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TWA772LR
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New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Sun Nov 10, 2013 8:58 pm

With the new pilot laws (1500 hours, etc...) , making it hard for people without a ton of cash to get the amount of hours needed. And the empending shortage coming up, what does the government have up their sleeve to counter the shortage? Lower hours? Make it easier to get loans for school? I ask this because my brother and I are aspiring pilots.
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DeltaRules
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Sun Nov 10, 2013 9:14 pm

They offered reductions in required time to students who complete their training and earn aviation degrees from approved schools. 1,000 hours for a four-year college, 1,250 for a two-year college. That was clearly a move to pacify universities most likely to take a hit from the ATP law.

I'm afraid (and I get the feeling with the competence of the current government) that they'll think that's sufficient and call it a day, at least for now.
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flyby519
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Sun Nov 10, 2013 10:58 pm

My prediction is cabotage coming our way.
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rfields5421
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Sun Nov 10, 2013 11:42 pm

God forbid that pilots should become a high demand career, and airlines actually have to compete for the best new pilots, and pay a living wage to entry level pilots.

The 'shortage' isn't so much a lack of the number of qualified pilots, as the glut of entry level pilots which the airlines can pay almost nothing will be drying up. Some new pilots actually have to pay for the privilege of flying.

The solution to the cost for training issue is that the airlines might actually have to invest in training for their best candidates.

[Edited 2013-11-10 15:47:05]
 
cv640
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 12:34 am

1500 hours has historically been the basic requirements. In the past you flight instructed, flew corporate, part 135, etc to build flight time. The past 5-6 years people got unreasonable expectations of walking into an airline with a brand new commercial certificate.

This law will weed out some, mostly those who thought it was a quick and easy path. Getting your flight time was always tough and a long term prospect.
 
silentbob
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 12:47 am

Quoting cv640 (Reply 4):
1500 hours has historically been the basic requirements. In the past you flight instructed, flew corporate, part 135, etc to build flight time. The past 5-6 years people got unreasonable expectations of walking into an airline with a brand new commercial certificate.

This law will weed out some, mostly those who thought it was a quick and easy path. Getting your flight time was always tough and a long term prospect.

There aren't many students to instruct anymore, there's no need to fly checks and towing banners has been reduced quite a bit. There are fewer ways to get your time and get paid than ever before.
 
BMI727
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 1:00 am

Why should the government do anything? Having a higher standard will push salaries higher.
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 4:06 am

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 3):
The 'shortage' isn't so much a lack of the number of qualified pilots, as the glut of entry level pilots which the airlines can pay almost nothing will be drying up. Some new pilots actually have to pay for the privilege of flying.

I always thought this was to help military pilots find a job with the downsizing. e.g., the hints the navy will reduce air wings.   Also, how likely will it be that drone pilots are given credit for some of their hours?

This could either push salaries higher, or will bring back more of the US pilots who are now flying for foreign airlines. Probably a mixture of both. I'm not too worried due to the rationalizing of the RJ fleets up to 86 seaters.

Lightsaber
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Mir
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 5:00 am

Quoting DeltaRules (Reply 1):
I'm afraid (and I get the feeling with the competence of the current government) that they'll think that's sufficient and call it a day, at least for now.

Why would that be a bad thing? Demand for pilots goes up, pilot wages go up. That's a good thing - the status of pilot wages in the US is abysmal, and anything that will change that is a good thing.

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 3):
God forbid that pilots should become a high demand career, and airlines actually have to compete for the best new pilots, and pay a living wage to entry level pilots.

   Though it's not really fair to call regional airlines entry-level jobs.

-Mir
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Mir
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 5:01 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 7):
Also, how likely will it be that drone pilots are given credit for some of their hours?

Should be zero. Unless we're going to give people credit for playing Flight Simulator. Because those are pretty much the same thing.

-Mir
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rfields5421
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 12:51 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 7):
Also, how likely will it be that drone pilots are given credit for some of their hours?

Completely different skill set and orientation. A drone pilot might have a small head start on understanding some aspects of flying - but is completely lacking on others. It is apparently much easier to transition from a real pilot to a drone pilot than the other way around.

Quoting Mir (Reply 9):
we're going to give people credit for playing Flight Simulator.

Drones are a bit more than FS. There are real consequences for crashing drones unlike FS. One area for getting new drone pilots is those military pilots, or pilot trainee candidates, who lost their flying status due to medical conditions.
 
cv640
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 1:52 pm

Again, if the hours requirements is hurting those trying to break in, you did some poor research. This law has been known about for years. When I got in I was told to expect to instruct for 3+ years.

