user444555
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After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Wed Nov 13, 2013 7:45 am

I am wondering what everyone's thoughts are about what's next for B6, AS, VX, and F9 after AA/US merge? AA and US will be busy working on their merger (and US finishing their last one), so what's next for the remaining smaller airlines?

I am not saying there should be any more mergers, or will be. I know many here think there have been too many already. I am interested in what everyone thinks. Even if the DOJ was not successful in blocking AA/US, they did effectively serve notice that any future merger attempts will not be easy or without concessions, at least until after 2016. But if there were it could get interesting.

B6 - The only legacy partner I could see for B6, unless things drastically change, would be AA. I doubt UA would want to set up a competing hub across the Hudson (or be allowed to). The DOJ would never allow DL/B6 with DL big at JFK and LGA. I would expect to see more cooperation (not saying merger) between AA and B6 but I could be wrong.

AS - DL seems to make the most sense reading posts here. But as some have mentioned, DL's build up in SEA will not help them with the DOJ. Normally I would think AA would have something to say about AS/DL, but they are busy with US for the time being.

VX and F9 - Both of these have overlaps with UA and their LCC business models clash with most of the legacies. I don't see WN being interested, and these carriers may remain the independent LCC competition the DOJ is looking for.

Maybe no more future tie ups can happen without a distribution of assets among different carriers. And I do not agree with those who have warned that AA/US will lead to 1 or 2 legacy carriers in the future. I do not see any way the DOJ or the EU would ever allow it and it would cause a major realignment among global alliances.

Cheers.

[Edited 2013-11-12 23:47:35]

[Edited 2013-11-12 23:49:20]
 
mhkansan
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Wed Nov 13, 2013 10:25 am

Quoting user444555 (Thread starter):
VX and F9 - Both of these have overlaps with UA and their LCC business models clash with most of the legacies. I don't see WN being interested, and these carriers may remain the independent LCC competition the DOJ is looking for.

F9 will either be the ULCC competition for NK or they'll be happily married in the next few years.

VX has synergies with B6.
 
flyby519
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Wed Nov 13, 2013 2:55 pm

Predictions

VX IPO in late 2014-2015, within 3 years they will be acquired by B6

F9 gets whipped into shape by Franke. Lower costs than NK, and gives them serious competition. The two groups will be whipsawed against each other to maintain low costs. "Take this concession or else the other guys will beat us!" Investors profit.

AS plugs along on their own, more and more pressure from DL finances start to slip, becomes open to merger in 3-5years
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PHX787
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Wed Nov 13, 2013 3:06 pm

None of them will merge. not in the next 10 years.


B6 will probs expand with some long-haul airframes (I'm smelling an A350 order)

F9 will continue to go down the ULCC route.

AS....they're AS. they do what they're doing right already.

VX....hell idk what they're doing anymore. no comment.
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HPRamper
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Wed Nov 13, 2013 3:20 pm

The idea that AS can now easily merge with DL is off base.

DL, UA and AA are all now roughly the same size. AS+DL will again skew everything the way they originally did merging with NW.
 
AS737MAX
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Wed Nov 13, 2013 4:29 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 3):

If B6 got A350s, or even A330s, we would see GRU/GIG/LIM/SCL and codesharing with azul before LHR/CDG/NRT/ICN
As for AS, any merger would be blocked by the DOJ/DOT, it would wreak havoc on the PNW-PDX and ANC as well as all or most of the Intra-Alaska service would be pulled unless it is EAS. LAX would be folded into DLs exsisting ops, and SEA would become a new DL hub. But the FFer base of Alaskas is too loyal (And I'm one of them) to allow a merger with DL. It just won't happen.

[Edited 2013-11-13 08:39:30]
48 Flights, 43,720 Miles Flown
 
william
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Wed Nov 13, 2013 5:37 pm

I agree, the DOJ will have no stomach for more mergers and have sent the message loud and clear.
 
user444555
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Wed Nov 13, 2013 5:59 pm

Quoting william (Reply 6):
I agree, the DOJ will have no stomach for more mergers and have sent the message loud and clear.

I don't think we will see another attempt until after 2016. At that time DL might have competition from AA if they try anything with AS. It will be interesting to see if AA and B6 start doing more. I think they just earn miles now and don't codeshare. If AA thinks they can continue some sort of partnership with B6 at JFK and not hurt their PHL ops, it will be interesting to see what happens.

AA will have to keep JFK service levels consistent because of the settlement, so they might be able to use some domestic feed for their Intl ops.
 
