mattnrsa
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AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 7:00 am

With AA-coded flights from SBA to LAX zeroed out after April 1, it looks like these flights will be ending soon. Although this is not major in the big scheme of things, it's interesting to see the US-coded SBA-PHX flight will remain since many here predicted that PHX would be drawn down as LAX is built up.

Is this market an exception or will additional markets lose their LAX link to focus more on PHX and the less-intense competition seen there?
 
RyanairGuru
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 7:45 am

Quoting mattnrsa (Thread starter):
Is this market an exception or will additional markets lose their LAX link to focus more on PHX and the less-intense competition seen there?

I'm not surprised about SBA as the O&D market is inexistant, and if you are going to combine the traffic onto one flight it would make sense to keep the one with some O&D passengers. I wouldn't expect them to start cutting other small West Coast markets, but if they do then that probably suggest that PHX will stick around, at least in the medium term.
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Beardown91737
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 7:53 am

SBA-LAX is under 100 miles, which means it really only exists for connections. Previously, routes like ONT-LAX and SNA-LAX were dropped because the distance wasn't much more than an hour's drive. I am guessing that the same thing is happening here.

On SBA-PHX, there is probably a decent O/D component as well. It probably won't hold up as well as it did when US was feeding the PHX hub to destinations east.

Before this thread is over, I am sure we will hear that The New AA is only holding on to flights at PHX because they were forced to.
135 hrs PIC (mostly PA-28) - not current. Landings at MDW, PIA, JAN.
 
jmc1975
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 8:46 am

This is just the beginning of the transition to the role that LAX will serve as an O&D focus city / international gateway while PHX will play the role of a 300-350 flight/day hub.
.......
 
MAH4546
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 9:24 am

AA is under pretty heavy gate restraints at LAX that will continue through the end of 2015. Serving SBA from PHX only makes perfect sense.

I do not see this as any sign that the PHX hub will grow, nor that the LAX operation will be O&D focused (it's far too big for that).

Again - simple realignment of the network once more. Markets that AA was forced to serve from more inefficient bases to capture the wider markets - SBA, HMO and ART - are going to be focused from PMUS hubs.

We will continue to see this rationalization, including very possibly PHX routes ending to be served only from LAX. Hub closures are a few years off.

[Edited 2014-02-25 01:25:25]
a.
 
MesaFlyGuy
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 12:36 pm

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 4):

Jut to clarify, you're not saying the PMUS bases are less efficient than the PMAA bases, are you?

Quoting jmc1975 (Reply 3):
The views I express are my own and do not reflect the views and opinions of my company.
 
AABB777
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 12:53 pm

Wow, this is surprising to me. Any official confirmation from AA?

I would have thought AA would reduce LAX-SBA capacity a bit before ending the route completely. Seems that every time I fly into LAX on AA there are pax connecting to SBA.

In addition to PHX-SBA might we see Eagle re-start DFW-SBA on CR7?
 
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AVLAirlineFreq
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 1:18 pm

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 4):
Again - simple realignment of the network once more. Markets that AA was forced to serve from more inefficient bases to capture the wider markets - SBA, HMO and ART - are going to be focused from PMUS hubs.

Are there any other West Coast markets served out of LAX and not currently served through PHX where we might see this transition?
 
realsim
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 2:11 pm

Quoting AVLAirlineFreq (Reply 7):
Are there any other West Coast markets served out of LAX and not currently served through PHX where we might see this transition?

West of PHX, only EUG and RDM are served from LAX and not from PHX, and they are LAX orientated. With SBA gone, all the routes flown from LAX are now at least 210 mi long.
 
AWACSooner
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 2:45 pm

Quoting Beardown91737 (Reply 2):
Previously, routes like ONT-LAX and SNA-LAX were dropped because the distance wasn't much more than an hour's drive.

I would have LOVED to book a ONT-LAX-SNA r/t on UA when they still had it...all for a whopping 30 mile drive.
 
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enilria
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 3:10 pm

Under the AZ AG agreement, AA/US isn't really forced to do anything. I think this is a one-off move and signals nothing. Also, PHX isn't closing next week. I'd guess they won't do anything big for a year.
 