If you had asked those who had been in the industry for any amount of time,we'd have warned you. Things move slowly in the airlines. Sorry if you believed a magazine advertisement, I wish they'd ban most of those for lack of accuracy.
 
n6238p
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 2:02 pm

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 6):

Why should the government do anything? Having a higher standard will push salaries higher.

It appears the exact opposite has been the case so far. Just look at what is going on at Endeavor, was offered to Eagle, voted on by PSA, is about to be offered to XJT, soon to Skywest, and what is happening to Eagle and Air Wisconsin. Not to mention look at the mess other, shall remain nameless, regionals already are.

Apparently less pilots = better take concessions.
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Mir
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 2:14 pm

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 10):
Drones are a bit more than FS. There are real consequences for crashing drones unlike FS.

Not to the operator there aren't. Ultimately, there's nothing you can do with a drone that you can't do with a desktop flight simulator, and the experience of operating one is quite similar.

Quoting n6238p (Reply 12):
It appears the exact opposite has been the case so far. Just look at what is going on at Endeavor, was offered to Eagle, voted on by PSA, is about to be offered to XJT, soon to Skywest, and what is happening to Eagle and Air Wisconsin. Not to mention look at the mess other, shall remain nameless, regionals already are.

Apparently less pilots = better take concessions.

To be fair, the requirements have only been around for a half a year, and there was still a sizable pool to clear out. If you waited about a year, things might be different.

-Mir
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 2:14 pm

So far, the only airline I know that has been significantly impacted is Great lakes:
http://www.eturbonews.com/39572/airl...on-act-caused-disruption-air-servi

Now, I'm sure other low paying airlines will feel some pain. In particular once their pilots are in more demand. The real impact will be at the airports small airlines fly to:

"WNRA Director Darwin Skelton said the airport is aware of the cancellations and is worried that the airport might not reach a target of 10,000 annual boarding numbers by the end of the year in order to receive federal funding for the airport. Failure to reach the threshold could cost the airport $850,000 in federal funding."

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 10):
A drone pilot might have a small head start on understanding some aspects of flying - but is completely lacking on others.

Agreed. Hence why 'some hours.' They'll know flying in controlled airspace. Traversing FAA corridors (with a chase plane). I agree they need many hours, but some credit seems worthy. If enough small airports close, there will be a loophole created. This is a political crisis that eventually will have a political solution.

Or not... Perhaps the FAA is about to save a bunch of money in airport subsidies.  

There must be some impact as this list seems to have grown (warning, I'm going from a vague memory):
http://www.airlinepilotcentral.com/airlines/currently_hiring

Quoting cv640 (Reply 11):
Sorry if you believed a magazine advertisement, I wish they'd ban most of those for lack of accuracy.

   So true.

Quoting Mir (Reply 8):
Though it's not really fair to call regional airlines entry-level jobs.

   It will be those further down the food chain who suffer first.

Quoting Mir (Reply 8):
Demand for pilots goes up, pilot wages go up. That's a good thing - the status of pilot wages in the US is abysmal, and anything that will change that is a good thing.

Agreed. But I think the transition is too abrupt. This will impact some smaller airports to the point they are non-viable for commercial service.

Lightsaber
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mhockey31091
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 3:05 pm

Recently I've had some of my friends interviewing and being hired by one specific regional airline. Lots of them have said that the caliber of pilot being hired there are subpar and shouldn't even be considered for those jobs. I believe that they are losing some 88 pilots a month and are doing their damnedest to try and fill all the slots they have!
 
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 3:20 pm

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 3):
The 'shortage' isn't so much a lack of the number of qualified pilots,

I think I understand what you were saying, but the number of new pilot starts is down...there is a severe shortage of actual heads in the pipeline right now, not to mention the looming shortage due to the 117 rules that take effect in January.

The majors will always be able to pluck pilots from regionals. The regionals will pluck from the really small fries to some extent, but it's the carriers (such as Great Lakes as cited above) that will struggle.

The only carrier on that end of the spectrum that's been proactive in addressing it is Cape Air, with their Gateway program, run in conjunction with B6. Tremendous job by them to get ahead of things as best they can.

But inevitably, the govt will have to acquiesce I think because the number of qualified aviators--based on their purely arbitrary and capricious rules--will be too low. And that's without contemplating the retirement curve, which is another massive blow coming.
 
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Vio
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 3:29 pm

Well... not this s*it again...   

... but I'll play the game. I think the law is there to improve safety, NOT to help out every kid that dreams to be a pilot.


1. I don't want a 200 hr wonder at the controls of an aircraft with 20+ people unless:
A. That pilot has attended a proper school or some sort of airline cadet program
B. Is under the supervision of a training captain until he/she reaches a certain number of hours & skills.