BoeingGuy
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Wed Nov 13, 2013 6:08 pm

Quoting user444555 (Reply 7):
At that time DL might have competition from AA if they try anything with AS.

I've always said that I think it was a brilliant move by AS to lock in both AA and DL as significant partners if their long-term desire is to remain independent. One is not likely to want AS to be taken over by the other, and loss of either code share and connection revenue hurts AS's business model. Brilliant.
 
werdywerd
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Wed Nov 13, 2013 6:12 pm

Quoting AS737MAX (Reply 5):
If B6 got A350s, or even A330s, we would see GRU/GIG/LIM/SCL and codesharing with azul before LHR/CDG/NRT/ICN

Correct.

JetBlue's focus is ALL of North and South America

PS We start Lima next week
 
bobnwa
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Wed Nov 13, 2013 6:15 pm

I believe you will see DL and AS forming a partnership with each airline retaining its own individuality. This would be like AF/KL
 
user444555
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Wed Nov 13, 2013 6:21 pm

Quoting werdywerd (Reply 9):
PS We start Lima next week

Good luck on the new route.
 
deltairlines
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Wed Nov 13, 2013 6:22 pm

Quoting AS737MAX (Reply 5):
But the FFer base of Alaskas is too loyal (And I'm one of them) to allow a merger with DL. It just won't happen.

Yes, because it is the frequent flyer base of a regional airline that will stop a merger. :rolleyes:

Keep Delta My Delta was indeed a group of employees, retirees, customers, etc. that helped to fend off US Airways, but in the end, the financials and legalese (which are what REALLY matters, not the happy-go-lucky feelings of some customers who MIGHT not even be profitable to the carrier) are what will drive a merger.
 
AS737MAX
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Wed Nov 13, 2013 6:31 pm

Quoting werdywerd (Reply 9):

Where from? FLL? MCO?
48 Flights, 43,720 Miles Flown
 
BoeingGuy
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Wed Nov 13, 2013 6:35 pm

Quoting deltairlines (Reply 13):
Yes, because it is the frequent flyer base of a regional airline that will stop a merger. :rolleyes:

AS isn't a "regional" airline. In case you having noticed they are one of the majors and serve everything from OME to FLL to BOS to MEX to LIH to YYC. That doesn't sound too regional to me.

AS737MAX does have a good point though. AS has built brand loyalty that helps their business model. DL would likely lose much of that. When a faceless large company buys out your hometown loyal favorite and then likely guts many of the routes, that wouldn't do much for brand loyalty among AS's customer base.

Personally, the day DL bought AS, I'd start flying WN and B6 up and down the coast. I suspect many others would do the same.
 
werdywerd
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Wed Nov 13, 2013 6:59 pm

Quoting AS737MAX (Reply 14):
Where from? FLL? MCO?

FLL-LIM 1x Daily
 
ouboy79
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Wed Nov 13, 2013 7:45 pm

My personal opinion is that the mergers are done for now. The next step will be a new crop of startups after things settle down a bit and AA/US finish consolidating. At least we can hope for competitive reasons.
 
flyby519
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Wed Nov 13, 2013 8:34 pm

Quoting werdywerd (Reply 9):
JetBlue's focus is ALL of North and South America

Except Canada  
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redzeppelin
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Wed Nov 13, 2013 8:47 pm

Quoting flyby519 (Reply 18):
Except Canada

This is just me thinking out loud, but B6 needs to set something up with Porter for Canada. It just seems like a logical match to me. Especially if Porter wants to grow and expand their network with the C-Series, it seems like they might need a good trans-border partner.
 
flyby519
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Wed Nov 13, 2013 8:55 pm

Quoting redzeppelin (Reply 19):

I'd like to see that, and/or Westjet.
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B6WNQX
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Wed Nov 13, 2013 9:55 pm

Why doesn't B6 and AS merge like AF/KL. One corporate but two airlines. They can cooperate on buying power and corporate wide but each serving their niche. They currently both focus on their own side of the country primarily, but then they could codeshare with eachother system wide providing access to eachother's vast coastal networks.

Just throwing out a dream out their as I fly both almost exclusively.
 
werdywerd
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Wed Nov 13, 2013 10:25 pm

Quoting flyby519 (Reply 18):
Except Canada

Hmmmmm Don't be so sure. Never know what the future holds! Anything is possible  
 
ripcordd
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Wed Nov 13, 2013 10:42 pm

AS I see joining OW and dumping DL all together AS & either B6 or HA joining merging
F9 is starting to look more and more like NK and wouldn't surprise me if they joined up.
Everyone thinks that DL is just going to swoop in and force AS to do this n that I don't see that happening they are going to force AS in a hole where they will wake the sleeping giant that they will regret.
 
planespotting
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Wed Nov 13, 2013 10:52 pm

It's possible that in 5-10 years, after the US/AA merger is complete and after one of F9 or VX is combined with another carrier or actually is gone, we will be in the same position the airline industry was during the mid 90s ... financial success and booming profit potential.