CIDFlyer
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 3:19 pm

too bad, I flew the SBA-LAX leg once and it was a beautiful flight over the the coast and mountains
 
LAXintl
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 3:45 pm

Is this not old news, was first reported back in December, but AA first denied it.

http://www.insidesocal.com/aviation/...s-despite-report-saying-otherwise/

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 4):
AA is under pretty heavy gate restraints at LAX that will continue through the end of 2015. Serving SBA from PHX only makes perfect sense.

RJ's park at the AE box terminal. Not effected by work around T-4.
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a380787
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 4:20 pm

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 4):
AA is under pretty heavy gate restraints at LAX that will continue through the end of 2015. Serving SBA from PHX only makes perfect sense.

Except that LAX provides lots of unique options, primarily long-haul and premium, that simply don't exist at PHX

SBA-LAX-MEL becomes SBA-PHX-LAX-MEL ? or worse ... expect the pax to drive the 100 miles down to LAX ?

same thing with premium transcon .... taking SBA-PHX-JFK versus SBA-LAX-JFK is quite a downgrade for the premium pax (considering SBA is a rich enclave)
 
Dreamflight767
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 4:56 pm

Quoting AWACSooner (Reply 9):
I would have LOVED to book a ONT-LAX-SNA r/t on UA when they still had it...all for a whopping 30 mile drive.

Yeah, but what seems a 4 hour drive because of traffic.
 
civetfive
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 5:01 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 13):

I don't disagree, but AA is sitting on all of the data in the world, so this tells me that SBA isn't driving premium sales the way we think it is to some of these destinations.
 
oc2dc
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 6:16 pm

Quoting realsim (Reply 8):
With SBA gone, all the routes flown from LAX are now at least 210 mi long.

Negative. LAX-SAN is about 120 miles and is flown by AA/AE about 8x daily.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 13):
SBA-LAX-MEL becomes SBA-PHX-LAX-MEL ? or worse ... expect the pax to drive the 100 miles down to LAX ?

same thing with premium transcon .... taking SBA-PHX-JFK versus SBA-LAX-JFK is quite a downgrade for the premium pax (considering SBA is a rich enclave)

This is my first thought. . .I would have thought it would have been worth it to keep premium traffic connections. Maybe the idea of premium traffic on this route is exaggerated.
I'm not complaining, I'm critiquing...
 
a380787
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 6:30 pm

Quoting civetfive (Reply 15):
I don't disagree, but AA is sitting on all of the data in the world, so this tells me that SBA isn't driving premium sales the way we think it is to some of these destinations.

So does UA .... but UA thinks it's crucial enough to have service to SFO, LAX, and DEN (albeit, all UAX)
 
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psa1011
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 6:38 pm

So if someone wants to travel SBA-SFO/PacNW/Hawaii/NRT/PVG, I imagine they'd switch to UA for air travel. I'm not clear, then, on why anyone @ SBA would still be loyal to the new AA.
 
realsim
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 6:47 pm

Quoting oc2dc (Reply 16):
Negative. LAX-SAN is about 120 miles and is flown by AA/AE about 8x daily.

Sorry, I forgot to add the "except SAN" tag. By the way, it is worth mentioning that LAX-SAN was not so long ago flown something like 12 daily.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 17):
So does UA .... but UA thinks it's crucial enough to have service to SFO, LAX, and DEN (albeit, all UAX)

I'm sure that AA knows exacty how many passengers are flying TPAC via LAX ex SBA (the only ones that will not be able to connect via PHX), and also how many are flying FC from SBA to JFK via LAX, and if they are axiing the route it is because the loss it is making doesn't justify keeping it for those -I assume- very few passengers.

[Edited 2014-02-25 10:48:29]
 
diverdave
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 6:58 pm

Quoting realsim (Reply 19):
I'm sure that AA knows exacty how many passengers are flying TPAC via LAX ex SBA (the only ones that will not be able to connect via PHX), and also how many are flying FC from SBA to JFK via LAX, and if they are axiing the route it is because the loss it is making doesn't justify keeping it for those -I assume- very few passengers.

Back in the day of the Saabs, this was a route with pretty high frequency of service. The frequency went down when service transitioned to the Embraers, and seems to have been further reduced with the introduction of the CRJ 50 seat service.

