iadguy73
Posts: 111
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 2:48 am

Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Wed Nov 13, 2013 6:32 am

Haven't seen a thread just devoted to this in a while...Now that the merger is 99% done deal I was wondering what impact this will have on BA and LH especially at current US hubs like PHL, CLT and PHX. None of them has significant service from either carrier, and not sure how much BA can increase frequencies from LHR. Could we see the return of LGW flights perhaps? Any new service from MAD or BCN on IB? Would the lonely daily service of LH at CLT and PHL stay?

Cheers!
 
USAirALB
Posts: 1644
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2007 4:46 am

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Wed Nov 13, 2013 6:44 am

On the BA side of things, BA will probably start CLTLHR.

On the LH side of things, I've heard rumors of LH switching the CLTMUC flight to FRA, or keeping it a A333 year round on a less than daily basis. I see no reason why LH wouldn't continue service to PHL.

I don't see IB to PHL/CLT.
E135/E140/E145/E70/E75/E90/CR2/CR7/CR9/717/732/733/734/735/73G/738/739/752/753/762/772/77W/319/320/321/333/343
 
chepos
Posts: 5932
Joined: Sat Dec 02, 2000 9:40 am

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Wed Nov 13, 2013 10:04 am

If anything I could see BA up-gauging the second daily to PHL to a 772 year round. PHL will become a hub to hub route for them, I would imagine LHR CLT would be added in the coming months to complement the daily US service.
LH would stay put in PHL..
It would be nice to see BA back in CLT.
Fly the Flag!!!!
 
PHX787
Posts: 7877
Joined: Thu Mar 15, 2012 7:46 pm

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Wed Nov 13, 2013 3:12 pm

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 1):
I don't see IB to PHL/CLT.

I don't see IB anywhere....they're in the pits, but hopefully that changes.


PHX....well, that's been doing excellent on its own without OW influence. Staying.
Follow me on twitter: www.twitter.com/phx787
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 4431
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Wed Nov 13, 2013 3:51 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 3):
PHX....well, that's been doing excellent on its own without OW influence. Staying.

Excellent is a strong word. Its one of the worst preforming longhaul BA routes.

That said, its not going anywhere.
It is what it is...
 
ckfred
Posts: 4694
Joined: Wed Apr 25, 2001 12:50 pm

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Wed Nov 13, 2013 4:18 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 4):
Quoting PHX787 (Reply 3):
PHX....well, that's been doing excellent on its own without OW influence. Staying.

Excellent is a strong word. Its one of the worst preforming longhaul BA routes.

That said, its not going anywhere.

You would think that PHX will improve with the merger. With all of the US elites in the Phoenix area, a fair number of them might have in the past flown to a UA hub and connected for LHR or elsewhere in Europe. With US joining oneworld and merging with AA, those elites will be more likely to fly BA to LHR and beyond.
 
uberflieger
Posts: 1417
Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2013 6:22 pm

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Wed Nov 13, 2013 4:21 pm

up until recently US used to market LH flights on their website - no more, and without that feed CLTMUC is toast

LH & *A loose big with this merger

I don't see LH replacing MUC with FRA to CLT and PHL is only a matter of time, especially should QR start up service
Thank you Tess Asplund
 
PDPsol
Posts: 1109
Joined: Fri Feb 20, 2004 5:09 am

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Wed Nov 13, 2013 4:31 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 3):
I don't see IB anywhere....they're in the pits, but hopefully that changes.

IB is focused on strengthening is existing routes to the United States, as well as enhancing its JV relationship with AA and AY, and coordinating TATL operations with its affiliate, BA.

IB has targeted key oneworld cities in the United States, especially JFK and MIA, as its area of focus. These markets represent an important part of the IB's business over the North Atlantic and the carrier has dedicated its management and operational focus to these cities.

The AA/US merger represents an exceptional opportunity for IB, as well as BA. Once the merger is complete, IB will be able to coordinate US hub traffic from PHL to MAD and onward connections and market its service to additional US hubs in the United States.

IB is turning its operations around and its owner, IAG, has stated repeatedly the carrier is a crucial part of its long-term strategy. IAG-owned Vueling is performing very well and will also benefit from the AA/US merger, as TATL traffic is fed to regional flights throughout Europe.

AA/US is a great opportunity for BA, IB and Vueling.
 
vv701
Posts: 5773
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 10:54 am

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Wed Nov 13, 2013 6:26 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 4):
Excellent is a strong word. Its one of the worst preforming longhaul BA routes.

Thbis statement of, apparently, fact refers to BA's LHR-PHX service. What is the source for this statement.

