kparke777
Topic Author
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American Eagle's Future Plans?

Mon Dec 02, 2013 1:32 am

Thoughts on American Eagle future and aircraft disbursal and procurement?
 
kenanc
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RE: American Eagle's Future Plans?

Mon Dec 02, 2013 5:12 am

I think it is safe to assume a regional aircraft order sometime. Also, there have been talks on the news to cut back on smaller cities. I'm not sure how they will integrate the Express fleet, but we will just have to wait and see. Others have also said that we could see it being dropped altogether due to Air Wisconsin, but no one knows at this point. Would be a shame to see them go if they do.
 
ripcordd
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RE: American Eagle's Future Plans?

Mon Dec 02, 2013 2:34 pm

There is no aircraft order anytime soon. They cost 3x as other feed carriers and AA as already came out and said they will have to bid on flying with others. I see American Eagle turning into American Ground Services and that's it
 
rfields5421
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RE: American Eagle's Future Plans?

Mon Dec 02, 2013 2:46 pm

I've long felt that American is seeking an opportunity to shut down Eagle - since they could find no one willing to buy the airline.

The big reason no one would buy Eagle is AA would not agree to any continuing contract for Eagle to operate as a feeder.

When the bankruptcy and merger are completed - I expect to see notice of contract awards to other regional carriers. And no new aircraft orders for Eagle.

But I could be wrong. I've been wrong before (just ask my first wife for a list)

If Eagle announces an aircraft order in the next six months, it will remain - though likely smaller - for several years.

If Eagle does not announce one - I expect them to be out of the skies within two years.

If shutdown - the most senior pilots and crews will be moved onto the AA rosters, but many folks will just be left on the unemployment lines.
 
Goldenshield
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RE: American Eagle's Future Plans?

Mon Dec 02, 2013 5:49 pm

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 3):
If Eagle announces an aircraft order in the next six months, it will remain - though likely smaller - for several years.

If Eagle does not announce one - I expect them to be out of the skies within two years.

As part of a divestiture, AA will more than likely sign a 2-3 year CPA agreement with Eagle to ensure a "status quo" of sorts so that Eagle can sort out their issues. Anything after that will depend on them winning bids for flying.

Keep in mind that SKYW has 60 E-175 that can be filled short notice, and 100 more longer term.
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heathrow
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RE: American Eagle's Future Plans?

Mon Dec 02, 2013 5:58 pm

I've been asking myself over and over what their plan is, but can't seem to come up with a sensible answer myself.

They are cutting their flights to YOW next month, but keeping their ground crew to handle the 2 or 3 DL flights a day. I really don't understand this move at all, but it must have made sense in someone's mind!

Could be good news for YX!!
 
flyby519
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RE: American Eagle's Future Plans?

Mon Dec 02, 2013 6:54 pm

The US airline industry is producing record profits, and pay raises at the mainline level, all while the regional carriers are taking drastic pay/benefit cuts. It is truly a race to the bottom, and AE has already told management that they won't be taking more concessions. So, sadly, I wouldn't expect much int terms of growth. Like the previous poster said, expect some of the pilots at the top of the seniority list to flow through to AA during the hiring wave, while AE shrinks its fleet accordingly and outsources flying to more 3rd party carriers.
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apodino
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RE: American Eagle's Future Plans?

Tue Dec 03, 2013 12:29 am

A couple of thoughts on this.

First of all, the JI pilots amended a contract when there was no reason to under the guise of new flying and with the hope of flowthrough, even though the amendment was concessionary. Doug offered the MQ pilots a similar deal and they told Doug to pound sand. I just cannot see three wholy owned subsidiaries being retained post merger, and since the plan is to currently retire all the MQ ERJ's, that leaves 47 CRJ-700s at MQ and who knows what else. I would not be surprised to see Doug find a way to transfer all these planes to JI and effectively shut down MQ for good since JI clearly has the lower costs (effectively making MQ the new Comair.)

Taking the MQ ERJ's out of the equation, you are left with the 40 CRJ-200's at JI, 71 at ZW, and the balance of 50 seat lift at OO, EV, and RP about equally. That comes out to about 140 50 seaters or so. I am not sure what AA's target in this category is post merger. However of these contracts, ZW is up in 2015, and despite their strong performance for US in recent years in many categories, the fact remains that they still only fly 50 seaters, and I don't see how 71 planes are retained past 2015 unless the ZW owners are secretly helping bankroll the merger behind the scenes. (which if its true, may not be announced for a while because if it were announced too soon, they would lose big negotiating leverage with ALPA on their contract) The only saving grace that ZW has is the way the World in DCA is configured, where many spots can only handle a CRJ-200, and regional flying is not being cut in DCA since the slots being divested are mainline.

There is an obvious plan for Eagle at DFW, or else there would be no need for the stinger concourse in Terminal B. One airport to keep an eye on post merger is PHX. If mainline service is grown in some airports (noteably ORD), look for 170s to start occupying gate space in PHX, and I think this happens near term in any event in PHX.