2. These "cheappo-air" establishments that pay pilots less than McDonald's should sink! PERIOD! Let other airlines (that pay better) enter the market. If not, let them take the train or the bus.

3. There are ways to built your time up. Those who really want to fly for the majors will work hard and eventually reach their goal.
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DiamondFlyer
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 4:18 pm

Quoting vio (Reply 17):
2. These "cheappo-air" establishments that pay pilots less than McDonald's should sink! PERIOD! Let other airlines (that pay better) enter the market. If not, let them take the train or the bus.

So basically, you're advocating the closing of every regional feed airline in the country? What needs to happen is the RLA needs amended. When airlines such as Republic that haven't had a contract in years can't strike, they have no power to do anything. Let them go on strike to get what they deserve.

-DiamondFlyer
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apodino
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 4:29 pm

Quoting DiamondFlyer (Reply 18):
So basically, you're advocating the closing of every regional feed airline in the country? What needs to happen is the RLA needs amended. When airlines such as Republic that haven't had a contract in years can't strike, they have no power to do anything. Let them go on strike to get what they deserve.

I agree that the RLA is a relic. What should have happened long ago in the Republic case is the NMB should have released them to begin the 30 day cooling off period, because it is clear that the sides are making no progress, and even worse is that every other regional is asking for concessions, at a time when the ability to attract quality candidates should be improving, and not going the other way. I don't know if the reason Republic has not been released is due to lawsuits about the people on the NMB in general (they were recess appointments by Obama and there is a question of whether or not he had the ability to make such appointments), or if the president is trying to just prevent an airline strike from happening on his watch given the already fragile economy. (A Republic strike would hurt every single legacy airline in the country)

The other thing to keep an eye on in 2014 is FAR Part 117, which takes effect in January. This is also going to increase the need for pilots at the regional level to where they haven't been before, which is one reason I think airlines are trying to get concessions. Part 117, combined with the ATP laws, will have a pretty big impact, and what that is yet, nobody knows.
 
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 4:58 pm

If it gets really bad then airlines can start ab initio training.

Doesn't Lufthansa have a school in the US to train pilots for LH?
 
planemaker
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 5:17 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 7):
I'm not too worried due to the rationalizing of the RJ fleets up to 86 seaters.

And mainline fleets as well.

Quoting Mir (Reply 9):
Should be zero. Unless we're going to give people credit for playing Flight Simulator. Because those are pretty much the same thing.

And flying an airliner is increasingly "pretty much the same thing".

Quoting apodino (Reply 19):
and even worse is that every other regional is asking for concessions, at a time when the ability to attract quality candidates should be improving, and not going the other way.

The ability to pay hinges on financial viability. I can't recall a regional carrier that is making consistent investment grade profits.
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adam42185
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 5:17 pm

Quoting flyby519 (Reply 2):
My prediction is cabotage coming our way.

I really hope not. I think that this is possibility but it is still pretty far down the road and I really hope that it doesn't come to this. Are other parts of the world having a shortage as well? If that's the case then cabotage wont really solve anything.
 
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 5:26 pm

Quoting DiamondFlyer (Reply 18):
So basically, you're advocating the closing of every regional feed airline in the country? What needs to happen is the RLA needs amended. When airlines such as Republic that haven't had a contract in years can't strike, they have no power to do anything. Let them go on strike to get what they deserve.

-DiamondFlyer

Yes. And I say that as a pilot flying in the arctic trying to climb my way the airline ladder. Believe me, once I'm done my 4 year stint in the arctic and have about 2500 hrs total time, including at least 1000 PIC on multi engine turbine planes, I'll be a better qualified pilot to fly right seat in a CRJ or an A320 than some hot shot out of flight school with 250 hrs.

Someone with a better business model will come in and fill in the gap, even if it means reduced capacity and higher costs. I rather have 1000 pilots that get paid well, are properly rested and happy than 2000 poorly paid, overworked and stressed out pilots. Competition never hurt anyone, including us pilots trying to climb to the top. It makes us better.

Quoting ADent (Reply 20):

If it gets really bad then airlines can start ab initio training.

Doesn't Lufthansa have a school in the US to train pilots for LH?

Yup, that may end up being the case!
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Goldenshield
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 5:44 pm

Quoting planemaker (Reply 21):
The ability to pay hinges on financial viability. I can't recall a regional carrier that is making consistent investment grade profits.

You're not looking hard enough. SKYW just issued its 73rd quarterly dividend in a row.

Quoting vio (Reply 23):
Yes. And I say that as a pilot flying in the arctic trying to climb my way the airline ladder.

