Gonzalo
Topic Author
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US-Chile Visa Waiver Program: Effects For LAN?

Fri Feb 28, 2014 12:59 pm

Yesterday the Chilean TV news informed that within days will be in effect the Visa Waiver program that allow Chilean citizens to travel to the US without doing the usually long and expensive work to get a visa. I know several cases of friends that avoided US in their hollidays precisely for the long process of getting visas ( for them and / or other members of the family, even childrens ). So, would this program have some positive effects on the LAN traffic to US destinations? Any experience from other countries ( and the airlines involved ) that changed from requiring visa to VWProgram ?

Thanks in advance.

Rgds.
G.
Gear Up!!: DC-3 / EMB-110 / Fairchild-227 / Ab318-19-20-21 / B732 / B763 / B789
 
Cubsrule
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RE: US-Chile Visa Waiver Program: Effects For LAN?

Fri Feb 28, 2014 1:09 pm

Will it result in the end of the reciprocity fee for US citizens? I just renewed my passport and thus lost my ability to travel to Chile for free (the reciprocity fee expires with the passport). If the reciprocity fee goes away, maybe that helps southbound traffic a bit.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
timpdx
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RE: US-Chile Visa Waiver Program: Effects For LAN?

Fri Feb 28, 2014 1:43 pm

I hope this means a quick end to reciprosity. I'm going to Santiago at the end of March.
 
copter808
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RE: US-Chile Visa Waiver Program: Effects For LAN?

Fri Feb 28, 2014 2:42 pm

Quoting Gonzalo (Thread starter):
I know several cases of friends that avoided US in their hollidays precisely for the long process of getting visas ( for them and / or other members of the family, even childrens )

How long before our people in Washington realize the negative effect of our visa fees? And that most other countries base their fee on ours for US passport holders.
 
airDFW
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RE: US-Chile Visa Waiver Program: Effects For LAN?

Fri Feb 28, 2014 3:24 pm

Quoting copter808 (Reply 3):
How long before our people in Washington realize the negative effect of our visa fees? And that most other countries base their fee on ours for US passport holders.

It is actually the other way round, US bases its fees on other countries fees.

I hope Chile gives visa free access for US Permanent residents as well, like Mexico or Canada does.
 
a380787
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RE: US-Chile Visa Waiver Program: Effects For LAN?

Fri Feb 28, 2014 3:35 pm

Quoting copter808 (Reply 3):

How long before our people in Washington realize the negative effect of our visa fees? And that most other countries base their fee on ours for US passport holders.

If the fraud/rejection rate is too high, the US simply can't give visa-free

HKSAR is one example - US passport visit HKG visa free, but not vice versa

The fee collection is minor ... it's a process to background check against fraudsters and other people with questionable backgrounds/motives
 
RCS763AV
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RE: US-Chile Visa Waiver Program: Effects For LAN?

Fri Feb 28, 2014 4:15 pm

Since there will probably be a surge in demand, I can imagine flights such as SCL-LAX will become year round and an increase in flights to MIA and JFK could be possible.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 5):
The fee collection is minor ... it's a process to background check against fraudsters and other people with questionable backgrounds/motives

The fee collection is minimal? A middle-class family from the developing world, with say an annual income of $25.000 USD, has to spend $190 USD per person to apply. If it's 4 people, that's $760 USD, just to be able to apply for the visa, it isn't refundable if you don't get it. Not only that, but you have to have a certain amount of money on your bank account which means there has to be significant planning ahead and saving in order to accomplish this.

Just to be able to travel. It's ridiculous.
 
eastern023
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RE: US-Chile Visa Waiver Program: Effects For LAN?

Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:02 pm

Quoting AirDFW (Reply 4):
I hope Chile gives visa free access for US Permanent residents as well, like Mexico or Canada does.

I doubt that is going to happen. That would add another layer of screening to the already swamped PDI (Chilean CBP) inspectors. Besides, unless you are a US Permanent Resident with a passport from Australia, Canada, Mexico or Albania (I know of all places..) you don't have to pay the retaliation fee...

Each time I land at SCL the lines are out the door... (which is always in the early morning with all the rest of the USA and European flights arriving... I hope they do , we are going to Chile in Nov and I have a newborn that will otherwise have t pay. All the rest of the family already paid...oh well...

[Edited 2014-02-28 09:07:15]
AA will Rise Again!
 
Tdan
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RE: US-Chile Visa Waiver Program: Effects For LAN?

Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:06 pm

If this occurs, UA needs to announce IAH-SCL asap. The flight would already work today, but with the surge in travel that always occurs when VW is granted, it would be inane not to start service.
We will ride this thunderbird, silver shadows on the earth, a thousand leagues away our land of birth... -Captain Bruce
 
eastern023
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RE: US-Chile Visa Waiver Program: Effects For LAN?

Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:19 pm

Quoting Tdan (Reply 8):
If this occurs, UA needs to announce IAH-SCL asap. The flight would already work today, but with the surge in travel that always occurs when VW is granted, it would be inane not to start service.

Yes I agree. Maybe AA should have DFW-SCL and MIA-SCL 772 year round. (Right now DFW-SCL is 772 seasonal)
AA will Rise Again!
 
copter808
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RE: US-Chile Visa Waiver Program: Effects For LAN?

Fri Feb 28, 2014 6:03 pm

Quoting AirDFW (Reply 4):
It is actually the other way round, US bases its fees on other countries fees.

Not from what I have seen! Our fees are $160 now, even for countries that charge us far less. The taxes collected from increased tourism would likely far exceed the $160. But it's difficult to quantify, because these (those who would have come if not for the $160 fee) will spend their money elsewhere!

Quoting RCS763AV (Reply 6):
The fee collection is minimal? A middle-class family from the developing world, with say an annual income of $25.000 USD, has to spend $190 USD per person to apply. If it's 4 people, that's $760 USD, just to be able to apply for the visa, it isn't refundable if you don't get it. Not only that, but you have to have a certain amount of money on your bank account which means there has to be significant planning ahead and saving in order to accomplish this.

Exactly, so they go somewhere else and continue believing Americans are what they see on old movies and in the newspapers. Hmmm, wonder why so many dislike Americans?

Quoting a380787 (Reply 5):
If the fraud/rejection rate is too high, the US simply can't give visa-free

Another sore point with me! What the hell does the rejection rate mean? Does it mean interviewers who want to keep their jobs reject enough applications assure their jobs are secure? I don't know that this happens, but it should not even give the appearance of being that way. There was a bill in the House and Senate a while back to change it from "refusal" rate to "overstay" rate. Now THIS means something! Refusal rate tells me NOTHING!!!
A friend of mine went through the circus of an interview in Bangkok. It wasn't an interview, it was an interrogation! The intervierwe never even bothered to look at some of the documentation which would have clearly explained things. And there is NO APPEAL for refused visas. These relatively low level embassy employees have more power than anyone except Supreme Court Justices. What was accomplished with the BKK interview? They changed someone who wanted to visit the US into someone who no longer has ANY desire to come to the US! Again, wonder why we are so unpopular...
 
GSPSPOT
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RE: US-Chile Visa Waiver Program: Effects For LAN?

Fri Feb 28, 2014 6:09 pm

Quoting RCS763AV (Reply 6):
Since there will probably be a surge in demand, I can imagine flights such as SCL-LAX will become year round and an increase in flights to MIA and JFK could be possible.

Perhaps we'll finally see LAN flights to the OneWorld mega-hub at DFW??

[Edited 2014-02-28 10:09:20]
Finally made it to an airline mecca!
 
a380787
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RE: US-Chile Visa Waiver Program: Effects For LAN?

Fri Feb 28, 2014 6:35 pm

Quoting copter808 (Reply 10):
Another sore point with me! What the hell does the rejection rate mean? Does it mean interviewers who want to keep their jobs reject enough applications assure their jobs are secure? I don't know that this happens, but it should not even give the appearance of being that way. There was a bill in the House and Senate a while back to change it from "refusal" rate to "overstay" rate. Now THIS means something! Refusal rate tells me NOTHING!!!
A friend of mine went through the circus of an interview in Bangkok. It wasn't an interview, it was an interrogation! The intervierwe never even bothered to look at some of the documentation which would have clearly explained things. And there is NO APPEAL for refused visas. These relatively low level embassy employees have more power than anyone except Supreme Court Justices. What was accomplished with the BKK interview? They changed someone who wanted to visit the US into someone who no longer has ANY desire to come to the US! Again, wonder why we are so unpopular...

Do you know how many people from developing or third world countries attempt to sneak into developed countries and overstay as illegal immigrant ?
 
EddieDude
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RE: US-Chile Visa Waiver Program: Effects For LAN?

Fri Feb 28, 2014 6:52 pm

Maybe LA will feel tempted to take a 77W from sister JJ and fly SCL-MIA with the 77W?