Basically going forward I see it as something like this.

MQ - Gone in a couple of years as the next Comair
JI - Soon to take over all of the MQ flying that remains. Look for them to open domiciles in LAX, and DFW in the future.
YV - Status Quo, though I suspect some CRJ-900 flying will be shifted to existing AA hubs of LAX and DFW as well.
ZW - I don't know about them long term, but short term they will be around for a bit. Short term I see them taking over some of the MQ LGA flying since ZW already has a domicile in LGA.
OO - They will grow, and I suspect will gain more EJets going forward.
RW - Given they have a good deal with US already and just signed an AA deal, they are pretty secure. Only thing that could complicate this is if NMB ever releases the Pilots for the 30 day cooling off period. If that happens, there could be a strike.
EV - Really whatever Skywest Inc wants from them. A lot will be determined by the outcome of the ALPA vote.
Piedmont - The wild card. Depends on if AA wants to maintain turboprops going forward. This could actually be a good plane for either DFW or MIA.
 
LAXintl
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RE: American Eagle's Future Plans?

Tue Dec 03, 2013 1:08 am

As part of AMR's BK restructuring they agreed to return 39 ERJ aircraft by the end of this year, while remaining 168 tails are on restructured leases that run through 2017-2020.

Unless MQ gets its house in order and can deliver meaningful cost reductions I don't see new AA flying going its way.

Failure to achieve needed cost reset, MQ will essentially become the incredible shrinking airline the later part of this decade.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
KD5MDK
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RE: American Eagle's Future Plans?

Tue Dec 03, 2013 4:55 am

How many MQ pilots are going to flow through into AA in the next 6 years, and what % of their total is that?
 
thegoldenargosy
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RE: American Eagle's Future Plans?

Tue Dec 03, 2013 8:16 am

Does MQ have a contract for flying for AA? If so, when is it up?
 
kparke777
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RE: American Eagle's Future Plans?

Tue Dec 03, 2013 9:49 am

To all posters. Thank you for your insightful responses. Someone very close to me is hoping to fly 2 - 3 years on the CRJ and with those hours apply the chance to enter the mainline via the flow through program. Looks cloudy to partly cloudy at best and business decisions of this magnitude are hard to predict. Certainly they will need to pay their way and in doing so also turn a profit to have any chance of sticking. Thank you again.
 
Woodreau
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RE: American Eagle's Future Plans?

Tue Dec 03, 2013 1:28 pm

When was your pilot hired at American Eagle?

The pilot recruiters at American Eagle unfortunately sell the flowthrough agreement to entice pilots to come work at Eagle.

In reality, the chances of your pilot (if he or she was hired recently or is looking at applying today) actually taking advantage of the flow through agreement is very slim.

The pilots that are flowing through to AA today have been waiting in excess of 16-20 years for their turn to flow through. They themselves were promised they would be at AA within 2 years 16-20 years ago.

American Eagle is not releasing any more than 20 pilots a month to flow through to AA.

A pilot hired in 2006-2007 can expect to wait an additional 5-6 more years for his or her turn to flow though to American.

a pilot waiting for flowthrough is losing seniority at another major airline like united or delta. For most American Eagle pilots, American will not hire out of seniority - there will be a few exceptions and a few Eagle pilots have been hired by American "off the street" but most Eagle pilots will not be working at American in the near future.

For your pilot, his or her best bet is to work and gain experience and submit applications everywhere including American. And if 10-15 years down the road he or she is still not at a major airline then flow through to American, but I would wager that he or she will be hired by someone else before your pilot will ever take advantage of the flow through agreement.
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Acey559
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RE: American Eagle's Future Plans?

Tue Dec 03, 2013 5:09 pm

Quoting KD5MDK (Reply 9):

The Eagle pilots with AA seniority numbers are all on property at AA now. The first of the 824 flow through pilots will be leaving very soon. I think we have about 2800 to 2900 pilots on property at this moment, though I haven't checked the union seniority list in a while.

Quoting kparke777 (Reply 11):

Two to three years is very unrealistic. I've been here almost three years myself and can't even hold a line yet, so flowing in just a couple years isn't realistic. The best he or she could hope for is getting hired, building time and applying to other airlines like United, Delta, Spirit, etc.
 
Max752
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RE: American Eagle's Future Plans?

Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:00 pm

We could see aircraft such as EMB-170/190s in both US and AAs fleet to be brought into AA service rather than MQ or US Express. This could be the same for CRJ900s. I am not very familiar with the whole American Eagle situation though.
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kparke777
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RE: American Eagle's Future Plans?

Wed Dec 04, 2013 10:00 am

Quoting woodreau (Reply 12):
When was your pilot hired at American Eagle?

During this year.

Although there are many opportunities within the industry, there also seems to be headwinds. Be smart and good luck to all entering this career. I hold nothing but admiration and respect for those that have worked so hard and borrowed so much to receive their wings.

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