And with that comes ... new entrants. And so the cycle will begin anew.
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TSS
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Wed Nov 13, 2013 11:06 pm

Quoting B6WNQX (Reply 21):
Why doesn't B6 and AS merge like AF/KL. One corporate but two airlines. They can cooperate on buying power and corporate wide but each serving their niche. They currently both focus on their own side of the country primarily, but then they could codeshare with eachother system wide providing access to eachother's vast coastal networks.

That sounds like a good plan to me. I raised that possibility in one of the hundreds of "who is going to merge with whom next?" threads here, and if I recall correctly the main objection was that B6 and AS have very different corporate cultures and might not mesh as well in reality as it seems they would on paper. Still, this is a different thread and other objections or possible benefits might be enumerated that weren't mentioned before.
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Cloneof501
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Thu Nov 14, 2013 1:34 am

Quoting B6WNQX (Reply 21):

Why doesn't B6 and AS merge like AF/KL. One corporate but two airlines. They can cooperate on buying power and corporate wide but each serving their niche. They currently both focus on their own side of the country primarily, but then they could codeshare with eachother system wide providing access to eachother's vast coastal networks.

Just throwing out a dream out their as I fly both almost exclusively.

From a financial perspective, the whole point of merging is to achieve synergies and eliminate a competitor. Seeing as those two serve entirely different niches and markets (for the most part), there's really a weak case for a merger, and combining them under a parent company won't really achieve anything.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the AF/KL separation due to foreign ownership rules in the EU?
 
PHX787
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Thu Nov 14, 2013 1:45 pm

Quoting AS737MAX (Reply 5):
As for AS, any merger would be blocked by the DOJ/DOT, it would wreak havoc on the PNW-PDX and ANC as well as all or most of the Intra-Alaska service would be pulled unless it is EAS. LAX would be folded into DLs exsisting ops, and SEA would become a new DL hub. But the FFer base of Alaskas is too loyal (And I'm one of them) to allow a merger with DL. It just won't happen.

I wonder if AS somehow suffers a catastrophic failure a la PA, what would happen?

Quoting AS737MAX (Reply 5):
If B6 got A350s, or even A330s, we would see GRU/GIG/LIM/SCL and codesharing with azul before LHR/CDG/NRT/ICN

Yep. that's true. But I hope they indeed to go long-haul.

They should call their long haul ops "Deep Blue" or something and have a plane named "Over the blue"  
Quoting william (Reply 6):
I agree, the DOJ will have no stomach for more mergers and have sent the message loud and clear.

Yep. We're done with mergers until more airlines start popping up.

Quoting werdywerd (Reply 9):
PS We start Lima next week
Quoting werdywerd (Reply 16):
FLL-LIM 1x Daily

Excellent choice! Good luck~ 
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planespotting
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Fri Nov 15, 2013 3:06 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 27):
Yep. We're done with mergers until more airlines start popping up.

I think a bankruptcy-based acquisition with an airline that would just shut down completely if it weren't acquired could still happen (F9 I'm looking at you).
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DL747400
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Fri Nov 15, 2013 3:19 pm

Quoting deltairlines (Reply 13):
Keep Delta My Delta was indeed a group of employees, retirees, customers, etc. that helped to fend off US Airways, but in the end, the financials and legalese (which are what REALLY matters, not the happy-go-lucky feelings of some customers who MIGHT not even be profitable to the carrier) are what will drive a merger.

Also, remember that US was attempting a hostile takeover of DL, which triggered the Keep Delta My Delta campaign.

Whatever happens, we will not see DL attempting a hostile takeover of AS. It will be a friendly, consensual deal and will have the full support of both airlines' respective Boards of Directors. And IMO, I do not believe that it will take 3-5 years for this to all materialize.
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NYCAdvantage
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Fri Nov 15, 2013 8:25 pm

Quoting DL747400 (Reply 29):
Whatever happens, we will not see DL attempting a hostile takeover of AS. It will be a friendly, consensual deal and will have the full support of both airlines' respective Boards of Directors. And IMO, I do not believe that it will take 3-5 years for this to all materialize.

  
how much will the DOJ objects to it, I don't know, but as long as it's not a hostile takeover I think that Seattle will see the big potential of having a domestic and international mega hub in their back yard.

the question is how many routes overlap between them and how will that merger hurt domestic competition?
I think Delta has been laying out the fundaments already in Japan with the NRT-HND argument, and since Japan is not playing ball with them and been the only one without a partner there, Delta will say that in order to compete in the Pacific they need this deal to go thru.
Will the DOJ buy it?
 