David
 
jmc1975
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 6:59 pm

Quoting realsim (Reply 19):

I'm sure that AA knows exacty how many passengers are flying TPAC flying via LAX ex SBA (the only ones that will not be able to connect via PHX), and also how many are flying FC from SBA to JFK via LAX, and if they are axiing the route it is because the loss it is making doesn't justify keeping it for those -I assume- very few passengers.

  
It's not likely you would see many celebrities/ultra-wealthy hop onboard an Eagle flight, then be bussed across the LAX tarmac (where there's sometimes standing room only) to make their JFK/International connection. They are either driven by limo/personal town car/black Escalade to LAX or they take their own private jet.
.......
 
AABB777
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 7:10 pm

Quoting psa1011 (Reply 18):
So if someone wants to travel SBA-SFO/PacNW/Hawaii/NRT/PVG, I imagine they'd switch to UA for air travel. I'm not clear, then, on why anyone @ SBA would still be loyal to the new AA.

I agree - I know several folks who travel in revenue First/Business class on AA JFK-LAX-SBA every few weeks. This will certainly affect their travel buying decisions. Flying via PHX on US is certainly a product downgrade for a premium customer. However, AA has the data to support the ending of LAX-SBA, but I am still surprised.
 
oc2dc
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 9:01 pm

Quoting realsim (Reply 19):
Sorry, I forgot to add the "except SAN" tag. By the way, it is worth mentioning that LAX-SAN was not so long ago flown something like 12 daily.

It is important to note there has been a lot of upgauging on the route. A few years ago, the route was exclusively ERJ-140's. Now it is a mix of about half CRJ2's and CRJ7's. Over all, seat capacity is about the same.
I'm not complaining, I'm critiquing...
 
EricR
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 9:17 pm

Quoting realsim (Reply 8):
West of PHX, only EUG and RDM are served from LAX and not from PHX, and they are LAX orientated.

FWIW, there are a few more served by Horizon via AS code share such as MFR, STS, MMH.

Quoting jmc1975 (Reply 3):
while PHX will play the role of a 300-350 flight/day hub.

Based on the current schedule, this means a buildup of about 50 flights daily. Where do you think they are going to add frequencies / routes that are not already served?

Quoting AABB777 (Reply 22):
Flying via PHX on US is certainly a product downgrade for a premium customer. However, AA has the data to support the ending of LAX-SBA, but I am still surprised.

How is this a product downgrade? The onboard service on US will be in alignment with AA's on April 1st (I believe this is the target date). In addition, there are more domestic connection options out of PHX than LAX. The only big downside of this move is the loss of connectioms to international flights out of LAX. It is apparent that SBA pax bound for destinations along the west coast were taking other carriers anyways.
 
MAH4546
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 9:21 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 13):
SBA-LAX-MEL becomes SBA-PHX-LAX-MEL ? or worse ... expect the pax to drive the 100 miles down to LAX ?

Nobody has to drive. Shuttle busses run between Santa Barbara and LAX even more frequently than airplanes do, and it's probably quicker and cheaper.
a.
 
a380787
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 9:25 pm

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 25):
Nobody has to drive. Shuttle busses run between Santa Barbara and LAX even more frequently than airplanes do, and it's probably quicker and cheaper.

Yes, that's the perfect solution for the rich retirees at SBA
 
whatusaid
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 9:28 pm

SBA-LAX-ORD is bookable in May and June... Has AA officially said anything about pulling the route down?
 
AABB777
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 9:36 pm

Quoting EricR (Reply 24):
Quoting AABB777 (Reply 22):
Flying via PHX on US is certainly a product downgrade for a premium customer. However, AA has the data to support the ending of LAX-SBA, but I am still surprised.

How is this a product downgrade? The onboard service on US will be in alignment with AA's on April 1st (I believe this is the target date). In addition, there are more domestic connection options out of PHX than LAX. The only big downside of this move is the loss of connectioms to international flights out of LAX. It is apparent that SBA pax bound for destinations along the west coast were taking other carriers anyways.