Here are some facts:

Around a year ago BA increased the frequency of its PHX service from Daily except Wednesday to Daily. [Source: BA Press Release of 27 June 2012.] This indicates that it was one of their best performing long-haul routes as it was the only such route with an announced frequency increase at that time (although frequency increases were simultaneously announced from LHR to ABZ, EDI, MAN, OSL and ZRH).



The great circle distance between LHR and PHX is 5,271 miles, 3.4 per cent less than that for LHR-LAX. [Source: Great Circle Mapper.} However fares to PHX are usually higher than those to LAX. Here are comparisons for flights from LHR on 27 November returning on 4 December:

F Class. PHX: £6,302. LAX: £11,677.
J Class. PHX: £5089. LAX: £4374.
W Class. PHX: £2909. LAX: £2596.
Y Class. PHX: £646. LAX: £585

[Source BA web site 1800 hrs GMT 13 November.]

So the absolute yield in all classes except F is above that derived from the LAX route even though LAX is further.

In 2012 BA carried 181,021 passengers between LHR and PHX. [Source: CAA web site.)

In 2012 BA operated a 337 seat 'Mid J' Configured 744 on six days a week between LHR and PHX until 29 October and seven days a week from 29 October. [Source: The BA Source web site.] The average number of passengers per flight was therefore 283 giving an average load factor of 84.5 per cent. Compare this with an overall BA passenger load factor for 2012 of 79.9 per cent. [Source: IAG 2012 Annual Report]

So all the actual evidence suggests that the BA LHR-PHX service is far from being amongst their worst performing long-haul routes.
 
JetBlueCLT
Posts: 288
Joined: Tue Oct 22, 2013 6:55 pm

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Wed Nov 13, 2013 9:26 pm

Quoting uberflieger (Reply 6):

I think your wrong. LH has a huge BMW contract down here. I would imagine they would not want to lose that contract to the new AA. I could see year round LH... 4 weekly in the winter and a daily A343/A333 in the summer. We will have to see how it all plays out.
 
SelseyBill
Posts: 444
Joined: Wed Jul 17, 2013 7:38 pm

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Wed Nov 13, 2013 9:36 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 4):
Its one of the worst preforming longhaul BA routes. .

Where did you get that idea from ?

All my personal feedback about LHR-PHX suggests the opposite. Are there any 'a-nutters' with further/ better informed evidence about this ?

The fact that BA have relatively recently gone from 6fpw to daily suggests strength rather than weakness.
 
greenwichsud
Posts: 52
Joined: Tue May 13, 2008 11:18 am

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Wed Nov 13, 2013 9:37 pm

Quoting uberflieger (Reply 6):
LH & *A loose big with this merger

Does CLT really generate enough O&D for this to be a "big loss"?

And if it was a big enough loss, then that implies that it is a big enough market for LH to continue with a downgauged flight and provide connections through FRA or MUC.

WRT connections, there's very little connectivity provided by US that can't be picked up handily by UA:

CLT -> IAD
PHL -> EWR/IAD
PHX -> LAX/DEN/SFO
 
RyanairGuru
Posts: 6554
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:59 am

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Wed Nov 13, 2013 9:41 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 4):
Its one of the worst preforming longhaul BA routes.

What on earth is your source for that? I'm sorry, but if you are going to make such an emphatic statement then you should be able to reference it.

LON-PHX has been flown continuously since the 1990s, and I think it goes back longer to BCAL. A route that's stuck around for 20 years and is operated by a 747 doesn't sound like an under-performing route, especially when you consider just how many long haul destinations BA have trimmed over the last 15 years.

Quoting uberflieger (Reply 6):
without that feed CLTMUC is toast

I doubt it. The local market is surprisingly strong, courtesy of BMW, so I think it will stick around albeit on smaller gauge. I think the importance of LH flights to US hubs is somewhat over-stated: UA is LH's American partner, and LH feed passengers onto LH if possible due to their JV. The relationship between US and LH is nowhere near as cozy.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
luckyone
Posts: 2280
Joined: Thu Aug 21, 2008 1:50 pm

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Wed Nov 13, 2013 9:53 pm

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 1):
On the LH side of things, I've heard rumors of LH switching the CLTMUC flight to FRA, or keeping it a A333 year round on a less than daily basis.
Quoting JetBlueCLT (Reply 9):
I think your wrong. LH has a huge BMW contract down here. I would imagine they would not want to lose that contract to the new AA.