BoeingGuy
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Fri Nov 15, 2013 8:31 pm

Quoting NYCAdvantage (Reply 30):
I don't know, but as long as it's not a hostile takeover I think that Seattle will see the big potential of having a domestic and international mega hub in their back yard.

Seattle isn't that stupid. Many of AS's non-stop routes from SEA would be cut in a heartbeat. Why keep flying non-stops when you can route traffic through SLC and MSP. Why continue to serve the likes of SNA, ONT, SJC and BUR? Why fly SEA and PDX non-stops to LIH, OGG and KOA when you can route through LAX. And I'm quite sure that DL wouldn't want to continue to serve all those cities in Alaska. Not only that, but DL's frequent flier redemption (or lack there of) is a total scam.
 
NYCAdvantage
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Fri Nov 15, 2013 9:02 pm

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 31):
Seattle isn't that stupid. Many of AS's non-stop routes from SEA would be cut in a heartbeat.

I can a agree with you, but in the most recent merger there were measures taken by the DOJ to hold the inevitable at least for 3 years, that said Delta may have to obey by the same or even stronger measures taken against them in order to let the deal pass.
We all know, no mater how great or bad the merger is there will always be winners and losers.
 
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mariner
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Fri Nov 15, 2013 9:21 pm

Quoting planespotting (Reply 28):
I think a bankruptcy-based acquisition with an airline that would just shut down completely if it weren't acquired could still happen (F9 I'm looking at you).

Hmmm? Sorry, I'm not sure I understand what you mean.

Frontier has already been acquired by Indigo Partners (ex-Spirit), in a deal that closes at the end of the month. No bankruptcy proceeding was involved.

  

mariner
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srbmod
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Fri Nov 15, 2013 9:57 pm

Once the AA/US merger closes, that will close the book on any major mergers in the airline industry. Any additional consolidation will be among the smaller carriers. F9+NK is an intriguing possibility, but what about F9+G4? Using AF/KL as a model, what about a corporate tie-up between Alaska Airlines and Hawaiian Airlines?

JetBlue is likely to go it alone as they really don't have a need to merge with anyone and depending on the outcome of the divestitures the AA/US merger will require, they could be sitting pretty on the East Coast.
 
AS737MAX
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Fri Nov 15, 2013 11:50 pm

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 30):
Seattle isn't that stupid. Many of AS's non-stop routes from SEA would be cut in a heartbeat. Why keep flying non-stops when you can route traffic through SLC and MSP. Why continue to serve the likes of SNA, ONT, SJC and BUR? Why fly SEA and PDX non-stops to LIH, OGG and KOA when you can route through LAX. And I'm quite sure that DL wouldn't want to continue to serve all those cities in Alaska. Not only that, but DL's frequent flier redemption (or lack there of) is a total scam.

Absolutely correct. Here is my assumed breakdown if AS and DL Merged (Critique if needed)

Horizon:

-Soon to be 51 Q400s, DL hasn't flown turboprops for years-who do they sell/lease them too? UA? WS? AC? PD?
-All or most QX employees laid off

Skywest:

Rolled into DLs existing ops

Alaska:

737-400s retired immediately, as well as the 5 combis and the lone full freighter, 737-700, -800, and -900s kept.
DL isn't going to want to fly intra-Alaska, nor PDX/SEA-Hawaii (Save for SEA-HNL), and secondary airports would lose service aswell-ONT, BUR, SNA, OAK. AS is the primary carrier as well to Idaho and Montana. Why would DL want to serve BZN or MSO or BIL or BOI from SEA? They would just reroute you through SLC. If this merger was to go through, 75% of the PNW and Alaska would lose service. It would be fought much harder than AA/US. It's always happened- CO, NW, PA, TW, and sure AA has to maintain the hub levels at CLT, PHX, and PHL for 3 years, after that they are free to do what they want. But if AS went away, it would be a tremendous blow to the FF base as well as the Pacific Northwest.