Regardless of the US product alignment, it's a downgrade for an AA premium pax who today travels on the A321T JFK-LAX and now, with the AA LAX-SBA cancellation, will have to transit through PHX to SBA on US. In addition to the AA 321T, the AA hard product on the 737 is superior to what US offers on their fleet.

I still think something is going on here with LAX-SBA, especially if - as somebody above claims - SBA is still bookable via LAX on AA in May.
 
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psa1011
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 9:43 pm

I think it may be that UA already owns the market. If looking at frequency alone, UA runs 7x daily, while AA is 4x. People may already be used to using UA to SFO, PS to JFK, etc. Perhaps this is also why AA cut LAX-CLD years ago...
 
jmc1975
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 9:50 pm

Quoting EricR (Reply 24):
Based on the current schedule, this means a buildup of about 50 flights daily. Where do you think they are going to add frequencies / routes that are not already served?

Increased buildup by recapturing some local O&D traffic from WN to such markets as LAX,SNA,SAN,ABQ,ELP.

New/resumed service largely driven by strengthened FF bases in the given O&Ds to markets such as MAF,LBB,AMA,ROW,SAF(replacing LAX),COS,MTJ,EGE,RDM,EUG; even the possibility of OKC,TUL,ICT,BNA,RDU in the longer-term. PHX will be a strategic hub that allows AA to further connect the dots that helps give it the strengthened network it needs in the West.

[Edited 2014-02-25 13:56:52]
.......
 
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Tomassjc
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 9:54 pm

Quoting psa1011 (Reply 29):
I think it may be that UA already owns the market

UA has owned SBA since the 50s!
When once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the Earth with your eyes turned skyward -Leonardo DaVinci
 
MIflyer12
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 10:06 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 26):
Yes, that's the perfect solution for the rich retirees at SBA

What solutions do you propose, if not market based? If there are enough retirees in SBA with a propensity to spend money on air travel, resources will be allocated to serve them.
 
N1120A
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 10:11 pm

Quoting Beardown91737 (Reply 2):
SBA-LAX is under 100 miles, which means it really only exists for connections.

Not really. SBA-LAX is a 2 hour drive, in the best possible traffic conditions, and those rarely exist.

Quoting Beardown91737 (Reply 2):
Previously, routes like ONT-LAX and SNA-LAX were dropped because the distance wasn't much more than an hour's drive. I am guessing that the same thing is happening here.

ONT-LAX and SNA-LAX are less than half the distance to drive and better connected by transport options.

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 25):
Shuttle busses run between Santa Barbara and LAX even more frequently than airplanes do, and it's probably quicker and cheaper.

Its not quicker and not necessarily cheaper, though price sensitivity isn't exactly an issue in Santa Barbara, except for the UCSB students who are already taking the shuttle or the train anyway. In fact, the airporter buses often route with stops in Southern Santa Barbara County and Ventura County.
Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
 
MAH4546
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 10:24 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 26):
Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 25):Nobody has to drive. Shuttle busses run between Santa Barbara and LAX even more frequently than airplanes do, and it's probably quicker and cheaper.
Yes, that's the perfect solution for the rich retirees at SBA

You mean the ones already taking limo services to LAX anyway?
a.
 
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psa1011
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 10:26 pm

Quoting Tomassjc (Reply 31):
UA has owned SBA since the 50s!

Interesting. Looking at the UA schedules at SBA it definitely looks that way.

7x LAX
9x SFO
2x DEN

For a total of 18x, vs. a total of 4x on AA (and until a year or two ago, UA was even serving SJC-SBA). I can understand why UA would have already been the airline of choice.
 
a380787
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 10:27 pm

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 32):

What solutions do you propose, if not market based? If there are enough retirees in SBA with a propensity to spend money on air travel, resources will be allocated to serve them.

Learn how to capture the market properly ... the market definitely exists (UA flies to 3 hubs from SBA), but AA is failing to capture their fair share

Same issue with ORD-NRT ... UA capturing well and upsizing to 744 .... AA not capturing well and go 5x weekly.

But in all fairness .... UA has those tiny E120 to fly the route (it's shocking that UA has 10x daily SBA-SFO)
 
N1120A
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 10:36 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 36):
But in all fairness .... UA has those tiny E120 to fly the route (it's shocking that UA has 10x daily SBA-SFO)

Nothing shocking about it. The E120 is perfect for most of the day.