Yes, BMW has considerable operations in Upstate South Carolina, and LH uses CLT to serve that. You pass several manufacturing facilities on I-85 associated with it. So I'm sure they will at least stick it out for a while to see if the service can hold its own. If it does not, I'm sure LH will figure out a way to accommodate its BMW business through its ATL service. Upstate SC is basically halfway between ATL and CLT. If they do that we may see ATL returning to an A340.
 
usairways85
Posts: 3537
Joined: Fri Nov 16, 2001 11:59 am

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Wed Nov 13, 2013 10:11 pm

I see AA/BA flying at least 4 x day on PHL-LHR. I would not be surprised to see further reductions to LH's PHL-FRA flt.
 
steeler83
Posts: 7391
Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2006 2:06 pm

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Wed Nov 13, 2013 10:12 pm

I'm thinking LH will probably cease operations at PHL and CLT, I see PHL-DUS/TXL/MUC as well as CLT-DUS/TXL/MUC on either AA metal or Air Berlin, or a combination of the two.
Do not bring stranger girt into your room. The stranger girt is dangerous, it will hurt your life.
 
Cloneof501
Posts: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:33 am

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Wed Nov 13, 2013 10:20 pm

Quoting SelseyBill (Reply 10):

PHX may not be the strongest hub, but for some reason there's an absolute obsession on hating on PHX and anything related to it on a.net. The PHX-LHR has been doing fine and all the moves from BA have shown they're making money on it, otherwise they wouldn't have upped frequency.
 
a380787
Posts: 4144
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:38 pm

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Wed Nov 13, 2013 11:25 pm

Quoting steeler83 (Reply 15):
I'm thinking LH will probably cease operations at PHL and CLT, I see PHL-DUS/TXL/MUC as well as CLT-DUS/TXL/MUC on either AA metal or Air Berlin, or a combination of the two.

LH already flies to hostile rival territory such as DFW-FRA, DTW-FRA, and ATL-FRA. You'd seriously think PHL-FRA would vanish into thin air upon dropping of non-existent non-JV US Airways feed ?

Stop thinking in the AA mentality that only hub-to-hub routes can succeed.
 
chepos
Posts: 5932
Joined: Sat Dec 02, 2000 9:40 am

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Wed Nov 13, 2013 11:33 pm

PHL-FRA on LH will not be dropped, at the moment I don't think they get much feed from US in PHL.
Fly the Flag!!!!
 
uberflieger
Posts: 1417
Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2013 6:22 pm

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Thu Nov 14, 2013 12:23 am

Quoting a380787 (Reply 17):

it's not about hostile territory, but the power of alliances and you couldn't have brought up better examples

all 3 LH routes have seen a steady down gauging, because they are not to UA hubs or popular tourist destinations

the loss of US as a partner is the perfect excuse to discontinue MUCCLT and have the BMW folks go through ATL
Thank you Tess Asplund
 
MAH4546
Posts: 24522
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Thu Nov 14, 2013 12:30 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 12):
What on earth is your source for that? I'm sorry, but if you are going to make such an emphatic statement then you should be able to reference it.

It's one of only two BA routes in the U.S. with subisides, and they are quite heavy. BWI-LHR is the other one. BA has threatened to leave before.

Quoting steeler83 (Reply 15):
I see PHL-DUS/TXL/MUC as well as CLT-DUS/TXL/MUC on either AA metal or Air Berlin, or a combination of the two.

For what purpose? Airberlin already has 3x daily service to JFK and 2x daily service to Miami which overlaps with PHL and CLT, respectively (and, yes, MIA and CLT overlap when it comes to Europe, because the majority of that Europe traffic is going to Florida and California, where MIA works perfectly fine as a connecting point).
a.
 
MesaFlyGuy
Posts: 3815
Joined: Fri Dec 21, 2012 8:36 pm

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Thu Nov 14, 2013 12:33 am

Quoting greenwichsud (Reply 11):

Since UA no longer flies PHL-EWR I don't think that's completely accurate. That being said, I definitely think the CLT are here to stay. Not at the guavs they are now, but not completely gone. The PHL flight will be interesting to watch. I'm not familiar with the ratio of O&D:Star connections on the flight.
The views I express are my own and do not reflect the views and opinions of my company.
 
BigGSFO
Posts: 2213
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2005 5:27 am

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Thu Nov 14, 2013 12:57 am

I'd expect we see US-Spain (under the JV):
BOS-MAD - seasonal?
JFK-MAD (2-3 daily)
PHL-MAD
CLT-MAD
MIA-MAD (3 daily)
ORD-MAD
DFW-MAD
LAX-MAD

JFK-BCN
PHL-BCN
MIA-BCN

I wonder if a seasonal DFW-BCN would work? Would also like to see some service to Malaga and Valencia too.
 