And what about the place you're flying for. If places like that didn't exist, and no regionals existed? Then what? You can't CFI your way to stardom.
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DiamondFlyer
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 5:45 pm

Quoting vio (Reply 23):
Someone with a better business model will come in and fill in the gap, even if it means reduced capacity and higher costs. I rather have 1000 pilots that get paid well, are properly rested and happy than 2000 poorly paid, overworked and stressed out pilots. Competition never hurt anyone, including us pilots trying to climb to the top. It makes us better.

Unfortunately the better business model is doing things on the cheap. Until passengers stop buying the cheapest ticket they can, that isn't going to change. I'm in the same boat as you, but I'm wise enough to know that nothing is going to change the regional game until passengers stop buying the cheapest ticket and ALPA stops representing regional feed.

-DiamondFlyer
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mark2fly1034
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 5:52 pm

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 10):
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 7):
Also, how likely will it be that drone pilots are given credit for some of their hours?

Completely different skill set and orientation. A drone pilot might have a small head start on understanding some aspects of flying - but is completely lacking on others. It is apparently much easier to transition from a real pilot to a drone pilot than the other way around.

But it is easier to take some guy off the street and train them to fly a UAV then a pilot.
 
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 5:58 pm

Quoting vio (Reply 17):
I think the law is there to improve safety, NOT to help out every kid that dreams to be a pilot.

I get your point but the laws are arbitrary and have NOTHING to do with safety. Is there a magic hour threshhold a pilot gets that magically makes them "qualified"? And what are those qualifications? Do we equate hours with aptitude? Besides, by doing this you create a barrier to entry--or at the very least a significant disincentive for people to want to go into this line of work.

Quoting ADent (Reply 20):
If it gets really bad then airlines can start ab initio training.

That's probably something down the line, I would think. How to do it is another nightmare altogether though, especially in negotiating something like that with labor groups.

Quoting vio (Reply 17):
3. There are ways to built your time up. Those who really want to fly for the majors will work hard and eventually reach their goal.

Poof. You make it sound so easy! While the young pilots slog it out, struggle, barely making any money to pay back six figure loans just to one day get a chance to get to the right seat. You oversimplify the issue.
 
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 6:05 pm

Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 24):
And what about the place you're flying for. If places like that didn't exist, and no regionals existed? Then what? You can't CFI your way to stardom.

Of course you can't CFI your way tot the top. Instructing time in Canada is okay to get your PIC time for your ATPL, but most airlines don't hire instructors without some multi-crew, multi engine turbine or small business jet time. Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the US have the largest aviation industry in the world? So, where can they get the pilots?

1. U.S. Military (Air Force, Navy, Marines, Army, Coast Guard, etc). There are pilots there that fly some of the most advanced airplanes in the world; and you can't deny the fact that US military pilots are some of the best trained, most disciplined and intelligent men and women out there. (How's that for a Canadian praising the US armed forces?)

2. Corporate: Once again, the US has the largest corporate industry in the world. Lot of pilots flying anything from a Piper Navajo to a Citation X out there. Also part of this "Corporate" world you can add things like Air Ambulance, Police, etc.

3. Bush Flying in Alaska... Lots of small time operators there. Just like Northern Canada, I wouldn't put the "regionals" or the "mom and pa operators" in the same boat with regional guys like Great Lakes Aviation.

I fly Air Ambulance in the Arctic and our turboprops and jets are pretty nice machines. The environment we fly in is extremely challenging. Without sounding too cocky, I would say that Canadian Arctic pilots are some of the most experienced pilots in the world, both from a "stick and rudder" point of view as well as decision making skills. Our guys move up to fly with Air Canada Jazz, Westjet, Porter Airlines, Air Canada, Cathay, etc.

Quoting DiamondFlyer (Reply 25):
Unfortunately the better business model is doing things on the cheap. Until passengers stop buying the cheapest ticket they can, that isn't going to change. I'm in the same boat as you, but I'm wise enough to know that nothing is going to change the regional game until passengers stop buying the cheapest ticket and ALPA stops representing regional feed.

Some people will pay. Eventually the market will even itself out. Canada has some pretty high fares (and to some extent I don't like that), but there has to be a balance. You can't expect to fly from Denver to Salt Lake City for $50 dollars...
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FlyPNS1
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 6:20 pm

Quoting Slider (Reply 27):

I get your point but the laws are arbitrary and have NOTHING to do with safety.

So we should have no minimum standards? Be a pilot with no experience required?

Quoting Slider (Reply 27):
Do we equate hours with aptitude?

Generally yes. It's not a perfect correlation, but experience does make a difference. Look at it from a different field, who would you pick for your heart transplant surgery, the cardiologist who has done 1 successful transplant or the cardiologist who has done 100?