Does anyone know how much EAS AS flies in Alaska?
48 Flights, 43,720 Miles Flown
 
aerohottie
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Sat Nov 16, 2013 12:28 am

I would love to see a 3-way B6-VX-F9 combination.
Or even a 4-way with NK included.

All are A320 family operators, with a good size replacement fleet on order, and largely dont overlap very much (except for NK and B6 florida/carribean ops).
What?
 
mhkansan
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Sat Nov 16, 2013 12:38 am

Quoting aerohottie (Reply 35):
I would love to see a 3-way B6-VX-F9 combination.
Or even a 4-way with NK included.

All are A320 family operators, with a good size replacement fleet on order, and largely dont overlap very much (except for NK and B6 florida/carribean ops).

That would be the biggest disaster in aviation history of all time!
 
superjeff
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Sat Nov 16, 2013 2:03 am

Quoting Cloneof501 (Reply 25):
Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the AF/KL separation due to foreign ownership rules in the EU?

Consider yourself corrected. it is due to international treaties. If AF/KL were combined, then they would have to abide by
the international treaties between France (if AF) or The Netherlands (if KL) for international services.
This means they could lose considerable route authority.
 
DL747400
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Sat Nov 16, 2013 5:17 am

Quoting srbmod (Reply 33):
Using AF/KL as a model, what about a corporate tie-up between Alaska Airlines and Hawaiian Airlines?

You have no idea what an absolute total and complete disaster the AF/KL corporate structure is and how terribly it is hurting the competitiveness of those airlines in the marketplace. If you had any friends who work for those airlines who could tell you the insiders view, you would never make such a comment. Yes, AF and KL each have scores of "other" issues, but that is for another discussion. Please tell me how placing two airlines with distinctly different cultures, brands and identities under one corporate umbrella makes sense? In this industry, cost savings and (as much as I hate to use the word) synergies differentiate successful deals from the failures. Thus far AF/KL under one parent group is a failure. The verdict is still out on whether this corporate model will survive within the airline industry.
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deltal1011man
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Sat Nov 16, 2013 6:31 am

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 4):

DL/UA are close. AA is going to be pretty big
by fleet AA is only about 100 aircraft smaller than DL....add in ~300-400 airplanes at US.......

Its hard to see just how things will shake out, but unless AA cuts a ton of capacity(which i don't think they will) I'm not sure if DL/AS would even be large than AA/US.
Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 14):

AS737MAX does have a good point though. AS has built brand loyalty that helps their business model. DL would likely lose much of that. When a faceless large company buys out your hometown loyal favorite and then likely guts many of the routes, that wouldn't do much for brand loyalty among AS's customer base.

.....Oh good night.
Just like DL is going to burn money in Asia because no one "likes" Delta, Deportland!!!, Its not NW!

This is said every single time, EVERY time, some airline buys some other airline. In this day in age every AS flyer knows who Delta is.......and on top of that its not like they have a place to go. If you need to fly SEA-SAN who are you flying without stopping (and likely a higher fare)?
Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 14):
Personally, the day DL bought AS, I'd start flying WN and B6 up and down the coast. I suspect many others would do the same.

most people don't buy tickets based on butt hurt. Fares, convenience, FF miles and maybe product are generally what brings people in.


Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 30):
Many of AS's non-stop routes from SEA would be cut in a heartbeat. Why keep flying non-stops when you can route traffic through SLC and MSP

Because Delta can look at a map? What good does flying SEA-HKG do if they cut all the feed? You think they can compete with United if they force PAX to fly BOS-SLC-SEA-HKG? come on man.
Why do you think DL is so dependent on AS now? think about it.......

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 30):
Why continue to serve the likes of SNA, ONT, SJC and BUR?

feed for the Asia flights..... because its makes money.....
Again, They cant compete with United if they are forcing 2-3 stops when UA offers 1-stops.
you can pretty much bet that if UA has flights to SFO(which they do to all those markets minus SJC) then DL will from SEA. OAK/SJC are to large not to be safe.

and if DL adds more flying to SEA I fully expect SJC/OAK to be on the short list (along with PHX)

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 30):
Why fly SEA and PDX non-stops to LIH, OGG and KOA when you can route through LAX.

why not fly it? Its not like Delta has to much capacity to OGG/LIH/KOA. They don't fly to them more than what they do because they simply don't have a place to fly it from. LAX has a pretty large amount of capacity to all the three markets and SLC is longer....thus cost more. So where else can they fly to the outer markets from? Hell ATL is the only place they can seem to make HNL work from outside of the west.....

SEA-OGG/LIH/KOA can be done with 739s or 757s and likely makes a good amount of money.