USAirALB
Posts: 1644
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2007 4:46 am

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Thu Nov 14, 2013 1:55 am

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 20):
MIA works perfectly fine as a connecting point

Yeah, unless one wants to avoid the nightmare that is MIA customs and immigration, and fly via ATL/IAD/CLT.
E135/E140/E145/E70/E75/E90/CR2/CR7/CR9/717/732/733/734/735/73G/738/739/752/753/762/772/77W/319/320/321/333/343
 
JetBlueCLT
Posts: 288
Joined: Tue Oct 22, 2013 6:55 pm

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Thu Nov 14, 2013 3:26 am

Quoting steeler83 (Reply 15):

I highly doubt they'll drop CLT and PHL. Thats just foolish. Just because US will be exiting the Star doesn't mean LH cant make CLT and PHL work. I can't speak for PHL though but with the BMW contracts LH has down here...they would be kinda dumb to drop those contracts.
 
PanHAM
Posts: 8531
Joined: Fri May 06, 2005 6:44 pm

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Thu Nov 14, 2013 10:31 am

It's not only BMW that supports MUC CLT, there are hundreds of German firms with manufacturing sites in NC and SC.

In addition to the firms that are supported by the FRA ATL flight, such as VW in Chattanooga and Mercedes in Tuscaloosa. They connect to the automobile Cluster around FRA. Cargo is handled most via all cargo flights to ATL and a freight forwarder has LUX-HSV dedicated fligthts to serve German industry in that area.

PHL was one of the early routes to the US, my bet is, all These will stay.
powered by Eierlikör
 
brilondon
Posts: 3014
Joined: Sun Aug 21, 2005 6:56 am

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Thu Nov 14, 2013 10:36 am

If LH were to loose anything then they should take this opportunity to step in with their own metal and fly the route. If there is not enough business then maybe no one will notice and not enough business to warrant the flight.

[Edited 2013-11-14 02:37:45]
Rush for ever; Yankees all the way!!
 
PHX787
Posts: 7877
Joined: Thu Mar 15, 2012 7:46 pm

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Thu Nov 14, 2013 1:35 pm

Quoting VV701 (Reply 8):
Around a year ago BA increased the frequency of its PHX service from Daily except Wednesday to Daily. [Source: BA Press Release of 27 June 2012.] This indicates that it was one of their best performing long-haul routes as it was the only such route with an announced frequency increase at that time
Quoting VV701 (Reply 8):
The great circle distance between LHR and PHX is 5,271 miles, 3.4 per cent less than that for LHR-LAX. [Source: Great Circle Mapper.} However fares to PHX are usually higher than those to LAX. Here are comparisons for flights from LHR on 27 November returning on 4 December:

Not to mention my sources at PHX tell me this thing regularly leaves with a load of 80-95% or more. About half of this is O&D and the other half is euro traffic. With the merger this will most certainly increase the loads on this route.

Given that, if IB makes it out of the dumps, one can wonder if they'll add additional service to MAD for euro connections....but there's not too much O&D to MAD from PHX at all and like i said this is given IB comes out of their struggles.

Quoting VV701 (Reply 8):
So all the actual evidence suggests that the BA LHR-PHX service is far from being amongst their worst performing long-haul routes.

Don't worry my friend. 90% of people on this site think PHX is just a barren desert with a small population. Most don't realize this airport has a pull of nearly 7 million, and a metropolitan area of 4 million.
Follow me on twitter: www.twitter.com/phx787
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 4431
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Thu Nov 14, 2013 3:41 pm

First let me clarify that I should have said one of the worst preforming North American LHR routes by yields. That is very much true. The others being BWI and YYZ. ATL isnt a barn burner either.

Quoting VV701 (Reply 8):
Here are some facts:

Around a year ago BA increased the frequency of its PHX service from Daily except Wednesday to Daily. [Source: BA Press Release of 27 June 2012.] This indicates that it was one of their best performing long-haul routes as it was the only such route with an announced frequency increase at that time (although frequency increases were simultaneously announced from LHR to ABZ, EDI, MAN, OSL and ZRH).

You think because PHX-LHR went daily when BA didnt announce any other increases that its one of the best preforming routes? Thats ridiculously simplistic and faulty reasoning. Airlines announce expansions at different times.

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 20):
It's one of only two BA routes in the U.S. with subisides, and they are quite heavy. BWI-LHR is the other one. BA has threatened to leave before.

  

They are still ponying up cash to BA for the PHX-LHR. Thats a lot of evidence right there.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 27):
Not to mention my sources at PHX tell me this thing regularly leaves with a load of 80-95% or more. About half of this is O&D and the other half is euro traffic. With the merger this will most certainly increase the loads on this route.

First off, the PHX-LHR local market could not fill half of 744. It couldnt fill half of a 777. Not to mention, BA doesnt get the entire PHX-LHR market. So this is automatically wrong.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 27):
Don't worry my friend. 90% of people on this site think PHX is just a barren desert with a small population. Most don't realize this airport has a pull of nearly 7 million, and a metropolitan area of 4 million.