Quoting Slider (Reply 27):
While the young pilots slog it out, struggle, barely making any money to pay back six figure loans just to one day get a chance to get to the right seat.

But if not enough pilots are making it down the pipeline, you don't think the airlines (some of whom are awash in cash, cough Delta cough) won't invest in training programs to get the pipeline opened up.
 
Goldenshield
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 6:25 pm

Quoting vio (Reply 28):
1. U.S. Military

Not anywhere near enough to satiate demand.

Quoting vio (Reply 28):
2. Corporate

For the GOOD corporate jobs, they'll want experience, and will just about always hire the previous part 121 guy. About the best thing you can do here with a fresh commercial is flying boxes around New Mexico in a Baron, but good luck finding those jobs; they're few and few between.

Quoting vio (Reply 28):
3. Bush Flying in Alaska... Lots of small time operators there. Just like Northern Canada, I wouldn't put the "regionals" or the "mom and pa operators" in the same boat with regional guys like Great Lakes Aviation.

Huh? Great Lakes IS a ma-and-pa small-time regional. I think you mean ERA, but even they fall under the same defiinition.

Quoting vio (Reply 28):
I fly Air Ambulance in the Arctic and our turboprops and jets are pretty nice machines. The environment we fly in is extremely challenging. Without sounding too cocky, I would say that Canadian Arctic pilots are some of the most experienced pilots in the world, both from a "stick and rudder" point of view as well as decision making skills.

But what percentage of Canadian pilots DON'T fly around in the arctic? Are those "southies" not good or experience enough to move onto those same operations?
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 7:15 pm

Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 30):
Not anywhere near enough to satiate demand.

Okay, so I guess, the question is: What is the forecast for pilots at the regional level and how many military guys will retire. Of course a guy flying an F-18 for the Navy will not want to fly as an F/O on the RJ for 18,000 a year. That's another issue.

Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 30):
For the GOOD corporate jobs, they'll want experience, and will just about always hire the previous part 121 guy. About the best thing you can do here with a fresh commercial is flying boxes around New Mexico in a Baron, but good luck finding those jobs; they're few and few between.

I'm not sure what you mean by this. How does one get to fly a King Air 200 or a small biz-jet? Surely some operators require that they have a 2 crew plane. I saw King Air 100s in the US crewed by two pilots. I'm not talking about going direct entry captain on a Gulfstream V.

Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 30):
Huh? Great Lakes IS a ma-and-pa small-time regional. I think you mean ERA, but even they fall under the same defiinition.

I didn't know Great Lakes was a "mom & pa" operation. As per Wikipedia, they have a fleet of 38 airplanes. That's not exactly a small operator. I was referring to those companies that have one or two otters or some small Navajo. In my books Great Lakes Aviation is quite a large operator.

Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 30):
But what percentage of Canadian pilots DON'T fly around in the arctic? Are those "southies" not good or experience enough to move onto those same operations?

I never said that...

What I meant was that a good number of 703, 704 operators (so not major airlines) fly in the North, not necessary the high arctic. For me "Northern Experience" is flying up in remote areas into strips that are less than ideal, uncontrolled airports and at best an NDB or RNAV approach, gravel runways, etc. Of course guys flying in the South are qualified, but entry level jobs are mostly found "in the North". There are guys flying in Southern Ontario such as Air Sprint, Sky Regional, etc. They're great to work for and gain valuable experience.
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 7:26 pm

Quoting Slider (Reply 27):
I get your point but the laws are arbitrary and have NOTHING to do with safety.

All safety laws are "arbitrary". "Safety" is a relative word. We all know that airline safety could be increased but economic interests inhibit it.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 29):
Generally yes. It's not a perfect correlation, but experience does make a difference. Look at it from a different field, who would you pick for your heart transplant surgery, the cardiologist who has done 1 successful transplant or the cardiologist who has done 100?

Far from any correlation.

Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 30):
Not anywhere near enough to satiate demand.

Yup. The Air Force is now graduating more drone pilots than aircraft pilots.
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 7:34 pm

Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 30):
Quoting vio (Reply 28):
1. U.S. Military

Not anywhere near enough to satiate demand.

Looking at the next few years demand, the US military should be able to meet the supply for the major for a few years. I know of a few military pilots who went reserve in order to pick up commercial hours so when the coming transition happens, they would be ready. These 'early birds' already have jobs at the majors (for some reason, a bunch at DL).

Quoting vio (Reply 31):
I saw King Air 100s in the US crewed by two pilots.

The US military hires a large number of King Air two pilot chase planes for the drones.