The Aloha type flying AS does would be gone. HA would be thankful, but that reduced capacity would make an even stronger case for SEA-Hawaii.

Quoting AS737MAX (Reply 34):
AS is the primary carrier as well to Idaho and Montana. Why would DL want to serve BZN or MSO or BIL or BOI from SEA?

feed?

Better question, why wouldn't they?


Quoting AS737MAX (Reply 34):
-Soon to be 51 Q400s, DL hasn't flown turboprops for years-who do they sell/lease them too? UA? WS? AC? PD?

you or I can't answer this. Delta likes Jets, no question about it
but they can't just do "anything" they want. They have to get an agreement with DALPA on scope before anything can be done. Will DALPA allow them to increase the fleet if they are props vs jets? will DALPA do like NW and just roll the number into the limits? will DALPA say no to any more large RJ flying beyond the current scope?

Quoting AS737MAX (Reply 34):
Rolled into DLs existing ops

maybe. explained above

Quoting AS737MAX (Reply 34):
737-400s retired immediately, as well as the 5 combis and the lone full freighter, 737-700, -800, and -900s kept.

nothing would go "immediately"
I would assume a small 737 or 320 order to replace the 734s, but who knows? its not like Delta parks airplanes just because.

Quoting AS737MAX (Reply 34):
DL isn't going to want to fly intra-Alaska,

The EAS markets they have no choice.
The rest....well do you (or anyone) have any hard data that suggest it would be a money loser for DL? no one has ever proved this.

The P2P west coast stuff i agree, its gone, Portland maybe... but Seattle is safe. With Delta's fleet they would likely be able to upgrade current routes, and add new flying with the 76 seaters and other aircraft types. It would also, IMO, give a nice boost to the TPAC flying and allow for more places and bigger aircraft.



As said by Delta's leaders on the Q3 call. Seattle, LA, and Salt Lake (even Minneapolis) have nothing to do with each other. All have a key roll in the network. Capacity isn't coming from SLC to grow SEA. SEA isn't going to get cut for SLC.
Delta wants to replicate more of a United type network out west. Salt lake simply isn't going to be a gate way to Asia and Seattle isn't going to be able to become Delta's key west coast gateway without feed and the corporate market in SEA.

by comparison Delta would have ~ 150 flights in LAX, ~300 flights in SEA and ~300 flights in SLC.

Having said all of that, Delta is limited by space in the two places it really wants to grow (LAX/SEA) so something is going to happen.
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srbmod
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Sun Nov 17, 2013 4:02 am

Quoting DL747400 (Reply 38):
You have no idea what an absolute total and complete disaster the AF/KL corporate structure is and how terribly it is hurting the competitiveness of those airlines in the marketplace. If you had any friends who work for those airlines who could tell you the insiders view, you would never make such a comment. Yes, AF and KL each have scores of "other" issues, but that is for another discussion. Please tell me how placing two airlines with distinctly different cultures, brands and identities under one corporate umbrella makes sense? In this industry, cost savings and (as much as I hate to use the word) synergies differentiate successful deals from the failures. Thus far AF/KL under one parent group is a failure. The verdict is still out on whether this corporate model will survive within the airline industry.

You're right, I have no idea, and frankly, the "complete disaster" you're making vague references to is not relevant to the discussion, as there are plenty of cases in which multiple airlines have been under the same corporate umbrella. Pretty much the entire regional airline industry are owned by a handful of holding companies. Just because things may not be going smoothly at AF/KL doesn't mean that would happen if AS and HA were to be under a similar corporate umbrella.
 
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TVNWZ
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Sun Nov 17, 2013 4:22 am

The staus quo is hard to maintain, praticularly in a stagnent economic environment when each company is looking for growth. So, the following could happen:

The big four start gobbling up the smaller guys. And yes, I don't see the DOJ doing anything because the small guys are just too small.

The big four combine to the big two. Big issues with this.

Smaller airlines merge to form a bigger network to compete with the Big 4. And the merged airlines may/ may not look anything like they look today as far as routes/hubs etc.

The Big Four start filling out areas where they may not be strong, or have room to grow, poaching on others territory. Some of this is happening now with DL in the Northwest.

There could be other ways to consolidate or grow as well.

What I do believe: that if we think everything will be stagnent for the next five or so years, we will probably be wrong.
 
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Sun Nov 17, 2013 7:48 am

Quoting TVNWZ (Reply 41):
The big four combine to the big two. Big issues with this.