Oh please. Dont foolishly cry victim. Most of the time people are correcting some false clueless aspirations for the PHX market. Nobody thinks that. Most people who know about the airline industry think of PHX is that its an unusually US/Canada market. PHX has two million international O&D passengers a year and over half of that is Canada and Mexico. No other international market in the US is so heavy weighted toward our neighboring nations.

PHX is a market that can support one European flight based on its O&D and it has that. I have no doubt that the preformance of the flight will improve when US joins OneWorld, but lets not go overboard.
It is what it is...
 
steeler83
Posts: 7391
Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2006 2:06 pm

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Thu Nov 14, 2013 9:45 pm

Quoting JetBlueCLT (Reply 24):
I highly doubt they'll drop CLT and PHL. Thats just foolish. Just because US will be exiting the Star doesn't mean LH cant make CLT and PHL work. I can't speak for PHL though but with the BMW contracts LH has down here...they would be kinda dumb to drop those contracts.

But the thing is, US already flies to FRA and MUC, while LH has only the lone A330 to FRA. As someone questioned before, what is the O&D-Star connection ratio for LH on PHL-FRA? If that is mostly O&D then maybe it will stick around. As I said, tho, US is flying A330s to FRA and MUC as well...

PHL is a huge market. Maybe there IS enough O&D for Oneworld vs. Star competition. I guess we shall see...
Do not bring stranger girt into your room. The stranger girt is dangerous, it will hurt your life.
 
usairways85
Posts: 3537
Joined: Fri Nov 16, 2001 11:59 am

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Thu Nov 14, 2013 10:19 pm

Quoting steeler83 (Reply 29):

But the thing is, US already flies to FRA and MUC, while LH has only the lone A330 to FRA. As someone questioned before, what is the O&D-Star connection ratio for LH on PHL-FRA? If that is mostly O&D then maybe it will stick around. As I said, tho, US is flying A330s to FRA and MUC as well...

PHL is a huge market. Maybe there IS enough O&D for Oneworld vs. Star competition. I guess we shall see...

I don't have hard facts but LH has routinely cut frequencies on the PHL route during the off season. Seasonal reductions have been more prevalent recently but LH has done this at PHL for a while. I also vaguely remember some people reporting that PHL was not a great performer. I don't know maybe there will be some *A holdouts that will use LH.
 
dtw9
Posts: 893
Joined: Mon Sep 22, 2003 10:09 am

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Thu Nov 14, 2013 10:36 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 17):
LH already flies to hostile rival territory such as DFW-FRA, DTW-FRA, and ATL-FRA.
Quoting uberflieger (Reply 19):
all 3 LH routes have seen a steady down gauging, because they are not to UA hubs or popular tourist destinations



Show me where FRA-DTW has been down gauged.
 
User avatar
IrishAyes
Posts: 2144
Joined: Sat Jan 26, 2008 6:04 pm

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Thu Nov 14, 2013 10:39 pm

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 22):
I wonder if a seasonal DFW-BCN would work? Would also like to see some service to Malaga and Valencia too.

It wouldn't. BCN is a highly seasonal, low-yielding destination. Similar to FCO. There is not much of a local market between DFW and BCN, and even with connections, BCN is capably connected to MIA and JFK on OneWorld at the moment. DFW wouldn't add much value.

As for AGP and VLN, the DL experiments from JFK haven't been what I would call grand slams by any means....I would be very surprised to see those high on AA's list of top aspirations.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 27):
Not to mention my sources at PHX tell me this thing regularly leaves with a load of 80-95% or more. About half of this is O&D and the other half is euro traffic. With the merger this will most certainly increase the loads on this route.

Throwing out the classic "load factor is everything" crap? Need I go further?

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 27):
this is given IB comes out of their struggles.

IB has shown signs of recovery from Q3 2013 performance.
confidence is silent. insecurities are loud.
 
BP1
Posts: 133
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2007 4:39 am

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Thu Nov 14, 2013 11:20 pm

I was on the team that came to PHX back in 1995 to ramp up the operations for the inauguration in 1996.

INAUGURAL: July 1, 1996
AIRCRAFT: DC-10-30 (Old BCAL in BA colors)
CLASSES: First, Club World, Economy
ROUTE: London Gatwick - Phoenix - San Diego - Phoenix - London Gatwick
FREQUENCY: (4) days a week

UPGRADES: Flight has upgraded to a 777 and then to a 747-400
UPGRADES: The San Diego sector was eventually dropped and SAN picked up a non-stop
UPGRADES: Flight frequency moved to 5, then 6 days per week
UPGRADES: London Gatwick was moved to London Heathrow
UPGRADES: 2012 - Frequency increased to 7 days a week.

PARTNERSHIPS: We partnered with America West for a while to feed the flight. This was a great relationship and feed the flight each day.