Quoting psa1011 (Reply 35):
(and until a year or two ago, UA was even serving SJC-SBA).

SJC-SBA was an at-risk route for OO and mainly existed to serve those Silicon Valley types that had enough money to commute/have a second home in Santa Barbara, but not so much that they had private planes. Since it didn't have connectivity, UA wasn't about to make it FPD and I think OO had other things to do with their (sadly) dwindling Brasilia fleet.
Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
 
MAH4546
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 10:53 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 36):
Same issue with ORD-NRT ... UA capturing well and upsizing to 744 .... AA not capturing well and go 5x weekly.

AA operates the route 12x weekly under JBA with JAL, just as UA actually has 21x weekly under JBA with ANA.
a.
 
N1120A
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 11:18 pm

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 34):
You mean the ones already taking limo services to LAX anyway?

The ones buying plane tickets.
Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
 
MAH4546
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 11:21 pm

Quoting N1120A (Reply 39):
Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 34):You mean the ones already taking limo services to LAX anyway?
The ones buying plane tickets.

Which clearly isn't sufficient right now on AA to support the service, if it is indeed ending (It's still in GDS).

I don't see why people are shocked to see such a short route end. All the majors have been killing these routes over the past decade. I'm surprised it's still around on any airline.
a.
 
N1120A
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 11:31 pm

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 40):
Which clearly isn't sufficient right now on AA to support the service, if it is indeed ending (It's still in GDS).

Well, AA uses a ridiculously inefficient aircraft to handle the route.

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 40):
I don't see why people are shocked to see such a short route end. All the majors have been killing these routes over the past decade. I'm surprised it's still around on any airline.

LAX-SAN sticks around, and is basically the same length - only with better transport connections and better service to the smaller airport. Also, SBA is a very high income area, as well as one with few transport options.
Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
 
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psa1011
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 11:40 pm

Quoting N1120A (Reply 41):
LAX-SAN sticks around, and is basically the same length - only with better transport connections and better service to the smaller airport. Also, SBA is a very high income area, as well as one with few transport options.

I think the SAN case is different, since traffic between LA County and SD County can turn a 2hr trip into a 5hr trip. Amtrak is the only public transport, and even that only goes to downtown LA, not LAX (and takes 2h45min). No airport buses run between the two places, since I think most realize that San Diegans are more than well aware of the traffic risks on the 5 and 405.

Santa Barbara, on the other hand, might be slightly closer to LAX, and while the 101 might get terrible, I doubt it ever gets as bad as 5/405 to SD. Additionally, I think Santa Barabarans are historically more used to going to LA, and vice a versa.

And per my previous posts, this in combination with UA dominance means that AA found the SBA route not worth it, I think.
 
realsim
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 11:41 pm

Quoting Tomassjc (Reply 31):
UA has owned SBA since the 50s!

 

I don't disagree that UA is the largest and predominant carrier at SBA, but looking at the last annual statistics provided by SBA Airport, their market share was 44%. AA had a 16% and US a 21%, so the combined market share would be close to 40%.

http://www.flysba.com/userfiles/file/PDFs/2012_01_18_Passenger_Count_-_December_-_2011.pdf

And if we look at the DOT data for the latest American Eagle records before Skywest replaced them as AE, AA had a 50% market share for the LAX-SBA route.

[Edited 2014-02-25 15:52:18]
 
777STL
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Tue Feb 25, 2014 11:57 pm

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 4):
We will continue to see this rationalization, including very possibly PHX routes ending to be served only from LAX. Hub closures are a few years off.

AA has promised state leaders three years of grace before any significant cuts take place at PHX. Figure Q1 2017 is when you might see the first major changes.

Quoting jmc1975 (Reply 3):
This is just the beginning of the transition to the role that LAX will serve as an O&D focus city / international gateway while PHX will play the role of a 300-350 flight/day hub.