I definitely don't see this in the next 5 years or 50. The DOJ, even a Republican DOJ, would have major issues with this, especially due to the slot controlled airports in the Northeast. One of the Big 3 alliances would lose a US member if this happened, and even if the DOJ allowed it, BA, LH, or AF/KL, whoever stood to lose, would certainly enlist the help of the EU to block any such merger or impose a poison pill size list of conditions.

I guess two of the alliances could merge but I definitely see the EU having a problem with that. They went easy on AA/US, because they only have AB, BA, and IB as major EU members imo. When you look at the long list of * and SKYteam members in the EU, there would be issues and the other remaining alliance would probably ask the EU to block it.

Letting AA/US, UA, or DL merge with one of the others would be like BOA and Chase merging. I don't see it happening.

Just for the heck of it, if UA and DL merged, that would make them the largest carrier at LGA and EWR, and #2 at JFK at current levels. They would pretty much dominate all major NYC airports. AA and UA? Almost as many problems in NYC, but throw in DCA/IAD, ORD, LAX, and they would be the largest carriers at DFW and IAH.

Even if this were allowed, I don't see why the airlines would do this. And this is something I have not seen raised yet. You could argue that maybe an airline would like to be the biggest carrier at all major airports in NYC with the huge market there, but why would an airline want to have huge hubs at DFW and IAH? CLT and ATL? At some point the overlap would start to be problematic and the return on investment, imo, would decrease.

This was one of the problems when AA had hubs in ORD and STL. Even if a mega-merger were allowed, I don't see a financially compelling reason for it considering the enormous capital investments a hub requires.

I am sure DL would like to buy AS, and maybe AA can look at B6 after they get this merger done. But with PHL so close even that might not make sense if it were not for the large NYC O&D market.

I read an article, I think on Motley Fool but I could be wrong, that said AA should look at HA after merging with US. They are strong where AA is a smaller player, and they have started some Asian routes.

I think the Big 4 will stay that way, but we will probably see a smaller carrier bought out at some point.
 
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RWA380
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Sun Nov 17, 2013 11:55 am

Quoting flyby519 (Reply 2):
VX IPO in late 2014-2015, within 3 years they will be acquired by B6

Good fleet integration and a complimentary route map, I think the fact B6 has no premium cabin (sans the new JFK-LAX/SFO) flights to compete with AA on, the corporate climates are not the same, and neither is the service level. B6 is good don't get me wrong, VX just exceeds that of B6 at this time, IMHO.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 4):
The idea that AS can now easily merge with DL is off base

100% directly in the opposite direction. You could not be any more correct, there is no chance in happy hee-haw that an AS/DL merger will get through the DOJ, creating an almost complete strangle hold on the west coast.

Quoting AS737MAX (Reply 5):
But the FFer base of Alaskas is too loyal (And I'm one of them) to allow a merger with DL. It just won't happen.
Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 14):
DL would likely lose much of that
Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 14):
Personally, the day DL bought AS, I'd start flying WN and B6 up and down the coast. I suspect many others would do the same.

I'm one of these people you describe. I would fly any airline other than DL, just because I would be resentful of them taking my AS away. I don't care if that sounds selfish or childish, because it is the 100% truth. I can speak for my best friends who travel as well, and they would do the same thing, no carrier can come in and swoop up AS and not expect a mass exodus of loyal AS flyers.

Quoting ripcordd (Reply 22):
AS I see joining OW and dumping DL all together AS & either B6 or HA joining merging

Funny, I always thought AS/HA route map would look really cool. Even a 767 flying ANC-HND, and a 738 HNL-NAN.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 39):
why not fly it? Its not like Delta has to much capacity to OGG/LIH/KOA. They don't fly to them more than what they do because they simply don't have a place to fly it from.

Honestly, EVERY AS flight to the islands I have been on, has been filled to the gills, front and back. I can't see why DL would drop the routes either, other than the mass exodus of loyal AS flyers.
Next Flights: PDX-HNL-OGG-LIH-PDX On AS, WP & HA
 
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par13del
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Sun Nov 17, 2013 12:49 pm

Ok to re-focus my thought process.

The AA/US merger was supported by many on the grounds that without that size, neither would be able to compete with DL and UA.

So using that basis, why would we be talking about any of the LCC, UCC or whatever name we give to non-legacy carriers merging with a legacy carrier? If we need competition and the size of the competitors must be in the range of AA, UA and DL, the only topic of discussion should be all those carriers merging to present a viable competitor?
We have determined that the industry must have carriers of a certain size to be financially viable and provide legitimate competition, unless we just used those words to sell the latest consolidation.