How about the effects on other carriers? Maybe we will see UA return to SCL from IAH or IAD? Smells like a 787-8 route.
Next flights: MEX-LAX AM 738, LAX-PVG DL 77L, SHA-PEK CA 789, PEK-PVG CA A332, PVG-ORD MU 77W, ORD-MEX AM 738
 
eastern023
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RE: US-Chile Visa Waiver Program: Effects For LAN?

Fri Feb 28, 2014 7:53 pm

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 13):
How about the effects on other carriers? Maybe we will see UA return to SCL from IAH or IAD? Smells like a 787-8 route.

Hi EddieDude!...IAD please!!!
AA will Rise Again!
 
Gonzalo
Topic Author
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RE: US-Chile Visa Waiver Program: Effects For LAN?

Fri Feb 28, 2014 8:43 pm

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 13):
Maybe we will see UA return to SCL from IAH or IAD? Smells like a 787-8 route.

That would be sweet !! SCL spotters could have a contest about who get a pic with a KLM ( recently returned to SCL after years ) and a UA 788 first !!

Rgds.
G.-
Gear Up!!: DC-3 / EMB-110 / Fairchild-227 / Ab318-19-20-21 / B732 / B763 / B789
 
LAXintl
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RE: US-Chile Visa Waiver Program: Effects For LAN?

Fri Feb 28, 2014 9:49 pm

There wont be a surge.

First Chile-USA is a rather small market. Only about 100,000 visitors annually, about half what Argentina produces, and fraction of what markets like Central America or place like Colombia generates to the US.

As far as market stimulation without visa for example Taiwan and Korea only grew about 10%, and likely half of that was growth that was going to occur anyhow.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
LAXdude1023
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RE: US-Chile Visa Waiver Program: Effects For LAN?

Fri Feb 28, 2014 9:56 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 16):
There wont be a surge.

^^^^This.

Another thing people forget is that, especially outside the Northern winter, flights to SCL live and die by cargo. I know for a fact that the DFW-SCL and ATL-SCL flights make their money on cargo and not passengers. If UA decides to do IAH-SCL, it will have to be based on cargo contracts because it wont make a dime otherwise.

The only exceptions to this rule are really NYC, MIA, and to a MUCH lesser degree LAX.
It is what it is...
 
copter808
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RE: US-Chile Visa Waiver Program: Effects For LAN?

Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:01 am

Quoting a380787 (Reply 12):
Do you know how many people from developing or third world countries attempt to sneak into developed countries and overstay as illegal immigrant ?

No, because we deny the visas in the first place. Now if we started using the overstay rate determine visa waiver status, we would have some useful information. Besides, most or all of those countries you have in mind would exceed the 3% overstay rate and still require visas. Have you ever had the opportunity to deal with our Department of State in trying to get a tourist visa for someone?
 
NickLAX
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RE: US-Chile Visa Waiver Program: Effects For LAN?

Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:58 am

This isn't "Visa Free" fully... It's ETA/ESTA; you have to register online and pay the minimal processing fee.

ESTA allows CBP/DHS to vet if someone is likely allowed to enter the US. Those on prior overstays or removals before are denied ESTA approval and MUST get a regular paper visa. ESTA is used for pre- boarding validation so the airlines you fly to the US can't even board you without ESTA approval if from a Visa Waiver country or a valid paper visa if not a US/Canadian citizen/permanent resident. CBP still has full rights to deny someone approved on ESTA (e.g. length trip with limited funds/no family/etc - likelyhood to overstay)

Visa Waiver ABSOLUTELY takes into account overstay percentages... who is saying it doesn't
 
LAXintl
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RE: US-Chile Visa Waiver Program: Effects For LAN?

Sat Mar 01, 2014 1:33 am

VWP Qualifications are:


(A) Low nonimmigrant visa refusal rate
Either—
(i) the average number of refusals of nonimmigrant visitor visas for nationals of that country during—
(I) the two previous full fiscal years was less than 2.0 percent of the total number of nonimmigrant visitor visas for nationals of that country which were granted or refused during those years; and
(II) either of such two previous full fiscal years was less than 2.5 percent of the total number of nonimmigrant visitor visas for nationals of that country which were granted or refused during that year; or
(ii) such refusal rate for nationals of that country during the previous full fiscal year was less than 3.0 percent.

(B) Machine readable biometric passport program
(i) In general Subject to clause (ii), the government of the country certifies that it issues to its citizens machine-readable biometric passports that satisfy the internationally accepted standards.