UK - PHX TRAFFIC: At one point, the numbers were 60-70% UK/Europeans on the flight in the 1990's. That number fluctuates these days. Be interesting to see how AA will now feed with the merger through PHX.

I don't work for BA, but cannot wait to earn miles again as a loyal USAirways flyer but now as an AA flyer in a month of two. I have used UA and US for the LHR flights to keep miles, but to be back on To Fly To Serve, that is a great thing.
"First To Fly The A-380" / 26 October 2007 SYD-SIN Inaugural
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 4431
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Thu Nov 14, 2013 11:22 pm

Quoting irishayes (Reply 32):
It wouldn't. BCN is a highly seasonal, low-yielding destination. Similar to FCO. There is not much of a local market between DFW and BCN, and even with connections, BCN is capably connected to MIA and JFK on OneWorld at the moment. DFW wouldn't add much value.

Yep. Dont look for DFW-BCN to be flown. Ever.

Quoting steeler83 (Reply 29):
PHL is a huge market. Maybe there IS enough O&D for Oneworld vs. Star competition. I guess we shall see

At PHL yes, but at CLT, no.
It is what it is...
 
upwardfacing
Posts: 248
Joined: Thu Apr 04, 2013 6:56 am

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Thu Nov 14, 2013 11:41 pm

Any chance for a 3rd daily BA LHR-PHL?
 
Osubuckeyes
Posts: 1680
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2004 10:05 am

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Thu Nov 14, 2013 11:44 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 28):
They are still ponying up cash to BA for the PHX-LHR. Thats a lot of evidence right there.

If you could provide a source of this that would be great. I spent about an hour looking for anything on PHX-LHR subsidies, but could only find anything related to the BWI subsidies.
 
MesaFlyGuy
Posts: 3815
Joined: Fri Dec 21, 2012 8:36 pm

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Fri Nov 15, 2013 12:02 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 27):
Given that, if IB makes it out of the dumps, one can wonder if they'll add additional service to MAD for euro connections

uhhh...no. IB is in no place to be adding flights to low-yielding markets where they would bank off of connections.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 27):
Don't worry my friend. 90% of people on this site think PHX is just a barren desert with a small population. Most don't realize this airport has a pull of nearly 7 million, and a metropolitan area of 4 million.
Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 28):
Oh please. Dont foolishly cry victim. Most of the time people are correcting some false clueless aspirations for the PHX market. Nobody thinks that. Most people who know about the airline industry think of PHX is that its an unusually US/Canada market. PHX has two million international O&D passengers a year and over half of that is Canada and Mexico. No other international market in the US is so heavy weighted toward our neighboring nations.

PHX is a market that can support one European flight based on its O&D and it has that. I have no doubt that the preformance of the flight will improve when US joins OneWorld, but lets not go overboard.

Thank you!
The views I express are my own and do not reflect the views and opinions of my company.
 
flyjoe
Posts: 140
Joined: Thu Nov 24, 2005 1:10 am

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Fri Nov 15, 2013 12:43 am

Quoting uberflieger (Reply 19):

the loss of US as a partner is the perfect excuse to discontinue MUCCLT and have the BMW folks go through ATL

------------

The BMW folks won't go through ATL if they want to stay on LH for corporate discount purposes. They surely won't drive 2.5 hours, not counting the unpredictable traffic to get to The airport. If LH doesn't continue CLT, that traffic will be routed through Star connections on UA via IAD or EWR. Although UAX may need to do something with the RJ types with a E70 or CR7 to capture the premium traffic.

Remember that LH used to serve CLT in the pre-alliance era with a 747 to FRA with no feed on the USA side. Of course there were only 2 or 3 TATL destinations from CLT and the S14 sked has about 10.
 
BP1
Posts: 133
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2007 4:39 am

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Fri Nov 15, 2013 1:29 am

During the Summer of 2008, at the height of the Great Recession, The Arizona Office of Tourism and The City of Phoenix granted $650,000 USD to British Airways to be spent in 2008 and 2009 to "Boost demand on the flight." (PHX-LHR) The link is below:

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2008/06/16/story9.html

When we started up service from Phoenix, the City of Phoenix Aviation Department was beyond professional and supportive, not just in luring BA, but during those critical start up years, and from my friends at BA, they still are today. Deborah, Ann, Dutch and their teams were miraculous and really rolled out the red carpet for us 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1998. The City was very aggressive on their pitch to us and those details, I believe, are confidential but very attractive.

The deal with America West is attached from June 2006.

http://www.airlineinfo.com/dotorders/960624.pdf

[Edited 2013-11-14 17:37:00]
"First To Fly The A-380" / 26 October 2007 SYD-SIN Inaugural
 
vv701
Posts: 5773
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 10:54 am

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Fri Nov 15, 2013 2:32 am

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 28):
You think because PHX-LHR went daily when BA didnt announce any other increases that its one of the best preforming routes?