Quoting Mark2fly1034 (Reply 26):
But it is easier to take some guy off the street and train them to fly a UAV then a pilot.

No argument, but they do pick up valuable skills. Enough to qualify for some fraction of the 1,500 hours in my opinion. I've leaned over the shoulder of drone pilots and they are picking up 80% of what's needed in the cockpit. (Radio, ATC direction, avoiding other aircraft, handling emergencies which drones have far more of than a commercial plane, etc.) But I do not propose all drone hours count. Perhaps discount drone hours to 1/3rd of the time flown (or even 1/5th) and only allow those hours to count for up to 500 hours maximum.


In many ways, those drone pilots know where ATC is going...

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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 7:39 pm

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 3):
God forbid that pilots should become a high demand career, and airlines actually have to compete for the best new pilots, and pay a living wage to entry level pilots.

The requirement is going to hurt passengers, hurt pilots (who pay for training) and hurt small communities.

All for a safety improvement that makes some sense, but offers no measurable safety benefit at all.
 
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 8:08 pm

Quoting DiamondFlyer (Reply 25):

Unfortunately the better business model is doing things on the cheap. Until passengers stop buying the cheapest ticket they can, that isn't going to change. I'm in the same boat as you, but I'm wise enough to know that nothing is going to change the regional game until passengers stop buying the cheapest ticket and ALPA stops representing regional feed.

-DiamondFlyer

The reason I never buy this line of thinking is because most of the routes that are served by Regional Jets charge higher fares than routes that are served mainly by mainline planes. Basically Regional Jet passengers subsidize the cheap tickets that folks get at the mainline level, and instead themselves get a cheaper product.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 34):
Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 3):
God forbid that pilots should become a high demand career, and airlines actually have to compete for the best new pilots, and pay a living wage to entry level pilots.

The requirement is going to hurt passengers, hurt pilots (who pay for training) and hurt small communities.

All for a safety improvement that makes some sense, but offers no measurable safety benefit at all.

Let me ask you this. Do you want the airlines to be able to hire the best and do you want the very best to pursue a career in aviation, or do you want the status quo where wages are so bad you can't attract the best people in this industry and end up with lower qualifications as a result?

Since 9-11 what happened was that the regional airlines needed more pilots but because of what they were paying, they could no longer attract people with the same qualifications they had. So instead of increasing pay to continue to attract the best pilots, they instead lowered their hiring standards just to rush bodies into seats, and new airlines were created so that all pilots would start at the bottom which allowed flying to be assigned very cheaply.

Here is the dilemma we run into. Everyone has wised up, which means that people are no longer going to shell out the money for flight training that they used to. The Military isnt producing as many pilots as they used to. The Major's are going to start hiring regional pilots like crazy in the next few years. The regionals are going to need to hire more pilots because of this and Part 117. They are getting concessions which means that they are less attractive as employers than they used to be. The number of pilots applying to the regionals is going to decrease. It is going to have a long term effect on the regional industry.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 21):
The ability to pay hinges on financial viability. I can't recall a regional carrier that is making consistent investment grade profits.

This is more of a comment directed at our economic system in general, but one of the big problems with the economy is that our economy is all about lining the pocket of a few investors on Wall Street, where it should be oriented more to making sure that every american who is willing to work hard can have a job. Too often its all about making sure the shareholders are taken care of in this country, and I have a huge problem with that mentality. People like Carl Icahn and Warren Buffet who already have more money than they know what to do, unfortunately invest so much money in the stock market, than instead of their money going to helping other people, all it does is it helps them get more money from the rest of us. I hear the argument over and over on this site that companies do not exist for employees but to earn money for their shareholders. The way our economy is set up today that is true, but it creates so many other problems, and all you have to do is look at the airline industry to see what it has gotten us.
 
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 8:10 pm

Quoting planemaker (Reply 32):
Far from any correlation.

There is a correlation with pilot safety up to 600 flight hours. I do not get why 1500 for pilot and copilot. I agree with more hours, but the new limit has no correlation.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 34):
All for a safety improvement that makes some sense, but offers no measurable safety benefit at all.

If anything, it would have made more sense to raise the co-pilot to 600 hours and the pilot to 2,000 hours. Or perhaps the pilot must have 2,000 hours if the copilot has less than a thousand? Heck, the 600 hours correlation would best be appropriate to a pilot coming out of the schools, so that is lowering 1,000 to 600.


Eh, this will effect the small airlines. I fly out of LAX. In no way will there be enough of a pilot shortage to significantly effect me. But I feel for the small communities. I have friends who are in the merchant marine. If their local airport loses 'international' status, their union rules force them to move if the international airport is more than 2 hours away. Which might explain who one friend paid about 5% more when chosing between to homes (it was ten minutes closer to a large international airport, but it usually means a ten minute added drive to the little airport).

