A couple of thoughts on this.
First of all, the JI
pilots amended a contract when there was no reason to under the guise of new flying and with the hope of flowthrough, even though the amendment was concessionary. Doug offered the MQ
pilots a similar deal and they told Doug to pound sand. I just cannot see three wholy owned subsidiaries being retained post merger, and since the plan is to currently retire all the MQ
ERJ's, that leaves 47 CRJ-700s at MQ
and who knows what else. I would not be surprised to see Doug find a way to transfer all these planes to JI
and effectively shut down MQ
for good since JI
clearly has the lower costs (effectively making MQ
the new Comair.)
Taking the MQ
ERJ's out of the equation, you are left with the 40 CRJ-200's at JI
, 71 at ZW
, and the balance of 50 seat lift at OO
, and RP
about equally. That comes out to about 140 50 seaters or so. I am not sure what AA
's target in this category is post merger. However of these contracts, ZW
is up in 2015, and despite their strong performance for US in recent years in many categories, the fact remains that they still only fly 50 seaters, and I don't see how 71 planes are retained past 2015 unless the ZW
owners are secretly helping bankroll the merger behind the scenes. (which if its true, may not be announced for a while because if it were announced too soon, they would lose big negotiating leverage with ALPA on their contract) The only saving grace that ZW
has is the way the World in DCA
is configured, where many spots can only handle a CRJ-200, and regional flying is not being cut in DCA
since the slots being divested are mainline.
There is an obvious plan for Eagle at DFW
, or else there would be no need for the stinger concourse in Terminal B. One airport to keep an eye on post merger is PHX
. If mainline service is grown in some airports (noteably ORD
), look for 170s to start occupying gate space in PHX
, and I think this happens near term in any event in PHX
Basically going forward I see it as something like this.
- Gone in a couple of years as the next Comair
- Soon to take over all of the MQ
flying that remains. Look for them to open domiciles in LAX
, and DFW
in the future.
- Status Quo, though I suspect some CRJ-900 flying will be shifted to existing AA
hubs of LAX
- I don't know about them long term, but short term they will be around for a bit. Short term I see them taking over some of the MQ LGA
flying since ZW
already has a domicile in LGA
- They will grow, and I suspect will gain more EJets going forward.
- Given they have a good deal with US already and just signed an AA
deal, they are pretty secure. Only thing that could complicate this is if NMB ever releases the Pilots for the 30 day cooling off period. If that happens, there could be a strike.
- Really whatever Skywest Inc wants from them. A lot will be determined by the outcome of the ALPA vote.
Piedmont - The wild card. Depends on if AA
wants to maintain turboprops going forward. This could actually be a good plane for either DFW