Please read what I said and please refrain from putting words into my mouth and telling others what you think I think, particularly as you have moved your own goal posts and now say that you had meant to say something very different to what you actually said in Reply 4.

What I actually SAID was

Quoting VV701 (Reply 8):
the actual evidence suggests that the BA LHR-PHX service is far from being amongst their worst performing long-haul routes

Not being the worst is clearly not necessarily the same as being "one of the best". Indeed they can be as different as BA's worldwide long-haul network and their UK-USA services.

If you had read my post you would have seen I provided several and not just one piece of data. Together I said that these data SUGGEST that the BA LHR-PHX service "is far from being amongst their worst performing long-haul routes".

The other data I provided included the fact that absolute yields in their J, W, and Y Class cabins are higher than on their slightly longer flights to LAX. I also provided data that the passenger load factor on their PHX flights in calendar 2012 was significantly above BA's overall (worldwide) load factor in the same period. This evidence taken as a whole suggests - no more and no less - that the BA PHX route is not amongst the worst performing of ALL BA's long-haul routes.

You appear to be looking at the BA LHR-PHX flight in a similar way to their LHR-BWI flight. But they are very different. The aircraft used on their BWI service is a three-class 763 carrying a maximum 189 passengers. This is the smallest (in terms of number of passengers) aircraft in BA's long haul fleet. BA do not use this type on their PHX flights. Neither do they use any of their three differently configured, larger 772s. Nor do they use their still larger 77Ws. Only rarely have any of BA's 299-seat configured 744s been operated on the PHX route. Instead BA have almost always used what was the highest capacity aircraft in their fleet, until the recent introduction of the A 380, their 744s each configured for up to 337 passengers. Their capacity is 78 per cent above that of their 763s.

The difference here is between my sourced evidence and what it suggests and your so-far unsupported assertion of fact complicated by your original failure to say what you actually meant to say.
 
Cloneof501
Posts: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:33 am

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Fri Nov 15, 2013 2:38 am

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 28):
They are still ponying up cash to BA for the PHX-LHR. Thats a lot of evidence right there.

Evidence that you didn't even care to verify or link...
 
a380787
Posts: 4144
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:38 pm

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Fri Nov 15, 2013 2:45 am

Quoting steeler83 (Reply 15):
I see PHL-DUS/TXL/MUC as well as CLT-DUS/TXL/MUC on either AA metal or Air Berlin, or a combination of the two.

Merging into an airline that cannot sustain something like JFK-FRA, and you think CLT-TXL can actually exist ??
 
steeler83
Posts: 7391
Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2006 2:06 pm

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Fri Nov 15, 2013 3:28 am

Quoting a380787 (Reply 42):
Merging into an airline that cannot sustain something like JFK-FRA, and you think CLT-TXL can actually exist ??

apples to oranges comparison. THere's no OW feed at FRA, at least not that I'm aware of anyway, and AA's JFK presence as far as hubs go is rather limited. With the new American taking over things at CLT, they'll have a large hub operation out of CLT providing access to Air Berlin's network over at TXL...

Besides, doesn't LH fly several non-stops FRA-JFK? They probably handle all the O&D traffic, and AA pretty much maintains an O&D-based 90-some daily flight operation. By that, I mean they probably had a limited amount of feed for their JFK-FRA flights.
Do not bring stranger girt into your room. The stranger girt is dangerous, it will hurt your life.
 
a380787
Posts: 4144
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:38 pm

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Fri Nov 15, 2013 3:35 am

Quoting steeler83 (Reply 43):
Besides, doesn't LH fly several non-stops FRA-JFK? They probably handle all the O&D traffic, and AA pretty much maintains an O&D-based 90-some daily flight operation. By that, I mean they probably had a limited amount of feed for their JFK-FRA flights.

So you're admitting AA, with its corporate contracts and great FF program, can't compete against a foreign carrier that has no feed on the JFK side ?
 
MesaFlyGuy
Posts: 3815
Joined: Fri Dec 21, 2012 8:36 pm

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Fri Nov 15, 2013 3:50 am

Quoting a380787 (Reply 42):
Merging into an airline that cannot sustain something like JFK-FRA
Quoting a380787 (Reply 44):
So you're admitting AA, with its corporate contracts and great FF program, can't compete against a foreign carrier that has no feed on the JFK side ?