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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 8:27 pm

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 3):
The solution to the cost for training issue is that the airlines might actually have to invest in training for their best candidates.

This 1,500 hour rule essentially destroys any chance of a cadet-style program in the US.
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 8:44 pm

Quoting apodino (Reply 35):
Let me ask you this. Do you want the airlines to be able to hire the best and do you want the very best to pursue a career in aviation,

Does a higher, more costly barrier invite "the best" to join? I see how incumbent pilots can gain. So that's who lobbied for the rule, and they won.

Will newcomer pilots benefit? Does a higher barrier make piloting a more attractive career to a kid? That's actually a tricky question, because they have to pay (in years or financially) to get over that barrier. The incumbent pilots don't, so this is gravy to them.

Overall it's not a huge issue but it strikes me as unnecessary friction in the job market, whose purpose is unclear.
 
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 9:03 pm

Quoting apodino (Reply 35):
Everyone has wised up, which means that people are no longer going to shell out the money for flight training that they used to.

Not that I don't disagree but I think that there is a cultural shift that has happened. There simply are fewer people interested in becoming a pilot for a variety of reasons. AOPA has been working hard to reverse the falling pilot population trend. While flying costs are certainly a significant factor, it far from being the only factor.

Quoting apodino (Reply 35):
The Major's are going to start hiring regional pilots like crazy in the next few years.

It depends, really. I think that a few things may mitigate that. I think that there could be some more consolidation in the industry. Also, there is the trend towards upgauging and fleet rationalization/renewal. I also think that we will probably enter another serious recession once QE is halted... and that is a major, major wildcard!!! It can't be overstated enough.

Quoting apodino (Reply 35):
Too often its all about making sure the shareholders are taken care of in this country, and I have a huge problem with that mentality.

Again, not in disagreement but I think that it is the industry that is at the front of the line. If you actually take a look at the money split between shareholders and the firms on "Wall Street" you would be shocked. It is legalized "Nigeria Letter Scams."

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 36):
There is a correlation with pilot safety up to 600 flight hours.

The dynamics between a heart surgeon and a pilot are vastly different.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 38):
Does a higher, more costly barrier invite "the best" to join?

The best of what? The reduced population % of people that would today consider a pilot career?
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 9:07 pm

Quoting Flighty (Reply 38):

Does a higher, more costly barrier invite "the best" to join? I see how incumbent pilots can gain. So that's who lobbied for the rule, and they won.

Will newcomer pilots benefit? Does a higher barrier make piloting a more attractive career to a kid? That's actually a tricky question, because they have to pay (in years or financially) to get over that barrier. The incumbent pilots don't, so this is gravy to them.

Overall it's not a huge issue but it strikes me as unnecessary friction in the job market, whose purpose is unclear.

Right now the barrier is very costly as it is. And I do agree with what you are saying. Here is the thing though. The way the industry is structured makes it hard for loans to be paid off because of what has happened to the regional airlines. With regional airlines becoming careers for a lot of guys, it makes it that much harder for guys to upgrade. And if upgrade times are going to be what they have been in the past few years, (over 5 years at most regionals), and these scales are getting capped at 4 years, that makes it very hard indeed. Thus not only do you have a harder barrier to break through, but there is really no reward for a while for doing so. Thus the short term is that you don't attract the best candidates. And you don't attract a lot of candidates period. The way regionals got around this in the past was to lower their standards. They can't do that anymore. The only way the situation rights itself is for pay to be improved. How much will it take to make this an attractive field again? That I cannot answer. But it was clear even before the new regs came out that regionals were having a harder time filling classes, because people finally realize that the return on investment is very poor in this profession. Now that the new regs are out, this gets even worse.
 
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:21 pm

Quoting planemaker (Reply 39):
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 36):
There is a correlation with pilot safety up to 600 flight hours.

The dynamics between a heart surgeon and a pilot are vastly different.

Yes and no. A surgeon has far fewer errors after 400 operations. I just had a cousin complete about 2000 operations in India (500 of 4 types), in order to have sufficient experience to operate in the litigious US environment. If the insurance companies require a number of operations, there is a correlation. This was for an eye surgeon.

My two heart surgeon cousins also had to go to India to pick up enough experience before they could operate in the USA.

Yes, I have a LOT of cousins.  

But the dynamics are the same. The old phrase 'it takes ten thousand hours to become an expert' holds true to a limited degree. But there are many uncounted hours of prior experience that help with any profession.

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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 11:09 pm

Quoting Flighty (Reply 38):
Does a higher, more costly barrier invite "the best" to join?