(C) Law enforcement and security interests
The Attorney General, in consultation with the Secretary of State—
(i) evaluates the effect that the country’s designation would have on the law enforcement and security interests of the United States (including the interest in enforcement of the immigration laws of the United States and the existence and effectiveness of its agreements and procedures for extraditing to the United States individuals, including its own nationals, who commit crimes that violate United States law);
(ii) determines that such interests would not be compromised by the designation of the country; and
(iii) submits a written report to the Committee on the Judiciary and the Committee on International Relations of the House of Representatives and the Committee on the Judiciary and the Committee on Foreign Relations of the Senate regarding the country’s qualification for designation that includes an explanation of such determination.

In determining, the Secretary of Homeland Security, in consultation with the Secretary of State, shall take into consideration other factors affecting the security of the United States, including—
(A) airport security standards in the country;
(B) whether the country assists in the operation of an effective air marshal program;
(C) the standards of passports and travel documents issued by the country; and
(D) other security-related factors, including the country’s cooperation with the United States’ initiatives toward combating terrorism and the country’s cooperation with the United States intelligence community in sharing information regarding terrorist threats.

(D) Reporting lost and stolen passports
The government of the country enters into an agreement with the United States to report, or make available through Interpol or other means as designated by the Secretary of Homeland Security, to the United States Government information about the theft or loss of passports within a strict time limit and in a manner specified in the agreement.

(E) Repatriation of aliens
The government of the country accepts for repatriation any citizen, former citizen, or national of the country against whom a final executable order of removal is issued not later than three weeks after the issuance of the final order of removal.

(F) Passenger information exchange
The government of the country enters into an agreement with the United States to share information regarding whether citizens and nationals of that country traveling to the United States represent a threat to the security or welfare of the United States or its citizens.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
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JetBuddy
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RE: US-Chile Visa Waiver Program: Effects For LAN?

Sat Mar 01, 2014 2:23 am

Quoting NickLAX (Reply 19):
This isn't "Visa Free" fully... It's ETA/ESTA; you have to register online and pay the minimal processing fee.

Yep.. it's 14 dollars. At least it was last time I paid it. But I think that's a fair rate, should cover the paper work.
 
airDFW
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RE: US-Chile Visa Waiver Program: Effects For LAN?

Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:00 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 1):
Will it result in the end of the reciprocity fee for US citizens? I just renewed my passport and thus lost my ability to travel to Chile for free (the reciprocity fee expires with the passport). If the reciprocity fee goes away, maybe that helps southbound traffic a bit.

When you pay the reciprocity fee at airport, do you get 10 year visa or is the reciprocity fee every time you visit Chile?
 
Cubsrule
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RE: US-Chile Visa Waiver Program: Effects For LAN?

Sat Mar 01, 2014 7:51 pm

Quoting AirDFW (Reply 22):
When you pay the reciprocity fee at airport, do you get 10 year visa or is the reciprocity fee every time you visit Chile?

The reciprocity fee is good for the life of the passport, whatever that is the first time you enter Chile on that passport.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
ghost77
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RE: US-Chile Visa Waiver Program: Effects For LAN?

Sun Mar 02, 2014 11:23 pm

Of course it will have an effect. More travellers ahead.

Positive for LAN.

g77
Ricardo Morales - flyAPM - ¡No es que maneje rapido, solo estoy volando lento!
 
ETinCaribe
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RE: US-Chile Visa Waiver Program: Effects For LAN?

Mon Mar 03, 2014 4:29 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 17):
I know for a fact that the DFW-SCL and ATL-SCL flights make their money on cargo and not passengers.

Are these in the SCL-US direction as in fruits/veg or the other way around? I see LAN Cargo has a very large operation here in MIA with their 767F and 777F. I assume many of these are also related to the horticulture exports, is that correct?
 
LAXintl
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RE: US-Chile Visa Waiver Program: Effects For LAN?

Mon Mar 03, 2014 4:41 pm

Chile reciprocity fee is dropped effective immediately.

US Citizens No Longer Required to Pay Chilean Reciprocity
http://www.digitaljournal.com/pr/1766961

=
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
descl
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RE: US-Chile Visa Waiver Program: Effects For LAN?

Tue Mar 04, 2014 4:23 am

I remember reading some time ago that Delta expectes an increase of 20% on its traffic to/from Chile thanks to this visa issue; so it cearly has an effect in demand.
 
timpdx
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RE: US-Chile Visa Waiver Program: Effects For LAN?

Tue Mar 04, 2014 6:00 am

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 26):

Yes! I am going to Santiago for a short holiday at the end of this month and can use the savings!

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