I'm not quite that optimistic. PHX won't play second fiddle to LAX at anything. Not transpac, not internationally, not to Hawaii, not to Europe, not to Oceana, not even domestically......nowhere.
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Beardown91737
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Wed Feb 26, 2014 8:09 am

Quoting AABB777 (Reply 28):
Regardless of the US product alignment, it's a downgrade for an AA premium pax who today travels on the A321T JFK-LAX and now, with the AA LAX-SBA cancellation, will have to transit through PHX to SBA on US. In addition to the AA 321T, the AA hard product on the 737 is superior to what US offers on their fleet.

How much exposure have PMAA fliers from SBA had to 737s? How much could they know about the recently delivered A321s?

Quoting jmc1975 (Reply 30):
New/resumed service largely driven by strengthened FF bases in the given O&Ds to markets such as MAF,LBB,AMA,ROW,SAF(replacing LAX),COS,MTJ,EGE,RDM,EUG; even the possibility of OKC,TUL,ICT,BNA,RDU in the longer-term. PHX will be a strategic hub that allows AA to further connect the dots that helps give it the strengthened network it needs in the West.

They will need to do something to replace the UA codeshares to places like EUG, MFR, COS, etc.

Quoting N1120A (Reply 33):
ONT-LAX and SNA-LAX are less than half the distance to drive and better connected by transport options.

I live 6 miles north of ONT. I am not familiar with the transport options, unless it is a 2 hour van ride or a commuter train followed by two light rail rides. Personally I would rather sit in DEN, SFO, PHX, or LAS than go two hours in the wrong direction in a van just to get a non-stop. Also, it makes sense that there is O/D traffic on SBA-PHX. This is the part of route rationalization where The New Management keeps productive routes and cuts ones that aren't.

Quoting realsim (Reply 43):
AA had a 16% and US a 21%, so the combined market share would be close to 40%.

It would only be close to 40% if you keep the PMUS traffic to PHX, which still had a higher market share than the PMAA traffic. Some of that traffic could defect to UA with US leaving Star and the UA codeshare.
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Tomassjc
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:05 pm

Quoting realsim (Reply 43):
I don't disagree that UA is the largest and predominant carrier at SBA, but looking at the last annual statistics provided by SBA Airport, their market share was 44%. AA had a 16% and US a 21%, so the combined market share would be close to 40%.

I wasn't speaking so much in terms of market share, but the fact that UA has served SBA since the mid 1930s.

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AABB777
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Wed Feb 26, 2014 9:02 pm

Quoting Beardown91737 (Reply 45):

How much exposure have PMAA fliers from SBA had to 737s? How much could they know about the recently delivered A321s?

PMAA fliers know a lot about the 737, as it's the workhorse for a lot of LAX flying. This is true primarily for premium and frequent business travelers who can differentiate between S80/737 equipment.

Regarding the new A321T product, AA has been promoting this a lot to their FFs. Regardless of the 321T, premium customers on JFK-LAX are used to three-class widebody service. Flying PMUS through PHX to SBA is indeed a product downgrade. I also don't know many premium pax who will want to make the trek to LAX for international flights (which would be a double connect through PHX) and deal with traffic/parking/car rentals, etc. Is a Business Class flier based in SBA now supposed to drive to LAX for their CX flight to HKG?
 
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WALmsp
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Wed Feb 26, 2014 10:28 pm

The curious part for me is that flights are scheduled to be discontinued April 1, but my ticketed flight from SBA to LAS via LAX in June is still showing on the AA website. I have not received any email stipulating changes in my itinerary.   
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Raventech
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RE: AA Ending SBA-LAX, Keeping SBA-PHX?

Wed Feb 26, 2014 11:12 pm

Quoting AABB777 (Reply 47):
Flying PMUS through PHX to SBA is indeed a product downgrade. I also don't know many premium pax who will want to make the trek to LAX for international flights (which would be a double connect through PHX) and deal with traffic/parking/car rentals, etc. Is a Business Class flier based in SBA now supposed to drive to LAX for their CX flight to HKG?

But how many passengers actually connect internationally or are going to JFK, if its very little then their passengers are going to be equally served by a PHX connection as a LAX connection. True that you scenario is a potential problem but if a grand total of 5 people actually go to an international flight per year from SBA, then I highly doubt their revenue covers the loss every other time. Same with JFK, if there actually is a lot of traffic between the two then they would be dumb to cut it but I doubt that is the case.