No, it encourages people with the lowest cost of capital to pursue it.

Being a pilot will eventually be a lot like being an indentured servant.
 
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Mon Nov 11, 2013 11:16 pm

Quoting planemaker (Reply 39):
It depends, really. I think that a few things may mitigate that. I think that there could be some more consolidation in the industry. Also, there is the trend towards upgauging and fleet rationalization/renewal. I also think that we will probably enter another serious recession once QE is halted... and that is a major, major wildcard!!! It can't be overstated enough.

  

Very good point, and it is a situation I really fear happening, and the Fed set us all up for it. I don't know what is going to happen to the industry if this happens, and I actually think the regionals could get hit big time if this were to happen.
 
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Tue Nov 12, 2013 12:57 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 41):
But the dynamics are the same. The old phrase 'it takes ten thousand hours to become an expert' holds true to a limited degree. But there are many uncounted hours of prior experience that help with any profession.

You have a BIG extended family... and talented, too.

I agree with the "practice makes perfect" logic... it applies to everything - from golf swings to hoops shots. What I don't agree with is relating the professions.

Quoting apodino (Reply 43):
I don't know what is going to happen to the industry if this happens, and I actually think the regionals could get hit big time if this were to happen.

Not a pleasant thought... but it isn't "if" but when there is going to be some significant carnage. We got a slight foretaste of how economies would react when the Fed just hinted over the summer at taking the foot off of QE.
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Tue Nov 12, 2013 1:46 am

Quoting apodino (Reply 40):
The only way the situation rights itself is for pay to be improved.

Agree 100% with that. There is room for that, if the pool dries up.
 
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Tue Nov 12, 2013 1:58 am

Asia is hurting for pilots, bad. Chinese and now an Indian carrier have opened US (and other non-native) pilot bases.

The growth of aviation in Asia is continuing unabated...and someone will need to fly those thousands of planes....and the same time that the US retirements move into high gear.
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Tue Nov 12, 2013 2:19 am

The more regulation the more it favors big companies. Despite what some argue, big business loves big government because they know that it makes it very difficult for small players to enter the market and comply with all the regulations. Compliance is expensive but becomes a larger and large part of you costs the smaller you are. Heavy regulation favors the large airline, the chain restaurant, the big house building company, the supermarket and big box store. Ultimately, it harms the consumer.

It's a sort of Laffer curve of regulation. Too little and too much both hurt the consumer.

In this case, smaller airlines have trouble competing for the more limited talent pool made available by stricter regulation.
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Tue Nov 12, 2013 3:54 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 14):

So far, the only airline I know that has been significantly impacted is Great lakes:
http://www.eturbonews.com/39572/airl...on-act-caused-disruption-air-servi

Now, I'm sure other low paying airlines will feel some pain. In particular once their pilots are in more demand. The real impact will be at the airports small airlines fly to:

I ended up looking up the city on the web and I honestly fail to see why tax payers should subsidize the city. They are about a 2.5 hr drive from Denver (or just over 1 hr to Cheyenne). Plus, as the 7th most obese city in the country they are probably weight limited on many flights.  
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RE: New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?

Tue Nov 12, 2013 5:28 am

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 29):
So we should have no minimum standards? Be a pilot with no experience required?

There should be minimum standards. Just not a magic number seemingly pulled out of the air by the geniuses on Capitol Hill without first putting laws in place to counter the most glaring factors in the Colgan crash (fatigue and horrendous stall recovery techniques). (I'm aware that there were moves made to fix both, but not until the original ATP Law was drawn up.)

1,500 seems like so much of a kneejerk reaction put in place to ease the fears of John Q. Public instead of actually "getting something done". Would Colgan 3407's crew still have had their jobs in January of 2009 had the law been in place?

How many regional flights/operations in a 121 environment have taken place since low-time hiring really took off in the mid-2000s with a sub-1500 pilot up front? Of those, how many resulted in fatalities? The only one I can find was the Pinnacle ferry crash where the crew wanted to join "The 4-1-0 Club" and killed the engines. Quality over Quantity.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 41):
Yes and no. A surgeon has far fewer errors after 400 operations. I just had a cousin complete about 2000 operations in India (500 of 4 types), in order to have sufficient experience to operate in the litigious US environment. If the insurance companies require a number of operations, there is a correlation. This was for an eye surgeon.

By meeting the experience requirements, is one immune from error in surgery for the rest of their career?   That type of logic (not on your part, lightsaber, but on the government's) in thinking 1,499.9=Harrison Ford saying "GET OFF MY PLANE", but 1,500.0 means "Congratulations, we feel you are now sufficiently experienced!" got us into this situation.
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