There is a LOT of competition on NYC-FRA. Competition that drives down yields. LH has two flights a day which, this summer, will operated by 1 a380 and 1 747. DL has a low-density 767 on the route. UA and LH fly EWR-FRA with a alot of capacity. The market is well covered, making serving it less appealing when there are less markets with llittle to no competition and any connectivity at all. If they were to fly PHL-TXL, they would have the market pretty much to themselves(slight competition from UA on EWR-TXL) and have connections through TXL on OW partner AirBerlin.

And LH also has a codeshare with JetBlue on the JFK side, so they do have some connectivity, albeit not that much.
The views I express are my own and do not reflect the views and opinions of my company.
 
USAirALB
Posts: 1644
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2007 4:46 am

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Fri Nov 15, 2013 4:05 am

Quoting FLYjoe (Reply 38):
Remember that LH used to serve CLT in the pre-alliance era with a 747 to FRA with no feed on the USA side. Of course there were only 2 or 3 TATL destinations from CLT and the S14 sked has about 10.

Yes. It was the second TATL route from CLT after LGW started in the late 80s. It operated for a few years with a 747 Combi flying FRA-CLT-IAH. IIRC, US started CLTFRA immediately after LH axed the flight.
E135/E140/E145/E70/E75/E90/CR2/CR7/CR9/717/732/733/734/735/73G/738/739/752/753/762/772/77W/319/320/321/333/343
 
incitatus
Posts: 2691
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 1:49 am

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Fri Nov 15, 2013 5:20 am

Quoting VV701 (Reply 40):
The other data I provided included the fact that absolute yields in their J, W, and Y Class cabins are higher than on their slightly longer flights to LAX.

The money an airline makes on a route is composed of the tickets that are actually sold. The data you provided said nothing about yields, or "absolute" yields, whatever that means. The data only showed that at a particular point in time fares for specific outbound and return flights in the BA website had different values, with most higher for PHX. A large portion of BA traffic may be seeing different fares that are not offered to you.

Even if the price for two routes is always matched 100% and the number of passengers is the same, the revenue could be very different. Say route A the airline sold 100 tickets far out at $400 and 200 tickets close in for $1000. Then route B saw 200 tickets far out for $400 and 100 tickets close in for $1000. Route A is doing a lot better. Route B may not do well even if it has more volume than route A, and its fares displayed on any searches are always higher than route A. All it takes is route B to lack the business travelers that buy the higher fares.
Stop pop up ads
 
usairways85
Posts: 3537
Joined: Fri Nov 16, 2001 11:59 am

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Fri Nov 15, 2013 5:29 am

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 46):
IIRC, US started CLTFRA immediately after LH axed the flight.

I found an article that states US started CLT-FRA in November '91 and LH at the time had 3 flts/week. So LH must have cancelled the route a short time after.
 
vv701
Posts: 5773
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 10:54 am

RE: Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities

Fri Nov 15, 2013 11:25 am

Quoting incitatus (Reply 47):
The data you provided said nothing about yields, or "absolute" yields, whatever that means.

The sourced data I provided was exactly that - sourced data. I was extremely specific as to what that data meant even down to the time and date that the data was obtained from the British Airways web site. The only specific I did not mention was that I chose the dates more or less at random and did not check any other dates. Here "more or less" means that I selected Day 3 for both the outward and return journey as I guessed that Wednesdays could be the day of the week that the PHX flight would have the poorest yields as, until a year ago, the BA flight did not operate on Day 3.

As to querying what I meant by "absolute" yields, it is clear from your subsequent comments that you know precisely what I meant. Indeed you virtually defined what I meant. Thank you. And I would welcome your suggestion as to what alternative publicly available data is indicative of any difference in yield between BA's services to PHX and LAX.

I provided several sets of data. I did so because each set on its own is hardly meaningful.

Increasing the service frequency a year ago was my starting point. But so what?

Using the aircraft configured with a large number of seats says nothing. It could be flying half empty. But it is another small piece of the jigsaw.

Providing total passenger numbers and calculating the passenger load factor further expands an emerging picture.

Comparing the route passenger load factor with the network passenger load factor adds more detail. But by itself is meaningless if tickets are sold at a comparatively low price.

Providing data that shows that the comparative price of tickets, even if obtained only at a specific time on a specific date for only one return journey on specific days chosen almost at random, favourably comparable to the same data on a similar length service serves to clarify the picture.

So if you believe my data is invalid please provide your own. Just do what I did. Check the BA web site for ticket prices for return trips on BA's services to PHX and LAX on any days of your choice and show that your theoretically valid argument has practical relevance to the performance of B A's PHX service. There are literally hundreds of pieces of data from which you can make a selection.

Yes I have been criticised. No. Nobody has yet provided a single piece of sourced data that can be put in the opposite pan of the balance. So I will continue to regard the price data I provided as part of the jigsaw that both suggests and is indicative (but does not prove) that BA's PHX service is not among their worst performing long haul routes.