My suggestion is that all the other carriers come together under a new alliance to provide the size needed to compete in the new industry standard. No merger, a metal free alliance, interline within the alliance, a leasing company to purchase a/c from the OEM's in bulk - enough of them use a/c from each OEM to make that financially viable -, IROPS aggreements, etc. etc.

If we look at the traffic that is carried by carriers not named AA, DL or UA, is that sufficient enough to provide a competitor of equivalent size? Based on our theory, as long as they are divided, the big three can do whatever they want, when they want and can choose to ignore or respond to these airlines, which means that they are not an effective competitor. Do we want industry wide competition of route competition?

Will it happen, well if we look at the consolidation taking place among the regional's at the ownership level, it certainely is possible, especially if the current owners and creators of these airlines had a vision to provide a service to the public which was not wrapped up under the name of AA, UA and DL.

Just a thought
 
PHX787
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Sun Nov 17, 2013 2:30 pm

Quoting planespotting (Reply 27):
I think a bankruptcy-based acquisition with an airline that would just shut down completely if it weren't acquired could still happen (F9 I'm looking at you).

They're going to stay with private equity groups ....for a loooooooooooong time. No mergers with airlines that I can see.

Quoting mariner (Reply 32):
Frontier has already been acquired by Indigo Partners (ex-Spirit), in a deal that closes at the end of the month. No bankruptcy proceeding was involved.

Mariner- not judging your F9 expertise, but these people will turn F9 into a profit and sell them off real quickly. I see F9 jumping around many different private equity firms for as long as I can see....I believe my dad is talking with one of those firms who is actually interested in buying it from Indigo but I cannot say anything more (or rather, he can't because of NDAs   ) but they are gonna bounce around a bit.
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mariner
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Sun Nov 17, 2013 5:07 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 45):
Mariner- not judging your F9 expertise, but these people will turn F9 into a profit and sell them off real quickly.

Sure, they will, but not that quickly.

The real money, the big stuff, is selling it to the public, the Initial Public Offering, the IPO. That's when Indigo and Oaktree made their money in Spirit and Soros made his money in JetBlue.

Why should William Franke of Indigo sell Frontier to your dad for 10% profit on his money when he can get 100% or more with the IPO?

mariner

[Edited 2013-11-17 09:33:58]
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DL747400
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Sun Nov 17, 2013 5:37 pm

Quoting srbmod (Reply 40):
Pretty much the entire regional airline industry are owned by a handful of holding companies. Just because things may not be going smoothly at AF/KL doesn't mean that would happen if AS and HA were to be under a similar corporate umbrella.

First, although HA and AS are not what anyone would call global airlines, they are not exactly regional airlines either by most peoples definition.

Second, the vast majority of the regional airline industry relies upon their major airline partners who purchase and market their capacity to perform the sales and corporate functions. The regionals to which you refer don't perform those functions for themselves.

It is very different when you speak of taking two airlines like AS and HA (or AF/KL) and placing them together under one holding company. What benefit is there to having and maintaining two corporate headquarters, duplicated corporate/management/sales/operations staff, separate IT infrastructures, two operating certificates, two web sites, separate identities, different cultures? Under this type of arrangement, no significant benefits will be realized.

Again using AF/KL as an example, they would be a stronger and very different airline in the global marketplace if they had simply done a full blown merger from the beginning. Looking at the AF/KL of today, its as if they've been merely dating since May, 2004.
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yellowtail
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Sun Nov 17, 2013 5:58 pm

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 43):
I'm one of these people you describe. I would fly any airline other than DL, just because I would be resentful of them taking my AS away.

I recall this very same view from some very loyal DEN residents with regards to F9 only a few months ago.

Alas, that view is much different.

Sometimes the grass is not greener on the other side today….but who knows how it grows tomorrow.
When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
 
DL747400
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RE: After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?

Sun Nov 17, 2013 6:08 pm

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 43):
100% directly in the opposite direction. You could not be any more correct, there is no chance in happy hee-haw that an AS/DL merger will get through the DOJ, creating an almost complete strangle hold on the west coast.

Oh, please....... what a ridiculous statement. A combination of DL/AS would not have a "strangle hold" (your term) on the West Coast. So in your world where overly dramatic disinformation is written, I guess UA at SFO and DEN, US at PHX, AA at LAX, and point-to-point WN routes all over the West Coast means absolutely nothing?

A combined DL/AS would not have anything more than a fortress hub at SEA, something which AS already has today. DL brings the added benefits of new international service (much of which SEA would not otherwise enjoy), among other things.
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