhaps if you want to connect people it could work, but otherwise I don't see it working for them. That despite the cheap landing fees thanks to FX.
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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Wed Oct 30, 2013 7:22 pm

Quoting Lexy (Reply 43):
F9 at MEM would be a flop. O & D is too low for one.
Quoting Lexy (Reply 44):
I don't see how a hub for F9 would work at MEM.

MEM as a hub for Frontier, or even a focus city? Gosh, I hope not - Frontier's already been there and tried that and Northwest went nuclear.

But - times have changed, Northwest isn't around anymore and Delta is cutting back at MEM, especially MEM-PHL, which is being reduced to 1 x daily.

So given that no one else flies the route - not even, surprisingly, US Airways - and given the way things are going at MEM, I wouldn't actually fall over in shock to see Frontier add MEM-TTN or ILG.

 

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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Thu Oct 31, 2013 3:20 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 45):
especially MEM-PHL, which is being reduced to 1 x daily.

Courtesy the OAG threads; DL is also pulling down MEM-CMH in February and MEM-MKE in January. I don't think a demand for MEM-CMH exist but might we see a return to MKE. CLT also looses a little capacity from MEM

DL MEM-CLT JAN 3>1.5 FEB 3>1.6 MAR 3>1.7 APR 3>1.7 MAY 3>1.7 JUN 3>1.7
DL MEM-CMH DEC 0.7>0.3 JAN 0.8>0.1 FEB 0.9>0 MAR 0.8>0 APR 0.9>0 MAY 0.8>0 JUN 0.9>0
DL MEM-MKE DEC 0.6>0.1 JAN 0.8>0 FEB 0.9>0 MAR 0.8>0 APR 0.9>0 MAY 0.8>0 JUN 0.9>0
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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Thu Oct 31, 2013 6:36 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 45):
MEM as a hub for Frontier, or even a focus city? Gosh, I hope not - Frontier's already been there and tried that and Northwest went nuclear.

But - times have changed, Northwest isn't around anymore and Delta is cutting back at MEM, especially MEM-PHL, which is being reduced to 1 x daily.

So given that no one else flies the route - not even, surprisingly, US Airways - and given the way things are going at MEM, I wouldn't actually fall over in shock to see Frontier add MEM-TTN or ILG.

I agree 100%. MEM is not a gold mine that DL is just giving up on. There's a very good reason it's losing it's "hub" status outside the obvious (ATL).
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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Fri Nov 01, 2013 8:36 am

Quoting Lexy (Reply 47):
MEM is not a gold mine that DL is just giving up on. There's a very good reason it's losing it's "hub" status outside the obvious (ATL).

At the same time, there is a reason MEM was a hub in the first place and for an airline that isn't going to expand at ATL, MEM might have some value for a route or three.

The concept of MEM-DEN, MEM-TTN (or ILG) and MEM to somewhere in Florida and/or MEM-CUN or even PUJ might make sense.

The same could be said of STL, which has seven routes to south of the border - and DEN - but nothing to the northeast yet.

Or several places. Partly because of the perceived strength of TTN, just about every disregarded or under-used airport is looking at Frontier as a potential (or expanded) tenant. When the deal with Indigo was announced, Milwaukee immediately saw a possible return of Frontier.

Well - maybe.

Frontier (or Republic) is still paying the leases for bunch of gates at MKE, and I can perhaps see MKE-TTN (or ILG) and maybe MKE-MCO comes back and CUN continues. I don't see much more than that unless those routes prove to be gangbusters but anything is possible because it's different today.

Yesterday was the deadline for union agreements for the Indigo sale. If they have been resolved and it has gone through, then Frontier has new management as of today, nominally if not in full control yet, and, presumably, there may be some new or different priorities.

I would be surprised if it hasn't gone through because that would materially affect the Republic stock price and there should have been some statement of state of play, even if only an extension of the deadline. I guess it could happen tomorrow morning, but I think the SEC would be cross because early trading starts at sparrow fart, or even before.

I suppose it's always possible that it hasn't gone through but that's a whole new ball game as well because I'm not sure there is a fully imagined Plan B, and even if there is I doubt we'd see too much growth at least until it's sorted out.

So in either event, whatever happened, it's different today.

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RE: Frontier TTN Thread Part 5

Fri Nov 01, 2013 7:01 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 48):
At the same time, there is a reason MEM was a hub in the first place and for an airline that isn't going to expand at ATL, MEM might have some value for a route or three.

The concept of MEM-DEN, MEM-TTN (or ILG) and MEM to somewhere in Florida and/or MEM-CUN or even PUJ might make sense.

The same could be said of STL, which has seven routes to south of the border - and DEN - but nothing to the northeast yet.

Or several places. Partly because of the perceived strength of TTN, just about every disregarded or under-used airport is looking at Frontier as a potential (or expanded) tenant. When the deal with Indigo was announced, Milwaukee immediately saw a possible return of Frontier.

I can see your point and it makes sense to me. One thing, though, if I'm looking in that general direction, I have to wonder about BNA. It has good O & D, a good amount of expansion possibilities, a growing business base (new convention center and large corporate base), good tourist appeal, good national appeal, and it's just growing well despite many cities it's size. The drawback there is the WN Focus City.

I'm not talking about F9 doing anything there over what they already do. Their model wouldn't fit the business traveler or premium customer at all.

In reference to MEM, I think we all can agree it was a hub for much longer than it "should've" been. It's unlike a lot of hubs in the US in that it's in a smaller market, a stagnant region, and propped up by cheap fees thanks to FX.
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